SB Nation User Blog: utesfan100

BCS News and highlights:

utesfan100 — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 05:18:28 -0000

The BCS Race:

The Big East deserves some respect | courier-journal.com | The Courier-Journal: The Big East is getting it done on the field and in the polls.
Going for two: From BCS standpoint, a worst for Big 12 - KansasCity.com: The worst year for the Big 12 in the BCS era.
College Football Picks Week 11 Alert: Midshipmen Sink Irish BCS Plans | Sports Odds: Notre Dame [finally] eliminated for BCS consideration
Football Moves Up One Spot in BCS Rankings - LSUsports.net - The Official Web Site of LSU Tigers Athletics: Teams moving down the polls with a win is not unheard of. How about moving up with a loss?

BCS Heat:

Georgia Tech coach wants a playoff | ajc.com: Add another one to my list of prominent coaches for a playoff.
Analysis - College Football Season Sputtering to a Finish - News Analysis - NYTimes.com: "The college football season is like great movie with the best casting and CGI, were the screen writers drop the ball in the final resolution. It is entertaining and you feel like you got your moneys worth, but the ending leaves you hungry for something even better." - unknown
Column: BCS problems already piling up in 2009 | The Kentucky Kernel : an outline of potential conflicts

Fight gets political on college football playoff | College Sports | Chron.com - Houston Chronicle: A review of last year's congressional hearing with some contextual highlights from this season.

Piling on the refs:

To err is human -- and potentially lucrative for your conference - CBSSports.com

Final Coaches Poll Votes to Remain Public

utesfan100 — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 01:57:42 -0000

You may have heard that the AFCA decided they would stop publishing the final votes for the Coaches Poll starting next year. It is more likely that you missed that the BCS strongly opposed this move.

This decision was one the coaches were eager to accept as soon as gallop made the recommendation. Other recommendations, like reducing the poll to 15, were ignored. The BCS opposed this because they want transparency in the voting process.

Personally, I was hoping this was the beginning of a rift between the coaches and the BCS that would lead the BCS dropping the coaches poll as a component of its formula and the AFCA taking their trophy and its credibility from the BCS championship game.

Well, that did not happen, as the coaches will make their final ballots public after all.

The final ballots need to be public if they are used to determine seedings or determine the BCS revenue distribution to mitigate against conflicts of interest that coaches representing schools with significant financial ties to other parties they could then have influence in the outcome of by their vote.

More on the conflicts of interest currently present in college football after the jump (think: SEC refs)

As big of a conflict of interest as having coaches vote for which of their teams and conference members should be ranked high enough for a top bowl may appear, this is not the biggest conflict of interest present in the current system.

The biggest conflict of interest is the position of "Bowl Championship Series coordinator." This position rotates among the conference commissioners who hold the office for two years at a time. Chief among the duties of this office is to defend the BCS when critics arise, presenting real conflicts of interest in recent years as those critics come from the coordinator's own conference.

ACC commissioner John Swofford will be passing the reigns to first year Big East commissioner John Marinatto. Having a commissioner at the helm who has never participated in any of the prior discussions at a time when political pressure is mounting is what lead to earlier reports that the BCS might hire a full time person to fill this role. It should be noted that the PAC 10 and BIG 10 have refused to take a turn at the helm.

Some have speculated that former Big East commissioner Mike Tranghese might be a good fit for this job, but BCS Administrator Bill Hancock would be another excellent choice with experience an knowledge of what actually has happened in the past.

The most egregious conflict of interest is conference hired officiating crews. Usually the home team is responsible for hiring the officiating crew and usually they hire the local talent. Even worse, in conference games it is often the case that the winner of the game can significantly influence the expected bowl revenues and image of the conference as a whole. Having officiating crews hired and trained by the conference presents a large possibility for moral hazard.

Think Pittsburgh vs. West Virginia 2007, Oregon @ Oklahoma 2006, Utah @ Arizona 2002. Or the SEC scandals of 2009.

That Utah game is likely to be unfamiliar to you. It made the ESPN highlight reals showing that Utah had made a catch, by NFL standards, that was called out of bounds. A couple of weeks later it was disclosed that the umpire of that game was a long time Arizona booster.

Sometimes the local talent is good to the home team. They are the ones that cut the check.

The Big 12, MWC and WAC have worked to form the College Football Officiating LLC. C-USA has jumped on board. I really see no choice for the SEC but to sign on if they want to maintain any sense of credibility for the future.

Conference maintained officiating makes sense for a sport with limited funding that can't afford the added costs of maintaining a national corp of officials. College football brings in $2.3 billion a year directly to the member institutions plus significantly more to the local communities. They can afford to organize a national officiating organization.

And the smaller, less wealthy, conferences already are.

Unfortunately the Fresno State-Wisconsin game in 2008 had indicators they might not be entirely above reproach.

If I Were King: November 9, 2009 - My BCS Alternative

utesfan100 — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 23:52:05 -0000

[This is a weekly feature exploring what the BCS standings would look like if my proposed designs were in effect.]

First of all, what is the deal with a tropical storm in November. Really? And it is a cold rain. Every tropical storm I have ever been in has been a warm soaking rain. Just saying. Cold November Rain? There was a day when I would have called that an oxymoron. The days of the powdered mountains of Utah.

The days before Urban Meyer awoke a state to the potential of their program, when I first dabbled in crafting rankings of my own and watched as the MWC and BCS formed simultaneously and in a destined collision coarse. The days I first wanted a change in the BCS and for the MWC to bust it wide open.

11 years latter, here is how the leading design I have crafted would work if the season ended today:

Qualifying teams: 6

Top group: Florida, Alabama, Texas
Undefeated: TCU, Cincinnati, Boise State

Tournament:

Florida and Alabama would receive a first round bye and be seeded into the Sugar Bowl and Fiesta Bowl respectively.

Texas would host Boise State.
TCU would host Cincinnati.

The lowest seeded team to advance would play Florida in the Sugar Bowl, with the other team meeting Alabama in the Fiesta Bowl. The winners of these games would go to the National Championship game.

The Rose Bowl would have Oregon and Iowa
The Orange Bowl would have Georgia Tech and an at-large (likely USC)

What would the actual championship race be like in this design and a look at the plus-one I presented last week next:

The season does not end this week

If my plan was in effect, who would be satisfied they had a reasonable chance at the tournament? Certainly all six undefeated teams would know they had a direct path ahead of them. Florida and Alabama will play in the SEC championship game if neither loses, so at least one will lose a game. If Texas or the eventual SEC champion loses a game this opens the door for the next pack of teams. The question becomes who could join this group of teams.

It is not out of the question that Cincinnati could close enough of the gap to make it not qualify as significant by the standards I have defined. The loser of the SEC championship game could help to fill the void as well.

Any of the top three teams could end up in this group with a single loss in their remaining games. USC and the Ohio State vs. Iowa winner would be likely to join it with continued wins. This is a total of ten teams that would have a shot at the tournament at this point in the season.

Not bad. Lets also take a look at the plus-one design I forged last week:

All teams better than 10-2 would be able to play 2 bowl games. This is the only NCAA rule change required to allow this to happen. This model assumes the top 15 would finish better than 10-2.

The semifinals would be Florida vs. TCU and Alabama vs. Texas. The winners would go to the national championship game and the losers would participate in the traditional BCS bowls.

Currently all BCS conferences are on pace to have a champion with 10 wins. The SEC and Big 12 champions are in the semi-finals. The next two automatic qualifying champions are Cincinnati and Georgia Tech. Georgia Tech would be placed in the Orange Bowl and Cincinnati would be guaranteed a spot in the BCS selection pool. Both would be free to play a pre-Christmas bowl without risking these bids.

No conference has more than three teams in the top 14, so they are all available. Selecting the highest ranked teams we get Boise State, LSU, USC, Iowa, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Oregon and Miami in the four newly christened regional first round games.

Mid-West: Iowa vs. Oregon
North: Ohio State vs. Pittsburgh
South: LSU vs. Miami
West Coast: Boise State vs. USC

The winners would advance to be selected by BCS bowls and the losers would be selected by four bowls electing to leaving a spot open for a later pick when the initial round of selections were made.

Notice that half of the BCS bowl participants would have to win their way into the game. This would help to accentuate their merit as a stand alone regional championship in their own right. They would still have the rights to pick first among the members of their traditional conference tie-ins if at least one qualifies.

This looks much better than allowing 6-6 team to be on equal footing for bowl eligibility as a winning team to me.

Poll

Weekly preference poll:

BCS Standings: November 8, 2009 + BCS Races and Analysis

utesfan100 — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 19:18:24 -0000

Gaps in the standings indicate standings differences more than 0.06 in the standings.

Notes are made for the highest ranked teams from each conference, independents (ind), and all non-automatic qualifying conference members. (non-AQ)

Team must be in the top 14 to be eligible for a BCS at-large bid.

Rank	Team	BCS Average	BCS Top 25 Teams Remaining	Notes
1	Florida	.9842	Alabama	SEC #1
2	Alabama	.9516	Florida
3	Texas	.9234	None	Big 12 #1

4	TCU	.8620	Utah	MWC #1, non-AQ #1
5	Cincinnati	.8580	Pittsburgh, West Virginia	Big East #1
6	Boise State	.8126	None	WAC #1, non-AQ
7	Georgia Tech	.7552	None	ACC #1

8	LSU	.6138	None
9	USC	.5922	Arizona
10	Iowa	.5745	Ohio State	Big Ten #1
11	Ohio State	.5733	Iowa
12	Pittsburgh	.5628	Cincinnati, West Virginia
13	Oregon	.5318	Arizona, Oregon State	PAC 10 #1

14	Miami (FL)	.4712	South Florida
--- BCS Eligibility Line ---
15	Houston	.4691	None	C-USA #1, non-AQ

16	Utah	.4003	TCU, BYU	non-AQ

17	Arizona	.3363	USC, Oregon
18	Penn State	.3350	None
19	Oklahoma State	.2909	None
20	Wisconsin	.2334	None
21	Virginia Tech	.2331	None

22	BYU	.1236	Utah	non-AQ
23	Oregon St.	.1231	Oregon
24	South Florida	.1084	Miami (FL)
25	West Virginia	.0653	Cincinnati, Pittsburgh

Number of top 25 teams per conference:
4: Big East, PAC 10, Big 10
3: SEC, MWC, ACC
2: Big 12
1: WAC, C-USA
0: MAC, Sun Belt

What this all means after the jump...

The standings managed to get a significant shake-up this week due to a large number of losses. The clusters of teams largely remain intact and moved up as teams fell around them.

Race to the National Championship Game

My estimated NCG lineups have changed slightly, mostly as a result of pruning the teams that have eliminated themselves. Also, The Big 12 has not been strong enough to boost Texas as I had anticipated and the SEC championship game participants have been set.

The second batch of teams would be close enough that public sentiment at the time of the final standings would have the final say.

Florida
Alabama
Texas
Florida with a loss
Alabama with a loss
Texas with a loss
Cincinnati
TCU
Georgia Tech
Boise State

Race to the BCS Automatic Qualifications

Currently only teams within one game behind are included. Other teams may still be able to win their conferences.

This much is certain: none of the conference races (except maybe C-USA) are anywhere near as complicated as the ACC was last year this time.

ACC Atlantic	W-L	GB	Conference Losses
Clemson	4-2	0.0	Maryland, Georgia Tech
Boston College	3-2	0.5	Clemson, Virginia Tech
ACC Coastal
Georgia Tech	6-1	0.0	Miami(FL)
Closest		1.5

Georgia Tech appears to have clear sailing to the ACC Championship game, with Clemson's lead for the more competitive Atlantic division race solidifying.

Big 12 North	W-L	GB	Conference Losses
Kansas St.	4-2	0.0	Oklahoma, Texas Tech
Nebraska	3-2	0.5	Iowa State, Texas Tech
Big 12 South
Texas	5-0	0.0	None
Okklahoma St.	4-1	1.0	Texas

Texas is in the solid lead in the South and Kansas State has a slight lead in the North. The Kansas State Nebraska rivalry game might end up becomming a Big 12 semifinal game.

Big East	W-L	GB	Conference Losses
Cincinnati	5-0	0.0	None
Pittsburgh	5-0	0.0	None

The winner of this game will likely earn the Big East title and a BCS berth.

Big 10	W-L	GB	Conference Losses
Iowa	5-1	0.0	Northwestern
Ohio St.	5-1	0.0	Purdue
Penn St.	4-2	1.0	Iowa, Ohio State
Wisconsin	4-2	1.0	Iowa, Ohio State

The winner of the Ohio State Iowa game this week will have a commanding lead in the Big 10 race. Penn State and Wisconsin do not play this year.

If Ohio State defeates Iowa this week, both Rose Bowl participants will have at least two losses this year.

PAC 10	W-L	GB	Conference Losses
Oregon	5-1	0.0	Stanford
Arizona	4-1	0.5	Washington
Stanford	5-2	0.5	Arizona, Oregon State
USC	4-2	1.0	Oregon, Washington
Oregon St.	4-2	1.0	Arizona, USC

Stanfords upset of Oregon once again stirred the PAC 10 race. The Oregon-Arizona winner will have a clear shot at the Rose Bowl.

SEC East	W-L	GB	Conference Losses
Florida (Clinched)	7-0	0.0	None
SEC West
Alabama (Clinched)	6-0	0.0	None

With 2 games left and a three game lead we can call the SEC East for Florida now. The winner of the LSU-Alabama game will have the lead in the West and alabama could secure an insurmountable two game lead with the head to head tie breaker.

The race for the top non-automatic qualifying team

No change here this week. TCU has taken the lead for that spot reserved for those without a conference automatic qualification and will keep that lead unless they lose. Boise State is next in line. Utah can settle it on the field against TCU but would still need a Boise State loss. Houston would need a Boise State loss and a loss by the eventual winner of the TCU-Utah game to be guaranteed a spot. Even then, they might not be ahead of TCU.

Guarantee clause for #3 and #4 Spots

If Cincinnati loses and both TCU and Boise State win out, the loser of the SEC championship game could possibly fall to #5 and put TCU and Boise State at #3 and #4. A Georgia Tech loss might be needed as well. As it is currently worded, only teams from conferences with an automatic qualification would qualify for this exception. I frankly don't think this case was seriously entertained prior to my post last week and suspect that this rule may be clarified after the First Selection Teleconference on November 24th.

Either way, if this event happens and both don't get an invite things might get heated for the BCS folks. They might choose to avoid this and select the second as an at-large. Rumors of the Fiesta Bowl entertaining the thought of a Pointsettia Bowl rematch if Texas goes to the NCG and a second Big 12 team is not available have made the rounds.

The race for the three remaining the at-large berths

All teams in the top 20 should expect that winning their games is all they need to become eligible for a BCS berth.

Some interesting rules come into play if the top 14 become constrained due to the provision that a conference may not qualify a third team as an at-large selection. After the seven guaranteed spots discussed above only three BCS spots remain. This is unlikely as the SEC will qualify a second team and the Big 10 and PAC 10 look set to qualify one as well. The ACC and Big East could have an eligible team as well.

Should the automatic qualifying conferences fail to fill all these slots a second or even third team from outside the automatic qualifying conferences would likely be available this year.

BCS Standings Projections and poll release open thread.

utesfan100 — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 02:43:00 -0000

Alabama took care of the LSU tigers, clinching an Alabama vs. Florida SEC championship game. Ohio State delivered a likely knockout punch to Penn State. Iowa lost a QB and their first game at home facing Northwestern. Stanford upset upstart Oregon. Navy drove another nail into Notre Dame's coffin.

How will the BCS standings shake out this week? For a second opinion I recommend BCS GURU.

1) Florida Gators. With a solid lead in the standings and a win Florida should remain at the top this week.

2) Alabama Crimson Tide. Texas passed Alabama last week with a quality win over Oklahoma State. Alabama will return that favor due to the respect earned at the expense of LSU.

3) Texas Longhorns. Texas will be ready to fill in for whoever loses the SEC championship game.

4) TCU Horned Frogs. I will admit the next three teams are close.

5) Cincinnati Bearcats.

6) Boise St. Broncos.

7) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. Darwinian theory. Survival of the fittest. Or survive and advance.

8) USC Trojans. Again we get a tough group of four teams to sort out as teams that are falling after a loss are extremely difficult to accurately divine.

9) LSU Tigers. Lots of losses around them and a loss to a respectable opponent allow them to hold their ground with a loss.

10) Iowa Hawkeyes.

11) Ohio St. Buckeyes. A win over a solid Penn State puts Ohio State into this group of teams.

12) Oregon Ducks. I originally wanted to put them lower in this next batch of four teams between Houston and Miami (FL), but could not see the voters putting them behind a Utah team they beat earlier this season.

13) Utah Utes.

14) Houston Cougars.

15) Miami Hurricanes.

[Edited to correct for Houston not losing to Tulsa]

Coaches poll to remain public

utesfan100 — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 01:32:11 -0000

Coaches poll to remain public

TCU and Boise State can both earn a BCS Automatic Qualification.

utesfan100 — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 01:27:40 -0000

TCU and Boise State can both earn a BCS Automatic Qualification.

If both are in the final top 4.

BCS Profiles: Texas Longhorns

utesfan100 — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 23:25:43 -0000

With the third BCS standings now out it is past time for me to profile a third team in the standings. The highest ranked team I have yet to profile is #2 Texas.

BCS Race:

Texas might be dancing with Alabama for the rest of the season for the 2 spot. Alabama and Florida would square off in the SEC championship game so all Texas is required to do is win their games.

A statistical breakdown of Texas is next:

Offense:

Texas is #31 in total offense at 417.8 yards per game, #1 in scoring offense at 41.75 points per game and #7 in Red Zone offense at 95%.

They are #26 in passign offense at 261.9 yards per game and #49 in rushing offense at 155.9 yards per game.

Former Heisman winner Colt McCoy is #7 in passing with 24.75 completions per game. In yards per game he is #23 at 247.1. In all purpose yards per game he is #24 at 264.4. In passing efficiency he is #25 at 144.6. he is tied for #35 in points responsible for at 12 per game.

Jordan Shipley has 64 of those receptions earning a tie for #3. He is #11 in receiving yards per game at 97.1. In all purpose running per game he is #34 at 134.5.

These two form a formidable threat to any defense, but cold not have the success they have had without the excellence of their supporting cast..

Defense:

Texas is #3 in total defense at 240.8 yards per game. They are #11 in scoring defense at 13.6 points per game. They are #95 in Red Zone defense, allowing opponents to score 87% of the time.

They are #1 against the run, allowing only 52.9 yards per game and #29 in passing offense at 187.9 yards allowed per game.

Earl Thomas is # 2 in passes defended per game at 1.83. He is #3 in interceptions with 0.75 per game.

Curtis Brown is tied for #32 in passes defended per game at 1.00.

Sam Acho leads the nation in fumbles recovered with 4 in 8 games. Emmanuel Acho and Lamar Houston are tied at #38 with 2 recoveries in 8 games.

Deon Beasley is tied for #35 in forced fumbles with 2 in 6 games.

This defense is a turnover machine. They may give up a few yards, but they are ready to burn your every mistake.

Other:

Hunter Lawrence is the #5 field goal kicker with 2 per game.

D.J. Monroe is #4 in Kickoff returns with 38.1 yards per kickoff return.

Jordan Shipley appears again here at #11 with 15.35 yards per punt return.

They are tied for #5 in turnover margin with +1.25 turnovers per game. They are #27 in time of possession at 31:34.

Prospectus:

Texas has faced all of their ranked opposition. The Big 12 championship game is the biggest game left, though complacency can rear its ugly head this time of year if a coach is not careful.

Even with a loss, Texas would be high on the list for an at-large invitation to the BCS.

Heisman Hopefuls

utesfan100 — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 22:58:02 -0000

I have already expressed my disdain for the Heisman award. I have also expressed that it almost seemed like a duty of this blog to provide a spot for a team neutral Heisman discussion.

So based on last week's poll Sam Bradford has been removed and Case Keenum has been added due to the commentary in last weeks post.

It was actually a tie for who I would add this week. Nebraska's Ndamukong Suh came in second.

I reserve the right to break any ties by the toss of 2 D-12 and a matrix of all possible results. After all, I have no real vote and we are discussion the premier individual award for a prototypical team sport. This must be handled seriously and professionally. That is what the matrix provides.

Your input is greatly appreciated, because I am certain you are much more of an expert than I am on this topic.

Poll

Who should win this year's Heisman Trophy?

This Week's Playoff Games

utesfan100 — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 02:33:18 -0000

This week features two high profile playoff type games. This is typical due to the rarity with which the top teams actually play. It is as if they will only play each other when they have too. Maybe this is why most leagues have an actual playoff.

For more information on a game follow the link for each team to the appropriate SB Nation blog or team page. It should be noted that some of the elimination round participants have moved on to Basketball already. So much for the Basketball only matters in March playoff mantra.

#9 LSU @ #3 Alabama

This game is an elimination round for LSU. If they lose is is unlikely they will get picked over Alabama or Florida for the SEC's second and final BCS slot. Alabama is looking to continue the march towards an epic battle of undefeated SEC championship contenders gearing up to face Texas in the National Championship Game. Though the order of these top three matters very little, Alabama should overtake Texas this week with a win.

The winner of this game has a clear path to face Florida for the SEC title. Alabama could usurp this opportunity if LSU drops a game latter down the stretch.

#16 Ohio State @ #11 Penn State

Ohio State owns a ticket to the Rose Bowl if they win the next two weeks. They will also be the underdog in both. It is hard to find a way for Penn State to get to the Rose Bowl because a win this week would give Ohio State a second conference loss and even if Ohio State upset Iowa, Iowa would have the Rose Bowl tie-breaker. It is unlikely Iowa will lose two games, though they have certainly tried numerous times this year.

Elimination rounds after the jump.

Elimination round: The following teams have earned the right to face a lower tier opponent in this round

#1 Florida vs. Vanderbilt
#2 Texas vs. UCF
#4 Iowa vs. Northwestern
#5 Cincinnati vs. Connecticut
#6 TCU @ SDSU
#7 Boise State @ LA Tech
#8 Oregon @ Stanford
#10 Georgia Tech vs. Wake Forest
#12 USC @ ASU
#13 Pittsburgh vs. Syracuse
#14 Utah vs. New Mexico
#15 Houston @ Tulsa
#17 Miami(FL) vs. Virginia
#18 Arizona vs. WSU
#19 Oklahoma State vs. Iowa State
#20 California vs. Oregon State
#21 Wisconsin @ Indiana
#22 Notre Dame vs. Navy
#23 Virginia Tech @ ECU (VT up 13-3 at the half as I write this)
#24 Oklahoma vs. Nebraska

Idle: The following teams have earned a bye in this weeks round.

#25 South Florida