SB Nation User Blog: usmcr3049

2012 Olympic Team without Roy/Oden?

usmcr3049 — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 20:53:11 -0000

Pretty interesting article linked from truehoop today. Truehoop said basically that tne New York Insurance company that insures all NBA contracts won't full insure L. Deng if he plays for his national team of Great Britain. The concern is over an old back injury that Deng had missed a few games over in a previous season.

So, applying this to the Blazers, I have to wonder if Roy or Oden will ever get a chance to play for the US National team in 2012 or any Olympic's because of their injury history. Also I wonder how K*be was allowed to play this year, with his current finger injury, or Yao with his still recovering leg injury.

Fox Sports Article about KP

usmcr3049 — Tue, 08 Jul 2008 20:01:08 -0000

http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/story/8324086/How-the-Blazers-got-back-on-track

Mike Kahn, over at Fox sports writes a nice piece about KP stratagies, the Blazers promise, and a break down of some impact moves.

"Blake, center Joel Przybilla (28) and forward/center Raef LaFrentz (33) are the only players on the roster older than 24, and the 6-11 LaFrentz is crucial because his contract of nearly $13 million is expiring after this season -- opening the door for either a trade or free-agent acquisition down the road. They off-loaded problematic Darius Miles with a bum knee and more than $27 million on the salary cap with what was ruled a career-ending injury. (And even if he does make a comeback, it won't count on the cap -- although Allen would have to pay the salary as opposed to insurance coverage.)

Clearly, it's all part of the master plan of eradicating the losing culture."

Rudy Prediction

usmcr3049 — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 18:58:59 -0000

With help from John Hollinger I have cruched the numbers (hopefully correctly) and came to a conclusion on Rudy's projected Stats are for next season, (not his 3rd season, but his rookie year). I used the info provided by the following websites:

2007-2008 ACB stats

http://www.acb.com/stsacumjug.php?cod_jugador=B0X

2006-2007 Euroleage stats

http://www.euroleague.net/competition/players/showplayer?pcode=BMT&seasoncode=e2006

John Hollinger's article on projecting euro players production in their first year in the NBA.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=3460365&name=hollinger_john

Here is a clip from John's article:

"The reason this works is that there's a predictable relationship between a player's stats in the Euroleague -- the highest level of European basketball -- and what they'll be in the NBA. Crossing the Atlantic does the following to a player's results:

• Scoring rate decreases 25 percent
• Rebound rate increases by 18 percent (there are more missed shots in NBA play)
• Assist rate increases by 31 percent (Euro scorers are tightwads with assists)
• Shooting percentage drops by 12 percent
• Overall, PER drops by 30 percent."

I used those number to calculate Rudy's projected stats based on both his 2007-2008 ACB stats, (which Hollinger says don't translate quite as well) and his 2006-2007 Euro league stats. Between the two we should be able to get an idea of where Mr. Hollingers system says Rudy's production should be next year. So here we go!

Using 2006-2007 Euro League stats.

PTS: 11.9, REB 4.5, AST 2.2, 2pt% 43%, 3pt% 31%.

Using 2007-2008 ACB league stats

PTS: 14.7, REB: 2.8, AST: 4.9, 2pt%: 47%, 3pt%: 29%

I think we can all agree, (at least those who watched Rudy in both years) that his game was decidedly better in 2007 than 2006, and these numbers seem to agree with that statement, however what about hollinger's statement,

"As far as the other prominent Europeans go, the forecast isn't nearly as positive. For starters, Ante Tomic and Alexis Ajinca didn't compete in Euroleague, so I can't tell you about them. Same goes for Marc Gasol and Rudy Fernandez, incidentally, although both put up strong 2007 numbers."

We all know the Euroleague is the top league, with the ACB argueably right behind it in skill level. So maybe Rudy's 2007-2008 numbers are a bit more inflated by playing against lesser competition, lets say that his real stats end up somewhere inbetween these two sets of projections. If that is the case, I believe we could have a strong case for Rudy as ROY, as well as a starting role on this Blazers next season, (maybe not at the start but at some point during the season Nate would have to adjust to it).

So do you guys think these are realistic numbers? Did I fail at math and complete misuse Mr. Hollinger's numbers?

2008 SUMMER LEAGUE

usmcr3049 — Tue, 24 Jun 2008 23:19:59 -0000

Man, I wish Comcast Sports Net was a done deal last year at this time.

http://blog.oregonlive.com/blazers/2008/06/blazers_summer_league_schedule.html

According to oregonlive.com the full summer league schedule will be rebroadcast on comcast sports net! Which means those with comcast, (and a few other companies that have made deals already) will be able to watch all five of the summer league games. Hopefully we will have a few players to watch, like maybe Rudy.

Is Josh Howard available?

usmcr3049 — Fri, 23 May 2008 16:37:53 -0000

According to ESPN Insider he is.

"Furture In Dallas?

Josh Howard | Mavericks

The market might be so barren for Josh Howard that the Mavericks can't find anything close to equal value.

But that doesn't mean they won't try. Or at least listen to overtures. A team that has exited the playoffs in the first round the last two seasons when expectations were much greater has to consider significant roster changes. The future of Howard is one of the key questions of the off-season. -- The Dallas Morning News

Maybe Howard has said the right things to the Mavs' brass in recent weeks, but he sure didn't sound like he'd learned a lesson the day after the season ended. Mark Cuban, however, insists that the Mavs aren't putting a priority on getting rid of Howard.

"If someone makes me an offer I can't refuse, just like anybody else, you have to consider it," Cuban said. -- The Dallas Morning News "

Last summer this guy was a dream for some fans, now that he might actually be attainable do we still want him?

How about a deal like:

	Martell Webster Salary: $2,974,080 Years Remaining: 2 PTS: 10.7 REB: 3.9 AST: 1.2 PER: 12.07
	Jarrett Jack Salary: $1,217,400 Years Remaining: 2 PTS: 9.9 REB: 2.9 AST: 3.8 PER: 13.06
	Travis Outlaw Salary: $4,000,000 Years Remaining: 3 PTS: 13.3 REB: 4.6 AST: 1.3 PER: 15.79

for

Josh Howard Salary: $9,500,000 Years Remaining: 3
PTS: 19.9 REB: 7.0 AST: 2.2 PER: 18.40

Here are Howards stats: http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/stats?playerId=2006

Would this work for Blazer fans? Would Dallas laugh at that trade? Could the Blazers attain Howard without moving Roy, Oden, LMA or Rudy? Howard's trade value is apparently pretty low after a somewhat down year, and a few boneheaded comments. But he is a good player, both offensively and defensively. For those who have not watched him much here is Hollinger's scouting report on him.

"Scouting report: The nice thing about Howard's game is that it's so well-rounded. In addition to his offense, he also does yeoman work on the glass, ranking eighth among small forwards in rebound rate. His ability to play inside helps Dallas get away with small lineups with him at power forward.

So does his defense. Howard is quick, has good size, and puts in a lot more effort at that end than some stars. He was second on the team with 35 offensive fouls drawn according to 82games.com, and ranked in the top third of small forwards in both blocks and steals per minute. He's not quite an All-Defense caliber performer, but he's not that far off.

Offensively, Howard could do even better if he settled for long jumpers less often. He loves to cross over opponents and shoot a midrange jumper from the foul line area, but it's not a shot he converts with great frequency. Howard made only 34.8 percent of his long 2-pointers last season, but a quarter of his shots came from that range. While it's inevitable that he'll have to shoot from there sometimes, his size and quickness are better assets than his jump shot and he should make better use of them. "

So if he is available for a discounted price, does anyone believe we can pick him up for some combination of Frye, Przy, Jack, Blake, Outlaw, or Webster? (not all of them ofcourse).

Denver/New Jersery Blockbuster?

usmcr3049 — Mon, 19 May 2008 16:47:50 -0000

Rumor has it that The Nuggets and Nets are in talks on a big trade.

http://www.northjersey.com/sports/nets/Nets_have_shot_to_land_gold_Nugget.html

"Multiple league sources said the Nets and Nuggets have discussed a blockbuster deal that would bring Carmelo Anthony and Marcus Camby to New Jersey. In return, Denver would get a package that includes Richard Jefferson, Marcus Williams, Keith Van Horn's contract and the Nets' lottery pick. There likely is more involved to make the salaries match up, but the sources said the trade could happen, making Tuesday even more important."

With any blockbuster, I always think of a way to get Portland envolved, and have I made a find here! So here is my suggestion to bring in Devin Harris and a tough role player, (that was drafted by the Blazers even!). Read and rejoice boys, I have solved all our problems!

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/features/traderesult?players=2382~998~1006~869~1975~125~2770~1994~2754~3220&teams=22~7~7~7~17~17~22~7~17~17&te=&cash=

3 way trade: New Jersey, Denver, and Portland

New Jersey Nets

Incoming Players
	Channing Frye Salary: $2,487,240 Years Remaining: 2 PTS: 6.8 REB: 4.5 AST: 0.7 PER: 14.83
	Josh McRoberts Salary: $427,163 Years Remaining: 2 PTS: 1.5 REB: 1.3 AST: 0.3 PER: 19.06 Minimum Salary Exception allowed trade to be successful
	Carmelo Anthony Salary: $13,041,250 Years Remaining: 5 PTS: 25.7 REB: 7.4 AST: 3.4 PER: 21.16
	Marcus Camby Salary: $10,000,000 Years Remaining: 3 PTS: 9.1 REB: 13.1 AST: 3.3 PER: 17.24

The Nets get a true superstar to launch their move to the Brox and 2 quality players in Frye and Camby, while giving up basically only Harris and Jefferson. This is the hurtle for this trade, if New Jersey holds Harris as high as many do here on the Edge, they don't do this trade. But with the two big contracts of Anthony and Camby coming on board they may not want to pay Harris the extention he signed with Dallas.

Denver Nuggets

Incoming Players
	Steve Blake Salary: $4,250,000 Years Remaining: 3 PTS: 8.5 REB: 2.4 AST: 5.1 PER: 12.09
	Keith Van Horn Salary: $4,236,997 Years Remaining: 3
	Richard Jefferson Salary: $12,200,000 Years Remaining: 4 PTS: 22.6 REB: 4.2 AST: 3.1 PER: 17.46
	Trenton Hassell Salary: $4,350,000 Years Remaining: 3 PTS: 2.0 REB: 1.3 AST: 0.7 PER: 4.23

The Nuggets get a decent deal for their superstar in Anthony, not sure if they would get more than this for him. Jefferson is a good scoring 3 to replace Anthony, and Hassell is an above avg defender to come off the bench. Blake knows their system and after a year without him, I think Karl would love to have him back to run their offense. According to the article the Nuggets would also recieve New Jersey's 1st round pick, ( number 10 unless they win).

Portland Trail Blazers

Incoming Players
	Devin Harris Salary: $3,995,003 Years Remaining: 6 PTS: 14.8 REB: 2.7 AST: 5.8 PER: 17.52
	Linas Kleiza Salary: $1,011,360 Years Remaining: 2 PTS: 11.1 REB: 4.2 AST: 1.2 PER: 14.43

Portland gets their defensive point guard, as well as a tough bench player in Kleiza who isn't afraid to attack the basket in traffic. Harris contract extention pretty much kills any cap room the Blazers will have in 2009, so if KP were to do this deal, he would have to believe that Harris at the point would be enough to bring this team to championship level in a few years. Both players are young enough to match up with our current squad's window as well.

Once again I think the hang up for a deal like this would be New Jersey not wanting to part with Harris. Portland may have to including their 13th pick, (going to New Jersey) cash, or some other player to make it work for them.

So what do you think? Have I come up with the 1st real way to get D. Harris on the Blazers? Or am I just another over-zealous fan who thinks our players are awsome, and other teams will want them as much as I do, while seeing all non-Blazer players and scrubs and their teams should beg the blazers to take them off their hands?

Blazer Brass impressions on Rudy

usmcr3049 — Wed, 14 May 2008 15:34:14 -0000

So KP and crew are back from their Euro trip having seen Rudy play and talked to him. They won't say much because Rudy is still playing for his team over there, but according to Mike Barrett, Rudy coming over sounds like it is almost a done deal.

http://mikebarrettsblog.blogspot.com/

"Also, since we've talked last, Pritchard and his management team returned from their trip to Europe. They did some scouting, watched Rudy Fernandez play, and spent some time with him. Out of respect for Rudy's current team, which is still playing, you're not going to hear a lot about him from KP and his staff yet on this situation. I can tell you that they were thrilled with what they saw. The one thing that was said to me, about Rudy, was "we went over there expecting to be impressed, and he's even better than we thought he was." In other words, scratch this issue of your list of worries here in the off-season. And, in my opinion, don't be shocked to see Rudy in the opening-night starting lineup when next season tips off."

So it seems Rudy is set to come over, at least that is how I read it, and he may even crack the starting line up for next season. Ofcourse that final decision comes from Nate, however if he does warrant a starting spot, where do you think he will start? And who does he replace?

My guess is that if Rudy is too good to come off the bench, then Roy is moved to the PG spot on offense, while Rudy "tries" to guard the opposing teams PG on defense. Either that or Roy moves to SF, but if he does it might take away from his defensive presence. I think that decision is determinded more by how Martel improves over the offseason than anything else. In a perfect world I believe Nate would like to start, BRoy, Rudy, Web, LMA, and Oden. This gives the team 3 quality shooters around 2 big men that require double teams, (or will shortly). The issue with this line up is ball handling, if Web can improve his handles to the point that he can be trusted to occasionally bring the ball up court when a team presses Rudy or Roy, then it will work. But if he can't, then this line up will be pressed full court until Nate is required to put in more help.

What this also does is create a even bigger point guard jamb then we had last year. If Roy starts at PG, then Blake backs him up, with Jack and Sergio buried on the bench, or playing off guard with Blake in the second unit. My hope would be to trade Jack or Sergio, (Jack preferred) + whatever is needed for a quality back up 2, or starting 1. If that means trading up in the draft to get that man, or trading for a more experienced vet, I am fine with it, either way we get what we need to balance the roster.

OT: New FM Sports Radio

usmcr3049 — Thu, 01 May 2008 20:28:24 -0000

http://blog.oregonlive.com/johncanzano/2008/05/baldfaced_truth_moving_to_alln.html

It has finally happened, after being rumored for a few months a 2nd sports radio station is launching for portland. "The Game" will be on 95.5 FM, and air Blazer, Seahawks, and U of O games. (sounds like Paul Allen had his hands in this, and my guess is the money behind it)

I will be listening for sure, as Gavin D. will get his own show, (only a 1 hour show, but it might expand later) from 6-7pm after the Bald Face Truth. It will be very very interesting to see how this impacts 1080 "The Fan" as well. With "The Bald Face Truth" going head to head with "Primetime".

Sergio Exit Interview

usmcr3049 — Wed, 23 Apr 2008 18:14:12 -0000

http://www.oregonlive.com/blazers/oregonian/index.ssf?/base/sports/1208832919315920.xml&coll=7&thispage=1

The above link is an article J. Quick wrote about Sergio, his exit interview with KP and Nate, and what his plans are for the summer. There is some interesting stuff in the piece I wanted to talk about and see what you all think.

First we have this idea that somehow Sergio will suddenly be able to shoot the ball...

"... lengthy to-do list -- as outlined by the Blazers -- this summer: Get stronger, improve his defense and work on his outside shot. "

and...

"The Blazers, meanwhile, insist Rodriguez, who will turn 22 in June, remains in their plans.

"We still think he has talent," McMillan said. "And we are not giving up on him. We just need to be patient. As he ages, he will get stronger and his shooting will get better." "

I have read these type of statements over and over, from fans and team officials, however I don't agree with them. To me a player may not get much playing time, but in the time he does get, his shooting percentage reflects his overall ability to make shots. If you look at the careers of NBA players, many of them start out their first year or three with limited playing time. However their shooting percentage in the time they get, is close to what they end up shooting for their career. Yes some improve a little, but I challenge someone to find a good NBA player who shot a combined 39% from the field in their first 2 seasons, that improved more than 4% afterward. 39% is what Sergio has shot over all in his first 2 seasons.

The problem for Sergio, is that he is not a defensive point guard, so his offense has to more than make up for any defensive issues his game may have. To do that, he needs to shoot an above avg percentage over all and from 3. His current career percent of 39% over all and 29% from 3, would have to improve dramatically for that to be the case, and in the history of the NBA it has maybe been done a handful of times, if at all. ( I did a quick look at players on each NBA team, none that I looked at improve their shooting percentage as dramaitically as Sergio would have to.)

So the question on Sergio comes down to this, can he bring his game back to where it was as a rookie, when adding additional minutes. Meaning can he shoot 43% while playing 18 minutes a game, and also improving his 3 point range to a respectable 35%+? Honestly I don't think he can with the Blazers. And my reasoning for that will follow this quote...

"But while Rodriguez's weaknesses kept him on the bench, second-string point guard Jarrett Jack struggled with the same things -- turnovers (he averaged a team-high 2.2) and defense -- yet he averaged 27 minutes.

McMillan said Rodriguez played less because most of his minutes came when Brandon Roy was on the bench.

"It probably wasn't fun for him playing behind Brandon, because that's who he was playing behind," McMillan said. "It wasn't Jack or (Steve) Blake. Those were the point guards. He was playing behind Brandon, and I was trying to get him as many minutes as possible." "

So coach Nate is telling us that Sergio was the back up 2 guard this year? Is he really expecting us to buy that? If Nate had flip-flopped Jack and Sergio would the Blazers have had a worse record? A better record? Confidence is a big thing in the NBA, and in my opinion Nate sucked the confidence right out of Sergio this year. In Quick's piece Sergio said he had to learn how to "love basketball" again this summer. If that doesn't prove my point I don't know what will.

So, what do you think of Sergio? Can he be the Blazer point guard of the future? Or maybe the teams back up pg of the future? Do you agree with me that Sergio needs to go to another team to have a chance as a NBA point guard?

LMA MIP

usmcr3049 — Wed, 16 Apr 2008 17:13:52 -0000

I know we are mostly biased here at the edge, but I just don't understand why the National talking heads, don't give more love to LMA for the most improved award this season. He didn't even get 1 vote for the award on EPSN's year end award prediction page. http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?page=MIP-0708

Those guys over at the BlazersOG have a very nice write up about why LMA should not only be among the leading canidates for the award, but should win it out right, including backing up their findings with stats! What a concept! Maybe if players and coaches voted for these awards instead of the media these awards might mean something. Instead we have the media in charge of some of these awards which means, "the good story" wins most of the time. http://blazersog.wordpress.com/

It is not all bad though, as the media prolly helped B-Roy get his all-star nod this year over the other equally deserving canidates. Still it pisses me off.