Whom do you prefer and why?  Reality, fantasy, whatever. 

I argued that Davis was undervalued as a prospect, suggesting he was close to Smoak if not quite as good.  After last year I was still willing to give Smoak the edge but it was very close.  At this stage, even with Smoak rebounding and Ike injured, I'd give the slight nod to Ike.  Even though Smoak is a switch-hitter, he didn't crush lefties coming up and people made a big deal about Ike having problems with lefties.  Ike seemed to have progressed versus lefties and hit them well last year, actually better than righties.  This year in a tiny sample he is doing quite poorly against them.  Meanwhile Smoak is actually hitting lefties better than righties this year.  But for their careers Ike is at 99 wRC+ against them and Smoak 95, so both having some issues but not pronounced for young players.

Their walk and k rates are similar.  Smoak has a slightly higher swinging strike rate.  Smoak in a very tough home run park for, especially batting left i believe, Davis not in a great park either.  Smoak's lower babips may be flukey (or Davis's high ones too), but his line drive rate has plummeted this year along with the power boost.

They are still close, but after the draft and their first minor league season there seemed to be a wide chasm in perception (and indeed results) that Davis has bridged.

I need one, since my Chase D'Arnaud, Thomas Neal and Tyler Flowers pumping is all blowing up on me. Anyway, just kidding around. What happened to the big Vince Mazzaro fan from last year? I lucked out somewhat on this so far, since the process was bad. Somehow Gardner has cut back on his minor league K rates in the majors. And of course this is still small sample sizes. So he ain't Brett Butler yet, but this is a vintage Butler-esque season so far from this Brett. A little surprised the Yanks gave him the shot, but thus far he has made the most of it. http://www.minorleagueball.com/2009/6/27/927432/brett-gardener

And some other changes.  Read at fangraphs.  Jay Bay's 209 UZR goes from -13 to +1.9. Ellsbury's UZR is now 20+ in 2008, -9 last year (not sure what his UZR's were before-but think they were much worse).  Nice that they have worked to improve it.  This is interesting in light of the recent  BP article on "bias", the  fangraphs retort, etc., as recently highlighted I believe by Alskor.

 

Not really purely prospect related, but germane to the discussion.  I think.

Fangraphs just did their first UZR update of 2010.  They changed the park effects, and now Bay's 2009 measures out at 1.9+, making him a 5 WAR player last year.  It seemed pretty clear to me the large negative UZR he had under the former system must have been flukey, and Sam Page pointed out in an article how UZR had him as worse than Dewan and much worse than Total Zone.  Errors and assists don't mean everything, we know, but given his putout rate, no errors, 15 assists and  fact he isn't  especially slow or appear to take really bad routes, it just didn't seem right that his UZR would be so bad, at least last year.

 

He is already at -1.2 UZR with the Mets (nice catch down the line last night however), and appears to be trying to justify his payday at the plate, but maybe his contract, at least the early years, isn't so bad.  A year of UZR isn't enough to go on, but it does seem he was improving from the knee injury that hobbled him previously.

EASTERN LEAGUE TOP 20 PROSPECTS

1. Pedro Alvarez, 3b, Altoona (Pirates) 2. Madison Bumgarner, lhp, Connecticut (Giants) 3. Kyle Drabek, rhp, Reading (Phillies) 4. Carlos Santana, c, Akron (Indians) 5. Jesus Montero, c, Trenton (Yankees) 6. Domonic Brown, of, Reading (Phillies) 7. Junichi Tazawa, rhp, Portland (Red Sox) 8. Wilson Ramos, c, New Britain (Twins) 9. Michael Taylor, of, Reading (Phillies) 10. Brad Lincoln, rhp, Altoona (Pirates) 11. Hector Rondon, rhp, Akron (Indians) 12. Josh Reddick, of, Portland (Red Sox) 13. Ike Davis, 1b, Binghamton (Mets) 14. Marc Rzepczynski, lhp, New Hampshire (Blue Jays) 15. Jose Tabata, of, Altoona (Pirates) 16. Scott Sizemore, 2b, Erie (Tigers) 17. Jake Arrieta, rhp, Bowie (Orioles) 18. Nick Weglarz, of, Akron (Indians) 19. Zach McAllister, rhp, Trenton (Yankees) 20. Brandon Snyder, 1b, Bowie (Orioles)

CALIFORNIA LEAGUE TOP 20 PROSPECTS

1. Buster Posey, c, San Jose (Giants) 2. Christian Friederich, lhp, Modesto (Rockies) 3. Jason Castro, c, Lancaster (Astros) 4. Chris Withrow, rhp, Inland Empire (Dodgers) 5. Phillipe Aumont, rhp, High Desert (Mariners) 6. Alex Liddi, 3b, High Desert (Mariners) 7. Pedro Figueroa, lhp, Stockton (Athletics) 8. Wynn Pelzer, rhp, Lake Elsinore (Padres) 9. Thomas Neal, of, San Jose (Giants) 10. James Darnell, 3b, Lake Elsinore (Padres) 11. Roger Kieschnick, of, San Jose (Giants) 12. Cory Luebke, lhp, Lake Elsinore (Padres) 13. Tyson Gillies, of, High Desert (Mariners) 14. Alexander Torres, lhp, Rancho Cucamonga (Angels) 15. Trayvon Robinson, of, Inland Empire (Dodgers) 16. Grant Desme, of, Stockton (Athletics) 17. Logan Forysthe, 3b, Lake Elsinore (Padres) 18. Jemile Weeks, 2b, Stockton (Athletics) 19. Craig Italiano, rhp, Stockton/Lake Elsinore (Padres/Athletics) 20. Darren Ford, of, San Jose (Giants)

I had part of this in a thread over on Sickel's blog, but figured it may be of interest here.  I think Ike is moving well up the ranks, ahead of even Lars Anderson in my mind now.

This list does not count 1B DH types now catching such as Montero or Flowers, etc., or if Wallace moves to first

I may be missing some guys, but here is a possible top 10:

Rank name age level avg/oba/slug ABs BBs Ks Community Rank(minorleagueball preseason)1B and Overall

1. Freddie Freeman, 19, AA .306/.386/.457 324 30 46 (7-46)

2. Justin Smoak, 22, AAA, .288/.402/.443 271 50 57 (2-22)

3. Logan Morrison, 21, AA, .268/.419/.459 157 41 25 (5-38)
 
4. Yonder Alonso, 22, AA, .287/.360/.470 230 28 35 (6-44)

5. Chris Carter, 22, AA, .306/.408/.513 386 65 98 (8-51)

6. Ike Davis, 22, AA, .296/.384/.507 345 49 87 (N/A)

7. Lars Anderson, 21, AA, .260/.351/.389 339 47 90 (1-21)

8. Eric Hosmer, 19, A+, .255/.349/.376 306 46 74 (4-29)

9. Kyle Blanks, 22, majors, .283/.393/.485 233 39 63 (9-79)

10. Brandon Allen 23, AAA, .295/.368/.492 356 39 68 (N/A)

Ike's ISO is the highest of anyone on the list, and considering he was in FSL and EL, as opposed to say, Carter, in Texas League, that's really impressive.  Still discounted a notch due to strikeouts and last year, but last year now seems like the fluke.   I gave Freeman the nod over Smoak due to age and he is already doing well ina limited sample at 19 since his promotion to AA. I have carp as honorable mention.  But for Ike to be someone in the running for top 3 even (Alonso and Carter ahead by just a  hair) after last year is really an impressive comeback.

Hmm, the Butler comparison doesn't seem so ridiculous now, does it.  Admittedly, he'd have to have a very long career, but he is already out-OPSing Butler at the same age when Butler had his first full season in the minors and turned 26 (1983 with Braves).  All I was suggesting was the skill set was similar, and the power is a bit flukey, an inside the parker and one right where te Citi field left field juts out.  But he has been serviceable.

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/9/24/620941/analysis-of-yankees-prospe#8977135

Back up to AA Jacksonville, after starting his comeback back at Jupiter, 2-6 with a double yesterday.  Has done well in a small sample this year due to the shoulder injury.

Where does he rank now?  He is slightly younger than Smoak, who I think rates ahead of him.  I think Morrison ranks ahead of Alonso now in my book, who has struggled in the short time he has been in AA.  Alonso did pretty well in FSL, albeit his patience wasn't quite what I expected.  Lars Anderson has been a little disappointing repeating AA, but still looks quite promising.  I rated Morrison ahead of him coming into this year, as i felt FSL hid his power.  Plus he raked in Arizona.  But i understood why Anderson was rated more highly by many.

Chris Carter has been pretty good in AA, raising his average.  I still have Morrison ahead of him, but I like carter.

Blanks' average is down, but i still like him as well.  Hosmer taking some time to develop, it seems.  Freeman's power is down, but he IS only 19 and in high A carolina.

As of right now, I rank Morrison second (and i may be completely forgetting some prospects-maybe Montero counts as a first basemen, Flowers, although I have Morrison ahead of him, etc.).  Kila has been good but maybe too old, Carp has also been good this year.  Still prefer Morrison.

Ike Davis may be creeping into the very bottom of the top 100.  Up to a .284/.369/.487 slash line in FSL.  He has a high babip and isn't hitting lefties, but he is crushing righties and that isa  tough league for power guys.  At least we may be able to start calling him that. 

Anyway, good to see Morrison back.  I know it is a small sample yet, but where do you all see him as far as first base prospect rankings?

 

I noticed that Brandon Knight was 10th in the International league in tRA*, or regressed tRA.  Just behind Chris Tillman, the hyped O's prospect.  Dillon Gee and Jon Niese also rank fairly well in the mid-teens, ahead of Michael Bowden, for example.  So my initial intent for this post was just to say that as a stopgap, the Mets could try Knight in place of Redding, until they can make a trade or decide to give Niese another go (oh, andbtw, Mejia was number 2 in tRA* in Fla St. League before promotion).

But then I decided to look at the major league rankings in tRA*, which some have suggested is a preferred stat, and FIP, and see if anything stuck out versus my own subjective rankings.

I was struck by certain differences in how certain starters were ranked by the methods.  For example.  Mark Buehrle was ranked very low in tRA*, 83rd.  Manny Parra ranked 40th.  That seemed awfully high compared to Buehrle.  FIP was more "accurate" in my mind for these 2. 

Conversely, Chris Volstad was ranked 32nd in tRA*, 60th in FIP.  The FIP ranking seemed too "low".  He has given up 11 homers of course.  But his gb/fb ratio is 1.12.  Seems he is giving up an unlucky number of home runs.   tRA* accounts for that, I think.

Jorge de la Rosa was ranked consistently fairly high in each.  He was 20th in tRA* and 24th in FIP.  But i think that is "too high".  Yes, he strikes out a lot of guys.  He has only given up 4 homers.  But his gb/fb ratio is .83.  Perhaps he has had some luck with homers allowed.  But mainly, despite a k/bb of slightly better than 2, he walks too many, over 4 a game.  And I think that is a better indicator of his run-suppressing abilties.

Of course, these are just isolated cases, smallish samples.  However, it seems important to me to balance out the various methods of evaluating performance.  In this case.  But I'd say FIP gets Buehrle "right", tRA* gets him wrong.  FIP gets Volstad "wrong", trA* gets him right.  tRA* "overrates" Parra.  FIP and tRA* both "overrate" de la Rosa, slightly.

Buehrle's era seems a bit low, but he is a pretty good pitcher with control.  For this year he is about even with Volstad in my book.  de la Rosa a little behind them.  But his era makes him look much worse than he is.  Parra just has walked way too many to be in these guys' class.

Of course, it is what it is.  They each rank where they rank in each metric.  None of them can be said to be right or wrong, or overrate or underrate anyone.  I think, however, most people, in a team neutral, park neutral, salary neutral setting, choosing among them for a fantasy team for the rest of this year,  would be tossed up on Volstad or Buehrle, some going for the vet, some the youngster.  Woud likely like de la Rosa (obviously more so away from the Rockies and Coors) but be a little scared of the walks, and would say thanks but no thanks on Parra, although he has some potential.

I give some of their stats below.  Forgive me for the way it is presented, for I am a bit of a luddite, but will get the hang of some of the sites rich features when i get the hang.

I think all of these metrics need to be looked at, and to weigh them all in the balance.  If any of these lines are out of whack it can be a red flag.  k/bb k/9 and bb/9 are all pretty good indicators. To me, Niese's era (non-sequitor alert) is a bit of a red flag despite the good peripherals, however.

And to come full circle, I still think Brandon Knight, with his number 10 ranking in tRA* in the Int'l League and a 90+ fastball, would be a nice sub for Redding.      

                    inn       h    hr   k   bb  g/f   era    FIP  tRA* rank 

Buehrle      66-1/3  64   7  42  12  .80   2.71  33  82

Parra          57-1/3  69   7  51  36 1.01  6.75  73  40

Volstad      68         56 11  54  21 1.12  3.71  60  20

delaRosa 54-2/3   52   4  57  26  .83   5.43   24   20

Aftera  dreadful pro debut and slow start to the year, Ike Davis is up to .297/.373/.446 and hit his first pro home run on Tuesday.  Decent production for the Fla State league.  No word on whether he painted an aluminum bat to look like wood.

Maybe he sucked the strength outta Nick Evans.  What an atrocious start in Buffalo.  of course, having tasted the buffet in the majors, he may be a little disappointed with the chicken wings, beef on weck, spiedies and saratoga fries up state.  Although why that would be I don't know.

 

Why is Alderson repating at San Jose?  He is young, but he did very well there last year.  I looked to see if this was addressed here before but hadn't seen anything.  I guess i should check the giants fan site.

 

Also wondering if Flores is hurt.  He hasn't played since last thursday.

 

Hmm, still need more words.  Salome is struggling.  Chacin got roughed up his last start.  Feliz too.  Hosmer's struggles have been discussed.

I know this isn't a generic baseball site, but a minor league site.  And I know I brought this up for discussion already once.  But again the royals don't use Soria in a close game.  he has pitched all of 4 innings this year.  He is used only for 1 inning.  Only in strict save situations.  This is a pathetic waste of their talent. 

They bring in Cruz early, yet don't let him go a full inning.  They play matchups and go to mahay.  Then Wright.  Leaving them with farnsworth to go to in the 9th inning of  a tie game.  Result: another loss, and the 3 loss for farnsworth already.  Ramirez pitching well for Boston?  check.  Nunez pitching well for Marlins? check.  Soria wasted on their bench?  Check.  Farnsworth wasted money? check. 

Now, i didn't watch the game and haven't followed all that closely.  So i may be missing something here.  Part of this is GM fault it seems.  part of it seems like the manager's fault.  The royals seem to have some good starters 1-3.  It's a shame.

Conversely, Sean Green is being abused by Jerry manuel.  He had a lousy second half last year after a good first half.  Looks like his arm will fall off by midseason.

 

I think Robertson is the best of the yankees bullpen hopefuls.  I like Edwar, and Veras has a good arm.  He wasn't great today though. Marte and he helped the game get outta hand in the new stadium opener.

 

Roberston has been lights out so far in the minors.  He'll need a little better command than he had in the majors last year, but I like his chances of being, after bruney, the bridge to Rivera.

Shorter than any outing last year, 3 innings.  Not that he got slammed.  But 3 walks, a hit batter and a wild pitch in 3 innings.  Similiar to his first start last year, 4 innings and 4 walks, but he got out of that with 1 run.  He had only one worse start last year, his next to last outing .  Still  think they pushed him too hard late last year, but it's early yet.

I guess this is misplaced as a post on minor league ball, but why do the royals keep underutilizing one of the great pitchers in baseball, Joakim Soria?  8th inning, 2 on, 2 out, 1 run lead, and they let farnsworth pitch to Thome?  Result, 3 run dinger and a loss.  Soria can't pitch 1 and a third? What a waste.

Hope Morrow will at least be allowed to come on in the 8th for Mariners.

 

Nice opposite field blast.  How long does that HGH effect last?  Kidding.  Ran at a nice, fast respectful clip. :)  I underrated him, and thought he was too high in the community poll.  Braves fans must be salivating, but of course it doesn't mean much yet.  Figured they were rushing him.  Braves always liked to just break'em in.  I am wondering when they bring Hanson up.  Maybe the Braves can compete in this division after all.  As a mets fan, not liking that. I think the bottom teams are looking up.

No comment, really.  But I have to fill up the word limit, so I guess I have to say something.  Maybe it was just one of those cute baby abductions like in Raising Arizona.  Anyway, from the story she appears to have an arrest history and due to various aliases the police can't figure out where she is from originally.   Maybe it was like Susan Sarandon in Bull Durham, she's just into young ballplayers and William Blake. Oh, and baby kidnapping.  

 

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.aspx?sport=MLB&hl=257310&id=4292

A long way from prospectdom, but NY Post had a nice article on pelfrey and his progression as a pitcher.  I know he didn't get a lot of ks last year, but his control went up as season went along and he is hard to take deep, a la wang.  Mention of a couple of called strike curve balls tossed in this article.  i think he is primed for a good year.

http://www.nypost.com/seven/03202009/sports/mets/pelfs_arsenal_and_potential_growing_160438.htm

 

 

Rotoworld talking about Porcello posibly coming to the majors if Bonderman not ready for opening day.  This may just be a rumor, and Bonderman may be back on track, but surprised they would do it even if Bonderman isn't ready.   

I would love to see the community projection on Porcello coming right to the majors.  You'd get a wide range of opinions I'd bet.  Anyway, I'd want to see him pick up his k rate in, say, AA.  Don't the Tigers have any cannon-fodder sps at higher levels?

 

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.aspx?sport=MLB&id=4971

 

http://www.borowitzreport.com/article.aspx?ID=6969

Yankees Sign Iraqi Hurler Shoe-throwing Right-hander Impresses Scouts   In their latest bid to beef up their pitching rotation for the 2009 season, the New York Yankees today signed Iraqi journalist Muntadar al-Zeidi to a three-year deal worth $32 million.   The right-handed al-Zeidi, 28, impressed the Yankee scouts with his performance in Baghdad yesterday when he threw both of his shoes at President George W. Bush.   While neither of the shoes hit their target, both throws "had great velocity and good movement," said Yankee owner Hank Steinbrenner.   "The first shoe was high and outside but the second one was right down the middle," Mr. Steinbrenner said.   The Yankee boss said that he was also impressed with Mr. al-Zeidi's fighting spirit when Secret Service agents tackled him.   "That could come in handy when we have a series with Boston," he said

Came back with a pretty nice outing in AFL.  5 innings, 1 hit, no walks, 8ks.  The New York Post was burying him after hanson smoked him in that stars game.  Quoted all kinds of negativosity from scouts out there.  perhaps buried prematurely.

Not to get carried away but encouraging for him.  He was coming back from an injury (again), and i don't think his Trenton season could be a complete mirage.  Plus, he pitched ok in 2007 and even pitched well against Indians in the playoffs that year.