If you’re reading this you are probably aware of microstats and you’re probably somewhat familiar with Moneyball;  Michael Lewis’s tale of Billy Beane, the Oakland Athletics, and their efforts to incorporate a system of objective metrics into Major League Baseball.  Years before Beane could refine The Art of Winning An Unfair Game for the Athletics, Bill James, a non-descript fan of baseball, was hard at work creating the metrics that Beane would later use to build a winner on the cheap in Oakland.  Similarly, in our harsh world of cold ice and vulcanized rubber, a group of hockey bloggers has done work just as rigorous as that done by Bill James many free-agent signing periods ago.  What these bloggers need now is a Beane to their James and a team to be their Oakland Athletics.  We here at Copper and Blue are convinced that the Oilers would be well served to take up the mantle just as the Athletics did.  Indeed, if they reject the tidal wave of objective statistics and measures that is rushing towards the NHL the Oilers can expect many more years of embarrassing losses to marginal teams.

Though James and the hockey bloggers have labored for the love of different sports, their goal has been the same – to best quantify what it takes to win in each respective league.  James’ work took on increased importance as the economics of baseball shifted in the 1990’s.  The salary discrepancy between the haves and the have-nots increased exponentially and seemed to preclude small-market franchises from competing with their big-market opponents – that is, until Billy Beane brought the statistical rigor of Bill James to America’s National Pastime.  Almost immediately after becoming GM of the Oakland Athletics, Beane set out to eliminate insufficient and inefficient subjective forms of player evaluation.  Traditional scouts and club-house managers balked as Beane drastically moved his organization from one that favored "toolsy" prospects, as had been standard across the league for generations, to one that preferred players who simply would not make outs, regardless of build, stature or pedigree.  He did this because Bill James and his math said to.  By going for this sort of player, Beane was able to accurately evaluate talent and acquire players with the skillsets that correlated to winning.  That is, Beane was able to extract the maximum amount of value for each dollar spent.

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"They don't even know what it is to be a fan. Y'know? To truly love some silly little piece of music, or some band, so much that it hurts."

--Sapphire, Almost Famous

And hurt it has, around here. To be a fan of a band, of an athlete, of a team, is Agony and Ecstasy. In the 1980’s, Oiler fans knew the Ecstasy as well as any group of fans has ever known it. The lineup was star-studded and packed with enough talent to fill two rosters. Wins were had, and championships were earned. But the Ecstasy came and went, and as any drug-user will tell you, every high is followed by an equally extreme low. The low that is the Agony has been felt in Edmonton throughout the second half of this century’s first decade, and until recently, there was little reason to expect improvement. The peak-to-trough journey for Oiler fans has been an exhausting experience, an emotionally draining dirge for all those who’ve given their soul to the team. Why would anyone endure such hardship for a fleeting shot at success?

Could it be that fandom, the willingness to suffer the Agony while wishing for the Ecstasy, hoping with the sort of force only the naive or the most resolute zealot can muster, is a necessary element of being? Those who know what it is to be a fan know the heartache that comes with their loyalty. It is a natural consequence of their commitment, and their ability to suffer through the lean years while hoping for better times is what defines them.

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