http://twitter.com/#!/McClain_on_NFL/statuses/65975027224420352

McClain says that Phillips will use Mario as the weakside OLB, which if we've taken anything from his defenses with Ware in Dallas, means he'll be a stand up DE moving all around the line. I just can't wait for that first time when a TE ends up staring down a charging Mario one on one.

Guess this means Antonio and JJ are starting and Barwin/Reed are competing for the SOLB spot.

Five days have passed since Frank Wren brought Adam LaRoche back to the Braves and it seems like everyone has shared their evaluation of the deal (mostly negative and/or confused), so here goes another one. My post doesn’t focus on LaRoche’s value down the stretch or the absence of Kotchman for the two seasons after LaRoche presumably leaves Atlanta via free agency. What I am looking at is the value of not having Kotchman (or LaRoche for that matter) for those two years. The scenario I’m using is dependent on a couple things (that very well may not happen), so take this as more of a what-if than breaking down what is decidedly going to happen.

Casey Kotchman was always rather unimportant in the grand scheme of things; that much should come as no surprise. He was merely an affordable and productive enough way to bridge the gap to Freddie Freeman and a lot of my opinion on the matter is based upon our future first baseman’s ETA. The general consensus (at least from the more vocal ones at Talking Chop) seems to be a call-up at some point during the 2010 season. I think anything other than a cup of coffee in September is a pretty unreasonable expectation though. He’s been sort of a package deal with Jason Heyward since the two were drafted in 2007 with both being promoted at essentially the same rate, but a major league promotion will almost certainly not be the same. We’re already talking about Heyward being called up as a 20-year old – something that is incredibly rare -- but he’s polished enough and at a physical maturity level where it would probably work. Freeman on the other hand seems to lack the polish (as evidenced by his .725 OPS in AA) or physical maturity to be a viable option as a major league regular before 2011, at which point he’ll be 21 (still very young).

Even if you don’t agree with my Freddie Freeman timeline, it doesn’t necessarily mean you’ll disagree with the entire post. Financially, this deal makes sense for the Braves even if he’s ready at some point next season and makes more sense if he takes longer than that. Going into this season, Kotchman’s contract status was a major plus since he’s making a little under $3 million, but that price will go up. It was fine to get mediocre production for that amount, but if he makes $4.5 million and $6.5 million (very reasonably estimates) over his final two arbitration-eligible years, would he still have been worth it? To answer that question, we have to account for what a replacement could do and the one player I’ll focus on is Martin Prado.

I know some of you are already cracking your knuckles in preparation of some response about how Prado’s bat doesn’t play at first, but before you write, does Kotchman’s bat play there? If we’re basing next year’s first base production off what we would have gotten from Kotchman, then Prado certainly is an upgrade in terms of value. He’s a better hitter (72-point higher career OPS), has played fantastic defense in his relatively small amount of time at first, and will make about 1/9th Kotchman’s salary this year and around 1/13th his salary in 2010.

The obvious hole in my logic at this point is who will play second and that’s a legitimate concern that could completely destroy this whole scenario if one Kelly Johnson doesn’t hit. I’m optimistic based off of past results and how much less pathetic he’s looked at the plate since his DL stint that KJ is capable of returning as a starting-caliber second baseman, but nevertheless it is a concern. If Kelly (or some combination of Infante and him) can hold down the fort at second, that also frees up possible at-bats and playing time for Brooks Conrad, who undoubtedly impressed Bobby and the rest of the coaching staff in his short time with the big club this season.

The true bottom line in this post is that utilizing Martin Prado at first would not only upgrade the position, but would save a significant amount of money (up to $10 million over the next two seasons) compared to what the team would have been paying for Kotchman and that’s money that could come in handy when looking to re-sign Rafael Soriano after the season.

While I’m elated to see Nate McLouth in an Atlanta uniform (a .600 OPS from your everyday centerfielder will do that for you), there’s still work to be done. Before I get into this, I’d just like to point out that this isn’t a frustrated bitching post (I’ll save that for the day after a tough loss) and I don’t want any sarcastic responses about me applying for Wren’s job. This is an innocent idea that will hopefully spark some good discussion.

With that disclaimer out of the way, I can get into the real meat and potatoes of this post. As I said, while the McLouth trade was a huge step in the right direction (and I applaud Wren for making such a big move early on), it leaves the front office in a tough position. The organization’s frustration with Jeff Francoeur’s lack of production seems to finally be catching up with his, well…. lack of production. On top of that, it looks as though Greg Norton may have run his course with the Braves, leaving Bobby Cox without a consistent power source off the bench (as much as you could call Norton a power source). The problem is of course that the team seems to be out of money now that they’re paying McLouth’s $2 million salary. That financial inflexibility combined with an economy that will put a premium on cheap fixes this trading season means that a creative solution will be necessary to further strengthen the team.

With all that said, I come to my ingenious solution (that I blatantly ripped off from MLBTR) -- Shelley Duncan. He’s not the sexy acquisition (I’m lookin’ at you Matt Holliday), but he fits what the Braves need and maybe most importantly, is affordable in terms of salary and what it would take to acquire him. He can play both corner outfield spots, bring quite a bit of power off the bench, and back up first if when Martin Prado is filling in for Chipper at third. And on top of everything, he’s right-handed (hasn’t that become a rare thing in Atlanta?). Duncan is currently making International League pitchers wet themselves for the Yankees’ triple-A affiliate to the tune of a .310/.379/.670 line with 20 homers. Obviously a 29-year old AAAA slugger isn’t going to be that successful in the majors, but his small amount of major league experience definitely warrants more of a look that the Yankees really can’t provide. In ’07 he posted an .883 OPS in 74 at-bats with a .255 BABIP and while he struggled mightily last season, his .202 BABIP more than likely had a significant hand in that.

No one should be expecting too much with Duncan. He’ll give you loads of power, a good amount of strikeouts (25.2% in 133 career MLB at-bats), and a mediocre on-base skills (Atlanta fans shouldn’t be too picky at this point). What makes this even more appealing is that we actually match up fairly well with the Yankees as trading partners. Atlanta has a glut of pitching and the Yankees bullpen is truly painful to watch (4.85 ERA). The Braves have surplus arms like Boone Logan, James Parr, and Luis Valdez seemingly trapped in Gwinnett, that may interest the Yankees for a player of little to no value to them. Would this move make our opponents shake in awe of our offense? No, I don’t think that’ll happen regardless of what Wren does. What this will do is affordably give the Braves a shot at solving some of their offensive woes and some right-handed power to change up what is a lefty-heavy lineup. Thoughts?

This guy has had a great career as a manager, but Bobby, it's over. As of now, he is one of the worst managers in the game and continually removes any doubt of that. This game has been an absolute embrarassment as a Braves fan.

First, Jo-Jo Reyes is not going to be an effective major league starter. He's shown numerous times that he doesn't have the stuff, control, or command to consistently be effective as even a back-end of the rotation starter. He may have a future out of the pen, but we've got Tommy Hanson and Kris Medlen making AAA batters look foolish. CALL ONE OF THEM UP!!!

Second, the bullpen. Listen, I love what Bobby has done mixing and matching Soriano and Gonzalez, but that doesn't make up for having two pitchers in that pen that have absolutely no business being on a major league roster. Jeff Bennett just doesn't have the stuff that he had last season (probably because he's been visiting mcdonalds a bit too much lately) and Buddy Carlyle has never had the stuff to be a major league pitcher. He's like a real poor man's Kyle Davies in terms of stuff, who somehow was able to get lucky last season and have some success. It's not last season though. He's historically been bad, is bad, and will continue to be bad.

And of course it's not exactly all that difficult to fix these problems. Here you go Bobby, I'll give you a bit of help. Call Hanson up to replace Jo-Jo and kick those other two bums to the curb for Medlen and you can fill in the third (Morton?). I just needed to rant.

I thought some of you might be interested in a Q&A I just did with Jeff Locke, who was just rated by John as the Braves' eleventh best prospect.

http://mvn.com/mlb-braves/2008/02/19/jeff-locke-qa/                

I'm doing an interview with Braves prospect Jeff Locke for Chop-n-Change, my Braves blog over at MVN. I wanted to know if there are any questions you'd like him to answer and I'll take the best couple from the responses and ask him.

John ranked him as the eleventh best Braves prospect with a B- grade this year.

I just made a trade in my fantasy keep league. I traded Delmon Young and Jeremy Jeffress for Jay Bruce and Jarrod Parker. I wanted to see some of your opinions on the deal.

I really liked Young and Jeffress but especially after the latter;s off-field problems last year, this seemed like a no-brainer to me.  

I figured for sure the Red Sox were not going to keep Will Middlebrooks from going to A&M, but he signed with the Sox for a little under one million.

McGeary signed for $1.8 million but will be allowed to attend classes at Stanford and play baseball in the summer until he graduates. Washington will also be picking up the cost of his tuition. I like what the Nats front office is doing. They made a big splash during this draft and added some big talent to a depleted farm system.

just saw it on CNN                                                                    

Heyward signing has been made official according to Heyward's agent. It is on the Braves official site.

Just got his first hit after striking out twice in the game. Three-run homer to right in the seventh to put the Cards up 5-0. You just had to know after such a great story that he would hit one in his first game.

 The prospect guy over at BP did answered a couple questions over at Chop-n-Change about the Braves prospects. There are some opinions that I don't think Braves fans will like but it is definitely a worthwhile read.

www.mvn.com/mlb-braves/2007/08/08/prospect-chat-with-bryan-smith/

The prospect guy over at BP did answered a couple questions over at Chop-n-Change about the Braves prospects. There are some opinions that I don't think Braves fans will like but it is definitely a worthwhile read.

www.mvn.com/mlb-braves/2007/08/08/prospect-chat-with-bryan-smith/

With Andrus gone there are two good young guys left. Brent Lillibridge and Yunel Escobar. Who do you guys think has the higher ceiling?

does anyone know where I can find a list of the suggested draft slot values for the first round? Thanks                                                                                                            

Big name draft and follow to sign this year after being taken in the 22nd round last year. Hanson was taken in the 22nd round the year before so that round seems to have treated the Braves good. Anyway, wanted to know your opinions on him since I haven't heard much. He is a 20-year old left hander at 6'3 205 lbs. Here are his stats in rookie level Danville.

7 games (six starts), 3-2, 0.59 ERA, 30.1 IP, 19 H, 6 BB, 52 K, 0 HR, 1.86 GO/AO

This is what BA said on their prospect hot sheet a week or two ago

"Striking out more than one batter per inning in each of his previous four starts, Rohrbough followed that up with 11 strikeouts in six innings July 13, and another 11 strikeout performance Thursday in five innings. The 2006 22nd rounder from Western Nevada Community College, one of this year's highest-profile draft-and-follow signees, has used a fastball that has touched 94 and a power spike curveball with excellent depth and a changeup to record 42 strikeouts and just six walks in 25.1 innings."

So what does you guys think? I'd like to hear any opinions on the guy.

It hasn't been made official yet but reports are that the Braves have agreed with Heyward on a $1.7 million bonus. There may be a hold up over something minor but if they have the money close then that means he is as good as signed.

www.mvn.com/mlb-braves/2007/07/13/braves-reportedly-reach-agreement-with-heyward/

He got moved up to AAA and his first start was mediocre. His second start came tonight and he absolutely dominated. 6 innings, one hit, three walks, twelve strikeouts, and five groundball outs to only one fly ball out. I saw him when he so quickly got called up to the majors the first time after hearing about him a bit during the off season. At that point he seemed far too reliant on his fastball and for the games where he has been hit hard he has just been using his fastball 90% of the time. The games where he has been good he mixes in a good change and that absolute hammer curve. This kid has all the makings of a top of the rotation starter if he gets confident enough to rely on all of his pitches. I think he is one of the most underrated pitching prospects in baseball at this point.

http://mvn.com/mlb-braves/2007/07/08/richmond-downs-syracuse/

I went to the Richmond Braves game tonight. You can read the entire thing by following the link above. I'm just going to talk about the legit prospects and not career minor leaguers here. Gregor Blanco looked absolutely overmatched at the plate. He wasn't making contact, was taking strikes, swinging at balls, and was just pretty much miserable. Brayan Pena was at first and the ball absolutely jumped off his bat even on the outs. Martin Prado looked good and I think he'll be a very good utility man down the road, and Manny Acosta threw nothing but fastballs and still dominated the hitters. I was hoping to see Brent Lillibridge but he wasn't in the lineup. I asked Manny Acosta after the game but I couldn't understand a word he said.

I moved after the game started and situated myself behind a couple scouts so I could see the readings on their radar game. I didn't catch what team they were from but they seemed to be there to watch Victor Zambrano, the Chiefs starter, more than anyone. Someone must be desparate for pitching because he was absolutely miserable. No command whatsoever.

When he signed I remember the article said he'd be with West Virginia within a couple days and now a couple weeks later I still can't find him on their roster. Did he get injured or something? I just can't seem to find what happened to him.    
                                                                             

Mike Sweeney is going to have arthroscopic knee surgery tomorrow and will be out at least a month which means Butler will get to stay a bit longer. I think by the time Sweeney gets back Butler will have earned his spot as the DH. I think the Sweeney era in KC is over.                                                

The guy was discovered by the Yankees in the independent leagues and has just absolutely dominated in the minors (3-0 0.64 ERA, 80 K and 17 BB in 43.1 IP with a .128 BAA). I know there was a thread about him recently and he made his debut tonight which I saw. 90-91 mph fastball that he was locating pretty well (nerves got the best of him on a couple pitches) and a nasty change/palmball. This thing drops to about 77 mph and has nasty sink as well as moving in towards righties. He made the last batter look absolutely silly on the pitch. By the way he went an inning and struck out all three he faced. He also had another change it looked like at around 80 mph. It may be a fastball and two types of changeups or a fastball, change, and a palmball but this thing was pretty nasty.

It was either going to be the Yanks or the Braves. Now I am waiting for Flores. Bill Shanks is reporting it on scout.com and says he has 91-94 mph fastball with a good breaking pitch and good change. Nice to see the Braves picking up one of the top international players.

http://braves.scout.com/2/656167.html

I am in an 18 team league. We have full 25 man and 40 man rosters as well as a minor league system. I acquired the top pick in the second round after getting David Price, Matt Wieters, Matt LaPorta, and Jason Heyward in the first round. If the pick chooses to not sign then you still have the rights to the player. My plan is basically to go after the highest upside players even if they aren't expected to sign. For this pick I am choosing between Phillip Aumont, Matt Dominguez, Matt Harvey, and Neven Griffith or basically anyone else after the first 15 picks (minus porcello and Brackman) in the first round). This is becoming a very hard choice for me. I'd appreciate any advice as to a high upside player to choose. Thanks. And quick impact isn't all that important. I have a stacked major league roster and farm system so I'd rather have upside.

Has he officially taken over as the top closer in baseball? People said last year that it was just because the scouting report wasn't around and people would catch up to him but his numbers are insane! 21/22 in saves, 1.41 ERA, 21 hits in 32 innings, and a 13.67 K/BB ratio. I am ready to hand the title over. He is absolutely nasty.

I'm trying to compile a list of guys that recently struggled big time in their walk year to see what kind of contract they got. This is to sort of set a precedent with Andruw Jones' situation. Any help of players that have done sort of the same thing would be greatly appreciated.

I really respect a lot of you in regards to your knowledge of prospects so I would love some input. Tomorrow my league is starting their June Draft and I, through trades have acquired the top three picks in the draft as well as my number eight overall pick. I am just trying to see people's opinions on who I should take. Just a little background, defense counts for next to nothing and if a player doesn't sign, you still have the rights to that player so if they go to college, you still have their rights when they come out. Right now I am looking at taking Price, Porcello, and Heyward. I know Heyward will be off the board at 8 based on talking to other GMs in the league and I love his bat. Another possibility is Matt Laporta but I am hoping he drops to eight. Who would you guys take?