utesfan100
Jun 16, 2008 Dec 06, 2011 667 1920
Ben Prather earned his BS in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Utah in 1998 and has been a Utah fan since 1995.
His accomplishments include having self taught himself GWBASIC and writing his first (NFL) computer ranking program by age 14 and representing the University of Utah in the 2000 ACM International Collegiate Programming Contest (while pursuing a second BS degree that was not completed). He was also captain of the Gulf Coast Community College (Florida)'s "Brain Bowl" team in 1995, where he graduated cum laude.
He began blogging on college football for Fanblogs.com in the spring of 2004, just in time to watch his team's historic breakout season.
He is currently employed as part of the Gulf Coast Community College's Success Center and adjuncts for the mathematics department.
Since June 2008 he has spent his spring, summer and winter breaks examining the BCS vs. playoff debate while honing and present his own postseason ideas. These designs led to the formation of "BCS Evolution" in October 2009, which he maintains in his spare time.
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Utah-BYU series
The last two times the Utah-BYU rivalry was decided by 20 or more points the winner has won a BCS bowl.
Final BCS Rankings Prediction: After Oregon And Auburn, Who Goes Where?
BCS Rankings: Questions Answered By Week 14 Standings
by Ben Prather on Nov 28, 2010 9:23 PM EST
This morning I posed a few questions that would be answered when tonight's standings came out. The Auburn Tigers passed the Oregon Ducks, by a thread. (One coach or two Harris voters, to be precise.) But that really does not matter: either is still in the championship game with a win next week.
Who Is 4th?
Stanford. And with a good cushion. With the third through ninth teams off this week, it is highly unlikely that the gap of 0.0228 between Stanford and Wisconsin can be overcome.
This means Stanford will be guaranteed a BCS bowl.
Who Will Win The Big Ten?
Wisconsin. With a gap of 0.0553 between the Badgers and Buckeyes, Ohio State would need to gain more than a ranking spot across the board. That won't happen.
Who Will Win the Big 12 South?
Oklahoma. And it was not as close as I projected.
Can Boise State Become BCS Eligible?
Yes, but there are only two at-large spots (thanks, Stanford) and the Sugar Bowl is unlikely to let them go by. Or to pick Boise State.
Who Will Be BCS Eligible?
The Auburn Tigers, Oregon Ducks, TCU Horned Frogs, Stanford Cardinal, Wisconsin Badgers, Ohio St. Buckeyes, Arkansas Razorbacks, Michigan St. Spartans, Oklahoma Sooners, LSU Tigers, Boise St. Broncos, Missouri Tigers, Nebraska Cornhuskers, and Oklahoma State Cowboys.
Or, well, that list minus the Big 12 Championship Game loser. If the Virginia Tech Hokies beat Florida State, they will take the 14th spot. If Virginia Tech loses, the Alabama Crimson Tide should take the spot.
Who Will Be In A BCS Bowl?
We will find out next week. Here is my guess.
BCS Championship Game: Auburn vs. Oregon
Rose Bowl: TCU vs. Wisconsin
Sugar Bowl: Arkansas vs. Ohio State
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Connecticut
Fiesta Bowl: Nebraska vs. Stanford
Contingencies
If Oregon loses, TCU and Oregon will swap places. If Auburn also loses South Carolina will also replace Arkansas in the Sugar Bowl.
If Oregon wins and Auburn loses, TCU will move to the BCS National Championship Game, Stanford to the Rose Bowl, Connecticut to the Fiesta Bowl, Auburn to the Orange Bowl, and South Carolina will replace Arkansas in the Sugar Bowl.
If FSU beats Virginia Tech, it will take the ACC's spot in the Orange Bowl.
If Oklahoma beats Nebraska, it will play in the Fiesta Bowl.
West Virginia and Pittsburgh have chances to replace Connecticut should the Huskies lose, without other changes to bowl positions.
BCS Standings Projection: Boise State And LSU Fall, Providing Clarity
BCS Standings: Expert Analysis Of The Week 13 Standings And The Big Ten Race
by Ben Prather on Nov 21, 2010 9:22 PM EST
Well, I was clearly mistaken this morning. The Wisconsin Badgers have a solid lead in this week's rankings that next week's games can not overcome. The only way Wisconsin should lose the Big Ten is with a loss or a loss by the Ohio State Buckeyes.
I also appeared to be overly generous this week to the Alabama Crimson Tide and Arkansas Razorbacks, lifting them past the Michigan State Spartans.
The Boise State Broncos still appears poised to pass the TCU Horned Frogs next week, with a win over the Nevada Wolf Pack. The gap between them and the LSU Tigers has actually grown, significantly reducing LSU's BCS National Championship Game odds.
Last year TCU and Boise State broke conventional wisdom by both being selected for a BCS bowl with eligible teams from automatic qualifying conferences being eligible. It is looking very likely that that precedent could repeat itself this year. With both teams fronting the Mountain West Conference next year, this opens the door to the question, what do you do with a non-BCS automatic qualifier conference that consistently produces two compelling BCS-eligible teams?
BCS Standings Projection: Week 13 Rankings Should Elevate Ohio State
by Ben Prather on Nov 21, 2010 11:52 AM EST
in 2010 College Football Polls
BCS Rankings: Expert Analysis Of The Week 12 Standings
by Ben Prather on Nov 14, 2010 9:04 PM EST
Apparently, I overestimated the impact the Alabama Crimson Tide would get from their win over the Mississippi State Bulldogs. For the first time in ten years, the top 10 in the BCS standings has remained unchanged from one week to the next. As I said this morning:
This week was one of the most static in the BCS standings I have ever seen. One has to go to #13 Iowa to find the highest ranked team to lose. Of the six top 25 teams that lost, three lost to another top 25 team. One lost to ineligible, but non trivial USC. The highest ranked team to play a ranked opponent was #1 Alabama.
The Oregon Ducks and Auburn Tigers held the top two spots. The Boise State Broncos closed in on the TCU Horned Frogs, as expected. A win over the Nevada Wolf Pack should be enough to push Boise State over the top. The LSU Tigers are closing in on TCU and Boise State and could be competitive for a BCS National Championship Game spot with a win over the Arkansas Razorbacks.
Another open question is the Big Ten's Rose Bowl race. The Wisconsin Badgers are the leader, but the Ohio State Buckeyes could take the lead in the BCS standings with a win over Iowa. A loss by the Michigan State Spartans would make this irrelevasnt, as Wisconsin would then win the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Incidentally, the game this next week with the biggest long-term BCS impact might not even involve teams in contention for a BCS bowl game. Tuesday night, I will take a look at the impact a win by the San Diego State Aztecs over the Utah Utes could have on the Mountain West conference's bid for an automatic qualification for 2012 and 2013.
BCS Rankings Projection: Standings Should Be Static, TCU Takes A Hit
by Ben Prather on Nov 14, 2010 11:32 AM EST
in 2010 College Football Polls
BCS Standings Analysis: TCU Separates From Boise State
by Ben Prather on Nov 7, 2010 8:53 PM EST
The college football rankings are in and the BCS rankings have been compiled. The order of the top four are unchanged, but the numbers show some strong movement. Also, an error in this morning's final BCS standings projections must be addressed.
Last week, the Oregon Ducks and Auburn Tigers were close, with a full two average spots in the rankings separating them from the TCU Horned Frogs and Boise State Broncos. This week, TCU pulled within one ranking spot of Oregon and Auburn, with Boise State left behind.
In fact, Boise State's in a bit of trouble in general. LSU has come within a few spots of the Broncos, enough to be a scare. If Auburn loses twice and LSU wins the SEC Championship Game, that could be enough to push a one-loss LSU outfit past Boise State. After that scenario, though, no one else is a serious threat to pass TCU and Boise State, the unbeaten non-automatic qualifying conference leaders.
Basically, what you see is what you get: Oregon, Auburn, TCU, and Boise State are your BCS National Championship Game contenders, in that order, and that quartet will be impossible for any other team to crack.
Also, this morning I inexplicably neglected Nebraska in the projected final BCS standings race. The Nebraska Cornhuskers should appear between LSU and Stanford.
BCS Rankings Projection: Top Four Unchanged, But Separation Growing
by Ben Prather on Nov 7, 2010 11:18 AM EST
in 2010 College Football Polls
BCS Rankings: Analysis On The Notable Teams
by Ben Prather on Oct 31, 2010 9:06 PM EDT
As predicted, the Oregon Ducks passed the Auburn Tigers in the official BCS standings. The TCU Horned Frogs also passed the Boise St. Broncos, but both remain close. More surprisingly, the Utah Utes pass the Alabama Crimson Tide. Either Utah or TCU will lose next week and Alabama has a chance to make a move with LSU on the docket.
What is truly surprising, though, is how much the gap between sixth and seventh has evaporated. There was some shuffling among the next group of teams, but with a measurement error of roughly 0.0200 the BCS average indicates they are practically tied, so ordinal differences do not mean very much.
The Nebraska Cornhuskers, Oklahoma Sooners, Wisconsin Badgers, LSU Tigers, Ohio State Buckeyes, Missouri Tigers and Michigan State Spartans remain on the extreme fringe of the championship race. They are all likely to pass Utah if they win out. None of this alters the projected national championship race as presented this morning, but the much larger impact of next week's games might.
Another line worth watching the rest of the season is which teams are in the race for a BCS at-large berth. The Iowa Hawkeyes, Oklahoma State Cowboys, Arkansas Razorbacks, South Carolina Gamecocks and Mississippi State Bulldogs have climbed into this picture, while the Florida State Seminoles fell out with a loss to North Carolina State.
The Wolfpack are the only team appearing this week that was not ranked last week, replacing the Miami Hurricanes, after their loss to Virginia.
BCS Standings Projection: Oregon To Pass Auburn For Top Spot
by Ben Prather on Oct 31, 2010 11:47 AM EDT
in 2010 College Football Polls
BCS Standings: As Expected, Auburn Is Number One, Oregon Number Two
by Ben Prather on Oct 24, 2010 9:13 PM EDT
The entire top 10 came in as expected in this mornings projections. The gap between Auburn and Oregon was a bit surprising, and will be insurmountable without an Auburn loss. The entire top six is fairly close, and this is especially true for second through fourth.
Oregon, Boise State and TCU are within a single computer vote of each other. TCU has the next ranked opponent in Utah, but USC should give Oregon enough padding to fend them off. Boise State has no such cushion. TCU should pass Boise State next week with a win over any Mountain West conference team.
Michigan State and Missouri both enter the BCS Championship Game race, being within a few computer votes of the top group of teams. Michigan State faces Iowa and Missouri plays Nebraska next week. Wins here could push them up to a mess of teams that will be claiming the second spot next week.
Alabama, Utah, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Ohio State and LSU were also clustered together and round out the national title contenders. Thus, the line described but left vague this morning is drawn here.
The rest of the standings are made up of teams in the running for a BCS bowl as an at-large participant, but with easier routes to those berths through their conference championships. The automatic qualification races have been rehashed and are posted at BCS Evolution.
BCS Standings Projection: Auburn And Oregon Should Top This Week's Rankings
BCS Standings Recap: Oklahoma Takes Control Of Its National Championship Hopes
BCS Projected Standings: Boise State Expected To Top First Official BCS Rankings Of 2010
BCS Standings: Trouble Brewing For Powerful SEC, Predicts BCS Insider
by Ben Prather on Oct 12, 2010 9:49 AM EDT
in 2010 College Football Polls
College Football Rankings: BCS Insider Has Ohio State, Oklahoma Battling For No. 2 Spot
by Ben Prather on Oct 5, 2010 9:32 AM EDT
in 2010 College Football Polls
BCS Insider: Boise State Usurps the No. 2 Ranking; Can They Keep It?
by Ben Prather on Sep 28, 2010 12:42 AM EDT
in 2010 College Football Polls
Inside The BCS: Alabama, Texas Now Favorites To Play In BCS Championship
by Ben Prather on Sep 21, 2010 10:10 AM EDT
in 2010 College Football Polls
Predicting the Season: Final BCS Summary
by Ben Prather on Sep 2, 2010 1:01 AM EDT
on Mountain West Connection
This post is being promoted to the front page. It is from BCS Evolution who is adding BCS ramifications each week to be posted here. Make sure to visit their site.
About darn time we stop talking about fake games and start looking at real games!
66% or more counts as a win. Anything between 34% and 66% is a toss up, and will be discussed as variable.
The UNLV Hawaii game is bumped into this week, as a seperate post for one game would be silly. Not that this exercise is not silly in an of itself, but I have to draw the line somewhere.
In week thirteen, TCU demolished New Mexico and SDSU beat UNLV. Utah and BYU played another close rivalry game, as the final MWC conference game for both. UNLV was too close to call against Hawaii in week 14.
In other non AQ conferences, Boise State got a test against Nevada while Houston faced Texas Tech. In week 14 Boise State handled Utah State while Houston fought it out in the C-USA championship game.
Projected BCS rankings
Rankings are based on the record preceding each team name.
Records with less than a 5% chance based on the polling are omitted.
12-0 Boise State: #3
12-0 TCU: #4
13-0 Houston: #6
11-1 Boise State: #6
11-1 TCU: #11
11-1 Utah: #11
12-1 Houston: #13
10-2 Utah: #16
10-2 TCU: #18
10-2 Houston: #19
10-2 Boise State: #19
10-2 Air Force #23
9-3 Utah: #24
9-3 TCU: #25
9-3 Boise State: #25
A 9-3 Air Force could get votes.
Unexpected teams may still be in the top 25 from the WAC, MAC or Sun Belt. A C-USA team or two (less unexpected) should sneak in as well. Yesterday's comments pointed out that Navy would not be unexpected here and deserves specific recognition. None of these should be higher than #12.
One would likely be available if BYU, the MWC and Houston all fail to make the cut. Most likely this would be the C-USA winner, who beat Houston in the C-USA championship game.
2 Teams 'til Kickoff: Ohio State
Check out BCS Evolution's look at the Buckeyes, with some input from myself and Johnathan Franz over at Off Tackle Empire.
Predicting the Season: BCS Summary Week Twelve
by Ben Prather on Sep 1, 2010 12:34 AM EDT
on Mountain West Connection
This post is being promoted to the front page. It is from BCS Evolution who is adding BCS ramifications each week to be posted here. Make sure to visit their site.
66% or more counts as a win. Anything between 34% and 66% is a toss up, and will be discussed as variable.
In week twelve, Air Force shock and awed UNLV, Utah took down SDSU and BYU took care of New Mexico. Wyoming had a close game against CSU and TCU took their only BYE week.
In other non AQ conferences, Boise State got a test against Fresno State while Houston faced Southern Mississippi.
Projected BCS rankings
Rankings are based on the record preceding each team name.
Records with less than a 5% chance based on the polling are omitted.
10-0 Boise State: #3
11-0 TCU: #4
9-1 Boise State: #8
11-0 Houston: #9
10-1 TCU: #12
10-1 Utah: #14
9-2 TCU: #20
9-2 Utah: #20
8-2 Boise State: #21
10-2 Air Force #25
Boise State, Utah or TCU might get significant numbers of votes with three losses.
Unexpected teams may still be in the top 25 from the WAC, MAC or Sun Belt. A C-USA team or two (less unexpected) should sneak in as well. Yesterday's comments pointed out that Navy would not be unexpected here and deserves specific recognition. None of these should be higher than #13.
Essentially these teams will percolate at near #25 all season.
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How does the loss of BYU impact the MWC's BCS numbers?
The MWC might not be as dead as you think.
Predicting the Season: BCS Summary Week Eleven
by Ben Prather on Aug 30, 2010 10:04 PM EDT
on Mountain West Connection
This post is being promoted to the front page. It is from BCS Evolution who is adding BCS ramifications each week to be posted here. Make sure to visit their site.
Well, I guess one week per day as I catch up here is in order. I guess a sprint to the finish is going to be hard to keep up with!
66% or more counts as a win. Anything between 34% and 66% is a toss up, and will be discussed as variable.
In week eleven, Air Force downed New Mexico, TCU took down SDSU and Wyoming took care of UNLV. BYU had another close game against CSU and Utah was close, but short, of a clear victory against Notre Dame.
In other non AQ conferences, Boise State got a rest against Idaho and Houston gets tested by Tulsa.
Projected BCS rankings
Rankings are based on the record preceding each team name.
Records with less than a 5% chance based on the polling are omitted.
9-0 Boise State: #3
11-0 TCU: #4
8-1 Boise State: #9
10-0 Houston: #10
10-1 TCU: #12
9-1 Utah: #14
8-2 TCU: #21
8-2 Utah: #22
7-2 Boise State: #23
8-2 Air Force would get votes, as might Boise State, Utah or TCU with three losses.
Unexpected teams may still be in the top 25 from the WAC, MAC or Sun Belt. A C-USA team or two (less unexpected) should sneak in as well. Yesterday's comments pointed out that Navy would not be unexpected here and deserves specific recognition. None of these should be higher than #13.
Essentially these teams will percolate at near #25 all season.
4 Teams 'til Kickoff: Virginia Tech
I would like to thank furrer4heisman, once again, for taking the time to give a brief look at the Virginia Tech 2010 football team for the Teams 'til Kickoff series!
As Virginia Tech was the last ACC team in the listing, the ACC BCS number breakdown by team is available today as well!
Predicting the Season: BCS Summary Week Ten
by Ben Prather on Aug 30, 2010 12:21 AM EDT
on Mountain West Connection
This post is being promoted to the front page. It is from BCS Evolution who is adding BCS ramifications each week to be posted here. Make sure to visit their site.
Well, I guess one week per day as I catch up here is in order. I guess a sprint to the finish is going to be hard to keep up with!
66% or more counts as a win. Anything between 34% and 66% is a toss up, and will be discussed as variable.
In week ten, Air Force DEMOLISHED Army and Wyoming embarrassed New Mexico. TCU vs. Utah, BYU vs. UNLV and SDSU vs. CSU were all very close.
In other non AQ conferences, Boise State got a test vs. Hawaii and Houston scores a win over UCF.
Projected BCS rankings
Rankings are based on the record preceding each team name.
Records with less than a 5% chance based on the polling are omitted.
8-0 Boise State: #3
10-0 TCU: #4
9-0 Utah: #8
7-1 Boise State: #9
9-0 Houston: #11
9-1 TCU: #13
8-1 Utah: #17
7-2 TCU: #23
6-2 Boise State: #24
7-2 Utah: #25
7-2 BYU or 8-2 Air Force would get votes, as might Boise State, Utah or TCU with three losses.
Unexpected teams will still be in the top 25 from the WAC, MAC or Sun Belt. A C-USA team or two (less unexpected) might sneak in as well. None higher than #14.
Essentially these teams will percolate at near #25 all season.
A 7-2 BYU is close to the cutoff of 5%. (Actually below, but I am endowing them with a Utah State credit)
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