SB Nation User Blog: vignette17

What Went Wrong in 2009: 2b

vignette17 — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 07:12:34 -0000

This is the second part of my series. You can find the first part here.

Last week in What Went Wrong: The title of this series is What Went Wrong in 2009. Why was it that many projections saw the A’s either ahead or right behind the Angels in the division yet the A’s finished in last? As we saw, 1b was the epitome of the A’s season. We expected Adam LaRoche of 2008 at 1b and we got the Aubrey Huff of 2009. 2009 A’s 1b managed to amass –11.0 runs instead of the 16.3 we expected. A’s 1b were nearly 3 WINS worse than expected. In other words, if you expected the A’s to win 85 wins in 2009 (about what I recall expected), and you were given the data from A’s 2009 1b, the prediction would become 82 wins. And that was including Barton’s late surge.

You might think, or at least hope, that one needs look no farther than 1b to see the culprit for our lost season. But that wouldn’t be much of a series! And I’m starting to like making these tables and graphs:

Second base has been a good position for the A’s for the last few years. In the years since 2005, Mark Ellis put up 4.4 wins, 1.6 wins, 3.9 wins, and 3.1 wins. That’s an average of 3.25 wins. It seemed pretty likely that the A’s could get around 3 wins again from the only healthy player who had played with the A’s on their last playoff team (and he had played on the last 3 playoff teams!)

But Ellie did have one weakness. That weakness had possibly cost the A’s a World Series birth. Ellis was, and could be predicted to be, fragile. Ellis had played in 122, 124, 150, and 117 games in the last four years. Ellis should not be confused with Chris Snelling anytime soon but he ain’t Miguel Tejada either. Ellis was averaging around 128 (121 without the 150 outlier) games in years where Bobby Crosby didn’t run into him. But not to worry the A’s now had a backup who had been a starter his whole career! The aforementioned BoCro!

Now when I made my FP predicting playing time, OCab hadn’t signed and Crosby hadn’t been relegated to backup duty but here was my prediction:

Prediction:

Ellis 530

Pennington 90

Hannahan 25

Petit 25

Patterson 20

Since Hannahan would no longer be the primary backup with Crosby and Hannahan on the bench, give Hannahan’s PAs to Crosby.

Again now we can look at better predictors than me:

Projection System	Ellis	Pennington	Crosby	Petit	Patterson
Bill James	.324	.302	.303	None	.324
CHONE	.326	.295	.296	.280	.312
Marcel	.316	.328	.291	.342	.305
Oliver	.324	.300	.304	.291	.319
ZiPS	.321	.283	.289	.285	.290
Average	.322	.302	.297	.300	.310
Average-2	.323	.299	.296	.285	.312

A couple of comments on the table:

The data are all wOBAs. Remember: wOBA is on the same scale as OBP: .400 is really, really good. .300 is really, really bad. That three of the five players have wOBAs have predictions within 2 points of .300 should be a scary thought.

League wOBA was .328 in 2008. Ellis was basically the only second baseman with a semi-respectable wOBA projection for 2009. And even his is on the low end of respectability.

Average-2 is the Average of the three middle wOBA scores. Basically it eliminates the highest and lowest projections. Average-2 should be the preferred projection system for the three guys with very limited major league time. Marcel regresses a TON to league average and/or career stats. Simply look at Petit and Pennington’s projected wOBAs compared to the other system’s projections.

As interesting as it would be to see Patterson get a full season of PT, the projections have pretty much given up hope. A .312 wOBA won’t cut it at 2b, much less LF where Patterson’s defense best plays.

Player	PA	wOBA	wRAA
Mark Ellis	530	.322	-0.47
Cliff Pennington	90	.299	-2.27
Bobby Crosby	25	.297	-0.67
Gregorio Petit	25	.285	-0.93
Eric Patterson	20	.312	-0.28
Total	690	.320	-4.62

The wRAA values are calculated from a league wOBA of .328 (the average wOBA in 2008). The wOBA in the last row is reverse engineered from total wRAA.

We may have been excited to see a better offense in 2009. One thing was clear from the projections: that better offense was not going to come from 2b. Maybe Ellis could pull his 2005 stats from nowhere. No projection system was seeing it. And frankly none but the most optimistic of fans were either.

We’ve now calculated what offense we expected from our 2b. That offensive line was most similar to the Raiders’: it sucked. Just kidding (sorry 67M). The line was most similar to the 2008 line of….Mark Ellis. Ellie had put up –4.7 offensive runs in 2008.

But Ellie had been a very valuable commodity in 2008. How had he done that? Well he had done it on the other side of the diamond: with his glove. Ellie had put up an absolutely remarkable 17.4 UZR. He played 110 DG* making his UZR/150 a whopping 23.7. That 17.4 is in the range of guys like Andruw Jones and Adam Everett. Basically, Ellie was playing defense at a rate only 2-3 players in the majors can do. And that’s not just at 2b, but all defensive positions.

I explained the DG stat last time but in case you missed it: DG stands for Defensive Games. It’s the funky statistic Fangraphs uses to calculate UZR/150. It’s supposed to measure how many "games" a defender saw in a season. It is NOT Innings/9.

Now the question was could Ellis keep up his ridiculous pace of 2008 in 2009? In 2007, Ellis put up 10.1 UZR in 163 defensive games. 2006 saw 6.3 in 116. 2005 was almost the same: 6.3 in 115. These four complete seasons give us about the same amount of information as one and a third offensive seasons. In total Ellis had put up 40.1 UZR in 504 DG from 2005-2008. That’s a UZR/150 of 11.9.

Here’s where it gets tricky. We’ve predicted 690 PAs for 2009 A’s 2b. For simplicity, let’s assume that between those 2b, they’ll see 162 DG. In theory, this would be true. In reality….well we’ll get to that later. So, to estimate the DG each 2b sees we’ll just use the formula PA/690*162.

Ellis’ 530 PAs gives him 124 DG. Pennington gets 21. Crosby 6. Petit 6. Patterson 5. Ellis’ 11.9 UZR/150 gives him 9.84 UZR. Now here’s where it gets extra tricky. Of the four remaining 2b, three had such small samples in the majors that their UZR data are meaningless and one had only played at SS in the majors. Given the uncertainty in defensive data, and the small amount of DG for all of the 2b but Crosby, even Pennington (even if Pennington was a +10 defender, he would only put up 1.4 UZR), I’ll assume that collectively they’ll put up .16 UZR. Since Pennington is a SS and he has the most DG, a slight positive would probably be expected.

Together that gives us this line:

Player	wRAA	UZR	Replacement	Positional	Total Runs
A’s 2009 2b	-4.62	10.0	23	2.5	30.9

Well just as we could have guessed from Ellie’s lines by themselves: we were expecting around 3.1 wins from the 2b slot in 2009. So, what happened? Look no further:

Player	PA	wRAA	wOBA	DG	UZR	UZR/150	Positional	Replacement	Total Runs
Mark Ellis	410	-6.40	0.310	148	1.8	1.6	1.48	13.67	10.55
Adam Kennedy	222	6.10	0.362	63	-4.6	-11.2	0.80	7.40	9.70
Gregorio Petit	22	-2.00	0.219	9	-1.9	-32.7	0.08	0.73	-3.09
Eric Patterson	19	-0.40	0.302	7	-1.7	-41.2	0.07	0.63	-1.40
Bobby Crosby	17	0.30	0.348	2	0.3	22.9	0.06	0.57	1.23
Jack Hannahan	2	0.20	0.446	0	0	0	0.01	0.07	0.27
Total	692	-2.2	0.325	229	-6.1	-4.0	2.5	23.07	17.27

Okay, so what does all that data mean? Well, let’s start with the biggest piece. Ellis got 410 PAs. If you’re too lazy to scroll up I predicted he would get 530 PAs. So, I was off by 120. Oh well, you win some; you lose some. With the PAs he did get, he put up a .310 wOBA. The average prediction was .322. The difference between the .310 wOBA and a .322 in 410 PAs is about 4 runs.

While Ellis lost about 5 runs from his prediction with his bat, the biggest problem was with his glove. Ellis put up a 1.8 UZR in 148 DG. It’s remarkable that Ellis could lose 10 runs, a full win, off his prediction and still put up a positive UZR. But he did.

Now going into the year, we knew Ellis was semi-fragile. I predicted that the replacement Ellis would need at some point would come in house. I predicted it would arrive in the form of Cliff Pennington. But the A’s were trying to contend, and looking at Pennington’s predicted .299 wOBA, it’s understandable why the A’s would look outside the organization.

Soon after the calendar turned to May, Ellis suffered a calf strain. He was out 4-6 weeks. Beane looked outside to Tampa Bay. He acquired Adam Kennedy. Kennedy proceeded to hit remarkably upon arriving in Oakland. Kennedy hit 448/.515/.655 in Week 7 and started gaining some attention for his remarkable line.

Kennedy was very good with the bat the whole time he played 2b. He of course did not keep up his near .450 average or 1.165 OPS, but he still finished with a well above league average .362 wOBA buoyed by his early season run. That was good for his 6.10 wRAA. His glove really hurt his play. Kennedy had a reputation for being a solid glove and his 21.8 UZR/150 in 2008 backed it up. Of course, his 2006 and 2007 UZRs weren’t nearly as good. But his 2003-2005 were very, very good*.

*Ah, defensive stats, you do love to torture us, don’t you?

In 2009, the UZR again confused us. He put up –4.6 UZR good for a –11.2 UZR. That’s what we’d expect out of Eric Patterson instead of Kennedy. But counting replacement, Kennedy still was good for 9.70 runs, almost a full win. Ellis was only worth 10.6 runs. All things counted, Kennedy has to be the second biggest, or at least, second best surprise for the 2009 A’s.

Remember that expression ‘you win some, you lose some’? Well my wins were the predictions of Patterson, Petit and Crosby. Crosby got 17 PAs. I predicted 25. Petit got 22 PAs. I predicted 25. Patterson got 19. I predicted 20. Combined they amassed 2.92 runs worth of value. I predicted 0.45.

In total the 2009 A’s 2b put up 17.3 runs of value. That was 12.7 runs less than our prediction. If we predicted 85 wins in 2009, the 1b data made it become 82. Given our second baseman data, we would have predicted 81 wins. I’ve only covered 2 positions, but we’re already predicting a .500 team. And I just analyzed a position where the A’s got a very nice surprise in the form of Adam Kennedy.

Looking Forward:

Going into 2010, the A’s have $5.5M committed to Ellis. Kennedy is a FA. Patterson, Petit, and Pennington are all under club control, although Patterson is out of options (not positive on that).

In my opinion, Ellis is a good bet for 2010. His UZR will probably revert back to a +7.5-+10 range. His bat will remain slightly below league average. He looks like a 2.5-3 win player. But because of Ellis’ fragility, it might make sense to invest in a backup 2b who’ll be able to provide what Kennedy provided in 2009. Frankly, I don’t think Kennedy can be that player again.

I see two options since I don’t think any player who we can expect to put up 1.0 win value in 200 PA will accept a bench job:

1. Sign a player who can spend most of their time at a different position and switch to 2b when Ellis is injured. In a perfect world, that could be Mark DeRosa. Another option might be a guy like Tejada or if you think way out of the box Adrian Beltre or Eric Hinske.

2. Go with the in-house candidate. Pennington would be OK (but in my perfect world, he’s part of the trade for Drew/Escobar/Hardy), but the true gem could be Cardenas midseason if and only if he’s ready and Ellis is injured.

Next up: 3b

What Went Wrong in 2009: First Base

vignette17 — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 07:40:19 -0000

I’m a perfectionist. That’s not to say that I don’t know when to quit. What it means is that I don’t know when to quit if I’m doing something I’m passionate about. One of those passions happens to be baseball. Specifically, A’s baseball.

On this very site, I’ve written haikus. Not just any haikus, mind you, but ones where the first letter of each line form an anagram. I wrote 18 pages on a FanPost once. My point is not to brag, but rather to highlight that perhaps I get a little carried away sometimes. I'm pretty sure nobody bothered to figure out my anagram, especially the second one. I'm just as sure no one read my whole 18 pager.

But, you’re not here to read my story. You’re here to read about the 2009 A’s 1b. Well without further adieu (besides a short jump) my latest crazy endeavor:

Going into the year, many were optimistic. At the very least, the A’s had acquired big bats to fit into the lineup. At last, we would not have to endure slow, boring games where all too often the A’s ended on the wrong side of the scorecard.

Those big bats included Jason Giambi, and to a lesser extent, Nomar Garciaparra. Both were likely to see some time at 1b. Also bound to see some time at first was former top prospect and 2008 A’s first baseman Daric Barton. Those three could easily be foreseen to play 1b in 2009. What else could we expect from our 1b?

Well, my aforementioned 18-page, ill-advised FanPost was a prediction of playing time. And since there’s no easy way to predict PT (especially with a rebuilding, brittle team), I’ll assume that one obsessed fan is as good as any prediction system at hypothesizing it.

My prediction was:

Giambi 370

Barton 260

Hannahan 35

Baisley 10

Now, when I made that FP, Nomar was yet to sign. So, let’s give Baisley and Hannahan’s PAs to Nomar (not perfectly accurate, but it’s close enough).

What were we expecting those three to do with their PAs? Luckily, we can use better predictors than my musings. Those would come in the projections provided by Bill James, CHONE, Marcel, Oliver, and ZiPS. Here are their predicted wOBAs*:

*Poz-style pause/footnote: This fanpost uses wOBA a lot. I use it because Fangraphs loves it and I’m using FG as a main source. It also readily translates to runs. If you’re not a big believer in the stat, you probably won’t be a big believer in my conclusions.

Player	Bill James	CHONE	Marcel	Oliver	ZiPS	Average	Average2
Jason Giambi	.364	.367	.359	.387	.353	.366	.363
Daric Barton	.332	.336	.333	.330	.319	.330	.332
Nomar Garciaparra	.346	.330	.323	.335	.334	.334	.333

The first average column calculates the average of all five projections. The second average calculates the average after eliminating the highest and the lowest wOBA for each player. As you can see, even though Oliver’s Giambi projection looks way out there compared to the others, it doesn’t affect the average too much. Now these projections are taken straight from Fangraphs. It’s possible there are some slight errors in the calculations. For one, I’m not sure which of the projections are park adjusted. For another, some of the projections projected certain stats Fangraphs incorporates into wOBA (SBs?). Now combining my PA predictions with the projected wOBAs, we can calculate what we were expecting in the unit of runs. The formula is (wOBA-lgWOBA)/(wOBA scale)*PA. For my purposes I’ll assume lgwOBA=.335 and wOBA scale is 1.15.

Player	PAs	wOBA	Runs	wOBA2	Runs
Jason Giambi	370	.366	9.97	.363	9.01
Daric Barton	260	.330	-1.13	.332	-0.68
Nomar Garciaparra	45	.334	-0.04	.333	-0.08
Total	675	.350	8.8	.349	8.25

The wOBAs in the Total row are reverse-engineered and hence subject to rounding error. The wOBA column is based on Average in the first table. WOBA2 is based on Average2. If one wanted to mix and match the averages it may change the numbers but not by too much. The point is that we expected A’s first basemen to produce around a .350 wOBA for 8-9 runs above average (wRAA). We expected somewhere between Jorge Cantu’s and Adam LaRoche’s 2008s on offense. At the very least, we expected a major improvement on Daric Barton’s 2008 ML worst .302 wOBA and -11.4 wRAA. But our projected 2 win gain on offense did not come without sacrifice. That sacrifice was on defense. Jason G’s D:

Year	Innings	UZR/150
2005	560	-14.3
2006	480	-20.2
2007	121	16.0
2008	898	-8.3
Total	2059	-10.9*

*Despite playing 2059 innings (a little less than 229 sets of 9 innings), Giambi played 229 defensive games. This isn’t very surprising. However, when attempting to calculate UZR/150, one has to use DG, not Innings/9. Anyways, Giambi accumulated a -16.6 UZR over those DG.

I used four years of defensive data because three years of defensive data tells about as much as one year of offensive data. Since Giambi’s 2007 saw him play only 121 innings at 1b, I figured the extra 560 innings from 2005 were more valuable to include in the data. Sure Giambi’s range probably had decreased now that he was 38 rather than 35. But it also gives us more data so we don’t normalize as much.

Let’s take the axiom that it takes 3 years for UZR to stabilize (at least to the point of wOBA). That’s 450 defensive games. Therefore we’ll guess that Giambi is probably around a –5.55* fielder. That’s probably generous, but it shouldn’t be off by too much.

229/450*(-10.9)

Another problem with the defensive data we had pre-2009 was that Barton had only been in the majors for a bit more than one year. Barton had played 1279.1 innings at 1b, good for 123 DG*. In that time, he had 6.2 UZR. That totaled a 7.56 UZR/150.

1279/9=142

As we did with Giambi, if we assume that it takes 450 defensive games for UZR/150 to stabilize, we normalize Barton’s data to 2.26 UZR/150.

Nomar had played 1b only in the last three years. He had totaled 194 DG, 1626.2 Innings, and –6.7 UZR. The data were good for a –5.18 UZR/150. Normalized, we could expect –2.23 UZR/150.

Player	PAs	exDGs	exUZR/150	exUZR
Jason Giambi	370	74	-5.5	-2.71
Daric Barton	260	52	2.26	0.78
Nomar Garciaparra	45	9	-2.23	-0.13
Total	675	135	-2.02	-2.24

We’ve now calculated what we expected entering 2009 from our collective 1bmen: a .350 wOBA and a –2.24 UZR. This allows us to create how many wins we expected from 1b:

wRAA	UZR runs	Replacement	Positional	Total Runs
8.53	-2.24	22.5	-12.5	16.3

8.53 is the average of 8.8 and 8.25. 22.5 came from 20/600*675. Positional is –12.5 runs per 162 games. I’m not quite sure how FG calculates it based on PT, so I’ll assume –12.5 is a good estimate.

Overall, what did we expect (or should we have expected)? We expected our 1b to be worth 1.6 WAR. Basically we expected 2008 Adam LaRoche for 162 games. LaRoche had 14.3 wRAA and a -5.9 UZR in ‘08. He was a better hitter than what we expected but a worse fielder.

And frankly that was a sight for sore eyes.

As you can see, the predicted 2009 1bmen were projected to be nearly 15 runs better than what Barton accomplished the previous year.

So the obvious question: what actually happened? Here are the data:

Player	PA	wRAA	wOBA	DG	UZR	UZR/150	Replace	Post’l	Runs	Salary
Jason Giambi	230	-3	0.313	70	-6.1	-13.7	7.67	-3.93	-5.36	$5.25M
Daric Barton	190	2.9	0.347	68	1.7	3.8	6.33	-3.24	7.69	$0.41M
Bobby Crosby	156	-8.7	0.262	35	2.4	11.5	5.20	-2.66	-3.76	$5.25M
Tommy Everidge	85	-5	0.258	26	-1.4	-8.1	2.83	-1.45	-5.02	$.4M
Nomar Garciaparra	54	-2.2	0.279	14	-2.4	-26.7	1.80	-0.92	-3.72	$1M
Landon Powell	17	-1.4	0.23	4	0.3	12	0.57	-0.29	-0.82	$0.4M
Total	732	-17.4	.308	217	-5.5	-3.8	24.40	-12.5	-11.0	$12.71M

There may be rounding errors in there. As well, I’m pretty sure wRAA is not park adjusted. WOBA is based on the previously mentioned .335, 1.15 numbers. Positional adjustment may not be precisely –12.5 and individul positional adjustment is simply –12.5*PA/732. Replacement is based on 20 per 600 PAs. The salary is counting all of Powell’s, Nomar’s, and Crosby’s salaries even though they did not spend all their time at 1b. You want me to prorate it based on PAs or DG or innings? I told you I was obsessive, not that I was crazy.

Point is, the data have large margins of errors based any number of reasons. However I’ve kept the errors at as constant a rate as possible. If my data differs from another place, it is based on these errors. However all my numbers use those same formulas. In other words, the data may be incorrect but throughout the fanpost they are consistent.

So what do the data mean? 2009 A’s first basemen put up 732 PAs. They put up –17.4 batting runs, based on a .308 wOBA. They put up a –5.5 UZR. In fact, the only positive they put up was Replacement. Basically what we were expecting was a little less than this:

This is what we got:

We were expecting a win and a half upgrade on 2008 Daric Barton. We got almost a win and a half downgrade. A’s 1b put up a line similar to Aubrey Huff’s 2009, which doesn’t sound nearly as bad as it is. Huff put up –15.9 batting runs this year, to accompany his sparkling –3.1 UZR.

I predicted Giambi would get 370 PAs. He got 230. I predicted Barton would get 260 PAs. He got 190. I predicted 45 would go to Nomar. He got 54. I predicted no one else would get PAs. Everidge, Powell, and Crosby got 258 combined. Basically I did nearly as terrible as A’s 1bmen did in 2009.

I guess I can take solace in the fact that the projection systems were probably worse than me. Giambi was predicted to have a .365 wOBA. He put up .313. Barton’s was supposed to be .331. It was .347. Nomar’s was supposed to be .333. It ended at .279. The three guys I didn’t foresee totaled 258 PAs, and –9.6 runs.

Without Barton, A’s 1b managed to put up –18.7 runs worth of value. That’s equivalent to about Yuniesky Betancourt. Just kidding. He’s at –22. For those who like Tommy Everidge, Everidge managed to suck as bad as Giambi in nearly a third of the PAs. Nomar managed to suck almost as bad as Crosby when he played 1b. Almost.

If you want to look at where 2009 went wrong, 1b is as good a place to start as any. It was definitely one of the top reasons team projections were so far off on our beloved A’s. However I would like to not depress you too much. Of the $12.7 million the A’s spent on 1b in 2009, they have $410K on the books in 2010. If you were to prorate Barton’s performance over the 732 PAs and 217:

Next up: 2b

Poll

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118 votes | Poll has closed

The New Oakland A's: Max Stassi and Sam Dyson

vignette17 — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 21:24:06 -0000

Today's rounds of the draft (4-30) held a ton of importance for our favorite team. The A's lacked a 2nd round pick this year and had no supplementals so every pick had more meaning. Who did the A's choose? I'll focus on the two names that interest me the most.

Coming into today Baseball America had ranked the talent left to be picked. At the top of the board lay the following 5 talents with BA's corresponding rank in the country: (Spoiler alert: take note of the first two names.)

30. Max Stassi, c, Yuba City (Calif.) HS

38. Sam Dyson, rhp, South Carolina

41. Zack Von Rosenbuerg, rhp, Zachary (La.) HS

43. Brody Colvin, rhp, More HS, Lafayette, La.

45. Madison Younginer, rhp, Mauldin (S.C.) HS

The A's came into the day with the number 12 pick in the 4th round. That pick was (you guessed it) Max Stassi. Stassi is a local high school catcher whose favorite NL team is the Giants and favorite AL team is the A's. He's gotten a full scholarship from UCLA. The question is can the A's convince him to leave it.

The only reason Stassi was available was his price tag. He fielded calls on the first day from multiple teams (including the Rockies, Tigers, Cardinals and Rangers) asking if slot would sign him. It wouldn't:

"We have a figure in our head what UCLA is worth," [Jim Stassi, Max's father] said. "And when those clubs called, we said we are not going to make a deal at slot to get it done.

"He would have gone in the (compensation round) if we had settled for slot."

So what is that price? Per Kevin Goldstein:

KG: I hit the phones a bit after they stopped picking, and here's the story there. He wants around $1.5, so now that we're in the fourth round, he's a signability problem. It reminds me a lot of Tim Melville last year.

Melville was drafted in the 4th by the Royals and later signed for 1.25 million dollars. So, is Stassi worth it and are the A's going to pay up? The last 5 4th rounders for the A's have been Anthony Capra, Travis Banwart, Chad Lee, Jimmy Shull, and Ryan Webb. While none of the 5 are great shakes (jury's out on Capra and Banwart if we're feeling generous), all 5 signed. In those 5 years, the A's have also signed every pick before the 4th round. The A's don't have a record of drafting people who they don't plan on signing that early.

All well and good but does Stassi have the performance to warrant $1.5 million? According to some sources, most definitely. His freshman year Stassi hit .580 with 9 HRs. Sophomore year saw .461 with 5 HRs. Junior year was .471-15. Senior year was .593 and 9 HRs through 21 games. Dude can hit.

Said one scout:

[Stassi is] as close to a sure thing as you will ever find in a high-school player because of his makeup, passion for baseball and ability to hit.

Stassi, the Sacramento Bee Player of the Year last season (with a nomination for the 2009 award), has drawn comparisons to Kendall with more power. Added another scout:

Oakland would have the steal of the year should Stassi pass on his scholarship to UCLA.

Stassi was a surprise to get in the 4th round but nearly as big a surprise was Sam Dyson in the 10th.

Dyson is one of those freaks of nature. The kind of guy who a coach sees kicking a soccer ball around and asks him to join the football team. Soon after he kicks a 51 yard field goal. He's the kind of kid who can consistently drive a golf ball 300+ yards.

One of Dyson's other gifts is the ability to throw a baseball. Namely to throw a baseball really really fast. Dyson possesses a fastball that hits 96 and a slider that hits 86. He's as Goldstein put it "a big time arm looking for big time cash."

He's also a bionic man: he has had surgeries on both shoulders and his throwing elbow and he has a small dent on his forehead. Where did that dent come from? Per the article above:

Dyson was just shy of his sixth birthday when the accident happened on a T-ball field in Tampa, Fla. — his mother sitting in the stands and his father coaching on the field. During batting practice that day, Dyson’s forehead ran full bore into a swinging bat, yet the boy did not so much as cry — or bleed — as he found his mother’s waiting arms.

...

The half-inch indentation proved to be a fractured skull. Three separate fractures required doctors to peel back the skin on Dyson’s forehead, insert a few titanium plates and screws and sew him up with 27 stitches.

Must be hell going to the airport. So his fastball is straight and he's littered with injuries. So why was that Dyson was so highly regarded, the #38 talent according to BA?

Dyson's fastball can be overpowering and sometimes dominant:

“At times, he’s extremely special as you’ve seen this year,” Tanner says. “He can be as good as anybody in the country. Other times, it just doesn’t happen for him. At times, he looks like he’s having a bad night, and he convinces himself this is a bad night. When he has a good night, he’s thinking, ‘I’m good.’ ”

If Dyson can become consistent, he might have the most upside of Stassi, Green, and him. Some of questioned if health was part of the reason for his inconsistency: he sat out his freshman season with to a torn labrum.

I'll close with some of M e lissa Lockard's thoughts:

Q:Favorite pick so far: Green, Stassi, or Dyson?
ML: I think Stassi was the biggest surprise, so I like that one for that reason. On a talent basis alone, I think the Green pick is tops, but all three are legitimate first-to-supplemental first round talents, which is exciting.
...
Besides Dyson, who projects to be the A's hardest signs?
ML: Definitely Max Stassi.

Can the A's sign all three of Stassi, Green, and Dyson?

Every guy the A's pick, they pick because they think there is a chance they can sign them. Certainly some of these are smaller chances than others, but I think because the A's do have a deep system, they can take some of these risks to see if they can add high level talent from the later rounds. Nino Leyja was an example of a mid-round HS selection last year who signed. Given what the A's were dealing with in terms of no second rounder, I think they have done pretty well.
...
If the A's can sign Green, Stassi and Dyson, it is probably a top 10 draft. There are teams with multiple first round picks who are going to come out higher than the A's almost no matter what given that they had so many more high round picks.

Poll

Who is your favorite pick between Green, Dyson, and Stassi?

Grant Green

162 votes

Max Stassi

176 votes

Sam Dyson

11 votes

349 votes | Poll has closed

The new Oakland Athletic: Grant Green

vignette17 — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 23:18:08 -0000

I'm sure we'll all read a ton about Green in the next few days. And I'm sure someone has scooped me already. But I'd like to give my humble attempt to give you a little bit of outside information.

Green went to high school at Canyon High in Anaheim Hills. He won the ROY there in 2004 after batting 31-72 (.430 AVG) as a sophomore. He followed up going 40-88 his junior year (.455 average) with 3 HRs and 14 SBs. His senior year (2006) he batted a similar .453 with 4 HRs and again 14 SBs. In 2005, he was a member of Team USA's junior team along with Brett Anderson and Adrian Cardenas. At the 2005 Pan Am Championships, he hit .412.

Heading into the 2006 draft, Green was considered to be around a 3rd round pick talent-wise, but USC offered him a scholarship. Signability allowed Green to fall. Green was first drafted by the Padres in the 14th round in 2006 and he wanted $1.4 million to sign. That 1.4 million was mid to late first round money or what the Astros paid Max Sapp with the 23rd pick.

San Diego decided that 1.4 million was too much and Green went to USC. His freshman year he was the starting SS. He hit .316/.388/.491/.879. He showed some power with 26 XBH: 14 doubles, 10 triples (a USC record), and two home runs. He added 6 SBs. His K/BB was 51/25. He also played in the Cape Cod league and there was named the 18th best prospect in the league after playing for the Yarmouth-Dennis Red Sox. He played every infield position and he hit .291 with four home runs and 11 stolen bases.

Sophomore year was more of the same for Green:.390/.438/.644/1.082. He hit 29 XBH: 15 doubles, five triples, nine home runs. He had 10 SBs. His K/BB was 35/15. Green was looking like a very solid prospect going into the summer. But it was when he went to the Cape Cod League that he really made a name for himself.

He hit .348/.451/.537/.988 with 6 HRs and 19 XBH. He stole 10 bases. Fittingly, he played for the Chatham A's. His performance earned him the Robert A. McNeece Outstanding Pro Prospect Award as the league's top pro prospect, besting Ackley among others. He also was the All-Star game MVP with a game-tying HR in the 8th inning. He looked poised for a breakout in 2009 and was being compared to Longoria by his Cape Cod coach John Schiffner.

Going into his junior year, Green was the consensus favorite for the number two pick. On February 6th, Jim Callis said "I think Green has more power and upside with the bat [than Tim Beckham]." Going into the season, Green was sitting on top of the world. A few questioned his low walk percentage but he had cut down his strikeout percentage between his freshman and sophomore campaign.

And then 2009 happened. Green started out very, very slowly. But after 110 PAs, Green had gotten his triple slash in familiar territory. Green was hitting .375/.455/.552/1.007. However underneath that lay many warning signs. He had 11 walks and 22 strikeouts. His BABIP was .472, 139 points higher than the PAC-10 average BABIP. His near 20 strikeout percentage and near 10 walk percentage was not a recipe for MLB success. In fact, only one quality major leaguer has succeeded with a less than 10% BB percentage in college since 2001: Troy Tulowitski.

Green's line now sits at .374/.429/.569/.997. He has 24 XBH, 16 SBs, and a 38/20 K/BB ration. He has a .444 BABIP and 8.6 BB%. His K% is 16%. Beyond the Boxscore's adjusted GPA (I'll let them explain it if you click on the link) for Green sits at .341, well below Ackley's .431 or Wheeler's .432.

Then again, the draft is as much about tools as stats. The adjusted OPS leaders of college are as littered with Dan Johnson and John McCurdys as Ryan Brauns.

Green is a toolshed. After all, he wouldn't have drawn any comparisons to Longoria and Tulo if he wasn't a 5 tool athlete. He stands at 6'3 180 and swings RH.

From BaseballBeginnings his scouting grades 80 being the highest (Now/Future):

Hit 40/65
Power 40/55
Run 50/50
Arm 45/50
Field 40/50

From TheBaseballCube 100 being the highest:

Power 85
Speed 66
Contact 45
Patience 41

Green's swing is not built for power but for average. Take it from him:

"When I came here [to USC], Coach (Chad) Kreuter told me I had a Japanese-type swing. I was really compact and I hit everything to right field. They widened me out.

...

I kind of fought it at first. Coach Doyle (Wilson) came in after my freshman year and pretty much tried to change my swing. I was stubborn. It worked. I had been a freshman All-American and went out to the Cape and did well. I was fighting him a little bit, but when he sat me down one day and said, ‘This is exactly what we want to do. I’ll show you some tapes of big leaguers who have it.’ As I thought about it more and more, it made sense. He was working with me on getting the swing planted as fast as possible and as long as possible. It made sense, so I started to buy into it. I had a really steep bat angle and he was really big on getting it to the hitting plane as soon as possible and staying there a long time."

This change in his swing could be partially responsible for early season struggles.

Ok, I think that's enough links for now. In summary, Green's defense, effort, walk rate, and power are sometimes questioned. But he seems like a great average hitter with a chance to develop 15 HR power. Anytime you can pick up the guy who was considered the #2 pick a couple months ago at 13 you have to do it.

Poll

Overall, do you like the pick?

Yes

304 votes

No

20 votes

324 votes | Poll has closed

Projecting the Health of the 2009 A's

vignette17 — Fri, 16 Jan 2009 10:26:54 -0000

We've had a number of multi-part FanPosts around AN that have been very interesting, well recommended, and well commented. So, since we've had so many great series, I figured I'd make my own series, just so that we could look back on the other series and see how great they were in comparison.

I'll warn you now, instead of breaking this into 9 different FanPosts (as any sane person would), I decided I would do all the batters in one crazy long FP. If you want you can skip down to the white meat (and as a bonus, skip all or most of my terrible writing), as I've copied and pasted my predictions for all the position players and put it near the bottom.

The subject I'll be covering is a subject that's become very near and dear to our hearts. That subject is health. The A's have broken their record set for most DL uses in the last two seasons. In 2007, they used 12 different CFers! Can you name all 12 without looking?

Those twelve in no particular order were: Kotsay, Swish, MB, Buck, Shannon Stewart, Jeff DaVanon, Chris Snelling, Hiram Bocachica, Danny Putnam, Ryan Langerhans, Bobby Kielty, and Kevin Thompsen.

And yes, I’m thinking the same thing as you. Who the hell is Kevin Thompsen? Kevin Thompsen is the reason I’m doing this. No one could have predicted Kevin Thompsen would play CF for the 2007 A’s. And yet, here I am, and I’m going to try and predict the position players who will play all 9 positions throughout the 2009 season and how many PA’s they each will get. And I’ll give you a spoiler: Kevin Thompsen will not be getting any of them.

Recently, Sky Kalkman posted a spreadsheet that allows you to fill in 4 data points for each hitter in your team’s proposed lineup: each player’s individual wOBA, PA, fielding and BR (baserunning runs; basically 0 for average runners and +/- .25 for above average and below average baserunners and +/- .5 for your Raj Davises and Frank Thomases). To calculate each player’s expected wOBA you can use any projection system you like: Oliver, CHONE, Bill James, Ron Shandler, CAIRO, Marcel, PECOTA, whatever. Fielding is the same way. BR is a rough estimation and very minimal in most cases. However, what those projection systems don’t predict that accurately is PA’s. A cautious but smart fan can actually outpredict those systems.

For example, CHONE has all four of Buck, Barton, Giambi, and Sweeney at more than 350 PAs. That’s unlikely to happen, as all 4 are unlikely to be playing at the same time.

Well as fans, and using the best information available, let’s come up with accurate guesses for each position.

First off, we need to know how many PAs each position should get. I will examine in depth how many PAs each position got in 2007. Basically, each position should get somewhere between 760 and 620, depending on where each player bats in the lineup, decreasing by about 18 per lineup position. However, doing so would be a lot of work, especially considering guys like Ryan Sweeney will be getting a lot of PAs in multiple places. What I’m going to do instead is increase PAs by 20 PAs over the 2008 total if the starting player is a much better player, 10 if the starting player is a little better, and 0 if the increase is minimal. Then, I’ll see if the calculations work in the end.

Last year from the catcher position the A’s had 667 PAs from the catcher’s spot. 575 went to Suzuki and 92 went to Rob Bowen. Since both players remain in their roles for 2009 season (especially that those dreaded Greg Zaun rumors are dead) it shouldn’t change too much. Since Suzuki and his backup catcher are likely the only players getting PA from the catcher position, I’ll assume that Kurt and his backup will get all of the 675 PA’s that A’s catchers will get in 2009.

So what do the system’s project? ZiPS predicts 446. Bill James, on the opposite end of the spectrum predicts 599. In the middle lie Marcel (519), CAIRO (513), Oliver (586), and CHONE (504). That’s an average of 523 and standard deviation of 52.

I tend to think that Suzuki’s biggest attribute is that he is durable. Most catchers can’t catch as much as Suzuki and since some of the systems are bound to give Suzuki a number of PA’s closer to the mean PA’s of AL catchers, I think they will be off. I don’t necessarily think it’s the best idea for Kurt’s long-term health, but I have a feeling Geren will send Kurt to the dish about the same amount as last year. Bowen will get all the remaining ones.

Prediction:

Kurt 550

Bowen 125

Total 675

Last year, A’s first basemen had a total of 655 PA’s. The great majority (514 to be specific) of those went to Daric Barton. 48, 45, and 36 PA’s went to Wes Bankston, Mike Sweeney, and Hannahan respectively. 11 went to Jeff Baisley. 1 went to Rob Bowen.

In 2009, it’ll be a lot different. I expect Giambi to get most of the playing time at 1b, despite the Chronicle’s contrary report. His primary backup will probably be Jeff Baisley or Jack Hannahan. At some point, probably when an OFer gets hurt, Barton will be called up and Giambi will move to DH and Cust to the OF. Another key aspect will be whether Giambi can stay healthy all year.

Let’s first examine the easiest claim: will Giambi stay healthy? Giambi the last three years has had 565 PA’s (2008), 303 PA’s (2007), and 579 PA’s (2006). It wouldn’t make much sense to average these since the 303 came in an injury-plagued (kinda redundant, no?) year and 2006 and 2008 were both healthy years. Giambi is, for all we know, healthy today, so I would assume that the healthy seasons are more indicative of his future than his injury-plagued one (although we can’t ignore it). And if you like conspiracy theories, Giambi has probably perfected his HGH use by now. But Giambi is a year older (aren’t we all?). Without any other information, I would guess that his PA’s will fall from last year but only by about 50.

Do the systems agree with that statement? Marcel says 513 PA’s. BJ says 551; CHONE, 488. Oliver and CAIRO both use the same digits with 560 and 506 respectively. ZiPS hasn’t projected Giambi yet. The systems that did project Giambi project an average of 524 with a standard deviation of 27. 525 are about the same number of PA’s I would expect. So let’s use that assumption from now on.

Now the question becomes how many of those PA’s of Giambi will come at 1b and how many at DH? Last year, the Yankees had a very crowded DH situation with three terrible fielding Ofers, Johnny Damon, Giambi, and Jorge Posada. Giambi still got over 100 PA’s at DH. But Giambi did spend 79.2% of his time in the field last year. The A’s have their own terrible fielding OF who should be DHing competing with Giambi for that spot. They also have a good fielding 1b and three good fielding OFers.

Which leaves us with a conundrum. Who sits? Barton, Buck, or Sweeney (assuming Cunningham starts in AAA)? Buck or Sweeney’s health probably will make that decision easy soon. But for now, they’re both healthy. In fact, Barton’s health may be what helps make the decision easier. In case we’ve forgotten, Staplehead had hip surgery that was deemed "successful." But even if he is completely healthy (and remember this is the A’s we’re talking about), the surgery gives the A’s the excuse to send Barton down to AAA to "recover and make sure he’s 100%."

Another issue is that since Barton played all season last year (except for a 20 day period where he had a bad confrontation with a pool, but since he spent that time on the ML DL it counts for service time) he has 1.021 years of service time. I’m not positive on how this works but if Barton spends 42 days in the minors this year, I think his service time will then continue to be under 2 years after 2009. This scenario keeps him under club control an extra year meaning he would not become a FA until 2014. With quality players everywhere and perfectly good reason to, it would simply make sense for the A’s to get that extra year. At the same time, yes, it allows the A’s to retry the Barton to 3b experiment. 42 days into the season is mid to late May. And since the A’s have two brittle OFers, the A’s should wait until one misses time after that magic 42 day mark.

So what does this tell us? At least, for about a fourth of the season Giambi will be the starting 1b. Let’s guess that in order to keep him healthy, the A’s have Giambi play in the field 75% of his PA’s and DH 25% of his PA’s and he will take a day off 20% of the time. However when Barton is in AAA, almost 100% of Giambi’s PAs will come at 1b (since it will become a choice between Baisley/Hannahan or Buck/Sweeney as another player in the lineup). That means 80% of days that Barton is in AAA, Giambi will be the A’s starting 1b. That will be about 135 PA’s. To reach that 75-25 ratio, assuming 525 PA’s overall, that’s 370 PA’s at 1b and 155 at DH (or pinch hitting). After Barton is called up Giambi will only play 1b for 135 PA’s and DH/PH for 155. Since A’s 1b will around 675 PA’s, and 30 PA’s will go to Hannahan/Baisley when Barton is in the minors, assuming Barton gets 95% of the rest of the PAs, he will still get 260 PA’s.

Prediction:

Giambi 370

Barton 260

Hannahan 35

Baisley 10

Second base provides a much easier picture to predict playing time. The unicorn will remain the starting 2b. In 2008, A’s 2b had 690 PAs. 505 PAs went to Ellie, 75 to Eric Patterson, 64 to Cliff Pennington, 23 to Donnie Murphy, 16 to Gregorio Petit, and 7 to Brooks Conrad.

Ellie is without a doubt, the best 2b on the team and he will get every start he is healthy for. But the question is whether he will be healthy. In 2008, Ellie missed a variety of games with minor injuries like pulled hamstrings, etc. In 2007, he was nearly completely healthy, played in 161 games and 642 PA’s. In 2006, Ellie made us rue the name of D’Angelo Jimenez, as Ellis was semi-healthy throughout the year (500 PA’s), only to miss the ALCS.

The projection systems predict the following for Ellis in 2009: 518 PA’s (Marcel), 527 (CHONE), 564 (BJ), 544 (CAIRO), 485 (ZiPS), and 502 (Oliver). Those average to 523 PA’s with a standard deviation of 26. Looks mighty similar to Giambi, doesn’t it? ZiPS again gave a number a lot smaller than the rest, and it only predicts ABs and BBs, which I added. I find it unlikely that HBPs, SFs, and SHs would provide too much of a difference (Although I did find that in a recent article at THT where the author stated Giambi’s BABIP in the .230s, while Fangraphs said it resided near .260, that the THT author had stated BABIP without including HBPs and SF’s in their formula, which caused the difference. I don’t know if that was purposeful or not though), but it’s possible. Omitting ZiPS gives Ellis an average of 531 PA’s and a 21 sd.

I would have expected Ellis to have something closer to 550 PA’s but only two projection systems see close to that. BJ is also known for being a little too generous on hitters. And CAIRO is probably the least known and least trusted of the projection systems. I guess that leaves me to guess that Ellie will probably get 530. I want to be more optimistic than that, but to better than the projection systems requires a cautious approach.

That leaves another 170 PA’s at the second base position. The last time the A’s had a 2b who wasn’t Mark Ellis get 100 PA’s was Marco Scutaro. Scutaro was firmly entrenched as the backup IF at the time. We don’t have a guy in similar position today. Which leaves us with 170 PAs to go around between Cliff Pennington, Gregorio Petit, Yung Chi Chen, Joe Dillon (assuming he’s not claimed), Jack Hannahan and Eric Patterson. Everyone but Dillon is on the 40-man roster.

Of the group, Patterson had the most impressive stats at AAA and the most MLB experience. However, he’s also probably the worst fielder. Pennington seems to be the next logical option. He played 2b last year after Patterson’s failed attempt. Hannahan could also be an option as either he or Jeff Baisley will be the primary backup at 3b and he spent time at 2b in the minors before the A’s acquired him. Petit could make some sense as he’s still young and can certainly field, but the A’s don’t seem to like him, and his bat doesn’t give the A’s much reason to like him. Yung Chi Chen hasn’t really projected as much more than a backup (highest Sickels grade: C+ with a good comment) and I can’t speak to his defense.

These facts lead me to conclude that Pennington will be the primary backup getting 90 PAs. Hannahan will get a few as Pennington will be at SS and Ellis will go down for a couple days. Hannahan’ll get 25 PAs. Petit will get a short try out when someone gets injured and get 25. The other 20 will go to Patterson.

Prediction

Ellis 530

Pennington 90

Hannahan 25

Petit 25

Patterson 20

Shortstop becomes another interesting position. The only thing AN likes better than coming up with ways to replace Bobby Crosby is complaining about him. SS, put simply, is the easiest way for the A’s to improve the team. The A’s are playing with a replacement level (or slightly above replacement) SS. So here comes the moment of truth: do I predict Crosby to remain in green and gold? Do I predict a Hardy trade? Do I predict a Cabrera signing? Or do I predict something different? I’m going to cop out. I’m going to project BoCro and update that as necessary.

A’s SSs in 2008 logged 676 PAs. Last year, the A’s gave BoCro 605 PAs, Donnie Murphy 34, Cliff Pennington 28, and Gregorio Petit 7. However, 2008 was the first year Bobby appeared in 100 games since his rookie season. Amazingly, his OPS was also the highest it had been since 2005. Until last year, Crosby just could not stay healthy.

So what do the projections see in 2009? Obviously, they will be between the 605 PAs of suckiness of 2008, the 374 sucky PAs of 2007, and the 398 sucky PAs of 2006. Marcel sees 540. BJ sees 621 (so much for my theory). CHONE sees 499. CAIRO believes it will be 476. Oliver sees 606. ZiPS sees 454. Those average out 533 with a sd of 63 (!). The projection systems obviously have no idea what to expect. Say we eliminate the highest total (BJ) and lowest (ZiPS). We are left with an average of 530 and sd of 49 (!). And that’s with 4 data points.

Since Bobby’s injuries of the past have mostly consisted of fractures (his hand once, his left hand once, and his ribs once) it’s likely that he will not miss time from a past injury. The one area of concern (besides his performance) is his back. Twice Bobby has strained his lower back. Back injuries always concern me (probably because of Kotsay), but both strains occurred in the same month, August 2006. I would say going forward Crosby will be healthy and able to play for 550ish PAs. Crosby is too expensive to be a bench player and to trade.

Possible replacements for BoCro have been gone over extensively here. Beane could sign Cabrera, or trade for Tejada midseason, or even trade for Hardy midseason. I will not even try to predict Billy Beane’s move for SS.

For now I’ll assume that BoCro will get the 550 PAs that he will be capable of getting. That leaves 125 PAs for the backup SSs. As I guessed when I predicted the 2b, Pennington will be the primary backup. Besides Pennigton and Crosby, the only player capable of playing SS is Petit. Again I’d say Petit will get most of the PAs. I’ll guess 100 of the 125. The other 25 go to Petit.

Prediction

Crosby 550

Pennington 100

Petit 25

3b is probably the most important position for the A’s in 2009, with the possible exception of the rotation. Yet, the third baseman on the A’s with the most talent is as obvious at 3b as it is at 2b. Unfortunately, that 3b also is the hardest player to project PT (playing time not Paul Thomas) on the A’s.

In 2008, A’s 3b saw 633 PAs. 439 went to Hannahan. 61 went to Eric Chavez. 59 went to Murphy. 36 went to Baisley. 25 went to Pennington. 12 went to Conrad. 1 went to Barton.

It’s obvious Chavez is the starting 3b as long as he is healthy and able to play. Chavez started his career pretty healthy. As a rookie he played 115 games. He followed that up by playing 153, 151, 153, 156. And then came 2004. It was the first year that Chavvy went on the DL. However, it was nothing to worry about; Damaso Marte hit him in the hand. But, hey, what can you do? In 2005, he was healthy again (but getting hit in the hand had made him forget how to draw a walk); he played 160 games.

But in 2006, everything started going wrong for Chavvy. He still played 137 games, and didn’t go on the DL, but Chavvy was not his pre-2006 self. He seemed to be just toughing through the pain. 2007 was more of the same. His production kept suffering and this time, he went on the DL for a back injury. In the 2007 offseason, he had his first surgery on his back. 2008 again saw a decline in games played and production: he played 23 games and posted his first sub .700 OPS of his career.

Going into 2009, Chavvy will be 31, the last year of his prime years, and yet his PAs the last five years will have gone: 575, 668, 568, 378, 61. His OPS in those same five years has been: .898, .795, .786, .752, .688. Chavvy is in other words a projection system’s worst nightmare.

Let’s still look at what those projection systems say about number of PAs (Their OPS projections are for another day). Oliver sees 128 PAs. Marcel sees 285. ZiPS sees 361. CAIRO sees 373. Oliver sees CHONE sees 531. BJ sees 623. That’s an average of 383.5 and a standard deviation of 160.5. Basically, the projection systems have such a bad idea of what Chavvy will do that they are 95% sure that Chavez will get between 62 and 700. Now that’s a wide range.

One of the most annoying things one deals with as an A’s fan is how the A’s treat injuries. I’ve already mentioned how Chavvy kept playing through an obvious injury. The A’s have even gone as far as to have Crosby suit up to play even though he couldn’t to gain leverage in trades. Every once in a while a player will simply disappear for a week. The A’s obviously have a policy of being dishonest with injuries to gain leverage.

One of the second most annoying things is Chavvy’s honesty. He’ll say how the team is worse than the Angels or other such nonsense that could never be true. So when we hear quotes at the beginning of the offseason how Chavvy might never play 3b, it sounds like Chavvy being honest. But now when I hear that Chavvy is feeling the best he’s felt in decades, it leaves me two options. Either Chavvy is really feeling better or the team finally convinced him to not be so open. Since Chavvy has had some stupid comments in the past and yet still was honest, I find that he’s probably telling the truth. Then again, his injury history does not seem like it would suddenly increase. How am I supposed to know? What am I, a psychic?

Since this is a cautious estimation I would guess that it’ll likely be a return to semi-health for Chavvy. That means about 370 PAs. That’s in between the only projections that are close to each other. It’s also nicely like his 2007. I hope Chavvy gets closer to 500; but I don’t like getting hurt. Besides, this is supposed to be a cautious estimate.

How many of those PAs will come at 3b? I’m going to go out on a limb and guess that Chavvy’s 2009 will be like his 2007: he’ll play 3b almost all of his PAs, even if that’s not necessarily the best thing for him. Let’s save 30 PAs for DHing and pinch hitting.

With Chavez healthy most of the year, Beane is unlikely to acquire a 3b in trade. He could make a minor deal (David Freese for Eric Patterson does make some sense). But the best 3b likely to be available, Beltre, is unlikely to join the A’s unless Chavez suffers a serious injury.

That leaves another question. Who will be the primary backup at 3b? If Chavvy’s only getting 340 PAs at 3b, the primary backup will get significant PT. There are two obvious options: Jeff Baisley and Jack Hannahan.

And then there’s Daric Barton. Barton certainly should try playing 3b in the minors. If it doesn’t work, it doesn’t work. But as I’ve already stated, it makes a lot of sense for the A’s to send him down to AAA. And if he’s down there, the A’s need a good reason. Recovering from surgery won’t last as an excuse forever. Learning 3b certainly would give the A’s a reason to keep him in AAA.

But even if Barton does make a successful conversion to 3b, when he’s called up he will probably see plenty of time at 1b. Giambi will need plenty of time at DH to keep him healthy and likely with an OF injured (more on that later), it comes down to Cust playing OF with Giambi at DH or Cunningham playing OF with Cust at DH, Giambi at 1b, and Barton at 3b. I’d rather have one bad defender than two (even if Barton successfully converts to 3b, I doubt he’ll be more than an average defender until he really learns the position in a year or two).

Which leaves us with Baisley and Hannahan. Of course, they both have pros and cons. Baisley (as a RHH) would give us a nice little opportunity to platoon Chavez while also providing a backup at 3b. Simultaneously, it also allows the A’s to explore whether Baisley has potential. Hannahan is pretty much a known quantity at this point. However Hannahan also provides very good defense and gives more positional flexibility. Hannahan can play 2b; Baisley cannot. Another pro for Hannahan is that he does stay healthy, unlikely Baisley. Then again, the A’s will likely have Pennington as a backup SS and he has already learned 2b, so the A’s might not need the position flexibility. But with a brittle/sucky SS, and a 2b susceptible to small nagging injuries, Hannahan does look nice.

These factors all lead me to conclude that the A’s will start with Baisley as their backup 3b. However, he’s likely to get injured. At some point Hannahan will be called up. And I have a feeling Barton will get a few games in there as well.

Prediction

Chavez 340

Baisley 145

Hannahan 135

Barton 30

Finally, another easy position. The A’s LF is a guy whose not gonna be sharing PT based on merit and he’s been relatively healthy. And he’s the main reason why the 2009 A’s team will be so much better than their 2008 counterparts.

That said 2008 was not actually that bad a position for the A’s. The bane of AN’s existence only registered 188 PAs there. Jack Cust got the majority of the playing time with 309 PAs. In order, Cunningham registered 76 of the other PAs, Chris Denorfia received 34, both guys from the Cubs trade, Matt Murton and Patterson, got 29, Travis Buck got 20 and Ryan Sweeney got 17. In total, the LF position saw 702 PAs.

Matt Holliday received 623 PAs in Colorado. That was actually less than the previous two years where Holliday logged 713 and 667 PAs. His DL history suggests that he’s still a good bet for 625-650 PAs again: the only time he went on it was for a fractured right pinkie in 2005. What caused him to only play 139 games as opposed to the 150+ of the years before? I’m not sure, but I’d guess it is just simple pulled hamstring, Mark Ellis type, small, nagging injuries.

What do the projection systems say? CAIRO says 575; CHONE, 633; Marcel, 583; BJ, 671; ZiPS sees 651; Oliver, Oliver, 628. That’s an average of 623.5 and a sd of 34.5. Eliminating the most optimistic and most pessimistic (that’s BJ and CAIRO) gives an average of 623.75 and sd of 25. My eyeballing guess before was somewhere between 625 and 650. The systems seem to agree with the lower estimate. Again, these estimates should be cautious anyways, so we’ll stick with that. 625 PAs it is. Let’s say 10 of those come in pinch hitting situations.

Given that Holliday is a very good defender, I find it highly unlikely that he’ll move off his natural position of LF. That could change if say Adam Dunn or Manny Ramirez’s price drops enough that BB could sign one of the two and plug them into LF and move Holliday to RF. It’s unlikely (Dunn will probably go to the Nats despite their recent posturing and Manny will probably go to LA or SF or someone else offering 20 mil+ a year). Holliday could potentially play RF with Jack Cust in LF, but Cust has played RF for the A’s before and I would imagine Holliday is a lot more comfortable in LF. I don’t see the A’s messing with their superstar.

So who gets the rest of the PAs? Jack Cust is a natural LF and if Holliday isn’t playing, the A’s will want all the bats they can get in the lineup. I would say Cust will get some PAs out there. If the A’s want good defenders out there, say at the end of a game, Holliday is likely to be that defensive replacement if he’s sitting. But let’s say a guy like Aaron Cunningham will get a few PAs too. Matt Murton could also get a few PAs, but as a bad fielder who I don’t think can play RF, and even though he rakes lefties, he won’t steal any PAs from Holliday. Eric Patterson just has too many people with his skill set and more in front of him (Raj Davis and Chris Denorfia in the OF and Petit and Pennington at 2b). There’s also Ben Copeland. But I have a feeling he’ll go the way of Ryan Goleski (anyone rather have had Josh Hamilton?).

Prediction

Holliday 615

Cust 70

Cunningham 25

Ah, back to some tough predictions. The starting CFer for the A’s is easy: Ryan Sweeney. But, he’s injury prone and he could be susceptible to a sophomore slump as epitomized by fellow OFer Travis Buck. If you think Sweeney’s style seems like it would be impervious to that dreaded slump, I need point you no farther than his best buddy Staplehead.

So, who occupied the CF spot in 2008? CarGo registered the most PAs there (246), Rajai was second (198), Sweeney came third (166), Denorfia was next (29), while each Emil Brown and Jeff Fiorentino each got 1. That’s a low total of 641 PAs.

Of those three are gone and two are backups. Besides, Sweeney has already been declared the starting CF. Last year he got 433 PAs split between all three OF spots. He also got 42 in the minors. In 2007, he got 450 PAs in the minors and 49 with the Sox. In 2006, he got 492 in the minors and 35 in the show. Last year, Sweeney went on the DL twice, once for a left toe contusion and once for a sprained right thumb. Neither should really be a concern going forward, but it does show the tendency of Sweeney to miss chunks of time with small nagging injuries (just like Mark Ellis and to a lesser extent Matt Holliday). Put it all together and I’d give a rough estimate that Sweeney will have around 475 PAs next year. Some are bound to be in the minors, be it by injury or bad performance, so I’ll say Sweeney receives 450 PAs with the A’s.

Some of those PAs will probably in RF, as the backup OF will probably be able to play a very good CF (be it Davis or Denorfia). Let’s say 300 PAs come in CF (we’ll see why in the RF section). That leaves 350 PAs for other players. When Cust plays RF and Holliday LF and Buck is healthy, Buck is a better hitter than Sweeney (though a worse defender). So he’s likely to get some PAs in CF. He could also get CF PAs when Sweeney is injured or day to day, as Cust moving to RF and Giambi DH allows a better hitter in the lineup than Raj Davis or CD (the backup 1b or Barton). However, given Buck’s health problems and the fact that he will be mostly playing RF when Sweeney is healthy, Buck will probably only get 50 PAs in CF.

That leaves another 300 for the backup OF. I’ve already stated the possible candidates for the position: Raj Davis, Chris Denorfia, Aaron Cunningham, Matt Murton, Eric Patterson, Ben Copeland, Jav Herrera, and Richie Robnett. Robnett is the only one sure of NOT playing on the 2009 A’s. Herrera is a dark horse candidate that the A’s could rush to the big team, but it’s much more likely they will send him to AAA. That leaves Matt Murton, Eric Patterson and Ben Copeland with a distinct disadvantage. None can play a good CF and with roster space already in question, it’s unlikely the A’s will want to carry 5 Ofers (though they did when they had Kielty and early in the year last year). The A’s do start the year off with three off days in 19 games, so the pitching should be well rested in case the A’s do go with a 5 man OF.

That leaves Aaron Cunningham, Raj Davis, and Chris Denorfia for the backup spot. As I mentioned before with Daric Barton, leaving Aaron Cunningham in AAA allows the A’s to gain an extra year of service time, and they have more of an excuse to leave him in AAA than Barton. The A’s will probably want to leave Cunningham down long enough for him to avoid being a Super Two. The A’s called him up on August 30 last year. He stayed with the team the rest of the year. That’s 30 days of service time. To qualify as a Super Two Cunningham will have needed to accumulate around 2 years and 128 days (or thereabouts) of service time (this is after the 2011 season).

That means that the maximum the A’s will want to have Cunningham with the big club is 98 days of service time. If Cunningham were to serve this time in one big chunk without being sent back down, that would mean he would be called up around the 1st of July. But since I’m assuming the A’s are going to go to so much trouble to protect Cunningham for another year (same with Barton), I’m assuming that the A’s feel Cunningham has a role in their future. And since he has a role in this future, it makes no sense to call him up unless he sees regular PAs.

Therefore, Cunningham doesn’t make sense as a backup OF, despite the A’s tendency to use fourth OFers a lot in recent years (Brown had 438 PAs, Stewart 630, Payton 588). I feel Cust is the A’s fourth OFer in 2009 (Davis/CD being the fifth OF), crappy defense and all. Barton allows that to work since after 45ish days (around mid-May) since playing Cust in RF puts Barton’s bat in the lineup and Buck/Sweeney in center instead of CD or Davis. Which brings us back to the original argument. Who has more merit on the 2009 squad Denorfia or Davis?

Between them last year, Denorfia and Davis logged around 300 PAs. That’s a lot of PAs. I’ve already estimated that the backup will get around 265 PAs (assuming Cunningham gets 35 or so). It’s worth putting a good option out there. One would think that the easy choice would be the guy whose wOBA is projected at 20 points higher, at around league average. However, CHONE projects Davis as nearly 12 runs better in CF than Denorfia. Since they do involve tiny sample sizes, the projections aren’t that accurate (offensively and defensively, but more so defensively), but I would think that Davis is a better defender. Which do you want more in a backup OF, defense or offense? Both are baserunning whizzes, so I’ll count them as equal.

There are two other factors that count in Davis’ factor; if both Denorfia and Davis were put on waivers, would either get claimed? Davis became an Athletic through the waiver process. He left the Giants and then was claimed by the A’s. That means he made it all the way through the NL (which would more suit Rajai’s style of play, one would think) before he reached the A’s. I don’t think his 2008 was good enough to change teams’ opinions, but I would think that there’s about 50% chance of Davis being claimed. Denorfia I would think has less than that, mainly for the reason I’m about to mention. What’s the key word of the last two seasons for the A’s? Health. It’s still one of the A’s biggest issues and it’s something Denorfia doesn’t have. Denorfia came to the A’s injured. Last year was Denorfia’s second healthiest year of his career and he still only managed 300 PAs or so. Denorfia’s got some talent, but his talent isn’t enough to overcome that he’s seldom healthy. Add in the fact that Davis is the incumbent and has more of Geren’s (or Beane for you conspiracy theorists) confidence, and I’ll guess that Davis sees the lion’s share of backup CF duties.

Prediction

Ryan Sweeney 300

Raj Davis 200

Chris Denorfia 65

Travis Buck 50

Aaron Cunningham 35

What happened in RF in 2008? Surprisingly, RF wasn’t the reason the A’s offense sucked. A’s RFers got 707 PAs and posted a .724 OPS (A’s Cfers got 641 PAs and posted a .658 OPS), about league average. Sweeney got 244 PAs there. Brown got 217. Buck got 151. CarGo got 64. Jack Cust got 18. Cunningham got 9. Denorfia got 4.

Before I say anything else, I am a Travis Buck apologist. I’m a relatively recent A’s fan (became one in 1998) and Miguel Tejada was always my favorite player. When he moved on, I was depressed but still a fan. And I was determined to root, from then on, for the front of the laundry and not the back. Of course, as a hard-core fan, that can be hard to do. In 2005, I first went to Spring Training and had heard of this up and coming shut down pitcher. The first ST game I went to, that pitcher struck out the side. And they weren’t AAA nobodies; they were legitimate big leaguers. Huston Street had become my new favorite player. It’s ironic that the pick the A’s used to draft Street came from letting Miggy go.

And then came the next few years. Soon Street trade rumors started popping up. I needed a new favorite player. The obvious choice would have been Swisher. I liked Swish. In fact, I got his autograph at ST in 2007. He was sitting by the dugout about an hour before the game giving out autographs; he had given out so many that there was no line for them. That’s an accomplishment even at ST. I asked for his autograph and he looked at me like I was going to sell his autograph immediately on eBay (hey, I can’t help my age group). But he did sign the shirt I gave him. I wish I had asked him to write "there’s a new 33 in town" but I was too star-struck and it was too sudden for me to think of it.

Anyway, long story short (bet you wouldn’t expect to find those words in a FanPost this long), 2007 was the year I was looking for a new favorite player (I had long since given up the notion that I would root only for the front of the shirt). It was that year that a fun loving rookie with long hair, a sweet stroke and a knack for doubles impressed me at every game I went to. He looked like the best natural LH hitter I had seen since Giambi. People even compared him to Giambi. TBuck had become my new favorite athletic.

This whole tangent is just to tell you that even though I’m biased towards all A’s players, I’m especially biased towards Buck. I think that he’s a much better player than Sweeney and that his 2008 was an aberration caused by shin splints and overthinking (I am not prone to believing that mental states can help a player do better, but I do think they can cause a player to do worse). Plus with a guy like Giambi in the lineup and clubhouse, I think he will get an even better mentor than he had with Swish (when he did well).

Even after writing all this, I will be the first to say that Buck had a terrible start of 2008 (that he finished at 99 OPS+ astounds me). He also has injury problems. He has not only been on the DL 3 times in his 2 year ML career, he’s also been day to day many times. His injuries include shin splints, a hamstring problem, a thumb problem, and proximity to Dan Johnson. Now that DJ is in Japan, Buck should be out of firing distance of industrial sunscreen. With Putnam in AAA, Buck is also unlikely to suffer from a grape attack. However with Rickey’s number being retired this year, Buck should be careful not to sleep on icepacks. Seriously though, I’m not a doctor, but shin splints seem like the type of an injury that could recur while the other two don’t.

So what has Buck done the last few years? Buck has only been a pro player for three and a half years. In 2006, Buck had 383 PAs between A+ and AA. In 2007, Buck had 343 PAs, mostly for the big club. Last year he had 369 PAs, between Sacramento, Oakland, and rookie league. That’s an average of 365 PAs a year. Sadly, that’s terrible. Until last year, Buck had never put up an OPS below .840 in more than 10 PAs. That’s amazing. I thought that Buck would quickly rise to stardom, or at least become Milton Bradley, great when healthy, but seldom healthy. But we all know what happened in 2008; Buck struggled terribly out of the gate and never recovered until September. It’s possible he struggles again (which would cause him to lose PAs), but I think that’s unlikely. When he is healthy, he’ll be playing.

So what do the projection systems think of Buck? Bill James projects 570 PAs. Even as an ardent Buck fun, that’s gotta be too high. CHONE projects 357. Marcel projects 319. Oliver projects 370. CAIRO projects 375. ZiPS projects 354. The average of those 6 systems give 391 PAs (greater than all but the James projection) but with a sd of 82. I’ve already mentioned that the BJ projections seem to be high for position players. If I cast out the James data point as an outlier, the average becomes 355 PAs and sd of 19.5. One could argue I should also throw out Marcel’s data. Marcel is based mostly on the previous year. Every year Buck has been healthy for more than 319 PAs. Marcel is projecting Buck to spend some time in the minors. It’s quite possible that he will spend some time rehabbing there, but guessing that Buck will not struggle in 2009 (which I am), it would make sense that Buck would spend more than 319 PAs with the A’s. If I eliminate Marcel, the average number of PAs projecting for Buck becomes 365. But since I’m being conservative, I’ll split the difference of averages with and without Marcel (but still eliminating BJ’s projection). That leaves me with 360 PAs. I’ve already guessed that 50 of those will come in center. That leaves 310 in right.

That leaves another 400 PAs in RF. I’ve already guessed that Sweeney will get 150 PAs in RF. The other player who will get significant time in RF is Cust. When Giambi needs to DH and Holliday is in LF, Cust needs to play in RF. I’ve predicted that Giambi will get 155 PAs at DH. Since Cust will almost assuredly be in the field every day Giambi DHs, and they should bat in about the same position in the lineup, Cust should get around 155 PAs in the field. There are reasons why he could get a few more and reasons why he could get a few less, so I’ll assume they cancel each other. Since there’s little reason to play Cust in the field with 4 plus defenders on the roster unless Giambi is DHing, Cust should only get those 155 in the field. I’ve already penciled him in for 70 in LF. That gives him 85 in RF.

Still there are 165 PAs available in RF. I’ve already mentioned that when Buck or Sweeney get hurt (and they will get hurt), the first reserve will be Barton, thus sending Giambi to DH and Cust to RF. In about June, the A’s could then call up their second reserve Aaron Cunningham. It would be nice if Cunningham could then play for these 165 PAs as he is a quality player. However, if Cunningham comes up, it will only be if he can get regular PAs, meaning two of Buck, Sweeney, Holliday, and Barton is hurting (or sucking). Those events will probably happen at some time, but probably not for all of those 165 PAs. I’ll guess that Cunningham only gets 100 of those PAs.

That leaves 65 PAs. These 65 PAs are likely going to go to a random AAA player who is doing well (as the A’s did with Bankston/Conrad last year). I’ll guess this player will be Javier Herrera. He needs to get one shot with the A’s. This is his last option year and the A’s will want to see a few PAs of one of their former top prospect. Herrera also is one of the few Rivercats who could play RF (I’m assuming this since he’s played CF, and hey, the A’s have Jack Cust playing RF sometimes).

Prediction

Buck 310

Sweeney 150

Cunningham 100

Cust 85

Herrera 65

DH/PHs

Finally, we reach our last position. It’s also one of the most complicated. I’m lumping together pinch hitters and DHs because the position could be filled with anyone on the A’s roster. Obviously, PHs are going to be hitting in high leverage situations, so they’re likely to be the better hitters on the team. But also, they tend to hit worse in those situations. In any case, let’s start at DH. Who batted at DH in 2008?

11 people got PAs at DH in 2008 for a total of 662: Jack Cust (266), Frank Thomas (215), Mike Sweeney (79), Chavez (34), Brown (19), Hannahan (18), Bankston (15), Davis (7), Suzuki (5), Denorfia (3), and Sweeney (1). Obviously, the top 3 got PAs there as starters. Chavez got some because he was partially injured. Brown, Hannahan, and Bankston played there because they were hitting well and there were no other options. Davis and Denorfia got there PAs because they replaced Jack Cust or Frank Thomas as a PR and the game ended up going to extra innings.

Obviously, the A’s full time DH duties will be split between Giambi and Cust. Since I’ve already discussed their situation I won’t rehash it here. However, I do need to know how many PAs I should pencil in for Cust. In 2008, Cust got 598 PAs. In 2007 between AAA got 607 between AAA and the big leagues. In 2006, between the minors and majors Cust got 594 PAs. He’s never suffered a major injury. Suffice it to say he is as good a bet as anyone to get 600 PAs.

BJ sees 573. Marcel sees 550. CHONE sees 589. CAIRO sees 588. Oliver sees 593. ZiPS sees 535. That’s an average of 571 and sd of 24.

These projections surprise me. Normally, they have seemed pretty in line with what I would guesstimate. However, no projection systems projected as many PAs as his lowest year in the last three. The systems must think that Cust either gets injured, sent down to AAA or is benched. I don’t find many of these scenarios likely at all. I may be jinxing the A’s here (I still blame grover for the A’s not signing Furcal) but I’m going to write in Cust for 600 PAs. This estimate is supposed to be conservative, but I could see Cust getting more than that or less than that but not that much in either case.

I’ve already guessed Cust will get 155 PAs in the field. That leaves 440 at DH (5 at PH). I’ve also guessed Giambi will get 155 at DH/PH. I’ll assume Giambi only get 145 at DH. Our two "starting" DHs accumulate 585 PAs. Now come the "injured" players. I’ve saved 30 Chavez PAs for DH and PH. 20 of those PAs will come at DH. I’ve guessed Holliday will have 10 PAs between PH and DH. Let’s guess 5 come at DH (maybe he gets a little injury and DHs for a day). That leaves about 60 PAs for everyone else (assuming 670 overall).

I’d guess that just like last year both Davis and Denorfia get 5 or so PAs PR and batting later in the game. That leaves 50 PAs to whoever the hot hitter is at the time. The hitters who are most likely to be hot and on the bench at a time are Cunningham and Barton. Let’s guess they split the PAs.

Prediction

Cust 440

Giambi 145

Chavez 30

Cunningham 25

Barton 25

Davis 5

Denorfia 5

What about PH? Last year, the A’s had 18 different PHs totaling 91 PAs: Mike Sweeney (14), Emil (14), Hannahan (9), Barton (8), Kurt (8), Sweeney(6), CarGo (6) Cust (5), Bowen (5), Davis (3), Thomas (2), Ellis (2), Murton (2), Denorfia (2), Cunningham (2), DJ (1), Buck (1), and Murphy (1). I’m not sure how many came in NL games, but I’d guess a fair bit of them did. Because of this every bench player I’m going to give 2 PAs with the noted exceptions of Herrera and Patterson who I’ll give 1 and Hannahan and Baisley who I’ll give 10 each. That’s Davis, Denorfia, Bowen, Pennington, and Petit who each get 2 PAs. In total that gives us 32 PAs. Also notice I didn’t include Cunningham and Barton. Everybody caught in the OF/1b/DH clusterfuck will get 5 except Giambi. That’s Holliday, Sweeney, Buck, Cunningham, Barton, and Cust. That’s another 30 PAs. That leaves us Chavez and Giambi. Both are likely to be rested a lot to protect their health and they both are quality hitters (or Chavez was). They will each get 10. Then we have Suzuki. He’s likely to get 10 PAs as a PH replacing Bowen late in the game. In total, that’s 92 PAs.

Prediction

Chavez 10

Giambi 10

Suzuki 10

Baisley 10

Hannahan 10

Holliday 5

Cunningham 5

Sweeney 5

Buck 5

Cust 5

Barton 5

Davis 2

Denorfia 2

Petit 2

Pennington 2

Bowen 2

Herrera 1

Patterson 1

And finally after all that reading (ahem, scrolling), here is the white meat. Here are my projections for the 2009 A’s by position:

Kurt 550

Bowen 125

Total 675 2008 Total 667

Giambi 370

Barton 260

Hannahan 35

Baisley 10

Total 675 2008 Total 655

Ellis 530

Pennington 90

Hannahan 25

Petit 25

Patterson 20

Total 690 2008 total 690

Crosby 550

Pennington 100

Petit 25

Total 675 2008 Total 676

Chavez 340

Baisley 145

Hannahan 135

Barton 30

Total 650 2008 Total 633

Holliday 615

Cust 70

Cunningham 25

Total 715 2008 Total 702

Ryan Sweeney 300

Raj Davis 200

Chris Denorfia 65

Travis Buck 50

Aaron Cunningham 35

Total 650 2008 total 641

Buck 310

Sweeney 150

Cunningham 100

Cust 85

Herrera 65

Total 710 2008 total 707

Cust 440

Giambi 145

Chavez 30

Cunningham 25

Barton 25

Davis 5

Denorfia 5

Total 675 2008 total 662

Chavez 10

Giambi 10

Suzuki 10

Baisley 10

Hannahan 10

Holliday 5

Cunningham 5

Sweeney 5

Buck 5

Cust 5

Barton 5

Davis 2

Denorfia 2

Petit 2

Pennington 2

Bowen 2

Herrera 1

Patterson 1

Total 52 2008 Total 51

Does the math work out? Well I have projected the A's to get 6207 PAs. In 2008 the average team got 6259 PAs. That's pretty damn close for not calculating PAs specifically based on the 6259 number.

That leaves us a few interesting facts about this projection:

I have projected 18 position players to get PAs for the A’s in 2009. The A’s had 26 position players play for them in 2008.

I did not project a player to sign with the A’s nor a midseason trade. Likely, there will be both. But if Orlando Cabrera signs with the A’s tomorrow or Nick Johnson is traded to the A’s tomorrow, I’m still going to be frustrated.

Use this FanPost to tell me if you think I’ve miscalculated on a player (do read my reasoning if you do though), post your own predictions (try not to be as exhaustive, this took me a while), or run simulations based on these projected PAs (I would, but I figured 18 pages in Word is long enough).

I said this was going to be a series in the beginning, so yes, I will write one for pitchers if you want me to (post if you do). If you don't, you can tell me to. I'm not sure I'm up for another one of these anyways.

Poll

Should I delete this FanPost and make it into separate ones?

No

29 votes

Yes, one for each offensive position

9 votes

Yes, one for each three offensive positions

13 votes

Yes, cut it in half

2 votes

I'm not gonna read it no matter what you do

14 votes

67 votes | Poll has closed

Waivers: An Overview and How We Should Use Them

vignette17 — Fri, 01 Aug 2008 22:00:50 -0000

Now that the July 31 deadline has passed and we still have dead weight on the team like Emil Brown, Alan Embree, Keith Foulke, Jack Hannahan and Lenny Dinardo, it's time we explore the August waiver deals that can happen.

First let's start with reviewing the rules:

1. Anybody on the 40-man roster can be placed on waivers without consent (or even knowledge) of the player.

2. Any team can claim any player placed on waivers, but preference first goes to the team with the worst record in the league the player was in. All teams have 2 days to claim the player on waivers. For example, if the A's were to place Embree on waivers, every team has 48 hours to claim him. But if multiple teams claim him, the team highest up on the waiver wire would be Seattle, then Cleveland, all the way through the Angels in the AL. If no one in the AL claims him, the same process happens in the NL (For reference, 25 teams would have to pass on Embree before the Phillies could claim him).

3. If a player is claimed on waivers, the team who placed him on waivers has three options:

A) The team can pull him off waivers and said player stays on the team and cannot be traded for 30 days.

B) The team can work out a trade with the team highest on the waiver wire who claimed him. If the player is traded, any player on a team's 40-man roster must pass through waivers.

C) The team can surrender the player and his remaining salary to the team that claims him for no players. This is what happened with Esteban Loaiza.

4. If a player is not claimed, he can be traded any time after he passes through waivers again for any other player who passed through waivers or for players not on the opposing team's 40-man roster.

So now that we've waded through that set of rather complicated rules (or at least I've rambled about them and you've skimmed over them), why does it matter to us? Well the A's have three players who seem like just the type of players waivers are perfect for. The players who we hear most about on waivers are of two types: guys who have very large salaries and guys who could have a little value but not enough to warrant a lot of interest prior to the non-waiver July 31 trade deadline.

For example, Nomar was put on waivers the other year. Guys like Andruw Jones when he was good and even Manny a couple years ago were placed on waivers (and Andruw almost certainly will be this year and just as certainly he won't be claimed). Again why does it matter to the A's?

This year was the year of the blockbuster prior to July 31. Manny, Griffey, Harden, Blanton, and CC all moved and a lot of teams were focused on those big names. August can now be the time to make the little trades. And Bobby Crosby, Alan Embree, and maybe Keith Foulke and Emil Brown could be those perfect little moves for some GM's.

Plus, waivers don't prevent us from our main goal of rebuilding. We can go for other teams prospects as long as they aren't on other teams' 40 man roster. However, we don't have too much leverege. If a team claims one of our guys like BoCro (say, the Dodgers), we can't drive up the price by going to the competition. We can only deal with them or hold onto our guy. But what we can do to increase our prospect haul is to take on a team's bad contracts. For example, if the Dodgers were to claim BoCro, we could take a guy like the aforementioned Andruw, assuming he clears waivers, and demand Scott Elbert, Andrew Lambo, and Ivan DeJesus. Or we could do something crazy and trade him to the Giants for Zito and Alderson, Bumgardner, Sosa, and Villalona.

Obviously those last deals are fantasy. But what about some more realistic (but still unreleastic) deals like Embree for Jason Donald if the Phillies, as apparently the A's wanted to add on the Blanton deal (according to PT, I haven't seen a link to confirm that)? Or something like Keith Foulke for Allen Craig (Nico, what do you think?)?

At the very least, who should be put on waivers? I would say obviously Embree, Foulke, Crosby, and Brown (Hannahan and Conrad are DFA candidates, not waiver candidates). If we're willing to accept low-level prospects we could even put Thomas or Ellis on waivers, because they will be claimed. If we wanted to buck convention, we could even put Street or Duke on waivers, but again we would have to accept non-40 man roster prospects and we couldn't start a bidding war, with only one team to negotiate with. However, if we don't find a deal we can always pull them back off waivers.

As I put in a post last night, it's time to clear some dead-weight off this team and perhaps get a little value in return. It's our last chance this season to do so, and I want to see Murton, Patterson, Petit, and Pennington get some extended PT this season.

Oh, and one more thing that I'm tempted to put on my sigline: call up Michael Richard and Larry Cobb, Billy!

What to do with the rest of this season....

vignette17 — Mon, 14 Jul 2008 01:31:51 -0000

After today’s loss puts us 6 back of a team that is better than us, however slightly, our 2008 season looks like one without the chance of playoffs. So now it’s time to think to the future and to plan our moves this year to most benefit our future success. Trade-wise, I won’t propose any specific deals, as I know people hate trade diaries.

However, I would think Street (and Embree/Foulke if they had any value) will be dealt, but a couple of these shaky outings may be enough to throw off some suitors. Maybe this rumored Street+Murton to the Rays develops but I don’t remember the last time a rumor about an A’s player lasted this long and then he was traded to that team. A shocking bullpen arm that could be traded is Ziggy because there were slight rumors according to Rotoworld (probably made up by them) about Casilla, Brown, and Devine when they were doing incredible and you hardly ever hear rumors that early in the season. Ziggy doesn’t have the same stuff as those three but he has all the performance. Plus the sadist in me could totally see Beane trading Ziggy.

Blanton could be dealt to a GM looking to buy low, but Beane’s price on even under-performing A’s is high (see the Devine/Kotsay trade). Another shocking name that wouldn't surprise me to see gone is Cust. Both the Mets and the DBacks are looking for LH-hitting OFers and Cust does have the teams' only >.800 OPS. Plus we have Sweeney, Buck (though he seems to be injured), CarGo, Cunningham, Murton, and Patterson (who hit another HR for Sac today) for next year's OF. If LA, would go for Crosby I would be stoked as well.

In my opinion, the immediate actions the A's should take are Brown should be DFA'd in favor of the aforementioned hot-hitting Patterson. Bankston should be called up after his 10 days in the minors in favor of Murphy. Murphy after more than 200 ABs with us has shown that he can't OBP .300 in the majors, despite his pretty good minors repertoire. He'd still be useful to have in AAA and if Lenny Dinardo passes through waivers I would think Donnie would too. We then could give Petit a couple of shots, but more than likely Crosby would get all the playing time, assuming he has no setbacks.

Even if Blanton/Duke doesn’t get traded I wouldn't be averse to seeing Gio get some starts in a six-man rotation following the break. With so few off-days, the SP may b less worn-down getting that extra day of rest. Plus Duke, Eveland, Smith, and Gallagher are all approaching career-highs or highs in the last couple of years in IP. Eveland pitched 130 innings two years ago but last year only pitched 38. Smith pitched 120ish last year and 150ish the year before and in 2005, his professional debut year he pitched 190ish (!). That's a lot of wear on that arm and it would be nice to give him a little less wear in a season that probably won't matter. Duke already hasn't pitched this many innings in a year since 2003. Gallagher threw 120ish innings last year and 165 the year before and hasn't reached 100 yet this year, so he may be fine in a more consistent role with us than he got with the Cubs. But why risk it? We might as well be cautious with our young arms this year and let Gio get some experience for next year at the same time. Plus, if you believe in hot streaks, Gio is certainly on one. I even could see us trying Braden, he of the low-4 FIP PT keeps bringing up and the 9.11K's/9 at AAA, especially if he brought out the mysterious screwball. He's in great danger of being passed in the depth chart.

The perfect candidate to replace Gio in Sacramento’s rotation is in Midland. James Simmons has performed well while at AA and it’s time for a call-up in my opinion. He’s pitching tonight and has done mediocre with 5.1 IP and 4 ER. To replace Simmons we could go with one of two options: Jose Garcia or re-calling up Futures Game star Henry Rodriguez and his 100 MPH heater. However, the A’s may be taking it slow with Rodriguez and letting him have success at a level at a young age after promoting aggressively and it backfiring, similar to what happened to Matthew Sulentic. Garcia is also coming back after TJS, so they may want to take it slow with him and leave him in the bullpen. But, they can’t wait too long as the longer he’s at an AA bullpen the more quickly he loses any prospect status. Another player who might consider returning to the rotation is Jared Lansford, but considering how many SP prospects we have, he may have a better chance reaching the majors as a reliever.

And since our minor league system seems bereft of middle infield talent, I vote now is the time we aggressively promote what little we do have (It did work, to the extent someone could have plausibly hoped, with Pennington). Both Larry Cobb and Michael Richard are destroying Kane County to the tune of a .865 and a .822 OPS respectively. I say destroy because recently called-up Corey Brown only had a .842 OPS and he is probably our third best OF prospect behind Cunningham and Sulentic, though that may be more speaking to our system than his talent. However, both Cobb and Richard are both old for low A (both 23) and need to be tested at a higher level or lose their semi-prospect status. An already struggling Kane County would lose its two best hitters however.

Of course if you’re calling up someone, someone will lose PT. In Cobb and Richard’s cases it’s going to be Carlos Arrieche and 2003 1st round pick and bust Brian Snyder. The current middle infield in Stockton is Frank Martinez and Josh Horton and both have underachieved to sub .750 OPSes in the hitter friendly Cal League. Martinez can also play 3b, although Arrieche is the team’s listed 3b. Arrieche however has gotten very sporadic PT and should be sent down to KC. Horton has gotten on base at a good .370 clip but his sub-.350 slugging is ugly. However, he was a 2nd round pick. He could get aggressively promoted to AA Midland and supplant their 2b the aforementioned Snyder. The SS for Midland is Justin Sellers, and if the A’s like Horton’s SS defense, Sellers has played 2b when he was a teammate of Pennington.

The other candidate for a promotion is Horton’s teammate and top prospect Chris Carter and his .930ish OPS. However, unless made in conjunction with a Bankston callup (and no Barton demotion) or Carter has a really good ability to play 3b or RF instead of merely low minor spot starts, a player who is performing well would have to be cut: Tommy Everidge. While not really a prospect at 25, he’s OPSing near .800 and is a local boy out of Santa Rosa. If Bankston were called up, Everidge could also be promoted and fill Bankston’s spot.

And on one last minor’s note: does anyone know why T-Buck and Jesus Guzman haven’t played at all recently in Sacramento?

A little optimism OR what to do with Crosby, Milton, and Harden

vignette17 — Mon, 16 Apr 2007 07:45:55 -0000

Despite the most dramatic win in a long time people are still pessimistic about three things: our fragile CF, SS, and SP.

Let’s deal with the non-health (aka easiest) issue first. Everyone is justifying believing in Scutaro because they were looking at his process rather than his results. He was hitting line drives ball over the place; it was only a matter of time before they fell. I think Croz's process has been better than I've seen since June '05. He has been attempting and hitting the ball much more to the opposite field than in previous years.

So, I looked for some proof: Crosby’s hitting chart (click all) for the year. 9 of his 15 hits and outs at the Coliseum were to the opposite field. If you manipulate th hitting chart page, you see 4 of Crosby's 7 hits and outs at Safeco were to right. Those stats are a much higher percentage to right field than his previous years’ hitting charts(at least at my first glance). If Croz really is trying to hit to opposite field, he may be going through an adjustment period where process was/is not leading to results.

Of course, this is an absurdly small sample size but so is criticism of Croz based on his performance this season (namely his fielding, which has never been an issue in the past; and, hey, just look at Jeter so far). And if you want to be pessimistic, maybe BoCro is just behind on everything. But perhaps we are seeing Bobby starting to adjust.

Now on to health: from this article and from this article

Harden

"It was more a precautionary [decision] than anything," Geren said. "When he felt the tightness, we felt it was the right move to take him out. We'll see how he feels tomorrow."

...and the already much quoted...

"It's nothing serious," Harden said. "I definitely felt it, but I'm not real concerned."

Bradley

"We're shooting for Tuesday," A's manager Bob Geren said. "I talked with him [on Saturday], and he said he just a day or two away from coming back."

I just am seeing way to much negativity for a team that just hit a walkoff homerun against Mariano f'n Rivera. Though even in a optimistic diary our offense still sucks.

On an endnote: who’s the A’s highest OPS player? I’ll give you a hint: he’s got the highest slugging and the least GIDP on the team and yet Geren doesn’t pinch hit him for lefthanded Kielty! Free Melhuse now!

What if we could...?

vignette17 — Fri, 23 Feb 2007 00:03:26 -0000

Disclaimer: All of this is pure, idle speculation with impossibly little chance of ever happening. So if you're not a fan of made-up trades don't read it.

Zonis' diary the other day got me thinking: is there a way to limit (but not eliminate) our competitions in spring training and get someone who could really help us?

Obviously, our biggest hole is offense and our biggest strength our bullpen. I wish we could have gotten in on the Adam LaRoche deal, but that is old news. So the idea I came up was:

Adam Dunn and David Ross for
Jason Kendall, DJ, Kielty, TBuck and Street/Duke/Calero

At first I thought the deal favored us but the more I thought of it the more it made sense. First the monetary issue: according to Cot's, Dunn makes $10.5 mil in '07; Ross $1.6 mil; Kendall $8 mil (13 and $5mil comes from the Pirates); Kielty $2.1 mil; Duke and Calero a little more than 1 mil. The rest all make minimum. In other words, if we give the $5 mil for Kendall from PIT to CIN, then the trade is basically an even exchange of salaries.

Talent-wise we get two low average, high power, high OPS guys. However, if Beane feels he has found a market inefficiency in low K guys, he would have to break that trend. And that's an understatement. We gain two of the highest strikeout kings this side of Ryan Howard. Oh wait one sec, we get one this side of RH and one on the other side (Dunn had 194[!] to Howard's 181). Plus we limit our competition with the only real competition for one bullpen spot.

The Reds biggest need is a closer. Street, Duke, or Calero all could be the Reds' closer. The Reds also get a proven NL .300 hitter at catcher, their future replacement for Hatty, and also a LF for today and one for tomorrow. They trade one/two years of Dunn (he has a 13 mil option) and two+ of Ross for a good prospect and three years of a premium closer.

Any thoughts?

Poll

This trade ...

diary and diaries like this are stupid.

17 votes

favors the Reds.

29 votes

favors us.

2 votes

is even.

2 votes

50 votes | Poll has closed

A Free Agent Preview: My dreams

vignette17 — Sun, 15 Oct 2006 05:58:28 -0000

Before you read this (or more likely read a paragraph and then scroll to the comments, of which they'll probably be none) and ask me why I'd waste so much time, I'd like to say that I like, no I love, writing and reading about the A's. I'm sure many people on this site would agree wholeheartedly or why else would they/you be here? That's why I spent so much time on this writing. I did it to fill up this off-season, and get over our elimination; I did it for myself.

So what is it I decided to do? I looked at the immediate future of what our team could do in this six-month waiting period, six months of sheer boredom (I'll call this period school) until I get to see my A's again. I hope that the team I see next year will be able to go farther into October than the A's we just saw and that's hard to do. So, in what ways can we improve this team? How can we get those players who'll improve us?

The easiest answers to those two questions are through in-house promotions and through free agency (I'm not paying the players, so I can say this).

What spots do we have open for next year? We have four FA's this year. Z, Payton, Kennedy, and Thomas are the players we have to replace. That's a plus starter, a five hitter, a solid setup guy, and a forty homer hitter we had in '06. IMO, we can replace those four roles and more if we make the right moves. So, who's out there?

Let's start out with call-ups. What players in our system might have potential to be solid major-leaguers in the next year or two? I think our list to choose from is this: Dan Meyer, Shakespeare tragedy, Connor Robertson, Jerome Williams, Windsor, Komine, Kohn, Casilla, Flores, Mabeus, Barton, TBuck, Melillo, Baker, Braden and John Brown. Obviously we won't have 15 rookies on the team. Which few are the crème de la crème?

There are lots of pitchers, many of them bound to be journeymen on that list. In our pen, we obviously have a solid foundation for any callups to join in the Holy Trinity, aka Kiko Streetscherer. When it comes to bullpens, there are three things I believe. I'm of the opinion that the best way to build a bullpen is to get a bunch of minimum salary guys and have them Duke it out for their spots. Since we have a fantastic trio in our pen already, most of the other bullpen guys will not get major innings but rather the "Yabu" innings anyways. Why not experiment with young pitchers: every once in a while, a Gaudin emerges. Another belief of mine is that failed starters, or good starters who can't fit in one's rotation, can become great bullpen guys. My third belief is that competition brings out the best in everybody.

What's my solution? Have Flores, Robertson, and Shakespeare tragedy as favorites for any open bullpen spot (from Kennedy or from a trade), but allow all of the aforementioned minor league pitchers to compete for a job. As for the rotation, I state my views further down, but it's much the same: lots of competition with favorites as the overdogs (is that a word? If not, it should be) but not with guaranteed spots.

A for the hitters, I think Barton, TBuck, and Melillo are in our future plans, and so we should let them develop until they're fully ready in AAA, and not start the arby clock too early. Brown and Baker should try their hardest to get bench spots. As for Melhuse, I think we should trade him for some minor league depth; not only because his stats are spiraling downward, but also because if some other team will give him more PT, we owe him enough to give him that opportunity.

Now on to out-of-house solutions. To say this off-season's free agent pool is stacked would be the understatement of the, um, off-season. When I write this, the list of FA's I wouldn't be mad if we signed filled up a page in Word with a player per line. That's quite a few players to sort through, and that's why this is quite a long diary.

Note: I'm leaving out guys who I think have a snowball's chance in hell of not re-signing with the team they're on (Clemens, Biggio, Smoltz, Mo, Bernie) or of their option not being picked up (Dye, Mo, Posada, Schilling). I'm also not including international players such as Matsuzaka, as I am not well enough informed.

So to start us out, who is out there? And what do we know about the market? And how much money do we have to spend? Well, we know, or can find out by scrolling down, that there is an abundance of players available. The key is will this amazing amount of depth spur the market into being ridiculously overpriced or the exact opposite?

So, before we examine this year's crop, how much can we spend (not only money-wise but draft pick wise)? This year, we will have four free agents: Kennedy, Payton, Thomas, and Z. Z is obviously an A FA and the only question is whether we can re-sign or whether we resign him. I would strongly bet on the latter, and in that case, we will get our two compensatory picks. As for others, it's not so obvious. Kennedy may have pulled a '05 Eyre; I would imagine he would still be a B or C, but it's possible he's an A. Payton, like RicarJoe, I'm not sure about. He certainly did better than I expected on offense this year. Plenty of bad OFers make the list as A FA's so maybe Jay will qualify. As for Thomas, I'm pretty sure he will be an A FA. I also think Frank is the most likely to re-sign with us. I don't know how much loyalty he has to us; he has only been here one year. Will he again sign a small (5 mil + incentives a year for 2 years?) contract loaded with incentives to come back to the A's? (I know I'm asking a lot of questions, partly because there are always plenty of unknowns in the off-season). Hurt was not just a big part of our offense this year; he was our offense. Our priority signing should be him.

So, if all four of our FA's leave, and I think we will, and should, offer at least arby to all 4, that could mean as many as 9 first round draft picks if they sign with other teams! From what little I know of college and HS players, the 2007 draft is a much better year than this past one, which most experts considered weak. They also called our draft one of the worst for the draft, partially because we had no 1st rounder (though I hope Cahill will make them eat their words on that). I don't know the rules exactly on compensation picks if we lose an A FA at the same time as signing one, but I'm assuming we would just lose compensation picks that we gained. If that is the case, we could sign a couple of FA's and still keep plenty of first rounders.

No matter what class distinction these 4 FA's get at the end of the year, an interesting occurrence looks to be happening. Z, this year, made $8.5 mil; Thomas, $3.1 mil; Kennedy, $2.6 mil; and Payton, $4 mil. That's a total of $18.2 million free this off-season from those 4. Plus, in 2007, the Pirates will pay $5 mil of Kendall's $13 and therefore, there will be a decrease in how much we're paying him this year to next year by about $3 mil. Some, of course, of this money will go to in-house raises such as to Haren, Ellis, Bunnies and Harden as well as arby for Calero, Duke, and Bradley. If we don't re-sign Z, or Frank (and maybe if we re-sign him), we should still have some free money even with Wolff or Fisher upping the salary (which they could do). Which brings us back to who is available in our price range.

Let's start with relief pitchers. They are the group with the least depth available and the group we're in least need of. Therefore, I'm not going to spend much time on them aside from mentioning how I think the market will fare. The relief pitchers also give us an idea how other groups will spark the market as the RP year of FA depth was last off-season.

In the '05-'06 off-season, the abundance of relief pitchers seemed to incite many teams into overspending for them (mainly the Cubs and we saw how that worked out for them; I'm not saying Eyre and Howry spurred Chicago's funk just that they didn't propel them anywhere except the cellar). The relief pitcher market continued to be overvalued into the season itself. The Reds traded Lopez and Kearns for relievers (a trade which I still think was a great one, one of the best trades since AJ, for the Nats). So who is available this offseason? The big name FA RPs this offseason include: Chadford,
B Koch (former A's closer 1), K. Foulke* (former A's closer 2), A Rhodes (former A's closer 3), O Dot (former A's closer 4), Gagne*, Everyday Eddie, Baez, King, Kline, Percival, Timlin, and Wickman. The lone A reliever possibly leaving is Kennedy.

Who on that list would we want to sign and who will be within our price range? Certainly Eddie would be affordable coming off a bad year and he is a Bay Area product; he's also having surgery and will most likely not be offered arby. Also because of the surgery, he's a 2007 Dotel-type gamble. But, he is also the best FA fit to replace Kennedy (as I think we will let him go; a 1.5 WHIP, and an ERA < 1.5 do not mesh). Foulke or Percival might be reasonable gambles; both were dominant once and both have struggled with injuries and performance and so might come for cheap without suffering loss of draft picks. In any case, Foulke, Percival, nor Eddie, are worth more than two year reasonably cheap deals.

I think Gagne (if the Dodgers let him go), Baez, and Wickman (who I don't like anyway) are out of the range we should be willing to pay to make modest improvements on an already very good pen. As for Chadford, King, and Kline, I don't see space for them in our pen. For obvious reasons, Rhodes (nor Koch) couldn't come here. And I would be shocked if Timlin left Boston.

So what about the people who take us to the bullpen? The A's have been known throughout this six-year era of success as a team that relies on pitching, and as we found out this year, and the White Sox learned the previous, good pitching can take you far. And as everyone in baseball knows, a certain eccentric, surfing pitcher of ours, who has helped define this recent epoch, is a FA this year. And he chose to rehire the Devil himself. I would be very surprised if we could sign him to a contract that wouldn't become an albatross (What flavor is it?).

Luckily, there are plenty of other SPs available. A few include Schmidt, Pettite, Mulder (do we gamble?), Maddux, Glavine*, Buerhle*, Miller, Mussina, Wood*, and Lilly. Now instead of getting sucked into the massive bidding wars that are sure to follow Z, Schmidt, and Buerhle if the Sox don't pick up his option (possible if not likely), I suggest we try to sign some of the second-tier talent (which this off-season is still some damn fine players) before the market explodes. I say we should aggressively pursue Wood and Lilly and try to sign both for what the annual price it would take to sign Z (around 15 mil).

My idea is that one of the things that the market undervalues is depth. It is evidenced in some of the platoons across the league (take Broussard/Perez or the Red's catching: the latter which may break up this off-season). These platoons can put up some stats that rival superstars and because neither platoon-mate puts up the monster stats themselves that they put up together, it is possible to sign both for under the monetary value of their production. This is why we should get as much depth as possible to try to recoup the loss of Z. We can't afford the player who will put up those stats by himself, but we might be able to afford a multitude who could replace Z's value. We've already got a lot of lower level depth. We have four young guns who could fight for a rotation spot (Gaudin, Windsor, Komine, possibly Williams) and hopefully two southpaws to join them soon (Braden, Meyer). We have two reasonably cheap former starters who can fill in for injuries (Halsey, Saars). And we have three young pitchers and one vet already in the rotation (Harden, Haren, Loaiza, Cupcakes). What we don't have is any lefties or any #1 starters who are constantly healthy. Lilly and Wood could help fill those holes, of course, but there are also two starters who I've been harping on about. They are both coming off mediocre seasons and we might be able to trade for them with bullpen pieces as both teams have mediocre pens. They are Oliver Perez (watch Kendall work wonders on him again) and K machine Doug Davis.

My dream is this: have all of them compete for rotation spots and non-holy trinity bullpen spots and watch a plus starting rotation emerge. Plus, Wood and Harden can injure themselves and we can replace them easily. We also would have chips to trade should we need them later in the off-season or midseason.

While both the SP and the RP FA crops are deep, the hitters put them to shame. And guess what our biggest weakness was this year? A coincidence? The biggest names are Soriano, Lee, Lugo, Floyd, and Huff. But there are also a few slightly worse but still good hitters available: our own Thomas, Nomah, Zaun, Nixon, Torii, Hillenbrand, Millar, Stairs, Dmitri, Loretta, Wilson, Edmonds*, L. Gonzalez, J. Guillen, JayPay, R. White, G. Sheffield*, Bonds, Burnitz*, Cameron*, Lofton, and Preston Wilson. Our priority should, of course, be our best hitter this season, but there is one name I think we should seriously consider.

I will get grilled for this, which is why I waited until all of you are asleep before mentioning this idea. I think we should try to sign Bonds if he will cost less than $12 mil. Now before you boo me offstage, think about it. We are a team in a two-team market in which the other team has more fans, more money, and a better stadium. What is a better way to convert bandwagon fans and get more people to the stadium than getting the second all time home run hitter who has controversy surrounding him and uniting two certain hall-of-famers both as close to records as a season? Bonds would more than pay for his salary in jerseys and attendance. Plus, he needs to come to the AL. He shares the DH spot with Thomas but plays in left most of the time. He plays bad defense but we have other defenders to make up for it. He is a clubhouse cancer but if there's any clubhouse Bonds could fit into it's the A's. Bonds is also in the only market that still applauds him and by coming to us, he comes to fans, especially the bandwagoners, who already accept him. And most importantly, he brings his walks with him. And because of all his faults, he could come for less money than his performance merits.

To recap, I've suggested we sign 5 FA's: Thomas, Bonds, Wood, Lilly, and Eddie. Together, they might cost as much as $30 mil, but we free up around $15 mil this next year. We could also try to trade away some of our bigger contracts to teams that could afford it. How about Loaiza and bullpen pieces to the Mets for Oliver + others? Wolff may also want to show to A's fans that he's willing to spend a bit and this hypothetical spending spree would certainly convert more bandwagon fans to join our cause. If these moves could lead to a ring, and we were damn close this year, I think it would pay off, for me (which is of course the whole reason we should do this), and for Fish and Wolf.

Author's note: I do not expect all, or even any, of my ideas in this diary to be realistic. They are merely my dreams. I tried to keep them on the verge of being possible (as close to reality as my dreams can go) and I also tried to give a preview of who's available this off-season who I thought could possibly help us. You can post your own thoughts on who you think we should sign. And if you read this diary through, you have a much better attention span than me!

Here's my dream team:
Lineup :
Kendall
MB
Bonds
Thomas
Chavvy
Swish
Kots
Croz
Ellis

Rotation :
Harden
Wood
Haren
Davis (I don't know how he got here; let's say the Brewers DFA'd him or we traded Halsey and a PTBNL. It is after all, a dream team)
Lilly

Bullpen :
Street
Calero
Duke
Blanton
Oliver Perez (traded Loaiza, Saarloos, Komine for Oliver and minor leaguers)
Eddie
Gaudin (at first injury, he joins rotation)

Bench :
Melillo
Brown
Kielty

In AAA ready to come up :
Halsey
Windsor
Braden
Meyer
TBuck
Barton
McBeth
Robertson

For the complete list of this year FAs (and the site I used for contract info):
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2000/04/possible-free-agents.html

Other Notes:
Teams with money freeing up and hence our competitors:
TOR
SF
OAK
The usual big spenders

Star/Once star players with off years and hence guys who we might be able to acquire for below market price:
Oliver Perez
Madson
Peralta
Gomes
Ensberg
Drew
Cantu
Kent (I hate him but he didn't have that bad a season just not that many HR's)
M. Giles
R. Sexson
A. Rod (trouble in the Bronx, could we capitalize?)
Chavvy (Oh, wait a sec)

Players to look for next year who might be flukes or the real thing:
Reed Johnson (.900+ OPS)
J. Crede
B. Hall
Thames
Adam LaRoche
F. Sanchez
DeRosa
B. Hawpe
M. Teahen

*Player or team option

P.P.S. I haven't read the recent diaries so some of these issues may be addressed. I just felt this was slightly too long for a comment.

Poll

Which would be the best (use your own criteria) pickup for the A's (not including Zito or Thomas)?

None of the above; try to get one star player like A-Rod or, hopefully, Miggy

14 votes

To sign Barry Bonds

9 votes

I didn't read this thing; but we should let go of a certain gum chewer

4 votes

To sign Eddie Guadardo

0 votes

To trade for Doug Davis

7 votes

To sign Kerry Wood

12 votes

To trade for Oliver Perez

7 votes

To sign Ted Lilly

14 votes

67 votes | Poll has closed