Alright, I had a little free time this morning and, unfortunately for you guys, that means I decided to write about the A's.  And since the debate du jour of today seems to be how to predict defensive performance, here's my take.

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More and more on the internet and AN, I find the most thoughtful and enlightening baseball posts to be interesting graphics.   On AN, we have a few experts who provide and share unique and thought-provoking plots.

However, many people believe that they simply don't have the time or skills to create such great works of art as a danmerquery, elcroata, the wizards at BTB, or countless others across the internet.  I'm here to tell you that you're wrong.  If I can do it, you can do it.

This fanpost is here to give you one of the most powerful graphical tools you can use and to make it relatively easy to comprehend*: R. 

*I hope

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There's magic in baseball.  I don't mean the smell of the freshly cut grass, or the fine patterns of dirt as yet untouched, or even the arrival of summer, although I suspect each of those has a little magic too.  What I mean is that baseball has an ability to always give hope. 

We're at the end of an offseason.  The whole time was spent looking at the big picture.  Who the A's could acquire to help their chances.  How the prospects stack up and give hope to the future.  Where and when the A's can build a new stadium.  Why the A's might actually have a chance in 2010.   And why they probably won't.    

What I want to do is instead spend a little time looking at the little picture.  Each time a team steps onto a diamond, it has a chance to win.  Because baseball is a sport of nuance.  Each game is the microcosm of a season, each inning a microcosm of a game, each at bat a microcosm of an inning and each pitch a microcosm of an at bat.  There's always a game within a game within a game within a game. 

And perhaps the A's 2009 season wasn't successful.  But there sure were some microcosms worth watching.

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I bet I know what you’re thinking. I love baseball stats and this new statistical revolution in my favorite sport has really enhanced my understanding. But, darn it, sites like Fangraphs simply aren’t geeky enough for me.

I mean, who hasn’t had that thought?

Fangraphs is a fantastic site. I can look at things like player A’s wRAA and see that linear weights suggest he was worth a certain number of batting runs last season. I can see what percentage of pitches Player B swung out that were outside the strike zone. I can look at hundreds of different calculations and can analyze pretty much to my heart’s desire.

But, I’m selfish. What if I want more? I want the ability to calculate things that aren’t available at Fangraphs, using tons of data. Maybe I simply want to learn how to use pitchFX, that new tool that you see everywhere with them fancy complicated graphs? Well, this fanpost is a very basic look at a tool that’s been making it’s way from StatSpeak to the Book Blog to the Hardball Times to Beyond the Boxscore.

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This is the second part of my series. You can find the first part here.

Last week in What Went Wrong: The title of this series is What Went Wrong in 2009. Why was it that many projections saw the A’s either ahead or right behind the Angels in the division yet the A’s finished in last? As we saw, 1b was the epitome of the A’s season. We expected Adam LaRoche of 2008 at 1b and we got the Aubrey Huff of 2009. 2009 A’s 1b managed to amass –11.0 runs instead of the 16.3 we expected. A’s 1b were nearly 3 WINS worse than expected. In other words, if you expected the A’s to win 85 wins in 2009 (about what I recall expected), and you were given the data from A’s 2009 1b, the prediction would become 82 wins. And that was including Barton’s late surge.

You might think, or at least hope, that one needs look no farther than 1b to see the culprit for our lost season. But that wouldn’t be much of a series! And I’m starting to like making these tables and graphs:

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I’m a perfectionist. That’s not to say that I don’t know when to quit. What it means is that I don’t know when to quit if I’m doing something I’m passionate about. One of those passions happens to be baseball. Specifically, A’s baseball.

On this very site, I’ve written haikus. Not just any haikus, mind you, but ones where the first letter of each line form an anagram. I wrote 18 pages on a FanPost once. My point is not to brag, but rather to highlight that perhaps I get a little carried away sometimes. I'm pretty sure nobody bothered to figure out my anagram, especially the second one.  I'm just as sure no one read my whole 18 pager. 

But, you’re not here to read my story. You’re here to read about the 2009 A’s 1b. Well without further adieu (besides a short jump) my latest crazy endeavor:

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Today's rounds of the draft (4-30) held a ton of importance for our favorite team. The A's lacked a 2nd round pick this year and had no supplementals so every pick had more meaning. Who did the A's choose?  I'll focus on the two names that interest me the most.

Coming into today Baseball America had ranked the talent left to be picked.  At the top of the board lay the following 5 talents with BA's corresponding rank in the country: (Spoiler alert: take note of the first two names.)

30. Max Stassi, c, Yuba City (Calif.) HS

38. Sam  Dyson, rhp, South Carolina

41. Zack Von Rosenbuerg, rhp, Zachary (La.) HS

43.  Brody Colvin, rhp, More HS, Lafayette, La.

45. Madison Younginer, rhp, Mauldin (S.C.) HS

The A's came into the day with the number 12 pick in the 4th round.  That pick was (you guessed it) Max Stassi.  Stassi is a local high school catcher whose favorite NL team is the Giants and favorite AL team is the A's. He's gotten a full scholarship from UCLA. The question is can the A's convince him to leave it.

The only reason Stassi was available was his price tag.  He fielded calls on the first day from multiple teams (including the Rockies, Tigers, Cardinals and Rangers) asking if slot would sign him.  It wouldn't:

"We have a figure in our head what UCLA is worth," [Jim Stassi, Max's father] said. "And when those clubs called, we said we are not going to make a deal at slot to get it done.

"He would have gone in the (compensation round) if we had settled for slot."

So what is that price? Per Kevin Goldstein:

KG: I hit the phones a bit after they stopped picking, and here's the story there. He wants around $1.5, so now that we're in the fourth round, he's a signability problem. It reminds me a lot of Tim Melville last year.

Melville was drafted in the 4th by the Royals and later signed for 1.25 million dollars.  So, is Stassi worth it and are the A's going to pay up?  The last 5 4th rounders for the A's have been Anthony Capra, Travis Banwart, Chad Lee, Jimmy Shull, and Ryan Webb.  While none of the 5 are great shakes (jury's out on Capra and Banwart if we're feeling generous), all 5 signed.  In those 5 years, the A's have also signed every pick before the 4th round.   The A's don't have a record of drafting people who they don't plan on signing that early.

All well and good but does Stassi have the performance to warrant $1.5 million? According to some sources, most definitely.  His freshman year Stassi hit .580 with 9 HRs.  Sophomore year saw .461 with 5 HRs.  Junior year was .471-15.  Senior year was .593 and 9 HRs through 21 games.  Dude can hit.

Said one scout:

[Stassi is] as close to a sure thing as you will ever find in a high-school player because of his makeup, passion for baseball and ability to hit.

Stassi, the Sacramento Bee Player of the Year last season (with a nomination for the 2009 award), has drawn comparisons to Kendall with more power.  Added another scout:

Oakland would have the steal of the year should Stassi pass on his scholarship to UCLA.

Stassi was a surprise to get in the 4th round but nearly as big a surprise was Sam Dyson in the 10th. 

Dyson is one of those freaks of nature.  The kind of guy who a coach sees kicking a soccer ball around and asks him to join the football team.  Soon after he kicks a 51 yard field goal. He's the kind of kid who can consistently drive a golf ball 300+ yards.

One of Dyson's other gifts is the ability to throw a baseball.  Namely to throw a baseball really really fast.  Dyson possesses a fastball that hits 96 and a slider that hits 86.  He's as Goldstein put it "a big time arm looking for big time cash."

He's also a bionic man: he has had surgeries on both shoulders and his throwing elbow and he has a small dent on his forehead.  Where did that dent come from? Per the article above:

Dyson was just shy of his sixth birthday when the accident happened on a T-ball field in Tampa, Fla. — his mother sitting in the stands and his father coaching on the field. During batting practice that day, Dyson’s forehead ran full bore into a swinging bat, yet the boy did not so much as cry — or bleed — as he found his mother’s waiting arms.

...

The half-inch indentation proved to be a fractured skull. Three separate fractures required doctors to peel back the skin on Dyson’s forehead, insert a few titanium plates and screws and sew him up with 27 stitches.

Must be hell going to the airport.  So his fastball is straight and he's littered with injuries. So why was that Dyson was so highly regarded, the #38 talent according to BA?

Dyson's fastball can be overpowering and sometimes dominant:

“At times, he’s extremely special as you’ve seen this year,” Tanner says. “He can be as good as anybody in the country. Other times, it just doesn’t happen for him. At times, he looks like he’s having a bad night, and he convinces himself this is a bad night. When he has a good night, he’s thinking, ‘I’m good.’ ”

If Dyson can become consistent, he might have the most upside of Stassi, Green, and him.  Some of questioned if health was part of the reason for his inconsistency: he sat out his freshman season with to a torn labrum. 

I'll close with some of Melissa Lockard's thoughts:

Q:Favorite pick so far: Green, Stassi, or Dyson?
ML: I think Stassi was the biggest surprise, so I like that one for that reason. On a talent basis alone, I think the Green pick is tops, but all three are legitimate first-to-supplemental first round talents, which is exciting.
...
Besides Dyson, who projects to be the A's hardest signs?
ML: Definitely Max Stassi.

Can the A's sign all three of Stassi, Green, and Dyson?

Every guy the A's pick, they pick because they think there is a chance they can sign them. Certainly some of these are smaller chances than others, but I think because the A's do have a deep system, they can take some of these risks to see if they can add high level talent from the later rounds. Nino Leyja was an example of a mid-round HS selection last year who signed. Given what the A's were dealing with in terms of no second rounder, I think they have done pretty well.
...
If the A's can sign Green, Stassi and Dyson, it is probably a top 10 draft. There are teams with multiple first round picks who are going to come out higher than the A's almost no matter what given that they had so many more high round picks.

I'm sure we'll all read a ton about Green in the next few days.  And I'm sure someone has scooped me already. But I'd like to give my humble attempt to give you a little bit of outside information.

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We've had a number of multi-part FanPosts around AN that have been very interesting, well recommended, and well commented.  So, since we've had so many great series, I figured I'd make my own series, just so that we could look back on the other series and see how great they were in comparison. 

I'll warn you now, instead of breaking this into 9 different FanPosts (as any sane person would), I decided I would do all the batters in one crazy long FP.  If you want you can skip down to the white meat (and as a bonus, skip all or most of my terrible writing), as I've copied and pasted my predictions for all the position players and put it near the bottom.  

The subject I'll be covering is a subject that's become very near and dear to our hearts.  That subject is health.  The A's have broken their record set for most DL uses in the last two seasons.  In 2007, they used 12 different CFers!  Can you name all 12 without looking?

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Now that the July 31 deadline has passed and we still have dead weight on the team like Emil Brown, Alan Embree, Keith Foulke, Jack Hannahan and Lenny Dinardo, it's time we explore the August waiver deals that can happen.

First let's start with reviewing the rules:

1. Anybody on the 40-man roster can be placed on waivers without consent (or even knowledge) of the player.

2. Any team can claim any player placed on waivers, but preference first goes to the team with the worst record in the league the player was in.  All teams have 2 days to claim the player on waivers.  For example, if the A's were to place Embree on waivers, every team has 48 hours to claim him.  But if multiple teams claim him, the team highest up on the waiver wire would be Seattle, then Cleveland, all the way through the Angels in the AL.  If no one in the AL claims him, the same process happens in the NL (For reference, 25 teams would have to pass on Embree before the Phillies could claim him).

3.  If a player is claimed on waivers, the team who placed him on waivers has three options:

A) The team can pull him off waivers and said player stays on the team and cannot be traded for 30 days.

B) The team can work out a trade with the team highest on the waiver wire who claimed him.  If the player is traded, any player on a team's 40-man roster must pass through waivers.

C) The team can surrender the player and his remaining salary to the team that claims him for no players.  This is what happened with Esteban Loaiza.

4. If a player is not claimed, he can be traded any time after he passes through waivers again for any other player who passed through waivers or for players not on the opposing team's 40-man roster.

So now that we've waded through that set of rather complicated rules (or at least I've rambled about them and you've skimmed over them), why does it matter to us? Well the A's have three players who seem like just the type of players waivers are perfect for.  The players who we hear most about on waivers are of two types: guys who have very large salaries and guys who could have a little value but not enough to warrant a lot of interest prior to the non-waiver July 31 trade deadline.

For example, Nomar was put on waivers the other year.  Guys like Andruw Jones when he was good and even Manny a couple years ago were placed on waivers (and Andruw almost certainly will be this year and just as certainly he won't be claimed).  Again why does it matter to the A's? 

This year was the year of the blockbuster prior to July 31.  Manny, Griffey, Harden, Blanton, and CC all moved and a lot of teams were focused on those big names.  August can now be the time to make the little trades.  And Bobby Crosby, Alan Embree, and maybe Keith Foulke and Emil Brown could be those perfect little moves for some GM's. 

Plus, waivers don't prevent us from our main goal of rebuilding.  We can go for other teams prospects as long as they aren't on other teams' 40 man roster.  However, we don't have too much leverege. If a team claims one of our guys like BoCro (say, the Dodgers), we can't drive up the price by going to the competition.  We can only deal with them or hold onto our guy. But what we can do to increase our prospect haul is to take on a team's bad contracts.  For example, if the Dodgers were to claim BoCro, we could take a guy like the aforementioned Andruw, assuming he clears waivers, and demand Scott Elbert, Andrew Lambo, and Ivan DeJesus.  Or we could do something crazy and trade him to the Giants for Zito and Alderson, Bumgardner, Sosa, and Villalona.

Obviously those last deals are fantasy.  But what about some more realistic (but still unreleastic) deals like Embree for Jason Donald if the Phillies, as apparently the A's wanted to add on the Blanton deal (according to PT, I haven't seen a link to confirm that)?  Or something like Keith Foulke for Allen Craig (Nico, what do you think?)? 

At the very least, who should be put on waivers?  I would say obviously Embree, Foulke, Crosby, and Brown (Hannahan and Conrad are DFA candidates, not waiver candidates).  If we're willing to accept low-level prospects we could even put Thomas or Ellis on waivers, because they will be claimed.  If we wanted to buck convention, we could even put Street or Duke on waivers, but again we would have to accept non-40 man roster prospects and we couldn't start a bidding war, with only one team to negotiate with.  However, if we don't find a deal we can always pull them back off waivers.

As I put in a post last night, it's time to clear some dead-weight off this team and perhaps get a little value in return.  It's our last chance this season to do so, and I want to see Murton, Patterson, Petit, and Pennington get some extended PT this season.  

Oh, and one more thing that I'm tempted to put on my sigline: call up Michael Richard and Larry Cobb, Billy!

After today’s loss puts us 6 back of a team that is better than us, however slightly, our 2008 season looks like one without the chance of playoffs.  So now it’s time to think to the future and to plan our moves this year to most benefit our future success.  Trade-wise, I won’t propose any specific deals, as I know people hate trade diaries. 

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Despite the most dramatic win in a long time people are still pessimistic about three things: our fragile CF, SS, and SP.

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Disclaimer: All of this is pure, idle speculation with impossibly little chance of ever happening.  So if you're not a fan of made-up trades don't read it.  

Zonis' diary the other day got me thinking: is there a way to limit (but not eliminate) our competitions in spring training and get someone who could really help us?

Obviously, our biggest hole is offense and our biggest strength our bullpen. I wish we could have gotten in on the Adam LaRoche deal, but that is old news.  So the idea I came up was:

Adam Dunn and David Ross for
Jason Kendall, DJ, Kielty, TBuck and Street/Duke/Calero

At first I thought the deal favored us but the more I thought of it the more it made sense.  First the monetary issue: according to Cot's, Dunn makes $10.5 mil in '07; Ross $1.6 mil; Kendall $8 mil (13 and $5mil comes from the Pirates); Kielty $2.1 mil; Duke and Calero a little more than 1 mil. The rest all make minimum.  In other words, if we give the $5 mil for Kendall from PIT to CIN, then the trade is basically an even exchange of salaries.

Talent-wise we get two low average, high power, high OPS guys. However, if Beane feels he has found a market inefficiency in low K guys, he would have to break that trend.  And that's an understatement.  We gain two of the highest strikeout kings this side of Ryan Howard.  Oh wait one sec, we get one this side of RH and one on the other side (Dunn had 194[!] to Howard's 181).  Plus we limit our competition with the only real competition for one bullpen spot.    

The Reds biggest need is a closer.  Street, Duke, or Calero all could be the Reds' closer.  The Reds also get a proven NL .300 hitter at catcher, their future replacement for Hatty, and also a LF for today and one for tomorrow.  They trade one/two years of Dunn (he has a 13 mil option) and two+ of Ross for a good prospect and three years of a premium closer.  

Any thoughts?    

Before you read this (or more likely read a paragraph and then scroll to the comments, of which they'll probably be none) and ask me why I'd waste so much time, I'd like to say that I like, no I love, writing and reading about the A's. I'm sure many people on this site would agree wholeheartedly or why else would they/you be here?  That's why I spent so much time on this writing.  I did it to fill up this off-season, and get over our elimination; I did it for myself.

So what is it I decided to do? I looked at the immediate future of what our team could do in this six-month waiting period, six months of sheer boredom (I'll call this period school) until I get to see my A's again.  I hope that the team I see next year will be able to go farther into October than the A's we just saw and that's hard to do.  So, in what ways can we improve this team? How can we get those players who'll improve us?

The easiest answers to those two questions are through in-house promotions and through free agency (I'm not paying the players, so I can say this).

What spots do we have open for next year?  We have four FA's this year.  Z, Payton, Kennedy, and Thomas are the players we have to replace.  That's a plus starter, a five hitter, a solid setup guy, and a forty homer hitter we had in '06. IMO, we can replace those four roles and more if we make the right moves.  So, who's out there?

Let's start out with call-ups. What players in our system might have potential to be solid major-leaguers in the next year or two?  I think our list to choose from is this: Dan Meyer, Shakespeare tragedy, Connor Robertson, Jerome Williams, Windsor, Komine, Kohn, Casilla, Flores, Mabeus, Barton, TBuck, Melillo, Baker, Braden and John Brown.  Obviously we won't have 15 rookies on the team.  Which few are the crème de la crème?  

There are lots of pitchers, many of them bound to be journeymen on that list.  In our pen, we obviously have a solid foundation for any callups to join in the Holy Trinity, aka Kiko Streetscherer.  When it comes to bullpens, there are three things I believe.  I'm of the opinion that the best way to build a bullpen is to get a bunch of minimum salary guys and have them Duke it out for their spots.  Since we have a fantastic trio in our pen already, most of the other bullpen guys will not get major innings but rather the "Yabu" innings anyways.  Why not experiment with young pitchers: every once in a while, a Gaudin emerges.  Another belief of mine is that failed starters, or good starters who can't fit in one's rotation, can become great bullpen guys.  My third belief is that competition brings out the best in everybody.  

What's my solution?  Have Flores, Robertson, and Shakespeare tragedy as favorites for any open bullpen spot (from Kennedy or from a trade), but allow all of the aforementioned minor league pitchers to compete for a job.  As for the rotation, I state my views further down, but it's much the same: lots of competition with favorites as the overdogs (is that a word?  If not, it should be) but not with guaranteed spots.

A for the hitters, I think Barton, TBuck, and Melillo are in our future plans, and so we should let them develop until they're fully ready in AAA, and not start the arby clock too early.  Brown and Baker should try their hardest to get bench spots.  As for Melhuse, I think we should trade him for some minor league depth; not only because his stats are spiraling downward, but also because if some other team will give him more PT, we owe him enough to give him that opportunity.  

Now on to out-of-house solutions.  To say this off-season's free agent pool is stacked would be the understatement of the, um, off-season.  When I write this, the list of FA's I wouldn't be mad if we signed filled up a page in Word with a player per line.  That's quite a few players to sort through, and that's why this is quite a long diary.  

Note: I'm leaving out guys who I think have a snowball's chance in hell of not re-signing with the team they're on (Clemens, Biggio, Smoltz, Mo, Bernie) or of their option not being picked up (Dye, Mo, Posada, Schilling).  I'm also not including international players such as Matsuzaka, as I am not well enough informed.

So to start us out, who is out there?  And what do we know about the market? And how much money do we have to spend?  Well, we know, or can find out by scrolling down, that there is an abundance of players available.   The key is will this amazing amount of depth spur the market into being ridiculously overpriced or the exact opposite?

So, before we examine this year's crop, how much can we spend (not only money-wise but draft pick wise)?  This year, we will have four free agents:  Kennedy, Payton, Thomas, and Z. Z is obviously an A FA and the only question is whether we can re-sign or whether we resign him. I would strongly bet on the latter, and in that case, we will get our two compensatory picks. As for others, it's not so obvious.  Kennedy may have pulled a '05 Eyre; I would imagine he would still be a B or C, but it's possible he's an A.  Payton, like RicarJoe, I'm not sure about. He certainly did better than I expected on offense this year.  Plenty of bad OFers make the list as A FA's so maybe Jay will qualify.   As for Thomas, I'm pretty sure he will be an A FA.  I also think Frank is the most likely to re-sign with us.  I don't know how much loyalty he has to us; he has only been here one year. Will he again sign a small (5 mil + incentives a year for 2 years?) contract loaded with incentives to come back to the A's?  (I know I'm asking a lot of questions, partly because there are always plenty of unknowns in the off-season). Hurt was not just a big part of our offense this year; he was our offense.  Our priority signing should be him.  

So, if all four of our FA's leave, and I think we will, and should, offer at least arby to all 4, that could mean as many as 9 first round draft picks if they sign with other teams!  From what little I know of college and HS players, the 2007 draft is a much better year than this past one, which most experts considered weak.  They also called our draft one of the worst for the draft, partially because we had no 1st rounder (though I hope Cahill will make them eat their words on that).  I don't know the rules exactly on compensation picks if we lose an A FA at the same time as signing one, but I'm assuming we would just lose compensation picks that we gained.  If that is the case, we could sign a couple of FA's and still keep plenty of first rounders.  

No matter what class distinction these 4 FA's get at the end of the year, an interesting occurrence looks to be happening.  Z, this year, made $8.5 mil; Thomas, $3.1 mil; Kennedy, $2.6 mil; and Payton, $4 mil.  That's a total of $18.2 million free this off-season from those 4.  Plus, in 2007, the Pirates will pay $5 mil of Kendall's $13 and therefore, there will be a decrease in how much we're paying him this year to next year by about $3 mil.  Some, of course, of this money will go to in-house raises such as to Haren, Ellis, Bunnies and Harden as well as arby for Calero, Duke, and Bradley. If we don't re-sign Z, or Frank (and maybe if we re-sign him), we should still have some free money even with Wolff or Fisher upping the salary (which they could do).  Which brings us back to who is available in our price range.    

Let's start with relief pitchers.  They are the group with the least depth available and the group we're in least need of.  Therefore, I'm not going to spend much time on them aside from mentioning how I think the market will fare.  The relief pitchers also give us an idea how other groups will spark the market as the RP year of FA depth was last off-season.

In the '05-'06 off-season, the abundance of relief pitchers seemed to incite many teams into overspending for them (mainly the Cubs and we saw how that worked out for them; I'm not saying Eyre and Howry spurred Chicago's funk just that they didn't propel them anywhere except the cellar).  The relief pitcher market continued to be overvalued into the season itself.  The Reds traded Lopez and Kearns for relievers (a trade which I still think was a great one, one of the best trades since AJ, for the Nats). So who is available this offseason? The big name FA RPs this offseason include: Chadford,
B Koch (former A's closer 1), K. Foulke* (former A's closer 2), A Rhodes (former A's closer 3), O Dot (former A's closer 4), Gagne*, Everyday Eddie, Baez, King, Kline, Percival, Timlin, and Wickman.   The lone A reliever possibly leaving is Kennedy.  

Who on that list would we want to sign and who will be within our price range?  Certainly Eddie would be affordable coming off a bad year and he is a Bay Area product; he's also having surgery and will most likely not be offered arby.  Also because of the surgery, he's a 2007 Dotel-type gamble. But, he is also the best FA fit to replace Kennedy (as I think we will let him go; a 1.5 WHIP, and an ERA < 1.5 do not mesh).  Foulke or Percival might be reasonable gambles; both were dominant once and both have struggled with injuries and performance and so might come for cheap without suffering loss of draft picks.  In any case, Foulke, Percival, nor Eddie, are worth more than two year reasonably cheap deals.  

I think Gagne (if the Dodgers let him go), Baez, and Wickman (who I don't like anyway) are out of the range we should be willing to pay to make modest improvements on an already very good pen.  As for Chadford, King, and Kline, I don't see space for them in our pen.  For obvious reasons, Rhodes (nor Koch) couldn't come here.  And I would be shocked if Timlin left Boston.  

So what about the people who take us to the bullpen?  The A's have been known throughout this six-year era of success as a team that relies on pitching, and as we found out this year, and the White Sox learned the previous, good pitching can take you far.  And as everyone in baseball knows, a certain eccentric, surfing pitcher of ours, who has helped define this recent epoch, is a FA this year.  And he chose to rehire the Devil himself.  I would be very surprised if we could sign him to a contract that wouldn't become an albatross (What flavor is it?).

Luckily, there are plenty of other SPs available.  A few include Schmidt, Pettite, Mulder (do we gamble?), Maddux, Glavine*, Buerhle*, Miller, Mussina, Wood*, and Lilly. Now instead of getting sucked into the massive bidding wars that are sure to follow Z, Schmidt, and Buerhle if the Sox don't pick up his option (possible if not likely), I suggest we try to sign some of the second-tier talent (which this off-season is still some damn fine players) before the market explodes.  I say we should aggressively pursue Wood and Lilly and try to sign both for what the annual price it would take to sign Z (around 15 mil).  

My idea is that one of the things that the market undervalues is depth.  It is evidenced in some of the platoons across the league (take Broussard/Perez or the Red's catching: the latter which may break up this off-season). These platoons can put up some stats that rival superstars and because neither platoon-mate puts up the monster stats themselves that they put up together, it is possible to sign both for under the monetary value of their production.  This is why we should get as much depth as possible to try to recoup the loss of Z.  We can't afford the player who will put up those stats by himself, but we might be able to afford a multitude who could replace Z's value.  We've already got a lot of lower level depth. We have four young guns who could fight for a rotation spot (Gaudin, Windsor, Komine, possibly Williams) and hopefully two southpaws to join them soon (Braden, Meyer).  We have two reasonably cheap former starters who can fill in for injuries (Halsey, Saars).  And we have three young pitchers and one vet already in the rotation (Harden, Haren, Loaiza, Cupcakes).  What we don't have is any lefties or any #1 starters who are constantly healthy.  Lilly and Wood could help fill those holes, of course, but there are also two starters who I've been harping on about. They are both coming off mediocre seasons and we might be able to trade for them with bullpen pieces as both teams have mediocre pens.  They are Oliver Perez (watch Kendall work wonders on him again) and K machine Doug Davis.  

My dream is this: have all of them compete for rotation spots and non-holy trinity bullpen spots and watch a plus starting rotation emerge.  Plus, Wood and Harden can injure themselves and we can replace them easily.   We also would have chips to trade should we need them later in the off-season or midseason.  

While both the SP and the RP FA crops are deep, the hitters put them to shame.  And guess what our biggest weakness was this year? A coincidence?  The biggest names are Soriano, Lee, Lugo, Floyd, and Huff.  But there are also a few slightly worse but still good hitters available: our own Thomas, Nomah, Zaun, Nixon, Torii, Hillenbrand, Millar, Stairs, Dmitri, Loretta, Wilson, Edmonds*, L. Gonzalez, J. Guillen, JayPay, R. White, G. Sheffield*, Bonds, Burnitz*, Cameron*, Lofton, and Preston Wilson.  Our priority should, of course, be our best hitter this season, but there is one name I think we should seriously consider.  

I will get grilled for this, which is why I waited until all of you are asleep before mentioning this idea.  I think we should try to sign Bonds if he will cost less than $12 mil.  Now before you boo me offstage, think about it.  We are a team in a two-team market in which the other team has more fans, more money, and a better stadium.  What is a better way to convert bandwagon fans and get more people to the stadium than getting the second all time home run hitter who has controversy surrounding him and uniting two certain hall-of-famers both as close to records as a season?  Bonds would more than pay for his salary in jerseys and attendance.  Plus, he needs to come to the AL.  He shares the DH spot with Thomas but plays in left most of the time.  He plays bad defense but we have other defenders to make up for it.  He is a clubhouse cancer but if there's any clubhouse Bonds could fit into it's the A's.  Bonds is also in the only market that still applauds him and by coming to us, he comes to fans, especially the bandwagoners, who already accept him.  And most importantly, he brings his walks with him. And because of all his faults, he could come for less money than his performance merits.  

To recap, I've suggested we sign 5 FA's: Thomas, Bonds, Wood, Lilly, and Eddie.  Together, they might cost as much as $30 mil, but we free up around $15 mil this next year.  We could also try to trade away some of our bigger contracts to teams that could afford it.  How about Loaiza and bullpen pieces to the Mets for Oliver + others?  Wolff may also want to show to A's fans that he's willing to spend a bit and this hypothetical spending spree would certainly convert more bandwagon fans to join our cause.  If these moves could lead to a ring, and we were damn close this year, I think it would pay off, for me (which is of course the whole reason we should do this), and for Fish and Wolf.          

Author's note: I do not expect all, or even any, of my ideas in this diary to be realistic.  They are merely my dreams. I tried to keep them on the verge of being possible (as close to reality as my dreams can go) and I also tried to give a preview of who's available this off-season who I thought could possibly help us.  You can post your own thoughts on who you think we should sign.  And if you read this diary through, you have a much better attention span than me!

Here's my dream team:
Lineup :
Kendall
MB
Bonds
Thomas
Chavvy
Swish
Kots
Croz
Ellis

Rotation :
Harden
Wood
Haren
Davis (I don't know how he got here; let's say the Brewers DFA'd him or we traded Halsey and a PTBNL.  It is after all, a dream team)
Lilly

Bullpen :
Street
Calero
Duke
Blanton
Oliver Perez (traded Loaiza, Saarloos, Komine for Oliver and minor leaguers)
Eddie
Gaudin (at first injury, he joins rotation)

Bench :
Melillo
Brown
Kielty

In AAA ready to come up :
Halsey
Windsor
Braden
Meyer
TBuck
Barton
McBeth
Robertson

For the complete list of this year FAs (and the site I used for contract info):
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2000/04/possible-free-agents.html

Other Notes:
Teams with money freeing up and hence our competitors:
TOR
SF
OAK
The usual big spenders

Star/Once star players with off years and hence guys who we might be able to acquire for below market price:
Oliver Perez
Madson
Peralta
Gomes
Ensberg
Drew
Cantu
Kent (I hate him but he didn't have that bad a season just not that many HR's)
M. Giles
R. Sexson
A. Rod (trouble in the Bronx, could we capitalize?)
Chavvy (Oh, wait a sec)

Players to look for next year who might be flukes or the real thing:
Reed Johnson (.900+ OPS)
J. Crede
B. Hall
Thames
Adam LaRoche
F. Sanchez
DeRosa
B. Hawpe
M. Teahen

*Player or team option

P.P.S. I haven't read the recent diaries so some of these issues may be addressed.  I just felt this was slightly too long for a comment.

One of the "Moneyball" GMs was fired today, as we all know.  This firing provides the perfect time to assess our own general manager: Billy Beane.  No one would argue he's not an elite GM; he's the master of the midseason trade, he hardly ever makes a bad deal under any circumstance, and he's given a team with a miniscule payroll a chance to compete with the Evil Empires for the past half-decade.  But one of his problems was magnified in 2005.  The A's didn't make the playoffs for a number of reasons including injuries, and what not, but there was one glaring hole: a mediocre and very inconsistent offense.  In fact, Billy has not ever made an elite offense:

Year    Runs    Rank in AL
1997     764    11
1998    804    9
1999    893    4
2000    947    3
2001    884    4
2002    800    8
2003    768    9
2004    793    9
2005    772    6

The A's did have plus offenses during the A's offensive peak of '99-'01 but Beane did not acquire the players who accounted for the most offense:  Jason Giambi (drafted in '92), Miguel Tejada (signed as FA in '93), Eric Chavez (drafted in '96), Matt Stairs (traded for in '96) and even Ben Grieve (who was productive in 1999-2000, drafted in '94) were all on the A's from the era before Beane.  In fact, in 1996, the year before Beane became GM, we scored 861 runs, more than every year in the Beane era except our peak of  '99- '01.      

The way we won this past half-decade, as we probably all know, is pitching.  The Big Three, and now Harden, Haren, Blanton, Zito all could and can win without great offense.  But, how far could we go with that great offense?  We know the A's have a limited budget and that the best way to get cheap, great players through the draft like the way we got Giambi, Grieve, and Chavez.  Here is where we find Beane's fault.  Beane has never drafted an amazing offensive player with the possible exceptions of Swisher and DJ.   In the draft from '97-'02(in the first ten rounds), these are some of the players we could have drafted with our pick that we didn't (so no Tex, Utley, etc who were picked before we got our pick):
L. Berkman
M. Ensberg
A. Huff
A. Dunn
J. Lane
H. Blalock
C. Tracy
K. Mench
R. Howard
J. Morneau
D. Wright
D. Macpherson
C. Granderson
C.  Barmes
M. Ellis (who Billy traded for)
K. Youkilis (who Billy wanted)

A lot of these players our high OBP guys and prototypical "Moneyball" guys.  To Billy's credit, 16 other teams did not pick a single one of these guys as well though a lot of teams had higher draft picks and selected better players before our pick (and 14 is still about 50% of teams). Swish and DJ may also be better than a couple of these hitters, but that's arguable.

Will Billy ever draft the 40 HR hitter?  We know he can't buy one and he probably can't trade for one.  The draft is our only way of getting that elusive hitter.  So far, without remarkable improvement from Swish or DJ, he hasn't.  Without this mystery hitter, will we be able to have a great offense?  Is the inability to create an amazing offense a weakness of Beane? Will this problem of Billy's become a recurring problem?  Or can pitching alone get us our ultimate goal?  

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5007974

Fox Sports reports that Braves pitching coach signed with the Baltimore Orioles in a 3 year deal.  He did this after recently talking with the Yankees.  

Any thoughts on this new development?  If the Orioles pitching improves can they compete with the Evil Empires?  They have the offense.  Will the Braves' pitching fall back?  How import is Mazzone (or any pitching coach in general)?  Will he make as much difference as Rick Peterson did (i.e. didn't really affect our pitching and didn't drastically change the Mets')?  Who will improve most in Baltimore?

  Over the summer, I had a conversation with a non-baseball fan about why being an A's fan was better than being a Yankee fan.  She asked me to write it down as a newspaper article and I did.  I've written a few and this is the first part (the other part about pitching) of my first since school started again.  I would love some comments.  Thanks.
    The A's are in the middle of a playoff race.  They are the best team (tied in record with the Cleveland Indians) in the AL to not make the playoffs if they started today.  After the offseason moves of Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder, and after a especially tough month of May, it was hard to imagine they would be here.  This year for the Oakland A's was supposed to be a rebuilding year.  Even GM extraordinaire Billy Beane made several comments toward the future before the season (Beane also said don't count the A's out in '05).  A rebuilding team turns its eye to the future.  The A's have their eye on this year and the '05 WS, but this year is a rebuilding year, albeit a really good one.  With the A's losing players faster than they did in that fateful month of May, here is a look at the A's immediate future in this next offseason.

Offense:
    The A's have scored the 4th most runs in the AL, behind the monster mashers of the Red Sox, Rangers, and Yankees.  But, the A's problem on offense is not in scoring runs but in scoring them consistently.  For example, in the A's last 4 games, they have scored a total of 15 runs.  That is an average of 3.75 runs a game (the A's season average per game is 4.8).  But, the A's scored 12 of those runs in one game, and lost 3 of the games.  If the A's scored 3.75 runs, or even just 3 in each game, they would have won one more (The A's can tell you how important just one game is).  To be more consistent, the A's need less streaky hitters and more solid hitters will take a lot of pressure off the team (A lot of the A's struggles are mental; Eric Chavez is accused of being a great second hitter on a team but mediocre top hitter, and the lineup has struggled without Bobby Crosby even though the SS has struggled).  
The A's fortunes seem to go with this streaky group.  They won the most games in MLB in June when the offense scored the most runs of any offense, but struggled in April despite great pitching.  Offense, therefore, needs to be addressed first in the offseason.  The A's have a few options to improve their offense.  Here are some players who could help Oakland:

Adam Dunn:  The A's were rumored to try to trade for this power hitting slugger of the Cincinatti Reds, but it never happened.  It is believed he was not traded because of resistance on part of Cincinatti to give up the OF.  But, as of this offseason, Adam Dunn will be much more expensive money-wise than he was in the '05 season, because he is getting arbitration.  The Reds may finally decide they have 3 good OFers with Wily Mo Pena, Ken Griffey Jr., and Austin Kearns, and may want to shed a little salary to help them contend in the future and may want some young players.  The four young players believed to be part of the deal (Joe Blanton, Kurt Suzuki, Juan Cruz, and Jairo Garcia) have performed better since when the deal was proposed.  A similar, or even the same, deal as was offered before may be able to pry Dunn away from the Reds.  Dunn also fits well in Oakland's OBP offense and gives Oakland another power bat they lack.  He would be able to take pressure off the offense and may be able to make it less streaky.  
    However, the price for Dunn may be too much for Oakland, both monetarily and player wise.  Losing Blanton would make the starting rotation lose their most consistent pitcher since May.  That fact might make the Reds go for the deal but there is no guarantee they would bite.  Losing Cruz, Garcia, and Suzuki is losing a whole lot of potential.  Blanton (and Dunn of course) would make or break this deal. Monetarily the A's may have a little wiggle room because they lose two big contracts in Octavio Dotel and Erubiel Durazo.  Dunn would most like cost all that money.  The loss of that money may mean the A's might not be able to resign some of their young players including Barry Zito.  Dunn may also struggle due to the NL to AL switch.  He also strikes out often and is not the best defender.  

Brian Giles:  Brian Giles becomes a free agent at the end of 2005 and may want to sign with the A's to join a contender and rejoin former best friend Jason Kendall.  He would also fit well with the A's because he hits RHs well (another problem on the A's offense) like Dunn, has a high OBP, and reasonable power.  He is known as a "gamer" and would fit nicely in the top 3 of the lineup with former teammates Mark Kotsay and Kendall.  Those three, all with high OBPs, would set the table for Chavez.  Chavez may have a monster year with the three ahead of him and not having to be the #3 hitter.  This lineup would move Crosby down to 5 and Dan Johnson to 6.  
    The move would cost the A's a lot of money and would almost certainly mean they could not trade for Adam Dunn without a major payroll increase.  Giles is also a lifetime NLer and may not make the transition to the AL well.  The signing would cost the A's their first round draft pick, as well.  Also, Giles may want to sign with his brother in Atlanta or resign in San Diego.  He is getting older at 32 and may no longer be the premier hitter he once was.

Erubiel Durazo:  Durazo is not as big a name as Giles or Dunn, but he is an OBP player with some power.  The fact that he was injured early in the year after struggling may prove to be a blessing and a curse.  So far, the A's have seen the curse.  He is out for the year and is being paid $6 mil from the A's to sit.  The blessing may be in the fact that he may sign with the A's for a small amount and may provide a small boost in offense as he was the A's best hitter in '04.  Durazo may not come back by opening day, but could provide the midseason boost the A's need if Beane cannot pull off a trade for offense in a seller's market.  
    Health would be a key issue for Durazo as he would have missed a full year.  Whether he will be the same player at 30 after the surgery and a year off remains to be seen.  Signing Ruby could be a low risk, high reward situation for the A's.

Daric Barton:  Calling someone up from the minors could help the A's but it could also hurt the player's development.  The player could also prove to be a difference maker and help on offense.  He could also get the experience to participate with some experience on a strong '07 team.  Other options include Andre Ethier, Kevin Melillo, and Matt Watson.

Conor Jackson/Carlos Quentin/Trade:  A prospect from another team that could make an easy entrance to the majors would help now and the future.  The trouble will be convinxing another team to do it.  The Diamandbacks look the most likely with no space for Jackson or Quentin and would like to take the easy NL West.  Their holes are at 2b, CF, and the bullpen.  A Payton, Garcia, and Ellis for Jackson and Quentin trade?  There are too many options to list out but the A's have many pieces.  If it is still a sellers market, anything could happen.