The Warriors are in midst of another season where we are headed to another high lottery pick.  Nothing new here, but what do we do to fix the problem?  Making 1 trade or firing our coach won't make us an elite Western Conference team. We need to establish a long term plan.  2011-2012, that season should be our end game.  We are not going to the playoffs this season, and odds are that we won't make it next season either.  Let's start formulating a plan to make to the playoffs in the near future and a plan to stay there.  Plan of Attack:

This Season

-Trade Corey Maggette

Sounds impossible, right?  It just depends what we are asking for.  A combination of Maggette and expiring contracts for 2011 expiring contracts could be enticing to many teams especially if we agree to take back worthless players.  Examples

-Maggette and expiring contracts for Eddie Curry and Jared Jeffries, and possibly Wilson Chandler. 

-Maggette and expiring contracts for Michael Redd.

-Maggette and expiring contracts for Peja Stojakovich

The idea is if we are asking for no talent back, and contracts that don't expire till the end of next season and offering those teams salary relief at the end of this season, it might not be as hard to move him as thought possible.

-Trade CJ Watson

If we offer expiring contracts plus CJ Watson and be willing to take back contracts that don't expire till 2011, getting a late first rounder will be simple, we might be able to score additional first or second round draft picks.

Off Season

-Seek replacements for Nellie and his entourage

Nellie is a great coach and he is going to be gone after the 2010-2011 season at the latest.  If there is a better coach available at the time, pick him up.  If not a suitable candidate is available, simple wait till the end of the following season.  When Nellie leaves, it's time for Riley and Smart and the rest of the Nellie regime to leave as well.  The general manager position would have to be filled to, so start looking for candidates either this offseason or next.

-Draft the best player available

Take the player that has the most overall talent available and worry about fitting our pieces together.  It's time to take the risky high potential players.

-Give Anthony Morrow the QO

By giving Anthony Morrow the QO, he would still be a restricted free agent at the end of the 2011 season with a cap hold of fewer than 2 million dollars.  If a team signs him to an offer sheet, we will have to match it, but hopefully we can skate by with keeping him on the books for cheap at the moment.  In the 2011 summer, we can sign him to a long term lucrative deal after exhausting our cap space.

-Don't use the Mid-Level or Bi-Annual exception to sign a long term deal

Save our cap space for the following summer.  Fill out the roster with veterans at the minimum and D-Leaguers.  Use the MLE only if a player is willing to sign for only 1 season.

-Try to trade Monta Ellis

In the much hyped 2010 free agent ‘bonanza' there will be many teams that walk away empty handed.  If any of those teams want to grab Ellis for expiring contracts and draft picks, it might be the perfect opportunity to sell while Ellis's stock is at its highest.

Next Season

-Trade Vladimir Radmanovic, Ronny Turiaf, Brandan Wright, and Kelenna Azibuike

Trade these guys during the season to any contenders that want some help.  Pick up expiring contracts and draft picks.  If unsuccessful at trading them, they will come off the books at the end of the season. Radmanovic can have some value as a backup wing player.  Turiaf is signed for the following season at a little over 4 million (PO) but that's not an overpay for a quality backup big man. Wright would still only be 22 and any team that picks him would have him as a restricted free agent at the end of that season.  There might be a few teams that would give an end of the first round pick for Wright.  Azibuike can net us a late first rounder as an expiring contract and as a solid swing man.

2011 Off Season

We would hopefully have a couple of draft picks in this draft; ours would almost definitely be a lottery pick.  By the time free agency comes around we would have only the following number on the books: Biedrins, Curry, Randolph, and Morrows QO number, along with 2 or so draft picks form the 2010 draft, and 2 or so draft picks from the 2011 draft.  2011 free agent class will not be as stocked as the 2010 free agency class, but there will be several young good players to add to our young nucleus, especially if we are one of the few teams that have the salary cap space available to make a run at these players.

Will this happen, probably not.  Rob Rowell and Chris Cohan don't have the desire to see a loss at the gate for a better future, and they both definitely don't have the clout to ask the Warrior fans to be patient.  While Nellie and Riley speak a good game when talking about preparing the team for the future, I find it hard to see Nellie embrace a complete rebuilding project his last 2 seasons as a coach.  But since the Warriors are only a successful team in my imagination land, here is my scenario to fix the Warriors in an imaginary scenario where I the Warriors both wanted to be a successful franchise and was consulting me on how to do it.

This season looks very bleak.  The near future of this franchise looks very bleak.  The generally friendly bay area media and the east coast sports biased do their best to keep the absolute dysfunction and debauchery of the Golden State Warriors off the top headlines (being ridiculously unsuccessful the last 15 years helps as well) on ESPN and other sports related news outlets, but most of us stubbornly hardcore Warrior fans either know the truth or pretend we don’t know the truth. 

I am a die hard 25 year old pessimistic Warriors fan that has very little faith in this current assemblage of players and even less faith in the front office.  If you are a fan that still believes that we can make a serious run at the 8th seed (and that would be worth it) or that our youth movement is on the right track this time around, I implore you to stop reading at this point.

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The entire summer buzz has been about Anthony Randolph destroying the Summer League competition and subsequently getting to try out with Team USA.

Are we forgetting about are BEST player and the player that represented the Warriors in the USA Select team last?

Monta Ellis had a horrible year last year on and off the court.  Destroying his ankle on a moped Monta Ellis destroyed his opportunity of becoming our point guard and our team leader.  Most of the news and articles about Ellis last year were about his off court drama, from the moped injury to the Rowell versus Ellis in the contract voiding issue, and Nelson versus Ellis on whether he was a point guard or not.  Last year was a major step back for Ellis and this franchise.

However this summer there has been very little buzz about our franchise player, our 66 million dollar man.  Lest take a look back at Monta Ellis and how he became our franchise player

Monta Ellis was the Most Improved Player in 06-07 as a 20 year old.  Monta became one of premier players the following season, including a nutcase February where he shot over 60% from the field.   Monta Ellis did return to court last season and did alright, considering the fact that he was recovering from a major ankle surgery and he hadn’t had a chance to go to go thru a training camp.

However those stats don’t do justice to how much Monta Ellis recovered.  Ellis came back and played 13 games and did ok, but didn’t show his usual explosion.  It is important to point out that the Warriors did go 7-6 and were playing better basketball at the time.  Ellis shut it down for about 3 weeks and came back looking like the Monta Ellis that we are used to seeing.  Here were Ellis’s stats for the last 11 games he played last season.

One thing Monta Ellis is known for his is his renowned work ethic.  If his speed is back to 100% and he has been working on his passing skills and his defense, Monta Ellis might finally be ready to take that step to superstardom and lead our team to the post season.  Is this overly optimistic? Probably.  However let’s not forget about our best player and franchise player. 

The chatter from Team R/R (Riley and Rowell) during their press conferences and conference call was that anything less than making the playoffs would be a disappointment and that with a healthy team and an addition or 2 would be a playoff team.  While we can all understand why Team R/R would want to go all out and make a desperate grab for the 8th seed (seeing how the fan base reacted after our last brief playoff appearance and the debacle that was the 08-09 season both on and off the court) is that the best plan for the franchise?

-Problem, we won 29 games last year.   What can we expect from the youngsters?   A healthy Monta Ellis will obviously help the most.  A healthy prepared combination of Wright/Randolph can solidify the 4 position.  We also have a stable of under 25 players (Biedrins, Turiaf, Morrow, Belinelli, Azibuike and possibly Kurz, Davidson, and Watson if they are brought back) but can we really expect giant improvement from any of those guys.  Not sure that even with a trade where we give up some youngsters and try to upgrade with a proven veteran would make us a team that can compete for the playoffs.

If that’s the plan where do we go?  The obvious move would be trying to move Belinelli and Wright along with either Maggette or Crawford for an upgrade at some position.  What can we get for that, in this economy and the possible mega 2010 free agent class, teams might be wary on taking back a contract like Maggette or Crawford.  But there are a lot of possibilities, with a plethora of young players and the 7th pick of the draft there are several possibilities.

When you’re a 29 win team you should obviously be blowing up the phones seeing what type of options are out there, maybe the best plan is just to wait it out.  We have a couple of really good looking young players (Ellis and Biedrins) and a bunch of other young players that can possibly be really good players (Azibuike, Wright, Morrow, Belinelli, and definitely Randolph).  Quick fixes don’t work very often; maybe it’s time to accept the fact that we are not a playoff team.  Let the young players develop, find out who can really be an impact player in the NBA, and look to shop either Maggette or Crawford (with some young players) for some expiring contracts.  Taking a step back for the next year or 2, might actually make us a really good young team 3 years from now with a decent amount of cap space (see Portland and New Orleans; soon Minnesota and Oklahoma City).  It probably won’t be the most popular idea, but it might be the best idea if we want to become a franchise that can compete deep in the playoffs one day.

At ESPN.com, on their Saturday Dime, it says that the Warriors are expected to make another huge push at Chris Bosh:

There have been no firm indications yet about the Raptors' willingness to entertain trade offers for Chris Bosh this offseason, but plugged-in sources say it's a lock that the Warriors will try again to make a Bosh pitch at the next opportunity after the Raptors rebuffed every inquiry (including Golden State's) for the lefty Olympian before the Feb. 19 trading deadline….should the Raps decide that it's easier to try to start over rather than try again to assemble a team that's successful enough next season to convince Bosh to stay in Canada as opposed to leaving as a free agent in the summer of 2010.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/dailydime?page=dime-090328-29

So who should we give up Monta Ellis or Andris Biedrins?  I know most of you are thinking, not this again but with Ellis’s return to prominence its worth looking at the argument again. Likely in the trade Toronto would like to shed the salaries of either Jason Kapono or Marcus Banks.  Kapono is a better player with a slightly worse contract.  To balance the rest of the deal, hopefully a package of Marco Belinelli, Corey Maggette, and either Anthony Randolph or Brandan Wright (we’ll have the debate again later) will work for both parties.

The Case to Keep Ellis

Ellis is back.  Shooting at over a 50% clip and moving smoothly on the court.  While it’s possible the ankle was bothering him when he first came back its more likely he was rusty and needed to work his way back into game shape.  With an Ellis and Bosh tandem, we have the makings of a potential All Star combo.  Ellis is never going to be that guy that can lead his team deep into the playoffs, but playing second banana to a perennial All Star might be his role on a contender.  Bosh has played center for a good portion of the year, and it might not be necessary to keep Biedrins around.  Biedrins is a steady player but by no means is he a star or have star potential like Ellis does.  Traditional NBA logic will tell you the key to building a contender is having an inside/outside combination.  With Jackson, Morrow, Turiaf, Azibuike, and either Wright or Randolph, this team might just be a role player or 2 from being a major factor in the west.

The Case to Keep Biedrins

Ellis is back.  While we are all excited about that, let’s not forget the gaping holes in Monta Ellis’ game.  Ellis will never be confused with Steve Nash in running a team’s offense.  At this point there are concerns if Ellis can even masquerade as a point guard.  His Ast/To ratio is horrid.  His major second deficiency is defense.  If anybody watched the San Antonio game on league pass, Sean Elliot was almost laughing at how easily Tony Parker was blowing by Ellis.  Ellis doesn’t have the size to cover 2 guards so for Ellis to work on a contender; he would almost have to be paired up with a bigger point guard or an off guard who can share the point guard duties.   While in Biedrins we have a rare commodity, a center that rarely gets hurt, and can give you a solid 15-12 every night on the floor with one of the league’s highest field goal %.  With Biedrins, Bosh, Turiaf, and either Wright or Randolph we would have one of the most dominating front courts for years to come.  Wing men are easier to find and replace in this league than centers.  Since Ellis is not a point guard our best bet might be to look to free agency (Bay Area native Jason Kidd?) or the draft for a true point guard to run this team.

Hi guys,

I am from Golden State of Mind.  In the Bay Area press and all over the Warriors blog, we are refered to as the youngest team in the NBA, which we are by definition at 24.1 years.  But I decided to weight age against playing time instead of just taking a raw average age.  I compared the Warriors to the Portland Trail Blazers, Memphis Grizzlies, MinnesotaTimber Wolves, and The OKC Thunder.

Here are the results

Here is the link to the full post at GSOM

http://www.goldenstateofmind.com/2009/2/23/769226/are-we-the-youngest-team-i

Let me know what you guys think.

Hi guys,

I am from Golden State of Mind.  In the Bay Area press and all over the Warriors blog, we are refered to as the youngest team in the NBA, which we are by definition at 24.1 years.  But I decided to weight age against playing time instead of just taking a raw average age.  I compared the Warriors to the Portland Trail Blazers, Memphis Grizzlies, MinnesotaTimber Wolves, and The OKC Thunder.

Here are the results

Here is the link to the full post at GSOM

http://www.goldenstateofmind.com/2009/2/23/769226/are-we-the-youngest-team-i

Let me know what you guys think.

Hi guys,

I am from Golden State of Mind.  In the Bay Area press and all over the Warriors blog, we are refered to as the youngest team in the NBA, which we are by definition at 24.1 years.  But I decided to weight age against playing time instead of just taking a raw average age.  I compared the Warriors to the Portland Trail Blazers, Memphis Grizzlies, MinnesotaTimber Wolves, and The OKC Thunder.

Here are the results

Here is the link to the full post at GSOM

http://www.goldenstateofmind.com/2009/2/23/769226/are-we-the-youngest-team-i

Let me know what you guys think.

It is not your beloved Golden State Warriors.  After doing some extensive math work, I devised a new stat that I call 'Actual Playin Age'(I know, not that clever).  It is a much better way to mesure the age of team than raw age average.  I decided to compare the Warriors to 4 other Western Conference teams:  the Memphis Grizzlies, the Portland Trail Blazers, the Minnesota Timber Wolves, and the Oklahoma City Thunder to see where we stood.

When taking a look at the stats you can see that not only are we not the youngest team, but we are not even built as a young rebuilding and up and coming team.  Observations on the other teams

Thunder's top 3 players in minutes played are Kevin Durant, Jeff Green, and Russell Westbrook.  3 young guys they want to build there future around. The rest of the guys are supporting cast are veteran players and a few young role players to fill out the bench.  Building around those 3, they can change the other parts as they get ready to make push in the West.

Grizzlies's have played their rookie OJ Mayo more than they have played anybody else.  Followed closely by Rudy Gay.  Both of those guys are potential future All-Stars.  The next 5 guys that play are also very young players.  Marc Gasol, Mike Conley, Hakim Warrick, Kyle Lowry, and Darrell Arthur.   The end of the bench is filled by veterans, in effect the exact oppostie of how the Warriors are constucted.

Timber Wolves's have Randy Foye and Al Jefferson, that is there future along with Kevin Love and Corey Brewer.  Corey Brewer is out of the season, and the Timber Wolves are bringing along Kevin Love slowly and seeing if Ryan Gomes and Sebastian Telfair can make it as solid NBA players.  The rest of the bench is filled with veterans and young a couple of young NBA hopefuls with Rodney Carney and Craig Smith.

Trail Blazers's are already an elite Western Confernce team. LaMarcus Aldridge and All-Star Brandon Roy are the team captains and lead the team in minutes.  In fact other than veteran point guard Steve Blake and ridiculuos rebounding machine center Joel Przybilla, all their roatational players 25 or under.

The difference from those teams and the Warriors is that they have a plan and we do not.  Maybe for the TWolves, Thunder, and Grizzlies it doesnt work out, but they are trying something and sticking to it.

What is the Warriors plan?  If everything works out and we might get to fight for the 8th seed and a 1 and done in the playoffs the next 2 -3 years?  It is nice to know that that is our BEST case scenario for our team.

On the tables below, pct refers to what percent of total playing time that player has played for the team.  For the Warriors, pct A factors in Demarcus Nelson and Al Harrington, and pct B does not.  We are still a very young team, but maybe not as young as you would like to think.  Actual Playing Age is a much better way to represent the team's average age than just the average age of the players of the team.

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