SB Nation User Blog: usmcr3049

Salary Cap Question:

usmcr3049 — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 21:30:03 -0000

Salary Cap Question:

Here is a question for the cap guru's out there, with next years salary cap number being estimated to be so low, I was wondering if a team could sign a player to a deal this summer, in which they make say $7 million, then next year they make $4million, then in the 3rd year they make $7 million again, then increases from there. Never seen a deal like this, so I don't think it is allowed, but there are deals out there that go down over the life of the deal, (hinrich's is one example).

Leon Powe

usmcr3049 — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 16:40:41 -0000

It appears that Boston will not extend a qualifing offer to Powe and he will become an UFA, I think the Blazers should take a chance on him and his knees. Sign him to a low cost/high reward deal let him rehab and come back next year. With his injury issues he could be signed for almost the league minimum is my guess, and that would be a great deal if he can comeback next year and be as productive as he was this year.

OT: Comcast

usmcr3049 — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 21:58:50 -0000

OT: Comcast

Just an FYI, I recently called Comcast to see if I could save some cash on my monthly bill. Currently I have Cable TV and Internet through them, along with and HD-DVR and HD programing. Back when I upgraded to get the DVR, they told me I had to sign up for the "digital classic" service or above, the basic anaolog cable didn't work with their DVR's or something I guess. Well anyways now that Comcast has switched everyone over to digital programing I thought there might be a cheaper package available, and I was right.

"Digital Classic" is basically what they are now calling the "digital starter" from what I can tell on their website, (linked above in the title). It gives you about 100 channels of stuff, but most of it beyond channel 71 is junk. So I asked the rep if there was anything cheaper now that they had gone all digital and he said there was a digital package that was just channels 1-71 and it was about $10 cheaper than what i was currently paying, (I am not on any promo deals). I said great sign me up, and he said, "but wait theres more!" This package also included the Starz channels at no additinal cost! I asked if it was some promo that was fall off after 6 months or a year and he said no, no promo, it is just part of the package, but they don't advertise it.

So now I got digital cable, with and HD-DVR, channels 1-71, plus the HD channels in the 700's, plus all of the Starz channels, all while still getting the ondemand programing, and my high-speed internet. And I am paying $10 less per month to get it, not a bad days work imo. :)

A Revised Plan for the future

usmcr3049 — Wed, 13 May 2009 00:09:51 -0000

A Plan for the Future **Revised**

As I said in my first post, it was just a rough draft, since I posted it, it has received over 350 comments thanks to Dave putting it on the main page. I have read each comment and suggestion, and knowing that my ideas are not always the best I decided to see if maybe there is a better plan for the future of this team. This revised plan will include; updated salary cap info from Storyteller and others who pointed out some flaws in my original post, and many different player movement plans that people have suggested. Hopefully it will not be as long as the last one, and hopefully it will be as well received.

I. Salary cap for the 2009/2010 season

Before we go any further, we need to assess the team’s salary cap situation, as it will effect every decision that is made from this point. For this post, I am going to use an assumed salary cap for next season, the number I have chosen is $57.3 million. I chose this number because it seems to be the most quoted by NBA writers when talking about projecting next years cap. The luxury tax has always been between $12-13 million more than the salary cap, the actual number is determined by an insane formula that I can’t go into, because I really don’t understand it, but if you would like to read about it, you can at, http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#Q16. If we use the higher end of the assumed amount, ($13 million) that would put the luxury tax threshold at $70.3 million.

The Blazers have committed $50,567,802 in payroll next season, but that is not their cap number. As pointed out by ptldplatypus, and confirmed by Storyteller, there are cap holds which reduce the actual salary cap space the team has to sign free agents. Those holds are $933,500 for the Blazers #24 pick in the 2009 draft, $824,200 for Petteri Koponen, $824,200 for Joel Freeland, and $4,264,761 for Channing Frye. Adding in those hold you will get $ 55,744,779, which is exactly what Storyteller shows on his website, http://www.storytellerscontracts.info/resources/08-09salaries.htm. Leaving the Blazers a projected $1,555,221 in cap space this summer. What that does not include is the Blazers Mid-level exception, or Bi-annual exception.

The Blazers have some options to gain more cap space, they can renounce their rights to players or exceptions if they choose. For example they can renounce their rights to Channing Frye to free up his cap hold of $4,264,761, giving the team a total of $5,819,982 in possible cap space. To use that space the team would need to renounce their mid-level and bi-annual exceptions, which they might not want to do. This is because the mid-level exception this last year was $5.585 million, and the bi-annual was $1.91 million. Those can be split up to sign more than 2 players, but they can not be added together to sign one player. The team could also renounce its rights to Freeland or Koponen to gain $1,648,400 additional space, but I don’t see them doing it. So for the purpose of this plan I am going to say the team will renounce it’s rights to Frye, giving them $5,819,982 in possible cap space if they also decide to renounce their exceptions. In the player acquisition section below I will detail how we will trade for, or sign a player(s) and if the team would have to renounce their exceptions or not.

II. Player decisions for the season ending in 2009.

In the last post I detailed specifics about letting some players go, and signing both Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge to extensions. For this post I will simply say the team will sign them both, Roy for $88 million over 5 years, and LaMarucs for $50 million for 5 years. If you care to read my reasoning behind those salaries, or how I came up with those numbers, you can read the original post here, http://www.blazersedge.com/2009/5/8/869802/a-plan-for-the-future.

III. Trades and Free Agents

Instead of detailing one specific plan this time, I am going to give a few options that others have suggested. The ones I have picked to detail, were picked because they could be supported by other sources and possible, (meaning no LBJ or Kobe trades will make it) and because a deal could be made for the player(s) that seems reasonable to all parties.

The first trade I would like to discus, we’ll call it Plan A, is with Detroit for Tayshaun Prince. This was suggested by many people, who felt the Blazers needed and upgrade at the SF more than at the PG. The general feeling was Steve Blake could hold down the fort at the point for now, but the trio of Outlaw, Webster and Batum could not produce enough for this team to compete for a championship next year or in the next few years. Looking at, http://www.motownstringmusic.com/, it is clear they are willing to deal Prince if they get value in return. The Pistons will be under the cap, but have some big holes to fill, with Wallace and AI both apparently leaving. In fact only Hamilton, Prince, K. Brown, Amir Johnson, Jason Maxiell, R. Stuckey, and Will Bynum are left from their rotation. So they will need some players, and they believe Joe Dumars will be aggressive in free agency and in the trade market, specifically trying to move both Hamilton and Prince for younger, possibly cheaper talent.

Fans in Detroit seem to willing to trade Prince for Gerald Wallace of Charlotte, or a player of his caliber. (http://www.motownstringmusic.com/2009/4/22/849010/next-seasons-roster). Charlotte seems to have been open to trading Wallace for a few years now, and while getting Prince in return would be a possible talent upgrade, they have far more needs to solve, and precious little cap space to do it in. The Bobcats are sitting at $66,877,077 next year, without their exceptions or lottery pick holds added on. With the lottery pick alone they will be right at the luxury tax line, however they also have a few players they can renounce to give them some more space. Both Raymon Felton and Sean May are RFA’s this offseason coming off their rookie deals. Now they appear to want to resign Felton, if he can be had for a reasonable price, but May is a long shot to stay, and even longer to stay with a deal approaching his hold of $3,680,200. If we take that off then they sit at $63,186,784 before their draft pick and exceptions. So they are way over the salary cap, and pushing the luxury tax threshold no matter how you look at it.

The Bobcats need scoring, especially if they are going to trade away their top scoring option in Wallace. They also need a shooting guard, and possibly a point guard if they don’t resign Felton. They could use a true 7 foot center, but otherwise their frontcourt depth is pretty sold with Okafor, Boris Diaw, and DeSagana Diop. They also have Vladimir Radmanovic and Nazr Mohammed who are both useable, but not really rotation quality players.

The only reasonable deal I could come up with would bring Prince to Portland, while sending Outlaw, Webster, and Bayless to Charlotte, and Wallace to Detroit. Detroit would also receive Portland’s 1st round pick in the 2009 draft. For Detroit it is a straight swap of Prince for Wallace on the court, Wallace is younger, and more of a scorer, which they need. Their contracts are about $1 million apart, and Wallace is signed for 2 years longer than Prince. Detroit would maintain its cap space to sign a free agent like Boozer, so I see them willing to do this. The 1st round pick they get from Portland, #24 overall will also help them either move up in the draft, make a trade, or pick up a player on a cheap contract who can be useful to them next year.

For Charlotte, they get 3 possible answers to 3 of their biggest concern areas for a player who they have tried to give away at times. Portland might also be willing to throw in a 2nd round pick, which would give the Bobcats another chance to pick up a player on the cheap. Barring further moves, Webster would be their opening day starter at shooting guard, since they have been using a two pg line up at the end of the season with Augustin and Felton playing heavy minutes with little known Dontell Jefferson backing them up on a 10 day contract. Outlaw would also start for them at SF, with Wallace gone, their only other option is Radmanovic, and Outlaw is obviously the better choice. Bayless would compete to start if Felton wasn’t resigned, if he is resigned, Bayless can still provide scoring off the bench as a combo guard, behind Webster. That is 3 rotation players for 1, plus Outlaw is someone who can win you one or two games all on his own, something they just don’t have on that team.

For Portland the deal is obviously to get Prince, who will turn 30 next season. At 6-9, 215 lbs, he is the best available starting small forward on the market for Portland. Getting him would be a coup, to end all coup’s. Prince has averaged 13+ ppg over the last 5 seasons, shooting 46% for his career, and 37% from 3 for his career, (40% 3pt in 2009). But forget me trying to explain it, lets have an “expert” do it,

“Prince's year-to-year consistency is pretty amazing, as he put together his fourth consecutive season of near-identical production and played all 82 games for a fifth straight season -- his string of 354 straight starts is the league's longest, and would be about a hundred games longer if it included playoff games. The biggest change was a decline in 3-point attempts, which was a bit mysterious since he shoots them at 36.5 percent for his career, and the result was a bit of a dip in his TS%.

At both ends, Prince is an extreme low-mistake player. He ranked fourth among small forwards in turnover ratio; more amazingly, he had the second-lowest foul rate in the league even though the Pistons used him as their primary defensive stopper (see chart). Looking at the foul-rate leaders brings this into sharper detail -- it's four guys who never play defense and Prince. Combining those two thoughts, he had only six offensive fouls last season -- an amazingly low total for a mid-teens scorer.

Prince's other defining characteristic is his ability to handle the ball and find open men. He ranked eighth among small forwards in assist ratio; combined with the low turnovers, only LeBron James had a better pure point rating among small forwards.

At 6-9 with long arms, Prince is an imposing obstacle for offensive players to shoot over. He's smart enough to take advantage of his length by playing an extra step off his man, knowing that he can still react in time to bother the shot because he's so long. He almost never gambles on D, finishing with the fourth-lowest rate of steals per minute among small forwards; instead he forces opponents to go over the top of him. For his efforts, he was a second-team All-Defense pick for a third straight season.

Offensively, Prince takes a lot of long 2-pointers off one or two dribbles. He's very good at knocking down jumpers at the end of the shot clock and has no trouble getting his shot off, but it's not necessarily a high-percentage look. He rarely drives to the basket or gets to the free-throw line, though he can be very effective posting up on the right block against shorter wings.

Prince also excels at running the left wing on the break and swooping in for dunks, though Detroit rarely runs. And although he's 6-9, he handles the ball very well for his size and can be used as a point forward. – John Hollinger”

So yea he is basically the perfect small forward for the Blazer’s system. To make this trade happen, the Blazers don’t need any cap space, since their outgoing and incoming salaries match within $300k. This trade would leave the Blazers with Prince and Batum at the small forward position, which in my opinion is the best case scenario. This not only defines their roles, but leaves some time possibly at the 3 to get Roy and Rudy on the court together against some teams. I don’t think many fans of the Blazers can say getting Prince would be a bad thing, but I know there are some who will think this deal gives up too much for him, and you may be right. However to get a lot you have to give up a lot, and I would be willing to do this in a heart beat.

As for the deals impact on the Blazers salary cap, it adds $261,646 to the Blazers payroll for next year, but it also eliminates the cap hold for the Blazers 1st round pick, ($933,500), leaving them with a possible $6,491,836 in cap space, before their exceptions.

Along with this trade, the Blazers would still need to fill a few holes, and make some decisions on players. They must decide if they want to keep Sergio or not. By trading Bayless, it gives all the back up time to Sergio at the point, unless further moves are made. There are a few options in the free agent market for point guards, Jason Kidd, Mike Bibby, Raymon Felton, Ramon Sessions, and Andre Miller are all unrestricted or restricted free agents. Of those, Kidd is rumored to want to stay in Dallas, and they want to keep him, to read about that go here, http://www.dallasbasketball.com/fullColumn.php?id=1588, and Mike Bibby appears to have found a home in Atlanta, which is far enough under the cap to resign him. That leaves Felton, Sessions and Miller, all of whom could fit the Blazers, but for different reasons. Felton is rumored to want a big payday, but he has not played his way into one. He is a 40% career shooter, who shot 41% last year. From distance he is even worse, 29% last year, and 32% for his career, and he is not the defensive stopper many want either, but don't take my word for it, from ESPN;

Felton is a pure point guard by size, but doesn't quite have the pass-first mentality that coaches tend to prefer. Being jerked between the 1 and 2 the past couple years probably hasn't helped any, nor has his erratic shooting from distance. And on drives to the rim, he tends to just double-pump and hope he gets bailed out by the ref rather than seriously trying to finish the play.

Defensively, it was hard to judge Felton since he was playing out of position. He seemed to get caught up in screens off the ball a lot, probably because he had rarely defended wings before. On the ball he was adequate, if hardly exceptional.

Felton is the classic, decent player that looks good on a bad team, and the Blazers should stay away.

Andre Miller, at 33 is on the downhill side of his career, he is a much better player than Felton, shooting 46% for his career, and 47% last year. His 3point shot is still nothing to write home about, he does have one fan that wants in pdx, http://thehoopdoctors.com/online2/2009/05/could-andre-miller-be-wearing-a-blazers-jersey-next-season/. Miller is not a defensive stopper at the point, in fact he is no better than Blake, but no worse either. On offense Blake out shines him on 3 point percentage, but the rest belongs to Miller, including his ability to run the fast break. But he will come at a cost of over $8 million most likely.

Ramon Sessions might be obtainable, more so than any of the other guards on this list, which is why I choose to add him in Plan A. For some Milwaukee perspective on Sessions read this article by Michael Hunt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, http://www.jsonline.com/sports/bucks/42640872.html. Here is what he has to say specifically about Sessions and the Bucks decision to match or not,

“Sessions is doable as one of the two hardest pieces to find, the other being the centerpiece big man the Bucks have if Andrew Bogut stays healthy. If packaged with incentives like a Joe Alexander, the Bucks could move Luke Ridnour's expiring $6.5 million contract to clear space for Sessions. But with a potentially high lottery pick, they could be better served if a rookie point guard with more up side - a Brandon Jennings or an Eric Maynor, for example - fell their way.

These are the unknowns going into the summer, although one thing is clear:

The Bucks got themselves into this jam by freely matching contracts and re-signing players to the point that they tied themselves down with a lot of unmovable paper. They'd be better off building around their one long-term contract - Bogut - with flexible deals that would actually allow Hammonds and Skiles the chance to go get their kinds of players.”

It sounds to me that Milwaukee might be willing to part with Sessions by not matching an offer sheet, but they would be even more willing if they received some salary cap relief in return. Milwaukee is at $71,035,835 in projected salary next season, which includes a cap hold for Charlie Villanueva who is coming off his rookie deal. The Bucks will have to trade players or not resign Sessions to stay under the luxury tax threshold, which is why they tried so desperately to unload Richard Jefferson at the trade deadline.

At 6-3 190lbs, Sessions has the build that KP likes, and the body to play defense, even if he hasn't become great at it yet. He shoots 44% from the floor, and is a good FT shooter at 80%, but he is not a good 3 point shooter. He makes his living in the lane, which is what many here have asked for in their starting point guard. He sees the court like Sergio does, which is very well, but he scores and rebounds better that Steven and Sergio, and gets a few more steals and blocks too. Here is ESPN's scouting report,

As if it weren't obvious from the assist totals, Sessions has outstanding court vision and is a pass-first guy who likes to drive and dish. He's neither a great athlete nor a great shooter, but he rebounds well for his position and made surprisingly few mistakes for a rookie point guard. Defensively, he appears to have the size to guard the position but may be challenged to stay in front of quicker guards.

While Sessions is not worth the full mid-level exception, (some where around $5.858 million) he is worth alot, but because of the Arena’s rule, the Bucks can offer him more than anyone else, if they choose to go into tax hell. However their owner has said he will not, so unless he has a change of heart, it looks plauseable that the Blazers, or another team could pick up Sessions this summer. I would offer Sessions a 5 year deal for $25 million, if I was sure Milwaukee wouldn’t match. That could be done with part of the Mid-level exception or by renouncing it and using the resulting cap space, I don’t think it would matter either way. If the Bucks were to match that offer, they would be over the luxury tax threshold by almost $10 million next year, unless they could trade Jefferson or Redd, which would be a huge gamble for them.

If the Blazers are convinced that Sessions is their guy, and that Milwaukee will match any offer, they would have to try and make a sign and trade offer that appeals to the Bucks. The Blazers could offer some salary relief by signing Reaf or Ruffin to a partially guaranteed contract, then trading him to Milwaukee in exchange for Sessions, who would have been signed as well, (I don’t really see that happening.), or adding a second round pick or two, which would be cheap for the Bucks to sign. Unfortuately if the Bucks want to keep Sessions and let Charlie V. go, there is nothing the Blazers can do to outbid them.

My feeling it that Milwaukee’s brass, (Hammond and Skiles) want to get out of salary cap hell, and get some more flexable deals, for players who can play. Basically they want to move from where the Blazers were 3 years ago, to where the Blazers are today, in terms of their salary cap picture. To do that, they will have to let Sessions walk, and maybe Charlie V. too, unless they can get a taker for Michael Redd or Richard Jefferson this summer or next season before the trade deadline, which means signing Ramon Sessions for $25 million over 5 years is a very real possiblilty.

To sign Sessions, lets say the Blazers renounced their Mid-level exception, with Sessions salary at $5 million that would reduce the Blazers possible cap space to $1,491,836. The Bi-Annual exception for this year is $1,990,000, so more than the left over cap space, which makes it highly unlikely that the Blazers would renounce it. Instead they would look to aquire a veteran power forward to back up LaMarcus. The names I used in my first post would all require more than the $1.9 million the Blazers would have to offer, accept for Joe Smith. There were concerns that he was more willing to return to Cleveland then move on to another team though.

If Smith does resign with Cleveland, there are still a few options that could be available to the Blazers. Antonio McDyess be an option, he made just under $800k last year, is still productive, averaging 9.6ppg and 9.8rpg in 30mpg for the Pistons. Just a few years ago as a back up for Detroit he averaged 8 points and 6 rebounds in only 21 minutes per game. He shoots a high percentage from the floor, and plays good position defense. For me, these two are the first two free agent power forwards I talk to, and my guess is McDyess will not be asked to return to Detroit as they are going in a different direction. For Plan A, we sign Antonion McDyess for the full Bi-annual exception, 2 years just over $4 million in total.

So if Plan A was to come to life, the Blazers would look like this:

PG: Sessions $5,000,000 – Blake $4,000,000

SG: Roy $3,910,816 – Rudy $1,165,320

SF: Prince $10,324,380 – Batum $1,118,760

PF: LaMarcus $5,844,827 – McDyess $1,990,000

C: Oden $5,361,240 – Przybilla $6,857,725

To fill out the roster, I would still try and convince Joel Freeland to come over and compete for the back up PF spot with McDyess, and provide depth at the position. He may not win it, but I think he needs to be here to develop any futher

I would also pick a pg like Darren Collison with the one of the team’s 2nd round pick, and sign him to a 2 year deal, with the 2nd year being unguaranteed. I would also either sign one of the other 2nd round picks, or pick up a veteran on a minimum deal that isn’t expecting too much playing time, but can provide some insurance incase of injuries, like Quinton Ross. These signings would fill out the roster, and give valuable back up options incase of injury or just for practice. It would also leave the Blazers with 14 players leaving the 15th spot open like KP likes to do.

2009-2010 Roster – salary

1. Brandon Roy - $3,910,816

2. LaMarcus Aldridge – 5,844,826

3. Greg Oden – 5,361,240

4. Teyshaun Prince – 10,324,380

5. Ramon Sessions – 5,000,000

6. Rudy Fernandez – 1,165,320

7. Joel Przybilla – 6,857,725

8. Nicolas Batum – 1,118,760

9. Antonio McDyess - $1,990,000

10. Steve Blake 4,000,000

11. Sergio Rodriguez – 1,576,696

12. Darren Collision – 442,114

13. Quinton Ross - 771,123

14. Joel Freeland – 824,200

(Darius Miles) – 9,000,000

Total Team salaries: $58,187,200

Plan A, provides flexibility by keeping the 15th roster spot open, it provides roster balance, with defined roles for everyone. Even though Nate will say every spot is an open competition, you can tell just by looking at the roster who the starters are, who the bench players will be, and who will be looking good in a suit for the better part of 82 games. This plan also provides something that my first did not, it gives some of our more talented but younger players a role model to watch and learn from. Prince should be able to teach Batum how to play fantastic defense, while still providing a boost on offense. Blake can teach Sessions how to control an offense, and not let it control you, and McDyess can teach LaMarcus how physical you have to be to become an All-star in this league. There is a very healthy mix of veterans and young players that should be very successful.

As for the future after the 2009-2010 season, Plan A actually would reduce the amount committed to players verses my original plan. The total salary committed to 2010-2011 season is $60,118,224, which is before any draft picks of that year, it is also with out Steve Blake or Sergio, they would have to be resigned if the team needed/wanted to keep them. That summer is also when Greg Oden would be need to be extended, and it is the last contract year of Joel, Prince, and McDyess. Blake may be able to be resigned as the back up point for around his current salary or maybe even less. Joel and Prince could also be extended prior to that point to prevent them from being unrestricted free agents.

IV. Conclusions

Once again I ask you to pick apart this plan, because it is only my ~~first~~, second, observation about what we should do. There are bound to be inconsistencies, and other problems that come up that I didn’t think about. Do we need another wing? Do we need to bring in a defensive coach to upgrade a defense that was middle of the pack last year? Is there something else we should do with the #24 pick? Should we even trade anyone? Can a starting line up of Sessions, Roy, Prince, Lma, and Oden bring Portland a championship? Is this plan any better than the last? I look forward to your thoughts Blazersedge.

Kobe better than MJ? Really???

usmcr3049 — Mon, 11 May 2009 20:15:19 -0000

Kobe better than MJ? Really???

Kickerblogger has a good post up about the arguement of Kobe vs MJ. To me there is no arguement, MJ was flat out better, and the stats and rings show it. (As does this weekends blow out loss to the Rockets) The poster, uses per36 min stats to compare the two players, an he gap between them is very very apparent.

But I was interested in seeing how D. Wade's season compared, because I felt he had a much better season that Kobe, and only just below LBJ.
Wade p/36
pts 28.2
blk 1.3
stls 2.0
asts 7.0
rebs 4.7
ts% 57.4
eFG% 51.6
FGA 20.5
3PA 3.3
FTA 9.1
FT% 76.5
3P% 31.7

They still don't match or exceed MJ's stats from when he was Wade's age, (27) but they are much closer than Kobe's are.

When will people who should know something about basketball, stop talking about Kobe like he is as good or even better than MJ? Maybe never, which is sad because he never was, and never will be like Mike.

A plan for the Future.

usmcr3049 — Fri, 08 May 2009 21:33:59 -0000

The future, we are all thinking about it right now, what does it hold, who will the Blazers sign as a free agent, who will they trade, if anyone, and what can we expect from this team not just next year, but for the next few years. I have no doubt Kevin Pritchard and his team has a plan, but as fans we only see bits and pieces of it, so we are left to our own speculation. Many have already started to write fan posts about who they think this team should acquire, and the names range from Kobe to no one. But what I am going to propose here, is a fully thought out plan, weeks in the making, that includes all draft picks, free agent signings, extensions for players, renouncing of rights to other players, salary cap implications, and basically everything I feel that KP and his team would have to discuss and address in the near future. Needless to say, if you’re not ready for a read, try again later, if you are then go grab a cup of joe, you could be here awhile.

I. Salary cap for the 2009/2010 season

The Blazers have committed $50,567,802 in payroll next season, (http://hoopshype.com/salaries/portland.htm) This was caused in part because of the Zach Randolph trade which returned Steven Francis, who was bought out, and whose contract of over $17 million comes off the books. Because Steve was bought out, the Blazers have no rights to him, unlike some other players who the team will have to make a decision on, such as Raef LaFrentz. The Blazers have just under $6.8 million in salary cap space this summer and about a total of $20 million before they would go over the luxury tax threshold. To run a profitable team, the Blazers will have to stay below the tax cap, so for this post we will not be going over the threshold like the team did in the past.

II. Player decisions for the season ending in 2009.

The first decisions to make this summer have to do with players, the draft is fast approaching, and the team is bring in players for pre-draft workouts already. But before we get to the draft, a few other decisions need to be made. First of all there are 3 players on the team whose contracts are up; they are Mr. Ruffin, Mr. Randolph, and Mr. LaFrentz. All three players should be let go this offseason, only Shavlik can still play in the NBA, but unfortunately it will not be with the Blazers. Saying goodbye to these players still does not give the team uses of its full cap number, there are still harder decisions to make.

The only restricted free agent Portland has is Channing Frye. The team must do one of 4 things with Frye, sign him to an extension, renounce his rights, sign him to the qualifying offer, or let him sign an offer sheet with another team. The team could also trade him to another team after resigning him if they choose. However I don’t see that happening, what I do believe will happen is the team will either renounce his rights, (2nd option) or let him sign an offer sheet, and if it is really low they might match it, but the most likely outcome would be the Blazers letting him walk for nothing. Because he is a RFA he can’t be used in trades before the draft or even during it. The team would have to wait almost a month after the draft before they could resign him and trade him. These types of trades rarely happen, so for this plan he will be renounced to make his qualifying deal come off the cap and give the Blazers their full $7 million to use this summer.

The next decision to be made is pretty easy, both Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge need to be resigned. First is Brandon Roy, he is the face of the franchise, and its unquestioned leader. For those skills and for his obvious skills on the court he will be offered a max contract extension. The exact numbers won’t be known because of how a max deal is determined, but we can get pretty close. The only question I can see is if Roy wants the full 5 year extension or not. Many of us might assume he would, but with a new CBA coming soon he might see an advantage to not signing for the full 5 years. My opinion is that in the next CBA player salaries stand more of a chance of being reduced than increased, so Roy would be well served to sign for the max he can get now, for as long as he can get now. This is why both LBJ and Wade signed only 3 year deals, which end next summer. They will be able to sign long term extensions under the current CBA, so even if player salaries are reduced it won’t affect them until 6 years down the road. It was a very smart, forward thinking plan by them and their agents.

A 5 year max contract for Roy is going to be in the $88 million dollar range. Max contracts for a player with Roy’s experience start at 25% of the salary cap in which the extension takes affect. Roy’s extension would take affect in 2010/2011, but I am using the cap figure we discussed earlier of $57.3 million, because predicting two years out is crazy. It is safe to say that Roy’s extension will top $80 for 5 years easily, and depending on the cap it might even top $90 million.

For LaMarcus, a max deal has been talked about, and his agent will surely ask or even demand one, but I don’t believe Aldridge has earned one. I would be willing to give him a bit more based on the potential the team sees in him, but a max deal would seem to be out of line with his production. Other players of his caliber, (potential all-star, or borderline all-star, even some multi-time all-stars) are not making the max or even close. A few players I would compare Aldridge to are; David West, Josh Smith, Luol Deng, Mo Williams, Josh Howard, Nene, Tayshaun Prince, Baron Davis, Al Jefferson, Hedo Turkoglu, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, and Antawn Jamison. None of these players are on max deals, and many are more accomplished than LaMarcus. The most common to him is David West in my opinion. West has been an all-star twice, (2008, 2009) and he signed a 5 year $45 million contract in 2007-2008, the same year he made his first all-star game.

The contract I would offer LaMarcus would be 5 years for $50 million, (the max I would offer him this offseason would be 5 years $60 million) and I think he would accept that. If he believes strongly enough to turn it down I would let him play this year out and go into restricted free agency next summer. If he improves his game next year and becomes an all-star then the team could offer a bit more, if he makes a leap like Roy did this year, then a max deal could be considered. If I were KP, I would not be afraid to let LaMarcus go into RFA, because the Blazers can still match anything he is offered even next summer, even with many teams having cap space. I can’t see any team offering him a max deal based on his potential if his production remains what it was this last season.

III. Trades and Free Agents

The first trade I would make would involve the draft, if New York doesn’t get a top 3 pick, I would offer them Sergio and our 1st rounder for their 1st round pick. I think their pick is #8 and should get the Blazers the chance to draft a decent banger for practice. The trade is more about setting Sergio free and freeing up back up point minutes for Bayless. Sergio is not a long term fit with the Blazers, but Bayless could be, and we won’t see that until he is given some responsibility. And for Sergio, New York would be perfect for him, if he can’t succeed there, he would have to go back to Spain. This can only happen if New York has a trade exception, which I think they do, Sergio’s contract is very small, only $ 1,892,035, so I think their exception covers that. As for our salary cap, the cap number for the pick the Blazers will send New York is $933,500, for a total of about $2.8 million off the Blazer cap number. That is about $400K more than the pick we will get from New York, giving the Blazers about $400K more cap space for a total of about $7.1 million.

The second trade I would make would be with the Bulls for Kirk Hinrich. I know some don’t think he is much of an upgrade to Blake, but I think you might be surprised by what Captain Kirk brings to the table. Here is a quick highlight video of him against the pistons during the playoffs 2 years ago, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uhU5-VHUCxw&feature=related. As you can see, Kirk is able to penetrate and kick, drive, pull up, and knock down the mid range jumper, and go to the hole strong, all things Blake is unable to do. He is also a very good defender, spot up 3 point shooter, and foul shooter. He has playoff experience, more than any other Blazer I believe, and his contract is not that bad. He is signed through 2011-2012; his salary for next season is $9.5 million, $9 million in 2010-2011, and $8 million in the final year. For a starting point guard that is pretty normal.

To make this trade happen, the Bulls will need at least a back up pg, and someone else who can help them. Lucky for the Blazers they have two perfect players for them, Steve Blake and Travis Outlaw. Steve is obviously a very capable back up point, which should help Rose learn the ropes. Outlaw will help provide the Bulls the scoring off the bench, which they will lose a big chunk of that when Ben Gordon leaves via unrestricted free agency. If you recall Gordon turned down $50 million from the Bulls last summer, and with his performance in the first round this year, I can see one of the few teams with cap space this summer giving him a good offer and the Bulls don’t have any way to stop it. Steve and Travis’s deals add up to between $8.25 and $8.93 million, depending on which salary info site you look at. The Blazers can eat the difference because of their cap space, making the deal work for both teams. This would leave the Blazers about $6.5 million in cap space to sign free agents with.

For a good free agent list, Oregonlive.com has put this up, http://blog.oregonlive.com/behindblazersbeat/2009/05/nba_free_agents_2009_and_2010.html. I believe after these trades, the Blazers will need to look to free agency and the draft to fill their remaining needs. The team is solid at PG, SG, SF and C, only back up PF needs to be upgraded. With a very specific skill set require I went looking, and after looking at all the possibilities, I have come up with the following targeted names; Chris, “Birdman” Anderson, Leon Powe, Joe Smith, Brandon Bass, Walter Hermann, David Lee, and Anderson Varejao. Each has their strengths and weaknesses, and I was going to break each one down for you, but this is already too long, so I will just say a few things about each to explain why I did or did not chose to pursue them as free agents.

Birdman – Anderson is an unrestricted free agent and he is only 30 years old. He is a good defender, a great shot blocker, and a good finisher. Outside of the basket area he has no offensive game, is a 63% FT shooter and a good rebounder. With Joel on the second unit already, I feel the Birdman will duplicate what is already there, so I chose to go after someone else.

Brandon Bass – Bass is 6-8, 250lbs, and only 24 years old. He is young, and would fit with this team’s time table, but he won’t bring much playoff experience to the team. He is a good jump shooter and a good rebounder, 80% ft shooter, and gets most of his points driving against bigger power forwards. I don’t see Dallas letting him go, Cuban can spend more to keep him than we can to get him, and at the price we would offer him Cuban would easily match.

Walter Hermann – 29years old, 6-9 225. Hermann is more of a 3 than a 4, a good shooter, but not a great rebounder for a PF. So he is off the list.

David Lee – 26years old, 6-9 240. Lee is a great finisher, great rebounder, 80% ft shooter, but not a good defender. New York is way over the projected cap with $76 million already committed next year, but I can’t see them letting him go, after all their payroll this year was $98 million, so they are not afraid to pay the luxury tax.

Anderson Varejao – 26years old, 6-11, 260lbs. Great defender, rebounder, very good against the pick and roll on defense. Not a good FT shooter, at 58%, draws lots of offensive fouls, one of the best floppers in the game. I feel Anderson would also duplicate what Joel brings to the second unit, and any offense he gets is because of the attention paid to LBJ. Meaning his production would fall off greatly if brought to Portland.

Joe Smith – 33 years old 6-10 250, Is a good jump shooter, doesn’t turn the ball over, and is a good rebounder. Shoots 70% from the line, defends well, and draws lots of charges. Has plenty of experience in the playoffs. Smith would be a good pick up if we couldn’t get…

Leon Powe – 25 years old, 6-8 240lbs. Good offensive game for a back up PF, can shoot out to 15 feet, but makes his money in the paint. Plays under the rim, but like Zach Randolph, has a nose for the ball and tips lots of offensive rebounds in for points. He is an ok defender; he hustles and gives lots of effort, draws charges well, and shoots 70% from the line. Boston does have his bird rights, so they can pay him more than anyone else; however they are already over the luxury tax line next season with $73 million committed. This could be the one area where Channing Frye might be used in a trade, as he would be cheaper than Powe for the Celtics, while still providing some offense off the bench. Stats: http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/players/hollinger?playerId=3023. PER: 17.25, 17mpg, 8ppg, 5rpg, 53%fg, 70%FT.

For the sake of argument lets say Boston doesn’t match Portland’s offer and the Blazers sign Powe to a 4 year deal for $30.4 million. It would cost the Blazers their full cap number of $6.5 million this summer, but it would complete their 10 man rotation. The Mid level for the year is about $5.8 million, so it is more than any other team that is over the cap can offer, and it is enough to make Boston think hard before matching, because it would cost them double, almost $60 million, and Powe is not worth that, not even to the Celtics, who could sign someone like Frye to a one year deal for under $4 million, and be out only $8 million.

**UPDATE** May 5th 2009 “News: Powe underwent successful surgery to repair a micro facture and torn ligaments in his left knee on Tuesday, the Associated Press reports.”**

This makes signing Powe very risky. My guess is he will resign with Boston now for cheap, leaving the Blazers to fall back on a player like Joe Smith. I would still contact Powe and try to sign him, (for much less of course) to a 3 or 4 year deal. He won’t be very good next year, but he is young and should heal well, so come 2010-2011 he should be back to 100%. For this fan post I am going to project the Blazers signing both Powe and Joe Smith, Smith for a 1 year deal that is a little above the vet minimum, and Powe for a 3 year deal for a total of $10 million. Both bring post season experience, and the right skill set to be successful as a back up PF on the Blazers.

To fill out the roster, and in light of Powe’s injury, I would convince Joel Freeland to come over and compete for the back up PF spot with Smith, and provide depth at the position. The team would also sign at least 2 of its draft picks from the 2009 draft, a 1st round pick, (#8, from New York) and one of their 2nd round picks. With the number 8 pick, I would choose DeJuan Blair, PF 6-7 265lbs. He is short, but he is a good rebounder, and this team could use all the big men it can get in case Powe doesn’t come back strong, and Smith gets hurt or can’t be convinced to sign with Portland instead of retiring. I would also pick Darren Collison with the team’s first 2nd round pick, #32 over all, and sign him to a 2 year deal, with the 2nd year being unguaranteed. These signings would fill out the roster, and give valuable back up options incase of injury or just for practice. It would also leave the Blazers with 14 players leaving the 15th spot open like KP likes to do.

2009-2010 Roster – salary

1. Brandon Roy - $3,910,816

2. LaMarcus Aldridge – 5,844,826

3. Greg Oden – 5,361,240

4. Kirk Hinrich – 9,500,000

5. Jerryd Bayless – 2,143,080

6. Rudy Fernandez – 1,165,320

7. Martel Webster – 4,344,000

8. Nicolas Batum – 1,118,760

9. Leon Powe – 3,000,000

10. Joel Przybilla – 6,857,725

11. Joel Freeland – 824,200

12. Joe Smith – 1,500,000

13. DeJuan Blair – 2,483,280

14. Darren Collision – 442,114

(Darius Miles) – 9,000,000

Total Team salaries: $57,495,361

So as you can see, this plan keeps the Blazers in a position to add even more players via the mid-level exception or bi-annual exception during the season if the need arises. It also provides flexibility for in season trades should they need to happen, it provides balance to the roster, with 3 point guards, 5 wings, and 6 bigs to bang down low. What this plan also does is set this team up for the future, by buying low on some talent that might prove to be extremely valuable; the Blazers salary cap situation won’t get out of control, leaving them plenty of options in the years to come. To demonstrate that point I have calculated the team’s salary cap number for the 2010-2011 season as follows: $63,618,084, which is before next years draft picks and after Roy’s and LaMarcus’s extensions kick in. With the luxury tax threshold at $70 million or more the Blazers should have plenty of wiggle room next season. After that will be Greg’s extension year, and that is too far ahead to predict, it will all depend on his play. Przybilla’s contract will also run out at that point, with him being 32 at that point he may or may not be resigned, much of that decision depends on Greg’s play as well. But no matter which decision is made, this plan sets up the team to take advantage and not be prevented from making a move because of the salary cap or luxury tax.

IV. Coaching decisions

The first thing to do is re-open talks with Coach Nate about a contract extension. Nate may not be the coach to get this team to a championship, but he is the right coach to bring them to a point where they need to be for that coach to come in. Most teams don’t build like the Blazers so maybe Nate will be the one, but history says at some point he will be replaced. Personally I believe he is the right coach and the coach who will bring a championship to Portland. Because of that I would offer him an extension that would make him a top 5 paid coach, with large bonuses or kickers for any finals appearance and championships won. Nate may decline again this summer, but as a team I feel the Blazers need to let Nate know that they feel he is the man to get the job done here in Portland, and there is no better way to do that then to offer him an extension.

As for Nate’s assistant coaches, I would love to bring in a big man coach to work with not only Greg, but many of the young big men this plan is bringing in. With Coach Luke’s future up in the air, I think Nate would welcome another coach in to work with the guy, but in the end this decision is left up to Nate.

V. Conclusions

Those who made it though all of my thoughts about how to bring a championship to Portland I thank you. But I also ask you to pick apart this plan, because it is only my first observation about what we should do. There are bound to be inconsistencies, and other problems that come up that I didn’t think about. Do we need another wing or is 5 enough? Do we need to bring in a defensive coach to upgrade a defense that was middle of the pack last year? Is there someone else we should take with the #8 pick? Should we even trade Sergio to New York? Can a starting line up of Hinrich, Roy, Batum, Lma, and Oden bring Portland a championship? I look forward to your thoughts Blazersedge.

The Most overlooked reason for Portland to be down 3-1

usmcr3049 — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 21:39:24 -0000

Watching the Blazers I am like any other fan, I scream at my tv when:

-The refs call crazy fouls on Oden

-Don't give Yao fouls when he hacks someone,

-When Blake dribbles too much

-When LMA pops, instead of rolls on a pick and roll

-etc, etc, etc...

But in reflecting on this series so far, it becomes clear to me why the Blazers are sitting in a 3-1 hole. They have been very close in two games in Houston, one play here, or one play there could have changed the outcome. But to my eye, that one play needs to, and can only come from one player, LaMarcus Aldridge.

He is above all other players the one who has disappointed me the most this post season. It is not a huge shock, after all this is his first playoff test, and in his career he has never handled his first test of anything extremely well. In the last two months of the season he averaged about 19ppg, 9 rpg, 2assists, 1block, shooting 48%, and 83% from the line. In the first round that has dropped to 16.5ppg, 8.3rpg, 1.3assists, 2blocks, 44% shooting and 69% from the line. So maybe his last 2 months were just a good stretch, until you see his full season avg of 18.1ppg, 7.5rpb, 1.9assist, 1block, 48%shooting and 78% from the line.

The biggest factor in his decreased production has been his inability to post up Scola and company. His FG% in the 3 losses were, 25%, 40%, and 47%, in the one win he shot 58%. This has caused his fg% to drop significatly, along with a drop in his FT attempts. For the season LMA avg 4 FT per game, take out game 2 where he got to the line 8 times and he is avg only 1.6 FT per game, include it and he only gets up to 3.25 per game, (Game 2 is the only win for the Blazers in the series if you forgot, maybe this getting to the line think works huh?). We have not seen the post moves of LMA accept for game two, where he made a few lucky shots, but still was down on the block looking for contact and playing strong. The other 3 games he has been unable or unwilling to get down and dirty, causing him to shoot 20 footers, which he is now missing regularly. it is well known that if a player can get a few easy buckets, then his jumper will start to fall with more regularity.

Roy is doing his thing, average over 28 ppg, his assists are way down though, only 2.5 per game in the playoffs compared to 5.1 during the season. As many as 3 of those assists during the season are from pick and pops where LMA hits the shot, but without him hitting, Roy doesn't get the assists. His rebounds are up, his FT% is over 90%, his blocks are up, and steals are up. Blake's stats are up as well, he is playing well, even with 2 really badly timed turnover/shots. 10.2ppg, 7.3apg, 3rpg, 47% FG, 40%3pt. That is pretty steady.

Yes Outlaw has played like a scared kitten, but Rudy could and should make up for that if Nate would let him play. Rudy is avg 20mpg in the playoffs, vs 25mpg during the season. His FG% and 3pt% are through the roof at 57% and 58% respectively. Rudy needs to play more, that is without question.

But no one can replace what LMA gives this team, the Blazers need the LMA of March and April to not only win this series, but game 5.

Playoff PER

usmcr3049 — Thu, 23 Apr 2009 22:00:43 -0000

Just thought I would point out something that many on here might not have noticed. According to Hollinger's PER rating, the Blazer playing the best in the playoffs is Brandon Roy at 29.93. Ya ya, no suprise there, but did you know that Greg Oden has been the second best Blazer at 29.23?

LMA is the next closest Blazer coming in far below at 16.64, below even his seasonal PER. It seems that only Greg and Brandon have stepped up so far this playoff season, hopefully after games 3 and 4 we will see other Blazers pick up their play.

For a frame of reference, Roy's Playoff PER is the 8th best in the NBA, and Greg's is the 9th best. Two of the top 10 are Blazers, but the next Blazer, LMA, is 54th.

Mark Stein - Likes/Dislikes of West playoff teams

usmcr3049 — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 23:48:48 -0000

Mark Stein - Likes/Dislikes of West playoff teams

I never understand this guy, he seems to always just miss "it". In this column he states that
"Complicating matters for the Blazers, who still have some holes in their defense and perimeter shooting,..."

Ok maybe we can say the defense isn't great yet, (although the last 2 months of the season it has been great, allowing the team to finish 13th out of 30 with a defensive rating of 107.8) the blazers have been amoung the top perimeter shooting teams all season! It is almost as if Mr. Stein watch a Blazer game in October and didn't see another game.
Maybe I am too sensitive, but his stuff just gets to me, because there is always something that is so off base it just makes the whole piece garbage to read, even if the rest of the column is decent, (which this mostly is).

J. Quick, Hating on BRoy?

usmcr3049 — Wed, 15 Apr 2009 18:47:29 -0000

Jason Quick put up his votes and reasons last night for all of the end of the seasno awards. And boy did he take some flack from Blazer fans, here were the major issues.

2008-09 ALL-NBA TEAM BALLOT

You have been chosen by the National Basketball Association to serve on a committee to vote for the All-NBA Team for the 2008-09 season. Please vote for the player at the position that he plays regularly. You can vote for five players on each of the three All-NBA teams. No ties may be awarded.
Five points will be awarded for a first team vote, three for second team and one for third team.

All-NBA First Team

F LeBron James
F Dirk Nowitzki
C Dwight Howard
G Dwyane Wade
G Kobe Bryant

All-NBA Second team

F-Carmelo Anthony
F-Chris Bosh
C-Yao Ming
G-Deron Williams
G-Chris Paul

All-NBA Third Team

F Pau Gasol
F Kevin Durant
C Shaquille O'Neal
G Chauncey Billups
G Brandon Roy

Quick admitted later on that putting Durant on the 3rd team ahead of Tim Duncan was a mistake that he corrected with the NBA, but he stood by his vote for Deron Williams on the Second team all nba, over our own BRoy. Here is the money quote for me,

think most of you who follow my coverage of the team through The Oregonian, the Quick Chats on OregonLive and my segments on The Fan all know what I think of Roy. I think he is amazing. Exceptional. One of the best around.

I also happen to have as much respect for Deron Williams.

Now, there are a couple of factors that clouded my decision, which probably aren't fair, but as you all know, I'm pretty straightforward and not afraid to admit mistakes. I make them all the time.

First off, I will admit there was some extra caution in trying NOT to be a homer. I try to check myself throughout the year in whether I'm becoming biased toward a Blazers player, coach or front office personnel. Am I looking and evaluating these people as I would say, a person from the Lakers ... or Bucks ... or Nets? So yeah, there was probably an element - an element - of me not wanting to show favoritism toward Roy.

Second, I will admit that I probably allowed past performances to cloud my pick of Williams for second team. This honor, and vote, should be about this season.

But Williams won me over during the 2007 playoffs, when he led the Jazz to the Western Conference Finals while averaging 19.2 points and 8.6 assists. Then again, last season, he was brilliant in the playoffs, averaging 21.6 points and 10 assists in 12 playoff games. And he was an Olympian. All of that sticks with me when I think of him.

Personally I think this happens alot during these "popularity contests", um....I mean awards. Basically voters tend to reward players for previous years accomplishments, and us as fans do the same thing in the All-Star voting. But ofcourse when that happen these same, "experts" bash the fans for not picking that years all-star caliber players. Quick gives more reasons so make sure you read his how argument.

The other main issue I have with Quick's votes, and many other fans too if you read the comments, is this,

2008-09 NBA MOST IMPROVED PLAYER AWARD
PRESENTED BY KIA MOTORS BALLOT

You have been chosen by the National Basketball Association to serve on a committee to vote for the NBA Most Improved Player Award Presented by Kia Motors for the 2008-09 season.
This award is designed to honor an up-and-coming player who has made a dramatic improvement from the previous season or seasons. It is not intended to be given to a player who has made a "comeback."
Please vote for three players. Five points will be awarded for a first place vote, three for second and one for third.

PLAYER TEAM
1. Devin Harris New Jersey
2.Rajon Rondo Boston
3.Paul Millsap Utah

Basically I think Quick took the easy way out on his votes, he hasn't watch any bball except the Blazers and aparently his anti-homer radar won't let him vote for a Blazer even though Roy is very deserving. Quick gave no reasoning behind these picks in his follow up piece, so we can only speculate as to why he voted the way he did when so, many, others were able to clearly show why our own BRoy deserves very serious consideration for the award.

SB Nation User Blog: usmcr3049

Salary Cap Question:

Salary Cap Question:

Leon Powe

Leon Powe

OT: Comcast

OT: Comcast

A **Revised** Plan for the future

Kobe better than MJ? Really???

Kobe better than MJ? Really???

A plan for the Future.

The Most overlooked reason for Portland to be down 3-1

Playoff PER

Mark Stein - Likes/Dislikes of West playoff teams

Mark Stein - Likes/Dislikes of West playoff teams

J. Quick, Hating on BRoy?

A Revised Plan for the future