More photos » by Paul Abell - AP

7 months ago: Atlanta Braves' Jordan Schafer drives in two runs with a single to right field in the bottom of the third inning of a baseball game against the Colorado Rockies in Atlanta, Tuesday, May 19, 2009. (AP Photo/Paul Abell)

Browse more photos »

There are some interesting tidbits floating around the internet today concerning the Braves, mostly coming out of Dave O'Brien and Mark Bowman.

Dave O'Brien speculates on who Atlanta might be interested in this off season. They are the usual suspects such as Josh Willingham, Carl Crawford, Mark Derosa, Mike Cameron and Jermaine Dye. One note that came through via MLB Trade Rumors is that Jermaine Dye would be open to playing first base. I think his bat could be a good fit with Atlanta if we don't resign Adam Laroche, and especially if he isn't the defensive liability at 1B that he is in the OF (which we honestly don't know if he would do well there). The problem would still be the same as with Laroche, however: how would we pay him?

Mark Bowman also weighs in on the closer situation, Adam Laroche, Adrian Gonzalez and Jordan Schafer's future with Atlanta via his weekly mailbag. I am a bit surprised to see him say that the Braves might trade Schafer in the offseason and I had fallen in love with the idea of a Heyward/Schafer/McLouth OF over the next 3 years, but if we are offered the right package I would be willing to move him. I hope they ask me.

CB touched on its yesterday, in that most successful relievers in the MLB were drafted as starters, but the Braves have been drafting relievers with that intention in mind recently and it has left them with some very interesting arms in the bullpen that could be ready to fill holes in just a year or two.

1. Craig Kimbrel B/T: R/R Born:  05/28/1988 Ht: 5'11" Wt: 205
Craig Kimbrel was another multiple attempt draftee of the Braves. They took him in the 33rd Rd in 2007 but failed to sign him. They again drafted him in 2008, this time in the 3rd Rd. and signed him for $391,000. He made his debut after signing and splitting time between Danville, Rome and Myrtle Beach. In 35 IP he struck out 53 batters and allowed only 1 ER while walking 15. Pretty sweet. In 2009 he split 49 games between every full season level posting a final line of 60 IP, 2.85 ERA, 30 H, 45 BB and 103 K.

The positives and negatives of Craig Kimbrel's games are pretty well documented. He led the entire minor leagues with 15.5 K per 9 innings. He also walked 6.8 per 9 innings. One of those numbers is really excited, the other is really frightening. Kimbrel's fastball sits in 93-95 MPH range and can touch 98 when he gets behind it. On top of his fastball being fast it also has plus movement, which contributes to some of the walks. He throws a plus slider which has improved markedly from the slurvy pitch he brought to the pro ranks, and mixes in a changeup from time to time though he rarely needed it this season.

Kimbrel has the stuff to be a top flight closer in the majors. He has allowed only 46 hits in 95 professional innings, given up only 2 HRs and struck out a mind bottling 159 batters. The big negative of course is the walks: 60 BB in those 95 innings is a bit on the high side. He was pretty terrible in Myrtle Beach at the beginning of the season but regained his control in Rome only to see his walks spike again in AA and the AFL. He has managed to remain an extremely effective pitcher despite the walks but that probably won't last against advanced competition. Expect him to start in AAA with a callup at some point in the year barring disastrous results in Gwinnett.

Continue reading this post »

Today we finish off the Top 5 Braves southpaw prospects. Like I said yesterday, there is some good depth here, but after the top guy, Mike Minor, most of the other guys are fairly interchangeable and there are guys that are difficult to rank. Brett DeVall who missed a good portion of the season due to injury and inevitably succumbed to surgery after  the season may not even pitch next year but might have the most potential on the list. Cole Rohrbough is another guy who fought through injuries during the year has tons of upside but couldn't get it done. As a panel we actually only ranked a total of 12 different players between the three of us (as opposed to 14 on RH pitchers and 16 on relievers) but our rankings within those twelves guys were all over the place. (Also for those wondering, Andy Otero was one of the guys mentioned and two of us had him on our lists, but he was the first person off.)

1. Mike Minor B/T: R/L Born: 12/26/1987 Ht: 6'3" Wt: 200
Mike Minor was taken with the 7th overall pick in the 2009 Amateur Draft out of Vanderbilt. The Braves have caught a lot of flack for taking Minor so high (their highest pick since taking Mike Kelly second overall in 1991) and rewarding him with the largest contract ever given out to a 7th pick. While many people disagree on his total potential most recognize that he is a polished pitcher who has a great shot to reach his maximum potential.

Mike Minor led a decorated amateur career. His senior year of high school he won 13 games (12 via shutout) and struck out 188 batters in 86 innings with a 0.08 ERA. He was drafted by the Devil Rays in 2006 but chose to attend Vanderbilt for 3 years where he was a Freshman All American and SEC Freshman of the Year in 2007. He served as the staff ace for Vandy in 2008 and 2009 pitching against the toughest competition in the collegiate ranks. In 2007 and 2008 he played for the US National Team going 8-2 with a 1.17 ERA, 74K, and just 17 walks in 69 innings of work leading to being named Baseball America's Summer Player of the year in 2008. In his brief professional exposure so far Minor pitched brilliantly in a short stint in Rome and has held his own in the Arizona Fall League.

There are a lot of positive's to Minor's game and not many negatives. The first thing scouts rave about is his excellent control and command. He can throw his fastball and changeup anywhere in or out of the zone whenever he wants. He can also add and subtract velocity from pitch to pitch and make adjustments to hitters as they make adjustments to him. He throws a fastball that sits in the high 80s to low 90s with lots of movement. His changeup is considered his best pitch with lots of depth and fade coming from the same arm slot as his fastball. He also throws a slider and curve though reports are the slider has regressed since adding the curve to his arsenal last season. He has picture perfect mechanics and an excellent pickoff move that can be considered a legitimate weapon.

The biggest knock on Minor is his resemblance to former Vandy southpaw Jeremy Sowers who dominated the minors but has struggled since reaching the majors because of a lack of overpowering stuff. He is the archetype for the kind of left handed pitcher the Braves love: full of pitching savvy with sound mechanics and a great changeup. We have seen many of these guys in recent years with varying success. My guy tells me Minor is going to be better than people think, and most think he is probably a 3-4 starter in the big leagues. Look for him to skip Myrtle Beach and start in Mississippi next year.

Continue reading this post »

Since the days of Paul Snyder the Braves scouting and development system has revolved around cultivating young projectable talent. Within that sphere of thinking they put more of their focus on pitching than position players with the idea that it is better to have an abundance of pitching because you can always trade good pitchers for good hitters. And much like a Russian Nesting doll, they focus on left handed starting pitchers. The theory behind this is there are more good hitters than good pitchers and more good right handed pitchers than left handed pitchers so by nature they are more valuable than their counterparts simply for being a rarer breed in general. So with all of that said the Braves have a history of left handed starting pitching depth in the minors and this year isn't really any different though there is separation from the top player and the rest of the group. There isn't as much total potential and several of these guys are similar players (as lefties are wont to fit a certain mold) but nearly half of this list could be ready to contribute in the majors in the next year or so.

6. Scott Diamond B/T: L/L Born: 07/301986 HT: 6'3" WT:190
Scott Diamond signed with the Braves as a non drafted free agent after pitching well for Binghamton for 3 seasons. He used some personal connections from playing in the Coastal Plains league to get a tryout with Braves scouting director Roy Clark and was signed but couldn't join the team until instructional league because of visa issues. In 2008 he posted a 15-3 record between Rome and Myrtle Beach while maintaining solid control and a respectable strike out rate. Diamond was also one of the hardest players for the Talking Chop crew to agree on as we ranked him 2nd, 7th and not at all on our individual lists for lefties.

Scott throws in the high 80s to low 90s. While his fastball isn't very fast, it does have excellent sinking action and produces a lot of groundballs. He mixes in a cut-fastball, curve and changeup. None of his secondary pitches are considered outstanding but his his ability to hit his spots and change speeds is well above average. Diamond also has the classic 'bulldog' mentality that Braves scouts love so much. He is not afraid to pitch inside and challenge hitters. One oddity about his stats is that his ERA was 2.5 runs higher at home than it was on the road this season even though his BB and K%'s were nearly identical between the two. Both Diamond's walk rate and hits allowed spiked a bit this year with his jump to AA, but he was still very effective. His FIP was 3.14 vs a 3.5 ERA with a .366 BAbip so he was a bit hit unlucky on the year.

Diamond passed the AA litmus test this year and looks to move up to Gwinnett in 2010 and could be in the Brave's plans in the next year or two. His entire game is built around changing speeds and keeping the ball down in the zone. Up to this point he has been able to maintain that. Going forward he is going to need to show the spike in walks is something he can control. He looks like a 4th or 5th starter or a solid arm in the bullpen.

Continue reading this post »

The Peoria Saguaros started the AFL season off by losing 6 straight games and now they are 6-8 on the season. Not a bad turnaround. Also they have done it without Jason Heyward in the lineup. Coincidence?

Peoria 9, Surprise 0

• F. Freeman 3-4 2B, RBI, BB
• B. Hicks 2-4 3B, RBI, BB
• J. Lyman 1IP 0H 0R 0BB 0K
• L. Hyde 1IP 1H 0R 0BB 1K
• C. Kimbrel 1IP 1H 0R 0BB 2K

Frederick Freeman's AFL season can be split into two sets of 4 games apiece so far. In the first 4 games he had 15 AB with just 1 hit and 8K. In the last 4 games he has amassed 8 hits in 16 AB (3 XBH) and only 3K. He has brought his OPS up to .841 and he has an OBP of .389. This comes on the same day that Jim Callis mentioned that some scouts weren't impressed with Freeman so far. This kid is still an elite prospect. Brandon Hicks has impressed me so far with 8 BB vs 8K (though 8K is still a lot for 31 AB) and he has continued to hit at a .323 clip. Craig Kimbrel has also been impressive so far, though his walks are still out of line.

Guasave 3, Navojoa 6 - 8th Inning

• M. Young 1-3 2B, RBI, BB, CS(3)
  
• R. Gorecki 1-2 2B, 2 RBI, BB, CS(1)
  

Nothing too exciting going on here. Matt Young keeps taking walks and getting on base. He will never be a star but I think he could give a couple of solid seasons as an ideal backup OF. Does anyone know if Gorecki is actually still with the Braves system or if he is just playing winter ball on his own?

Some of our hitters look like they are picking up the pace.

Mesa 5, Peoria 6

• F. Freeman 2-4 HR(1), K
• B. Hicks 0-1 3BB, K

Freddie Freeman hit his first homer in a couple of months and has been better in his last couple of outings after he apparently knocked the rust off in the first few games. Also of note was that tonight he was batting 3rd which is a couple of spots up from where he has been the past few games. Brandon Hicks is hitting .296 so far and has 7 BB in 34 PA (though 8K also). If he can carry those walks over into the regular season and raise his batting average up to .250 he is going to be useful. Speaking of useful, Lee Hyde pitched a scoreless inning last night.

Gusave 6, Navojoa 7 - 7th Inning

• M. Young 0-3 2 BB, K
  
• R. Gorecki 1-3 BB, K, SB(1)
• T. Gustafson 5.1IP 6H 6R 5BB 1K
  

Tim Gustafson finally got knocked around a little in Mexico. He has been progressively worse in each start though this was his only truly bad one. I am bit surprised to see Reid Gorecki in winter ball, but I have always heard that he is a true baseball rat and plays every chance he gets. Matt Young only has 2 hits in his last 5 games and has seen his AVG fall to .250 though his OBP is .365.

Cody Johnson led the Braves organization in homeruns in 2009.

View full size photo »

As we have already seen, the depth at most of the infield positions is pretty weak right now (except for maybe 1B) and nearly devoid of potential impact players. The OF is a bit different with 3-4 potential impact players in LF alone and several more between the other OF positions. The LF list is comprised almost exclusively of high risk/high reward tools players and demonstrates the Braves draft philosophy pretty well over the past 2 decades. If just one of these guys hit their ceiling we could have a very good power bat for the future. The problem is, that is a big if in almost all of these cases.

1. Cody Johnson B/T: L/R Born: 8/28/1988 HT: 6'4" WT: 195
Cody Johnson is probably the most.....controversial? interesting? prospect that will be discussed on any of these lists. And for good reason too. He was a controversial pick for the Braves when they spent their 1st round choice on him in the 2006 Draft , but they knew then that he was going to take a while to develop and they were willing to give him time. Cody lives for the home run and may have more raw power than any player in the minors right now. The big issue is that is his only real skill at the moment. He is the consummate boom or bust player.

The player that Cody Johnson is compared to most often is Adam Dunn, but there are some flaws with this comparison. Both guys have extreme power, but Dunn has always had very good patience at the plate with a solid idea of what he is doing. He is the perfect example of a 3-True Outcome player (guys who can be expected to either homer, strike out or walk in any plate appearance) and is a good example of Cody's best case scenario. Cody, while still having that power, has yet to show the same level of polish as Dunn, though there are some good signs. This year at Myrtle Beach Cody posted the highest walk totals of his career thanks to a 13% walk rate for the season, and he actually saw it increase after Freeman and Heyward were promoted and 5% better than he was with Rome. His ISOP was a very good .275 in Myrtle Beach which came from 51 of his 102 hits going for extra bases (32 homers, 18 doubles and 1 triple). He ended the year with an .861 OPS though he slumped quite hard in the final month of the season with a .741 OPS (still not horrible because of his good walks totals).

With Cody Johnson's good points comes some pretty glaring bad points. The K-rate is the first stat that anyone points to, and it really can't be ignored. Cody struck out in roughly 35% of his ABs this season. To put that in perspective Mark Reynolds struck out in about 33% of his ABs in the majors this season but he never posted higher than 28% in a full season in the minors and Adam Dunn never posted higher than 24% in the minors and Ryan Howard did put up 34%, but that was at AA and he was 24 years old. Johnson's strikeouts are a problem and won't ever go away and I think they do point to a root problem which is: 70% of his hits go to RF. He is a dead pull hitter which probably creates some exploitable holes in his swing. Cody also is known to be a pretty bad fielder in LF and the stats back this up as he has a career .940 fielding %. Yes he makes an error on SIX PERCENT of the balls he makes plays on. In the OF. Horrible.

Long story short, Cody has one outstanding skill (power) that has improved as he has moved up the ladder and one solid skill (taking walks) that is certainly a work in progress but still an asset to his offensive game. Outside of those two you would be hard pressed to find . But in the end, with just those two skills he posted an excellent OPS while playing half his games in a pitchers park (.790 OPS at home vs 929 on the road)  and had what I would consider a very productive season. Cody does have one other thing going for him: he is only going to be 21 next season and he will probably be in AA. I don't think he is going to set the world on fire in first taste of AA, but he could spend three years there and only be 24. Cody has already drawn praise from scouts for making more adjustments than most thought he was capable of. He has come a long way from the kid who posted a .541 OPS in the GCL. If he can continue to make progress being a more selective hitter, even if the strike outs stay exceptionally high, he will be a useful bat in some capacity. Expect to see him in Mississippi next season after finishing 2009 there.

Continue reading this post »

Looks like Freeman bounced back a little bit.

Mesa 10, Peoria 11

• B. Hicks 2-4 BB, SB(2)
  
• F. Freeman 2-5 2B, 2 RBI, K
• L. Hyde 0.2IP 1H 3R 2BB 1K

Brandon Hicks is hitting .318 in the desert so far with pretty good plate discipline so far and without striking out as much as he did in the regular season. Yes it is Arizona, but he probably could use some confidence building. I am glad to see Freeman hit with some authority as well, though I'm not sold that his wrist is back to 100% yet. And Lee Hyde finally got tagged up after he walked a couple of guys and then gave up a 3-run homer. Still no Heyward.

Navojoa 4, Mexicali 6 - 6th Inning

• M. Young 0-3 BB, K
• C. Rodriguez 1-3 RBI

Nothing much going on yet in this game. Rodriguez did go 4-4 last night with 2 2Bs and Brett Butts picked up his 3rd save for Navojoa. Young also went 0-2 with 2 BBs. Edgar Osuna also made a shot appearance but gave up 2 hits and a walk and didn't record an out before leaving the game.

Sorry for nothing the last couple of nights. The Mexican league games come really late and there doesn't seem to be enough Braves playing some nights for a full update.

Surprise 10, Peoria 9

• F. Freeman  0-5 4K
• L. Hyde 1IP 0H 0R 0BB 2K
• C. Kimbrel 2IP 1H 1R 2BB 3K

Freddie Freeman is having a tough time of it in the AFL so far. He has 8K now in 15 AB though he does have 3 BB also.  Lee Hyde has still yet to allow a run and has recorded 6 of his 9 outs via strikeout. Craig Kimbrel has been himself so far walking a bunch of guys (5 in 3.2IP) and striking out a bunch of guys (4K in that same span).

Mazatlan 0, Navojoa 5 - 5th Inning

• M. Young 2-3 RBI, SB(2)
• T. Gustafson 5IP 3H 0R 2BB 3K

This game obviously isn't over, but I wanted to get a shot of it in. Matt Young has been the second best hitter on this team so far and Tim Gustafson has been great as a starter having allowed only one run through 10 innings pitched so far.

While the middle INF depth chart for the Braves is filled with mostly non prospects, the corner spots are slightly better stocked. First Base of course has Frederick Freeman and a couple of big power guys behind him. Third Base falls somewhere between the talent of First Base and the middle INF positions. Even if they aren't all 'prospects' in the traditional sense, most of the guys here are interesting players with some value going forward. Two guys tied for the top spot in the combined TC rankings: Donell Linares and Jake Hanson. 

1A. Donell Linares B/T: R/R Born: 10/28/1983 HT: 6'0" WT: 199

Donell Linares is one of those guys that isn't a prospect in the traditional sense of the word. He played this season at age 25 at High A Myrtle Beach which made him a full year older than anyone else on the roster and 2-3 years older than many of his teammates. Linares is a Cuban defector whom the Braves signed on June 20, 2008. 2009 was his US debut in professional ball as he just spent a couple of weeks staying sharp in the DSL last summer. With all that being said he put together a solid campaign for the Pelicans and was probably the best hitter down the stretch.

Linares skill set bears some resemblance to fellow countryman Yunel Escobar, but he sports an even lower K rate (14th most difficult to K in the minors this season) and a little bit more current pop. He posted a .772 OPS for the Pelicans, which isn't wowing, but when considered with the fact that this was his first year in the US it has to be considered a success. Another strong indicator for next season is how he improved late in the season. His OPS was 80 pts higher after the All Star break, which was mostly buoyed by a big August where he hit 6 of his 15 homers. Linares is excellent at getting the bat on the ball, which is great, but it also means that he may never walk a ton. His walk rate did improve significantly the last two months of the season but it still was not spectacular. If he can tap into his power for a full season and take a few more free passes he would actually have a bat that could play every day at the major league level.

Linares has little to no speed, going 5/10 in stolen base attempts this season and wasn't anything special in the field either as he committed 22 errors at 3B. He played a few games at 1B and wasn't bad, but without any eyes on data there is no way to make a real judgment on his defensive prowess other than the numbers. He also has very little room for projection  being nearly 26 years old. For him to be valuable to the Braves he will need to be ready in the next season or so, but if he maintains his production as he moves up the ladder he could be a serviceable stopgap if Chipper plans to retire suddenly.

Continue reading this post »