Hey Humans! We clams have awoken from our winter nap and all of the Bay of Biscay is abuzz in preparation for this Most Beautiful Race. As usual, please disregard the meat grinder located just pass the finish line with the tube extending out into the bay to spray fine nutrients for all us bivalves to snack on. Better than popcorn!

The early handicapping suggests a two-man sprint to win between Phil and Al.

6 MONTHS HUMANS! THE BIVALVES ARE EXCITED!!!!

Admit it. The other day when the VDS competition was opened it was like Christmas morning as you opened the rider price list. There you were, slowly going down the list from expensive to cheap, hoping that you'd find your favorites at a great price. You started at the top, trying to guess if Phil-Gil was worth 36 points. Certainly-if he has another season like last season; but can he repeat that? Hmm.

Moving down, you saw Bert at 30 and mentally put that away until you heard the ruling. J-Rod, Cance, and the Tour winner at 26? Interesting...Manx Missile at 22? Seems a bit high but if he ever puts a complete season, it could be worth it....Whoa! Green Bullet at 22 too? (All sorts of visceral reactions to that one from Get That $#^%@#er Out Of My VDS! to There's My Captain!

By now in the back of your mind there's this vague notion that Someone Is Missing but the list is so interesting you can't yet ID who...Two kids at 20...clearly the VDS Eds want me to pay through the nose....18 pointers all sort of similar...Someone's Definitely Missing...16..Schlecks, Big Bird, Bobo, The Testosterone Tootise..14....Greipel, eh? WHAT THE HELL WHERE IS HE WHERE IS MY MAN WHERE OH GOD IS HE DEAD I CAN'T BREATHE I HAVE HIVES DOES LORE KNOW DOES SHE I HAVE TO HIT VIEW ALL ONLY BAD RIDERS NEED VIEW ALL GGGGGGGGGGGAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH...12 points and then you see it, right below Jurgen Roelandts and on top of the Little Bald Nugget:

37.

OPQ

PRT

Tom Boonen

12

580

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I just got to get this out there. If you think Burfict is a good pick in round 1 or 2 then you just don't understand the guy. His mental um processes make him barely able to survive in college and he is totally unable to handle the subtleties of being a pro football player.

I just can't think of another player who is so extreme at both ends. He has a Grade A+ body and a Grade F mind. And it is not a mind that will just learn from Lewis how to be a pro as various writers are saying. This isn't a Jimmy Smith or even a Pacman Jones type of problem. This is more of a there's-not-any-wattage-upstairs type of deal. He's just not smart enough. Just look at some of the "expert" mockers out there you can see that some of them are beginning to see this. They are getting past that wonderous body and seeing that his cheap shots are both not easily correctable and that there's more to it than simply misguided passion. Soon all the mockers wil see this. But let's look at a couple of quotes:

<a href="http://www.draftinsider.net/blog/?p=6055" target="new">From Draft Insider</a> while discussing the Senior Bowl:

<blockquote>Before the practices even started the conversation turned to Arizona State junior linebacker Vontaz Burfict. Separate sources, including one close to the program, told me Burfict’s decision to turn pro was likely centered around the fact he was looking at potential eligibility problems in 2012. Everyone I spoke with said Burfict’s struggles in 2011 are directly related to the fact teammate Brandon Magee never took the field during the season after tearing his Achilles in August. I was told Magee, a leader on the ASU defense, was the one who made sure Burfict was properly positioned on the field and made him aware of assignments. This further confirms my report from the Shrine Game last week where different sources told me, “It’s a matter of Burfict not diagnosing plays correctly if put to the test, amongst other things.”</blockquote>

Or better, this is from <a href="http://rob-rang.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/13682485/34179390" target="new">Rob Rang a couple weeks ago</a>:

<blockquote>Outgoing head coach Dennis Erickson characterized Burfict's junior season as "average." There may not be a more accurate way of putting it.

While Burfict certainly has the hype and talent to warrant leaving school early, quite frankly he's been a disappointment over the past two seasons.

For a player nationally known as an intimidator, Burfict only registered 69 tackles (including seven for loss) in 2011, along with one interception and one fumble recovery. He was not recognized by Pac-12 coaches as a first, second or even honorable mention player following his junior season. This is quite a drop from Burfict's 2010 season in which he led the team with 90 tackles and earned Second Team accolades. It is an even bigger disappointment considering that in 2009 he was named the Pac-10 Defensive Freshman of the Year.

Burfict is explosive. He can rock ball-carriers in the hole, is particularly adept rushing the quarterback and plays with a ferocity that could quickly make him a fan favorite. As you'll read in our official NFLDraftScout.com profile for Burfict, there are plenty of aspects about his game that translate well to the next level.

However, he has been prone to immature behavior that has cost his team penalties at critical stages of games throughout his career. He's not as instinctive as his reputation might lead you to believe, has a soft build and hasn't shown any real improvement since first stepping onto the ASU campus.

As such, he's currently ranked third in our rankings of inside linebacker prospects.

Quite frankly, I think he's as overrated a prospect as there is in the country. He may prove me wrong. He certainly has talent to do so. However, Burfict won't soon get added to my ranking of the top 32 prospects in the draft. Burfict, in fact, wouldn't make my list if the Big Board contained twice as many players. </blockquote>

What happened with Burflict's year with Az St is that the opposing Pac-12 offenses learned that they could simply scheme him out of the game because he's simply not smart enough. That's what the two people I've quoted are saying. Burflict doesn't have a problem like someone who smokes too much dope or got arrested with a DUI. He just doesn't have the ability to understand the subtleties of the game. He is easily confused and that was the reason why his coach benched him. Just wait for the combine and his interviews. Us Pac-12 fans know that he is an awful interview: Ryan Mallet on a real bad day awful. We may pick up a LB in round 1 or 2 but once the Raven's get to talking with him, they will know that he's radioactive. I wouldn't pick him before round 6.

Sports-livez

Historic race, a bit down on it's luck. Will The Shark set up his Vuelta defense with a win? 

Txirla here! What? You think you can just eat me and that's it? Stupid humans.  I'm not a simple geoduck from Hood Canal.  Let's look at the basics of the race on the jump.

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First the part you won't read then blindly criticize in the comments: Rick Gosselin is the most accurate major mock drafter type going. The best. He does three mocks. I posted the first the other day, which is all about BPA. This last mock is his real one. That said being the best means although you correctly pick all but a few of the players going in the draft you only correctly match the player with the right team about a third of the time. Unless you pull a great mock out of your ass which Gosselin does every once in a while. He can get uncanny. So on the jump is his mock

And for the Ravens he picks JJ Watt!  How can that happen?  Main reason: Gosselin has 5 quarterbacks taken in round 1 ahead of the Ravens. This pushes a couple of the many defensive linemen down, specifically Bobo Quinn almost slides to us and Watt does. Prince Amukamara is also a victim of the quarterback surge and Jimmy Smith gets picked by Philly-before  Amukamara, which makes sense if you are okay with Smith's drug use and thus realize that Smith is a better on the field CB than Amukamara. Take a gander:

1. Carolina - Cam Newton

2. Denver - Von Miller

3. Buffalo - Marcell Dareus 

4. Cincy - A.J. Green

5. Arizona - Patrick Peterson

6. Cleveland - Julio Jones

7. San Fran - Blaine Gabbert

8. Tennessee - Jake Locker

9. Dallas - Tyron Smith

10. Washington - Christian Ponder

11. Houston - Aldon Smith

12. Minnesota - Andy Dalton

13. Detroit - Nick Fairley

14. St. Louis - Mark Ingram

15. Miami - Mike Pouncey

16. Jacksonville - Ryan Kerrigan

17. New England - Cam Jordan

18. San Diego - Corey Liuget

19. New York Giants - Nate Solder

20. Tampa Bay - Robert Quinn

21.KC - Gabe Carimi

22. Indy - Anthony Castonzo

23. Philly - Jimmy Smith

24. New Orleans - Adrian Clayborn

25. Seattle - Prince Amukamara

26. Baltimore - JJ Watt

27. Atlanta - Phil Taylor

28. New England - Danny Watkins

29. Chicago - Marvin Austin

30. New York Jets - Derrick Sherrod

31. Pittsburgh - Cameron Heyward

32. Green Bay - Aaron Williams

As we here know, the labor situation has become awfully fluid, awfully fast. There's a real good chance that the lockout is permanently lifted right now, and right when the league is gearing up for the draft. From my vantage point, the owners are having a difficult time adjusting to losing this latest court skirmish and that means that there might not be a clean end to the lockout. 

With such a chaotic situation, the teams that can react quickly and adjust their strategies will have a crucial advantage in the next couple of weeks. There has been a lot of talk about how different this draft is what with free agency coming sometime after it and how that affects team strategies. Now it looks like free agency might be starting sometime during the draft or very soon after. Teams won't be able to take their time and assess the situation for a month like they are used to.  Teams will be asked to react in four different team building directions (drafting rookies, signing rookie free agents, trading veteran players, and signing veteran free agents) practically at once if the Stay is not granted.  Given that many teams make big mistakes in all of these areas in a normal year, asking them to do all these things practically at once should show which teams have good front office personnel and who doesn't in ways that we never imagined.  Some teams could really get fleeced this spring between drafting poorly and not reacting right when free agency opens up. They could be set back by years as a result. 

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At least to our leader Bruce Raffel as he has the Ravens picking....you guessed it....Jimmy Smith!  Do I hear wailing and gnashing of teeth? Has Gosselin descended to idiot status? That's your call.

I'll paste Gosselin's picks below but the thing that stands out to me are three things:

1) Just two quarterbacks selected in round 1. Newton and Gabbert.  And with all the talk lately that 5-6-7 QB's might get taken in the first round, Gosselin is bucking the hype. My guess is at this point he is thinking that all that talk is a smokescreen and most QB needy teams will wait their turn in round 2 to select their QB. 

2) Which gets us more to the point of this first mock by Gosselin: its intent is more to show a rough grading order of the players. The better players are picked first-outside of the two QB's. And this is important when he gets to pick 26 as the pick of Smith there makes sense compared to who is picked after: Smith is definitely the BPA on the board at that point. 

3) But perhaps the most important thing I see here is that Gosselin has his mock ordered in what could be called a Classic pattern. For instance normally the best OT's go off the board very early, even sometimes at #1. A great left OT is worth his considerable weight in gold-and that is exactly what they get paid.  DL's are slightly less valued and in addition pass rushers are more of a hit or miss thing-relatively more draft busts are DE's OLB rush guys than say OT's. So you will see some OT's in this mock going higher than most mocks have them taken. But do note that he is not promoting the OT's blindly as he has only 4 going in round 1. No Sherrod is picked here. Or Ijalana. Again, no reaching here. 

The same is true for CB's (three in this mock) and RB's (two taken here). Both are traditionally highly valued positions and Gosselin is treating them as such.  

Expect Gosselin's second and third (last) mock to have some trades and some reach picks as he zeros in on particular teams. Will he stay with just two QB's picked? If not and he adds a few QB's,  we may see some DE's dropping to 26 and providing some competition for Jimmy Smith at 26. 

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With al the talk naturally centered on the first several rounds,1-5, and our major needs, WR, CB, OLB, ILB, OT, OG, maybe RB, there's also the need for us to bolster our QB depth. We gotta figure that Mark Bulger is looking to start somewhere else next year so it is important for the team to look for a free agent vet QB and probably a rookie developmental guy. So let's go over the possibilities shall we? Since the draft is coming first this year, let's start with that.

First, I am making the assumption that none of the first two tiers of QB's are NOT Ravens targets simply because it would entail a 1st or 2nd round pick. Probably we wouldn't even spend a third rounder on a QB either. If so then the following QB's are not on the Ravens radar: Newton, Gabbert, Locker, Mallett, Ponder, Dalton, Kaepernick, and probably Stanzi. That leaves a bunch of late round or free agent guys: Greg McElroy, Tyrod Taylor, Pat Devlin, and T. J.  Yates, seem like the most likely (but not a sure thing) to get drafted late. The list of undrafted QB's of course is long.  So who would you like to see the Ravens draft-or do you think they can pick up a decent developmental guy in free agency? Or perhaps you think we can get away with just two QB's again-Flacco and a decent vet backup?

Next are the veteran free agents, at least one of whom you gotta think that Ozzie already has his eye on:

Matt Moore, Todd Collins, Caleb Haine, Brady Quinn, Drew Stanton, Kellen Clemens, Bruce Gradkowski, Tyler Thigpen, and some others. No, I am not listing either Troy Smith or Kyle Boller : for both their Ravens ship has sailed and they have no chance in returning. 

So what is your overall strategy in finding one or two QB's? 

The situation: the top of the draft is loaded with teams that have a big to desperate need for a new QB. 

The problems these teams face are twofold:

1) The lockout means both no free agency or trading to get on the market veteran QB's like Kolb, Bulger or Young and no draft day trades that involve current players to move up or down the draft. Yes, teams can wait till free agency eventually opens up again but you gotta think that by that point the price for a legit veteran QB will be even higher than they are now.  

2) There are thought to be only two high first round QB's truly worth the investment: Newton and Gabbert.  (Not that I would draft either...)

So several teams are gonna make their first round picks not filling a critical need on their team.  They will be desperate to reach for a QB in round 2. The chance that there will be several bidding wars for teams hoping to move back into the end of the first round is close to 100%. Ozzie and Co. without a doubt will be fielding offers for teams wanting to trade up to #26. 

First, who are these teams? A casual scan sees Carolina, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Arizona, San Francisco, Tennessee, Washington, Minnesota, and Miami all looking to pick a QB and only two of those will get Gabbert or Newton. Seattle later on might also be QB shopping. Let's say Carolina takes one since they have no 2nd round pick.  They know all decent QB's will be gone by round 3.  Let's say Cincy takes the other. That leaves Buffalo, Arizona, San Francisco, Tennessee, Washington, Minnesota, and Miami.

Now let's say one of Minnesota, Washington, Miami or Seattle, further down the draft order, reaches for Jake Locker. That leaves just Ponder, Mallet, and maybe Stanzi, Dalton, and possibly Kapernick remaining for the seven remaining QB-needy teams. Now some of these QB's are thought of more highly than others. And just as obviously the QB teams lower on the draft pecking order like Minnesota or Washington will have to be thinking that they need to leapfrog several other teams to get the QB they want. That means pick #26 will be in play.

So if you are Ozzie, what do you demand in trade?  Let's hear some scenarios, including specific picks you would demand of any of the specific teams! To help you all out, here are the picks these teams have in the draft starting with their 2nd round picks. Below the first number is the draft round and the second number is the pick in that round:

Buffalo: 2.2, 3.4, 4.3, 4.25, 5.2, 6.4, 7.3,

Cincinnati: 2.3, 3.2, 4.4, 5.3, 6.2, 7.4

Arizona: 2.6, 3.5, 4.6, 5.5, 6.6, 6.21

San Francisco: 2.13, 3.12, 4.11, 4.18, 5.10, 6.9, 6.25, 7.7, 7.8

Tennessee: 2.17, 3.13, 4.12, 5.11, 6.10, 7.9

Washington: 2.9, 5.13, 5.24, 6.12, 7.11

Minnesota: 2.11, 4.9, 5.8, 5.19, 6.7, 7.13

Miami: 3.15, 4.14, 5.15, 6.14, 7.15, 7.16

Of course any trades could well be more complicated that just a trade between the Ravens and another team. Like when we got Flacco which took two trades to position ourselves, we and/or another team might trade multiple times so by the time we do pick the pick(s) might be different from any of the picks listed here. 

Honestly IMO the pickings from these teams are not all that attractive. None of them have multiple 2nd or 3rd round picks. Do you demand a 1st rounder from the '12 draft besides anything from this draft? 

I don't know about you but one of the interesting things about this year's draft from the Ravens' standpoint is that there are all sorts of positional needs for the team but especially for round 1, they could go in any of several directions.  When you look at lots of mock drafts you see that diversity playing out: it is quite easy to find multiple mocks where we select offensive tackles, guards/centers (Mike Pouncey specifically), cornerbacks, defensive ends, outside linebackers, and wide receivers. When you get to round 2 mocks you add in inside linebackers too. Truly, the Ravens can take the old BPA approach and not go wrong. 

In that light I am finding it more interesting these days to look at the various Big Boards as opposed to mocks and especially Mike Mayock's Top 30. Why? Two reasons: First because it does seem like some of the Ravens' best 1st round picks have been players who have slid to them. Second, because if the Ravens do really go BPA then they will probably be drafting a player who slides down to them, a player ranked anywhere between 15-25 on various Big Boards. So below I want to look at a few of those players who: a) do look like prime candidates to slide because most mocks have them being picked lower than #26 even though Mayock's Big Board has them higher ranked, and: b) any players who lots of mocks say we might pick but are ranked lower than #26 on Mayock's Board. So, on to the players:

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I don't know about you, but this GC fight is at as good as the Giro's and Tour's. And we've had a vintage year of Grand Tour GC battles. Each one has been different:

-The Giro saw the Liquigas Power team vs Evans (with-surprise! a weak team) and the wild card of David Arroyo.

-The Tour saw the Bert vs Andy face-off, strong teams, and a strong supporting cast of mountain goats.

-Now the Vuelta has probably the widest pen battle. No truly great teams and probably four riders who feel they have a legit shot at the win: Vinny, J-Rod, Zeke, and the tragic Igor. Then you have Frank Schleck and Sastre pounding away, the Caisse four-pack of Bruse, Lulu, Arroyo, and Big Rig, plus the kids: Roche, the Good Velits, and Tondo. And I haven't even mentioned Special Guest Star Tom Danielson! I'm having fun; hope you are too. But I'll shut up now and let the Power Rankings do the talking. The number in parentheses is the rider's ranking in the pre-race Power Poll.

1. Vincenzo Nibali (1)

How he'll win: He's not the strongest climber of this race but he has two things in his favor: 1) he's easily the best chronoman of the top five meaning he could be anywhere from two  to four minutes ahead of the number two rider after the next stage, and 2) he has a team that can defend the lead until the end of the last climb on stage 20. Basically Vinny is doing what Contador did in the Tour with the threat of a rider who's a better climber: manage the race. Shorten the race. 

But will he win? Yep, probably. It all depends on that last climb on stage 20. Contador ultimately showed he could stay with Andy on the Tourmalet. Can Nibali do the same or at least keep it close enough? The odds say yes.

2. Joaquim Rodriguez (10)

How he'll win: First I am surprised that he is so good here. He's never done back-to-back Grand Tours and I am seeing no drop off from the Tour to here. Wow. But down to business. he can win by doing the opposite of Nibali: keep it as close as possible in the time trial and bust Vinny on stage 20. Simple, right?

But will he win? We've all seen the problem he has. He's a better climber than Nibali but when he takes off, he quickly goes into the Red so he has to a) attack late on climbs, and b) make only small attacks. So for him to have a chance he needs to keep his loses in the time trial to an absolute minimum. Given that this time trial is as flat as the Tour's and, yes, there will probably be wind, well, it's doubtful that he can pull it off. But his whole Vuelta has exceeded expectations...

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Koos Moerenhout (Rabobank)
Jos van Emden (Rabobank)
Lars Boom (Rabobank)
Sebastien Langeveld (Rabobank)
Steven Kruijswijk (Rabobank)
Laurens ten Dam (Rabobank)
Karsten Kroon (BMC)
Niki Terpstra (Milram) 
Koen de Kort (Skil-Shimano)

You basic spring classics team. No big favorites but you know a couple of these guys will be lurking near the finish.
 

We can spend hours and hours discussing the sprinters and how the Worlds RR affects the points competition. Also we can spend days and days wondering about how the GC competition is gonna shake out. In both instances that's good. Because when it comes time to discuss the KOM competition, until some other rider(s) show they can compete with the Big Dog, this competition is spelled M-o-n-c-o-u-t-i-e. 

Two time Vuelta KOM winner (the last two years) and Cofidis rider David Moncoutie wakes up from his pleasant spring and summer nap to roar up Spanish Mountains like a stealth bomber (picture of Moncoutie in his off hours). We know its coming, the whole peloton does, but that knowledge fails to stop the inevitable. 

At this point its good to admire Moncoutie's season.  Such highlights! Third at Turkey!  195th on one stage at the Giro! (I didn't know rider numbers went up that high.) A cool 139th on the decisive stage 19, the Mortirolo stage. Moncoutie's so cool at the Tour of Italy that he's catatonic. It's just the Tour of Italy, after all: why get bothered and sweaty? The Tour of France isn't even worth opening one's eyes for.

But come August, the sleeping giant wakes. He sharpens his claws on the Tour de l'Ain, taking third. Just the prep needed before pounding those 20% mountain grades in Spain in September. 

What's that you say? You wonder if his 2010 is showing some weakness? Hey-check out his 2009 and 2008.  Those two years he did actually ride that Tour of France. Why? Take in the sights as far as I can tell. France is a pretty country you know. 

But Spain is where he shines. And DO NOT mistake him for one of those silly Tour or Giro KOM champions. At the Vuelta he owns the KOM competition, not by taking a bunch of early stage cat 2 climbs only to fall 20 minutes back when the last HC climb comes into view. No siree: this David slays the biggest beasts. He goes toe-to-toe with the GC Bad Boys and beats 'em silly. 

But perhaps you are thinking someone else might win the KOM crown this year? After all Jens! didn't defend his Criterium International title. Maybe the world is truly changing and someone else is gonna win this year. On the flip I'll look at the main pretenders.

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What an interesting race we have here. But let's start with who we don't have. That makes it all the better.

On the flip I have my analysis of the GC race but before we get to that let's step back and see the field from a distance. 

- First the three biggest Spanish GC names are missing from the starting lineup: Contador, Valverde, and Samu.  That's huge and immediately makes the race wide open.

- Next, notice that two non-Spanish major GC stars are missing: Basso and Evans. The race just opened up more. 

So it's no surprise to me that the press is focusing on the several big Tour riders from July looking to fulfill their promise: you got two-time Vuelta winner Menchov,who was so strong in that final Tour TT. There's J-Rod and Lulu and Sastre. Then you have the Schlecks: Andy, the Next Big Thing in GC-land, who sort of holds a similar position in our imaginations as Cavendish does with the sprinters after the Tour: perhaps the best GC rider out there but he actually hasn't, you know, won a Grand Tour yet. Three second place finishes though! Could he really be riding for brother Frank? Sure! Why not! It's the Vuelta and it would be great if Frank could snag a Grand Tour win before its too late. Plus we know if Frank had not crashed on the cobbles surely the brothers would have worked over Contador and Andy would be in yellow...

Those are the big names for this race. But as you'll see on the jump, my podium has no Tour riders and while I see a a brand new Grand Tour winner stepping onto the top step in Madrid, it isn't either Schleck, or even a Spaniard. Instead we'll see an Italian, six months younger than Schlecket, who I think will become the second best GC rider of the current era take his first title: Vincenzo Nibali. 

The other two steps? Very close competition there and I go back and forth. I see six riders contesting the two spots: future teammates Menchov and Sastre, Zeke and Igor, Frank Schleck, plus in a real breakthrough to contender status, 24 year old Benat Intxausti. Everyone else is a cut below these guys except for maybe one of the several Caisse d'Epargne riders who might have a blinder. (But which one? It should have been baby Uran,  23 years old, but he broke his collarbone and his fitness is unknown.) 

I have other riders listed too but as I wrote this it hit me that this Vuelta is a preview of the future, what with all the talented youth on display-and we are missing because of injury 23 year old Bauke "Big Bird" Mollema. Nibali, Intxausti, Uran, Mollema, Kreuziger: these guys are gonna make the expected two-man dual between Bert and Andy a lot more complicated. The future looks bright for Grand Tour racing. So go to the jump to see my numbers explain what's gonna happen.

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Getting toward Business Time with VDS this year and you know what that means- a quick update of course and folks here laying the smack with what their team has got in the last huge VDS point haul of the year. )Of course the two Worlds races and Lombardia will shake things up too...)

So where do we stand?

-tgartner is looking to run away with the title. It looks close; he only has a 155 point lead over-gosh! Who is that cutie in 2nd place! Could it be? It is! 

ahem

Tgartner lead is only 155 points at the moment but look at his Vuelta squad: J-Rod, Lulu, Nibali, Kolobnev, Van Garderen, Dumoulin, Valls, Caruso, Cardoso, and Pauriol.  That's one serious team and IMO he should pull away from his nearest competitors over the three weeks unless they get awfully lucky.

But you, dear soul? You got anything to brag about? Here are some startlists: Cyclingfever, Cycling startlists, and oh hey! bonus! We also got the Cat 6 Tour du Poitou-Charentes stage race staring today that you can embellish your smack talk with. Here's the Cycling startlist for that one-if you have Anthony Roux, you just picked up 25 points for winning the first stage there. Chapeau!

So who you got?

It's late August; the transfer silly season is in full swing. But still the teams have their agendas, what they want to accomplish this year-and there's still some major items to tick off: the Vuelta, Worlds, and Lombardia. Paris-Tours, Emilia, and a whole bunch of smaller regionally focused races.  So let's look at the major teams and see how they've done so far and what they need to do in order for them to feel satisfied once that god-awful month of November reaches out and squeezes all our hopes and dreams into a pulp. 

A bit of explanation on how I am organizing things below. With each team I start off with four numbers (yea numbers!). 

- What the team earned in 2008 (using VDS points, naturally) along with team ranking in parenthesis.

- What the team earned in 2009, along with team ranking in parenthesis. So far so simple, right?

- What this year's riders scored last year. See the difference between this and what the team did in 2009? Just to be clear, take HTC-Columbia. Last year's team had EBH, Lofkvist, etc. This year's team is slightly different. It has the Velits' brothers, Teejay, etc. so the numbers in this third line includes these guys and not the Eddy Bo/Lofkvist group who are in the second line. I am including this number to see if with last winter's transfers has the team at least earned as many points as the individual riders on the team did last year. 

- The last number is what the team has earned this year to date-after Ouest-Plouay and stage 5 of Eneco, and their ranking for this year so far.

Okay, that was confusing I am sure. Let's get on with the teams staring with the best team of 2010:

1) Saxo Bank

-2008 points: 9050 (1)

-2009 points: 8640 (2) 

-What the 2010 riders earned in 2009: 6119

-Points earned so far in 2010: 6488 (1) 

Work to do: Just follow through. Cancellara should score at the Worlds and the Vuelta TT's. The big question is what the Schlecks, especially Frank, will do at the Vuelta. They haven;t yet shown the ability to focus over two Grand Tours in a row but perhaps Frank's early injury on the Tour will change that. Overall this team is in a transition year even without the Schlecks , etc., leaving, which is reflected in the several very young riders on the team. Obviously that will continue next year but IMO already this year is a success.  I could see them getting up around 8000 points for the year.

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Consider this a pre-GC prediction post. We need to see if a certain scenario-riding well in both the Tour then the Vuelta-is possible these days. We've been talking all year about this GC issue. Can a rider win the Giro than the Tour? Can they even be competitive in both? We didn't see it work out this year with some very good GC riders.  Can Contador seriously attempt a calendar year Grand Tour treble? How about if you throw the Vuelta in the mix. Is a Tour/Vuelta double possible? 

Let's deal with this Tour--->Vuelta issue now. 

There are several highly placed Tour riders this year who are looking at riding the Vuelta too. Both Schlecks, Menchov, Sastre, Roche, Lulu, Le Mevel, Vande Velde, Zabriskie, Kreuziger, Lofkvist, and probably a couple more. Are these guys just plain nuts? Are they riding with a couple of screws loose? 

So this morning I looked at a couple of things. First I checked to see if anyone has won both the Vuelta and Tour in the same year since 95, the year the Vuelta moved to September. Then I checked to see if anyone has podiumed at both since then. Finally I took the last five years (2005-2009) and saw a) what the top 20 of the Tour did in each year focusing on if they rode the Vuelta and how well they did, and b) I did the opposite: took the top 20 of the Vuelta to see if those guys rode the Tour and how well they did.  Confusing? It will get clearer on the break.

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THIS IS IT. THE END OF DAYS

The last front page stage raceageddon. We'll throw Portugal and Colombia to the fan posts after this. So what's on tap today?

- Burgos takes center stage today with a pre-Vuelta mountain stage that rivals anything that Suisse or Dauphine can serve up:

That finish there is the beyond category LaGunas de Neila and its gonna be fun. Notice the cat 3, two cat 3's ,and the cat 1 right in front of it, all in the last 55 km of the mountaintop finish. 

- Denmark is slightly less hilly today though with the Rascals prowling around, ready to strike at a moments notice it could get exciting too. But really Jakob Fooooooglesang has the GC sewn up.

- Portugal is finishing off its first week (they are dark Monday) with a mountaintop finish of their own, though I am not sure how mountain-y it is. See Cyclingfever's course profile and finishing last three km profile here.

- Colombia? How did the Tour of Colombia get into the Stage Raceageddon? By having video, silly. Check the links below.

- Finally, the Sparkys. Boys and girls. See Monty's preview, including course profile here.  The boys race is a cat 6 VDS gimme for Cav. The odds on team netAPP getting a VDS point? 3:1. Maybe there's video.

Okay, links:  

Cyclingfans. Steephill.tv. The new BVLS link. (Scroll down till you get to cycling.) My2p2. from SPORT.  And WorldliveTV.  Plus the linky to the Vuelta a Colombia is here. No doubt the Lady of the Links will have links to the race tickers too. Check the early comments for more info.

That's right! FIVE races on tap today! 

So get out your portable computational units, silence your kids, give the dog a juicy bone, dim the lights, and tell the neighbors to take a vacation because you got some major race juggling to do. Let's set the stages:

- Denmark starts the day off with TWO stages. Old Skool. Morning RR (think I'm gonna be there for that one? Ha!) and the afternoon ITT. The GC will shake out with today's stage-though tomorrow does have those climbs up the Tourmalet, Zoncolan, and L'Angrilu in store. Okay, you got me. But today is a good one. 

- Burgos has a fairly simple flattish stage. Three cat 3 climbs but they stop well before the finish. Klodo again? Pozzato with his Stashe? 

- Portugal's got a hella climb with two more skanky hills about halfway through the stage but they look like they tap out at about the 120 km mark and the stage is 174 km's long so there's lots of time for the peloton to regroup. Am I the only one who wishes this race had a higher profile?

- Poland has its last stage today and there's still some GC suspense left. Greg Bola is still threatening Dan Martin and with bonus seconds at the intermediate sprints and finish line of a flat stage and with Bola being a sprinter and Martin decidedly not, thinks could get dicey for Vaughters' boy. He might regret not dropping Bole yesterday.

- That leave the Citta di Camaiore, a hot little Tuscan number (near Pisa) that's also a cat 6 VDS one day race. As you can see by the startlist, we are talking about Italians galore. (And between this race and Burgos, practically any Italian racer who's anybody is racing today.) Who tends to win this race? A climber who can finish: what a surprise in Italy! Last year Vinny Nibali won by nine seconds over Leo Bert and 30 others. The year before Leo Bert won by 17 seconds over nine others. You get the idea. The main obstacle is the scuzzy Monte Pitoro which climbybike has a profile of here. Yikes! The peloton does that thing six times, the last cresting about 13 km before the finish line, thus making for a frantic attempt at a regrouping at the end. Here's the full course profile. 

Now for links, which umwolverine is gently taking me by the hand to do right:

Cyclingfans. Steephill.tv. The new BVLS link. (Scroll down till you get to cycling.) My2p2. from SPORT.  And WorldliveTV.  No doubt the Lady of the Links will have links to the race tickers too. Check the early comments for more info.  Thanks um!  If I could give you 1000 VDS points I would.

Speaking of VDS, we have 1050 points up for grabs today, 735 of them from Poland.

Wall-to-wall action today, but let's recap before we get totally confused:

- Denmark. That's the race where Topsport's Michael Van Stayen took a couple Jakob Fuglsang roundhouse punches yesterday to take command in round two. Round three today promises to be more of the same.

- Burgos saw that closing cat 3 climb separate Samu and Jiggy (sammy Sanchez and Jose Ivan Gutierrez) from the pack for a several second lead over a flotilla of riders.  Today's 21.3 km TTT on tap. The TT will set things up nicely for the climbing stage 5 finale on Sunday. 

- Portugal meanwhile saw Oleg Chuzhda of Caja Rural  escape for a 1:32 lead on GC over Candido Barbosa of Palmeiras Resort. Stage 2 today finishes with a big climb which is sure to shake and bak the field again. (Hey! Notice I got the stage number right um and the rest of ya?) 

- Finally Poland saw Dan Martin of shh-garmin TRANSITIONS (gotta give some respect to the second name of the team) take off on the final climb while his rivals wrung their hands in fear. He's got a 20 second lead over nine other guys heading into stage 6 and its razor sharp course profile including another uphill finish. With stage 7 being downhill to the end, today's stage will probably determine the final GC.  

As always check  Cycling Fans, Steephill.tv for links to viddys and tickers but most of all check the early comments for links that work, course profiles, book discussions, Albertina's work schedules, gardening tips, and other tangental-yet-crucial race day discussions because watching a race with friends is the best thing on the planet.

Most crucial stage today is Poland's where the GC hitters come out for the first of two days of play, hoping that no rift in the space-time continuum deposits the likes of Mosquera, Fuglsang, or Scarponi into their race. Riders in the other races of course are worried about Greipel or Farrar or Sagan messing with their fun. This could get interesting, if not totally confusing and we'll have the race tickers and vidy links to prove it.

BVLS, Cycling Fans, Steephill.tv and also check the early comments for other links.

Also! In the comments when you are talking about a race, state the race you are talking about. Otherwise you'll mess up the dark matter in our Local Group. 

ITS STAGE RACEAGEDDON!!!!!!! Can Matti Goss hold off Alessandro Ballan, Zeke Mosquera, AND Patrick Sinkewitz?  

Check BVLS, Cycling Fans and Steephill.TV for links to at least three of those races (not sure about video for Denmark) and no doubt folks will put ticker links in the comments.