SB Nation User Blog: wilbjammin

Game Theory: Prisoner's Dilemma and the GM

wilbjammin — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 22:56:32 -0000

There has been so much said about Pritchard and whether what he is doing is helping or hurting the team now as GM, that I've felt a need to throw out a little game theory to give some perspective regarding our current situation.

As a Political Science major in college, I studied how the Prisoner's Dilemma related to the ability and willingness of nations to work together or to work solely in their own interest at the expense of other nations. Here is the classic Prisoner's Dilemma scenario:

Two people are arrested and placed into two separate cells. They are each encouraged to testify against the other. If each prisoner cooperates and chooses to not testify against each other they will each have a relatively short sentence. If one testifies and the other does not, then the testifier gets off with no prison time and the other gets the maximum sentence. If each testifies against each other then they each get a long prison term, but not the maximum.

In this scenario you have an incentive to cooperate because a short prison term is better than a maximum prison term, but you also have an incentive to testify against the other person because your prison term will either be shorter than the other person's or the other person already ratted you out and already proved they could not be trusted.

This basic scenario can be adjusted many different ways (using both positive and negative numbers) to represent all kinds of situations. In international politics, for instance, the many times that cooperation works is that the value of cooperation is set in a way to exceed the cost of defection.

Basketball is a different game however, but few things hold true:

1) Basketball assets (such as players) are a scarce resource.

2) The exchange of basketball resources is based in a zero-sum game. For every winner there necessarily must be a loser.

3) The movement of basketball assets can be understood as an iterated (meaning, repeated indefinitely) Prisoner's Dilemma game.

What this means:

Dealing with players as assets is problematic. Each time a team is viewed as a winner and another as a loser, resentment builds - the incentive to cooperate diminishes. In the brief time that we have had Kevin Pritchard as GM, we have been widely seen as the winner in most trades.This not only means that we have burned specific teams, but the league as a whole as well. This has been exacerbated by the Darius Miles letter, but an even greater force in games playing is being illuminated now. The balance of power has shifted into our favor, and teams would rather be uncooperative at their own disadvantage than to let us continue to improve. While this can be seen as a stupid mistake for the teams that won't trade away assets to get our assets that could potentially improve both teams, this is a particularly smart tactic long-term if the teams we are dealing with have aspirations to have success against us in the playoffs.

The anxiety about KP's unwillingness to take risks, or pushing for specific free agents that we may or may not be excited about is rooted in the problem of the NBA being structured as a zero-sum game. We understand this problem well, as we examined the Pau Gasol trade from Memphis to L.A. In this trade, Memphis upset the balance of power and appeared by all rights to be acting with a lack of self-interest.

Self-interest is the backbone of what motivates actors in the Prisoner's Dilemma, and despite the growing angst felt toward KP the reality of the game will eventually catch up with other teams. Trades will be made that will make our team better because other actors, despite their lack of desire to work with us, have to look out for their own self-interest above all. As the summer progresses, the need for teams that have a reluctance to work with the Trail Blazers to work out a deal will increase because of the unique position of power that we are in.

KP is correct not to rush into any brash/risky moves because the accumulation of power in an iterated game is not created through high risk/high reward moves. The Spurs are the classic example of this being played out to near perfection in recent years. We may not like it, and view the relative increase in strength of other teams (Cavs, Spurs, Orlando, Celtics, Lakers) as a loss of power for ourselves. This is true, to some extent, but if this is how we feel, than many other teams in the NBA feels the same way as well. The incentive to cooperate with us will increase as this reality sets in.

Have patience Blazer fans, there is plenty of summer left and the incentive to cooperate continues to grow with each day that passes.

Full Roster with a Trade Exception (updated)

wilbjammin — Thu, 19 Feb 2009 02:51:45 -0000

The addition of Michael Ruffin means one thing for certain - the Blazers are not done. There are several ways that this can go, but I have my doubts that Ruffin will ever even suit up as a Blazer.

Teams are trying to dump salary. As a means of doing this, RLEC is a great chip but may not be enough. The trade exception allows teams to throw in players that they're wanting to get rid of in addition to whichever player we may actually want.

With 15 players on the roster, I assume that the Blazers are looking at a situation of potentially dumping RLEC, Sergio and/or Travis in exchange for taking on a big contract in addition to $3 million of a less desireable player with a less desireable contract. This move screams to me that whoever we're trying to deal with is likely desperate to save money.

I see this going down this way - Ruffin gets waived, we send out two players and receive back three (or 3 for 4?). Otherwise, I'm lost and Pritchard and Penn have even confused me. This opens up a world of possibilities.

Update: Jason Quick agrees with me - "They have 365 days to use the exception, and you can bet in these cash-crunched times there will be teams willing to unload a $3 million player onto the Blazers."

Focus and Meditation - 1st Quarter

wilbjammin — Sat, 07 Feb 2009 20:09:11 -0000

I know that some of you will probably object to this on the grounds that it is too Phil Jacksonian, but hear me out anyway.

The largest problem I see in these games is that the team does not seem focused at the start of games, even often in the games that we win. The feeling out process takes too long.

I think the team needs to seriously consider some sort of focusing-meditative practice before games start to visualize what they're trying to do out there. You can tell that Nate repeatedly tells the team what they need to do, they work on it in practices, and then they don't execute it nearly as well as they do in practice. To me, this is a problem of visualization. The team as a whole, does not enter games with a vision in their mind of what they need to do to win.

I have noticed that in the first quarter particularly, despite moving at game speed that we often end up on the wrong end of broken plays and awkward rebounds. That the Blazers just don't seem mentally in position to react to what is unfolding around them. I think that the intensity level that Nate feels is lacking from the team is caused by a lack of focus before the game actually starts.

I would like the team to spend a few minutes before every game, closing their eyes, and visualizing running plays through the offense. I'd like for them to visualize fighting through screens. I'd like for them to visualize rotating at the first instant that they realize they need to move.

The mental fatigue aspect of the game, playing through 82 games night in and night out is toughest on the young teams. What we've lost recently, and have been able to make up in our winning streak, is focus.

People can complain about individuals - like Oden picking up fouls, Brandon not being enough of a leader (come on... really?), Travis not getting out on 3-point shooters quickly enough, LaMarcus not rebounding enough on the defensive end, and Sergio making bad turnovers... but to me it just seems that overall the team doesn't have that razor's edge focus entering games.

Early in the season when we blasted the Bulls out of the water, you could see from the tip-off that we saw what we were going to do and followed that path. I don't see that vision now, but after halftime I can tell that the team almost always has that vision they need that they should have had in the first quarter. We almost always score more points in the second half than the other team - the only thing preventing us from doing it in the first half is focus.

Spurs sit everyone and unshockingly lose at Denver

wilbjammin — Wed, 04 Feb 2009 06:19:55 -0000

SA at Denver Recap

Ginobili has a bruised hip, and coach Gregg Popovich said he decided to give Duncan and Parker the night off in Denver following the Spurs' overtime win at Golden State Monday night. Same with Finley.

The question I have is - did Popovich even want to win this game? Clearly, this doesn't help the Blazers in the NW division. Their next game is in 5 days against Boston - you'd think they could rest then. The recap does say that the Spurs played well, though they basically trailed the entire game and never seemed in a position close to winning. What gives?

Now to Blazer Nation -

What do you make of this move? If you're a San Antonio fan, do you love it or hate it? Can you foresee an instance of Nate McMillan ever doing something like this? In the battle for the top in the West - or at the least positioning from 2-4 (if everything holds out roughly where we are now), don't you think that beating Denver would be really important? Moreso, than say - pretty much every other team except for division rivals? Do you think Parker and Duncan are showing more signs of wear and really need this rest?

As a Blazer fan, the move annoys me. But from an objective perspective I am trying to make sense of this move, and judge it on its merits. What do you all think? We're good at over-analyzing things, right? What lessons can be learned from this game?

Playoff odds make no sense

wilbjammin — Thu, 29 Jan 2009 06:57:20 -0000

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

In the west, Hollinger's playoff odds strike me as very strange -

LA - 100.0%

Denver - 99.3%

New Orleans - 98.9%

Portland - 97.4%

Houston - 95.4%

San Antonio - 95.3%

Phoenix - 85.9%

Utah - 72.0%

Dallas - 51.9%

That's right - nine teams with over a fifty percent chance of making the playoffs. I guess the West really is stacked? I know there must be some mathematical explanation for this, but I still won't be able to buy it. Anyway, the good news is that the Blazers are currently firmly in 4th place on this list - a very good sign.

Look at the faces of the people in the Staples Center watching Roy destroy their man. Anybody else...

wilbjammin — Wed, 28 Jan 2009 07:54:31 -0000

Look at the faces of the people in the Staples Center watching Roy destroy their man. Anybody else notice this?

Strength of Schedule

wilbjammin — Sun, 11 Jan 2009 20:37:09 -0000

Blazer fans, it is time for a little perspective. We're in great shape considering that we have the 2nd most difficult strength of schedule in this league thus far. Check out the overall winning percentage of teams played against for the top 10 teams, and the rest of the Western Conference teams in the playoff discussion:

1. Washington - 53.4%

2. Portland - 53.2%

3. Indiana - 53.0%

4. Chicago - 51.8%

5. Toronto - 51.4%

6. Sacramento - 51.3%

7. Charlotte - 51.2%

8. Phoenix - 51.0%

9. New Orleans - 50.9%

10. Denver - 50.9%

17. LAL - 49.7%

21. Utah - 48.9%

24. Houston - 48.7%

27. Dallas - 47.9%

30. San Antonio - 47.6%

Observations:

Comparing this with the playoff picture we have now, there's a few things we can assume unless the trends completely change:

1) New Orleans, Denver, and LA are likely going to finish near the top.

2) If Portland keeps focused and doesn't have a young team letdown, has the potential to soar into the top 4 or 5 in the West.

3) Predicting which of these 9 teams won't make the playoffs is difficult, but statistically it seems most likely to be either Dallas, Houston, or Utah. Of these three teams, only Houston has played more away games than home games at 16 home and 23 away.

My prediction for the Western Playoff picture as of now is this:

1. LAL

2. New Orleans

3. Denver

4. San Antonio

5. Portland

6. Phoenix

7. Houston

8. Dallas

And Utah missed the playoffs.

Poll

How accurate do you think my playoff predictions are?

Very accurate, I completely agree

11 votes

Portland will finish higher, but the rest looks good

6 votes

Portland will finish lower, but the rest looks good

15 votes

Portland will finish higher, and I'm wrong about most of the rest of the picture

2 votes

Portland will finish lower, and I'm wrong about most of the rest of the picture

9 votes

Playoffs!? Playoffs?? You're talking about Playoffs? Playoffs???

4 votes

47 votes | Poll has closed

Brandon Roy is no longer allowed to take breathers

wilbjammin — Sat, 15 Nov 2008 04:02:53 -0000

Other than Steve Blake with a +/- of only +2, Brandon Roy is the only Blazer with a positive +/- in the last game against Hornets at +5. That means, in the 6 minutes of the game that Roy wasn't in, the Blazers were outscored by 10 points. We need to do better than that; the bench needs to step up and, at the least, play some defense - try to at least stay even when Roy is out of the game.

http://stats.oregonlive.com/nba/boxscore.asp?gamecode=2008111403&home=3&vis=22

Comcast advertisement question

wilbjammin — Mon, 10 Nov 2008 04:14:31 -0000

via farm4.static.flickr.com

So for all of the money Comcast is spending on ads like this and on television, riddle me this Blazer fans -

Is it more cost-effective for Comcast to exploit us using these advertisements, or for Comcast to just provide the channel at a reasonable cost to providers so we wouldn't be in this mess in the first place?

Sincerely,

Annoyed Locked-Out Fan

P.S. - This ad is on Oregonlive's Blazer page, which is really, really annoying to me. It gives the impression that the Oregonian and the Blazers organization is completely on Comcast's side.

Rudy gets a Beamer

wilbjammin — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 23:58:36 -0000

I was stuck at the dealership for many hours today waiting to get a new windshield. After hours of mindlessly waiting for what seemed like forever, suddenly Rudy Fernandez burst through the door with his crew. I waved at him as he came though and he seemed shocked to see some half-asleep dude waving at him. I was shocked as well.

As I was leaving I saw him crawling into a brand new BMW X5 or something like it. The whole thing was filmed by a crew of guys that looked Spanish and I assumed were friends with Rudy, if not just friendly.

When I left Rudy was right next to me in the parking lot and I was thinking, "I hope to God Rudy knows how to drive this thing." I wasn't really worried, except for all of the distractions of the little film crew all over the parking lot.

So, welcome to America, Rudy - and enjoy your Beamer!