We've been doing playoff threads on the sidebar, but tonight's a special night as before the game the annual draft lottery will be held.

Here's everything you need to know about the odds. Somehow this process has been stretched into an entire half-hour of television by ESPN, ruiner of everything. It'll likely feature analysis by five people who've watched a combined 2 Bobcats games this season.

The Bobcats do have the best chance (25%) at winning. This is one of the few rooting (against) interests for Bulls fans, as the better the 'cats get, the worse their future draft pick owed to the Bulls will seem. Beyond that, I'm guessing we should just hope Anthony Davis stays in the Western Conference?

If you want some sentimental reasons to pick a crappy team to like for a night, SBNation's bloggers of lottery teams made their case at the mothership. All news from the night will be dutifully populated at the lottery storystream.

Then...Heat/Celtics, I guess. I'm not even sure I can claim I'm completely against the Heat in this one, as if the Celtics somehow won their insufferable fans would just become worse. At least the Heat have no real fan presence to annoy me.

I guess the best way to get through tonight is to remember the good times, the 1.7% chance mentioned BaB's tagline.

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Alex spent a good deal of time going over the questions with using Amnesty on Carlos Boozer. It's great information, but all indications are that the Bulls will do no such thing. And, so, with them bumping up against the tax, there's only a few ways to spend money to acquire players. One of which is minimum salaries, so expect this caliber of name going forward...

Weirdly-worded blurb from Charley Walters of the Pioneer Press (via Blazers Edge) on a possible Bulls FA target:

Best bet for former Gophers center Joel Przybilla, 32, who finished the season with the Portland Trail Blazers, is that he signs a free-agent deal with the Chicago Bulls this summer. Przybilla considered the Bulls before re-signing with Portland this year.

'Best bet' for us? For him? The whole column reads like the Minneapolis version of Fred Mitchell, and I don't doubt that he some inside line to Przybilla...so this is something.

The Bulls indeed showed interest in Przybilla, part of their pursuit of signing a useable 5th big which never really happened (and totally didn't matter unless you count the playoffs!). Przybilla came back from major knee surgery to put up another microscopic PER with Portland, but of course is more known as a defensive player. He could be seen as an Omer Asik replacement should Omer be lost to free agency.

Even less appetizing is that Brian Scalabrine wants to go to Summer League, 'hopefully for the Bulls'. The Bulls (featuring Jimmy Butler) will be in Vegas this summer. I remember from this radio interview with KC Johnson that Scal's return seemed possible, if only because he would be making the minimum.

Considering this is late, is nobody that excited?

London's Telegraph has a report on the Bulls discussing Deng's decision to put off surgery and play in the Olympics for Team Great Britain this summer:

Deng and his representatives met with Chicago Bulls management earlier this week and, perhaps sensing that the mood of the Chicago public was strongly against 'getting heavy' with Deng, the Bulls agreed that they would back down on demanding that he undergoes immediate surgery on a left wrist injury he has been carrying since Jan 21.
...
The apparent softening of the Bulls stance this week means that Deng is free to join the Great Britain party in camp in Houston next month and play in London after which a decision will be made as to whether he undergoes surgery straight away or whether he rests the wrist completely for up to three months.

There are other fun tidbits in there, like calling Derrick Rose the Bulls' "star man", how Team GB doesn't anticipate Deng will need the surgery after all (I doubt it, as I don't see how playing on it helps the healing), and the fat insurance premium that will need to be paid for Deng to join the national team.

The author, Brendan Gallagher, notes that the Bulls have little moral standing in the matter considering how many minutes Deng played for the Bulls this season on that injured wrist. And indeed, Deng could've gotten surgery immediately after the injury and missed the rest of the Bulls season too. So the Bulls 'owe' him this, in a way. But also, there's no legal recourse for the Bulls to stop Deng from playing: doing so is forbidden by the CBA.

Hopefully each side is more 'comfortable' with the situation, but there was never really a question Deng was going to play this summer.

From the NBA:

From July 13- 22, 23 NBA teams, including 11 that participated in the NBA Playoffs, as well as a team of NBA D-League Select players will compete at the Thomas & Mack Center and the COX Pavilion on the campus of the University of Nevada Las Vegas.

...

The games will be available on NBA TV and also on digital platforms. A complete schedule of games and broadcast information will be released at a later date.

KC Johnson just tweeted that 'obviously' Jimmy Butler will play. I don't think it was THAT obvious, but that's still good to know.

And to make this a Jimmy Butler post, Bulls101 recently did a two-part post on his rookie and upcoming season.

Some interesting league-wide stuff that have built up on the sidebar and my reader over the past week or so that I want to share. I can't say I've actually digested them all yet...but as Bulls fans we certainly have more time, eh? ::sobs::

• Interesting work being done with player tracking by some teams (not the Bulls) in the NBA. One tidbit is that nobody ran per game as much as Luol Deng did this season.
• Crazy graphs showing efficiency by player+play-type for all teams. Here's the Bulls chart.
• This visual aid at Deadspin is more for fun: best shooters in the NBA by area on the floor.
• Hoopidea, like any ideas, are some good and some bad. I think it's a noble goal to try and stop 'hack-a'-tactics though. I don't like their first suggestion very much though. I'm sure my own initial thought can be poked apart, and you don't want to give referees more choices, but why isn't it always an 'intentional foul' with the extra penalties associated with it?
• Kevin Pelton at Basketball Prospectus dug in on associating ACL injuries with fatigue, something that the league tripped over themselves they ran so fast to deny, and even they now realize there's some debate on the issue. This finds some correlation, but nothing conclusive either way. I still maintain that it is both the fatigue and the special case of Rose coming back from other injuries that made Thibodeau's choice in the playoffs a dangerous one.
• Tom Ziller at the mothership is reviewing the past 5 drafts, starting with the epic 2007 one that changed the league. The Bulls come off extremely well here, taking Joakim Noah 9th.

As Alex noted in his last post about CJ Watson and the PG market, the Bulls do not have a lot of available ways to sign free agents. Being over the salary cap in nearly every conceivable scenario, cap exceptions are the only way to take on more money.

Here are the two main ones the Bulls have at their disposal:

Mid-Level Exception (MLE) - can be used for a $5m starting salary, for up to a 4-year deal. The Bulls used this when they signed Richard Hamilton last offseason, but it can be used every offseason. It can also be split amongst several players.

Bi-Annual Exception (BAE) - for up to a 2-year deal, starting at $1.9m. As indicated in its name, this exception can't be used two years in a row. The Bulls did not use it last offseason, so they can do so in this one.

There are other 'exceptions' that make the salary cap the soft gooey forgiving entity it is: They can sign their first-round picks to the rookie scale. They can sign players to the minimum salary. Even the rights to re-sign Omer Asik as a restricted free agent is technically an 'exception'.

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The enemy of my enemy is my friend, so keep on bein' a jerk, Danny Granger.

Wanted to provide a forum for rampant speculation and trade-machinin' in the wake of some recent events around the league.

On Monday afternoon, the Orlando Magic shook up their entire situation with the firing of coach Stan Van Gundy and the mutual parting with GM Otis Smith. If they were intent on firing SVG, and the well was likely too poisoned not to, it made sense to take Smith out with him. It also means that maybe their new GM could make a better deal of Dwight Howard, or one building around him, than Smith would've. Orlando Pinstriped Post has two recent reports indicating that Howard still wants out. The Magic had previously indicated that if Howard didn't sign an extension beyond the 2012-13 season, he would be moved.

Unfortunately, the Bulls don't seem to be on Howard's list of places he'd want to be traded to (and, I assume, sign that extension). That doesn't seem to have changed since last year. Though that was a time when I figured the Bulls should still risk the move and hope Howard liked being on a 'super-team' with Rose, winning more and stuff, and the Bulls personable dynamic front office would...ok, maybe it was a far-fetched plan.

But now, it's a plan that is probably even be less likely. With Rose out for much of the season, and not fully 'back' when even when he returns, it may not be as much of a guaranteed championship-caliber situation that would mask his reluctance to stay with the Bulls. And one of the Bulls main trade pieces, Luol Deng, has a wrist surgery looming that probably puts off any deal as big as a Dwight Howard one. Not that Deng can't be traded (a team can waive the physical), but there's likely too much uncertainty there for a team to take him on.

And meanwhile in Los Angeles, the Lakers were just eliminated from the playoffs Monday night, which will undoubtedly get rumors going on anyone not named Kobe Bryant. I haven't seen any reports that Pau Gasol trades will be explored, but found this interesting fan perspective from Silver Screen and Roll:

Hoo boy. For the second straight year Pau Gasol's performance was... lamentable. With two years left on his deal at $19 million apiece, he won't be easy to move - certainly not with his perceived value in freefall. Pau looks like a guy who, for whatever reason, is tired of being a Laker and possibly tired of playing professional basketball. You'll hear plenty of trade rumors involving him in the months ahead. Behind Pau on the depth chart you've got unrestricted free agent Jordan Hill and the disappointing Josh McRoberts.

If you can find a way to figure the Lakers would be interested in any kind of Boozer-Gasol swap, you have more of an imagination than I. While 'lamentable' is the type of performance Boozer can provide just as well, Gasol is still a far better all-around player, and on a shorter contract. He also makes $4m more in 2012-13 salary than Boozer, and really both the Lakers and Bulls are looking to save money in that season. I'm figuring that any Gasol deal would be instead for mid-level rotation players and depth, of which the Lakers have very little.

Although, you could figure that maybe if the Lakers received Dwight Howard in a 3-way deal, that'd be the only way they'd be alright with also taking Carlos Boozer...well, figure it out, everyone.

Figuring the Lakers will roll over and die, and just wishing the Celtics did the same.

Ugh, thinking about the Rose injury timetable is truly sickeningly depressing. I wanted to see the Bulls take some kind of optimistic defiance, trying to keep their very good Rose-centered team, maybe even (gasp) improve. Then, when Rose got back before the 2013 playoffs, hope that for once the Bulls would be an inverse of their usual selves: a tepid regular season performance but potentially playoff-dominant.

But I had questioned the Bulls pushing Rose too much and too soon all of this past season, culminating in the knee injury in an already-won game. So it seems hypocritical to want them to do something similar for 2012-13 as he rehabs from a very serious surgery. Which means that logically the Bulls aren't title contenders in that season. Which blows.

But I'm trying not to get as down as Sam Smith, who's advocating the Bulls trade what they can for flexibility (of course!), lottery picks, and the next great free agent class.

Is it about competing until Rose returns, which will happen perhaps late next season or the season after? Or is it about trying to have the pieces in place or the flexibility to go for a championship when he returns and thereafter?

The Bulls the way the East is breaking down did seem to have a chance this season for a title. But they also seem to have the same issue of the lack of another star player....So then the question becomes, how do you get another star?

...say the Bulls withdraw next season: They keep Rose out, maybe deal Deng or Noah for a pick and miss the playoffs. So then they get another lottery pick in 2013. They bring those young players back with Rose in 2013-14, and then in the summer of 2014...

He then lists a lot of free agents, leading off with Miami's big three though it gets less appetizing after that and after a dozen names all the way down to Marcin Gortat.

It's a concept more distressing than idiotic. The Bulls already did a tear-down during the years of Derrick Rose's rookie contract, and I'm not too excited to see it again. Especially since the summer of 2010 merely garnered consolation prizes and the Org. has not been much for making (and executing) big plans.

But I see the point. I think the word 'tank' is used too reflexively when suggesting some kind of change. I think it's hard for teams to tank, especially with this current group and this coach. But Organizations certainly can. So if the Bulls did deal Noah (and I guess Deng if he proves his health again), along with a combination of simply letting other role players go and injuries, they could very likely miss the playoffs next season. I really don't think the Bulls would do this to their fanbase (specifically: season ticket holders), or their coach: if Thibs sees this going the other way, not only would his style start to grate on a team not competing for a championship, but he may simply leave for a better situation and paycheck.

Of course, something similar can happen by accident. The '07-'08 Bulls were coming off of their best season in 10 years, but completely fell apart. Their coach was fired, and they wound up with a lottery chance of 1.7%...and Derrick Rose.

So it's possible, whether by design or not. But it's the repetitive Flexibility-> ? ->Championship cycle (of profits) I'd rather get out of, and it's a lot less romantic than the lauded concept of 'the Thunder model' make it sound.

I'm expecting complaints about officiating!

I'm starting to think nobody will do these of their own volition, so here's a place for your lonely Friday.

Here's an idea from BaB contributor Sports2 in the comments:

Rip is basically expiring. The only taker I can think of for him is a team that sucks and will be under the cap. Send him to New Jersey or Charlotte for a sack of doorknobs. This gives us enough money to re-sign Ronnie Brewer, who played much better and much more consistently.

And don't forget: younger and likely healthier.

I think this makes sense. Rip Hamilton was a win-now acquisition and the Bulls didn't win. He was an upgrade over Keith Bogans. He sometimes looked very good, especially during the rare time he played with Derrick Rose, including 19 points in 26 minutes in game one of the playoffs.

But his season was an overall disappointment, least of which was missing 38 games due to groin and shoulder issues. He showed good playmaking ability but his TS% sunk to a career-low 50% while still aggressively pulling the trigger. The real obvious signs of decline looked to be on the defensive end. He may have been a bit of a turd in the locker room and not forthright about his injuries. All told, by the end of the season Rip had shown to be better than Keith Bogans but stayed in the Bogans role. Both Kyle Korver and Brewer took the 'closing' SG spot at times showing that Rip hadn't 'won' the job according to Thibs.

Without Rose and Deng to start the year, going with another defensively-emphasized player like Brewer over Rip (plus Jimmy Butler taking some SF minutes) may be trouble. But if Rip's only really effective playing off of Derrick Rose, he won't be of much use this season, and there's little reason to believe he'll be healthier (or better) as he turns 35 in the middle of next season. The Bulls will need bodies to take up minutes and Brewer's proven to be better at that.

So if it's possible that a team under the cap (or with a big-enough trade exception...Utah?) would take Hamilton and his $5m (plus $1m buyout next season) off of the Bulls hands for effectively nothing, would you rather $4.37m instead go to Brewer?

Keep in mind, this would be the kind of move lauded as 'shrewd' while it's really the Bulls dodging the luxury tax. Kind of like signing Rip in the first place because he was willing to take a 2-year deal. But these are the kind of choices that they force themselves in.

Go you punk-ass Pacers go!

Our latest in a series about the Bulls upcoming offseason is about the luxury tax. Mortal enemy of the Chicago Bulls, as well as an enemy of BaB readers sick of me harping on it for the past...oh man, I've been doing this too long.

But it's somewhat timely as Bulls GM Gar Forman was asked about it Wednesday morning on The Score, specifically referencing Bulls chairman Jerry Reinsdorf's stance that it'd be paid for a winner and how that mindset may have changed in light of Derrick Rose's lengthy absence next season.

What Jerry has said is "if we're in a position to compete, that we would consider going into the tax". Obviously we've been in a position to compete the last couple of years. Then when I talk about our long-term window, we feel we're going to be in a position to compete. I'm really confident that we will go into the tax if it makes basketball sense, as far as our long-term vision with this team. If it does, I think we'll go into the tax. I don't think we'll go into the tax for a short-term plug-in. But we're going to protect our assets, we're going to continue to build this thing for the next 5-7, 10 years built around Derrick and some of our young pieces.

Gar's correct that his boss has been lukewarm on the issue, and he follows suit here. But why (still) so scared?

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Some side-news from the knee surgery press conference Tuesday, where Bulls GM Gar Forman also addressed the media:

General manager Gar Forman said the team will pick up coach Tom Thibodeau's option for next season and will starting working on an extension this summer.

"Obviously, we value Tom greatly," Forman said. "We value what he brings to the organization and what he brings to the team and think he's one of the finest coaches in the league and we're hopeful he'll be our coach long-term.

One thing I'm curious of: does this option year precludes any kind of raise Thibs would receive through an extension? If they work out a contract extension, would that start this coming season and the option year is 'ripped up'? Or would it start only after next season?

I think the difference matters because this upcoming third year of the original contract likely is still going to be underpaying the nearly two-time coach of the year. So I could still see some hard-lined negotiation (as it always is with the Bulls) to come when it gets to the part of actually factoring in a raise (and when) for Thibs. There has already been plays through the media by Thibs's camp.

In related news, Dallas extended their coach Rick Carlisle with a 4-year contract. I had originally thought (and sorry for spreading misinformation in the comments) that Carlisle was in a similar situation to Thibs, but indeed Carlisle would've been completely without a contract on 7/1, whereas the Bulls had this option year for Thibodeau.

The Bulls held a press conference at Rush University Medical Center on Tuesday afternoon, to give an update on Derrick Rose's ACL surgery. Team physician Brian Cole gave the latest prognosis:

Cole estimated that Rose would need eight to 12 months for a full recovery, and saw no reason why his performance should be diminished.

There's more, of course, but this is mostly standard, yet vague, stuff...pretty much how a 4-month deviation in recovery time can be explained. And thus how KC Johnson can call that an 'optimistic assessment', yet PBT sees this as somehow different and worse than an earlier report.

It's neither, it's nothing. Which is fine. There isn't going to be much in terms of reliable news with this, especially considering how the Bulls treated their paying public with the various and much less serious injuries to Rose all season. So I wouldn't expect anything concrete, and certainly won't care what Reggie Rose thinks about it.

A couple bits that were actually interesting though:

• Rose's MCL was not torn. So that's better news than...well, better than if it had been torn.
• Cole on the cause: "This could be anything from a completely random event to maybe conditioning. We'll never know with certainty." OH, REALLY?!?

Omer Asik was selected in the 2nd round of the 2008 draft (Pritchslapped!) and then signed in the summer of 2010 with their cap room to a 2-year deal.

Those 2 years are over, the Bulls are currently over the cap for the foreseeable future, and Asik is a Restricted Free Agent. Seems soon, doesn't it? The CBA agrees, and thus why there's different rules for him than there are for 1st rounders coming off of their usual 3-4 year contracts.

The Bulls can:

1. Sign Asik to the $2.4 qualifying offer million if Asik agrees to it; if not,
   
2. The Bulls have the privilege to match any offer sheet from any team to which Asik would agree under the Early Bird Exception. (note: they do not have to use their Mid-Level Exception (MLE) to match offers, though that figure is used to determine the salary, as you'll see below)
   
3. The Bulls can also waive their Early Bird rights to sign Asik to the two-year veteran minimum ($854k in 2011-12), but that point is moot, as Asik will field better offers.

Other teams over the cap can use their cap exceptions (the biggest being the MLE) to make an offer to Asik. Teams under the cap (of which there are many this offseason) can offer more based on their cap room. The Bulls have 'early' Bird rights on Omer, as he's only been on the team for 2 seasons. So, unlike the 'full' Bird rights which allow a team like them (i.e., over the cap) to retain their own players at any amount, the Bulls have restrictions as to what amount of a contract they can pay Asik. Luckily, those limitations also apply to what other teams can offer him.

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The Bulls have a lot of salary-cap related questions when it comes to re-tooling while also letting their roster recuperate. It's going to be very interesting to see how they treat next season, as well as their future salary obligations.

So be mindful, yet wary, of what those close to the team suggest could be happening. They no-doubt have ideas of what to expect based on what they're hearing form the team, but some of it could be presented in a less-than-accurate light.

As an example of the latter, the Sun-Times is way off base with this:

The Bulls hold options on Kyle Korver, Ronnie Brewer and C.J. Watson, but they aren't all likely to return because the Bulls need to clear some cap space to re-sign Gibson, who will be eligible for free agency after next season...the Bulls will be bumping their head on the salary-cap ceiling. No matter how much they might want to keep Watson and Korver, something will have to give.

As readers here know: it's the tax, not the cap, and you can plow your head right through that 'ceiling', as long as you're willing to pay.

I'm not saying that's the best option, but it shouldn't be ignored as one. At the least: frame it as something the Org. is unwilling to do instead of unable to do.

KC Johnson is more accurate, but it's a similarly tepid message:

[the luxury tax] is projected to rise only nominally while becoming more punitive in the future...the Bulls basically are hamstrung for making significant upgrades to the roster for next season. Call it a treading water season until Rose and Deng get fully healthy, and the team makes a playoff push.

This is just 'informed speculation', but it is informed. We also have history as our guide to suggest that we shouldn't expect any salary additions...and if anything should expect subtractions. But always remember it's a choice of theirs, not an obligation.

Another tough series to root for. It's just natural to not cheer for the Heat though.

I know the Sixers were a bit annoying in their series with the Bulls, but I'm still rooting for them tonight.

It's been said a lot lately: the Bulls are in a really tough place this offseason. This past year was probably a bit more 'win-now' than we wanted to believe, especially after it all came crashing to a thud.

The NBA offseason will provide plenty of Bulls news and rumors, up to and including the draft and free agency. In preparation, BlogABull will try to do its best to get everyone informed as to what circumstances and parameters affect the Bulls plans.

First, there are 2 major sites where (if you're ambitious) you can get a head start on the class:

• ShamSports - the most accurate and readable salary data resource.
• Larry Coon's salary cap FAQ - just updated after the 2011 CBA negotiations.

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There's probably more to be said about the exact way the Bulls season ended, but it seems to matter less than the simple fact that it's over. There are a ton of really tough and complicated questions facing this team: how they can re-load while also recuperate.

But for now, there are the parting words of a couple of Bulls, who spoke with the media after going through their day of exit interviews. Bulls.com has the full quotes from Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer. Nothing was earth-shattering, but there does seem to be a common theme:

Noah:

I think the unfortunate part of this year is we didn't measure up against the teams we wanted to measure up against. I personally believe this group can compete against anybody, the Heat, anybody.

Boozer:

Wouldn't you guys love to see us at full strength and completely healthy when the playoffs start. We haven't had that yet.

As tough as it is for us, it has to be insanely rougher for the Bulls not to get their rematch with Miami. Because I'm guessing they were more confident of their chances than we (or at least, I) were.

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The Bulls season is over, and unfortunately there will be far more time to talk about it than we anticipated. Alex has a great-if-depressing breakdown of the many things that went wrong (especially down the stretch) in Game Six.

Mentioned among those was Boozer's awful night: going 1-9 in the first half, starting the second half 0-2 with two turnovers and foul, and then sitting the final 16 minutes of an elimination game. ESPNChicago has Boozer's response when asked about it after the game:

I just missed them. Some nights are like that. Some nights you're on fire, some nights you're not. Tonight I wasn't.

Previously in the series, Boozer had been inefficient but was at least trying to carry more of the offensive load. For his final game, one could see it was beyond a disaster when Booz was left open on the perimeter and he no longer wanted to shoot. The 1-11 performance brought his 2012 playoffs field goal percentage to 42%, but it was much worse than that: In the 6 games, Boozer had 23 turnovers. Only 7 free-throw attempts. His playoff PER was 10.2, a number that doesn't even encapsulate the usual poor decision-making and ability on the defensive end.

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Bulls surging since it looked really bleak to begin 3rd quarter.

Bulls down 8 heading into second half. Considering they only scored 40 points, that's a lot.

Next thread when appropriate.

James Harden was announced as the 2011-12 6th man of the year on Thursday. Like the DPoY voting, there's some Bulls popping up in the vote totals. Kyle Korver and CJ Watson received some recognition, the latter seems like a misinterpretation as he's provided his value when Rose was out, i.e. in the starting five.

Most noticeable is that there were 4 out of 119 first-place votes that didn't go to Harden. 3 went to the Lou Williams of the currently-hated Sixers, and 1 went to Taj Gibson. For first place!

I threw out the game of guessing which media member gave Luol Deng the defensive player of the year vote, but this seems even more glaring. And I think it's pretty obvious it's Chuck Swirsky. He's been known for a hometown vote before.

If you're not aware, Taj is expected to play tonight after injuring his ankle in Game Five.

Bulls had an earlier-than-usual shootaround, and here's the latest on the ankle-sprain twins from that media scrum:

Thibodeau said Taj will do shootaround and is expected to play. Noah gametime decision but still limping and won't do full shootaround.

— K.C Johnson (@KCJHoop) May 10, 2012

And the Sun-Times with some words directly from Taj:

I’ve been getting treatment the last two days so I should be OK. I’m going to play. It’s about how much pain I can take. I’m going to go out there and lay it on the line.

That's admirable from the always-admirable Taj Gibson, but it should be noted that when he did return to game five, it was hurting the team. He (and Noah) rely on their athleticism so their hobbled play just isn't very good.

Then again, if Taj can give them some minutes it'll certainly help. If Noah's out the Bulls only have Boozer and Asik to man the frontcourt for most of the game, though Deng can play some PF in lineups where the Sixers play Thaddeus Young. Eh, who are we kidding...if Taj is 'cleared', Thibs will play him as much as possible.

(Remember when the Bulls were going to sign a 5th big man who wasn't a mascot?)