SB Nation User Blog: upper left corner

Guess who has the highest PER for the Blazers? Hint, it isn't who you think.

upper left corner — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 13:36:36 -0000

I know you are probably thinking Brandon Roy, with a current PER of 21.06. You would be wrong. The highest PER on the team through last nights game with a PER of 27.52: Jerryd Bayless.

Yes, you read that correctly, Jerryd Bayless, who struggled last season with a PER of just over 8, has a current PER of 27.52. Obviously, this stat doesn't mean too much when he has only played 23 minutes in two games. It does however, suggest that folks should take a look at their assumptions about Bayless. We have heard it endlessly from Bayless' detractors, "He will never be a Point Guard. He is nothing more than an undersized Shooting Guard, who can't shoot."

Follow me across the break to discuss what Bayless is doing, and what it might mean for the team.

Bayless' taste of success:

I, and a host of other folks, have been arguing that Bayless has real potential. Bayless is a born scorer, with an excellent chance to become an outstanding combo guard and perhaps even more. His ability to get to the rim and draw fouls, gives him an opportunity to become an extremely efficient scorer. At the moment, his True Shooting % is an outstanding .679, which puts him ahead of every PG in the league not named Chris Paul. All last season, and all summer long, I argued that the moment Bayless got his new shooting stroke figured out well enough to perform in games, he would be a load to defend. If you play up on him he will blow by you, if you sag off he will shoot over the top. Obviously, it is too early to make any sort of definitive statements, but based on what we saw in pre-season and what we saw in Bayless first two regular season appearances, it seems clear that his shot is much better.

Perhaps even more important, Bayless' decision making shows signs of improving. Last season you could almost watch the gears turning in his head. His attempts to be a PG messed with his ability to score. He often hesitated and the offense frequently bogged down. Last season, Bayless seemed to have two modes: "distribution mode" where he tried to get assists, and "scoring mode" where he put down his head and took off for the basket. This season, early indications are that Bayless is more comfortable on the floor. He is starting to take what the defense gives him. When help comes on his drive to the basket, he is trying to find the open man. When he is open on the perimeter, he seems to have the confidence to take the jumper.

Much of the credit for Bayless' taste of success should go to Rudy. Rudy and Bayless are sharing playmaking responsibilities when Bayless is in the floor. To my eye, Rudy and Bayless are an excellent combination. Bayless isn't a proficient enough distributor to effectively run the team by himself, but he is more than just a "SG in a PG's body." Bayless is starting to learn to use his ability to penetrate to set up teammates, in some of the same ways Roy does. Bayless has 5 assists in 23 minutes of PT. Certainly, that doesn't mean that he has "arrived" as a point guard. Bayless is a work in progress, but I think we can see the potential. Rudy's passing ability helps keep the second unit from becoming stagnant and one-dimensional. When Rudy finds his range on his outside shot, they are going to be incredibly difficult to defend.

Opinions vary greatly regarding Bayless' defense. Two things seem indisputable, Bayless is better equipped to stay in front of opposing PGs than either Blake or Miller. Bayless has better speed than either Miller or Blake, and more strength than Blake. Some like Bayless' aggression on defense and like the fact that he is able to put some pressure on the ball. Others point to his foul rate and say he is overly aggressive and that this leads to cheap fouls and getting burned by penetration. I think both sides are right. Bayless does get called for a lot of ticky-tack fouls. Part of it is just like Oden, being a young guy who has not yet established himself in the league and who does not get the benefit of the doubt on many whistles. Part of it is just a need for experience on the floor. Bayless will learn what he can get away with, and what he can't, with more time. I don't think it is disputable that perimeter defense, in general, and PG defense, in particular, is a major area of concern for the team. Many of us have been harping on this for several seasons. To me, Bayless has the tools and the commitment to become a good defender, and the sooner the better. If Bayless can at least slow down some of the uber-quick PGs we are likely to meet in the playoffs, that would be a huge benefit to the team.

What, if anything, does this mean for the team?

Again, obviously it is way too early to draw any conclusions about Bayless' play. Twenty three minutes of PT, with eighteen coming against what is probably the worst team in the league, can easily be "overvalued." On the other hand, I don't think what Bayless has shown should be dismissed. So far, Bayless is our most efficient scoring option off the bench: better than Rudy, Trout, or Webster. 18 points in 23 minutes with a TS% of .679 is nothing to sneeze at. At a minimum, it screams for additional playing time to see if Bayless can sustain anywhere near this rate of production.

So where do you find minutes for Bayless, given that the Blazer's roster is more stacked than Dolly Parton? To me, the answer is pretty obvious. Bayless needs to remain paired with Rudy in the second unit. I have serious doubts about the current three guard starting line-up. I hope this is merely a transitional phase to help blend Roy and Miller. I don't see that Blake brings much to the table that can't be provided by Webster. Webster is shooting 38% from distance. Webster provides better rebounding, better defense, and ultimately I think Webster's ability to run the floor will be a great match with Miller and LMA in the starting five. I also think Roy should probably play at his natural position. In Nate's offense, the SF tends to stand in the corner, I don't want our best player marginalized.

The Blake Factor?

So if Webster eventually returns to the starting line-up (or Nic, down the road), what do you do with Blake? Nate's obvious reflex will be to move Blake to the second unit and move Bayless back to the bench. I think this would be a huge mistake. Blake is a bad fit with the second unit. He is lousy at pushing tempo, and his outside shooting is redundant next to Rudy (or Martell). Rudy will benefit from having a penetrating PG who can kick the ball back out to him for open threes. Trout will also benefit from playing next to a penetrating PG. To me, Bayless is a much better fit with the second unit than Blake.

Furthermore, it makes a lot more sense to play Bayless for the long run. The Blazers know that Blake is not likely to be the starting PG on a championship caliber team. The fact that they brought in Miller is a tacit admission of this fact. Miller will likely be done in 2-3 years. Will Blake, at 32 or 33, be the guy to take the reigns back? Obviously not.

If you acknowledge that Miller is a better PG, and a look at career stats and the last two games should make it extremely obvious, Blake is ultimately nothing more than a back-up PG, who is in the way of any potential long-term answer at PG. Even if you hate Bayless, or just think he will never be a PG, Blake is in the way of the development of any young PG the Blazers might draft or trade for.

As everyone knows, Blake's contract expires at the end of the season. The team has three alternatives:

1) Let Blake walk at the end of the season. This alternative allows the team to retain Blake's steady hand and outside shooting for the playoffs, but means we get nothing of value for a guy who is a solid, back-up quality, veteran player.

2) Extend Blake's contract. Does it make sense to keep Blake as the back-up beyond this season? If you do, you are either going to bury him on the bench as the 3rd string PG, or he is going to continue to block Bayless' development. If Blake is willing to sign for cheap, he would be a nice guy to keep on the roster, but if he wants anything like market value, he would be a very expensive, luxury tax inducing contract. Particularly given that the Blazers decided to keep Patty Mills, extending Blake doesn't make much sense to me.

3) Trade Blake's expiring contract. Trading Blake at the deadline makes a lot of sense, if Bayless continues to perform in the second unit next to Rudy. Bayless is likely to be a better defender and a better scorer by then. By the trade deadline, Patty Mills should be back in action as an emergency back-up and the team may have a better idea of his potential. Blake's contract could be combined with Trout's to bring in another quality big man, or could be traded by itself for a player or draft pick.

Conclusion

I think Bayless has shown enough to warrant more time on the court. He and Rudy show promise as a backcourt tandem who can compensate for each others weaknesses. If Bayless continues to produce at anywhere near his current rate, I think Bayless is the smart choice for the teams back-up PG minutes. If Bayless establishes himself by the trade deadline, KP should seriously consider trading Blake. Steve is a great guy, and a solid player, but his skills are too limited for him to be the starter, are a poor fit with the second team, and he is in the way of developing an answer to the teams long term need at PG.

Bayless is still a question mark. Is he just a scorer off the bench? Is he a useful combo guard who can score efficiently, defend aggressively, and distribute adequately? Or is he our "PG of the future," the guy who can ultimately slip into the starting line-up next to Brandon Roy? I don't know the answer, but I think Bayless has shown enough that the team needs to find out.

Conventional Wisdom Be Damned, Blazer's Window Is Open.... NOW!

upper left corner — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 21:11:54 -0000

Note: After posting this Sunday afternoon, I couldn't sleep Sunday night, so I decided to expand on some of my thoughts about expected improvements. I added a 3A and a 3B, as well as 4A. Thanks.

Conventional wisdom in sports is often more about trying to avoid the embarrassment of being wrong, rather than taking the risk of being right. What I mean is that most sports writers and commentators are inclined to look to the past to predict the future.

This tendency is very much on display in numerous articles making predictions about the upcoming NBA season (for example, read the ESPN series which polled nearly 50 "experts."). LA and SA have each won four titles in the past ten years. So the vast majority of analysts are ready to pick one of these two to come out of the WC next year. In the East, Boston won two years ago, Cleveland had the best record last year, and Orlando made it to the finals, so each has their advocates. Certainly, this point of view makes a lot of sense. These are five good teams with proven talent and a record of accomplishment in the playoffs. It makes sense to pick these guys as the odds-on-favorites to do it again. However, in the real world last years winners are not always next year's best teams. How many expected the Magic to win the East? Almost no one. Who predicted that Denver would make the WC Finals? Almost no one. Sportswriters rarely have the courage or insight to predict that a team will win until it already has.

This brings us to our beloved Blazers. The conventional wisdom is that they will be good, but that they will not win in the Playoffs until..... well until, they win in the Playoffs. Need I point out that this sort of reasoning is rather circular? ESPN's panel of experts predicted the Blazers to finish third behind LA and SA in the regular season. But not one person predicted that the Blazers would win the WC. By contrast, one pundit each picked Dallas and Denver to win the West.

Marc Stein, who publishes the ESPN Power Rankings, was even less generous. He ranked the Blazers ninth in the league, behind the big three from the east, and behind not only LA and SA, but also behind Denver and Dallas in the west.

To me, this kind of thinking is both short sighted and cowardly. I think the Blazer's championship window is open, now. That doesn't mean that I think they will win this year. It does mean that I think they have a reasonable, if small, chance. It does mean that I think the Blazers will be among the league's elite this year and in the mix come next spring. I see LA and Cleveland as the favorites, but I think the Blazers have as much chance as the second tier of Boston, San Antonio, and Orlando. Make the jump to read my reasons why:

1) Many analysts are failing to appreciate just how good the Blazer's where last season.

Hollinger's Power Rankings, which are based on stats rather than subjective criteria, had the Blazer's third at the end of last season. A lot of pundits seem to feel that the Blazer's "overachieved" last year and they speculate that the team may have trouble living up to last year's 54 wins. The data suggest otherwise, the Blazer's point margin actually suggested that the Blazer's could have been expected to have an even better record. As has been frequently noted, the Blazers had the most efficient offense in the league and ranked at or near the top in rebounding percentage. These kinds of stats are rarely fluky and tend to be very predictive of future success.

2) Season stats from last year tend to mask the Blazer's improvement over the coarse of the season.

The Blazers of November were not the same team that finished the season 19-6 in March and April. Portland was right there with Cleveland and LA in terms of dominance over the last month of the season. This reality tends to be overshadowed by the Blazers elimination by the Rockets. But the Rockets were a particularly bad match-up for the Blazers and should be given real credit for taking the Lakers to seven games without Yao.

I think it is reasonable to expect that the Blazers of this season will look more like the team from April rather than the team from November. Portland's improvement was particularly noticeable on the defensive end. The Blazers ranked 18th in defensive efficiency at the All-Star break and had improved to 11th by the end of the season. In order to move up that much, that quickly, they must have been near the top five over the last couple of months. Oden's return from injury was a big part of the team's improvement. I expect the Blazers to open this season defensively near where they finished it last season. If they do, there is little doubt that they will be among the league's elite teams from opening night on.

3) The Blazers have a lot of players who can be reasonably expected to improve

Jscot did an outstanding job of laying out the case for rational exuberance in his "Da BOM" post. I won't waste your time, or mine, by repeating it. Suffice it to say, there is every reason to expect that a number of the Blazers young players are likely to be better this year than last. We don't need miraculous improvements to move ahead, just the natural maturation that can be expected of most young players. Furthermore, the team has so much depth, that we don't need improvement from every player to be significantly better overall. We just need some of our young guys to take the next step:

3A) As many have noted, Oden is key to the Blazers improvement

A lot of the speculation about Oden tends to be binary: is he a bust, or isn't he? Will he stay out of foul trouble, or won't he? Will he he get his quickness back, or won't he? On one hand, these all seem like reasonable questions. On the other hand, they miss the mark. Oden is likely to improve marginally in several areas; the real question is to what extent will these marginal improvements add up to a significant improvement in his overall effectiveness?

I see the Oden Equation as something like this: 5% reduction in body weight + 5% improvement in vertical leap + 5% improvement in lateral quickness + 10% improvement in conditioning + 20% improvement in confidence + unknown improvement in offensive technique = a much more effective GO

We won't know the final value of the equation until we actually see it on the floor, but I think there is every reason to be optimistic.

3B) SF: Webster/Batum

We will never really know how much Webster's injury affected the Blazer's performance last year. I had high hopes for Martell last season, and felt he was ready for a break-out season. Reports from pre-camp practices give me hope that the break-out may still be coming. On the other hand, Batum far exceeded expectations and demonstrated that he has all the tools to be an effective defensive specialist. Nic's offensive potential remains an open question. He shows lots of potential, but has not yet shown consistent production on the floor. Despite Batum's promise, the Blazers paid a real price for playing him last season. He was frequently a non-factor on offense, and his presence on the floor with Pryz and Blake left the Blazers with only 2 1/2 scorers on the floor (Roy, LMA, + Blake from outside). As Houston demonstrated in the playoffs you can make a team with only 2 1/2 scorers really struggle.

With the return of Webster, the arrival of Miller, and the emergence of Oden, the Blazers have the ability to put five effective scorers on the floor at the same time. If those five are working effectively together, they are going to be extremely difficult to stop.

Hopefully, Nate will now have the luxury of choosing between a defensive SF Batum, who can score, or an offensive SF Webster, who can defend. If we need to cool off an opposing player, send in Batum. If we need additional scoring, send in Webster. Over time, one of the two will establish themselves as the more effective player.

4) A lot of folks don't seem to realize just how good Andre Miller is, nor what a difference he is likely to make.

Miller isn't Billups. Billups is a couple of years younger, is a bit better defender, and has a significantly better outside shot,; however, they do have a lot of similarities. Both are very crafty veterans with very high BBIQ. Both are extremely poised and play within themselves with a firm grasp of their own limitations. Both are outstanding floor generals who know how and where to get the ball to teammates.

I know that a lot of folks are rightfully appreciative of the role that Blake played in the Blazer's success last season, however, make no mistake about it, Miller is a very substantial upgrade. Miller ranked 12th among all PGs in terms of PER at 18.71. 12th makes it sound like he is "pretty good, but not great." If you look a little closer, you will like what you see. Miller is within a single point of ranking 6th, while more than a point above Sessions who is ranked 13th. Furthermore, other metrics suggest that Miller is even more valuable. In terms of "Value Added" Miller ranks 5th, only behind All-Stars CP3, Parker, DWill, and DHarris. Miller also ranks 5th in "Estimated Wins Added" behind the same four All-Stars. Miller is actually above Billups, Nash, and Rondo in both these metrics.

Yes, Miller is definitely getting old, but his production shows no sign of decline. His PER and TS% have both improved each of the past two seasons. Even his 3pt percentage (on a very limited number of attempts) has improved somewhat. Many have questioned whether Miller is going to be a good fit next to Roy because of his limited abilities as an outside shooter. This is definitely a legitimate question. We won't know until we see them in action, but I think looking at Miller's experience next to Iguodala, should be reassuring to all of us. Iggy is even more of an off the dribble player than Roy, and yet he and Miller both prospered together in Philly. I think it is reasonable to expect a few bumps as Miller and the team get to know each other, but there is little doubt in my mind that Miller makes Portland much better for the next year or two.

4A) Backup PG

Not only is Miller a very significant upgrade over Blake, Blake is a significant upgrade over Sergio and Bayless 1.0 at backup PG. Just as Oden's arrival had a huge impact by solidifying our center rotation and reducing the number of minutes we were reliant on LMA or Frye playing center, Miller and Blake solidifies our PG rotation.

Furthermore, I am probably in the minority on this point, but I think there is a real chance that Bayless may yet earn some minutes this season. Bayless struggled in three areas last year shooting, team defense, and effective distribution of the ball on offense. Having said that, because Bayless was so effective getting to the rim and the free-throw line he still scored at an effective rate per possession. If Bayless can find his shot, and the Blazer shooting coach singled him out for praise, he can be a very effective offensive option. The bigger question is whether or not he can improve his defense. It seems to me that this is Bayless' real opening. PG defense is likely to remain a real weakness. Neither Miller or Blake have the speed to stay with the league's uber-quick PGs. If Bayless can demonstrate to Nate that he can become our best PG defender, he may earn some minutes. Regardless of whether it is Blake or Bayless 2.0, the back-up PG situation is likely to be dramatically improved.

5) The key to the Blazers success in the playoffs is home court advantage

I expect the Blazers to approach or exceed 60 wins. I realize that many are less optimistic for various reasons. I have to take this opportunity to give our Fearless Leader, Dave, a bit of a hard time. If my memory still serves, last year Dave, who is always concerned about inflated expectations, predicted 46 wins. The team blew that cautious prediction away. I understand that 60 is a challenge, but barring major injuries to one of the big three (or now big 4) I think it is very realistic to think the Blazers can achieve that level of success.

I fully expect the Blazers to win their Division, and I think it is even conceivable they could challenge the Lakers for best record in the Western conference. The Lakers have more older players and less overall depth. One injury to one of their top rotation players, and the door may be open for the Blazers. If the stars align correctly, the Lakers could be coming to the Rose Garden for the WC Finals. Wouldn't that be something?

Again, I am not saying that the Blazers are favorites to win it all. Their lack of playoff experience clearly makes them underdogs, but they are underdogs with a lot of bite. At this point, I think the Lakers and the Blazers are arguably the two most talented teams in the Western Conference. By the time the playoffs roll around, SA will have 7 players over the age of 30. If they all stay healthy, they may be in the discussion, but that is a very big if. Denver had a magical season and lost a couple of key reserves. Dallas also has a lot of older players and still lacks a decent center. NO just doesn't have enough quality players to complement CP3.

Anything may be possible, but I think the smart money is on LA and Portland in the WC Finals. LA's huge advantage in experience would make them a significant favorite, but I think in terms of talent, the Blazers are the only team in the conference who could give them a real run for their money.

Conventional wisdom may argue that the Blazers are at least a year away, but I think there are plenty of reasons the Blazers deserve to, at least, be in the discussion. If I am prophetic, remember, you read it here on the eve of training camp.

The "Bayless hate" on this site, and on "95.5 the Game," is totally out of control

upper left corner — Sat, 25 Jul 2009 14:23:58 -0000

Bayless' critics seemed to be emboldened by SL and by the Miller signing. The number of dismissive and even ridiculing comments has just spiraled out of control. Are these comments justified? Was Bayless' performance in SL so bad? Is the Miller signing an indication that Bayless is on his way out of town? My answer to all of these questions is a resounding "NO." I acknowledge that there are very real questions about Bayless' future and legitimate concerns about his game, but we seem to have a collective case of jumping to conclusions based on very little information. Let's discuss this after the jump.

Three weeks ago before SL, while there was considerable disagreement about Bayless, there did seem to be a majority view which saw Bayless as a top young prospect with outstanding physical skills, a gift for scoring, a tremendous work ethic, and an uncertain ability to develop into an adequate distributor. I would argue that nothing has happened in the past three weeks that should have changed any one's opinion about Bayless.

Summer League's Great Expectations

Bayless' performance in SL confirmed what we already knew. He is physically gifted. He reconfirmed his ability to score, and shot better from outside than he did last season. He is an aggressive defender who needs to pick his spots in order to avoid picking up ticky-tack fouls and allowing his opponent to beat him off the dribble. Bayless averaged about 17 pts and 4 assists per game. What seems to have set off the rabble is the fact that folks expected him to have more assists and fewer turnovers. The fact that he didn't meet crazy expectations, and had turnover problems is now taken by many as "proof" that he "will never be an NBA PG."

I would strongly argue that Bayless was placed in a situation where he was almost bound to fail. In a very perimeter oriented league, he was given almost no one to pass to. The two SGs were something like 3-23 for the first three games of Summer League. The starting SF was a defensive specialist with a very limited offensive repertoire. Cunningham was essentially the only other scorer on the team besides Jeter who was backing up Bayless for the first three games.

In response to pointing out these very obvious facts, Bayless' critics have argued that it wasn't so bad. As evidence to support their claim, they point to the fact that Jeter, had a slightly higher assist total per minute than Bayless. My response is pretty simple: of coarse Jeter "looked better" as a distributor. Jeter was a four year starter at PG in college. He has been fairly successful in two years in Europe's top league. Jeter is far more experienced than Bayless as a distributor. Bayless had one year of college where he played out of position as a SG. He played only 600 minutes last season, and many of those were not at the point. Bayless is "very raw" as a distributor. It showed. Jeter is never going to be the defender or scorer that Bayless will likely become.

Certainly, many hoped that Bayless would show more in SL. However, the response of many fans has been a gross overreaction. Listen to Coach Prunty's comments on Courtside over at the Blazer website. He specifically said that he was very surprised that so many people had been so concerned with Bayless' stats. He went on to say that Bayless needs experience making PG decisions about when to pass and when to try to score.

I remain astonished by the number of people who seem to think that the court vision and recognition skills needed to make these decisions effectively are some kind of "mystical gift" that can not be practiced or improved. Part of being an effective PG is knowing your teammates and where they need the ball to be effective. The Blazers SL team practiced for a total of three days, and yet a couple of handfuls of turnovers are taken as "undeniable proof" that Bayless "will never be an NBA point." Such a notion is, frankly, absurd.

Miller Time

Now let's turn to the signing of Miller. What does this tell us about what KP and Nate are thinking? Of coarse, none of us can be sure of anything, but it seems likely that signing Miller is a case of KP wanting his cake and eating it too. He is trying to improve the team for the short term while still believing that Bayless is a good prospect for the long term.

Media reports suggest that KP had an opportunity to get Hinrich, but was unwilling to part with Bayless. Hinrich would likely be a better fit than Miller because of age and defense. The fact that he passed on Hinrich for Miller suggests that Bayless is still very much in his long range plans. KP also chose not to pursue Sessions. Bringing in another young PG would have been a vote of "no confidence" in Bayless.

KP likely hopes that Bayless can be talked into remaining patient this year while he works on his game. If Bayless shows rapid development, KP may even look to trade Blake's expiring contract prior to the trade deadline. If Blake is still critical to the teams success, he will decide what to do next summer. If Bayless demonstrates sufficient progress he is likely to become the heir apparent when Miller leaves.

Summary

I don't expect that anything I have written is going to change any one's opinion regarding Bayless' future. Everyone has a right to there own opinion. I would ask folks to at least think before heaping abuse on Bayless. You may not see his potential, but KP and Nate appear to have a different opinion. Please consider the possibility that your judgements may have been a bit hasty or harsh. If Bayless were the "bust" that many have suggested, would he have been a consensus lottery pick? Would he have been SL MVP? Would we have been invited to Team USA development squad? Would KP have turned down Hinrich to keep him? At least consider the possibility that he may have a future. Whether or not he becomes an adequate distributor, remains an open question. Any one who presumes to know the answer, at this point, is engaging in hubris.

Why our cap space next year isn't the same as RLEC last year

upper left corner — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 03:20:23 -0000

I have read several references to RLEC in recent days. Those who feel strongly that the team needs to make a move, and make it now, seem to be arguing that waiting to use our cap space until closer to the 2010 trade deadline is analogous to last seasons failure to make use of RLEC. Basically, the argument is something like this, "don't talk to me about all the bargains that are going to be available as the trade deadline approaches, I heard that line last year and nothing happened. Get a deal done now!"

I see your point, and I feel your pain, but there are several reasons I think the current situation is different than the situation last February. Let's break it down and discuss after the jump.

Let me begin by saying I am not an expert on the cap and luxury tax. If any of you "capologists" out there think I am missing relevant info, please chime in to the discussion.

Here is a list of reasons why I think the two situations are different:

1) Lower cap and tax threshold for next season: In February 2009, there was a lot of economic uncertainty, but the actual pain is going to be very real next season. The cap and the tax level both came down between $1-2 million for next season. My understanding is that teams can go into the season above the tax level without actually having to pay the tax, as long as they reduce salary before the 2010 draft. This reality is likely to put pressure on several teams to dump salaries during the season.

2) Expected sharp drop in cap and tax for 2010-11: More significantly, the league released estimates for the cap and tax thresholds for next summer. The cap is expected to drop significantly by about $7 million dollars. This reduction is likely to be the 800 lb gorilla of teams financial moves next year. Many teams are going to need to reduce salaries or face large tax consequences the following season.

3) As everyone knows, next summer has a huge free agent crop: Teams are going to need to shed salary to position themselves to have sufficient room under the cap to compete for these marque free agents. New York, New Jersey, and Chicago are three teams that are expected to try to be in the hunt for LeBron, Bosh, Wade, etc. Because the cap is expected to fall significantly, these teams need to shed salary if they are going to offer max deals to these superstar FAs.

4) In addition to cap room, the Blazers have two quality expiring contracts: Both Outlaw and Blake are in the final year of their contracts. This means the team can potentially package one, or the other, or both, with the cap room to take back a very large contract. Blake and Outlaw are each at about $4 million per year. The Blazers will have about $9 million in cap space once the season starts and the cap holds for the Euros are lifted. Packaged together, that means the team could take back a whopping $17 million contract. Other teams are more likely to do a deal if they are getting back decent players in the short run. It is a lot easier to get your fan base to accept a salary dump of a big name player, if you are getting back Blake or Outlaw, rather than a corpse like RLEC.

5) Teams have to walk a fine line between being competitive and being financially prudent: Before the season begins, every team is a winner, every team at least harbors illusions of being competitive. Teams need to nurture this fantasy in order to get season ticket holders to renew for the upcoming season. This is particularly true for the worst teams, in the smallest markets, under the most financial pressure. Trading away players now, may have a real cost at the ticket office. By February, illusions of improvement will have faded and the grim reality of losses on the floor, and on the balance sheet, are likely to be pressing on numerous owners.

With its combination of cap space and quality expiring contracts, Portland is uniquely positioned to take advantage of the realities of the current economic situation. The cap and tax reductions are tied to overall league revenue. The reason they are expected to drop significantly next summer is because revenue is expected to be down sharply this season. Reportedly, the Blazers have the highest percentage of season ticket renewals in the league at over 90%.

Many teams are likely looking at a very grim revenue picture. Ticket sales are only one piece of the puzzle. Luxury suite sales are down as corporations are cutting back. Broadcast revenue is down because broadcasters are hurting for ad revenue. Merchandise sales and concession sales are off sharply as consumers try to cut back on non-essential expenses.

Summary: Given the combination of factors outlined above, I think the Blazers have a much better chance of finding a willing partner for an unbalanced trade this year than last year with RLEC. I am not a huge fan of trade scenarios, because of the highly speculative nature of most of the discussions. I am a fan of discussing the Blazers strategic situation. My feeling is that KP and team management are taking the right approach. They tried to go after their #1 FA target. Now, having been stymied by factors beyond their control, they are taking a patient approach; waiting for the right deal to come along.

Poll

How confident are you that Blazers management is taking the right approach with the teams cap space?

Absolutely, in KP I trust.

162 votes

Kinda, sorta, I'm not happy, but I am willing to go along for now.

130 votes

KP screwed up and missed his opportunities, now we have no choice.

23 votes

Heck no, fire KP immediately, and hire me to be the new GM!

5 votes

320 votes | Poll has closed

Discussing Failure

upper left corner — Sun, 12 Jul 2009 15:50:42 -0000

Quick has said KP is dealing with "failure." Canzano has said this summer has been a "disaster." Fan anxiety is at record levels for the KP era. What are we to make of such hyperbolic language? Are those who defend KP, "blind homers"? Have the team's aspirations for a Championship taken a big hit?

Let's discuss after the jump.

What follows is a lengthy comment I wrote in another Fanpost thread. Someone commented that I should make this a Fanpost, and I am taking them up on the suggestion:

"Turn off Canzano. Step away from the radio. Put down the newspaper. Everything is going to be OK.

I appreciate you baring your anxieties, but think you and many others are grossly overreacting.

What has actually happened this summer? Did the team make a bunch of lousy draft picks? No. Did the team make a bunch of lousy trades? No. Did the team overpay for for FAs? No.

Let’s actually review what has happened, as opposed to what has been rumored:

DRAFT: The Blazer’s draft strategy was to pick up as many useful players as possible without tying up cap space with a bunch of first round draft picks. They were rumored to be targeting Hansbrough, but it didn’t work out when he was picked earlier than expected. They used their first pick on a talented Euro who many believe will be a quality player down the road. They maneuvered to get two of the top three picks of the second round, and picked two four year college guys that they think can contribute. They got a potential diamond in the rough in Patty Mills.

ANALYSIS: Slightly disappointing that they didn’t get their targeted player, but these things happen when you are drafting in the bottom third of the draft. The jury is out on the guys they did pick, but they executed their strategy which was to preserve cap space.

FREE AGENCY: They had a plan.

1) They targeted Turkoglu because he is a very skilled player with experience who could address team needs for scoring and play-making. They made their pitch and everyone thought it was successful. Hedo changed his mind because of factors completely beyond the control of the Blazers, Stuff happens. This is more of a reflection on Turk than on team management. Move on.

2) KP worked the phones and looked at his options. He passed on some players who might have been useful but that he apparently didn’t think would fit the time line or were not big enough improvements to warrant pulling the trigger. He seems to have tried to work a three way deal with Chicago and Utah. When the price, Bayless, was too high, he decided to force Utah hand by going after Millsap. He cooked up an offer that is hard for Utah to match, but that is reasonable enough that we will be happy if they don’t.

ANALYSIS: It is too bad that the Turk thing didn’t work, but that was a mixed blessing anyway. They gave it their best shot, and can’t be blamed for the fact that it didn’t work out. They didn’t panic. They made a savvy move for Millsap, and if it doesn’t work, they will still be one of the few teams left with cap room. The team may be able to get some of the remaining FAs at bargain basement prices, or they are well positioned for lopsided trades as the trade deadline approaches.

CONTRACT EXTENSIONS: We know very little. It is quite possible that Brandon is asking for an opt out clause and the the Blazers offered a four year deal as a way to negotiate for a later opt out clause. Even in the worse case scenario, where a deal doesn’t get done, the Blazers will be in position to match any offers. As Dave suggested in his front page piece, they need to show some spine because they are going to have to sign extensions for a slew of players over the next couple of seasons. Nothing indicates that the team is unwilling to pay Brandon what he is owed. LMA will probably wait until Brandon gets his deal.

ANALYSIS: It is very early. We know very little. Obviously Brandon’s agent is applying pressure by going public. Canzano and Quick are fanning the flames of fan anxiety. Frankly, I will be extremely surprised if this is not resolved in the next month. In the mean time, there is no need to panic.

SUMMARY: Absolutely nothing has gone wrong, a few things have not gone right, but nothing major has gone wrong. KP has made zero bad moves. Some may argue that he has missed opportunities in the draft or the FA market, but KP’s track record as an evaluator of talent has been very good. Until he shows a pattern of bad decisions, KP certainly deserves the benefit of the doubt.

Patience is a good thing. If the trade deadline comes and no moves have been made, that will be a serious mistake, but right now the basic economics of the league suggest that the longer we wait and the fewer teams able to provide cap relief, the more talent we will get for our money."

ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS: What happens between now and the trade deadline is very important to the Blazer's future. Once we go over the salary cap, talent acquisition is going to be much more difficult. However, the Blazer's Championship aspirations are much more dependent on the development of the talent we already have under contract than the acquisition of one or two additional players.

There is a big difference between being stymied on a potential move, and making the wrong move. Being stymied is cause for disappointment, it is not cause for panic. Failure is making the wrong move. Failure is trading away young talent for an older player in decline. Failure is grossly overpaying for FA talent. The Blazers are still in the hunt for improvement, as hard as it is for fans to be patient, patience is the smart move, patience is the right move.

It is all about the Blazer's sophomores

upper left corner — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 15:55:05 -0000

It is time to take a break from all the endless speculation about the draft, free agents, and trades. Let's talk about something that really matters: the development of the teams outstanding collection of sophomores. I would argue that the development of these four guys is a lot more important to the teams future than any single player we may acquire with our cap room.

What follows started as a response to Dave's front page piece. It just got too big to post in that thread. I realize that it is generally bad form to duplicate front page material in a Fanpost, but I have been thinking about making a post along these lines for some time now. Hope you all understand, and hope this provokes some good discussion. In particular, I am interested in hearing other peoples takes on the chances that our sophomores will grow up to be the big men on campus. More after the jump

Fifteen years from now when we look back at this era of the Blazers, I think we will see that the future of the team rested on the shoulders of our four sophomores. At this point, we know who Roy and LMA are, we may not know exactly how far they will develop, but the general outline is there for all to see.

What is less certain is the development of our four sophomores. If everything goes well, and all four reach their full potential, the Blazers are likely to be a dynasty. Batum, Rudy and Bayless can each answer a huge question mark for the team:

1) Batum: Nic could become our lock down perimeter defender, the guy who can slow down Kobe and LeBron and the other future superstar perimeter players (Durant?). Offensively, he could be as limited as Battier, or he may exceed Prince. If he does, he will provide a scoring compliment that will make it nearly impossible for teams to double LMA and Roy. Batum's success will mean success for both Roy and LMA. He doesn't have to ever become a 20 pt scorer, he just needs to be a constant threat, a guy who can score opportunistically and who can find his open teammates.

Chance of becoming a top perimeter defender and solid spot-up shooter: 85%

Chance of becoming a good scorer and play-maker in addition to the above: 60%

2) Rudy: he could become a top flight sixth man. A guy who who is such a good shooter that you dare not leave him open for a second. The kind of player who is an assassin off the bench with his ability to get open and hit the three. Think of Rudy as our potential Reggie Miller. The other team knows he is going to shoot the long ball and tries to stop him, but he is so good working off screens and shoots with such a quick release, you just can't keep him from getting his shot off.

The question with Rudy is that it is unclear whether or not he can add other components to his game besides the long ball. So far, Rudy doesn't seem to have enough size and strength to get to the rim very often. He is not good enough off the dribble to get enough separation to shoot a high percentage from mid-range. A few pounds of muscle certainly wouldn't hurt. A better handle would help as well.

Given his lack of strength and his, mediocre by NBA standards, lateral quickness, Rudy is unlikely to ever be more than an average defender. Rudy is 24, and has been a pro for 6 years. He is much closer to his ceiling than the other three sophomores. To my eyes, Rudy has less potential to become a truly outstanding all around player than the other three. However, because of his extraordinary potential as a shooter, his flare for the game, and his relentless energy without the ball, he is an extremely valuable commodity. Great shooters are a rare commodity. Great shooters who understand when to shoot and when to pass are even rarer. Rudy didn't set the rookie record for threes by chance. Rudy's potential ceiling as an all around player may be lower, but he is, by far, currently the most skilled of our sophomores.

Chance Rudy becomes a quality sixth man, providing energy and outstanding spot-up shooting off the bench: 90%

Chance Rudy becomes a top sixth man, and an all-around scorer off the bench: 50%

3) Bayless: By far the most controversial of the four. Some see him as nothing more than a undersized SG with a broken shot. Those with this view want to trade him as quickly as possible. Others see him as "the point guard of the future," a sure fire bet to devour the league. My own take, expressed ad nauseum, is cautious optimism.

Bayless played a total of 600 minutes last season. His season stats are poor, but I think the season stats are misleading. They include a high percentage of garbage time minutes, a fair amount of minutes at the SG, and even a fair number of minutes where Bayless effectively played the SF role in a three guard line-up. During the one stretch of fairly decent minutes where he actually played the point, his PER was over 15, his FG% was 48%, and he averaged about 4 assists on 20 minutes of PT.

Regardless of whether or not you regard Bayless' performance last season as a case of the glass being one third full, or two-thirds empty, we should not forget who this guy is. Bayless was a McDonald's All-American. He was recruited by Lute Olsen to be the PG at PG University. He was expected to be drafted between 4-8 in last years draft, and it was a minor miracle that he dropped to us at eleven. Most evaluators believe that if he had waited till this year, he would have been top 5. If we had just gotten him, we would be salivating.

How he got to be so controversial is interesting. Many of the complaints and negative evaluations of Bayless that get thrown around come from those who preferred Sergio's game. These folks naturally looked at Bayless with a built in negative bias. Fortunately, there is pretty strong evidence that Bayless is viewed differently by team management. Sergio is gone. The team did not trade up to grab another PG in the draft. KP singled out Bayless as a guy he thought would make a huge leap over the summer. Bayless was invited to return to the Team USA development squad with the big three. Obviously, Bayless is still viewed as a truly outstanding prospect by those who know the most.

If Bayless finds his shot, he is going to become a multi-threat offensive force: able to penetrate at will; strong enough to finish a high percentage at the rim; able to stop on a dime and elevate for the jumper off the dribble; able to shoot a decent percentage when left alone on the perimeter: or able to drive past a recovering defender. Roy described defending Bayless in practice as being like defending D Wade. Think about that comparison for a minute. As a defender, Bayless has the strength, speed, and aggression to, at least, become an above average defender. I think it is just a matter of time on the court.

The real question with Bayless is can he learn to run a team? And, assuming he can, how long will it take? This is the caution part of my cautious optimism. Some guys figure it out, some guys don't. Bayless does not appear to be selfish, nor uncoachable. He is smart and a relentless worker. To me, I think he has a good chance to succeed, but it makes sense for the team to not put all of its eggs in Bayless' basket.

Chance Bayless becomes an effective multi-threat scorer and above average defender: 75%
Chance Bayless becomes the above and becomes an adequate distributor: 65%

4) Oden: Why save Oden for last? Because Oden is by far the most important. If one of the other three fails to live up to their potential, the Blazers will have a significant role to fill, but the teams future success will not be endangered. Oden is the fulcrum on which the teams future will be determined. If Greg becomes the dominant rebounder and defender we all hope he will be, and if he develops one or two good low post moves to compliment his put-backs, the Blazers will be challenging for titles for as long as the big three are wearing Red and Black.

It is pretty simple: dominant big men are the rarest commodity in basketball, and because of their position on the court, they are involved in a huge percentage of plays. If Greg becomes dominant, everything else will become easier.

Chance GO becomes at least a 14 and 12 center, who is a defensive force: 90%
Chance GO becomes a dominant scorer on top of rebounding and defense: 60%

Is the glass half full, or is it half empty?

upper left corner — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 15:36:39 -0000

Crazy days here at B Edge. Half the inmates are on the verge of calling for KP's head. At least half seem to be upset at the prospect of Turkoglu in black and red.

Has KP suddenly lost his touch?

On one hand, the ambivalence, and even anger, seems understandable. Most of us went into the off-season believing that the teams top two priorities were an upgrade at the point and at back-up PF. A few were advocating for more scoring from the SF position, but most were willing to develop Nic and Martell. Furthermore, most of us were more concerned about improving the teams defense, rather than trying to improve its already efficient offense.

Given this context, it is not surprising that many have leaped to the conclusion that our once brilliant GM has suddenly lost his mind. Spending all our precious cap space on a slow, 30 year old SF, who is at best inconsistent on the defensive end, doesn't seem like a very good idea. I understand this reaction.

Maybe a bit more humility would be advised

On the other hand, it is pretty surprising that so many B Edgers have been so quick to abandon the good ship, HMS Pritchard. After all, KP has compiled a truly outstanding track record over the past three years. It flat out amazes me how many fans are quick to substitute their own judgement for KP's. Personally, I am happy to admit that KP knows a heck of a lot more than I do. He has access to far more information than any of us. He is the guy with the "golden gut" who has been so successful at identifying talent and figuring out how to get it to Portland.

I may not know what the plan is, but I am sure that KP has one. KP seems to be playing three dimensional chess when most GMs are playing checkers. I don't want to get too carried away in my praise, KP puts on his pants one leg at a time, just like the rest of us. It is possible that he can make a mistake, and it is even possible that he could make a very large mistake. However, given his track record, doesn't it make sense to give KP the benefit of the doubt? Rather than criticizing every move that we didn't anticipate, why don't we try to understand his strategy as the moves unfold? Criticizing KP seems like the height of hubris.

What is the deal with Hedo?

As I mentioned above, Hedo seems like the answer to the wrong question. We need defense and improved play at PG and PF. My guess is that KP concluded that he couldn't really improve our PG situation through Free Agency. The top three PGs are 36, 34, and 32 years old. Given the every increasing number of uber-quick, young PGs in the league, those guys are extremely likely to struggle on the defensive end.

After thinking about it for the past couple of days, I think Hedo is an excellent example of KP thinking outside of the box. If you can't find a traditional PG, then how about addressing a need for more play-making by acquiring a point forward? If you throw out the position labels and start thinking about team needs, Turkoglu starts making a lot of sense in a hurry. Team needs:

1) Playoff experience: more than the rest of the squad combined;

2) An additional scorer who can get his own shot and perform under pressure;

3) Reduce the teams over-reliance on Roy's isolation moves;

4) An additional play-maker who can get easy shots for his teammates;

5) A player who can run the pick and roll effectively:

Hedo is "Trout Plus." He can score like Trout. He can spread the floor like Trout. He can take big shots like Trout; but he can also do much more: he can bring the ball up court, he can drive to the hoop, above all, he can set-up his teammates. Turkoglu has an extremely high BBIQ. Unlike Travis who often stopped the movement of the ball, Hedo is a consummate set-up man.

KP: "Above all else, Hedo is a player who will make his teammates better"

This is the money quote. What does KP mean? I think it is likely that he means the following:

1) Hedo helps Roy: by providing another ball-handler and scorer Hedo takes weight off of Roy and makes it harder for teams to double. If Roy is handling PG responsibilities, Hedo can bring the ball up-court.

2) Hedo helps Greg: Hedo is going to get Greg easy scoring opportunities off of good passes and the side pick and roll. D Howard is not much better in the low post than Greg, and yet he is scoring nearly 20 pts a game. Much of the credit should go to Hedo.

3) Hedo helps LMA: opponents often sagged off Nic to double LMA. They won't be able to do that now.

4) Hedo helps Blake: Hedo will draw much more defensive attention and more spot up shots for Steve.

5) Hedo helps Bayless: Bayless will have an easier time getting on the floor for minutes with the starters with Hedo able to shoulder some of the distribution responsibilities.

6) Hedo may even help Batum: Hedo may help mentor Nic on the offensive end and help him learn how to become our next generation point forward.

7) Hedo will help Rudy: by shouldering some of the play-making duties, Hedo may make it possible for the Blazers to play with Roy and Rudy together in the back-court.

The only players who will not be helped are Trout and Martell who are likely to see their minutes substantially reduced. If Hedo is signed, Trout is almost certainly gone. Webster is a big question mark, and the team really can't count on him until he proves the foot is healed.

All in all, I think Hedo is a brilliant, if unconventional, solution to many of the teams needs. Yesterday on Wheels at Work, the Sacramento play by play guy said that he was certain that Turkoglu would put the team over the top. I think that sounds about right. If that is the future, we make look back at this as one of KP's best moves.

Whistles and Wins: Cause and Effect

upper left corner — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 16:17:05 -0000

Dave, your write-ups are amazing, but I have to question your basic premise on your write-up to last night's game.

You seem to be arguing that the Blazers played a different style of play and that led to a difference in the way the refs called the game. I think it is far more dynamic than the kind of linear cause and effect that your write-up suggests:

The tone of this game was far different because the Blazer big guys were not whistled for ticky-tacky, off-the-ball fouls that put them in early foul trouble. The Blazers shot better because they were ahead rather than behind. In each of the first four games there were almost no calls against Houston and lots of free throws for Houston. The Blazers got behind and they got a bit tight.

In the fourth quarter, when Houston was ahead by four, how did the Blazers get back in the lead? They didn't do it by being aggressive and taking it to the hole; they did it because the refs whistled Houston (Landry and Lowry) for several early team fouls which put Houston in the penalty early in the quarter. The Blazers made five straight FTs to regain the lead.

I know it is very "uncool" to complain about the officiating. Anyone who does so is immediately labeled as a whining homer. I get that. I also understand that a game like last night seems to automatically soothe the ruffled feathers of the fans who think their team is getting screwed by the zebras. Everyone in Portland was up in arms about the officiating; we get the benefit of a majority of the calls last night and suddenly every thing is hunky dory.

I'm not buying into the collective amnesia that seems to have settled over the board. I suspect that this was a "make-up game." Just like there are "make-up calls" in individual games, this looked like a "make-up game" in a series that has been called in a manner that has consistently put the Blazers at a disadvantage.

I predicted last nights game in a comment I wrote yesterday morning. I will take the liberty of quoting myself at length:

"Officiating rarely determines the outcome of a game, but it does set the tone. In a series between two fairly evenly matched teams, that tone goes a long way in determining the outcome of individual games. When the tone is consistently set in favor of one team it goes a long way in determining the outcome of a series.

Portland has gotten almost no calls in the first quarter of every game. Houston plays more physical defense but has been whistled for fewer fouls in every game except in game two when their intentional fouls in the last minute overcame the foul disparity. Portland’s starters have consistently struggled with foul trouble, while most of the fouls called on Houston have been their role players. Roy is the only Blazer who has gotten to the line, and for every call he gets there is another play where there is substantial contact and no call. Yao leaves his feet, hammers people with his body and gets no call. When they do call fouls inside they assign them to anyone other than Yao.

The disparity is real. The reason for the disparity is harder to figure. Perhaps it is just the “star system” protecting Yao. Perhaps it is making a young team “pay its dues.” Perhaps it is part of a larger pattern of giving the benefit of the doubt to larger market teams. I don’t know. Generally, I am very reluctant to sign on to conspiracy theories, but given the history of the last twenty-five years and some of the treatment of small market teams like Portland, Sacramento, and Utah, I don’t think the possibility can be dismissed out of hand. There is a ton of dough at stake, and history has shown that the ratings are much stronger when large market teams are involved. Given the current economic climate, I think the temptation to “gently encourage” large market and marque match-ups is very real.

Again, I don’t know, and I am not pretending that I do, but it would be naive to not consider the possibilities.

Prediction: Portland will be treated fairly tonight and will win game 5. More games = more revenue. Balancing out the calls will make complaints seem unjustified.

I love the game, and I love the Blazers, but I think the lack of consistency in officiating calls the integrity of the league into serious doubt."

My prediction looks pretty good with the benefit of hindsight. I would hypothesize that there is a large-market bias and marque match-up bias that are subtly and consistently encouraged by the league. I don't think it requires a giant conspiracy. I think a few subtle conversations and careful assignment of referees is all that would be necessary to introduce and maintain this kind of bias.

Over the last twenty-five years the results are consistent with such a hypothesis. Look at who has won: Chicago (6), LA (6), Boston (3), Detroit (3), Houston (2), Miami (1). All are top ten markets. The only exception is San Antonio (4) which is a somewhat smaller city but is from a the third most populous state in the country.

I realize that speaking the unspeakable will subject me to ridicule. So be it. I am not saying that I think the league is fixed. I am suggesting that institutionalized bias based on financial incentives is a hypothesis worthy of discussion.

If my hypothesis is correct, the Blazers are likely to get hammered by the refs in Game Six. Yao vs. Kobe. Houston vs. LA. The #4 market vs the #2 market, with 1.2 billion Chinese thrown in for good measure.

I hope I am wrong.

Where is Dave's vaunted restraint?

upper left corner — Tue, 17 Mar 2009 14:57:02 -0000

We all know how our Fearless Leader rolls; he is restrained. He doesn't get too high, and he doesn't get too low. He is reluctant to heap praise and even more reluctant to hurl criticism.

So imagine my surprise when I read his comments about our back-up PGs in his recap of the Memphis game. Dave pulled his seldom used rhetorical sledge hammer out of his back pocket and smacked both Sergio, and especially Bayless, around.

Now I will be the first to admit that I am not a particularly objective observer to this debate. Somehow I seem to have adopted the role as one of the prime Baylophiles around here. I have done so less as a matter of any great admiration for the current state of Bayless' game, and more as a reaction to my constant concern that our PG defense is truly lousy and a hope that Bayless might be the answer.

In any case, I feel compelled to respond to Dave's broadside. So Dave, what gives? Usually you are quite restrained in your praise and your criticism. Tonight is Bayless' first night in the back-up role, and you bash the Bejesus out of him??????

Bayless' spring is wound very tight under the best of circumstances. Tonight, he had to be feeling the pressure. He had to know that he would be under a lot of scrutiny in his new role. Being a point guard is about making decisions. Thinking too much and trying too hard are not conducive to good decision making.

Three points:

1) Sergio has been struggling mightily on defense. Bayless is better now, and will improve with time on the court. Over the past month we have seen several teams target Sergio. Having him on the floor is a defensive liability that teams will exploit relentlessly in the playoffs. If Bayless is less of a liability on the defensive end, he needs time on the floor now, to be ready to contribute during the playoffs.

2) More than half the time Bayless is on the court, Roy is playing point. Bayless is essentially playing SF on offense. He goes and stands in the corner. Given that his shot is under reconstruction and he is obviously not comfortable shooting from the outside, this doesn't seem like very good use of his skill. Obviously he needs to find his outside shot. The best hope for that is to give him regular back-up minutes so that he can relax a little.

3) Obviously, this is a difficult time to make a change in the rotation, when every game counts and every mistake is magnified. But the bottom line is that Bayless needs time on the floor to gain confidence and to learn. In my mind, now is better than later. Next year the stakes will only be higher. I think Bayless showed he can play during the time Blake was out. He just needs to figure out what role Nate wants him to play.

Both Bayless and Sergio have struggled since Blake returned. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that both have been feeling the pressure and both have failed to find a groove in very limited minutes. Something had to be done. Nate chose defense over offense; I think that is the right decision. Give the kid a few games before you leap to conclusions.

Dazed and Confused

upper left corner — Thu, 26 Feb 2009 15:11:30 -0000

I hate it when fans start whining and moaning every time the Blazers loose a couple in a row. I also hate it when fans start grinding on Nate, if we loose, it means Nate has screwed up rotations, or he doesn't know how to teach defense. You know the drill: blah, blah, blah.

All that being said, I feel compelled to WHINE. I claim no great expertise in basketball, although I have been watching the Blazers since the days of Roland Todd and Geoff Petrie. But, for the past two seasons, the thing that has stood out to me is the defensive struggles of Portland's PGs. Time and time again, I have watched Blake struggle to stay in front of the quicker PGs in the league. In order to keep from getting consistently torched off the dribble, he stays so far off his man that he can't pressure the ball, can't cut off any passing lanes, and can't contest jumpers.

Sergio is option two. His defense in years one and two was simply atrocious. He has improved significantly, but he still consistently struggles. I would rate his defense as about a toss-up with Blake's. Blake seems to have better position, but lacks lateral quickness. Sergio has somewhat better quickness, but is frequently out of position or caught leaning the wrong way.

The last two nights were like a spotlight illuminating these weaknesses. First, Aaron Brooks drove by Blake with astonishing ease. If Brooks had a better finish, he could have scored 40. As it was he scored 20. Brooks wasn't super efficient, but that had more to do with his outside shooting than anything Blake did to slow him down.

Then last night, Parker torched Blake in the first half. Nate barely even tried putting Sergio on Parker, a few possessions and it was clear that Sergio was not the answer. In the second half, Nate tried Batum and then Outlaw, mostly to poor effect.

All of this poses a simple question: where was Bayless? Few would contest the observation that Bayless is the fastest and strongest of the teams PGs. Sure he is green and would have likely been burned at least a few times. But good grief, when you are getting killed, why not give the kid a shot at slowing Parker down?

At a minimum, last night seemed tailor made for Bayless' offensive repertoire. Parker is not a great defender, and with no Duncan in the middle, why not see if Bayless can get to the rim? Let Bayless push the pace and see if he can get some transition buckets or get to the line for some easy points?

I don't think any of this is rocket science. Certainly, any observer of the team had to be asking the same questions. I am sure that the Blake and Sergio fans take this as validation of their view of Bayless' readiness.

Bottom Line: Either I am badly mistaken in my observations of our three point guards, or my faith in Nate's competence is badly shaken. Again, I am no expert, but am I that wrong? Are Blake and Sergio playing better defense than I give them credit for? Are my perceptions of Bayless totally off? Or is our coach guilty of malpractice? I have to believe my own eyes. Last night marks the first time I have had serious doubts about Nate, as a coach.