Phil Steele's college football preview came out last week.  I think he does the best work of any of the college football previews.  You can find his website at philsteele.com.

Phil had the following to say about the upcoming season, "While UW had the worst record in the Pac-10 , they were not really the wort team as their -170.6 yards per game was 102.1 ypg better than WSU.  There are plenty of positives heading into '09.  UW had 3 net close losses, was -17 in TO's,  had horrible yards per point on both offense and defense and was #2 in the FBS in starts lost to injury (50).  It appears that Steve Sarkisian is going to look like a genius in his first year.  While UW did not make my Most Improved List (teams I expect to go from losing records to bowl eligibility), it was mostly due to their schedule (#16) as they draw LSU and ND in non-conf games but Washington is arguably the Most Improved Team in the country."

Phil projects UW to have -40 yards per game this year a huge improvement over the -170.6 from last season.  With a little luck a -40 ypg team can end up with the 6 wins necessary to go bowling.  I wanted to share a little positive with you guys considering the recruiting bummers of the past week.  If Steele's projections for the upcoming season are accurate I am confident Sark will bring in an outstanding class next year and the disappointments of this last week will be long forgotten.

I've read quite a bit on how to statistically analyze baseball and found the subject matter quite interesting.  I'm ignorant of similar techniques for football and would like to find some reading material on the subject.  What books or articles would you recommend that I read? 

I'd be especially interested to get score or first down expectancy information, similar to win expectancy in baseball, if this research exists.  For example, a random team has the ball, 2nd down 7 yards to go, on its own 30 yard line.  What is the probability this team gets a first down and what is this team's point expectation in this situation?  Thanks in advance for any recommendations.