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yanksrule08

Sep 08, 2008 May 15, 2012 8 121

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Daily Norseman Projecting Ponder: 2012 Stats

Tiny by yanksrule08 on on Daily Norseman

I'm sorry to piggyback on your post, CCNorsemen, but I after I saw your great analysis, I decided to share some analysis that I have been working on, as it seems like it would be a good companion piece to your post.

While CCNorsemen's post looked back at this past season and what might have been for Ponder, I have been looking into the future and what we might expect from Ponder next season.

My analysis began with amassing every quarterback since 1998 that started at least 9 games in both his rookie and sophomore year. I ended up with 20 quarterbacks. One caveat to this is I included Stafford, who started 10 games his rookie year, but only played in 3 games his 2nd year due to a shoulder injury. I used his 3rd year stats (this past season) in place of his 2nd year stats. It could be argued that his progression from 1st year to 2nd* year is not indicative of a quarterback's normal maturity, since he had an extra year of seasoning while sitting on the bench. But I decided to use him.

The stats I tracked were Completion Percentage, Yards Per Attempt (YPA),Touchdowns Per Attempt (TD%) and Interceptions Per Attempt (INT%). Everything is in Per Attempt averages, since attempts can vary widely, and raw totals are not always indicative of true performance.

Here are the stats from the 20 quarterbacks:

First Year Second Year
Player Comp % YPA TD % INT % Comp % YPA TD % INT %
Stafford 53.3 6.0 3.4 5.3 63.7 7.5 6.0 2.3
Sanchez 53.8 6.7 3.3 5.5 54.8 6.5 3.4 2.6
Freeman 54.5 6.4 3.4 6.2 61.4 7.3 5.3 1.3
Ryan 61.1 7.9 3.7 2.5 58.3 6.5 4.9 3.1
Flacco 60.0 6.9 3.3 2.8 63.1 7.2 4.2 2.4
Edwards 56.1 6.1 2.6 3.0 65.5 7.2 2.9 2.7
Young 51.5 6.2 3.4 3.6 62.3 6.7 2.4 4.5
Smith 50.9 5.3 0.6 6.7 58.1 6.5 3.6 3.6
E. Manning 48.2 5.3 3.0 4.6 52.8 6.8 4.3 3.1
Roethlisberger 66.4 8.9 5.8 3.7 62.7 8.9 6.3 3.4
Boller 51.8 5.6 3.1 4.0 55.6 5.5 2.8 2.4
Leftwich 57.2 6.7 3.3 3.8 60.5 6.7 3.4 2.3
Palmer 60.9 6.7 4.2 4.2 67.8 7.5 6.3 2.4
Carr 52.5 5.8 2.0 3.4 56.6 6.8 3.1 4.4
Harrington 50.1 5.3 2.8 3.7 55.8 5.2 3.1 4.0
McNabb 49.1 4.4 3.7 3.2 58.0 5.9 3.7 2.3
McNown 54.0 6.2 3.4 4.3 55.0 5.9 2.9 3.2
Batch 57.1 7.2 3.6 2.0 55.9 7.2 4.8 2.6
Leaf 45.3 5.3 0.8 6.1 50.0 5.8 3.4 5.6
P. Manning 56.7 6.5 4.5 4.9 62.1 7.8 4.9 2.8
Ponder 54.3 6.4 4.5 4.5

The quarterbacks are in chronological order. To give you an idea of how Ponder's rookie season compared to the others, this is where he places in each category:

10th out of 21 in Comp% (between Freeman and McNown)

10th out of 21 in YPA (between Freeman and McNown again)

2nd out of 21 in TD% (between Roethlisberger and P. Manning)

8th out of 21 in INT% (between E. Manning and McNown)

Next, I calculated an average Percent Change from 1st year to 2nd year. I took the average of each stat from 1st year numbers, and the average of each stat from 2nd year numbers, and calculated the Percent Change from 1st to 2nd. Also, I removed 4 outliers from each average. I removed the top 2 Percent Changes of YPA, and the bottom 2 Percent Changes of YPA, etc. Some stats were skewing the overall averages, such as Alex Smith's TD% increasing 500% (0.6 in 1st year, 3.6 in 2nd year).

Average Change from 1st Year to 2nd Year

Comp %

YPA

TD %

INT %

8.7%

8.6%

24.6%

-24.3%

Next I applied these average changes to Ponder's rookie stats.

Ponder 2012 Projected Stats

Comp %

YPA

TD %

INT %

59.0

6.9

5.6

3.4

To expand these to raw totals, we need to make an assumption about how many pass attempts we will have. The Vikings as a team had 510 attempts this year. With 510 sttempts, his numbers would look like this:

Comp %

Yards

TD

INT

59.0

3526

28

17

We can probably assume that if Ponder plays the whole year, he will have more attempts than this. He will be trusted more in his 2nd year, and with AP potentially missing a few games, the offense may rely slightly more on the passing game. This past season, Freeman, Sanchez, and Flacco all had around 550 attempts. This seems like a reasonable number. With 550 pass attempts:

Comp %

Yards

TD

INT

59.0

3802

31

19

Comparing to all 2011 quarterbacks, this is where he would have ranked with these numbers:

21st in Completion Percentage (between Cassel and Dalton)

12th in Yards (between Fitzpatrick and Flacco)

5th in Touchdowns (between Brady and Romo)

5th in Interceptions (between Rivers and Sanchez)

***Please be reminded that this is a projection, not a prediction. This is assuming Ponder progresses from Year 1 to Year 2 in an average amount. Some quarterbacks significantly outgain the average, and some significantly undergain.the average. His 2012 stats could and probably will be quite different from this projection. This is mostly just a study of how much a quarterback can be expected to progress from Year 1 to Year 2.***

20 comments  |  3 recs | 

Daily Norseman Notes on Ponder: A Timeline

Tiny by yanksrule08 on on Daily Norseman


I have been aggregating notes from around the internet on the top prospect quarterbacks in the draft since January, in preparation of sharing them all with you after we chose one of them. Here are my notes on Ponder. Hopefully it will give you a snapshot of the progression of how he has been viewed since January. The date of the note is  in the left-hand column.

Keep in mind that you can find an opinion to back any argument. Haters are going to find things that reinforces their vewpoint, and believers will be able to find things that reinforces their vewpoint too. The important thing is to not put too much weight on any one opinion, but to take everything together and form a general view of how good Ponder might turn out to be.

 

1/25

Ponder appears to be a mid-round prospect that is a leader, a guy you want on your team, but never want to have the game in his hands. Ponder had a weak arm before multiple arm surgeries and doesn't look as accurate as his hype.

 
1/26

Christian Ponder has raised a lot of flags the last couple of days despite having some obvious strengths. The biggest issue is his delivery--he throws with his arm and elbow much more than anyone else here. It’s no wonder he has had elbow troubles and if he doesn’t change his fundamental throwing motion he always will. The accuracy is strong and he doesn’t lack zip, however; he probably has the biggest gun here despite the arm-y throwing style. I am also concerned at how quickly he makes decisions. There have been several instances where he took an extra half-second to process what he was seeing and it let the defender make up enough ground to make a play, when if Ponder would have been quicker he would have had a nice completion. On Tuesday he was a count late to see a wide open Preston Dial down the field and gave Ahmad Black enough time to read and recover. There was a play today where he missed seeing Anthony Allen (GT RB) alone in the flat (both the safety and LB sucked to the TE) and forced a ball down the field. I watched him after he threw it and he immediately saw Allen and just nodded. But he made a great throw on a bootleg where the defense took away his TE and he fired a ball on the dead run into a tight spot. He’s got decision-makers firmly divided in opinion as well--one longtime NFL QB standing within earshot was gushing about him and thinks he’s the best QB here, but another NFL alum QB thinks he won’t last 3 years with his throwing style. The health concerns are weighing higher on my mind than before. 

 
1/26

In a Wednesday conference call, ESPN's Mel Kiper described Florida State QB Christian Ponder as "a poor man's Chad Pennington." He's like Pennington right down to the arm surgeries. Kiper described Ponder as "super smart" but with an "average arm" and confirmed his "stock has slipped a bit." Ponder has been informed that he'd fit best in a West Coast system, which often is a nice way of saying a quarterback has a weak arm.

 
1/29

Florida State QB Christian Ponder was named the MVP of Saturday afternoon's Senior Bowl. Leading the South's 24-10 win, Ponder completed 7-of-13 passes for 131 yards and two TDs. He didn't display great touch, but moved very well and certainly looked like he could play at the next level. However, word all week was that he is a West Coast-only quarterback, meaning Ponder lacks the arm strength to succeed in every type of system. He's shaping up as a day-two prospect.

 
1/30

How Senior Bowl MVP Christian Ponder fares on his Combine medical could go a long way toward determining where he goes in the draft. Ponder experienced multiple shoulder and elbow injuries at Florida State, and is going to have to prove he's not a long-term health risk for any team to gamble on him in the second or third round. Even if his arm is not the strongest, Ponder has the tools to succeed in the NFL if he can stay healthy.

 
2/14

After falling out of the limelight following an injury-plagued senior season, Ponder has re-entered the conversation following his solid week at the Senior Bowl. He is a classic drop-back passer, but has good mobility and athleticism within the pocket. He displays good set-up quickness when working off conventional three-, five- and seven-step drops, and routinely delivers the ball on time. As a passer, he demonstrates arm strength and touch on intermediate and deep throws. He also shows good awareness and anticipation when leading receivers into open windows. With the majority of pro offenses employing some form of a West Coast system, Ponder will experience a late surge in his stock when coaches take a closer look at the game tape. If he checks out medically, expect to see Ponder drafted sooner than anticipated.
2/23

Florida State QB Christian Ponder has shifted gears and now plans to throw at the NFL Combine. Ponder originally intended to ride his Senior Bowl MVP past the Combine, but with so many quarterbacks now planning to throw in Indy, he's made a commendable choice. The only high-profile QB not throwing is Blaine Gabbert. Cam Newton, Ricky Stanzi, Colin Kaepernick, and Jake Locker are all full-go. 
2/25

Florida State QB Christian Ponder revealed that he spent three hours under an MRI machine as part of his Combine medical check. Ponder's numerous throwing arm surgeries are the biggest concern for his stock. He's stayed healthy since the Chick-fil-A Bowl, but is among the greatest injury risks in the draft. Ponder projects as a second-day prospect. 
2/27

Florida State QB Christian Ponder was the "consensus top performer" in Sunday's Combine drills. It's a good thing Ponder changed his mind about throwing at the Combine. Though Ponder's motion does require effort, he showed the best combination of accuracy and arm strength among Sunday's throwers. Ponder remains an injury risk, but he's now aced both the Senior Bowl and the Combine as a potential second-round pick. 
2/27

Christian Ponder of Florida State hurt himself in my opinion after watching him throw on Sunday. He’s already had numerous arm troubles, and as I mentioned at the Senior Bowl it’s quite easy to see why. But when you watch Ponder throw with all the other QBs in succession, it gets magnified even further--he throws completely flat-footed, which means the entire throwing motion goes through his shoulder and elbow. It’s fine when he can set up squarely with his target, but if he has to throw on the move or loses his primary read without time to reset his stance, he’s putting a tremendous amount of stress and unnatural tension on his arm. It’s a shame because I really like Ponder’s West Coast-style accuracy and his intangibles, but if I’m a GM I cannot justify a high pick on a guy with such a glaring injury risk.
2/28

The Cincinnati Enquirer's Joe Reedy writes that Florida State QB Christian Ponder "appears at this time to be the most ready to step in and succeed in (Bengals OC Jay) Gruden’s system." Ponder put on a show in Combine drills Sunday, showing off tremendous accuracy and solid arm strength. Though Ryan Mallett has better physical tools, Reedy thinks he would have been a better fit had Bob Bratkowski's downfield passing game stayed intact. Ponder is a better fit in the West Coast offense. The Bengals are likely to target a quarterback at the beginning of the second round. 
2/28

According to CBS Sports' Rob Rang, Florida State QB Christian Ponder is "generating ... first-round buzz" after an impressive Combine. Multiple accounts claimed that Ponder was the best, most accurate passer in Indy, and Rang passes along growing belief that five quarterbacks could be drafted in the top-32 picks. Along with Ponder, they would be Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert, Ryan Mallett, and Jake Locker. Per Rang, Ponder is now "viewed by some as the top true West Coast Offense quarterback in the draft." 
3/11

NFL Network's Mike Mayock believes that Florida State QB Christian Ponder could "sneak into the first round" after an impressive offseason. Ponder was the MVP of the Senior Bowl, then was widely considered the best passer in Scouting Combine drills. We have Ponder mocked to the Jaguars at No. 16 overall, so we don't find it surprising that he might ultimately be a mid to late first-round pick. Worth noting: Wes Bunting of the National Football Post has Ponder ranked as the No. 1 overall quarterback in the draft. 
3/12

Florida State QB Christian Ponder will be a real possibility for the Seahawks at No. 25 in the draft. Ponder is now going higher than that in some mock drafts, so there's a chance he'll already be off the board when Seattle is choosing. He doesn't have a cannon for an arm, but does have supreme accuracy, and would likely be a great fit in new OC Darrell Bevell's traditional West Coast offense. 
3/16

Florida State QB Christian Ponder "continues to ascend" after showing off "above average arm strength" and "excellent footwork" at the Seminoles' Pro Day, according to NFL Network's Mike Mayock. Mayock's colleague, Michael Lombardi, indicated that many teams now prefer Ponder to Jake Locker. We assume those are West Coast teams, as Ponder's pass placement and athleticism are considered tailor made for the system. Ponder proved his arm was back to full strength, nailing his selection of deep throws Wednesday. Despite an underwhelming college career, Ponder is now seen as the most NFL ready QB in the draft. 
4/4

According to Pro Football Weekly's Nolan Nawrocki, NFL talent evaluators are "increasingly" comparing Christian Ponder to Trent Edwards for his lack of elite ability and proneness to injury. Edwards has been injured in some way (except 2010, as a backup) every year dating back to high school, while Ponder had three throwing-arm surgeries in his final two years at FSU. Nawrocki calls both QBs "inconsistent decision makers" as well. We don't love Ponder as a prospect, but still think he'll go high in the draft. He's a likely mid to late first-round pick. 
4/7 According to Profootballtalk, Florida State QB Christian Ponder has not been asked to return to Indianapolis for a medical re-check this week. Ponder is listed on CBSSports.com's list of players who were expected to be re-examined, but doctors are apparently comfortable with his health. Ponder has been throwing well on the workout circuit after three throwing-arm surgeries in his final two years at Florida State. 

3 comments  |  1 recs | 

Daily Norseman Sidney Rice's Future in Minnesota Depends On This Decision

Tiny by yanksrule08 on on Daily Norseman

 

 The Players' Union is currently seeking an injunction in federal court to disallow the lockout imposed on the players by the league. In addition to that little fact that it will help decide if and when we have NFL games next year, as well as allowing free agency and trades, but also the decision that is made could very well dictate whether Sidney Rice is in purple and gold next year. Per the Washington Post:

 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If that injunction request by the players is granted, the sport would reopen for business and the league would have to put work rules in place. Sources from throughout the sport on both sides of the dispute said over the weekend that the system the league would enact at that point would be very likely to be the same system that was in effect last season, when there was no salary cap in the final year of the just-expired labor agreement between the NFL and the players’ union.

That would mean there would be no player-payroll maximum or minimum for NFL teams. Players with expired contracts would need six years of NFL service time to be eligible for unrestricted free agency, rather than the four seasons required when the salary cap system was in effect; players with expired contracts and three to five seasons of NFL experience would be restricted free agents.

(emphasis mine)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

On March 2nd, the Vikings extended a restricted free agent tender to Rice, and he's a 4 year vet, so if the lockout injuction is granted and the upcoming NFL season is played under last year's rules, Rice will be a Restricted Free Agent and the Vikings will be able to retain him.

But if, on the other hand, the lockout is upheld, the union and the league will only be able to play next year if and when they agree to a new CBA, in which case in all likelyhood, a player will only need 4 years of service to become an unrestricted free agent,

 

So in short: lockout upheld, new CBA (eventually) agreed to = Sidey gone.

lockout lifted, no new CBA needed to play football = Sidney stays (for one more year).

9 comments  | 

Daily Norseman #1 Rush Defense In The Balance

Tiny by yanksrule08 on on Daily Norseman

The Vikings have finished #1 in Rush Defense for 3 straight years, an NFL record. After the first couple games of this season, the Vikings' rush defense got off to a rough start and were ranked in the lower half of the league. But they have fought their way back up near the top, and entering this week, sat at #3.

However, after the Browns ran wild on Pittsburgh, the former #1 rush defense, on Thursday, the current standings are now Bengals #1 and Vikings #2. Which means this week's matchup will decide which team takes over the #1 spot. The Bengals are giving up 81.8 rush yards a game, while the Vikings are giving up 84.2. This means that if the Vikings rush for 30 or more yards than the Bengals today, they will take over the #1 spot (unless they both give up a ton of yards, then the Steelers would move back into #1).

The #1 rush defense for a 4th straight year would be awesome and is well within our grasp. Today's game can help us to achieve that.

9 comments  | 

Daily Norseman Williams's Are Gone

Tiny by yanksrule08 on on Daily Norseman

blah.

Well we should still beat Detroit. Then we need to hope 1 win out of the last 3 games will be enough (Chicago and Green Bay must both lose at least 1 game).

 

I think we can still beat Arizona. Hightower has averaged 2.0 yards per carry in the last 4 games, which means 2 things: 1, their run offense sucks, and 2, they've had to heavily rely on their pass offense the last 4 games, with medoicre success (2-2, including close games against SF and Sea). So airing it out against The Vikings is not necessarily the perfect recipe.

To me, the most important thing about the suspensions is not the run defense, but can we still get pressure on the quarterback? Can Allen continue to create pressue while being double teamed? Can Robison and Edwards step up their play?

1 comment  | 

Daily Norseman Looking Ahead...Potential Tiebreaks

Tiny by yanksrule08 on on Daily Norseman

When looking ahead to the tiebreakers that would be needed in the event of a tie atop the division with the Bears, I am pleased to report that the Vikings are in GREAT position. Let's take a look:

Firstly, the only thing I am going to assume is that the Vikings beat Detroit. If one can assume anything, it must be this.

Case: Minnesota wins 2 out of 3 from: (@Ari, Atl, NYG)

This leaves the Vikings at 10-6. Chicago would then need to go 4-0 (Jac, NO, GB, @Hou) in order to tie us atop the division. In this case, we would both be 4-2 in the division, so we would then move on to the next tiebreaker, record in common games (AFC South and NFC South). The Vikings are 4-3 with Atl remaining. The Bears would be 4-4. So if the Vikings beat Atlanta, they win the division. If they lose to Atlanta, we would move on to the next tiebreaker, which is Conference record. Minnesota would be 8-4, and Chicago would be 7-5.

Summary: If the Vikings win 2 of their last 3, Chicago would need to go 4-0 to tie. But Chicago would lose any potential tiebreaker.

Verdict: Vikings chance of winning division a 100% MORTAL LOCK.

 

Case: Vikings win 1 out of 3 from (@Ari, Atl, NYG). Vikings finish 9-7. If Chicago wins out (4-0 against Jac, NO, GB, @Hou), then they win the division. If Chicago wins 3 out of 4, then we would be tied at 9-7. If Chicago's loss is to GB, then we would win the divisional record tiebreaker. If Chicago's loss is to Jac, NO, or Hou, then we would proceed to a common games tiebreaker. Chicago would be 3-5 in common games. Vikings would be 4-3 + a W or L to Atlanta. So Vikings would win the division.

Summary: If the Vikings win 1 of their last 3, Chicago would need to win all 4 remaining games to win the division. If they go 3-1, the Vikings win all tie breakers.

Verdict: Vikings chances of winning division are extremely good.

 

Case: Vikings lose all 3 of their remaining games (@Ari, Atl, NYG). This leaves the Vikings at 8-8. If Chicago goes 4-0 or 3-1, they win the division. If they go 2-2, we would be tied at 8-8. If one of Chicago's losses is to GB, we win the divisional record tiebreaker. If Chicago beats GB, we win the common games tiebreaker.

Summary: If the Vikings win 0 of theur last 3, then Chicago would need to go 4-0 or 3-1 over their last 4 to win the division. If they go 2-2, the Vikings win all tiebreakers.

Verdict: Vikings chances of winning the division are alive and healthy, despite potentially gonig into the playoffs with a 3 game losing streak.

 

Summary of Summaries: In essence, the Vikings will win any tiebreaker againt Chicago, so you can assume that the Vikings have a 2 game lead in the division right now. If we beat Detroit, there are only 3 games remaining, and we'll have at at-worst lead of 2 games over the Bears. So the only way we lose the division is if we only win 1 of our remaining 3 games and Chicago wins all 4 remaining games (highly unlikely), or we lose all 3 remaining games and Chicago wins at least 3 of 4 of their remaining games (certainly possible, certainly not probable).

So there you go. Talk of needing to win 2 of 3 out of @Ari, Atl, NYG is now false. In fact, if we win 1 of these games, the only way we lose the division is if Chicago wins all 4 remaining games. In other words, we are looking good.

Chances of Vikings making the playoffs: 75%

8 comments  |  1 recs | 

Daily Norseman Aaron Rodgers

Tiny by yanksrule08 on on Daily Norseman

On Sportscenter's Sunday conversation, Rodgers says:

"It's very humbling to get a contract extension in the middle of the season."

 

.....umm.....does he know what humbling means? Not only is humbling used incorrectly, but the correct word would be the exact opposite of humbling.

Idiot.

 

Oh yeah and he looks like a sloth.

 

The end? Nope, need more words....the end? Not yet, hold on....the end.

 

Okay now, now is definitely the....the end.

11 comments  | 

Daily Norseman Gus Is The Only QB In The League....

Tiny by yanksrule08 on on Daily Norseman

to start against the Lions this year and NOT record a career-high passer rating. The 6 (six!) other QB's that have faced the Lions have come away from the game with a new career-high rating.

It is significant to note that the other 6 QB's are all in either their first or 2nd year of starting, so they didn't have many game ratings to do better than.

While this is a sad piece of trivia for the Lions' defense, I can't help but feel this also reflects a little on the ineptitude of Childress' offense.

And while it can be said that Gus has started many a game, so for him to post a career-high would be much harder (especially because his career-high was a near-perfect 157.2 when he led our Vikings over the 49ers in 2003), it is worth noting that Gus' rating in the Detroit game was an 83.0, and all of the other QB's had at least a 110 (I think). And remember that all of these QBs are in their first or 2nd year of starting.

6 comments  |