SB Nation User Blog: wjb1492

Game Preview # 25 - Bulls vs. Atlanta Hawks

wjb1492 — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 17:40:09 -0000

[Thanks to wjb1492 for today's game preview (sign up!). -ed.]

Atlanta Hawks (19-6, 7-4 road) at Chicago Bulls (9-15, 7-5 home), 7:00 p.m. Central time, WGN America.

Check out the Hawks point-of-view over at Peachtree Hoops. I can't even begrudge them their enthusiasm - if ever there was a group of fans that put in their dues, it's Hawks' fans.

The Bulls last faced the Hawks just 10 days ago - traveling to Atlanta to play the second night of a back-to-back and turning in a total stinker of a game to lose by 35. Just to refresh your memory as to how miserable that game was, the Bulls gave up 50% shooting while hitting only 36.4% of their own shots and lost in very nearly every box score stat. The Hawks are once again favorites to win, so what hope is there for us Bulls' fans?

The Hawks are the team on the second night of a back-to-back this time, beating Utah at home last night then having to travel to Chicago. Unfortunately for the Bulls, the Hawks have been ridiculously good in this situation, with a 5-1 record on the second night that includes wins over Denver and Dallas. Still, it has to be something of a positive that they just played and traveled while the Bulls had a day's rest after a home win. (For the record, the Bulls are 6-5 when playing on one day's rest.)

Also, the Hawks are on a 6-game winning streak. Now this sounds like a negative for the Bulls, but think about it - streaks have to end at some point, right? And sometimes they end because a team on a roll totally overlooks an opponent they assume isn't a threat, right? And after beating the Bulls by 35 just 10 games ago, by far the Hawks' biggest margin in this 6-game win streak, what team is Atlanta more likely to overlook than us? (Not that I've studied this scientifically or anything, but it makes me feel better to believe it!)

And finally, all 13 Bulls practiced yesterday (Tyrus in non-contact drills only) for I believe the first time all regular season. Now unfortunately this doesn't mean that all 13 players are healthy, or even available for the game yet. But maybe all practicing together will give the ones who play an emotional boost - I mean, we heard all about what great chemistry this group had leading into the season, and as short as the viable bench is the missing elements had to have hurt at least a little. So, maybe having all those elements back in contact, even if it's only in practice, will improve the on-court effectiveness of the team! Right?

OK, so in reality it's a huge stretch to find positives about the game tonight. Atlanta had fairly decent expectations coming into the season, and if anything they've exceeded those with the second-best record in the East right now and the second best scoring margin in the entire NBA. They have the top-rated offense, and a top-10 defense to go with it. They're athletic, they're healthier than the Bulls, and they're flat out playing much, much better as a team. And the Bulls continue to be in the bottom half of the NBA by virtually all measures. Meanwhile, in spite of a glimpse of hope here and there, John Salmons and Kirk Hinrich continue to struggle with their shooting far into the month of December - we're way past the "shooting slump" category here. Lately, Brad Miller has joined them, shooting under 40% over the past 5 games and missing all 5 3-pointers attempted.

The team has collectively looked better over the past couple of games - the harshest critics will point out that the effort still resulted in a 1-1 record with the win being a not-so-impressive victory over the Knicks, but for most of us the difference has been noticeable in that the Bulls were at least watchable. I didn't have the overwhelming urge to turn the TV off during these past two games, and that alone suggests a huge improvement in . . . something. The "greater effort/energy" mantra will likely be sorely tested tonight, but no matter what my head is telling me as I write this, I still feel that glimmer of hope stirring. Maybe this is the game that the effort and focus is there from beginning to end? Maybe this is the game that the shooting is respectable in every quarter? Maybe this is the game that takes us all back to the beginning of the season, when we were fresh off victories over the Spurs and Cavs and the season didn't feel like another long march to the lottery? A lot of things will need to break right for the Bulls to walk away with a victory, but I hear that's why they play the game.

If ever there was a photo that needed a creative caption....

wjb1492 — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 05:51:08 -0000

If ever there was a photo that needed a creative caption....

Game Preview #17 - Bulls at Cleveland Cavaliers

wjb1492 — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 18:02:40 -0000

[Thanks to 'wjb1492' for today's game preview -ed.]

Roughly a month ago, the Bulls and Cavs played the first of their 4 season games, with the Bulls somehow sneaking out of Cleveland with a 1 point win. Tonight they play their second game, also @ Cleveland, and even for a raving optimist this game doesn't seem promising. Why? Well, if you really have to ask, you're either a total homer or a basketball idiot. But read on anyway....

The first Cleveland game was the Bulls 5th game of the season, with the W moving Chicago to a record of 3-2. The L for the Cavs left them at 3-3, and also left people wondering whether signing Shaq was going to prove disastrous. Since that win, the Bulls have gone 4 and 7, with an average margin of non-victory of -5.5 following several blowout losses to very good teams. Meanwhile, the Cavs have gone 10 and 2 with an average scoring margin of +5.9. Their last two games include big wins over Dallas and Phoenix. Needless to say, these teams have gone in opposite directions since the first game, and the Bulls definitely took the less desirable path.
On top of that, the Bulls will be playing without Tyrus Thomas and Kirk Hinrich again. Last game the two chipped in 15 points on 50% shooting, 4 assists, 7 rebounds, a steal, and a block. Tyrus and Kirk both have their detractors around these parts, but when the alternatives are Lindsey Hunter (-2.95 PER) and lots of minutes for Taj Gibson anyone trying to be the least bit objective has to acknowledge the team is missing some important pieces. Debate whether they should be traded for different pieces all you want, so long as they're on the team we could really use them healthy and contributing.
The Bulls are currently 27th in offensive rating and 12th in defensive; the Cavs 12th in offensive and 7th in defensive. Hollinger ranks the Cavs 8th in the NBA right now, and the Bulls 21st. Pretty much any way you slice it up, the Cavs are currently a better team. And the game's in their house.
So given all that, it's not surprising that accuscore is predicting a big win for the Cavs tonight. Cleveland won over 90% of the simulations, 68% of them by more than 10 points. The projected score is Cleveland 101, Chicago 85.

What makes this game worth watching? Well, for many of us, it's just what you do when the Bulls play, hoping for one of those nights when the ball fall right. After all, amongst all those wins, the Cavs do have losses to Charlotte, Washington, Toronto, and us. Other than that, Derrick has been looking better lately, and there's always the fascinating saga of Vinny's rotations. With 6 DNPs this season, will JJ get a few minutes tonight? Will Joakim get any rest whatsoever? How long will Lindsey play, how many fouls can he pick up in those minutes, and will he score at all? Will Taj foul out again (3 so far this season)? If Jannero can go with his hip/back thing, how many shots can he jack up? Will Aaron get a chance to narrow the scoring race with Lindsey (now trails 5 to 1)? Anyone who says Bulls basketball is boring just isn't creative in what they watch for. ;)

Check out the Cavs' coverage at Fear the Sword.

Game Preview # 12 - Bulls @ Nuggets

wjb1492 — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 16:31:31 -0000

[Thanks to wjb1492 for today's game preview -ed.]

Ladies, gentlemen, and other BaB posters, welcome to the first payback game of the young season - the 6 and 5 Bulls (2 and 4 away) at the 8 and 4 Nuggets (4 and 0 home). Undoubtedly, you all also remember Brad's last second shot that was ruled just a little too last second, leaving the Bulls with a 1-point loss instead of a 1-point victory when the teams first matched up less than 2 weeks ago. Whether you think the refs got the call right or wrong, to come so close to a win and not get it still hurt. And I'm not usually one for bulletin board material, but Chauncey Billups' post-game quote forever cemented him as a first-grade ass in my mind.

Chauncey Billups sat and laughed, figuring the Denver Nuggets would celebrate soon enough. In the meantime, the Chicago Bulls were having their moment.
...
“As soon as I saw the flight of the ball, I knew it was good,” Billups said. “Then, I was sitting and laughing. Not so much about the shot, but looking at their reaction. They were dancing and jumping around like they had just made the Sweet 16. The longer it took, the better I felt. It was a great ending.”

(OK, to be honest, he was already cemented there, but it did remind me that I can't stand him, going all the way back to college.)

Since that game, our Bulls are 2 and 2, with wins over Philly and Sacramento and losses to Toronto and the Lakers. Since that time, Denver is also 2 and 2 - ironically with absolutely dominant wins over Toronto and the Lakers, but with losses to Milwaukee and the Clippers. That loss to the Clippers came just last night, so the glass-half-full types will undoubtedly focus on the second night of a back-to-back aspect of this, while the glass-half-empty types are sure the Nuggets will come out focused and full of fire after an embarrassing loss. I'm not sure which way I lean, to be honest. This will be Denver's 5th back-to-back, and they're 2-2 in the first four so it's not as if they never win on the second night. Plus the game's in their building, where they have yet to lose this season. On the other hand, Melo, Nene, and K-Mart all played big minutes last night trying to avoid that loss, so no matter how focused they come out there's at least a decent possibility they wear down by the end of the game.

Denver is 4th in offensive efficiency compared to Chicago's 27th, but 17th in defensive efficiency compared to Chicago's 5th. The Nuggets are led by Carmelo Anthony, currently averaging over 30 points per game, Nene with almost 9 rebounds a game, and Evil Billups with just under 6 assists per game. They have been held under 100 points only 4 times this season, but one of those games was the 90-point effort against the Bulls, Denver's second lowest point total of the season in which they collectively shot only 41.7%, 31.3% from 3, well under their season averages. If the Bulls can have another solid defensive effort tonight, they'll have a good shot at coming away with a win.

The caveat, of course, is that the Bulls still have to outscore Denver, no matter what point total they can hold the Nuggets to. And as we are all undoubtedly aware, the Bulls have scored 100 points or more only once this season, a 101-point effort against the Kings. Average points scored is a nearly meaningless stat in and of itself, but it is symbolic of the Bulls offensive struggles this season - plus, I can't help but laugh that the Nuggets points average is higher than the Bulls best scoring game of the season. The Bulls are led by Luol Deng with 16.4 points, Joakim Noah with 12.6 rebounds, and Derrick Rose with 5.5 assists per game. The early season MVP for the Bulls is undoubtedly Joakim, who has 8 double-doubles in 11 games so far, including double-doubles in 6 straight games. On the other end of the spectrum, the goat (not GoaT) of the season so far has been the 3 guard rotation, shooting a collective 39%, 30% from 3, and with a 1.8 A/TO ratio. (Yeah, I don't like A/TO ratio much either, but I'm too lazy to calculate the collective assist and TO percentages.)

In good news, there are some signs the guards are starting to come around. Derrick's shooting percentage over the last 5 games is up to 45.3%, compared to 42.5% in the first 6 games, and the majority of people seem to feel he was much more aggressive in the last half of the Lakers game. And while John and Kirk still aren't shooting great overall, the improvement in 3% for the last 5 games compared to the first 6 is quite nice - John is at 44% for the last 5 compared to 23.3% over the first 6, and Kirk is at 38.5% for the last 5 compared to 25% over the first 6. Better shooting on the 3s from those 2 will help the team out a lot.

In interesting yet totally meaningless splits stats, Saturdays (all 2 games, and against Charlotte and Philly!) have been Derrick's best shooting day (56.5%) by far, but also his worst day for TOs with both of his two 7 TO games coming on Saturday. Kirk (14 ppg) and John (20.5 ppg) both score the most on Saturdays (and on good shooting), while JJ has played (4.5 ppg) without scoring a single point. Taj shoots the worst on Saturdays (27.3%). Joakim is an absolute beast - 17.5 ppg on 65.2% shooting with 14 rpg.

The accuscore simulations for tonight's game definitely do not favor the Bulls - we lost 76% of the time, and lost big 47.4% of the time. Of course, we were underdogs last time I did the game preview, too (that was the Cleveland game), and as I explained then I always take the Bulls, no matter how ridiculous it looks on paper. It worked that time, so here's to hoping for another "underdog" victory. My guess: Bulls 102-95. After all, with Joakim, John, and Kirk all playing well on Saturdays, how could they lose? ;)

82games.com has the 09/10 season pages up now

wjb1492 — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 18:59:39 -0000

82games.com has the 09/10 season pages up now

Something positive for the Ty fans - he has the second highest Roland Rating of the team right now, barely trailing Brad.

(Of course, that probably just makes it all the worse that he's out now, right?)

Game Preview # 5: Bulls at Cleveland Cavaliers

wjb1492 — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 16:27:39 -0000

[UPDATE by your friendly BullsBlogger, 11/05/09 2:19 PM CST: Tyrus Thomas is flying commercial and going to meet the Bulls in Cleveland tonight. May or may not play. I give up.

Thanks to wjb1492 for today's game preview. My initial thoughts on this game is that the Murder Train A Comin'. Then I figured that the Bulls do have a chance to out-hustle and out-run an especially immobile Cavs team. Then I figured that without Tyrus Thomas they don't really have this especially athletic roster conducive to running. Hinrich, Salmons, Taj, Miller, gimpy Rose.... even though Deng is effective in transition he's not a superior athlete. It's basically just Noah at this point. -ed.]

So I really don't want to relive Tuesday's Milwaukee game, from which the Bulls managed to scrape a W in spite of collectively playing like garbage much of the night. The exception was Luol Deng, who has managed to silence most of his critics with his play so far this regular season. Suffice it to say that, after getting our hopes up with a nice win over a San Antonio team many have predicted to be a serious contender this year, the Bulls' next three games have fans once again predicting doom and gloom for the season. A blowout loss, a 4th quarter choke, and a slim two-point victory over a predicted cellar dweller don't exactly inspire confidence, even with the team sitting at .500 for the season.

Through four games, the Bulls offense is ranked 27th in the league, and guys expected to play key roles in the offense are struggling - Tyrus Thomas (47.1%), Derrick Rose (44.2%), James Johnson (41.0%), Kirk Hinrich (41.0%), and John Salmons (33.9%) all have sub-.500 true shooting percantages so far. John and Kirk have been particularly frightening, as our "3-point threats" are currently shooting 18.2% and 13.3% from 3 respectively. It's no wonder that people are having flashbacks to the miserable 07/08 season!

(I've left out Lindsey Hunter, since he's not expected to play a key role in anything but honorary titles this season - but for the record, Captain Hunter is shooting 0% and sporting a PER of -20. True, he's only played 7 minutes and attempted 2 shots, but anytime you can be in the "Top 5" of something deserves mention, right? Even if the category is Worst PER in the League....)

I tend to be a major optimist where my sports teams are concerned, though, and I'm far from ready to give up on the season. The optimist in me is holding onto the facts that (1) Boston is generally considered the most talented team in the leauge when healthy, and the Bulls faced them on the second night of a back-to-back while Boston was rested, (2) Miami is a good team with a superstar, and Chicago hung tough the entire game on Miami's home court, and (3) the team did not quit in spite of being down 18 points mid-way through the third quarter to the Bucks.

Meanwhile, the defense is currently 11th best in the NBA, in spite of having played 3 decent to great offenses (excluding Milwaukee). The offense is a classic chicken/egg conundrum - does the offense look bad because key guys are shooting poorly, or are key guys shooting poorly because the offense isn't great? In my humble opinion, it's a little of both. The odds of both John Salmons and Kirk Hinrich shooting this poorly all year have to be infinitesimally low, and hitting more shots will undoubtedly improve the offense beyond the mere increase in team FG%. And at least the front court is playing reasonably well.

All that said, tonight's game is likely to be rough, to say the least. After starting a surprising 0-2 (losing to Boston and @ Toronto), Cleveland has won it's last 3 games by an average margin of 13.3 points. The Cavs offense is currently ranked 16th in the league, and it's defense 7th. They have bigs our front court might struggle with, and of course they have Lebron James. Having Tyrus Thomas expected to miss the game with the flu (not "flu") won't help. Last season, the Cavs won 3 of 4 against the Bulls, with an average scoring margin of +7.5, and the W the Bulls did scrape out came on one of Lebron's worst games of the season, without Zydrunas Ilgauskas playing, and with Delonte West leaving early with an injury - and it still took OT.

For the game tonight, looking at the Accuscore simulations, Cleveland won 84% of the time, and won big (by 10+ points) 52.6% of the time, with an average score of Bulls losing 96.8 to 86.3. If the Bulls come out playing and shooting like they did to start the Milwaukee game, it's going to be a whole lot uglier than that. But I always pick the Bulls to win, even would logic would dictate otherwise. Shooting slumps have to come to an end at some point. And, even though Cleveland is predicted to do great things this season, they really haven't done much yet with two of their 3 wins coming against Minnesota and Charlotte. So until proven otherwise (which hopefully won't happen in the first five minutes of the game), I'm going to hold out hope that the near loss and comeback win on Tuesday will have galvanized the Bulls into a great effort, that Kirk and John come out hitting tonight while Luol and Joakim continue their great play, and that Derrick leads the team well even if still somewhat hampered by that dratted ankle. After all, the Bulls went 4 and 1 in Thursday games last year, while Cleveland was a mere 5 and 4 - and Chicago it currently batting 1.000 on Thursday night TNT appearances for this season!

Check out the coverage from the Cavs side on Fear the Sword.

Hollinger PER projections

wjb1492 — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 18:10:59 -0000

Hollinger PER projections

[From the FanShots. Looks like my afternoon just filled up. -ed.]

He's projecting Tyrus as the top-PER guy on the team this season, at 17.04 - it's not a particularly optimistic look at things. :)

Swirsky interview with ol' man Hunter

wjb1492 — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 04:01:49 -0000

Swirsky interview with ol' man Hunter

Not really anything new - more talk of defense. Swirsk does grill him a little on why he's still playing, but Lindsey sidesteps it like the 17-year pro he is! ;)

Turns out Lindsey's a big Tony Dungy fan, so I thought that was kind of cool.

Bulls preview from Golden State of Mind

wjb1492 — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 17:08:10 -0000

Bulls preview from Golden State of Mind

Season record prediction is 40-42, first round playoff loss.

Joe Dumars Q&A - lots of BG stuff

wjb1492 — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 17:44:39 -0000