SB Nation User Blog: variablesdont

6/30 gameday thread thread

variablesdont — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 00:36:11 -0000

anything going on? i notice michael taylor is still in AA. gordon beckham's got a pair of hits behind clayton richard. jason knapp's got 6 Ks in 3 innings. elijah dukes has a pair of hits. jesus montero's got a pair of HRs in AA. carlos saantana's got 2 hits. raddy liz is looking terrible. i'll have to eat crow on that at some point, it seems.

that should be 75 words. nope? well, lonnie chisenhall is all kinda studly. that should do it.

MOD national III

variablesdont — Sun, 31 May 2009 14:20:17 -0000

i've started to look into names for subsequent picks, and here's about what i'm thinking:

first, one generality: the only corner OF/IF i'll consider selecting is aaron miller, but even him, i'd only select at 81. with the massive dearth of these hitters at the major league level, plus michael burgess and chris marrero in the system, there's just too much else wrong with the team to continue stockpiling hitters with no defensive values..

specifically, i'm looking at these players for 10, 50, and 81.
jiovani mier, SS @10: he's an interesting candidate as a SS, but i've got concerns about his on base ability. he's not a great contact hitter, and i don't think his defense is good enough to overcome both of these.
will myers, C @10: he's more of a project than i'd like to see, but his upside is quite tremendous. i tend to prefer college catchers to HS ones, but myers upside could make me lapse on that.
chad jenkins, RHP @10: i like his package, and he's probably the top target, now that i think about it, but i see him as a bit of a project, and i could be talked into selecting this guy:
zach wheeler, RHP @10: if you happen to sell pants for a living, boy does this guy have a pair. he's basically all arms and legs with good armstrength and no consistantly plus secondary offerings. that said, with the nats system being what it is, wheeler is only selected if you think the team is 3+ years away from contending. i don't.
DJ lemehieu, 2B @50: i don't think he'll last to this point, but i think he's got a lot of upside as a potential plus defender at 2B, with gap to gap power, good plate discipline, and the potential to be much more.
luke bailey, C @50: i think he's the second best C prospect in the draft, and if he can be had at this point, just because he had TJ surgery, i'll definitely take it.
matt hobgood, RHP @50: he's physical and powerful, with a potential plus curve. that's basically all you can ask for out of a HS pitcher.
bryan berglund, RHP @50: another guy who fits into a pair of jeans, he's got three potential plus pitches, and good enough control to make use of it.
mychal givens, RHP @50: i know a lot of people like him as a SS, and if i were running a team, i'd probably give him 2 years to play off of the position, but i think he has a lot more upside as a pitcher who tops out in the mid to high 90s.
david renfroe, 2B @81: the comp i heard, and i happen to think it's pretty solid, was jason donald. renfroe's taller and leaner, and i slot him in at 2B, since i think it's a lot easier to promote a guy if he's not expected to be the team's leader at SS.

ben tootle, RHP @81: tootle would be another project, but he's got the velocity that, were he to make good, he'd be one of the best pitchers in baseball.

clayton richard

variablesdont — Sat, 30 May 2009 03:27:14 -0000

i promised this update in the other thread, and with richard's 7 inning, 7 K performance, i think there's enough (but never really enough) data to start to present it.

i want to start off by saying that i had the wrong information previously. in baseball america's 2009 prospect handbook, this is said about richard:

at 6'5", richard is a taller version of mark buerhle. he works quickly and throws strikes with 3 pitches, including an 88-92 MPH fastball with natural sink that induces lots of groundballs.

that's the information i was going on, which is why, when i looked at richard's pitch f/x data from his first 2 starts this season, i was absolutely floored. he was touching 96 (and it's actually better than that; in this relief appearance on may 8th, he touched 98. i know!). anyway, going from 88-92 MPH to 96, is absolutely not a typical progression for a 25 year old.

however, i took a look back at one of his starts from last season, and he was touching 94. it's a lot easier step to make going from 94 to 96, than it appeared, when i thought he went from 92 to 96 (98).

so, basically, richard's profile right now has him throwing 5 pitches, a 4 seam FB that touches 96, a 2 seam FB that he uses to pound the lower half of the strike zone and get GBs, 2 breaking balls which are entirely unremarkable, and a changeup which appears to be mediocre in regards to anything except getting GBs.

after looking a little closer, i guess that, unless one of his offspeed pitches takes a step forward, his top end is gonna be around a 3.50 ERA, with probably a lot of GBs, a few Ks, and limited HRs and BBs. i think any person who'd toss that aside and simply say 'that's not good eonugh' is probably someone who hasn't been around long enough to know his ass from a hole in the ground.

anyway, the next player i'll look into will be francisco liriano.

MOD II: nationals

variablesdont — Thu, 21 May 2009 14:38:11 -0000

so, i said that i'd reveal my alternative to stephen strasburg after his next start, and that name is kyle gibson.

i'm quite familiar with gibson for a few reasons. firstly, he was drafted by the philadelphia phillies in the 36th round of the 2007 draft. as a fan of the phillies, and as someone who ran their mock draft, and participated in prospect-centric discussions on phillies-centric message boards, i was well aware of gibson's potential and his value.

in his first year at mizzou, gibson had a 77:19 K/BB ratio in 67 innings while functioning as missouri's shutdown reliever. he moved into the rotation in 2008, and put up a 96:23 ratio in 88 IP. he had just been pretty good, with regards to ERA, straddling a 4.00 ERA each year, but growing his stature steadily.

but for this pick, it's not so much about the numbers. what i see in gibson that makes me think he's an equal value to strasburg, even though he's not an equal talent is as follows.

gibson has two plus offspeed pitches. it's not just that his slider and his changeup are both good to great in terms of deception and break, it also figures in the fact that he can throw both for strikes, seemingly at will.

gibson also has a FB that hits 95, though it's mostly thrown in the low 90s with sink. this makes at least some sense, considering he throws on a downward plane from a 6 foot, 6 inch frame. he also can throw this pitch for a strike, seemingly at will.

performance wise, and this is the reason that i did not want to release his name in the last thread, he has had some clunkers. on march 29th, following a 9 inning, 16 K game the week before, gibson threw up this clunker: 2 IP, 7 H, 7 ER. on april 24th, his line was 6.2 IP, 9 Ks, 2 BBs, 9 H, 7 ER. this was following a 9 inning complete game in which he allowed 11 H and 3 ER, while throwing 132 pitches (90 of which were strikes). in his last start before yesterday, he went 8 innings, giving up 7 H, 4 ER, and throwing 112 pitches (82 of which were strikes). and then yesterday, on 11 days rest, he threw 6 innings, allowed 3 H, 0 ER, and had 7 K, with 3 BBs.

on the season, gibson's line is this:
98.2 IP, 89 hits, 123 strikeouts, 18 walks, 3.47 ERA

what i was hoping to see in this last start was the dominance that he had earlier in the season. that might have been a little too much to hope for, considering he was coming off 11 days rest, and he hadn't really been that good for a while, but i was hoping i'd get at least a glimpse of that yesterday.

i still haven't made my decision, but when comparing strasburg with gibson, i see gibson has better offspeed stuff, has better control, better command, better stamina, and he was facing a higher level of competition. strasburg has velocity on gibson, but gibson's no slouch there. combined with my concerns about strasburg adjusting to a 5 day rotation, and my general concerns about a 21 year old starting pitcher whose value is almost solely derived from sitting 96-98 and touching 100, i think the argument has more merit than many have given it.

some references i used in writing this:
the baseball cube, which lists gibson's stats in his first two years (2007, 2008).
missouri's season stats page, which contain gibson's 2009 stats.
missouri's game log, where gibson basically pitches the first game of any three game series
kyle gibson's MLB.com draft profile

VD's 1st 'natinal' MOD

variablesdont — Fri, 15 May 2009 16:51:42 -0000

okay, so, this is unprecedented. the nationals have two of the top 10 picks in this year's draft (including the first overall), plus a new stadium from which to draw revenue, and an unchallenged talent at the top of the board, who is being described as the best pitching prospect of the decade.

firstly, our picks:
1, 10, 50, 81

i've got a history doing these mockdrafts. up until about the 3rd round of last year's mock, i've mostly selected guys that i'd designated beforehand as my targets. that meant that instead of selecting kasey kiker in the supplemental round of the 2006 iteration, i went with max sapp.

for instance, last year, drafting for the phillies, i started off the draft with 5 straight college pitchers (ross, stewart, putnam, lindblom, green), 3 of them being relievers. i'm pretty satisfied with how that looks right now, but at the time, it was pretty damn ballsy. that's kinda how i like to do it

my board right now looks like this:
#2: strasborg
#1: unnamed draft prospect who boxkutter could probably tell you, but i'd cut off his manram if he did

in the next mod, i'll expand on my disinterest in comrade strasborg, and i'll maybe open up about my massive mancrush on that other guy who i think is a better bet.

4.13.MiLB.notes

variablesdont — Mon, 13 Apr 2009 20:09:47 -0000

todd frazier started off today 3/5 with a double.

david robertson did his thing (3 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 7 K).

fernando martinez is 2/4 with a pair of XBH.

justin smoak has a pair of doubles and a walk in a texas league doubleheader.

gerardo parra's got 2 hits.

john lucroy's got a hit.

does anyone know what's going on with clayton mortenson? he's yet to make a start, and he was a guy i had an eye on as a quick impact SP.

open thread, as always.

this is a simple poll

variablesdont — Sun, 25 Jan 2009 22:31:29 -0000

this is a simple poll. there are only two options, and though it might be a false presumption, i think we're entering a year in which it's quite possibly apt.

choice A: keep the core together for one more run. there's always a chance the next year will be THE year, but 4 NFC championship game losses, and one superbowl loss kind of make the point that if it hasn't happened yet, and the 4 best players are past their prime, it just might not happen.

this choice also comes with the potential degradation of key personnel, namely, donovan and westbrook.

choice 2: blow it up. trade donovan, lee toe, and gaither for the best package available, and start over with a new core.

this choice would cost a likely run after the season, but trading donovan for potentially three first round picks would quite possibly set the team up to make a run in the very near future. (three first round picks = 1 2009 first round pick, 1 2009 3rd round pick, to be packaged with their 2nd round pick to move into the back of the 1st round, and 1 conditional 2010 pick, which could be as high as the 1st round depending on performance incentives.

Poll

so, which one

choice A - one more run with degrading assets

36 votes

choice B - blow it up and get full value

9 votes

45 votes | Poll has closed

we must have this guy

variablesdont — Sun, 11 Jan 2009 11:48:04 -0000

we must have this guy

i've been a huge hasheem thabeet fan in the past, and recently, i've jumped on the darren collison and AJ price bandwagons, but at this time, i'm calling jonny flynn as being the guy to have.

what's the argument against

variablesdont — Thu, 01 Jan 2009 03:24:57 -0000

i'm pretty sure that i heard two things during the first half of the clippers game. the first thing was that the sixers are 27th in the league in scoring. the second was that both marreese speights and louwill had scored 10 points in each of the first 3 games of the road trip, all of which were losses.

i'm on record as saying that this team will only go as far as lou, marreese, and thad will take it, so my question is this: what would this team lose by starting all three?

as far as i can tell, iggy isn't able to carry this team. andre isn't able to carry this team. sammy d, good willie, and reggie evans aren't able to carry this team. since this configuration isn't working, why not hand the reigns over to 3 guys on the rise, each of whom has shown flashes of being very proficient scorers.

reason #1 why reid must be fired, and NOW

variablesdont — Tue, 23 Dec 2008 00:33:06 -0000

his job, head coach of the 2009 philadelphia eagles would be the biggest and most desirable job opening of the decade. the only three that would come close would be when tony dungee took over the colts, when jon gruden took over the bucs, and when mike tomlin took over the steelers.

you might ask why this job would be the most desirable, and you might ask why is it vital that this switch is made this offseason, and i'd answer by listing the following:

this team is currently two games over .500 while underachieving terribly - it's not going to take much to turn it around and finish with a 12 win season.
this team has two first round draft picks - any coach who takes over in 2009 will immediately be able to imprint his face with these selections.
this team has 2 franchise quarterbacks - someone is gonna have to choose which one will be the face of the future for THIS franchise, and someone is gonna have to take the reins and decide how to deal with the other guy.
this team has two high valued assets under favorable contracts who want out. maybe a new coach could bring lito or omar back under the tent, but if not, either could bring a nice haul of draft picks without really losing any production.

with all of this, there has not been a better situation for any coach to walk into and succeed in this entire decade.

now is the time for a move to be made.