He's not walking through the LF door anymore.

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But, what a great past couple of weeks, eh?

Most everyone seems to agree that LF is the next position of most need. Bubbafan clearly elaborated upon this in a fanpost just a few days ago. I agree that many folks (especially Walt and Dusty) aren't that comfortable letting Heisey/Frazier/Phipps begin the season as the starting LFer. Just imagine how sticky it could get if Stubbs continues his woes this spring, thereby pushing Heisey into CF.

Having Heisey as the 4th OFer allows for a more versatile team, still leaving the possibility for Heisey to take over a starting role by mid-season. There's no reason to hand over the reigns quite so easily, especially when there are viable options still left on the shelf.

So with the aforementioned assumed; How do folks rank the possible FA LFs left for the picking?

How about everyone's top-5 for Walt to consider?

Personally, I'd rank the options:

1. J.D. Drew (Lance Berkman type comeback?)

2. Johnny Damon (might look pretty good hitting between Phillips and Votto)

3. Kosuke Fukudome (a platoon with Heisey could be quite impressive)

4. Ryan Ludwick (a Walt-like discount-rate might suffice)

5. Cody Ross (not much of a fan, but he's not past his prime)

honorable mentions (Rick Ankiel, Raul Ibanez, Carlos Guillen, Brad Hawpe, Xavier Nady)

So, who do you got?

I happened to catch the music collaborative, The Baseball Project, at the Dodger-Sox game today at Camelback Ranch in Phoenix/Glendale. 

It looks like they will be playing before the Reds' game on Sunday at Goodyear.  It was great to hear some live music before the game today, plus I got to talk to Peter Buck in a very relaxed setting.  I've been a huge fan of his since "Murmur", so this was a pretty big deal for me.

On Sunday, they will likely be playing at the gate and selling some CDs and shirts with plenty of autographs.  Just a great, great reason to head to Goodyear on Sunday if you are so inclined and within close proximity.

The Baseball Project "Past Time"@ Euclid Records (via jeffwpope)

(the Lefty/Righty split is the cure....giggidy!!) via a.imageshack.us

The trade deadline has come and gone and a lot of Reds’ fans are left wondering; Does this line-up have the offense to keep up with St. Louis?  The Reds offense still leads the league in total runs scored and O.P.S., but little of that production can be attributed to the outfielders.  Every OF position is near the bottom of the league in O.P.S., mostly due to struggling production from the young starters in RF and CF (Bruce and Stubbs).  However, the regressing Jonny Gomes and feeble bench hasn’t helped much either.  Thankfully, Drew Stubbs and Jay Bruce are elite defenders, but the offensive quagmire is extremely deep and thick right now.  It seems many folks feel that Walt may have missed a chance to address a pressing need at the deadline.

Personally, I’m on Walt’s side of thinking right now, and don’t think/feel that the 2010 version of the Reds needs to look outside the organization for outfield production.  I’m much more inclined to use the ‘in-house’ options (a la, Chris Heisey), albeit with two big caveats: 1.  that Walt puts the best rotation on the roster, and 2. that Dusty utilizes the players to their strengths, while limiting a player’s exposure to their weakness.  

In particular to the second point, I would like to see the roster optimized for the offensive splits generated from a hitter facing his preferred pitching arm.  Inasmuch, a lefty hitter generally hits better against a right-handed hurler, the Reds have options that could optimize a line-up based on a theory that ‘opposites attract’. 

Below the jump, I put together a few graphs of offensive production of the possible near-term solutions in the outfield from players currently within the system.  The graphs are career numbers for minor league production and major league production (as noted) up to August 1 of this year.  I also included a graph of the 2010 production for 4 minor leaguers. 

I’d like for folks to peruse the graphs and come to their own conclusions based on the numbers.  I have my own opinion on what to do, but I’d like to hear from you.  What say you Reds fans; What do you do with the outfield going forward?

Continue reading this post »

The Reds got lucky the second week into the season.  I'm not referring to the early series comeback wins with the Marlins, rather the surprise retention of Wladimir Balentien.  Balentien was put on waivers just before the final rosters were set, but just 10-days since he managed to clear every other team's general-manager from being claimed.  Fortunately for the Reds, Balentien is heading back to AAA-Louisville with another chance to prove he belongs on the major-league roster. 

Balentien hasn't really shown much at the major league level up to this point in his career, but the potential for a legit power-hitting corner-outfielder is still there.  Some will argue that Balentien's clearance through waivers implies that he is not major league material worthy of a roster spot.  Heck, Walt Jocketty decided to go with Miguel Cairo and Laynce Nix over Balentien when finalizing the 40-man roster.  Furthermore, we know not of Balentien's interpersonal relationships within major league's inner circle, which could ultimately be the main reason why he was left unclaimed.  We may never know for sure, but I prefer to believe Balentien's roster omission was an educated gambit by Walt Jocketty, and that Balentien is still in favor with the club where his potential may be fully realized.  Although each aforementioned are valid arguments against Balentien and validate responses of ‘who cares about the 40th man on any roster?', the arbiters of such notions would be wise to reflect upon the career trajectory of other late-blooming power hitters currently finding success in MLB.

Continue reading this post »

via assets.espn.go.com

Johnny Cueto is about to make bank.  It seems like just yesterday Cueto hurled a dominating spring training, which landed him a spot on the five-man rotation.  However, the fact is, Cueto has put together two full seasons and is on his way to another in 2010.  This will likely happen in spite of Dusty Baker's handling, but I digress.  Anyways, Cueto's production (which can be stellar at times, but utterly frustrating during others) is something that will cost the Reds beyond league minimum in the upcoming years.

Just last week, the Brewers signed phenom hurler Yovani Gallardo to a hefty extension even though he has yet to hurl as many innings as Cueto.  The Brewers realize that they have a gem in Gallardo and decided to offer a contract to avoid offseason wrangling in arbitration hearings, while also buying out the first years of his free agency.  Although they are similar in age, Gallardo has proven more effective than Cueto thus far, but how much so?  What is the discrepancy worth?  Most importantly, how much should Walt Jocketty and the Reds' brass offer Cueto in the near future? 

Within the table (stats acquired from FanGraphs.com as of April 10, 2010), measures of productivity and contract information are tallied for Gallardo, Cueto, and John Danks of the Chicago White Sox.  Danks' production might be more comparable to Cueto's, although a year advanced.  Danks distinguishs himself from Gallardo by the difference in their contract extension; the White Sox decided to offer a one-year contract to Danks before his first arbitration hearing.  A long-term contract for Danks may be forth-coming, but his current contract does show a different strategy for dealing with young hurlers who are reaching their first years of arbitration.  Perhaps the Brewers should have waited out another year before signing Gallardo, or perhaps the White Sox will regret not offering a long-term contract to Danks sooner.

Personally, I would like to see the Reds be pro-active with the current youth-core of the team (Cueto, Votto, Bruce, and Bailey).  I think it's way too early to consider Bruce or Bailey for extensions, but the time is now for Cueto and Votto.  Votto's extension is of paramount importance, but I'd like to think Cueto's is an important part of a winning franchise going forward.  I'm not sure Cueto is quite the pitcher as either Gallardo or Danks, but I think their contracts provide a template for Cueto's future contract.

Rather than write further of what I would do in the GM's chair, I'd like to hear from the rest of the community:  What do you want Jocketty to do with Cueto?  When should the deal go down?  and, How much is Cueto worth going forward?