SB Nation User Blog: wobatus

Brett Gardner

wobatus — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 15:17:35 -0000

Hmm, the Butler comparison doesn't seem so ridiculous now, does it. Admittedly, he'd have to have a very long career, but he is already out-OPSing Butler at the same age when Butler had his first full season in the minors and turned 26 (1983 with Braves). All I was suggesting was the skill set was similar, and the power is a bit flukey, an inside the parker and one right where te Citi field left field juts out. But he has been serviceable.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/9/24/620941/analysis-of-yankees-prospe#8977135

Logan Morrison

wobatus — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 16:43:30 -0000

Back up to AA Jacksonville, after starting his comeback back at Jupiter, 2-6 with a double yesterday. Has done well in a small sample this year due to the shoulder injury.

Where does he rank now? He is slightly younger than Smoak, who I think rates ahead of him. I think Morrison ranks ahead of Alonso now in my book, who has struggled in the short time he has been in AA. Alonso did pretty well in FSL, albeit his patience wasn't quite what I expected. Lars Anderson has been a little disappointing repeating AA, but still looks quite promising. I rated Morrison ahead of him coming into this year, as i felt FSL hid his power. Plus he raked in Arizona. But i understood why Anderson was rated more highly by many.

Chris Carter has been pretty good in AA, raising his average. I still have Morrison ahead of him, but I like carter.

Blanks' average is down, but i still like him as well. Hosmer taking some time to develop, it seems. Freeman's power is down, but he IS only 19 and in high A carolina.

As of right now, I rank Morrison second (and i may be completely forgetting some prospects-maybe Montero counts as a first basemen, Flowers, although I have Morrison ahead of him, etc.). Kila has been good but maybe too old, Carp has also been good this year. Still prefer Morrison.

Ike Davis may be creeping into the very bottom of the top 100. Up to a .284/.369/.487 slash line in FSL. He has a high babip and isn't hitting lefties, but he is crushing righties and that isa tough league for power guys. At least we may be able to start calling him that.

Anyway, good to see Morrison back. I know it is a small sample yet, but where do you all see him as far as first base prospect rankings?

On Brandon Knight, fip/tRA*

wobatus — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 16:12:53 -0000

I noticed that Brandon Knight was 10th in the International league in tRA*, or regressed tRA. Just behind Chris Tillman, the hyped O's prospect. Dillon Gee and Jon Niese also rank fairly well in the mid-teens, ahead of Michael Bowden, for example. So my initial intent for this post was just to say that as a stopgap, the Mets could try Knight in place of Redding, until they can make a trade or decide to give Niese another go (oh, andbtw, Mejia was number 2 in tRA* in Fla St. League before promotion).

But then I decided to look at the major league rankings in tRA*, which some have suggested is a preferred stat, and FIP, and see if anything stuck out versus my own subjective rankings.

I was struck by certain differences in how certain starters were ranked by the methods. For example. Mark Buehrle was ranked very low in tRA*, 83rd. Manny Parra ranked 40th. That seemed awfully high compared to Buehrle. FIP was more "accurate" in my mind for these 2.

Conversely, Chris Volstad was ranked 32nd in tRA*, 60th in FIP. The FIP ranking seemed too "low". He has given up 11 homers of course. But his gb/fb ratio is 1.12. Seems he is giving up an unlucky number of home runs. tRA* accounts for that, I think.

Jorge de la Rosa was ranked consistently fairly high in each. He was 20th in tRA* and 24th in FIP. But i think that is "too high". Yes, he strikes out a lot of guys. He has only given up 4 homers. But his gb/fb ratio is .83. Perhaps he has had some luck with homers allowed. But mainly, despite a k/bb of slightly better than 2, he walks too many, over 4 a game. And I think that is a better indicator of his run-suppressing abilties.

Of course, these are just isolated cases, smallish samples. However, it seems important to me to balance out the various methods of evaluating performance. In this case. But I'd say FIP gets Buehrle "right", tRA* gets him wrong. FIP gets Volstad "wrong", trA* gets him right. tRA* "overrates" Parra. FIP and tRA* both "overrate" de la Rosa, slightly.

Buehrle's era seems a bit low, but he is a pretty good pitcher with control. For this year he is about even with Volstad in my book. de la Rosa a little behind them. But his era makes him look much worse than he is. Parra just has walked way too many to be in these guys' class.

Of course, it is what it is. They each rank where they rank in each metric. None of them can be said to be right or wrong, or overrate or underrate anyone. I think, however, most people, in a team neutral, park neutral, salary neutral setting, choosing among them for a fantasy team for the rest of this year, would be tossed up on Volstad or Buehrle, some going for the vet, some the youngster. Woud likely like de la Rosa (obviously more so away from the Rockies and Coors) but be a little scared of the walks, and would say thanks but no thanks on Parra, although he has some potential.

I give some of their stats below. Forgive me for the way it is presented, for I am a bit of a luddite, but will get the hang of some of the sites rich features when i get the hang.

I think all of these metrics need to be looked at, and to weigh them all in the balance. If any of these lines are out of whack it can be a red flag. k/bb k/9 and bb/9 are all pretty good indicators. To me, Niese's era (non-sequitor alert) is a bit of a red flag despite the good peripherals, however.

And to come full circle, I still think Brandon Knight, with his number 10 ranking in tRA* in the Int'l League and a 90+ fastball, would be a nice sub for Redding.

inn h hr k bb g/f era FIP tRA* rank

Buehrle 66-1/3 64 7 42 12 .80 2.71 33 82

Parra 57-1/3 69 7 51 36 1.01 6.75 73 40

Volstad 68 56 11 54 21 1.12 3.71 60 20

delaRosa 54-2/3 52 4 57 26 .83 5.43 24 20

Ike Davis's Power Sighted

wobatus — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 20:30:25 -0000

Aftera dreadful pro debut and slow start to the year, Ike Davis is up to .297/.373/.446 and hit his first pro home run on Tuesday. Decent production for the Fla State league. No word on whether he painted an aluminum bat to look like wood.

Maybe he sucked the strength outta Nick Evans. What an atrocious start in Buffalo. of course, having tasted the buffet in the majors, he may be a little disappointed with the chicken wings, beef on weck, spiedies and saratoga fries up state. Although why that would be I don't know.

Alderson and Flores

wobatus — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 18:55:29 -0000

Why is Alderson repating at San Jose? He is young, but he did very well there last year. I looked to see if this was addressed here before but hadn't seen anything. I guess i should check the giants fan site.

Also wondering if Flores is hurt. He hasn't played since last thursday.

Hmm, still need more words. Salome is struggling. Chacin got roughed up his last start. Feliz too. Hosmer's struggles have been discussed.

Royals relief

wobatus — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 14:42:06 -0000

I know this isn't a generic baseball site, but a minor league site. And I know I brought this up for discussion already once. But again the royals don't use Soria in a close game. he has pitched all of 4 innings this year. He is used only for 1 inning. Only in strict save situations. This is a pathetic waste of their talent.

They bring in Cruz early, yet don't let him go a full inning. They play matchups and go to mahay. Then Wright. Leaving them with farnsworth to go to in the 9th inning of a tie game. Result: another loss, and the 3 loss for farnsworth already. Ramirez pitching well for Boston? check. Nunez pitching well for Marlins? check. Soria wasted on their bench? Check. Farnsworth wasted money? check.

Now, i didn't watch the game and haven't followed all that closely. So i may be missing something here. Part of this is GM fault it seems. part of it seems like the manager's fault. The royals seem to have some good starters 1-3. It's a shame.

Conversely, Sean Green is being abused by Jerry manuel. He had a lousy second half last year after a good first half. Looks like his arm will fall off by midseason.

david Robertson called up

wobatus — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 20:49:35 -0000

I think Robertson is the best of the yankees bullpen hopefuls. I like Edwar, and Veras has a good arm. He wasn't great today though. Marte and he helped the game get outta hand in the new stadium opener.

Roberston has been lights out so far in the minors. He'll need a little better command than he had in the majors last year, but I like his chances of being, after bruney, the bridge to Rivera.

Lincecum's start

wobatus — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 02:57:45 -0000

Shorter than any outing last year, 3 innings. Not that he got slammed. But 3 walks, a hit batter and a wild pitch in 3 innings. Similiar to his first start last year, 4 innings and 4 walks, but he got out of that with 1 run. He had only one worse start last year, his next to last outing . Still think they pushed him too hard late last year, but it's early yet.

More Royal Idiocy

wobatus — Tue, 07 Apr 2009 21:29:40 -0000

I guess this is misplaced as a post on minor league ball, but why do the royals keep underutilizing one of the great pitchers in baseball, Joakim Soria? 8th inning, 2 on, 2 out, 1 run lead, and they let farnsworth pitch to Thome? Result, 3 run dinger and a loss. Soria can't pitch 1 and a third? What a waste.

Hope Morrow will at least be allowed to come on in the 8th for Mariners.

Welcome to the show Jordan Schafer

wobatus — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 00:35:46 -0000

Nice opposite field blast. How long does that HGH effect last? Kidding. Ran at a nice, fast respectful clip. :) I underrated him, and thought he was too high in the community poll. Braves fans must be salivating, but of course it doesn't mean much yet. Figured they were rushing him. Braves always liked to just break'em in. I am wondering when they bring Hanson up. Maybe the Braves can compete in this division after all. As a mets fan, not liking that. I think the bottom teams are looking up.