SBNation.com User Blog: whistlingmountain

Last Super Bowl Wins and Appearances

whistlingmountain — Fri, 25 Jan 2013 19:04:45 -0000

Had a few moments, thought it was interesting to look at. It's by season year not the actual year of the super bowl game itself.

	NFC	AFC	Last Win
2012	49ers	Ravens	2012
2011	Giants	Patriots	2011	Giants
2010	Packers	Steelers	2010	Packers
2009	Saints	Colts	2009	Saints
2008	Cardinals		2008	Steelers
2007			2007
2006	Bears		2006	Colts
2005	Seahawks		2005
2004	Eagles		2004	Patriots
2003	Panthers		2003
2002	Bucs	Raiders	2002	Bucs
2001	Rams		2001
2000			2000	Ravens
1999		Titans	1999	Rams
1998	Falcons	Broncos	1998	Broncos
1997			1997
1996			1996
1995	Cowboys		1995	Cowboys
1994		Chargers	1994	49ers
1993		Bills	1993
1992			1992
1991	Redskins		1991	Redskins
1990			1990
1989			1989
1988		Bengals	1988
1987			1987
1986			1986
1985			1985	Bears
1984		Dolphins	1984
1983			1983	Raiders
1982			1982
1981			1981
1980			1980
1979			1979
1978			1978
1977			1977
1976	Vikings		1976
1975			1975
1974			1974
1973			1973	Dolphins
1972			1972
1971			1971
1970			1970
1969		Chiefs	1969	Chiefs
1968		Jets	1968	Jets
1967			1967
1966			1966
Never	Lions	Browns	Never	Bengals
		Jaguars		Bills
		Texans		Browns
				Cardinals
				Chargers
				Eagles
				Falcons
				Jaguars
				Lions
				Panthers
				Seahawks
				Texans
				Titans
				Vikings

Had a few moments, thought it was interesting to look at. It's by season year not the actual year of the super bowl game itself.

	NFC	AFC	Last Win
2012	49ers	Ravens	2012
2011	Giants	Patriots	2011	Giants
2010	Packers	Steelers	2010	Packers
2009	Saints	Colts	2009	Saints
2008	Cardinals		2008	Steelers
2007			2007
2006	Bears		2006	Colts
2005	Seahawks		2005
2004	Eagles		2004	Patriots
2003	Panthers		2003
2002	Bucs	Raiders	2002	Bucs
2001	Rams		2001
2000			2000	Ravens
1999		Titans	1999	Rams
1998	Falcons	Broncos	1998	Broncos
1997			1997
1996			1996
1995	Cowboys		1995	Cowboys
1994		Chargers	1994	49ers
1993		Bills	1993
1992			1992
1991	Redskins		1991	Redskins
1990			1990
1989			1989
1988		Bengals	1988
1987			1987
1986			1986
1985			1985	Bears
1984		Dolphins	1984
1983			1983	Raiders
1982			1982
1981			1981
1980			1980
1979			1979
1978			1978
1977			1977
1976	Vikings		1976
1975			1975
1974			1974
1973			1973	Dolphins
1972			1972
1971			1971
1970			1970
1969		Chiefs	1969	Chiefs
1968		Jets	1968	Jets
1967			1967
1966			1966
Never	Lions	Browns	Never	Bengals
		Jaguars		Bills
		Texans		Browns
				Cardinals
				Chargers
				Eagles
				Falcons
				Jaguars
				Lions
				Panthers
				Seahawks
				Texans
				Titans
				Vikings

Senior Bowl - Chris Harper WR(TE)

whistlingmountain — Wed, 23 Jan 2013 19:20:42 -0000

One of the biggest possible needs the 49ers have this off-season is a #2 TE. I think they'll want that guy to be like Walker, something of a multi-use player. A guy that can line up in the backfield, on the end, in the slot, wide.. etc.. Fast, but with good blocking ability. I don't think you find that guy by drafting a TE, you find it by drafting a stout wide receiver or a tall running back.

Looking around it really seems like Chris Harper might be that guy. 6'0, 230, he'd probably have to bulk up a bit to get to Walker's 240ish. He was a 4 star recruit out of high school and signed with Oregon hoping to be a quarterback. They moved him to WR and he shortly thereafter transferred to Kansas St where he's put up modest, but consistent numbers. He's being projected to run the 40 in 4.45 range.

Really looks like the Walker mold to me and is currently projected as a 5th rounder. 49ers could maybe use their late 4th to get him or move up in the 4th with their extra picks.

Anyone have any thoughts on this guy? Any K-State fans with more viewing experience?

Really looks like the Walker mold to me and is currently projected as a 5th rounder. 49ers could maybe use their late 4th to get him or move up in the 4th with their extra picks.

Anyone have any thoughts on this guy? Any K-State fans with more viewing experience?

The Hulk - Knowing the Moment

whistlingmountain — Mon, 14 Jan 2013 16:37:30 -0000

There was a play early in the Falcons vs Seahawks game that typified why I think Matt Ryan is a terrible big game QB. 2nd down and 8, he scambled to his right. With about 3 yards to go there was a defender 6 yards away. He took one more step and slid down. He could have easily dove for the first, but he took the safe play. Safe in regards to injury. Not safe in regards to winning the ball game. It was maddening to me from a football standpoint. Ryan did not rise to the moment. He played it like it was a regular season game. Needless to say they did not convert 3rd down. They settled for a FG.

He stayed Bruce Banner. Brilliant scientist, thinker.. When he needed to get angry. Needed brute force. Needed to scare the defense.

Matt Schaub did the same against the Patriots. Got free of a rusher. Could have easily gained 5 yards and maybe taken a hit. Threw it away. They punted.

Elway knew when to be the Hulk. Young knew.

There has been a lot of talk ever since Michael Vick came sprinting into the NFL about "changing the position." It was probably whispered before I was born. It was spoken audibly with Steve Young and Randal Cunningham out there. With Vick it was being yelled at us. It echoed between the caverns that separate the mountainous NFL coverage outlets. When it turned out Vick was nothing more than an average QB it was quiet once again.

The QB balance had been restored. Tom Brady? Peyton Manning? Drew Brees? back to normal.

Vince Young?

CAM NEWON??

RGIII?!?!?!?!?!?!??!

It's loud again and if you weren't paying attention, Kaepernick's sonic boom thundered throughout the enclaves of social media and corporate media all the same. It shattered the hopes and dreams of Packer fans and sent aftershocks through the NFL fan bases. They were still mumbling under their breaths about how Kaepernick is staring down his receivers, about how he is inaccurate, how the NFL will figure it out next year and he'll get injured.

They are right, but.. they are wrong.

The two seasons in the NFL are very different. The regular season, a long term percentage play to get a healthy team into the playoffs. The post season, a short stint against several good teams in a row.

There will never be a QB who has a successful long-term career playing the way that RG3 did during the regular season. As Vick has done. As Kaepernick did in that very game that saw his Legend grow three sizes.. before breaking your TV set.

The next generation of QBs. Perhaps a generation that has come before, is not simply a quarterback that runs the option, who scrambles 15 times a game. No, I say, it is the quarterback who is good enough as a pocket passer to get his team to the playoffs without having to expose himself to too many hits. Then to use those abilities only when the season is on the line at the end of the regular season or the playoffs themselves.

Only when the moment is right.

Only when the beast must be unleashed.

When someone says championships are won with pocket passing. They are correct! When they say these option plays and running QBs are a fad. They are wrong!

You needn't look farther than guys like Rodgers, or Wilson, or Luck. They're not as physically imposing as Kaepernick or Newton, but make no mistake they can all scare the defense with their legs when necessary in the biggest of moments. I fervently believe that Rogers needs to run more in big games. Instead of going for bombs on third and short, he should take the first every time it is there in a big game. Every QB who is capable of doing it should.

Athletes of this level, who have been passing since they were 7 years old. Who enter the NFL at 23, 24, 25 years old. Physically and emotionally mature. They are growing in number. It will quickly become a league of haves and have-nots. Do you have an athletically imposing QB who is [insert minimum here] a pocket passer? Build the rest of your team around him, make it to the playoffs, and then let him run.

All this is why I do think that Wilson is a better overall QB than Kaepernick right now. He's a better passer, and I think he's better at knowing the moment. The Seahawks are probably better positioned to have a consistent regular season next year because of it.

Can Kaepernick get there? Of course, but anyone expecting or hoping for Kaepernick to do next season, what he did a couple days ago has it wrong. The offense should return to what it was before in the regular season. Defense, run the ball, pocket passing. Do not expose Kaepernick to unnecessary hits.

This will make teams like Seattle and SF all the more dangerous in the playoffs. It will terrorize the playoffs, disappear into legend for a year and return in the playoffs to demoralize defenses who have not seen it on film since it last devoured their souls.

He stayed Bruce Banner. Brilliant scientist, thinker.. When he needed to get angry. Needed brute force. Needed to scare the defense.

Matt Schaub did the same against the Patriots. Got free of a rusher. Could have easily gained 5 yards and maybe taken a hit. Threw it away. They punted.

Elway knew when to be the Hulk. Young knew.

The QB balance had been restored. Tom Brady? Peyton Manning? Drew Brees? back to normal.

Vince Young?

CAM NEWON??

RGIII?!?!?!?!?!?!??!

They are right, but.. they are wrong.

Only when the moment is right.

Only when the beast must be unleashed.

When someone says championships are won with pocket passing. They are correct! When they say these option plays and running QBs are a fad. They are wrong!

This is what you get.. when you mess with us..

whistlingmountain — Sun, 13 Jan 2013 12:48:38 -0000

I tend to watch games on mute with Pandora on in the background. Right as Kaepernick was breaking through the hole and going on the TD run to go up 31-24, that was the lyric echoing in my otherwise empty house. Fit pretty well I thought.

I had a bunch of things written up and was just going to post them in the nuggets thread until I realized how long it was and how quickly the nuggets would be off the front page and I mightn't get to discuss them with anyone.

It's hard to gauge just how good Green Bay is. They are one of these modern 1-dimensional passing teams that can only get pressure on defense by rushing extra guys. The rules of course make it so these teams can not just survive, but sometimes thrive when their QB goes nuts. ( See 2009/2010 super bowl winners, 2011 super bowl loser ). On one hand they could have been one of those teams to go on a run. On the other hand they could have just been the Packers of 2009, getting thumped by the Cardinals.

That being said, the circumstances of this game, both before and during, have me thinking this is the most impressive 49ers victory since the 94-95 Super Bowl itself. I know a lot of people were jazzed by the Saints win last year, but to me that was a spotty performance. This game had a complete package of amazing including the initial interception. I mean, I can't be the only one that had a fear that Kaepernick would come back out numb. That the 49ers would focus too much on the run from then on. What did he do? He threw a freaking dart to Davis with a guy on him. In realtime it looked like it could have been intercepted. Then in slow motion it was a perfect throw to the correct shoulder that could only be caught by Vernon.

Everyone has a prediction for how a game will go. This game generally was played exactly as I'd thought it would be. The two X-factors of course were whether the 49ers could finish their drives with TDs ( yes ) and whether the Packers would "Hit" on their big 3rd downs ( mostly, no, except for that James Jones leaping bobble )

The "finish their drives with TDs" came right into play in their 2nd drive of the game. Third and 8. Down 7-0. In my head this is why I wanted the 49ers to defer. If Justin Smith had come out on the first drive on defense and couldn't play, then this becomes 4 down territory right? Without having the 49ers defense on the field yet, it's not. It's a FG, it's 7-3 and mayhaps a quick 14-3. Well Colin got the Packers in man, and did what he should do in big games, took off. He got the TD, but he just needed 8. That's the important part. Move the chains. Keep the Packers on the field. That was obviously a theme of the game with the type of time of possession domination you rarely see in a regular season game let alone two teams that finished with 11 wins matched up in the playoffs.

The Packers quickly go 3 and out. Surprisingly the 3rd down was a short play and still incomplete. I wonder if this made them go extra aggressive on these down the rest of the way.

The 49ers punted on their next drive too, but it showed so much about the game. Even there on one of their few drives that failed to score points, they drove 50 yards. It was also their first deep shot to Moss. A connection in which Kaepernick had been under throwing Moss, now he was overthrowing him by just a couple yards each time. Each time Moss's expression one of frustration that he just doesn't have that gear. Disappointed he couldn't be producing the big plays he expects from himself. Each making it harder for me to believe he's back next year.

Then the 49ers made their 2nd mistake of the game. Punted from the 40, lands at around the 5 and caroms into the endzone. A 20 yard punt. Earlier in the week I had been talking with someone on NN about going for it on 4th downs in the opponents territory. How the "stats" of it all are based around punters who end up kicking it into the endzone, "Not Lee!" I thought. Ugh.

The Packers hit their first 3rd and short big play attempt in the ensuing drive. In my mind flashback to Seattle. That bobble, kick, catch that was a symbol of everything going wrong on D. Next play or a couple plays later, right up the gut. TD. This is what we all feared right? Justin must not be all the way back, that was a Swiss cheese run the 49ers just don't give up when they are all healthy. Fears are realized, the 49ers offense will need to put up 35+.

That's what made the end of the next drive so frustrating. They, once again, move the ball on an over matched Packers D. It was obvious already at this point that the 49ers would be moving the ball 30-40 yards every drive. They had no one to guard Crabtree. The timing between him and Kaepernick was too good. It was 3rd and 12 at around midfield. I am expecting a 7 or 8 yard play so that they can go for it on 4th and short, but instead it looks like a designed short dump to Delanie, who gains 3 yards. In comes the punting unit and my thought is.. "I guess they're going to need turnovers if they are going to win this game." Boom, gift, turnover. CJ Spillman had an amazing night.

Kaepernick doesn't get enough loft on his throw to Miller. ( Great play design, he was open ). And a botched early snap and OH MY GOD ARE THEY SQUANDERING THIS?!?! No! Another great play design! Crabtree for a TD. The 2nd time already, 3rd and long in the red zone and they score a TD. It's ON. This year Crabtree has gone from being a good #2 receiver playing #1, to an ok #1, to a really good #1. He doesn't have the outright speed or height to be a dominant #1, but I've always thought he could be better than someone like Hakeem Nicks at this best.

I'm not going to talk about the rest of the game by drive, just up until that point was a whirlwind really that could only be discussed linearly.

Some thoughts about the rest of the game

-Walker with 2 more drops. Not difficult drops either. Crabtree also had one, a bit of a difficult catch, but one he should make. And one that could have turned into an interception. I still think they need to replace or at least augment Walker in the draft. I'm thinking Jordan Reed in the 2nd fits the Walker mold. I hope they keep Walker too at a low price, but I think they need competition there.

-There was a play in this game that perfectly showed why Vernon is not more often a target from Kaepernick or even Alex. Kaepernick conservatively led Vernon, giving him the opportunity to position his body and make a play on the ball. Instead Vernon did his usual thing, running to a spot in which he can jump to catch it in his stomach. The defender attacked the ball in the air with his hands and deflected it. I'm sure someone could probably grab a still frame of the defenders hand knocking the ball away with Vernon in mid air. A good receiver, or receiving TE, just flattens his route a little and catches it with his hands leaving the defender behind his body, unable to make a play.

-Later in the game when Vernon did make his big play, it was because it was an over the shoulder catch on a line. On passes where he has turned side ways or is looking back at the QB, he needs extra separation because of this habit.

-What can you really say about the 49ers offensive line? They really just dominated throughout. It was the biggest mismatch of the game. The Packers HAD to send extra guys to put any pressure on Kaepernick and when they did, it left 1v1 match ups and massive running lanes. Capers is getting roasted today, but there were no good solutions for defending Kaepernick when the defensive front 7 simply can not stop the run and the front 4 can't get pressure.

-Extra shout out to Staley, we all saw him in pain after he received what I expect was a deep bone bruise. Guy was a manimal out there.

-I had thought the NFL did not delay games because of overlapping schedules. My first thought on this is, hey NFL, if this is a thing why not start the first game 30 minutes earlier? It ended up overlapping anyway. It's completely unfair to the players on both teams who go through their rituals and routines, who get themselves amped.. and then get told it's 10 more minutes.

-Considering their early lead and early success on the ground, I was shocked at how quickly the Packers abandoned the run. It worked out for the 49ers, but personally I hate it when teams do it. Makes the game potentially take forever with incomplete pass stoppages. Forces the 49ers to put their dime and .. dollar.. packages on the field and take out 1 or 2 pro bowlers.. or all-pros. Makes the game difficult to watch from an xs and os standpoint as it becomes so straight forward. Like many of the big college football programs of the 90s. Hey, our 4th WR is faster than your 4th CB! Strategy!

-Kaepernick was throwing some wobblers on that first drive, but they were getting there. Not sure if it was nerves, they were gone by the 2nd quarter.

-The 49ers fall behind and then march all over a completely over matched defense, while their defense stifles a 1-dimensional offense. Sound familiar? The parallels between SF and Seattle are so obvious in both personnel and philosophy that it's difficult to imagine anything other than a rubber match for the NFC title.

-I think that the 49ers are going to suffer when they lose Roman. He called a good game today, what I might call a "high percentage" game plan revolving around exploiting the Packers weaknesses over and over. It's something of a hive-mind preparation for games though and I wonder if they're not greater than the sum of their parts. Here's hoping that maybe they can promote Christ and bring in Ault and continue the hive mind.

-Again, I had the TV on mute, but I hope there was a clear whistle when Goldson received his late hit penalty. Otherwise, if the RB doesn't want to get clocked, he should go down and stop fighting for yards. Not much later in the game Cobb was held up, but then broke a tackle right as Goldson came in and got him too. Was waiting to see if there'd be another flag.

-Kaepernick's spike penalty was incredibly stupid. I hope no 49er fans are really pushing that it was a bad call. It is an obvious call. Just like throwing the ball at someone is obvious ( JOSH MORGAN I'M LOOKING AT YOU ). What annoyed me about it was how much they were letting the Packers do after the play, every play. Punching, shoving, head butting. A little later in the game Goldson threw a little jab at Finley's helmet and I thought oh great they'll flag that now. They didn't thankfully, but the officials needed to flag the early headbutt to stop that nonsense from happening. I was surprised there wasn't a fight later in the game when the score got out of hand. Well there was a fight, but just a small one. Also not flagged.

-Overall the officials weren't great, but I don't think they were awful like the early game. Even if the 49ers had lost I don't think they were bad. I went into the game expecting a certain level of playoff holding, and it happened. What I loved was that not only did the 49ers offensive linemen and defenders add the playoff holding to their games, but the 49ers receivers did too. Really helped on those long runs.

-Bruce Miller had a hold that was unnecessary, they ended up scoring anyway. Bruce, just let James get to the outside there. You're in too obvious a position to hold.

-Culliver's penalty was also unnecessary, but he was grabbing like that all game. That's the percentages you play. Yea, maybe it wasn't catch able, but that's difficult to tell from his position.

-I was surprised Green Bay punted down 14 with 12 or so minutes left. Especially after missing on yet another overly aggressive 3rd down. This is where you play percentages. The Packers had stopped the 49ers all of twice since the interception. Now they were expecting to do it twice in a row?

-Will Rodgers put a #11 Smith Jersey on already?!?! That's twice, just wear it, then sell it to charity. It's not that difficult. I could not believe all the talk about the Packers winning because of how Rodgers motivates himself. Every player is 100% motivated in the playoffs. Stop retroactively defining the narrative because it just so happens that some ( a freaking tiny minority ) 100% define themselves by all the slights that have occurred previously in their lives. Rodgers himself seems tired of this narrative, shaking off that draft day quote in the days leading up to the game.

-Cobb must not have been anywhere near 100%. Just didn't have the burst, and he wasn't out there for the first two punt return. That's a big loss for that offense as they rely on him for much of their variety similar to how the 49ers rely on Walker. I'm sure you remember how the 49ers offense stalled when Walker was injured last year.

-Finally, one of the biggest things about this game was the time of possession. The 49ers' defense got a bye to rest, and faced 4 and 5 wide outs. It could have easily been a nightmare of running leaving them exhausted win or lose. Instead the Packers had quick drives with breaks in between. If they do face the Seahawks again, I'm not worried about exhaustion.

Sorry for any grammatical or spelling errors, I did not proof read this yet.

The Packers quickly go 3 and out. Surprisingly the 3rd down was a short play and still incomplete. I wonder if this made them go extra aggressive on these down the rest of the way.

I'm not going to talk about the rest of the game by drive, just up until that point was a whirlwind really that could only be discussed linearly.

Some thoughts about the rest of the game

-Extra shout out to Staley, we all saw him in pain after he received what I expect was a deep bone bruise. Guy was a manimal out there.

-Kaepernick was throwing some wobblers on that first drive, but they were getting there. Not sure if it was nerves, they were gone by the 2nd quarter.

-Bruce Miller had a hold that was unnecessary, they ended up scoring anyway. Bruce, just let James get to the outside there. You're in too obvious a position to hold.

-Culliver's penalty was also unnecessary, but he was grabbing like that all game. That's the percentages you play. Yea, maybe it wasn't catch able, but that's difficult to tell from his position.

Sorry for any grammatical or spelling errors, I did not proof read this yet.

Playoffs vs Teams Over .500

whistlingmountain — Tue, 01 Jan 2013 13:17:46 -0000

	Total	Since Wk 9	Home	Away
Broncos	2-3	2-0	0-1	2-2
Colts	3-3	1-2	3-0	0-3
Patriots	3-3	2-1	3-1	0-2
Texans	4-4	2-3	2-2	2-2
Bengals	3-2	2-1	2-1	1-1
Ravens	3-4	1-3	3-1	0-3
Redskins	2-3	1-0	2-2	0-1
49ers	4-3	2-1	2-1	2-2
Packers	4-5	2-2	2-1	2-4
Falcons	3-0	1-0	2-0	1-0
Seahawks	5-1	3-0	4-0	1-1
Vikings	4-5	2-3	3-0	1-5

Couple things that stuck out to me

Packers and Vikings had to play 6 road games and 9 games total against > 500 teams because Vikings, Bears, Packers, Seahawks, 49ers, Texans and Colts finished above 500 in their divisional schedules ( Packers also played the Giants, Vikings the Redskins in their crossovers, neither played Atlanta )

No team was better than .500 on the road in these match-ups except..

Atlanta is secretly undefeated in these match-ups this year, though 2 of those were against the Broncos and Redskins figuring themselves out early in the season. ( The 3rd the curb stomping of the Giants of course )

Other than Atlanta, the teams with the best home records are wildcards and either can't play at home, or can't play at home unless 5vs6 in the championship.

The Seahawks of course, 4-0 at home with the comebacks against the Pats and Packers and the stomping of the 49ers and that kind of "blah" mid season match up against the Vikings in which both teams called it must win and made it anyway. The Packers win is of course the Packers game, but it is what it is. Worse calls have happened in the past before replay.

Side note, the Giants were 1-3 last year. All in the 2nd half of the season including losses to the Packers and 49ers, 1-2 on the road, before going 4-0 in the playoffs beating the Packers and 49ers and the Patriots again.

IE, any of the 5 teams no the Vikings in whomever prevails from the series of coin flip games we will call the NFC playoffs.

	Total	Since Wk 9	Home	Away
Broncos	2-3	2-0	0-1	2-2
Colts	3-3	1-2	3-0	0-3
Patriots	3-3	2-1	3-1	0-2
Texans	4-4	2-3	2-2	2-2
Bengals	3-2	2-1	2-1	1-1
Ravens	3-4	1-3	3-1	0-3
Redskins	2-3	1-0	2-2	0-1
49ers	4-3	2-1	2-1	2-2
Packers	4-5	2-2	2-1	2-4
Falcons	3-0	1-0	2-0	1-0
Seahawks	5-1	3-0	4-0	1-1
Vikings	4-5	2-3	3-0	1-5

Couple things that stuck out to me

No team was better than .500 on the road in these match-ups except..

Other than Atlanta, the teams with the best home records are wildcards and either can't play at home, or can't play at home unless 5vs6 in the championship.

IE, any of the 5 teams no the Vikings in whomever prevails from the series of coin flip games we will call the NFC playoffs.

Around the League and Whatnot

whistlingmountain — Mon, 01 Oct 2012 13:33:26 -0000

So, we're at the quasi(4/17) quarter pole for the regular-season, thought it'd be a nice moment to take a stroll around the league.

Tier 1 - Complete Teams

Houston Texans - They appear to be the only team without a weakness in the NFL. It's been difficult to truly judge them in someways this season as their competition has not been stellar, but they have dominated their opponents. It's also basically the same team from last season except with their starting QB back and, much like the 49ers were hoping for their offense, a true off-season to develop their defense. I haven't looked at super bowl odds recently, but I'd make them "heavy" ( it's all relative in the NFL ) favorites. 4-1 or so and I don't think any other team should be better than 10-1. They have to be ridiculously heavy favorites to get home field in the AFC. They have two tough games coming up against the Packers and Pats I believe, and if they pull those off, a real shot at an undefeated regular season.

Tier 2 - Solid teams with an Issue

Atlanta Falcons - They appear to have picked up right where they left off last regular season, decimating lesser opponents and looking great from the lead. Their main problems remain the same though, they are inconsistent running and stopping the run. In certain match ups this is not much of a problem, but chances are they're going to have to beat 2 teams that can run the ball to win the super bowl and I have serious doubts they can do that.

Arizona Cardinals - Every year there seems to be a team like these guys. While the QB play was so pitiful in the preseason many were predicting them to be the worst team in the NFL, there was still a more general sense that they were an 8-8 team. We all know the talking points, they won blah blah out of blah blah to end the regular season, they just know how to win close games, etc etc. We also know that statements like that are statistical gibberish. There's no carry over from the end of previous seasons, and 1 score games tend to regress to 50%. That being said, once the game is won, it's won. If you flip a coin and it comes up heads the first 2 times, it's still 50/50 the 3rd. If we say that the Cardinals were going to have 3 easy wins, 3 easy losses and 10 coin flips, well they're 1-0 in easy wins and 3-0 in coin-flips. They're looking at 10 wins now in that scenario. I will say that all the defenses in the NFC West are underrated ( except the 49ers, which is probably a little overrated ), and because of that they can stay in any game in which the other team is not really playing lights out. I think the Cardinals are good enough to win 3 or 4 games in a row against good teams and win a super bowl. First step is to make the playoffs and they're in great shape for that.

San Francisco 49ers - We all pretty much know the story. Great on defense, good on special teams, good running game, dink and dunk passing. If they play from a head they're as good as any team, if they stumble out of the gate it's.. difficult to watch. I do think, like the Cardinals, they're capable of winning 3 or 4 in a row against good teams. The margins are small, but they're small for all teams except for the Texans I think. I'm openly curious as to whether the 49ers would be a better team short-term with Kaepernick as the starter, but think that it's better long-term if he continues to learn how to be a pocket passer in practice.

Baltimore Ravens - I feel bad for the Ravens as it feels like every year they're getting slightly better in some areas while getting equally slightly worse in others. They've never had that year where it comes together for them. The potential for the passing offense is there, but Flacco can't quite take that step. I do think they're a slightly more balanced version of the 49ers. A slightly less effective version of the Texans. They can win the super bowl, but it will take another level of play they've yet to reach on offense, or a return to a level on defense that they probably won't be able to reach without Suggs.

Tier 3 - The potential is there

New England Patriots - They still appear to be so much better than their divisional counterparts that a divisional title and a home game feel like an afterthought. At that point I can easily see them winning 4 games in a row. They still scheme as well as any team in big games, they still have Brady and his stable of practically unstoppable weapons. Their defensive draft picks seem to be doing well.

The NFC East ( sans Washington ) - They say that the real reason fans hate other teams is not because they "win", but rather because they were lucky. In our modern playoff-state it's hard not to look at every champion in every sporting league and find so many examples of just rare lucky breaks that led to it. Rare is the exception in which a dominant and talented team simply outplays and wins easily on their way to the playoff title ( the Kentucky Wildcats last year ). It has to drive the Eagles and Cowboy fans absolutely bonkers to see their equally overrated counterpart win 2 titles in 5 years when they're really no better. The Giants haven't dominated them in the regular season, they haven't dominated regular seasons in general, they haven't won consistently in the playoffs. That's just how it is though. All 3 of these teams are talented enough to make a run if the cards align. All 3 are capable of imploding just the same with their various weaknesses, like stupid decisions by QBs, injuries to injury prone players that are always getting injured, odd disastrous play calling...

Green Bay Packers - Speaking of alignments, it has really felt like things have been aligning against the Packers this season. I'm just waiting now for the inevitable injury to Rodgers or Mathews. Losing either would end their season. The officials took one game from them and almost took another, but to some degree, why were those games close? The Saints look absolutely horrible, and playing on the road in Lambeau, why was that game close enough that a non fumble on a kick off return almost decided it? Why couldn't the Packers block for 2 seconds against the Seahawks? Last year when the Packers were truly firing on all cylinders on offense it was amazing. I kept telling people that when teams do it so early in the season it always fades by the end and it did. This season, it's not there yet, perhaps they can get into a stride later in the season and carry it into the playoffs. I think they need to focus more heavily on Nelson and Cobb and stop mixing up the targets so much.

Tier 4 - Not bad, but not good enough

San Diego Chargers & Denver Broncos - To be short, two ok teams who are seemingly very consistent in their output. They dominate poor teams, they play close with ok teams, they lose to good teams. One will win the West and host a playoff game against,.. maybe the other one.. or maybe the Steelers or Bengals. Plenty winnable. Can one steal enough easy wins to get a bye? I can't see either beating the Texans and then winning the super bowl. Just don't have the ceiling.

Cincinnati Bengals - I still really like Dalton. He was "figured out" toward the end of last season, but he has come back strong. Last year at this time it was basically the opposite, but now it seems their defense can't even slow down mediocre offenses. They should still be able to walk to a 5-1 record and even though their second half schedule is difficult, could still slip into a 9-7 wildcard. The AFC is going to produce two mediocre wild cards.

Pittsburgh Steelers - Separate from the Bengals because they're in such different positions. Their defense is a year older ( I'm sure they would have liked a much later bye week ), thoroughly defeated by the Broncos, beat the hapless Jets ( yea 49er fans, the Jets are hapless ), and lost to the Raiders. The Raiders. Just to add to it though. If the Steelers are a below average team, which they appear to be. What does that say about the AFC? It's kind of shocking that of all the expected-them-to-be-bad teams in the AFC, they all appear to be actually bad.

Minnesota Vikings - They fit a pretty traditional archetype for a football team. Solid, albeit not spectacular defense, inconsistent offense that relies heavily on short passes. We 49er fans may have a bit of a skewed view on them as they had perhaps their best-case scenario against the 49ers at home. I know some people were saying how good they must be by following up their victory with a lead-the-whole-way victory over the Lions, but their offense was completely ineffective the entire game. They appear to be very similar to last year's 49ers, only the NFC North this year is not as bad as the NFC West was last year and the 49ers defense was elite rather than solid. I think this is the annual team that starts off with a good record then slowly collapses back down to earth record wise.

Washington Redskins - RGIII looks great, though I still think these coordinators that push bad long-term instincts for short-term gains are not intelligent. I'm already worried about the number of hits he's taking and he's 4 games into his career. The NFC East is ripe for the taking and the Redskins can do that. I just wonder how long they can survive without their best defenders and how long it'll be before coordinators have enough on RGIII to start forcing him into positions which he currently is avoiding. That is not a knock on RGIII, rather an inevitability for all young players in all sports. Or worse, when he takes a hit at the wrong angle and hurts his wrist or his elbow or his ribs.

Tier 5 - The Rest

Chicago Bears - Cutler holds onto the ball.. way.. too long.. otherwise, they're a solid team. If they had spent the off-season really working him on a 3 and 5 step timer I think they'd be a potential-is-there type team, but Cutler is going to get killed. They're going to struggle against any team that can get a pass rush with 5 guys, let alone 4.

Detroit Lions, New Orleans Saints - Talented teams that haven't won any of their close games. It's a literal worst case scenario for the Saints and they've lost their games by 8,8,3 and 1. Losses are losses, but it says something when the worst case scenario doesn't even include a blow out. I think they need a rather big overhaul on defense, but it can be done in a year or two. The Lions lack of running ability continues to hurt them. Otherwise they appear to be a somewhat average team that is going to be in a lot of close games. I'm not entirely sure what their fix should be. Unfortunately for teams with weak offensive lines, and 49er fans know this, there's no quick fix. Usually takes 2-3 years to develop guys at best.

Miami Dolphins - Watching Tannehill give away the game against the Cardinals makes me believe he won't be able to get it together, but again we're talking about what might end up being a 9-7 wildcard spot. Can the Dolphins go 9-7 with their schedule? Absolutely. It's unfortunate they went with Tannehill instead of Moore. He could have waited a year. They seem to have an ok team otherwise, and with a few opportunistic moments ( rather than the reverse ), could easily be the surprise.

Seattle Seahawks, St. Louis Rams, Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Whatever good parts these teams have they're heavily outweighed by the bad parts. The Seahawks, like the Dolphins, could probably have a shot at the playoffs with competent.. we'll call it "Kolb" level QB play. Their gifted win aside, they may still be able to scrap together a season by shutting down opponents in Seattle. The Panthers have no defense. The Bucs are so terribly inconsistent. The Rams have no offense. People keep waiting for Bradford to turn into someone else. They have a real chance to build a deep team over the next couple drafts I just think that when it's all put together, they're going to bring in a new QB to drive it.

Buffalo Bills, New York Jets, Jacksonville Jaguars, Cleveland Browns, Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans, Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders - I'd put the best odds on the Colts/Luck to be able to come out of this, they will probably lose to the Packers next week, but then could rattle off 5 straight victories. They also play the Texans twice in the last 3 weeks, the Texans may have already wrapped up home field by then. Buffalo appears to be so completely 1 dimensional I have no idea how they win more than 5 or 6 games eternally. Defense is poor and the offense takes too many risks to put up the points they do.

It's strange to say, but I think all of those teams are worse than the worst team in the NFC in general. The worst 8 teams. Now I realize people will argue against that when Kansas City defeated the Saints, in New Orleans. That's completely fair, I just don't personally subscribe to the Parcells "you are what your record says you are" or ends-justifies-means history keeping. The Chiefs upset the Saints, and I firmly believe that. I don't think they are the better team. At 4 games in I feel fine saying the Saints are better than teams that have a victory, if they go 1-15 and the Chiefs go 4-12, probably not at that point. ( The Saints will win eventually, and I do think sadly that the 49ers will get the Saints best game of the year )

Award Candidates

Matt Schaub, JJ Watt, Arian Foster - The 3 best known and key players on the best team. This tends to lean QB these days, but it's a difficult climb for Schaub when the Foster was the most heralded player on the team and the defense played so well last year and this year. JJ Watt a solid candidate for DPOY. I know a lot of people wanted him for the 49ers instead of Aldon, but just imagine. He probably still would only be a rotational backup and Aldon of course is the key pass rusher on the 49ers.

Clay Mathews - With a couple of monster national performances to start the season he is neck and neck with Watt in sacks and, let's face it, national game sacks tend to win the DPOY award. 49ers are going to have a stretch of prime time games coming up and if Aldon or Justin Smith can shine in those games they'll be put into the conversation as well, but as of right now I'd say Mathews and Watt are the two at the quarter pole.

Matt Ryan - Here is a prototypical MVP candidate. His running back is old, his defense is nameless, it's just him and his receivers getting the media attention. He can lean back and heave a jump ball from his own end zone and they come down with it. He's played well and received breaks. That being said, there almost always seems to be a young QB putting up big numbers getting MVP talk this early and almost always fades due to inconsistency while older bigger name guys elevate themselves with huge stats due to bad defenses.

Robert Griffin III - A prime candidate for ROY and OPOY. He's putting up gaudy stats, getting all of the goal line TDs and his team will likely not be in it at the end.

The Old Hats - Roethlisberger, Peyton, Brady - None has been amazing, but all 3 have been solid enough. Peyton had 3 ints against Atlanta, but still 8TD-3Int at this point, Brady and Roethlisberger are 7-1 and 8-1 respectively. Ryan is the leader thus far, but if he stumbles one of these three will probably be ready to steal it.

Aside from the standard 49ers predictions, how do you guys see the rest of the season going? AFC seems pretty set, while the NFC looks to be rather up in the air.

So, we're at the quasi(4/17) quarter pole for the regular-season, thought it'd be a nice moment to take a stroll around the league.

Tier 1 - Complete Teams

Tier 2 - Solid teams with an Issue

Tier 3 - The potential is there

Tier 4 - Not bad, but not good enough

Tier 5 - The Rest

Award Candidates

Robert Griffin III - A prime candidate for ROY and OPOY. He's putting up gaudy stats, getting all of the goal line TDs and his team will likely not be in it at the end.

Aside from the standard 49ers predictions, how do you guys see the rest of the season going? AFC seems pretty set, while the NFC looks to be rather up in the air.

The Extra Challenges

whistlingmountain — Fri, 28 Sep 2012 17:43:44 -0000

So, there was quite a bit of hubbub over the challenges the 49ers were able to use despite not having timeouts. I haven't re-watched the game and I was barely paying attention by the time the fun was really going, but if I understood correctly the first one went like this

Vikings Run Play

49ers immediately call last timeout to stop clock

Harbaugh notices there was a fumble, attempts to challenge, talks ref into allowing it after 5 minutes

When the review system was bought back into the NFL I remember this being allowed for some time. Then it was changed a couple years later with the reasoning being that they didn't want a team taking a timeout, spending 2 minutes looking at replays, then challenging and getting the timeout back.

It seems to me that there could easily be an exception to the rule under 3 minutes in the halves ( when teams are taking immediate timeouts but the under 2 minute challenges are not in place ) that you have some reasonable time after calling the timeout, say 30 seconds, to decide to challenge. Otherwise the rule is effectively penalizing teams for using the timeouts in the most efficient way by forcing them to put up a 2nd timeout to challenge or not be able to challenge at all.

Vikings Run Play

49ers immediately call last timeout to stop clock

Harbaugh notices there was a fumble, attempts to challenge, talks ref into allowing it after 5 minutes

Some Salary Info/Thoughts

whistlingmountain — Thu, 20 Sep 2012 14:23:20 -0000

Just playing with some of the random salary information from ninercaphell.com for this year and the next 2 years

Here are the total non-PS salary numbers

2012 - $135,352,809 ( 55 players, Haralson and Haggans are under salary but not on the 53 man roster )
They have the extra 17m or so from carry over from 2011 and it was basically all given to Willis.
Free Agents - Goldson 6.21, Sopoaga 4.96, Moss 2.5, Walker 2.01, Jacobs 1.58, Ginn 1.38, Grant 1.27, Haggans 990k, L Davis 925k, Gooden 705k, RJF 630k, Brock 545k

With so many draft picks, so little space, and several draft picks from this year on the PS pretty much all of these free agents are gone. Haralson probably cut and Manningham's 5m looms large if they have Jenkins sitting there in the wings. It's a fair amount of turnover, but they look prepared for it everywhere except at safety.

2013 - $118,025,161 ( 41 players )
The cap will be about 121m
Free Agents - J Smith 8.5m, Goodwin 5.01, Manningham 4.95, Whitner 4.8, Akers 3.6, Haralson 2.7, Brown 1.9, Bowman 805k, Dixon 660k, K Williams 650k Tukuafu 555k, Tolzein 555k, I Williams 555k, Dobbs 555k, Cox 555k, Backhtiari 555k

I hadn't realized Whitner's deal goes up to 4.8 next year. Makes me wonder if they cut Whitner to fit Goldson in. I still can not see them signing Goldson to a 5@7.5 type deal with 15 guaranteed.

I think we're likely to see a Smith extension that makes his 2013 number more friendly and a Bowman extension to go along with it. Gets more clouded after that. I'd hope that they are able to extend whichever defensive linemen projects work out. Cox and Brown could be important assets when looking forward at Rogers big cap number. Akers is already one of the highest ( if not the highest ) paid kicker, so his number should stay about the same if he's still healthy.

2014 - $84,214,455 ( 26 players )
The cap will be about 122m. This will be the year of extensions and youth. The effectiveness of the drafts between this year and 2014 will be very important in replacing quite a few players who will be gone. Free Agents - Alex Smith 8.75m, Crabtree 5.36m, Aldon Smith 4.58m, A Davis 3.94m, Iupati 2.96m, Spillman 1.55m, Kaepernick 1.52m, Jennings 1m, Culliver 795k, Hunter 755k, Kilgore 685k, Miller 660k, Celek 570k

Obviously turnover is the nature of the NFL. Roughly 1/4 of the team becomes a FA each of the next 3 off-seasons. Hard to gauge 2014 with that in mind.

Here are the salary payouts by position group.

season	posg	total	percent	players
2012	ILB	$20,334,590	15.02	4
Willis, Patrick - 17642288 Grant, Larry - 1265580 Bowman, NaVorro - 721142 Gooden, Tavares - 705580
2012	DL	$17,539,810	12.96	7
Smith, Justin - 6380580 Sopoaga, Isaac - 4960580 McDonald, Ray - 4155580 Jean Francois, Ricky - 631330 Tukuafu, Will - 470580 Williams, Ian - 470580 Dobbs, Demarcus - 470580
2012	WR	$13,134,250	9.70	6
Crabtree, Michael - 4864580 Manningham, Mario - 2555580 Moss, Randy - 2505580 Ginn Jr., Ted - 1380580 Jenkins, A.J. - 1262500 Williams, Kyle - 565430
2012	S	$12,644,118	9.34	5
Goldson, Dashon - 6212000 Whitner, Donte - 4388913 Spillman, C.J. - 1085580 McBath, Darcel - 540000 Robinson, Trenton - 417625
2012	QB	$10,896,353	8.05	3
Smith, Alex - 9255580 Kaepernick, Colin - 1170193 Tolzien, Scott - 470580
2012	TE	$10,423,826	7.70	3
Davis, Vernon - 8023246 Walker, Delanie - 2010580 Celek, Garrett - 390000
2012	OLB	$10,286,125	7.60	6
Smith, Aldon - 3274671 Brooks, Ahmad - 2855580 Haralson, Parys - 2755580 Haggans, Clark - 990000 Bakhtiari, Eric - 410294
2012	RB	$9,831,718	7.26	6
Gore, Frank - 6005580 Jacobs, Brandon - 1580580 James, LaMichael - 603250 Hunter, Kendall - 580385 Dixon, Anthony - 575730 Miller, Bruce - 486193
2012	CB	$8,951,806	6.61	5
Rogers, Carlos - 5505580 Brown, Tarell - 1809767 Culliver, Chris - 620299 Brock, Tramaine - 545580 Cox, Perrish - 470580
2012	G/C	$8,926,312	6.59	6
Goodwin, Jonathan - 3722247 Iupati, Mike - 2336580 Boone, Alex - 935580 Davis, Leonard - 925000 Kilgore, Daniel - 510655 Looney, Joe - 496250
2012	ST	$6,681,075	4.94	3
Akers, David - 3622247 Lee, Andy - 1907248 Jennings, Brian - 1151580
2012	OT	$5,702,826	4.21	2
Davis, Anthony - 3197246 Staley, Joe - 2505580

season	posg	total	percent	players
2013	DL	$14,415,000	12.21	5
Smith, Justin - 8500000 McDonald, Ray - 4250000 Dobbs, Demarcus - 555000 Tukuafu, Will - 555000 Williams, Ian - 555000
2013	WR	$13,537,147	11.47	4
Crabtree, Michael - 6359000 Manningham, Mario - 4950000 Jenkins, A.J. - 1578297 Williams, Kyle - 649850
2013	OLB	$13,442,909	11.39	3
Brooks, Ahmad - 6650000 Smith, Aldon - 3922909 Haralson, Parys - 2870000
2013	QB	$11,602,535	9.83	3
Smith, Alex - 9750000 Kaepernick, Colin - 1297535 Tolzien, Scott - 555000
2013	G/C	$10,767,492	9.12	5
Goodwin, Jonathan - 5016667 Iupati, Mike - 2629500 Boone, Alex - 1940000 Kilgore, Daniel - 595075 Looney, Joe - 586250
2013	CB	$10,267,031	8.70	4
Rogers, Carlos - 7100000 Brown, Tarell - 1907312 Culliver, Chris - 704719 Cox, Perrish - 555000
2013	TE	$8,918,666	7.56	2
Davis, Vernon - 8438666 Celek, Garrett - 480000
2013	ST	$8,817,667	7.47	3
Lee, Andy - 4050000 Akers, David - 3606667 Jennings, Brian - 1161000
2013	RB	$8,682,153	7.36	5
Gore, Frank - 6050000 James, LaMichael - 736585 Hunter, Kendall - 664805 Dixon, Anthony - 660150 Miller, Bruce - 570613
2013	S	$6,895,958	5.84	3
Whitner, Donte - 4833333 Spillman, C.J. - 1555000 Robinson, Trenton - 507625
2013	OT	$6,361,666	5.39	2
Davis, Anthony - 3566666 Staley, Joe - 2795000
2013	ILB	$4,316,937	3.66	2
Willis, Patrick - 3511375 Bowman, NaVorro - 805562

season	posg	total	percent	players
2014	OLB	$12,076,727	14.34	2
Brooks, Ahmad - 7500000 Smith, Aldon - 4576727
2014	QB	$10,280,457	12.21	2
Smith, Alex - 8750000 Kaepernick, Colin - 1530457
2014	CB	$8,644,719	10.27	2
Rogers, Carlos - 7850000 Culliver, Chris - 794719
2014	RB	$8,350,338	9.92	4
Gore, Frank - 6050000 James, LaMichael - 884920 Hunter, Kendall - 754805 Miller, Bruce - 660613
2014	TE	$7,636,666	9.07	2
Davis, Vernon - 7066666 Celek, Garrett - 570000
2014	OT	$7,335,266	8.71	2
Davis, Anthony - 3940266 Staley, Joe - 3395000
2014	WR	$7,253,094	8.61	2
Crabtree, Michael - 5359000 Jenkins, A.J. - 1894094
2014	ILB	$6,394,375	7.59	1
Willis, Patrick - 6394375
2014	G/C	$6,057,188	7.19	4
Iupati, Mike - 2955863 Boone, Alex - 1740000 Kilgore, Daniel - 685075 Looney, Joe - 676250
2014	DL	$4,600,000	5.46	1
McDonald, Ray - 4600000
2014	ST	$3,433,000	4.08	2
Lee, Andy - 2400000 Jennings, Brian - 1033000
2014	S	$2,152,625	2.56	2
Spillman, C.J. - 1555000 Robinson, Trenton - 597625

ILBs very expensive this year, then extrmely cheap next year, then probably back to being extremely expensive in 2014 when Bowman gets a large bonus
With Boone listed at guard, 49ers probably have some of the best bang for buck at OT in the league for all 3 years, even with the love/hate relationship many of us have with them.
The 49ers have the best or 2nd best punter, one of the best kickers, and probably the best long snapper ( who can tell? ), but man they are expensive!
While there could be some tough cuts of good players over the next couple of years to clear space for extensions and long-term winning, Gore is probably the ultimate example. I think we were all a little torn on whether to pay him last year and if so, how much. He's been a career 49er and a shining example of work ethic and success amid miserable records. He scheduled to make 6m in 2013, when Hunter may be just as good, and their 2nd year 2nd round pick may have still not entered a game. I have serious worries about how and when his departure goes down, don't want to see him disrespected, but I wouldn't want to see the 49ers hanging onto him for too long at the expense of extensions for key players going forward.

Just playing with some of the random salary information from ninercaphell.com for this year and the next 2 years

Here are the total non-PS salary numbers

I hadn't realized Whitner's deal goes up to 4.8 next year. Makes me wonder if they cut Whitner to fit Goldson in. I still can not see them signing Goldson to a 5@7.5 type deal with 15 guaranteed.

Obviously turnover is the nature of the NFL. Roughly 1/4 of the team becomes a FA each of the next 3 off-seasons. Hard to gauge 2014 with that in mind.

Here are the salary payouts by position group.

season	posg	total	percent	players
2012	ILB	$20,334,590	15.02	4
Willis, Patrick - 17642288 Grant, Larry - 1265580 Bowman, NaVorro - 721142 Gooden, Tavares - 705580
2012	DL	$17,539,810	12.96	7
Smith, Justin - 6380580 Sopoaga, Isaac - 4960580 McDonald, Ray - 4155580 Jean Francois, Ricky - 631330 Tukuafu, Will - 470580 Williams, Ian - 470580 Dobbs, Demarcus - 470580
2012	WR	$13,134,250	9.70	6
Crabtree, Michael - 4864580 Manningham, Mario - 2555580 Moss, Randy - 2505580 Ginn Jr., Ted - 1380580 Jenkins, A.J. - 1262500 Williams, Kyle - 565430
2012	S	$12,644,118	9.34	5
Goldson, Dashon - 6212000 Whitner, Donte - 4388913 Spillman, C.J. - 1085580 McBath, Darcel - 540000 Robinson, Trenton - 417625
2012	QB	$10,896,353	8.05	3
Smith, Alex - 9255580 Kaepernick, Colin - 1170193 Tolzien, Scott - 470580
2012	TE	$10,423,826	7.70	3
Davis, Vernon - 8023246 Walker, Delanie - 2010580 Celek, Garrett - 390000
2012	OLB	$10,286,125	7.60	6
Smith, Aldon - 3274671 Brooks, Ahmad - 2855580 Haralson, Parys - 2755580 Haggans, Clark - 990000 Bakhtiari, Eric - 410294
2012	RB	$9,831,718	7.26	6
Gore, Frank - 6005580 Jacobs, Brandon - 1580580 James, LaMichael - 603250 Hunter, Kendall - 580385 Dixon, Anthony - 575730 Miller, Bruce - 486193
2012	CB	$8,951,806	6.61	5
Rogers, Carlos - 5505580 Brown, Tarell - 1809767 Culliver, Chris - 620299 Brock, Tramaine - 545580 Cox, Perrish - 470580
2012	G/C	$8,926,312	6.59	6
Goodwin, Jonathan - 3722247 Iupati, Mike - 2336580 Boone, Alex - 935580 Davis, Leonard - 925000 Kilgore, Daniel - 510655 Looney, Joe - 496250
2012	ST	$6,681,075	4.94	3
Akers, David - 3622247 Lee, Andy - 1907248 Jennings, Brian - 1151580
2012	OT	$5,702,826	4.21	2
Davis, Anthony - 3197246 Staley, Joe - 2505580

season	posg	total	percent	players
2013	DL	$14,415,000	12.21	5
Smith, Justin - 8500000 McDonald, Ray - 4250000 Dobbs, Demarcus - 555000 Tukuafu, Will - 555000 Williams, Ian - 555000
2013	WR	$13,537,147	11.47	4
Crabtree, Michael - 6359000 Manningham, Mario - 4950000 Jenkins, A.J. - 1578297 Williams, Kyle - 649850
2013	OLB	$13,442,909	11.39	3
Brooks, Ahmad - 6650000 Smith, Aldon - 3922909 Haralson, Parys - 2870000
2013	QB	$11,602,535	9.83	3
Smith, Alex - 9750000 Kaepernick, Colin - 1297535 Tolzien, Scott - 555000
2013	G/C	$10,767,492	9.12	5
Goodwin, Jonathan - 5016667 Iupati, Mike - 2629500 Boone, Alex - 1940000 Kilgore, Daniel - 595075 Looney, Joe - 586250
2013	CB	$10,267,031	8.70	4
Rogers, Carlos - 7100000 Brown, Tarell - 1907312 Culliver, Chris - 704719 Cox, Perrish - 555000
2013	TE	$8,918,666	7.56	2
Davis, Vernon - 8438666 Celek, Garrett - 480000
2013	ST	$8,817,667	7.47	3
Lee, Andy - 4050000 Akers, David - 3606667 Jennings, Brian - 1161000
2013	RB	$8,682,153	7.36	5
Gore, Frank - 6050000 James, LaMichael - 736585 Hunter, Kendall - 664805 Dixon, Anthony - 660150 Miller, Bruce - 570613
2013	S	$6,895,958	5.84	3
Whitner, Donte - 4833333 Spillman, C.J. - 1555000 Robinson, Trenton - 507625
2013	OT	$6,361,666	5.39	2
Davis, Anthony - 3566666 Staley, Joe - 2795000
2013	ILB	$4,316,937	3.66	2
Willis, Patrick - 3511375 Bowman, NaVorro - 805562

season	posg	total	percent	players
2014	OLB	$12,076,727	14.34	2
Brooks, Ahmad - 7500000 Smith, Aldon - 4576727
2014	QB	$10,280,457	12.21	2
Smith, Alex - 8750000 Kaepernick, Colin - 1530457
2014	CB	$8,644,719	10.27	2
Rogers, Carlos - 7850000 Culliver, Chris - 794719
2014	RB	$8,350,338	9.92	4
Gore, Frank - 6050000 James, LaMichael - 884920 Hunter, Kendall - 754805 Miller, Bruce - 660613
2014	TE	$7,636,666	9.07	2
Davis, Vernon - 7066666 Celek, Garrett - 570000
2014	OT	$7,335,266	8.71	2
Davis, Anthony - 3940266 Staley, Joe - 3395000
2014	WR	$7,253,094	8.61	2
Crabtree, Michael - 5359000 Jenkins, A.J. - 1894094
2014	ILB	$6,394,375	7.59	1
Willis, Patrick - 6394375
2014	G/C	$6,057,188	7.19	4
Iupati, Mike - 2955863 Boone, Alex - 1740000 Kilgore, Daniel - 685075 Looney, Joe - 676250
2014	DL	$4,600,000	5.46	1
McDonald, Ray - 4600000
2014	ST	$3,433,000	4.08	2
Lee, Andy - 2400000 Jennings, Brian - 1033000
2014	S	$2,152,625	2.56	2
Spillman, C.J. - 1555000 Robinson, Trenton - 597625

ILBs very expensive this year, then extrmely cheap next year, then probably back to being extremely expensive in 2014 when Bowman gets a large bonus
With Boone listed at guard, 49ers probably have some of the best bang for buck at OT in the league for all 3 years, even with the love/hate relationship many of us have with them.
The 49ers have the best or 2nd best punter, one of the best kickers, and probably the best long snapper ( who can tell? ), but man they are expensive!
While there could be some tough cuts of good players over the next couple of years to clear space for extensions and long-term winning, Gore is probably the ultimate example. I think we were all a little torn on whether to pay him last year and if so, how much. He's been a career 49er and a shining example of work ethic and success amid miserable records. He scheduled to make 6m in 2013, when Hunter may be just as good, and their 2nd year 2nd round pick may have still not entered a game. I have serious worries about how and when his departure goes down, don't want to see him disrespected, but I wouldn't want to see the 49ers hanging onto him for too long at the expense of extensions for key players going forward.

Oh what could have been.. the rest of the schedule

whistlingmountain — Sun, 31 Oct 2010 22:22:14 -0000

So, I'm pretty adamant in my opinion that the 49ers will not win the West ( oh if they had only pulled out at least 1 if not 2 of their 4 ridiculous losses ).

Since I'm sure the 49ers will win their way out of the Luck sweepstakes*, thought I'd take a look at what I can hope for going forward in terms of the division race.

Current Standings
Seahawks 4-2
Rams 4-4
Cardinals 3-3
49ers 2-6

Projected Standings for week 8 ( Cards and Seahawks losing )
Seahawks 4-3
Rams 4-4
Cardinals 3-4
49ers 2-6

Week 9 - Byes

Seahawks vs Giants - An interesting match up in Seattle, Giants coming off bye. I think it's a good match up for the Giants defensive line and would expect them to win. Edit: Side note, I do not ever root for a player to get injured, but the Giants pass rush vs the banged up Seattle LTs.. Hasselbeck going down for a stretch might be the rest of the division's best hope at overtaking them.

Cardinals @ Vikings - Really feels like the kind of game where the Cardinals get 3 interceptions and win by 1, but for the sake of argument we'll say Minnesota is better and wins.

Seahawks 4-4
Rams 4-4
Cardinals 3-5
49ers 2-6

Week 10 - Divisional Matchups

Seahawks at Cardinals - We'll obviously be rooting for Arizona in this match up, not just because Seattle would be in the division lead, but because the 49ers still have 2 games to control against the Cardinals. Still, I think Seattle wins just about every match up vs the Cardinals, and pulls this game out.

Rams @ 49ers - Both teams come off bye ( 49ers come off of London + Bye ), Rams haven't fared well on the road, but the 49ers haven't fared well anywhere. I think it'll come down to 1 or 2 drives in the 4th quarter, for the sake of projections being worthwhile I'll give the 49ers the win.

Seahawks 5-4
Rams 4-5
Cardinals 3-6
49ers 3-6

Week 11 - The Letdown

Cardinals @ Chiefs - KC is a better team at home, but hey, they just won a game they shouldn't have against the Bills at home. Regardless, KC should be big favorites in this game and it would be an upset if they lose.

Seahawks @ Saints - I think I'll have a better idea of NO after tonight's game, but I would still consider them better than Seattle. I do think this is going to be a toss-up type game though. I'm going to give the Saints the win as I will assume that in 3 weeks, their running game is working better with Bush back.

Falcons @ Rams - Upset special, I give the Rams the upper-hand here, back at home where they are thriving. The Falcons with another one of their hiccup games.

Bucs @ 49ers - After the 49ers big win against the Rams, and looking forward to their Monday night game against the Cardinals, they letdown here and play an uuuugly game. They have to win it to even be remotely alive, so I give them the win ( but I assume that if things reach this point, I will fear this game like I feared the game against Seattle last year )

Seahawks 5-5
Rams 5-5
49ers 4-6
Cardinals 3-7

Week 12 - Primetime

Cheifs @ Seahawks - Seattle at home, KC gets some of what its opponents face every week. Seattle takes it.

Rams @ Broncos - Rams pull it out on the road.

49ers @ Cardinals - I'm sure the folks at the NFL scheduling committee were expecting better things. The 49ers slug around in the first half, but win by double digits as the Cardinals deal with their dreadful QBs.

Seahawks 6-5
Rams 6-5
49ers 5-6
Cardinals 3-8

Week 13 - The Buzzsaw

49ers @ Packers - See Above.

Panthers @ Seahawks - Matt Moore in Seattle...

Rams @ Cardinals - Cardinals pull it together for a home victory.

Seahawks 7-5
Rams 6-6
49ers 5-7
Cardinals 4-8

Week 14 - A New Hope

Rams @ Saints - Rams fall on the road.

Broncos @ Cardinals - The Broncos nightmare continues.

Seahawks @ 49ers - 49ers season mathematically on the line. For the sake of continuing this the 49ers pull out a squeeker ( Keep in mind at this point the 49ers will have gone 5-1 in a 6 game stretch, I do not think this team can do that, so.. you see why I think they are eliminated already ).

Seahawks 7-6
Rams 6-7
49ers 6-7
Cardinals 5-8

Week 15 - The Short Week Headache

49ers @ Chargers - On Thursday night the 49ers go against the Chargers at home. They give up multiple touchdowns in the first quarter and never make a game of it.

Cardinals @ Panthers - Cardinals defense feasts on Panthers QB errors.

Chiefs @ Rams - The Chiefs go into St. Louis and go home with a victory.

Falcons @ Seahawks - The Seahawks pull off a huge victory, but 49ers still mathematically alive as they have 1 division loss and the Seahawks have 2.

Seahawks 8-6
Rams 6-8
49ers 6-8
Cardinals 6-8

Week 16 - Oh If Only

At this point fans are at each other throats with cries of "if we had only" and "give Sing another season!"

Cowboys @ Cardinals - Cowboys finish off the Cardinals on Saturday

49ers @ Rams - 49ers win it late.

Bucs @ Seahawks - Seahawks clinch division title

Seahawks 9-6
49ers 7-8
Rams 6-9
Cardinals 6-9

Week 17 - The Winter is Eternal

Rams @ Seahawks - Seahawks rest some players and Rams pull out win.

Cardinals @ 49ers - 49ers continue their recent late season meaningless games success.

Seahawks 9-7
49ers 8-8
Rams 7-9
Cardinals 6-10

Another long off-season.

How do you think it will play out?

*-The Luck Sweepstakes, this just occurring to me but, would there be a worse case scenario than the Cowboys finishing badly enough to trade up and get him ( A Texas native ).

So, I'm pretty adamant in my opinion that the 49ers will not win the West ( oh if they had only pulled out at least 1 if not 2 of their 4 ridiculous losses ).

Since I'm sure the 49ers will win their way out of the Luck sweepstakes*, thought I'd take a look at what I can hope for going forward in terms of the division race.

Current Standings
Seahawks 4-2
Rams 4-4
Cardinals 3-3
49ers 2-6

Projected Standings for week 8 ( Cards and Seahawks losing )
Seahawks 4-3
Rams 4-4
Cardinals 3-4
49ers 2-6

Cardinals @ Vikings - Really feels like the kind of game where the Cardinals get 3 interceptions and win by 1, but for the sake of argument we'll say Minnesota is better and wins.

Seahawks 4-4
Rams 4-4
Cardinals 3-5
49ers 2-6

Week 10 - Divisional Matchups

Seahawks 5-4
Rams 4-5
Cardinals 3-6
49ers 3-6

Week 11 - The Letdown

Falcons @ Rams - Upset special, I give the Rams the upper-hand here, back at home where they are thriving. The Falcons with another one of their hiccup games.

Seahawks 5-5
Rams 5-5
49ers 4-6
Cardinals 3-7

Week 12 - Primetime

Cheifs @ Seahawks - Seattle at home, KC gets some of what its opponents face every week. Seattle takes it.

Rams @ Broncos - Rams pull it out on the road.

Seahawks 6-5
Rams 6-5
49ers 5-6
Cardinals 3-8

Week 13 - The Buzzsaw

49ers @ Packers - See Above.

Panthers @ Seahawks - Matt Moore in Seattle...

Rams @ Cardinals - Cardinals pull it together for a home victory.

Seahawks 7-5
Rams 6-6
49ers 5-7
Cardinals 4-8

Week 14 - A New Hope

Rams @ Saints - Rams fall on the road.

Broncos @ Cardinals - The Broncos nightmare continues.

Seahawks 7-6
Rams 6-7
49ers 6-7
Cardinals 5-8

Week 15 - The Short Week Headache

49ers @ Chargers - On Thursday night the 49ers go against the Chargers at home. They give up multiple touchdowns in the first quarter and never make a game of it.

Cardinals @ Panthers - Cardinals defense feasts on Panthers QB errors.

Chiefs @ Rams - The Chiefs go into St. Louis and go home with a victory.

Falcons @ Seahawks - The Seahawks pull off a huge victory, but 49ers still mathematically alive as they have 1 division loss and the Seahawks have 2.

Seahawks 8-6
Rams 6-8
49ers 6-8
Cardinals 6-8

Week 16 - Oh If Only

At this point fans are at each other throats with cries of "if we had only" and "give Sing another season!"

Cowboys @ Cardinals - Cowboys finish off the Cardinals on Saturday

49ers @ Rams - 49ers win it late.

Bucs @ Seahawks - Seahawks clinch division title

Seahawks 9-6
49ers 7-8
Rams 6-9
Cardinals 6-9

Week 17 - The Winter is Eternal

Rams @ Seahawks - Seahawks rest some players and Rams pull out win.

Cardinals @ 49ers - 49ers continue their recent late season meaningless games success.

Seahawks 9-7
49ers 8-8
Rams 7-9
Cardinals 6-10

Another long off-season.

How do you think it will play out?

*-The Luck Sweepstakes, this just occurring to me but, would there be a worse case scenario than the Cowboys finishing badly enough to trade up and get him ( A Texas native ).

Coaching Prospects 2011 Cont. - Brian Schottenheimer

whistlingmountain — Wed, 27 Oct 2010 16:59:23 -0000

This is a continuation of my previous post going through every offensive coordinator in the league, as well as some out of work coaches and college ( only Harbaugh )

http://www.ninersnation.com/2010/10/23/1769557/offensive-head-coaching-prospects-for-2011

Now we're going to look at my top candidates individually in depth, starting with Brian Schottenheimer.

This is a continuation of my previous post going through every offensive coordinator in the league, as well as some out of work coaches and college ( only Harbaugh )

http://www.ninersnation.com/2010/10/23/1769557/offensive-head-coaching-prospects-for-2011

Now we're going to look at my top candidates individually in depth, starting with Brian Schottenheimer.

Brian is the son of Marty, and I don't think you can over-value how much it helps to be in a professional football family. He just turned 37, which I think is in that prime range of head coach candidate ( 35-45 ). His playing history was as a quarterback in high-school, then as a starter at Kansas and a back-up at Florida. Ordinarily I'd say being a QB in college is a good thing, but at Florida under Spurrier I wouldn't consider it a plus.

He was a generic "assistant coach" with the Rams in 97 and Chiefs in 98, before returning to college as a generic assistant coach with Syracuse and USC. In 2001 he was hired by Marty to be the QB coach with Washington.This was Marty's only year in Washington and thus also Brian's. I think we all remember the horrible start and great finish.

Washington 2001 - QB Coach

The year before was Norv Turner's last year ( he was fired and they had an interim coach for part of the season ), they ranked 24th in points and 11th in yards ( a staple of Norv's offenses that fail in big situations ). They used QBs Brad Johnson and Jeff George combining for a 3900 yards and a 77 rating.

In 2001 the Redskins dumped Johnson and brought in Tony Banks. Not a great move, he played nearly every snap ( George and Graham ( lol ) were the backups ). They combined for 2700 yards, a 71 rating, just 28th in yards and points.They had 8 games in which they scored 14 or less, and 12 games in which they passed for less than 200 yards. Both abysmal.

This was his first year as a position coach, and there was a lot of turmoil as well as a pretty horrific QB.

San Diego 2002 - 2005 - QB Coach

San Diego swooped up Marty in 2002 and he brought along his staff. The prior year the Chargers were 14th in yards and 11th in points, so they already had some offensive talent brewing. Flutie played nearly every snap as the team put up 3700 yards and a 73 rating. In 2002 Brees took over, and here's how the offensive numbers went from there.

2002 - 20th points, 16th yards, 3300/76.5, 5 games 14 and under, 9 games under 200 yards passing

2003 - 16th points, 14th yards, 3200/73, 7 games 14 and under, 7 games under 200 yards passing

2004 - 3rd points, 10th yards, 3500/102, 1 game 14 and under, 5 games under 200 yards passing

2005 - 5th points, 10th yards, 3700/89.7, 2 games 14 and under, 7 games under 200 yards passing

The Chargers were really in the midst of becoming a juggernaut in this time. In the following year Brees left, and Rivers stepped in without missing a beat. So, how much of Brees' success do you give to Schottenheimer? Probably not too much, but he does receive some credit as he was primarily in charge of developing him from a spread college offense.

Jets 2006 - Present, Offensive Coordinator

In 2005 Marty was fired yet again, but Brian kept moving up. He jumped to the Jets with the new Mangini regime. The year before was Herm Edwards last year and consisted of QBs Bollinger, Testaverde, and the injured Pennington. It was a mess finishing near the bottom of the league in offense ( 29th/31st ). The year earlier with a healthy Pennington, things weren't so bad, 17th/12th. We'll use this as the better example as what team wouldn't suffer without the starting QB. They had 5 games with 14 or less, 10 games with less than 200 yards passing, 3200 yards and a 90 rating. A dominant defense helped carry the "manage the game" offense ( + 17 turnovers ).

When Brian took over, the offense returned back to there ( the scoring numbers weren't as good as the take away wasn't the crazy +17 ).

2006 - 18th/25th, 5 games 14 or under, 10 games with less than 200 passing, 3300 yards 82 rating ( +0 )

2007 - 25th/26th, 9 games 14 or under, 8 games with less than 200 passing, 3300 yards, 74 rating ( - 4 )

Favre takes over

2008 - 9th/16th, 4 games 14 or under, 7 games less than 200, 3500 yards, 80 rating ( -1 )

Sanchez Takes over ( rookie )

2009 - 17th/20th, 4 games 14 or under, 14 games less than 200, 2600 yards, 62 rating (+1 )

2010 - 4th/17th, of 7 games, 1 game 14 or under, 4 games less than 200, 1100 yards, 88 rating

These were some seriously ugly offenses over the years, which makes me a bit wary about him. He seems to have that same ideology of his father to run the ball, play turnover free offense, and pull games out in the end. It's a fine strategy for producing a string of .500 teams, but in the last 20 years only two teams have won a super bowl with this strategy and both were in the dog days of the early 2000s ( Ravens/Bucs ).

The Intangibles

When I watch the Jets, it's very apparent that Schottenheimer is a master of the details. They meticulously move players around and combine patterns to get specific match ups. They have a lot of simple plays that focus on two routes to make it easy for Sanchez to go first, or check to second, hitting their breaks at the appropriate time for the throws.

That kind of skill can't be overlooked ( and is quickly and easily noticeable as missing around most of the league ).

The Verdict

Schottenheimer is a quality coaching prospect and there's the legitimate possibility that once he is back in a situation with a good qb in an offense they're comfortable with ( Brees years 3/4 in san diego, Sanchez in 2011/2012 ) that they'll be firing on all cylinders. Some team will take this gamble before it is proven as I think he is hired this off-season as a head coach. He has interviewed each of the last two years only to be beaten out in the final running by guys like John Harbaugh.

I don't think the 49ers would be up for that risk, but if things fell in a certain way I would not be upset with his hiring. His style fits the 49ers personnel, so it wouldn't require any kind of massive roster turnover.

Offensive Head Coaching Prospects for 2011

whistlingmountain — Sat, 23 Oct 2010 17:55:05 -0000

A look around the NFL's play callers, offensive coordinators, ordered by scoring per game as of week 7.
I'm estimating much of the experience years, they should be within 1 or 2 years, but probably not all exact.

Format:
Team
    Play Caller [age], Where From
    Offensive Coordinator[age] ( years as at NFL ), Where From if Not the PC
    Rank in Yards per Game
    QB ( years as for team )

    My Thoughts

    # - Will not be a candidate
    ## - Would be surprising
    ### - Could be interviewed, perhaps in the mix
    #### - Will be interviewed, in the mix
    ##### - In the serious running

    * - Terrible Candidate
    ** - Bad Hire
    *** - Not a bad hire, but could do better
    **** - Good Hire
    ***** - Great Hire

1.Patriots
    Bill O'Brien [40] - GTech, Maryland, Duke, [12 in college] Patriots [4th with Pats]
    None
    10th
    Tom Brady ( 10 )

    O'Brien was the OC with GTech and with Duke before jumping to the Patriots as an assistant and then WR and QB coach. He's an intriguing option and part of me believes that Belichick purposely did not give him the title of offensive coordinator so that he could keep him a couple more years than the brutal carousel the Patriots have experienced lately.

    I don't think he'll be jumping this year or next.

    ###
    **

2.Colts
    Tom Moore [72]

    I'm not going to do much here, Tom Moore is 72.

    #
    *

3. Tenn
    Mike Heimerdinger [58], Tons of College, Denver, Tennessee, Jets, Tennessee
    [Same] (11), 2000-2004,2006-Present with Titans, Duke & Rice
    26th
    Vince Young ( 3 )

    I am not a huge fan of Heimerdinger, he runs a ball control offense that goes hand in hand with a field position defense. I generally call these "opportunistic" offenses, ones that take advantage of certain situations but are otherwise conservative. I do not want the next 49ers mind to be like this.

    ###
    **

4. Jets
    Brian Schottenheimer [37], 4 years of College ( assistant ), QB coach for 5 with Wash/San under Marty, 4 with Jets
    [Same] (5), 2006-Present with Jets
    17th
    Mark Sanchez ( 2 )

    I go back and forth on Brian ( son of Marty ), I've always hated Marty. I think he personifies the conservative "we'll pull it out in the 4th quarter" old-school attitude that does not consistently win divisions, playoff games, or super bowls. That being said, Brian is not Marty, he is extremely knowledgeable about offense and it's fun to watch him slide pieces around the board to get mismatches and try for big plays. I also think he has gotten the absolute most out of Sanchez thus far.

    ####
    ***

5. Chargers
    Norv Turner [58], Bunch of College and Pros
    Clarence Shelmon [58] (4), Bunch of College, Bunch of NFL as RB Coach
    1st
    Philip Rivers ( 7 )

    I think we all know of Norv. Has anyone heard of Clarence Shelmon? Not much to see here, an extremely talented team offensively, they have produced through different coaches.

    #
    * ( Shelmon, not Turner )

6. Eagles
    Andy Reid [52], 10 years of College, 20 in Pros
    Marty Mornhinweg [48], 10 in college, 15 in Pros
    4th
    Kolb/Vick (1)

    I really like Morninweg as an OC, and the 49ers could do worse than him as a HC. However, I really really don't see that happening, there's just too great a risk of embarrassment. I realize that any logical fan would want that to be the last thing on the owner's mind, but in reality, it is likely in every decision they make now. No one in the building has the rings or years to be trusted through any more failures.

    ###
    ***

7. Texans
    Rick Dennison [52], 95-2008 with Broncos, 2009+ with Texans
    [same] (4), 3 years with Denver, 2010 with Texans
    5th
    Matt Schaub (4)

    Definitely have my eye on Dennison, but I was never all that impressed with him in Denver. I think he's a middle of the road coach. The 49ers could do worse. I do think the Texans ( like the Chargers ) are a turn-key set of players, they produced before him, and they'll produce after he's gone.

    ####
    ***

8. Lions
    Scott Linehan [47], 12 in College, 9 in Pros
    [same] ( 9 ), Vikings, Dolphins, Rams, Lions
    14th
    Stafford (2)

    A pretty good offensive mind, absolutely failed as a HC.

    ##
    **

9. Packers
    Mike McCarthy [46], 3 in college, 17 in pros
    Joe Philbin [49] (4), 2007- with Packers as OC, history is 16 years in college, 8 in pros
    13th
    Rodgers (3)

    I don't know much about Philbin

    ##
    ?

10. Steelers
    Bruce Arians [58], 10 in college, 22 in pros
    [same] (7), A few years in college, Cleveland 2001-2003, Steelers 2007-
    28th
    Roethlisberger (7)

    From everything I glean from interviews, most of the Steelers production in the passing play comes from a playground style extension of the called plays. That's not something you can rely on with just any QB or just any WRs.

    ###
    **

11. Giants
    Kevin Gilbride [59], 12 in college, 20 in pros
    [same] (14), With a bunch of teams, 2004- with Giants
    7th
    Eli Manning (7)

    I come from a family of Giants fans, so I follow them pretty closely. I do not think Gilbride would make a good HC. I'm also not a huge fan of the way he calls a game.

    ###
    **

12. Falcons
    Mike Mularkey [49], 16 in pros
    [same] (9), Steelers, Bills, Dolphins, Falcons 2008-
    9th
    Matt Ryan (3)

    I'm not personally the biggest fan of Mularkey, I think he falls into that "play to the level of your opponent" offensive style. Also don't think he's a legitimate candidate for the Yorks like Morninweg after his over-his-head performance as Bills HC.

    ###
    **

13. Saints
    Sean Peyton [47], 8 in college, 14 in pros
    Pete Carmichael Jr. [39] (2), as OC 2009- with Saints, History: 6 in college, 10 in pros
    8th
    Drew Brees (5)

    Peyton sometimes seems like a genius and sometimes looks like a fool. I'm not sure which of his traits his understudy would have. Carmichael took over for Doug Marrone who left to take over Syracuse, I doubt he's all that experienced or ready to be an OC let alone a HC.

    #
    *

14. Chiefs
    Todd Haley [43], 10 in pros
    Charlie Weis [54] (9), Jets, Pats, Chiefs, History: 25 years in pros and that ND stint
    18th
    Matt Cassel(2)

    Haley and Weis actually split play-calling ( at least that's what they say ). They're both superb play callers. Weis has no chance of being an nfl head coach again for at least a few years ( and I really doubt he'd ever want to be at this point, he didn't handle the stress well )

    #
    *

15. Broncos
    Josh McDaniels [34], 10 in pros
    Mike McCoy [38] (2), Brocos 2009-, History: 11 in pros
    6th
    Kyle Orton(2)

    I know nothing about McCoy and what his actual job entails with Denver. They have no running game, but are consistently hitting on deep passes.

    #
    *

16. Cowboys
    Jason Garett [44], 6 in Pros
    [same](4), Cowboys 2007-
    3rd
    Tony Romo (5)

    Garett always reminds me of Sean Peyton in how he calls a game. I think there is potential in him in that aspect, but I do not think he has the same personality as Peyton that allows him to be a HC.

    ###
    **

17. Bengals
    Bob Bratkowski [55], 10 in college, 18 in pros
    [same] (14), Cinci 2001- Seahawks, 95-98
    11th
    Carson Palmer (7)

    Another coordinator that I'm just not a huge fan of how he calls games, they're very inconsistent and have a really hard time sustaining drives.

    ##
    *

18. Raiders
    ...

    moving along.

19. Seahawks
    Jeremy Bates[34], 8 pros, 1 college
    [same] (1) Seahawks 2010-
    27th
    Hasselbeck (10)

    Carroll brought Bates with him from USC, this is his first year calling plays at the NFL and they haven't been great. Definitely someone to keep an eye on though in 2 or 3 years.

    ##
    **

20. Redskins
    Mike Shanahan[58], 8 college, 26 pros
    Kyle Shanahan[31] (3), Houston 2008-2009, Washington 2010-, History: 7 in Pros
    15th
    McNabb(1)

    Kyle is perhaps the most intruiging coaching prospect for me, he came into Houston the year after Schaub had come in and really turned that offense around. Son of a great offensive mind, there is a 100% chance he will be a HC somewhere someday ( my guess is that he will eventually take over for Mike in Washington while he slowly gets more and more responsibility from him in the meantime. ). I don't think the 49ers have the trust from the fans enough or just the sheer ownership power to hire a 31 year old HC. Wouldn't be shocked for him to start seeing more HC interviews this off season though.

    ###
    ***

21. Bears
    Mike Martz [59], 15 college, 18 pros
    [same] (11), Rams 99-05, Lions 06-07, 49ers, Bears
    29th
    Cutler(2)

    We all now Martz, runs a system that can only really be functional with certain QBs and WRs. Gets QBs injured, doesn't deal with other opinions well.

    #
    *

23. Ravens
    Cam Cameron [49], 16 college, 9 pros
    [same] (9), Chargers 2002-2006, Dolphins, Ravens 2008-
    16th
    Flacco(3)

    Another guy who looked great with the turnkey Chargers, but has looked ok ( at best ) since. I thought he'd mesh well with the defensive head coach style the 49ers ( and Ravens ) run, so far he absolutely has. I wouldn't want him as the HC though, and I can't imagine the fans or ownership would either. I think even the Baltimore players ( despite winning ) are getting frustrated by the conservative atmosphere.

    they also have Hue Jackson, but I think he needs to be an OC before being a HC candidate.

    ##
    **

24. Dolphins
    Dan Henning [68]

    I'll stop right here, 68 is too old.

25. Cardinals
    Ken Whisenhunt [48], 2 in college, 13 in pros
    [same]

    Stopping early again, Whisenhunt calls the plays and is the offensive coordinator. There are no candidates to look at here.

    #
    *

26. Bills
    Curtis Modkins [?], 6 in collge, 3 in pros
    [same] (1), Bills 2010-
    30th
    Ryan Fitzpatrick

    Yea, I'm not sure who he is or what even qualified him for this position. Definitely not an option at this point.

    #
    *

27. Vikings
    Brad Childress[54], 17 college, 11 pros
    Darrell Bevell[40], History: 3 college, 11 pros
    24th
    Brett Favre(2)

    Bevell is a former QB, was an assistant with the Pack under Sherman, and now with Childress. I don't really consider either of them great teachers, so I don't consider him a candidate right now.

    ##
    *

28. Rams
    Pat Shurmur[45], 11 pros
    [same] (2), Rams 2009-
    20th
    Bradford(1)

    Shurmur is a very interesting candidate, 9 years under Andy Reid as QB coach. There is a 100% chance he is eventually a head-coach somewhere, just a question of where and when. He's done a great job with Bradford already. I don't know much about his personality and whether it would apply well as a HC.

    ####
    ***

29. Bucs
    Greg Olson[47], ???
    [same] (3) Bucs 2008-
    22nd
    Freeman(2)

    Another candidate with very little info. Can't imagine he'd be a candidate.

    #
    *

30. 49ers
    Mike Johnson[43]

    Even if the 49ers offense turned around, I still don't see how they'd keep Singletary. At that point perhaps they interview Johnson as one of the candidates.

    ##
    *

31. Browns
    Brian Daboll[35], 11 pros
    [same] (2), Browns 2009-
    23rd
    McCoy(1)

    A promising candidate that Mangini has pulled with him from the Patriots staff in the earl 2000s. Hasn't shown enough in Cleveland yet, but could be because of a serious lack of offensive talent.

    ##
    **

32. Panthers
    Jeff Davidson[43], pros 15 years
    [same] (4), Panthers 2007-
    32nd
    Moore(2)

    Davidson has run a 1 dimensional offense even when he had receiving threats and relied heavily on Delhomme and Smith to manufacture a passing game on the fly. An absolutely horrific offense at this point.

    #
    *

Out of Work Head Coaches

The 49ers are not the Cowboys, Giants, Redskins, Patriots, or Jets. They don't have pockets flush with cash, they don't own ( or even share ) a massive east coast media market. They have a long history of hiring first time head-coaches. So, don't get your hopes up for any of these guys ( not that I think there are many even worth getting your hopes up for ).

Parcells:
    He will never be a coach again, move on.
    #

Holgren:
    He will never be a head coach again, move on.
    #

Cowher:
    He's not going to move to the west coast, he's going to command a huge salary with high paid coordinators. IF he comes back at all it will be with the Giants or Cowboys. I'd say he isn't going to come back ( because of his wife's death ), but if he does it'd be with the Giants where he can have power and money.
    ##

Tony Dungy:
    Really? Seriously? Do any fans really want Tony Dungy to be the head coach? Too old, too soft, relied much much too heavily on Peyton Manning in the 2nd half of his career. He was a really great coach for about 4 years with Tampa.
    #
    *

Marty Schottenheimer:
    Yes, he won a lot in San Diego, so has Norv, big deal. If you give Schottenheimer a team with talent they will produce wins, but they will always play to the level of their competition, looks great when they pull out a few close games in a row, then terrible when they don't. His 5-13 playoff record is a shining example of how this philosophy works in the playoffs.
    ##
    *

Jon Gruden:
    There are many good things about Gruden, he's a great strategist, makes good adjustments in-game, he's 100% all-in with what he is doing, he's still young enough to live and breathe football. He has lived on the west coast before and I don't think he'd command the kind of salary some of the other big names would. His one fatal flaw of course is that he has not developed or found a QB.
    #####
    ****

Brian Billick
    In my opinion Billick is a very good analyst, and a pretty poor head coach. It would be one thing if he wasn't really given a chance to prove his value as a head coach, but he had eight years. It's hard for me to believe that failing at producing a decent offense in 8 years with a good GM would turn around with the 49ers in a year or two. The second thing, is that he's 56. Coaches really start to go down once they pass their mid 50's simply on not being able to put in the time and effort.
    ##
    **

College Head Coaches

Jim Harbaugh:
    He seems to be THE college candidate this year. Stanford outperforms its talent on both sides of the ball, he has a loud/energetic personality that the successful young coaches in the NFL have all had. He had a long career as an NFL QB, comes from a football family, and his brother is winning with the Ravens. Runs a pro-style offense. He will get interviewed by many NFL teams this off-season and the 49ers will be one of them. He is my #1 candidate, but if Jerry Jones comes in and offers 10mil/yr...
    #####
    *****

Summary

Likihood to get Interviewed
##### - Gruden, Harbaugh
#### - Dennison, B. Schottenheimer, Shurmur
### - O'Brien, K. Shanahan, Mornhinweg, Garett, Gilbride, Arians, Mularkey

( These are all white coaches, I'm not sure who the minority candidate(s) would be at the moment, but will add them in as I find them ).

My Personal Ranking of them as potential HCs
***** - Harbaugh
**** - Gruden
*** - B. Schottenheimer, Shurmur, Dennison, Mornhinweg, Shanahan

I'll be adding more in depth details and performance history of these candidates moving forward, who else would you like to see?

Thoughts and Musings 6 weeks into the season

whistlingmountain — Sat, 23 Oct 2010 02:33:42 -0000

The Defense
-----------------

The Key - Going into the season my #1 concern with the 49ers defense was that they had no consistent pass rusher. This still seems to be the biggest issue. I realize the secondary is inexperienced and thus prone to mistakes, but it really feels like when the going gets tough, the game hinges on the defense's ability to get pressure ( and they don't ).

They seem to exude the feeling that IF the 49ers offense comes together for a game and scores 28, that the opposing offense will start throwing more, and more aggressively, and the defense will be exposed further. This causing people to have that "Oh God when the offense has it, the defense doesn't" type of feeling. When in reality, the defense never had it.

The 49ers do not pressure the opposing QBs enough, their 2 OLBs are not pass rushers and I see no way for this to turn around as long as they are the 2 "every-down" guys ( I realize they bring in LaBoy in 3rd and longs and Brooks rotates in at times ). Brooks lack of serious playing time this year has been disappointing, I don't have a play counter, but I hope to see him in for more plays for Haralson.

Slow Hips - I can't believe I'm saying this, but Mays is playing much much better than I thought he was going to. I will eat my crow on this one ( obviously I still wish Nate Allen fell to 49, but the 49ers could have done much worse than Mays ).

Juke Box - Bowman, my god, if he gets juked out of his shoes trying to make a tackle 6 yards short of the first down on 3rd down one more time I am going to punch through a wall. Can someone please tell him to just accept 3 more yards on the end of the run when they have to get 3 more than that. I liked what I saw from him in the pre-season, and I really hope he can develop quickly this year as he will be getting a ton of playing time later this year and in the future, regardless of scheme.

Grasping at Air - It's frustrating that on at least a dozen occasions this year, our defensive players have beaten their blocker, had a shot at the QB, only to jump at the QB from 2 yards away and miss. This happened twice against the Raiders, once by McDonald that caused a roll out by Campbell that I thought for sure was going to result in a big play, but thankfully did not. Last week Lawson had a sack in the red-zone on 3rd down and came up with air, allowing Kolb to roll out and throw a TD. Huge mistakes you can not make. I consider this to be a symptom of the "need the big play," disease that has infected the 49ers for the past few years on both sides of the ball. Guys just coming out of their comfort zone a bit too much because they feel like the team needs them to make the big play, when everyone just making the ok plays would be plenty. It causes fumbles, missed tackles ( see Bowman above ), dropped passes, etc etc

The Straw Wall - Franklin is not playing at a pro-bowl level this year. I don't know how it's going to affect his next contract, but I never thought he was going to get a huge offer at his age and niche ability.

Sopoaga has also struggled at his very strong run defense ( though he had a good game against Oakland ), he hasn't been horrible, but the difference between Franklin and Sopoaga has been noticeable and has lightened their run defense enough to no longer be dominant against the run.

The Offense
-------------------------

The Seive - Going into the season I knew there were going to be consistency issues on the line. In all the optimism most fans had they thought they were going to roll into this season with a top 5 OL, but many were ready to watch some bad play for at least the first half of the season. It has been worse than I expected. Baas has been a pleasant surprise at Center, he hasn't played great, but he's played well ( similar to how Staley has played in the past ). Staley has looked injured out there, but he's had no injury listed ( that I've noticed ). Iupati and Davis both look promising despite rookie mistakes. And then there's Rachal.. Rachal has no business starting for an NFL team. Now, maybe Snyder doesn't have any business starting either, but Snyder played better than Rachal when he was out there. Why is Rachal still in?

I know there's a camp that thinks Heitmann is a sack of ****, but I've always thought he plays at a consistent ok level, and that that is good enough for now. I hope he gets back on the field and Rachal can sit on the bench for a year before the 49ers cut him lose. Bust.

The Gazelles.. err.. the Donkeys - It's really hard to judge the receivers on the 49ers, more so than on just about every other team in the NFL. They tend to run the same patterns, out of the same formations, leaving them tightly covered. On top of this Smith is usually a little out of his comfort zone, and isn't a on-the-spot-accurate QB. I've come to the conclusion though that Crabtree is a 1a/1b receiver, and Morgan is a #3/#4 receiver. Crabtree can't consistently beat #1 corners, and Morgan can't consistently beat #2 corners. This causes a HUGE problem with how much they can scare the defense.

The Engine - Frank Gore is a really good running back. He does everything really well. My only complaint with him is that when is getting stopped he gets the "need the big play" syndrome and stays up too long or carries the ball a little loose in order to get that big play. He lacks the patience that you only really get when you've won or you're winning. The whole team does.

I'm not as frustrated as some people were that Westbrook hasn't seen much action,

The Pistons - Vernon Davis and Delaine Walker are the two players on the offense that make it something unique, something potentially powerful. They abused this with Walker for about 5 minutes before he was injured, and have just now ( in the 4th quarter in week 5, and 2nd half in week 6 ) started to attack with VD. The latter is RIDICULOUS. There is absolutely no reason why VD should not have 2 targets a quarter AT MINIMUM. VD should get on the phone to Mike Johnson every time the 49ers go 3 and out and he doesn't get a target, or go an entire quarter without a target and say *** ARE YOU DOING. They should have a half a dozen plays in their playbook that are specifically designed to get him a mismatch THAT WEEK. Good coordinators make use of their mismatch causing unique talent, the 49ers fail at this on a weekly basis.

The Deep Ball - Ginn and Williams were supposed to be the deep threats this year. Injuries have slowed this from occurring yet this year, but I'm still glad they bought Ginn in ( see special teams ), and I like the Williams pick, I hope he can see the field as a slot receiver at some point. They absolutely need someone to develop into a deep threat on this team, the opposing secondaries are allowed to be far to aggressive near the line of scrimmage.

The Zombie Horse, Continue Beating - Alex Smith had what I would consider to be a mediocre game today, but got the win. There's a sort of sad statistic that floats about that is something along the lines of, Alex has never won a game in which he passed for 250 yards ( IE, the 49ers have never won a game with Alex under center when the other team was putting up points ). I've said this before, going into the season, and I'll say it again, Carr is not better than Smith, nor is Smith #2 or even Nate Davis, but you don't necessarily replace a QB because you think he's going to be better. You do it because he WILL be different, and when everything is failing, different can't be any worse. It appears that Singletary is of the mindset that, once he replaces Smith that is it, he can not put Smith back in unless there are injuries. I don't consider this to be the case. If the offense is completely impotent, and he puts Carr in, and it stays impotent, and he puts Troy Smith in, and it stays impotent, he can go back to Alex. They don't have to cut him. He's not going to demand to get traded or cut. I see no harm in trying things if the offense is just dead.

Back to his play though, I've thought Smith has played ok, but the offensive system makes everyone look 25% worse than they actually are. I want him to throw the ball deep and leave it to Crabtree and Morgan to make a play on the ball, I want him to force some balls to VD and have him out muscle to get the ball. That is what good teams do, let their skill position players make plays. I don't blame him when he throws it deep and Ginn keeps running and allows a free int. In fact, I get more upset when I see him try to make a pin-point pass that the receiver has no chance at, today Morgan broke in and had 2 steps, Smith thought he was breaking back in and threw a dart over his head. He cold have just thrown a soft lead straight ahead of him and let him run under it. ( Not that I'm saying that's EASY, but should be a higher percentage throw for an NFL starter. )

What I HATE, absolutely HATE, is when he makes really dangerous throws that offer absolutely no chance of gain. Case in point, on Sunday he had a 3rd and 7, waited too long, then threw a 2 yard out to VD who was already so close to the side line that he had NO CHANCE of getting a first. So what is there to gain on that play? 2-4 yards. What is there to lose? Well, it could be a tipped interception, a pick 6, a fumble, it could get tipped at the line... That is just a bad bad decision.

Also, for all the pressure there was today, much of it came from the outside and Smith kept trying to roll out around it instead of stepping up in the pocket and just making a throw. I thought he had gotten over this, it's sad to see him revert back to it.

The Franchise
--------------------------------------

The Nails are in the Coffin - Singletary is done as 49ers head coach unless they both make the playoffs AND win in the playoffs, and do it with good play and not slug-fests. I see no chance of this occurring, so in my view, he is just done. Is he a lame duck coach? That I don't know, lame duck to me is someone who has no power in the locker room, and no matter what happens, I don't see these players giving up on him until they are mathematically eliminated, which shouldn't happen until deep into the season regardless of what happens.

Fysical with an F - The 49ers offensive philosphy that divided the fan base could, to me, be re-written as "We run through brick walls, not around them." It sounds cool, but is ultimately a style that will cause you to be easier to slow down, and easier to stop. A football team needs to be able to gain 1 yard running when they need 1 yard, they do not need to gain 5 yards on every run. There's plenty of modern evidence for this. I realize that if you can run for 4 yards a carry then you need to take less "chances" and can have a higher winning percentage over long periods of time, but it is rare in the modern NFL that a team can do that, particularly with non-veteran offensive lines.

I just don't understand why they aren't in shot-gun spread most of the time. They are much much better immediately after they go shut-gun and get into a rhythm. They just continue to pound that square peg into the round hole.

One Score Game - When the 49ers got the ball back in this game with 4 or 5 minutes left, up by 8 ( 1 score ), they decided to shut it down completely and run-run-run-run-run. It worked this week, they won. It took a handful of 3rd down conversions ( 1 3rd and 10+ ), but they got it done. Usually, they do not, and it results in the other team having one more, two more, three more chances to beat them. I hate that they do this. Hey, we could have two chances to beat you, one with our offense and one with our defense, but we don't, we're going to put it all on the defense, that can't pass rush and has a weak secondary. We'll see how it goes ( see New Orleans, Atlanta this year, a bunch of games last year ). It appears this is already the approach they're going to take in the Carolina game.

The Season - I think someone in the division is going to find a way to win 8 or more games. So, if the 49ers want to be that team, they need to rip off the first 6 game winning stream since.. well, probably the 90s. No matter what happens, Singletary will not get fired during the season, he will be the coach the rest of the year. I also wouldn't be shocked if Smith is the QB until they are eliminated, but I do hope HOPE that once they are eliminated, Nate Davis gets a shot to come in and show the fans, his teammates, and the future coach ( whomever he may be ), what he can and can not do.

The Future - I'm really interested to see the approach Jed takes to fixing the coaching and general organizational issues the 49ers have experienced the past 7 or 8 years. Do they really need a strong President personality to hold a position above Baalke and below Jed? Not really, if anything it would merely provide another punching bag for the fans. They're not going to hire someone like Parcells, get that out of your heads now. It's unfortunate they couldn't have landed someone like Holmgren, mais c'est la vie.

What's interesting to me is that the beat writers and pundits are describing the 49ers next head coach as someone with experience as an NFL head coach. I don't know why they'd think this, the only time in the last 35 years the 49ers have hired a head coach with prior NFL head coaching experience was Erickson. It is a franchise that generally focuses on hiring young new head coaches and promoting from within. Obviously the latter isn't going to happen. I can't imagine that Jed goes to Eddie to seek advice and Eddie tells him to pay Gruden 8 million a year ( not that I'd be upset with Gruden ).

One things for sure, they will be an offensive mind, which could net some immediate gains next season regardless of personnel changes. And just a throw in, some good defensive coaches could be on the market to be coordinators again ( Fox, Phillips, Mangini ).