SB Nation User Blog: yardyoder

Are the Nationals trying to steal too many bases?

yardyoder — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 17:08:20 -0000

The Washington Nationals box score last night was nothing out of the ordinary.

The Nationals had a lot of hits, left a lot of runners on, and quite frankly the team got outscored. Unfortunately another eye-sore which I have seen pop-up all to often in the Nats box score showed up yet again yesterday as Nyjer Morgan got caught stealing for the seventeenth time this season (6th as a National).

The Nationals have had relatively successful offensive output in some categories this season. They are fifth in the majors in on base percentage (.348), and they are tied for sixth in the league in batting average (.268). Yet the Nationals are only 18th in runs, and 30th in wins.

It is clear that the Nationals have been unable to turn their base runners into runs scored and wins...

(cont.)...

In fact, the Nationals are arguably the leagues most underperforming team in the standings. The Nationals have a -7.1 Pythagorean O/U, and that’s after an 8 game winning streak. That means that according to the Baseball Pythagorean Theorem the Nats should have seven more wins than they have now based on the runs they have scored and the runs they have allowed. To put that in perspective, the team with the second worst Pyth O/U are the Blue Jayres, almost 2 wins below us at -5.6. Only three teams have a -5 Pyth O/U, and none have a -4. To put it simply, the Nats are in a class of their own.

That number might be even higher however if the Nationals just scored runs at the rate they get on base.

This brings me back to the box score.

The Nationals have been caught stealing 32 times this season. That number is good for eighth most in the league, however every team that has more runners caught stealing than the Nationals have significantly more successful steals than the Nats. This is the case for the Tampa Rays, who have 156 steals to 37 failed attempts, and the L.A. Angels who have 114 steals to 44 failed attempts. The Nationals only have 56 stolen bases.

That number 56 is 24th in the league, and their stolen base percentage is second to last at 63.4 percent. The Cubs, the only team with a worse stolen base percentage, have a 63.1 mark, but they have 23 less attempts.

Those stolen base numbers get even worse when you realize that Nyjer Morgan has considerably raised them in the 36 games he’s been a National. Without Morgan’s 20 steals to six failed attempts, the Nationals would have 36 stolen bases to 25 times caught stealing. That’s an abysmal 59 percent.

That success rate is abnormally high for Morgan as well. In his career before Washington he only stole bases at a 63 percent success rate, as opposed to the 77 percnet rate he has stolen with the Nationals during a hot streak that has seen him bat 63 points above his career average as well.

Sabermatricians have long claimed the stolen base and other small ball tactics aren’t efficient means of scoring runs, and that teams that rely on them will never be successful. Essentially they’ve argued that an unsuccessful steal is more discouraging to scoring a run than a successful steal is to promote it.

Essentially, stealing bases help, but getting caught stealing is way worse.

Bill James (the man who invented Sabermetrics) went as far to say in his 1983 Baseball Abstract, “Nobody ever has (won a pennant by stealing bases), nobody ever will. It cannot be done. It is an argument that cannot be won, a position that cannot be defended.”

He made this argument after looking back at teams from 1969 to the date of the books publication and compared them head to head. Teams that had a better slugging percentage vs. teams that had more stolen bases won time after time. He also found that teams finishing higher in steals had an average worse finish than teams finishing higher in any other major offensive category.

These findings of course weren’t necessarily because steals hurt he ball club, but teams that steal many bases, attempt to steal many bases, and therefor get caught more often, stripping them chances to earn a run.

A perfect example of this phenomenon is Rickey Henderson. Baseball Prospectus took a look at the career of the all time leading base stealer in their book, Baseball Between the Numbers, and found that the stolen base king’s steal total did not significantly contribute more wins for his team than any other player in history. This is because the base stealer also holds the record for most times caught stealing.

It seems then that the Nationals are doing themselves a disservice by attempting to swipe so many bags, especially if they are not being successful. The club is built to be successful based on major sabermetric principles. They have a strong on base percentage as a club (.348) , and they have players who can slug for power in Willingham (1.009 OPS), Zimmerman (.906 OPS), and Dunn (.975).

www.TheNatsBlog.com

Poll

Are the Nationals trying to steal too often?

Yes

13 votes

No

18 votes

31 votes | Poll has closed

Dallas McPhearson, take a chance on me

yardyoder — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 19:14:48 -0000

In 2004 Dallas McPhearson was named by just about every baseball media affiliate as the next best thing. At the age of 23 McPhearson had just finished what was arguably statistically the most dominant stretch in minor league history. The former second rounder put up a total of 40 home runs between double and triple A for the Anaheim affiliates and posted astronomical slugging, batting, and on base percentages. McPhearson’s talent and potential were considered so great, that the Angels didn’t even blink when deciding not to resign then all-star third basemen Troy Glaus to a new deal in 2005.

Unfortunately as we’ve seen time and time again some prospects just don’t pan out right away. Despite is undeniable hitting ability, McPhearson could inexplicably not hit at the Major League level in 2005 and 2006. It seemed as if he was finally put out of his misery as a hip injury took him out of baseball for all of 2007.

It seemed that the once lock future superstar’s career had disappeared just as quickly as it came. As most former flames do when recuperating from an injury, McPhearson tried to sign a minor league deal with the lowly Marlins. It was here where the third basemen finally found his stroke. At the age of only 27, McPhearson destroyed triple A looking like the kid of old. In 127 games he batted .275/.379/618 with 42 homers.

Going into the spring he seemed all but a lock to win the third base job in Florida over the one dollar man Wes Helms. Alas McPhearson struggled out of the gates and batted only .239/.314/.370 before his surprising release earlier this week.

This move has left many baseball experts scratching their heads, however regardless of the reason for the blunder, I think it provides the Nationals with a great opportunity. In signing McPhearson to a minor league deal the Nats add no risk, and reap several possible rewards. If McPhearson can return to the hitter he was last year, or pre 2005 then the Nats will have a potential 30 homer a year guy they can try and fit into a relatively packed line up. If they opt not to keep the third basemen(yes the position of our franchise player) then they have a solid bargaining chip in midseason trades.

Some may hesitate to go after a player who can only really play two positions, both of which are not viable options for playing time in the Nats lineup (first and third). However the worst thing that can happen if McPhearson succeeds here is that we have a very good potential call-up when players get injured. After all, since when have Nick Johnson or Ryan Zimmerman been the pinnacle of health?

And anyways, regaurdless of his potential performance, he has to be a better triple A option than Kory Casto….

So who's in charge here, really?

yardyoder — Sun, 22 Feb 2009 19:07:24 -0000

Spring training has only been underway for about a week and already peaceful little space coast stadium seems ready to take off.

Everything seemed to be going so well when the club finally got a free agent signed, Adam Dunn, for a contract that was very Nationals friendly. But since that afternoon there has been a severe lack of something very important in the baseball filled chaos that is Florida spring training; leadership.

It started off simply enough, last years opening day starter Odalis Perez refused to come to camp and instead said he would hold out for a new contract. Happens all the time, this is the NFL right? We do see these types of holdouts a lot in a sport like football. A player signs a contract years ago, has outperformed that contract, and with the high risk of injury of the sport believes he deserves to be payed at the level he is now playing.

Well Perez signed his contract this winter....less than a month ago. Perez had been waived by the Nationals after the season ended because they believed he would want more money than they were willing to pay. Both teams got caught in a bind, Perez couldn't find a home, the Nats couldn't find starters. The compromise was made, and Perez was given a chance at a Major League contract...fair enough right?

Evidently not.

"It's odd," Nationals President Stan Kasten said, "It's a first time for me. I don't know what's behind it."

It's good to see that the president of the club has no ability to take charge of this situation. Allow me to translate:

"Huh...this is weird."

No action, no releasing Perez or setting an example to his club that this type of me first team second attitude is unacceptable. No, instead Kasten is content with just sitting around to wait and see if it's gonna be okay.

This was only the beginning of the Kasten quotes. Following the Esmailyn Gonzalez fallout he was just plain angry, but far from professional:

"I'm not exactly sure how to refer to him, so for now I'll just call him 'the Player to be named later..An elaborate scheme..I'm angry. I'm very angry. We've ben defrauded. And make no mistake: this wasn't a college kid with a fake ID. This was a deliberate, premeditated fraud, that involved bribes, along with falsified hospital and school records."

We could all feel his frustration, in fact most of us felt the same way. But while this tirade was entertaining it was oh so empty. Who's accountable? Who's to blame? What's the plan stan?Natstown is looking to you here, and you are throwing a tantrum.

The truth is that nobody will take responsibility for Esmailyn. In a Chico Harlan article with Gonzalez's agent, Stan King, King blamed society saying Gonzalez had to be the victim.

"I don't know where the origins of this thing are. It seems to me this thing is much too complicated and involved for a 19 - or 20-year-old from an impoverished neighborhood to pull off. He may have been duped himself."

"He sounded remorseful," King said (of Gonzalez). "He sounded contrite, He sounded relieved, as if this weight had been lifted off of him."

So if it wasn't his agent's fault, and it wasn't Esmailyn's fault...someone had to blame. What of that shady 'handler' down in the Dominican. You know...the guy who took Esmailyn into his home, fed and clothed him, trained him, and introduced him to the Major League scouts. A nice guy right? Let's not forget the $230,000 commission he gained in the process.

An ESPN the Magazine report by Jorge Arangure Jr. however cites Basillo Vizcaino as blaming Major League Baseball for this whole fiasco:

'What is most troubling for MLB's office in the Dominican Republic is that Lugo(Gonzalez), according to Vizcaino, passed the age investigation requests of at least three teams -- the Nationals, the Yankees, and the Redsox. Two baseball sources said that the Redsox and Yankees received reports from MLB that confirmed that the player was 16 in 2006.

Vizcaino said in each instance baseball investigators, who are sub-contracted by MLB visited the player's supposed hospital of birth, the player's supposed school and his hometown of Bani to interview people and to review documents. Each time the player's identity was confirmed, though major league officials were skeptical.'

Well apparently neither Stan King nor Kasten are to blame, nor his Dominican handler or the scout that founded him Jose Rijo...nope it's Major League Baseball. An easy target to say the least, you'd be hard struck to find ANYONE who is happy with the MLB right now. If that won't work I'm sure someone on the team will blame it on minorities, the rich, the poor, or the Halle Bop comet.

But I'm not buying it, and neither is the FBI who took notice when it realized that some recent Dominican prospects signing bonus money could not be found...anywhere. It let to a major investigation on a bonus skimming scheme that led to the Feds investigating Nats scout Jose Rijo and general manager Jim Bowden.

But Bowden has more pressing matter currently. He has been the General Manager of a team that has gone 284 -363 under his tutelage and currently is put together like a grab bag of McDonalds happy meal toys.

The club has seven outfielders and one legitimate starting pitcher. The Nats made their biggest free agent splash ever by signing Adam Dunn, but their next best hitter already plays Dunn's best position. Now at third string at first base is Dimitri Young who shouldn't really be anywhere except at maybe a Hooters wing eating contest, but certainly not here. The Nats had a great opportunity to trade this surprise All-Star in 2007 and in a sense cash in on a winning lottery ticket, instead they are now paying him $5 million dollars to likley start the season in the minors.

Good call Jim...Good call.

I think Yahoo Sports columnist Tim Brown put it best when he said:

"The Nationals don't win ballgames, they don't fill their new park (apparently they don't even pay the rent on their new ballpark), they accessorize their roster with misfits and then they don't avoid some very humiliating episodes. What they really need is stability, followed someday by credibility."

By the way anyone here from Stan Kasten recently?

"Thanks for writing," Kasten said in an email to ESPN's Arangure Jr., "But I wont be talking about this anymore for a while."

www.TheNatsBlog.com

What comes to mind when you think about the Washington Nationals

yardyoder — Sat, 31 Jan 2009 14:36:03 -0000

We have such a new team, and I was just wondering from the fans, what imagery does the team provoke? The stadium isn't very iconic...yet....Are the monuments in play? or is that too d.c and not enough Nationals? A visual identity is a very important part of building tradition for a young team.

Some ideas:

The metro

The centerfield/metro entrance

The presidents

7th heaven....

what else makes you think about the washington nationals?

Baseball Prospectus releases their Nats top 11

yardyoder — Sat, 24 Jan 2009 05:49:27 -0000

BP, the baseball bible, released today their top 11 prospects for the Washington Nationals today. While this list is similar to Baseball America's, the order is certainly different and it gives a good altering opinion of the teams talent.

The main difference between Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America is that Baseball America ranks their players based on scouts opinions and Baseball Prospectus takes a more mathematical/statistical approach to evaluating talent. Personally I lay my faith in the people at BP more. Year after year they have successfully broken down baseball into an almost predictable science (they are also very funny).

Some people may call them geeks, but I call them geniuses. So without further delay, here is BP's top 11 prospects:

1. Jordan Zimmerman

2. Michael Burgess

3. Ross Detwiler

4. Derek Norris

5. Jack McGeary

6. Chris Marrero

7. Destin Hood

8. JP Ramirez

9. Esmailyn Gonzlez

10. Roger Bernadina

www.TheNatsBlog.com

Nationals FINALLY lower ticket prices

yardyoder — Wed, 21 Jan 2009 22:36:46 -0000

From USA TODAY

"WASHINGTON (AP) — The Washington Nationals lowered individual-sale ticket prices on 14,000 seats for 2009 on Wednesday after ranking near the bottom of the National League in attendance during their new ballpark's debut season.

The team didn't raise prices on any of the 41,888 seats in Nationals Park.

Prices were not changed for the stadium's most expensive seats, including those right behind home plate that cost $300 or more and often were empty when providing a backdrop for TV cameras.

The Nationals, whose record of 59-102 was the worst in baseball, averaged about 29,000 fans per home game in 2008, when they moved from RFK Stadium to their nearly $700 million new home. That put the team 13th in attendance in the 16-team NL, and 19th in the 30-team major leagues.Individual-sale ticket prices were cut by $10 or more in more than 4,500 seats, including 3,000 in the ballpark's lower bowl."

Thank god. I was honestly starting to get worried. The ticket prices were high in general, much less for a team that didn't field a product anyone wanted to see. I couldn't see the team matching even the poor attendance they had last year with the current economic recession if prices stayed the same. People are going to be cutting back on luxuries, and a $25 upper deck outfield ticket is certainly a luxury.
Aside from not having an established fan base, I feel most Nats fans just had trouble adjusting to Nationals Park. RFK was great in many ways. It was incredibly accessible, incredibly cheap, and had its own charm. Let's not forget that RFK was home to many championship teams of both the Redskins and D.C United.
I think the lowered ticket prices will help the team build the fan base it truly needs. The team wont win this year, but if people can associate Nats Park with a good time, and not a whole in their wallet, they may be more likely to go back.
Now just to fix the problem behind the plate....

www.TheNatsBlog.com

Mark of the beast?

yardyoder — Tue, 20 Jan 2009 03:05:11 -0000

I know this is off topic, but our MASN relatives to the north just signed Markakis to a long term deal, but the terms are a bit eye raising...

Markakis is a great player, and once again we are seeing good young talent sign very reasonable contracts (Youkalis, Pedroia, Markakis, Evan Longoria ect....) which is a good thing for the Nats who need to lock up Zimmerman soon.

However, Markakis's deal is a 6 year $66 million contract. I'll say that again......6-6-6....

Must have been written up by Peter Angelos himself.

A look at the talent of Michael Burgess

yardyoder — Sun, 18 Jan 2009 20:17:02 -0000

Coming from Hillsborough High in Florida, Michael Burgess knows he hasn’t accomplished anything yet. A look at the list of notable alumni from the school that shares the same name of its town will tell you why...

He has shared the same mound as flamethrowers Dwight Gooden and Baltimore Orioles closer Chris Ray. He has roamed the same outfield as sluggers Garry Sheffield, Carl Everett, and yes, Elijah Dukes. All of these names leave Michael Burgess as currently just a blip on the radar of immense baseball talent to come from the Hillsborough Terriers.

Fortunately for Burgess it’s no new thing to join elite company. The young super athlete rarely has been the first to do anything in his legendary baseball community. Instead the outfielder is always evoking the names of past greats that have achieved greatness before him.

In the 5A Florida State Championship finals Burgess pummeled a 470-foot home run to centerfield that cleared a 60 foot centerfield wall, a shot to make Mickey Mantle blush. The colossal shot thrilled fans but shocked none. The Sarasota crowd had seen it before; Bo Jackson, Frank Thomas, and Ken Griffey Jr. had all done it during their tenure.

That summer Burgess was in the midst of leading his summer ball club, the Cincinnati Redskins, to a 56-5 record. He was playing for the legendary Joe Hayden who had tutored the likes of Barry Larkin, Griffey Jr., Mark Mulder, and Corey Patterson. During one batting practice Burgess delivered a shot to right center that landed on the roof of the sporting complex close to 500 feet away.

Hayden would later tell reporters that he had only seen one other player do that before, Ken Griffey Jr. But Griffey did it three times.

"Plenty of players come out of the area, but how many are going to make it that’s the question. I think about it before I get on the field, and I try to play my heart out to be the next player out of Tampa, Florida to make it to the major league," Burgess told Sports Illustrated’s Lucas O’Neill.

Hopefully for the Nationals it is the background of Burgess that will push him to achieve greatness. A background like Burgess’s forces humility, it forces drive, and most importantly it forces a talented young man to understand that god given talent just isn’t enough.

The six foot one, 225 pound outfielder was on the fast track to be the number one overall pick out of high school. He opened the eyes of scouts his sophomore year when he batted .505 with 10 homers and 20 stolen bases. He got them to salivate when he batted .511 with 12 homers and 24 stolen bases his junior year. Numbers like that made ball clubs even forget about his 95 MPH fastball and his 0.67 ERA in 20 innings that same year.

He has a build that reminds you of Bo Jackson, and an athletic skill-set that’s not too far off either. In high school Burgess ran a 6.8 60 yard dash and could squat over 600 pounds.

Then his senior year something happened. Burgess had been rated as the nations number one high school prospect, and had won the Jackie Robinson Award for the nations best high school player, yet his senior year he couldn’t muster more than a .338 batting average with only two homers in 25 games.

Burgess had become high school baseballs version of Barry Bonds. It wasn’t anything that he was doing wrong that caused the drop off in his stats, it was the opponents refusal to pitch to him. Pitches in the strike zone became like an endangered species for the young slugger, who saw seventeen intentional walks before his eight game of his senior year.

Burgess’s draft stock plummeted with the lack of numbers and the inability to reach expectations. Many felt that because he would likely slip out of the top 10 picks in the draft, he would attend Arizona State where he had committed to play that fall. This feeling caused Burgess to drop even further in the draft, all the way to the Washington Nationals third pick, and the 49th overall.

The outfielder has had solid success in his first two years in professional baseball. In his first year he combined to bat .318 between the Gulf Coast League Nats and the Vermont Lake Monsters. He Slugged 13 home runs and drove in 42 while reaching base at about .400. Starting in Hagerstown his second season he continued to show improved power but showed way less discipline, batting .249 with 18 homeruns and 136 strikeouts.

It looks for Burgess that while he can hit the ball a mile he needs to shorten his stroke and make sure he’s making contact. The bottom line is a player needs to be able to bat over .250 in A ball if he wants to make it to the show, regardless of potential and power. Burgess claims he wants to be, ‘the first player to bat .500,’ so lets hope he put a lot of time in the offseason to improve his plate approach and discipline.

Outside of the batters box Burgess continues to impress. He has good hands for an outfielder and his rocket arm from the mound transfers to an all-star level gun from the corner spots. He has solid speed but not a lot of base stealing potential. He will likely start the season in Potomac and if he can continue to progress in the batters box, the 20 year old may only be a year or two from sniffing Nats Park.

www.TheNatsBlog.com

Adrian Nieto's amazing story

yardyoder — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 20:52:30 -0000

Adrian Nieto's future has never been certain. At the age of 4 his parents had to decide whether or not to take their young son from the shores of the communist nation of Cuba to a new life in the United States. Thirteen hours into the trip the Nieto's found themselves in a 60 year old raft overloaded with 20 people. The group was lost in the ocean, dehydrated and starving. They had to decide whether or not to give up on their quest for freedom. Minutes before turning back to Cuba and what may have been an equally certain death, the group was rescued by the U.S Coast Guard, and taken to Guantanamo Bay.

Held captive in the very same center that today holds the world's most dangerous terrorists, the Nieto's had no idea what the future had in store for them, or their 4 year old son Adrian. The Nieto's were lucky, they were allowed to go to the states and live with their existing family in southern Florida.

The family made a home for itself. Adrian grew up and attended American Heritage high school alongside future top 10 pick Eric Hosmer. Nieto made his name on the national scene when he hit .381 with four homers and 27 RBI as a sophomore, earning AFLAC All-American honors.

His junior year would however leave his future once again in uncertainty. He injured his elbow and knee and could not compile a full season. Scouts began to worry, teammates began to outshine him, and his draft stock began to fall. Before his injury he had committed to Southern Florida, but after he inexplicably decommitted, confusing and concerning scouts. Nieto put time into his rehab and was able to bounce back his senior year by batting .373 with 21 extra base hits, leading his team to a state championship.

Uncommitted to any school, Nieto turned his attention to the draft. Rumor had it that Nieto was late first, early second round talent. However a much different, much worse rumor was also swirling around. It was assumed by many clubs that Nieto and the Baltimore Orioles had some sort of under the table deal that would stop him from signing with any club except the Birds. This caused the promising young catcher to plummet in the draft, until the Washington Nationals took him in the 5th round. Nieto signed with the club no problem and looks forward to being a part of the teams future.

He expressed his excitement in a great interview with MASN's Kristen Hudak:

"I'm really looking forward to being on the Major League team, hopefully soon, and making them a winner and a contender every year -- bringing them that first championship for all the fans up there because like I said they are really supportive and they deserve that. I really want to be part of that first championship team up there."

"You're never going to forget your first Spring Training. I'm really looking forward to it, to becoming a better baseball player and to make progress, getting closer toward my ultimate dream of becoming a Major Leaguer. (I) just need to get better, every year get a little bit better and try to be one of the best at my position."

Nieto also appears to be a good kid with a good head on his shoulders. He spoke about his baseball influences:

"My favorite baseball player is Pudge Rodriguez. But the guy I really look up to is Derek Jeter, because he's such a big role model, not only on the field but off the field. And he's never really had any problems off the field with controversy or anything like that. He just does everything right. I look up to him because of that. And I want to be like that too. I want to be team captain one day. He's got his own charity too and that's something I would like to have. That's sort of the guy I look up to. My favorite player is Pudge, but I really want to be more of a person or role model like Derek Jeter."

While Nieto's optimism is refreshing, he is still a good ways away from the majors. He is sound defensively behind the plate, and even with the arm injury his arm is still very strong. His true potential is still yet to be seen, however, as he has not had much experience against professional competition. Playing in 8 games with the Gulf Coast Nationals he went 5/23 with 3 doubles and no homers.

As Nieto put it, he "got a good taste of professional competition." He will likely start the season in Hagerstown if things go well in spring training. There is no rush to bring him up as Jesus Flores currently has the Nats catching spot on lockdown.