Beltre's finally worth the money

yuniform — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 21:07:58 -0000

Back when everyone thought Adrian Beltre was hobbled for the year, Dave at USSM wrote a great post reaffirming that Beltre was totally worth his $64 million contract. The key points were this chart (based on FanGraphs and, oh, how about Cot's):

2005: $8.6 million in value, $11.4 million in salary
2006: $17.2 million in value, $12.9 million in salary
2007: $12.4 million in value, $12.9 million in salary
2008: $18.5 million in value, $13.4 million in salary
2009: $5.7 million in value, $13.4 million in salary

Total: $62.4 million in value, $64 million in salary

and this line:

He was going to easily justify his paycheck again this year until this trip to the disabled list.

Now we can take out all the qualifiers on those justifiers. Thanks to his awesome week, Beltre's value this year transposed from $5.7 million to $7.5 million, which switches the digits in his total value during his contract from $62.4 million to $64.2. So the rest of Adrian Beltre's production this year is free to Mariners fans. Unless you actually buy a ticket.

Caveat #1: Beltre will actually make $64.1 million, according to Cot's. The only incentive he's getting is $50,000 for each of his Gold Gloves. (Too bad he wasn't the MVP of the LCS.)

Caveat #2: Beltre may have eclipsed the $64 million mark in value a while ago if you use Statcorner's wOBA or wOBA* rather than Fangraphs wOBA. Side-by-side comparison:

Year: Fangraphs wOBA/StatCorner wOBA/wOBA*

2005: .308 / .329 / .334

2006: .338 / .355/ .360

2007: .346 / .349 / .354

2008: .336 / .339 / .344

2009: .304 / .316 / .321

It's not quite so clear, though. Dave wrote specifically about Beltre when saying that Fangraph park-adjusts their wRAA to get their batting value. When both stat sites correct for Safeco's drag, StatCorner's bRAA for Beltre ends up being lower than Fangraphs batting value.

Year: Fangraphs Batting Value/StatCorner bRAA

2005: -6.9 / -3.8

2006: 7.0 / 6.2

2007: 10.9 / 7.1

2008: 6.6 / 2.6

2009: -5.9 / -6.4

Total: 11.7 / 5.7

I'm not quite sure where I'm messing up the maths. Are these not comparable stats? Is is a difference in park factors?

Still, group of Mariners fans who already know Beltre's underrated, valuable, and awesome, you remain correct.

Lucas French grew up a Mariners fan

yuniform — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 18:26:11 -0000

Lucas French grew up a Mariners fan

...according to Jim Street.
I know these stories are written to endear fans to the new guys (Ian Snell has family in Portland!), but it's working on me.

Key quotes: "When the Tigers told me I'd been traded to Seattle, my first thought was, 'Awesome!'" he said.
...
"When I was in the fifth grade," the Colorado native said, "I made a time line about where you want to be in the future and it was on my time line that I wanted to play for the Mariners. So this is pretty cool. The Mariners were my favorite team."
...
French received an autographed jersey from Griffey last month when the Mariners played the Tigers in Detroit, and on Saturday received a typical Griffey "welcome" to the Mariners.

"Mike Sweeney and I were talking when he walked up and stood there near us," Griffey said. "We knew he wanted to introduce himself, so when we were done talking, both of us turned and started to walk away.

"Luke had his hand out and he just stared. Then I turned around and said, 'I'm just messin' with you."

SB Nation User Blog: yuniform

Beltre's finally worth the money

Lucas French grew up a Mariners fan

Lucas French grew up a Mariners fan