SB Nation User Blog: yondaime4

Braves Rumors for Monday

yondaime4 — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 22:46:16 -0000

7 months ago: Atlanta Braves' Jordan Schafer drives in two runs with a single to right field in the bottom of the third inning of a baseball game against the Colorado Rockies in Atlanta, Tuesday, May 19, 2009. (AP Photo/Paul Abell)

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There are some interesting tidbits floating around the internet today concerning the Braves, mostly coming out of Dave O'Brien and Mark Bowman.

Dave O'Brien speculates on who Atlanta might be interested in this off season. They are the usual suspects such as Josh Willingham, Carl Crawford, Mark Derosa, Mike Cameron and Jermaine Dye. One note that came through via MLB Trade Rumors is that Jermaine Dye would be open to playing first base. I think his bat could be a good fit with Atlanta if we don't resign Adam Laroche, and especially if he isn't the defensive liability at 1B that he is in the OF (which we honestly don't know if he would do well there). The problem would still be the same as with Laroche, however: how would we pay him?

Mark Bowman also weighs in on the closer situation, Adam Laroche, Adrian Gonzalez and Jordan Schafer's future with Atlanta via his weekly mailbag. I am a bit surprised to see him say that the Braves might trade Schafer in the offseason and I had fallen in love with the idea of a Heyward/Schafer/McLouth OF over the next 3 years, but if we are offered the right package I would be willing to move him. I hope they ask me.

Braves Top-10 Minor League Relief Pitchers (1-5)

yondaime4 — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 23:09:58 -0000

CB touched on its yesterday, in that most successful relievers in the MLB were drafted as starters, but the Braves have been drafting relievers with that intention in mind recently and it has left them with some very interesting arms in the bullpen that could be ready to fill holes in just a year or two.

1. Craig Kimbrel B/T: R/R Born: 05/28/1988 Ht: 5'11" Wt: 205
Craig Kimbrel was another multiple attempt draftee of the Braves. They took him in the 33rd Rd in 2007 but failed to sign him. They again drafted him in 2008, this time in the 3rd Rd. and signed him for $391,000. He made his debut after signing and splitting time between Danville, Rome and Myrtle Beach. In 35 IP he struck out 53 batters and allowed only 1 ER while walking 15. Pretty sweet. In 2009 he split 49 games between every full season level posting a final line of 60 IP, 2.85 ERA, 30 H, 45 BB and 103 K.

The positives and negatives of Craig Kimbrel's games are pretty well documented. He led the entire minor leagues with 15.5 K per 9 innings. He also walked 6.8 per 9 innings. One of those numbers is really excited, the other is really frightening. Kimbrel's fastball sits in 93-95 MPH range and can touch 98 when he gets behind it. On top of his fastball being fast it also has plus movement, which contributes to some of the walks. He throws a plus slider which has improved markedly from the slurvy pitch he brought to the pro ranks, and mixes in a changeup from time to time though he rarely needed it this season.

Kimbrel has the stuff to be a top flight closer in the majors. He has allowed only 46 hits in 95 professional innings, given up only 2 HRs and struck out a mind bottling 159 batters. The big negative of course is the walks: 60 BB in those 95 innings is a bit on the high side. He was pretty terrible in Myrtle Beach at the beginning of the season but regained his control in Rome only to see his walks spike again in AA and the AFL. He has managed to remain an extremely effective pitcher despite the walks but that probably won't last against advanced competition. Expect him to start in AAA with a callup at some point in the year barring disastrous results in Gwinnett.

2. Cory Gearrin B/T: R/R Born: 04/04/1986 Ht: 6'3" Wt: 200
The Braves drafted Gearrin in the 4th Rd of the 2007 draft and awarded him with a $186,750 bonus. He was a veritable unknown in college until he pitched his was into the Cape Cod league and onto the prospect radar (Baseball America ranked him at the 29th prospect in the Cap Cod in 2006). He split time between Myrtle Beach and Mississippi this season appearing in 47 games while posting a 2.30 ERA, 41 H, 11 BB and 52K in 54.2 IP.

Gearrin throws a low 90s fastball from a sidearm angle that creates a lot of movement and deception. He keeps it down in the zone creating a lot of groundballs (more than 60% in Myrtle Beach this season). Baseball America rated his slider as the best in the organization and its a true strikeout pitch. His control was an issue in 2008 where he walked around 14% of the batters he faced between two levels. In his prospect book, John Sickels remarked that if he could get his walks under control he would find success quickly. In 2009 he improved to walking about 5% of the batters he faced and could be on the fast track to Atlanta.

Cory Gearrin has a chance to be our next Peter Moylan. His stuff profiles similarly though he delivers from a slightly higher arm slot than Peter. If his walks stay down and he learns to manage LH hitters a little better (add a changeup maybe?) he has a good shot at reaching his ceiling. He could begin 2010 at either AA or AAA depending on organizational needs and could see the majors as soon as next season.

3. David Hale B/T: R/R Born: 09/27/1987 Ht: 6'2" Wt: 200
A lot of people scratched their head this year when the Braves took David Hale with their second overall pick (3rd Rd.). out of Princeton. He is a guy with a lot of talent that just never really put it all together in college, possibly because his focus was split between hitting and pitching. He debuted this season in Danville pitching 16 innings to go along with a 1.13 ERA, 12 K, 5 BB and 7 H.

At 6'2" 200 LBs Hale has the ideal pitchers frame and he generates good velocity with a quick follow through and solid mechanics. His fastball sits at 92-93 and can reach as high as 97, though scouts do say that it is flat and lacks deception. He also throws a slider that oscillates between being loopy and a plus pitch. He also throws a changeup occasionally but it is still developing.

I liken David Hale to Bobby Parnell of the Mets. Bobby wasn't great in college (I would know, I went to college with him) but the Mets saw something they liked and took him and now they view him as an integral part of their future plans. Hale has similar stuff to Parnell and I think the Braves are taking the same approach to him. He is finally getting a chance to focus on pitching full time and I guarantee the Braves pitching staff will be working with him on his secondary stuff in the off-season. There isn't really a consensus one what the Braves will do with him yet. If he shows some competency with a changeup they could give him a run as a starter though most believe he will be brought up as a reliever. Look for him in Rome in 2010 with a chance for Myrtle Beach if all goes well.

4. Benino Pruneda B/T: R/R Born: 08/08/1988 Ht: 5'9" Wt: 170
The Braves drafted Benino Pruneda in the 31st Rd of the 2007 draft out of San Jacinto JC and signed him with a $200,000 bonus. He pitched most of this year with Myrtle Beach and was knocked around a bit more than 2008 when he was fairly dominant for Rome. He was a good bit hit unlucky as he somehow was rung to the tune of a .395 BAbip. He ended the season with a 5.47 ERA (3.96 FIP), 54H, 33 BB and 64 K in 51 IP.

Pruneda is notable for the simple fact that he is just 5'9" and generates a 95 MPH fastball. Not only does his fastball go very fast, but it is also very heavy as he consistently produces excellent groundball ratios at every stop (never lower than 52% since becoming a pro). In 2008 his control was solid to go along with excellent K rates, but in 2009 his control degraded a little bit though his K rate was still strong at 10.7 per 9 innings. Scouts worry about his size and how hard he throws though he hasn't given any injury indications thus far and the continued high K rates are a good future indicator.

2009 wasn't as bad it appears for Benino Pruneda and he should be ok going forward. He just needs to get his walks down a tad and maybe get a better defense behind him when he moves to AA. If the component ratios remain strong we could see him in Atlanta in 2011. He could start next season back in Myrtle Beach or in Mississippi.

5. Jeff Lyman B/T: R/R Born: 01/14/1987 Ht: 6'3" Wt: 225
It seems like Jeff Lyman has been around forever. He was taken in the 2nd Rd (the Braves' 4th pick) of the 2005 draft along with guys such as Yunel Escobar, Jordan Schafer and Joey Devine. With all of those guys running around in the majors (and a couple have been there for a while) a guy like Lyman has kind of fallen by the wayside. He has diligently climbed up the minor league ladder however, and at just 22 years old he has thrust himself squarely into the Braves bullpen plans (he was added to the 40 man roster yesterday). Lyman spent most of 2009 pitching out of the bullpen for Mississippi with a few starts mixed in for good measure. He pitched well posting a 3.12 ERA in 86.2 innings there while striking out 76 and walking 46. In a brief promotion to AAA at the end of the season he did walk 10 in 11 innings.

Lyman is a big dude with a big fastball. He can routinely get the ball into the mid 90s and alternates between a two seam and 4 seam grip depending on how much run he wants to create He also throws a solid curve to go along with a splitfinger that he uses in changeup counts. He has started and relieved in his career but he has found more success as a reliever though his body is built to eat innings. His control has been an issue since he was drafted as he routinely walks more than 11% of the batters he faces though he has gotten better at limiting hits and getting strike outs in recent seasons.

The Braves obviously have a plan for Lyman though I'm not sure what. He would be a good power arm out of the bullpen in the coming years though he could also fill in as a swingman if needed (though Medlen already occupies this role). He probably won't start much anymore after this past season and begin a full conversion to the bullpen. Expect him to start 2010 in AAA with a chance to see Atlanta by year's end now that he is on the roster.

Braves Top-10 Minor League Left Handed Starting Pitchers (1-5)

yondaime4 — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 22:47:10 -0000

Today we finish off the Top 5 Braves southpaw prospects. Like I said yesterday, there is some good depth here, but after the top guy, Mike Minor, most of the other guys are fairly interchangeable and there are guys that are difficult to rank. Brett DeVall who missed a good portion of the season due to injury and inevitably succumbed to surgery after the season may not even pitch next year but might have the most potential on the list. Cole Rohrbough is another guy who fought through injuries during the year has tons of upside but couldn't get it done. As a panel we actually only ranked a total of 12 different players between the three of us (as opposed to 14 on RH pitchers and 16 on relievers) but our rankings within those twelves guys were all over the place. (Also for those wondering, Andy Otero was one of the guys mentioned and two of us had him on our lists, but he was the first person off.)

1. Mike Minor B/T: R/L Born: 12/26/1987 Ht: 6'3" Wt: 200
Mike Minor was taken with the 7th overall pick in the 2009 Amateur Draft out of Vanderbilt. The Braves have caught a lot of flack for taking Minor so high (their highest pick since taking Mike Kelly second overall in 1991) and rewarding him with the largest contract ever given out to a 7th pick. While many people disagree on his total potential most recognize that he is a polished pitcher who has a great shot to reach his maximum potential.

Mike Minor led a decorated amateur career. His senior year of high school he won 13 games (12 via shutout) and struck out 188 batters in 86 innings with a 0.08 ERA. He was drafted by the Devil Rays in 2006 but chose to attend Vanderbilt for 3 years where he was a Freshman All American and SEC Freshman of the Year in 2007. He served as the staff ace for Vandy in 2008 and 2009 pitching against the toughest competition in the collegiate ranks. In 2007 and 2008 he played for the US National Team going 8-2 with a 1.17 ERA, 74K, and just 17 walks in 69 innings of work leading to being named Baseball America's Summer Player of the year in 2008. In his brief professional exposure so far Minor pitched brilliantly in a short stint in Rome and has held his own in the Arizona Fall League.

There are a lot of positive's to Minor's game and not many negatives. The first thing scouts rave about is his excellent control and command. He can throw his fastball and changeup anywhere in or out of the zone whenever he wants. He can also add and subtract velocity from pitch to pitch and make adjustments to hitters as they make adjustments to him. He throws a fastball that sits in the high 80s to low 90s with lots of movement. His changeup is considered his best pitch with lots of depth and fade coming from the same arm slot as his fastball. He also throws a slider and curve though reports are the slider has regressed since adding the curve to his arsenal last season. He has picture perfect mechanics and an excellent pickoff move that can be considered a legitimate weapon.

The biggest knock on Minor is his resemblance to former Vandy southpaw Jeremy Sowers who dominated the minors but has struggled since reaching the majors because of a lack of overpowering stuff. He is the archetype for the kind of left handed pitcher the Braves love: full of pitching savvy with sound mechanics and a great changeup. We have seen many of these guys in recent years with varying success. My guy tells me Minor is going to be better than people think, and most think he is probably a 3-4 starter in the big leagues. Look for him to skip Myrtle Beach and start in Mississippi next year.

2. Edgar Osuna B/T: L/L Born: 11/25/1987 Ht: 6'1" Wt: 165
The Braves signed the 16 year old Edgar Osuna out of Mexico in 2004. He made his stateside debut in 2006 as an 18 year old in the GCL. In 2007-08 he pitched a combined 180 innings striking out 201 batters while walking only 42. Very impressive numbers for a guy who was 19 and 20 respectively in those leagues. In 2009 he made the jump to Myrtle Beach and then finished the year in AA as a 21 year old. While his strike out rate slipped a bit (25% in Rome to 15% in Mississippi) he more than held his own in 13 starts in the Southern League allowing less hits than innings pitched and keeping his walk rate under 7.0%.

Johns Sickels posted this opening line in his prospect handbook last year in reference to Edgar Osuna: "BZZT!!! BZZT!! SLEEPER ALERT!!". So I guess he is a fan. Edgar Osuna has a very similar profile to a lot of guys on this list but he is finding more success at a higher level and has been young for his age at nearly every stop. He might actually throw softer than any of the other guys we ranked in the top 10 (reports have him topping out in the high 80s) but he mixes in two plus pitches: a curve and an outstanding change that is rated the best in a system full of good ones. While he is fairly thin most people believe that Edgar probably won't add any velocity though I think adding 20 lbs couldn't hurt him, especially for durability reasons.

Osuna will probably get at least another half season in Mississippi to hone his skills against advanced prospects. I would like to see a rebound in his K rate, at least back into the 20% range and to see his flyball tendencies reverse a bit (only 35% at Mississippi). He may not be a frontline starter in the majors but at the very least this guy is going to be a good lefty arm out of the pen and useful swing man.

3. Jose Ortegano B/T: L/L Born: 08/05/1987 Ht: 6'1" Wt: 145
Ortegano was signed by the Braves in 2003 out of Venezuela. He made his US debut in the GCL in 2006 in the GCL and then put together an impressive campaign in 2007 in the Appy League with a 1.48 ERA. In 2008 he posted a 4.62 ERA in Rome and was lost in the shuffle of the bevy of pitching prospects that the Braves had there, but the component ratios were strong and his FIP had him at 2.90, nearly 2 runs better than his pure ERA. He was a little bit unlucky with a .362 BAbip even though he was striking out 23% of hitters and walking less than 7%. He was promoted to Myrtle Beach in 2009 and then received a mid-season promotion to Mississippi in July. In 8 starts in AA he posted a 2.83 ERA with 42 K, 45 H and 19 BB in 47 IP.

Ortegano and Osuna are just 5 months apart and have followed each other up the ranks of the Braves farm system. They are very similar pitchers in a number of ways. For one, both of their names begin with the letter 'O'. Also they profile very similarly, as small soft tossing lefties with outstanding control and pitching pitching savvy. The one place that like Ortegano better than Osuna is that he was able to maintain his K rate around 20% after his promotion to AA while seeing only a slight increase to his walk rate.

Ortegano will most likely continue to partner with Osuna on his way up the organizational ladder and they have a similar major league profile though if he can keep his K rate where it is, Ortegano could become the more valuable piece to the puzzle. 2010 could be a big season for him.

4. Dimaster Delgado B/T: L/L Born: 03/03/1989 Ht: 6'2" Wt: 180
Yet another international signing for the Braves, Dimaster Delgado joined the organization in 2007 and quickly made an impression as he struck out 86 batters in 59 innings for the Braves DSL affiliate. He wasn't quite as impressive in the Appy League in 2008 as his strike outs slipped a little but he kept his sharp control walking less than 5% of batters he faced. 2009 was a bit of a breakout season for Dimaster as he paired with the other Delgado in Rome as one of the most dynamic tandems in the Sally League. In 99 innings of work he struck out 104 batters and walked just 26 while allowing just 89 hits. His components were excellent across the board and while he posted a solid 3.61 ERA his FIP was right around 2.9 which is stellar for a 20 year old in A ball.

Scouts rave about Delgado's control and advanced feel for his changeup (heard that before?). He currently throws in the high 80s to low 90s and could add velocity as his body matures. The Braves were actually surprised by how quickly he advanced and how well he responded to being assigned to Rome instead of the initially planned Danville assignment.

At this point Delgado doesn't have a go to breaking pitch. He throws a curve and slider but neither is on par with his change at this point (which is supposedly still a work in progress, but very good none the less). He will move to Myrtle Beach next year and could move quickly like Osuna and Ortegano ahead of him. There is a lot of potential here if he can refine his secondary offerings.

5. Brett DeVall B/T: L/L Born: 01/08/1990 Ht: 6'3" Wt: 215
Atlanta took Brett DeVall with the 40th overall pick (their first of the draft) in the 2008 Amateur Draft. Atlanta scouted him extensively through the East Cobb program and signed him away from a University of Georgia commitment with a $1 mil bonus. He had a brief 10 inning debut in the GCL last year after signing and then made 10 solid starts for Rome this season before being shut down and eventually succumbing to Tommy John surgery in August and will probably miss most (and probably all) of the 2010 season.

When he was drafted DeVall was considered one of the top 3 high school lefties on the draft board. He has an ideal pitcher's frame and was thought to have a clean delivery. He throws in the low 90s currently and could add some more velocity though he already possesses a mature body. He throws a an average curve and change though both have potential to become more and at age 19 in Rome he was young for the league.

DeVall was one of the hardest people for me to rank and in the end I didn't put him on my list at all because of the injury not because of any lack of talent on his part but because I won't see him again until probably 2011. Think about guys like Eric Cordier and Cory Rasmus who both missed full seasons to injury. They both made successful returns this year but how much of a prospect are they now? DeVall still has a ton of potential and many thought he had a ceiling of a #2 starter in the majors, but with his arm injury now his future is a bit cloudy.

Braves Top-10 Minor League Left Handed Starting Pitchers (6-10)

yondaime4 — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 20:03:46 -0000

Since the days of Paul Snyder the Braves scouting and development system has revolved around cultivating young projectable talent. Within that sphere of thinking they put more of their focus on pitching than position players with the idea that it is better to have an abundance of pitching because you can always trade good pitchers for good hitters. And much like a Russian Nesting doll, they focus on left handed starting pitchers. The theory behind this is there are more good hitters than good pitchers and more good right handed pitchers than left handed pitchers so by nature they are more valuable than their counterparts simply for being a rarer breed in general. So with all of that said the Braves have a history of left handed starting pitching depth in the minors and this year isn't really any different though there is separation from the top player and the rest of the group. There isn't as much total potential and several of these guys are similar players (as lefties are wont to fit a certain mold) but nearly half of this list could be ready to contribute in the majors in the next year or so.

6. Scott Diamond B/T: L/L Born: 07/301986 HT: 6'3" WT:190
Scott Diamond signed with the Braves as a non drafted free agent after pitching well for Binghamton for 3 seasons. He used some personal connections from playing in the Coastal Plains league to get a tryout with Braves scouting director Roy Clark and was signed but couldn't join the team until instructional league because of visa issues. In 2008 he posted a 15-3 record between Rome and Myrtle Beach while maintaining solid control and a respectable strike out rate. Diamond was also one of the hardest players for the Talking Chop crew to agree on as we ranked him 2nd, 7th and not at all on our individual lists for lefties.

Scott throws in the high 80s to low 90s. While his fastball isn't very fast, it does have excellent sinking action and produces a lot of groundballs. He mixes in a cut-fastball, curve and changeup. None of his secondary pitches are considered outstanding but his his ability to hit his spots and change speeds is well above average. Diamond also has the classic 'bulldog' mentality that Braves scouts love so much. He is not afraid to pitch inside and challenge hitters. One oddity about his stats is that his ERA was 2.5 runs higher at home than it was on the road this season even though his BB and K%'s were nearly identical between the two. Both Diamond's walk rate and hits allowed spiked a bit this year with his jump to AA, but he was still very effective. His FIP was 3.14 vs a 3.5 ERA with a .366 BAbip so he was a bit hit unlucky on the year.

Diamond passed the AA litmus test this year and looks to move up to Gwinnett in 2010 and could be in the Brave's plans in the next year or two. His entire game is built around changing speeds and keeping the ball down in the zone. Up to this point he has been able to maintain that. Going forward he is going to need to show the spike in walks is something he can control. He looks like a 4th or 5th starter or a solid arm in the bullpen.

7. Cole Rohrbough B/T: L/L Born: 05/23/1987 HT: 6'3" WT: 203
The Braves selected Cole in the in 22nd round of the 2006 Amateur Draft. He debuted in 2007 splitting time between Rome and Danville where he was nothing short of dominant posting a combined 1.17 ERA and striking out 96 in just 61 1/3 innings which put him squarely on the prospect radar. Coming into this season many people probably still would have ranked Rohrbough as the Braves top left handed starter due to his combination of stuff and projectability, but given his results the last two seasons his star has dimmed a bit.

2008 was a bit of a mixed bag for Cole as he split the year between Rome and Myrtle Beach. His ERA ballooned up to 4.40 in the Sally League and then dropped to 3.41 in Advanced A ball. Most of that was due to him cutting his walk rate in half (12.1% to 6.2%) and he was a bit hit unlucky in Rome to start the season. 2009 was a completely different story as Cole struggled all season and posted an ERA of 5.77 in a full season at Myrtle Beach. He started the year flat out dominant in April and May before falling apart for most of the rest of the season.The two things that draw my interest the most are Rohrbough's walk rate has sat around 9.5% of his batters faced over the last two seasons and his K rate has dropped at each one of his professional stints and he was down to 19.5% this season (about 7.7 p/9).

Rohrbough has good stuff from the left side with a fastball that ranges from the low 90s and can touch 93-94. He has always been praised for a spike curveball that is nearly unhittable when he is on and developing changeup. When his control is on he can dominate hitters and toy with them, but he has a tendency to lose command of his pitches and get in trouble.

Cole has as much potential as anyone in the system but with his recent bumps he needs to show that it isn't all for naught. He was hampered by shoulder and ankle injuries last year a bit and one has to wonder if there is something going on there that no one knows about. There have also been some whispers about his mental toughness when things fall apart on the mound. 2010 is going to be a big year for Cole and he needs to prove that he can command and control his pitches and still get batters out.

8. Bret Oberholtzer B/T: L/L Born: 07/01/1989 HT: 6'2" WT:190
Bret Oberholtzer started his second year in the Braves organization pitching for Danville and pretty much dominating the Appy League. He went 6-2 with a 2.01 ERA and a 56-6 K/BB rate in 67 innings pitched. The Braves took him in the 8th round of the 2008 Amateur Draft after the Mariners failed to sign him from the 2007 draft when they took him in the 47th round.

Oberholtzer did what a lot of young lefties do in rookie ball: made most of the league look like fools with an advanced feel for pitching. He has good command of a lively fastball that ranges from 88-92. On top of his fastball he throws an average curve and changeup, but again he can throw them for strikes whenever he wants. Coaches and scouts were impressed with the fact that he wasn't afraid to throw his breaking pitches in any count, even when behind. Bret also possesses a herky-jerky delivery that creates a bit of deception on his way to the plate and with baserunners which led to only 7 people attempting to steal on him this season.

Oberholtzer has nothing left to prove in rookie ball and will look to make the transition from short season to full season ball next year in Rome, which has been a left handed haven the past couple of seasons. I look for him to be successful there as well with his command helping him to keep hitters off balance for most of the year.

9. Tyler Stovall B/T: L/L Born: 12/27/1989 HT: 6'1" WT: 180
Robert "Tyler" Stovall (not to be confused with the Reds prospect named Tyler Stovall) was taken by the Braves in the 2nd round of the 2008 Amateur Draft ahead of guys like Zeke Spruill, Craig Kimbrel, Jake Thompson, JJ Hoover and Richard Sullivan all of whom have moved ahead of him in the organization. Why was he taken first? Well coming out of high school he was the best pitcher in Alabama high school history setting win and strike out records two straight years and was considered one of the top prep lefties in the country last year year, but was raw in some phases of the game. This year he was strangely effective for Danville as he struck out more than a batter an inning for the season but also walked more a man an inning and somehow still maintained an ERA of 3.12.

Tyler brings a lot of good things to the table. For one he is just 19 years old and assuming he goes to Rome next season he will be 20 in his first full season league. He also has a wiry body that still has a bit of projection to it that may add a little more speed to his low 90s fastball. To go along with his lively fastball he also throws an above average changeup and dominant curve that lead to 200+ strike outs in consecutive high school seasons and 57 in 52 innings this year. The scouting reports on Stovall coming out of high school said his stuff was excellent but he relied on his curve too much and it could catch up to him against advanced competition. This season the Braves coaches had him working more off of his fastball and his command was evidence of how little he used it in the prep ranks leading to an astounding 56 walks in 52 innings.

Tyler will most likely make the jump to Rome in 2010 unless he shows in spring training that he hasn't made the necessary adjustments to face the advanced competition. Currently his stuff is exciting but as a starter he can't continue to walk batters at this rate and expect to keep be an effective pitcher.

10. Richard Sullivan B/T: L/L Born: 04/13/1987 HT: 6'3" WT: 235
Richard Sullivan is another Gerogia boy the Braves took in the 11th round of the 2008 draft out of Savannah College of Art and Design. He split the 2008 season between Rome and Danville putting up solid numbers in just 55 innings of work. In 2009 he found himself making starts with Rome, Myrtle Beach and Mississippi (though the stint in Mississippi was more as a roster holder than anything I believe) with mixed results and a 6-14 record on the year and 4.60 ERA. His FIP was about .75 runs lower than his posted ERA though his walks are still a little higher than I like out of a guy with his stuff.

Sullivan is a tall guy on a big frame, so there isn't much hope of him adding any more to his low 90s fastball. His fastball remains an excellent weapon however as he generates TONS of groundballs (about 62% as a pro so far) and gives up few homers. He also has a plus curve that drops off the table to go along with an improving changeup. He also has an odd delivery that helps keep hitters off balance.

Richard is going to be 23 years old next season and while he didn't wow the world at Myrtle Beach I think he will find himself in Mississippi to start next season, and if not at the beginning of the year he will probably find his way there at some point. I would like to see him raise the strike out totals some, but his ability to induce groundballs will make up for the lack of Ks he gets and may mean he could actually improve as his defenses improve behind him.

Atlanta Braves Winter League Roundup: 10/28

yondaime4 — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 05:06:48 -0000

The Peoria Saguaros started the AFL season off by losing 6 straight games and now they are 6-8 on the season. Not a bad turnaround. Also they have done it without Jason Heyward in the lineup. Coincidence?

Peoria 9, Surprise 0

F. Freeman 3-4 2B, RBI, BB
B. Hicks 2-4 3B, RBI, BB
J. Lyman 1IP 0H 0R 0BB 0K
L. Hyde 1IP 1H 0R 0BB 1K
C. Kimbrel 1IP 1H 0R 0BB 2K

Frederick Freeman's AFL season can be split into two sets of 4 games apiece so far. In the first 4 games he had 15 AB with just 1 hit and 8K. In the last 4 games he has amassed 8 hits in 16 AB (3 XBH) and only 3K. He has brought his OPS up to .841 and he has an OBP of .389. This comes on the same day that Jim Callis mentioned that some scouts weren't impressed with Freeman so far. This kid is still an elite prospect. Brandon Hicks has impressed me so far with 8 BB vs 8K (though 8K is still a lot for 31 AB) and he has continued to hit at a .323 clip. Craig Kimbrel has also been impressive so far, though his walks are still out of line.

Guasave 3, Navojoa 6 - 8th Inning

M. Young 1-3 2B, RBI, BB, CS(3)
R. Gorecki 1-2 2B, 2 RBI, BB, CS(1)

Nothing too exciting going on here. Matt Young keeps taking walks and getting on base. He will never be a star but I think he could give a couple of solid seasons as an ideal backup OF. Does anyone know if Gorecki is actually still with the Braves system or if he is just playing winter ball on his own?

Atlanta Braves Winter League Roundup: 10/27

yondaime4 — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 05:33:33 -0000

Some of our hitters look like they are picking up the pace.

Mesa 5, Peoria 6

F. Freeman 2-4 HR(1), K
B. Hicks 0-1 3BB, K

Freddie Freeman hit his first homer in a couple of months and has been better in his last couple of outings after he apparently knocked the rust off in the first few games. Also of note was that tonight he was batting 3rd which is a couple of spots up from where he has been the past few games. Brandon Hicks is hitting .296 so far and has 7 BB in 34 PA (though 8K also). If he can carry those walks over into the regular season and raise his batting average up to .250 he is going to be useful. Speaking of useful, Lee Hyde pitched a scoreless inning last night.

Gusave 6, Navojoa 7 - 7th Inning

M. Young 0-3 2 BB, K
R. Gorecki 1-3 BB, K, SB(1)
T. Gustafson 5.1IP 6H 6R 5BB 1K

Tim Gustafson finally got knocked around a little in Mexico. He has been progressively worse in each start though this was his only truly bad one. I am bit surprised to see Reid Gorecki in winter ball, but I have always heard that he is a true baseball rat and plays every chance he gets. Matt Young only has 2 hits in his last 5 games and has seen his AVG fall to .250 though his OBP is .365.

Braves Top-5 Minor League Left Fielders

yondaime4 — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 16:40:34 -0000

Cody Johnson led the Braves organization in homeruns in 2009.

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As we have already seen, the depth at most of the infield positions is pretty weak right now (except for maybe 1B) and nearly devoid of potential impact players. The OF is a bit different with 3-4 potential impact players in LF alone and several more between the other OF positions. The LF list is comprised almost exclusively of high risk/high reward tools players and demonstrates the Braves draft philosophy pretty well over the past 2 decades. If just one of these guys hit their ceiling we could have a very good power bat for the future. The problem is, that is a big if in almost all of these cases.

1. Cody Johnson B/T: L/R Born: 8/28/1988 HT: 6'4" WT: 195
Cody Johnson is probably the most.....controversial? interesting? prospect that will be discussed on any of these lists. And for good reason too. He was a controversial pick for the Braves when they spent their 1st round choice on him in the 2006 Draft , but they knew then that he was going to take a while to develop and they were willing to give him time. Cody lives for the home run and may have more raw power than any player in the minors right now. The big issue is that is his only real skill at the moment. He is the consummate boom or bust player.

The player that Cody Johnson is compared to most often is Adam Dunn, but there are some flaws with this comparison. Both guys have extreme power, but Dunn has always had very good patience at the plate with a solid idea of what he is doing. He is the perfect example of a 3-True Outcome player (guys who can be expected to either homer, strike out or walk in any plate appearance) and is a good example of Cody's best case scenario. Cody, while still having that power, has yet to show the same level of polish as Dunn, though there are some good signs. This year at Myrtle Beach Cody posted the highest walk totals of his career thanks to a 13% walk rate for the season, and he actually saw it increase after Freeman and Heyward were promoted and 5% better than he was with Rome. His ISOP was a very good .275 in Myrtle Beach which came from 51 of his 102 hits going for extra bases (32 homers, 18 doubles and 1 triple). He ended the year with an .861 OPS though he slumped quite hard in the final month of the season with a .741 OPS (still not horrible because of his good walks totals).

With Cody Johnson's good points comes some pretty glaring bad points. The K-rate is the first stat that anyone points to, and it really can't be ignored. Cody struck out in roughly 35% of his ABs this season. To put that in perspective Mark Reynolds struck out in about 33% of his ABs in the majors this season but he never posted higher than 28% in a full season in the minors and Adam Dunn never posted higher than 24% in the minors and Ryan Howard did put up 34%, but that was at AA and he was 24 years old. Johnson's strikeouts are a problem and won't ever go away and I think they do point to a root problem which is: 70% of his hits go to RF. He is a dead pull hitter which probably creates some exploitable holes in his swing. Cody also is known to be a pretty bad fielder in LF and the stats back this up as he has a career .940 fielding %. Yes he makes an error on SIX PERCENT of the balls he makes plays on. In the OF. Horrible.

Long story short, Cody has one outstanding skill (power) that has improved as he has moved up the ladder and one solid skill (taking walks) that is certainly a work in progress but still an asset to his offensive game. Outside of those two you would be hard pressed to find . But in the end, with just those two skills he posted an excellent OPS while playing half his games in a pitchers park (.790 OPS at home vs 929 on the road) and had what I would consider a very productive season. Cody does have one other thing going for him: he is only going to be 21 next season and he will probably be in AA. I don't think he is going to set the world on fire in first taste of AA, but he could spend three years there and only be 24. Cody has already drawn praise from scouts for making more adjustments than most thought he was capable of. He has come a long way from the kid who posted a .541 OPS in the GCL. If he can continue to make progress being a more selective hitter, even if the strike outs stay exceptionally high, he will be a useful bat in some capacity. Expect to see him in Mississippi next season after finishing 2009 there.

2. Adam Milligan B/T: L/R Born: 03/14/1988 HT: 6'3" WT: 210
The Legend of Adam Milligan got off to a good start this season as he had and excellent debut in the system between 3 levels of ball (Danville, Rome and a short stint with Myrtle Beach). I only say he has a legend because of how many times I heard or read about him being drafted by the Braves 3 times. Obviously he is a guy the Braves wanted and finally got and he showed a bit of why this season.

Alan Matthews for Baseball America said that Milligan was "built like a Greek god" after the Braves took him the second time in 2007. He shows great raw power which led to an ISOP of .247 in almost 200 ABs in Rome and posted a .972 OPS. He pretty much raked from the time he started playing this year and didn't stop until his short promotion to the Carolina League (he had 25 PAs). Matt Forman (not me, I'm Matt ForEman) for Baseball America was asked about Milligan by a reader named Gondeee (from Atlanta) in a chat wrap and said that most scouts really like his hit tool, but no one is sure how it will translate as he moves up. I feel like this is true of most prospects but we have only seen one season of Milligan so far.

Adam didn't strike out a ton in his first season (about 20% at Rome which is acceptable) but he also didn't walk much at all (5.7% in Rome). Milligan is considered to be a bit a bit raw at the plate and the walks are a sign of that. If he can develop some ability to take a walk (like most young players) and keep the Ks in line he is going to be a very interesting bat. A good start to next season can put him on a lot of people's prospect radars. Next year could be his coming out party.

3. Willie Cabrera B/T: R/R Born: 08/03/1986 HT: 5'11" WT: 185
Willie Cabrera has long been a favorite player of mine for no real reason that I can ascertain. He was drafted by the Braves in the 14th round of the 2005 draft out of Los Angeles Pierce JC. Cabrera played most of this season as a 22 year old in AA which is right about where you want a solid prospect to be. He played mostly infield in college and high school and actually had a season ending knee injury his Jr. year of high school but came back for his Sr season and helped lead his high school team to the top of Baseball America's post season rankings.

Getting a good read on what Willie can do isn't the easiest task in the world because his seasons are a but if a mixed bag. After posting a .645 OPS between Rome and Myrtle Beach in 2007, Willie had a bit of a breakout season back at Myrtle Beach last year with an .818 OPS along with 16 HR (more than the previous 2 seasons combined). At first glance this season looks like a bit of a regression as he posted just a .735 OPS with 8 HR in Mississippi, but there are a couple of counter points to that. First Mississippi is one of the toughest parks in the minors to hit in and his stats bear this out (784 OPS on the road vs 680 at home). Also, Willie improved significantly as the season wore on as he posted a .960 OPS in August and was over .800 in June and July after struggling to start the season.

Willie doesn't walk a bunch even though he has shown solid improvement since being drafted but he also doesn't strike out a lot. He has a smooth line drive stroke that keeps the bat in the zone for a long time which results in a lot of contact. His speed is not an asset and his defense has gone from pretty bad to OK in the last couple of seasons. Willie has to potential to be a solid 4th outfielder in the majors but to do that he needs to show that the power he flashed in 2008 wasn't a fluke. Otherwise you are looking a slap hitter who doesn't hit for high average, doesn't take walks and can't steal bases.

4. Robert Hefflinger B/T: R/R Born: 01/03/1990 HT: 6'5" WT: 225
Robby Hefflinger is a typical Braves draft pick. He is a young, toolsy Georgia native with lots of projection. Atlanta took him in the 7th round of the 2009 draft out of Georgia Perimeter College and he started his pro career with Danville. At 6'5" and 225 LBs he is one of the most physically imposing figures in the system and shares a few similarities with Adam Milligan. Both guys generate a lot of power with their big frames and both guys have some issues with plate discipline.

Hefflinger's debut in Danville was solid if unspectacular. He started strong out of the shoot hitting 4 HR in his first month with a .939 OPS. He fell back to earth in July and August and finished the year with a .671 OPS. His calling card is of course his power as he hit 11 HR in his season at Perimeter College. Robby was originally a UGA recruit in 2008 but opted for JuCo instead in hopes of improving his draft stock. He pitched and played the OF as well as serving as the team's backup catcher and was actually considered by some teams as a pitcher after he went 7-0 with a 2.68 ERA. Most teams were impressed enough with his bat to give him a shot as an OF and the Braves jumped him straight to Danville, skipping the GCL entirely. Having been a catcher and a pitcher he shows a strong arm from the OF but he is still learning the nuances of the position.

Hefflinger has the same caveats as most young, toolsy prospects. He needs to improve his plate discipline and cut down on his strike outs. Currently he has excellent tools but it is still too early to predict what will happen with him. Look for him to start 2010 with Rome.

5. Layton Hiller B/T: R/R Born: 05/18/1988 HT: 6'3" WT: 220
Layton Hiller is cut from the same mold as Adam Milligan and Robby Hefflinger. He is a big, physical guy with lots of power. He was taken in the 15th round of the 2008 draft out of Blinn JC in Texas. He led the team in AVG, 2B, HR and RBI and posted a .724 SLG in his final season there. Scouts and coaches love his big body and his tape measure shots.

Hiller began 2009 in the GCL as a 21 year old, already a knock against him, and posted nearly an .800 OPS in 197 ABs. This clearly isn't ideal as he is already 2 years older than what Hefflinger played at in Danville. That said, as similar as his tools are to Milligan and Hefflinger, he is much more raw than those two as he walked in only about 3% of his ABs this season. He was a bit better last year in the GCL with closer to 7% walks but that still isn't ideal for 20 year old in the GCL. I get the feeling that Hiller is enamored with hitting home runs and when he is mashing (he did post a .207 ISOP in the GCL which is solid for that league) he forgets about the other aspects of the game.

The prognosis for Hiller is the same as for Hefflinger. Strike out less and walk more, but do it faster because you are older. Layton finished 2009 with a short stint in Rome and with his age he will probably start back there in 2010. He needs to improve vastly and quickly if he wants to become a true prospect. The tools are there but the skills aren't.

Atlanta Braves Winter League Recaps: 10/23

yondaime4 — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 04:52:02 -0000

Looks like Freeman bounced back a little bit.

Mesa 10, Peoria 11

B. Hicks 2-4 BB, SB(2)
F. Freeman 2-5 2B, 2 RBI, K
L. Hyde 0.2IP 1H 3R 2BB 1K

Brandon Hicks is hitting .318 in the desert so far with pretty good plate discipline so far and without striking out as much as he did in the regular season. Yes it is Arizona, but he probably could use some confidence building. I am glad to see Freeman hit with some authority as well, though I'm not sold that his wrist is back to 100% yet. And Lee Hyde finally got tagged up after he walked a couple of guys and then gave up a 3-run homer. Still no Heyward.

Navojoa 4, Mexicali 6 - 6th Inning

M. Young 0-3 BB, K
C. Rodriguez 1-3 RBI

Nothing much going on yet in this game. Rodriguez did go 4-4 last night with 2 2Bs and Brett Butts picked up his 3rd save for Navojoa. Young also went 0-2 with 2 BBs. Edgar Osuna also made a shot appearance but gave up 2 hits and a walk and didn't record an out before leaving the game.

Atlanta Braves Winter League Recap: 10/21

yondaime4 — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 04:45:44 -0000

Sorry for nothing the last couple of nights. The Mexican league games come really late and there doesn't seem to be enough Braves playing some nights for a full update.

Surprise 10, Peoria 9

F. Freeman 0-5 4K
L. Hyde 1IP 0H 0R 0BB 2K
C. Kimbrel 2IP 1H 1R 2BB 3K

Freddie Freeman is having a tough time of it in the AFL so far. He has 8K now in 15 AB though he does have 3 BB also. Lee Hyde has still yet to allow a run and has recorded 6 of his 9 outs via strikeout. Craig Kimbrel has been himself so far walking a bunch of guys (5 in 3.2IP) and striking out a bunch of guys (4K in that same span).

Mazatlan 0, Navojoa 5 - 5th Inning

M. Young 2-3 RBI, SB(2)
T. Gustafson 5IP 3H 0R 2BB 3K

This game obviously isn't over, but I wanted to get a shot of it in. Matt Young has been the second best hitter on this team so far and Tim Gustafson has been great as a starter having allowed only one run through 10 innings pitched so far.

Braves Top-5 Minor League Third Basemen

yondaime4 — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 21:35:38 -0000

While the middle INF depth chart for the Braves is filled with mostly non prospects, the corner spots are slightly better stocked. First Base of course has Frederick Freeman and a couple of big power guys behind him. Third Base falls somewhere between the talent of First Base and the middle INF positions. Even if they aren't all 'prospects' in the traditional sense, most of the guys here are interesting players with some value going forward. Two guys tied for the top spot in the combined TC rankings: Donell Linares and Jake Hanson.

1A. Donell Linares B/T: R/R Born: 10/28/1983 HT: 6'0" WT: 199

Donell Linares is one of those guys that isn't a prospect in the traditional sense of the word. He played this season at age 25 at High A Myrtle Beach which made him a full year older than anyone else on the roster and 2-3 years older than many of his teammates. Linares is a Cuban defector whom the Braves signed on June 20, 2008. 2009 was his US debut in professional ball as he just spent a couple of weeks staying sharp in the DSL last summer. With all that being said he put together a solid campaign for the Pelicans and was probably the best hitter down the stretch.

Linares skill set bears some resemblance to fellow countryman Yunel Escobar, but he sports an even lower K rate (14th most difficult to K in the minors this season) and a little bit more current pop. He posted a .772 OPS for the Pelicans, which isn't wowing, but when considered with the fact that this was his first year in the US it has to be considered a success. Another strong indicator for next season is how he improved late in the season. His OPS was 80 pts higher after the All Star break, which was mostly buoyed by a big August where he hit 6 of his 15 homers. Linares is excellent at getting the bat on the ball, which is great, but it also means that he may never walk a ton. His walk rate did improve significantly the last two months of the season but it still was not spectacular. If he can tap into his power for a full season and take a few more free passes he would actually have a bat that could play every day at the major league level.

Linares has little to no speed, going 5/10 in stolen base attempts this season and wasn't anything special in the field either as he committed 22 errors at 3B. He played a few games at 1B and wasn't bad, but without any eyes on data there is no way to make a real judgment on his defensive prowess other than the numbers. He also has very little room for projection being nearly 26 years old. For him to be valuable to the Braves he will need to be ready in the next season or so, but if he maintains his production as he moves up the ladder he could be a serviceable stopgap if Chipper plans to retire suddenly.

1B. Jake Hanson B/T: R/R Born: 11/20/1989 HT: 6'0" WT: 180

If Linares ranks at the top of this list because of his current toolset, Jake Hanson ranks up here because of future projection. Taken in the 14th Rd in the 2008 amateur draft, Hanson won't be 20 years old until November and still has plenty of room for projection in his body. He debuted in the GCL last season and posted .721 OPS (which is about 50 pts better than league average in the GCL). This year Hanson returned to the GCL and had a mini-breakout where he posted an .842 OPS ranking him in the top 10 in the league.

The biggest area that Hanson improved upon was his power production (Which is to be expected of someone who is a teenager!). In 2008 he slugged .345 with an ISOP of .090 which both would have put him around league average. In 2009 he improved that to .450 and .170 respectively (this year's league AVGs were .335 SLG and .097 ISOP). Another skill that Jake is already showing is the ability to take walks. He has walked in a little over 12% of his PAs since being drafted which is superb, especially for someone his age.

Right now Jake's biggest problem is what most young players struggle with: strikeouts. In his pro career he has struck out in about 24% of his PAs. He has time to correct this and with him already showing the ability to take a walk, even if the Ks stay where they are he could still be a valuable offensive player. His defense is rough around the edges since he was a SS in high school and has been making the transition to 3B, but there is no reason to believe he can't stick there long term. He just needs some seasoning. Hanson impressed the Braves in his pre-draft workout last year and is known to be an extremely hard worker. At this point he just needs to let his body mature and adds its natural strength and improve his already solid skill base. Jake Hanson could turn out to be another great find for the Braves scouting department. He has nothing left to prove in the GCL, so expect to see him start next year at Danville in the Appalachian league (unless he really impresses in spring workouts).

3. Jordan Kreke B/T: R/R Born: 03/21/1987 HT: 6'1" WT: 205

Jordan Kreke was taken by the Braves in the 13th round in the 2009 amateur draft. He made his debut in Danville as the everyday third basemen after being a shortstop in college. Kreke comes into the system with as a Louisville Slugger Third Team All American after he posted a .394 AVG for Eastern Illinois this season.

Kreke showed improvement every year in college going from a .567 OPS in limited playing time his freshman year to to being a 3 time player of the week (a record) in the Ohio Valley Conference. He hit for more power his Sr. season with 32 extra base hits (his previous high was 25) and hit 13 homers after only hitting 4 in his first three seasons. Jordan's pro debut wasn't quite as successful as his Sr. season as he posted just a .712 OPS for Danville at 22 years old. His power all but vanished but he did maintain a solid AVG and OBP. He shows a polished college approach that leads to a decent number of walks and low strike out totals.

Kreke needs to rediscover his power in order to become a viable 3B prospect. He also needs to make the most of his opportunities. At present his offense plays more towards the middle of the INF and less on a corner. He has never been much a stolen base threat and his defense is still developing at 3B after switching positions opon being drafted. Look for Kreke to start 2010 in Rome unless he wows the world and gets a bump to Myrtle Beach.

4. Edison Sanchez B/T: R/R Born: 11/01/1990 HT: 6'4" WT: 195

Edison Sanchez had one of the best seasons in the DSL this season posting a .921 OPS as an 18 year old. When looking through his profile there really isn't much to like about him. At 18 he is already an imposing figure on the diamond at 6'4" and stands to fill out his frame as he matures. Atlanta's front office also rewarded his great season by making him the DSL Minor League Player of the Year.

Sanchez flashed solid power in his second season in the DSL as he knocked 4 HR to go along with 4 triples and 7 doubles. His ISOP was a solid .175 (solid for the DSL at least) and he should add more power as he puts on muscle. The most impressive stat concerning this 18 year old is his walk rate. In two seasons in the DSL he has walked right around a 17% clip. That is absolutely phenomenal for any level. His 34/42 K/BB rate bodes well for his future success.

DSL stats are not always the easiest to interpret because it is difficult to gauge the level of competition and field conditions that players are competing in, so any time a guy puts up great stats in a complex league they have to be taken with a tiny grain of salt. That said the stats cannot really be ignored either. On the surface Edison Sanchez appears to be a very solid prospect going forward. The only knock on him long term may be that he outgrows 3B. Granted 3B is a position for big guys, but if he grows much more he could lose the mobility that allows him to stay there. Sanchez could move up to the GCL or Danville next season depending on the depth and his performance in spring training. If he gets off to a hot start there could be a lot of buzz surrounding him.

5. Van Pope B/T: R/R Born: 02/26/1984 HT: 6'0" WT: 200

Ah Van Pope, at one time the heir apparent to Chipper Jones. Alas, no more. Pope peaked in 2006 in Myrtle Beach where he posted a .783 OPS (when Myrtle Beach was still death to hitters) along with 15 homers (about 10 more than he has ever hit at any other level). Since then he has regressed in most facets of his offensive game though his one above average tool, his defense, has remained intact.

At one time Van Pope looked like he was going to develop into a power hitting 3B prospect with gold glove defense and a solid eye at the plate. Now at age 25, his career isn't over, but he is going to have turn things around soon or be passed up by other players, especially the way Frank Wren has been releasing veteran minor leaguers who may still have potential. In the three seasons since he hit 15 HR in Myrtle Beach Pope has hit just 14 total since then seeing his ISOP go from .167 down to .087 this season. He still doesn't strike out a ton, and his walks have actually improved since falling off a cliff after the 2005 season. He did suffer from a horribly low BABIP (.238) even though he had a really high line drive %.

There are still some things here to like about Van Pope. Obviously the Gold Glove caliber defense is worthwhile and could probably get him a roster spot somewhere. Unfortunately he just isn't going to stick anywhere until the bat comes around. There is still a little light at the end of this tunnel, but wherever his power has gone he needs to go find it again. His walk and K rates are solid enough to rate as average. Expect to see Van Pope back in Gwinnett to start the 2010 season and if things don't turn around, don't expect to see him after that.