SB Nation User Blog: youALREADYknow

The Forgotten...

youALREADYknow — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 12:19:30 -0000

So now that the preseason is underway and we start to see who/what we have.... I thought I'd step back and look at those we may have lost. I'll simply refer to them from this point on as The Forgotten...

April 25th, 2009 - The San Francisco 49ers are on the clock..... *We have a trade*... the San Francisco 49ers have traded the 43rd overall pick in the 2009 NFL Draft to the Carolina Panthers....

Members of The Forgotten:

DE Everette Brown - 1 GM, 1 Tkl, Sack

CB Sean Smith - 1 GM, 1 Tkl, Int

OLB Clint Sintim - 1 GM, 1.5 Tkl, Sack

OLB Connor Barwin - 1 GM, 1 Tkl, Sack, PD

Since there was such a huge split among 49ers fans about that trade, I think it will be interesting (hopefully not too controversial) to track the progress of these players throughout the season and see whether it was worth the risk to wait a year to get another prospect. Obviously we will erase the numbers once the season starts, but until then we will track The Forgotten....

(Please post if you feel someone has been left off this list, but this was the consensus "short list" that I remember from draft day)

Day 1 Draft Recap - Winners/Losers

youALREADYknow — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 01:56:21 -0000

Well, one day down and it was a crazy day of trades and players slipping down draft boards. Everyone share their thoughts about which teams you thought had a great draft, which teams you thought had a terrible draft, and thoughts about the 49ers first round.

My favorite drafts so far:

1. Dolphins - Grade: A+ - Were able to trade back in the 2nd round and still land a top CB prospect. Parcells likes large, physical CB's and got the 2nd and 3rd best press CB's in this year's class. Davis and Smith could end up being the best CB's in this year's class, especially since Jenkins may be moved to FS. As the primary Wildcat offense team in the league, drafting Pat White should show immediate results on the field and they could have their QB of the future regardless of offensive system.

2. Patriots - Grade: A - Started the day with picks 23, 34, 47, and 58. Ended the day with the same number of picks, but now have four 3rd round selections. Drafted the 2nd rated NT on the board, 2nd rated CB on a lot of boards, 2nd rated SS on the board, and the last of the 2nd tier of OT's. Trading up to get Brace and Butler was perhaps the best trade of the day.

3. Bengals - Grade: B+ - Didn't make any trades, but selected incredibly talented players at spots where they were a great value. Andre Smith and Rey Maualuga are very likely to have 10+ year careers in the NFL and will both be able to start from day one.

The worst drafts so far:

1. Raiders - Grade: F - Not only could the Raiders have traded back and still gotten Heyward-Bey, but they spent their 2nd round pick on a guy who wouldn't have had his name called until around 4pm tomorrow. At least the Raiders are entertaining to watch on draft day.... thanks for Crabtree!

2. Lions - Grade: C- - You're either a fan of Stafford or not, so I won't examine that pick too much. With a defense that had one of the worst years in NFL history, they chose to draft a TE with their 2nd first round pick and then made some amends when they took a hard-hitting FS with their 2nd rounder. Delmas may actually help this team some, but the massive holes elsewhere still need to be addressed. The talent on the board at their selections makes one wonder what the thought process was in Detroit.

3. Bills - Grade: C - The Bills took the gamble on Maybin developing actual pass rushing skills instead of simply speed rushing every play. Not a terrible pick, but the same can't be said for ignoring their hole at OT and taking the 2nd/3rd best center on the board and then taking a CB who runs a 4.7 40 and reaching for a guard prospect. The Bills were in good spots to add talent at some need spots and seemed to neither take best player available nor draft for need aside from the Maybin pick.

49ers - Grade: TBD (currently: B) - The 49ers got one of the best value picks in the 1st round with Michael Crabtree and this draft could be looked back on as a critical turning point if Crabtree develops into the WR that many think he will become. The trade with Carolina from the #43 overall spot is something that will likely make/break this year's draft. If the pick ends up being in the high/mid portion of the 1st round and the 49ers turn it into a quality player, then this year's draft becomes an A+ draft. If the pick ends up being in the 30's and wasted on a bust or combined with another 1st round pick and traded for another bust at QB, then it could be the straw that broke this franchise's back. Despite my strong preference that the 2nd and 4th round picks this year should have been used on players to help give this roster immediate depth and future starters, even I know that this trade could end up being a windfall. We'll see next year this time what comes out of it, but I do have to say it was an ambitious move.

What does YOUR big board look like?

youALREADYknow — Fri, 24 Apr 2009 03:02:27 -0000

We've all spent time playing guessing games about where players are going to end up in the top 10 picks and which team is going to trade up for Sanchez, but at the end of the day we're guessing what those teams would do with their picks.

For the purposes of this thread, throw the draft order out of the window and imagine you are on the clock at #1. Taking nothing into consideration but a prospect's talent, projectability, NFL readiness, and productivity.... what does the top 25 of your big board look like? This should be your best players available regardless of defensive scheme or team needs.

I'll kick things off with mine:

1    OLB    Aaron Curry    Wake Forest
2    OT    Jason Smith    Baylor
3    OT    Andre Smith    Alabama
4    WR    Michael Crabtree    Texas Tech
5    OT    Eugene Monroe    Virginia
6    DT    B.J. Raji    Boston College
7    CB    Michael Jenkins    Ohio State
8    DE    Brian Orakpo    Texas
9    DE    Everette Brown    Florida State
10    QB    Mark Sanchez    USC
11    DE    Tyson Jackson    LSU
12    WR    Percy Harvin    Florida
13    RB    Knowshon Moreno    Georgia
14    RB    Chris Wells    Ohio State
15    OT    Michael Oher    Mississippi
16    QB    Matthew Stafford    Georgia
17    WR    Darrius Heyward-Bey    Maryland
18    WR    Jeremy Maclin    Missouri
19    CB    Sean Smith    Utah
20    DT    Peria Jerry    Mississippi
21    DE    Aaron Maybin    Penn State
22    MLB    Rey Maualuga    USC
23    DT    Evander Hood    Missouri
24    TE    Brandon Pettigrew    Oklahoma State
25    C    Alex Mack    California

Aaron Curry... Worth the price?

youALREADYknow — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 20:27:05 -0000

I'm interested in the poll results on this one, so please vote and explain your feelings on this improbable scenario.

We've all heard the talk of teams wanting to trade down this year to save money, but I'll make one case for the Niners trading up in this year's draft. My preference would still be to trade down from #10 to the teens, but it appears far more likely that a team wishing to trade up would rather get a 5-9 pick if they're going after Sanchez/Stafford. This brings me to the purpose of this FanPost... Aaron Curry.

Aaron Curry is simply the best football player in this draft as of today. We've gone through the benefits and drawbacks to taking all of the college DE's who fit the 3-4 OLB physical mold, but if we're going to be honest none of them comes remotely close to the level of Aaron Curry at OLB in the NFL. Aaron Curry is a complete linebacker who can play both inside or outside, has the strength and size to shed linemen, has the speed and agility for coverage, and has the discipline and mindset that Singletary would covet.

The Rams have already gone public stating that they want to trade down from #2, but surely other top 5 teams are thinking the same with the $30-50M contract that a top 5 pick will command. This might be the cheapest year to trade up because there is so little demand and teams will have to take a discount to get out of a top slot. Every team in the top 5 is going to be dangling their pick this year and practically daring a team to open their wallet to get elite talent.

Let's look at some possible trade partners:

Rams #2 overall for Niners #10 and 2010 1st round

Chiefs #3 overall for Niners #10, #42, and 2010 3rd round

Seahawks #4 overall for Niners #10 and #42

Obviously the first scenario doesn't look too appealing, but the Chiefs and Seahawks picks could provide some value. The Chiefs don't have a 2nd round pick and have already had private workouts with players who fall in the late 1st to early 2nd round range... not a coincidence. I strongly doubt Curry falls beyond pick #5 unless the Lions take Stafford AND another team trades up to get a QB.

Here's how I believe the draft is shaping up as of today:

1 DET: QB Matthew Stafford or OT Jason Smith

2 STL: OT Jason Smith or OT Eugene Monroe

3 KC: DE Brian Orakpo

4 SEA: OLB Aaron Curry

So the question becomes... is Aaron Curry more valuable than the options likely to be available at #10 and #42 OR would you rather spread the risk with two players who may be 1st round caliber talent but may not make as much of an impact as Curry would?

Please vote for the option you would prefer. (For the record, I'd prefer to trade down but I believe that Aaron Curry could indeed provide more value than the options at #10 and #42 depending on the first 9 picks in the draft.)

Poll

Choose the option that you would most prefer to see on draft day.

49ers trade #10 and #42 to Seahawks for #4 and select Aaron Curry

31 votes

49ers stay at #10 and take OT Oher or OT Smith

17 votes

49ers stay at #10 and take DE Maybin or DE Brown

19 votes

49ers stay at #10 and hope to trade down

35 votes

102 votes | Poll has closed

Maybin

youALREADYknow — Sat, 18 Aug 2007 21:33:56 -0000

going... going... GONE off Roger Clemens.

He looks good at the plate so far.

It's still amazing that he went from A+ to MLB within a month without having ridiculous production there.

Thoughts on how he'll do if they let him start for the rest of the season?

Power Hitting Prospects

youALREADYknow — Tue, 10 Jul 2007 03:32:05 -0000

We all know the major top power hitting prospects since they are talked about everywhere. But every year there are a few guys who hit for power while playing at a decent level for their age that don't get much attention. A couple of years in a row like that and suddenly they are a "surprise" prospect that nobody saw coming but the statheads.

So let's look at a few from the low minors who are having good power seasons this year and anyone who knows something about these guys please add info. Note: I've left out any Cal League guys because the numbers are obviously skewed there more than even in the recent years.

3B Matt Sweeney/Angels/6'3"210lb/4-4-88/A-MID - .262/.324/.443, 11 HR and 28 XBH in 282 AB

LF Nick Weglarz/Indians/6'3"215lb/12-16-87/A-SAL - .272/.395/.481, 14 HR and 31 XBH in 283 AB

1B Logan Morrison/Marlins/6'2"215lb/8-25-87/A-SAL - .289/.363/.510, 16 HR and 31 XBH in 294 AB

3B Juan Francisco/Reds/6'2"180lb/6-24-87/A-MID - .275/.315/.448, 13 HR and 30 XBH in 335 AB

3B John Whittleman/Rangers/6'2"195lb/2-11-87/A-MID - .288/.405/.529, 14 HR and 38 XBH in 278 AB

LF Ryan Royster/Devil Rays/6'2"210lb/7-25-86/A-SAL - .319/.360/.546, 15 HR and 38 XBH in 304 AB

1B Chris Vinyard/Orioles/6'4"230lb/12-15-85/A-SAL - .282/.333/.446, 10 HR and 31 XBH in 312 AB

3B Daniel Valencia/Twins/6'2"200lb/9-19-84/A-MID - .302/.374/.500, 11 HR and 26 XBH in 242 AB

3B Allen Craig/Cardinals/6'2"190lb/7-18-84/HiA-FSL - .320/.370/.541, 17 HR and 34 XBH in 316 AB

Poll

Which of these do you think is the best prospect?

3B John Whittleman

69 votes

3B Matt Sweeney

22 votes

LF Ryan Royster

6 votes

LF Nick Weglarz

21 votes

1B Chris Vinyard

7 votes

1B Logan Morrison

7 votes

3B Daniel Valencia

15 votes

3B Juan Francisco

5 votes

3B Allen Craig

17 votes

169 votes | Poll has closed

MOD: Devil Rays

youALREADYknow — Thu, 17 May 2007 00:35:57 -0000

Here we go again. This is my 2nd year doing the mock. Last year's draft was scouted by the fine people at RaysBaseball.com and I'm sure the same will happen this year. I'm just the voice and signature at the end of the decisions and welcome any and all input and feedback.

To recap the draft from last season:

Rd 1, Pick 3: Tim Lincecum, RHP, University of Washington (10 in real draft)
Rd 2, Pick 47: Emmanuel Burriss, SS, Kent State University (33 in real draft)
Rd 3, Pick 79: Aaron Bates, 1B, North Carolina State University (83 in real draft)
Rd 4, Pick 109: Matt McBride, C, Lehigh (75 in real draft)
Rd 5, Pick 139: Nick Fuller, RHP, Georgia HS (79 in real draft)

Last year's draft was very college heavy, but there was a lot of decent upside talent available last year in the later rounds.

Lincecum was a personal favorite and most of the people interested preferred Brad Lincoln. Let's just say that was one case where I'm glad I trusted my gut.

Burriss slipped in the mock draft and a few of us liked him more than some of the HS talent available. He's struggling this season so far hitting for average, but he still has good plate discipline and great speed.

Bates was another personal favorite and I had him on my 2nd round list. He's proved so far as a professional that he was probably more of a 2nd round talent.

McBride was my favorite college catcher in the draft and has done little to prove that sentiment wrong thus far. He's not destroying A ball, but he's doing what was expected and clearly worth the 4th round pick.

Fuller was a great 5th round selection at the time, but little did we all know that he would end up being a little pickpocket. If taken pro in real life, there's almost no doubt in my mind he would be out of trouble and doing well in the low minors. He was successful in his brief stint at college.

NOW onto the 2007 draft. Let's just focus on the 1st round since late round picks are too heavily dependent on availability. Plus, we don't want to give other teams any ideas lol.

My general draft strategy is a mix of need and best talent available at the top, a good mix of pitching and hitting, and more focus on upside in the later rounds. With this draft class, I think we can get some good HS talent in rounds 4 and 5.

But onto the first pick:

I know everyone expects the pick to be David Price and it's obvious why. I'm a big Price fan and expect him to be a solid major league starter at worst.

Having said all that, I'm not as sold on his upside as an "ace" as I was for Lincecum and I even prefer Jake McGee to David Price right now.

But beyond all that, there's one reason I've been leaning more and more to not drafting David Price. And that reason is Matt Wieters.

As rare as it is to find a 6'6" lefty with a plus fastball, a plus breaking ball, and a track record of success.... it's just as rare to find a 6'5" catcher with plus plate discipline, contact skills, current power and potential power, switch-hitter, a plus-plus arm behind the plate, reportedly good catching skills, and a track record of success with wood bats.

Just look at how good Wieters was in the Cape this past offseason: .307/.417/.535, 8 HR, 21 RBI, 23 BB, 21 K in 127 AB.

People rarely, if ever, post a 950 OPS in that league. It's the highest OPS in the Cape this decade.

Talent-wise, Price and Wieters are dead even in my opinion.

So onto need... where will Price fit into the future of the Rays and where will Wieters fit into the future?

Price would be a starter. Of the current starters, only Kazmir and Shields are locked in long-term.

That leaves 3 spots in the rotation for:

RHP Jeff Niemann
RHP Andy Sonnanstine
RHP Jason Hammel
RHP Mitch Talbot
RHP Edwin Jackson
RHP Wade Davis
LHP Jake McGee
RHP Chris Mason
RHP Jeremy Hellickson
RHP Josh Butler
etc etc etc etc

Breaking it down, we see that only Kazmir and McGee exist as legit left-handed options for the rotation. The remaining 3 spots will be filled by the others in that group.

The question becomes, do you think David Price is a big upgrade over the names listed above and/or do you have faith in Jake McGee becoming a solid major league starter?

I'm not of the opinion that Price is a surefire upgrade over the names above, especially when speaking about Sonnanstine, Niemann, and Davis. I'm also a huge believer in McGee and prefer him to Davis as of today.

So, let's move our attention to Wieters. Here is the current Rays catching depth chart:

MLB: Dioner Navarro
Minors: Shawn Riggans, John Jaso, Sergio Pedroza, Nevin Ashley

Jaso and Pedroza simply aren't everyday major league catchers and don't really pass as defensive catchers. They both have good bats, but a bat alone won't get you to the majors as a catcher.

Riggans and Ashley are relatively similar despite being at different stages of their careers. Both guys can hit for average, have enough pop to drive a few out, have solid defensive reputations, have decent speed, and have below-average plate discipline. They are both IMO perfect backup catchers in the majors and I think both will fill that role for the Rays at some point in the future.

So the question then becomes, how much do you believe in Dioner Navarro?

I'm not at all a Navarro fan. He's only showed the talent to hit against lefties in the majors and that's not enough to cut it at the highest level. He doesn't possess any upside or projection and while he'll likely get better through experience and repetition, he's very unlikely to be an above-average catcher any time in the near future. Solid guy who can be around league average with a pretty good arm.

To me, Wieters is a huge upgrade over all of the catchers in the Rays system. He's probably just as good as Navarro right now, while being 2 years younger.

So it's a tough call.

While everyone thinks the Rays need to draft a pitcher, I just don't see that as a position of need within the organization anymore. The Rays have better pitching in the minor leagues than any other organization. They have enough to fill a rotation AND a bullpen just off their starting prospects alone.

Opinions, comments, and of course I'll get a TON of criticism.

Poll

1st rd pick?

LHP David Price, Vanderbilt

35 votes

C Matt Wieters, Georgia Tech

13 votes

RHP Rick Porcello, High School (NJ)

4 votes

3B Josh Vitters, High School (CA)

1 votes

53 votes | Poll has closed

Real/Mock Draft in Review

youALREADYknow — Wed, 02 May 2007 03:29:46 -0000

I know it's not June yet, but is there going to be a review of the Real/Mock MLB Draft we did last year as a community?

I'm not sure if it's something that John does as a feature since I've only been active on this site since late in 2005 but if not, I think it would be interesting to go back over the results as a community and evaluate both the real drafts of the teams and the mock drafts.

Good idea, bad idea, who cares? Give some feedback.

Here's a link to last year's 1st round: http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2006/6/4/15539/85453

2007 AL Rookie of the Year

youALREADYknow — Fri, 06 Apr 2007 01:09:44 -0000

Alex Gordon... nah.

Elijah Dukes... cranks another HR against the Yankees.

2 HR in 2 games.

At this pace, he'll overtake Gomes for the DH role by May.

Seriously, why don't I see Dukes as an option on any ROY polls or articles?

King Felix

youALREADYknow — Tue, 03 Apr 2007 00:30:07 -0000

Is anyone watching the Mariners/A's game?

Felix Hernandez is looking like the most dominant pitcher in baseball right now... just sick.

11 K's through 7 shutout innings.

Effortlessly going through the A's lineup and hitting all of his spots, still hitting 97 in the 7th.

And the ump isn't doing him any favors.

Make that 12 K's now... crazy.