Trent Robinson is an interesting pick. He is a relatively small safety with good cover ability. I would say that, due to his cover ability, he is likely to plug in immediately as "starting" dime back. Additionally, he may be able to compete with Culliver for the nickle back position, though height (Robinson's lack thereof) may be an issue there?

I would also hazard a guess that Robinson might begin the season as the primary backup to both Goldson and Whitner. (Am I underestimating Spillman there? Thus far he has played only in goal line defense. My impression is that Splillman does not have very good cover ability and might be a liability as starting safety.) So that might imply a safety depth chart of: Whitner, Goldson, Robinson, Spillman, which still seems a little thin. (Who am I forgetting here?)

I would be interested to hear anyone's opinion regarding the secondary: corner as well, where presumably T Brown (rcb), Rogers and Culliver return as starting and nickle corners. Who do you see as 4, 5 and 6 at corner? Any chance Robinson gets the mix there as well, e.g., as backup to T Brown?

Aubrey Huff had a fantastic year in 2010. His productivity and leadership were essential to the Giants getting into the post-season and winning the World Series. Last year he struggled. His numbers dropped: 86 rbi in 2010, 59 in 2011; 26 HR in 2010 down to 12 in 2011, etc, etc. There is a myth that he plays well ever other year; that myth is not true. He had good years in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2008 and 2010. There is no every-other-year pattern and no particular reason to think that he will have a good year in 2012.

Why we need to give up on Huff: Often the argument is whether Belt (or Pill) is "better" than Huff. This is not exactly the right question to ask. Belt is unknown, unproven. The same with Pill. Huff is the known quantity. Since 2010 he has been the least productive first baseman on a contending team, and one of the least productive first basemen in baseball.

First base is a key offensive position. It is a truism that major league teams need to get a lot of pop, a lot of power and rbi production, from first base. This is especially true for the Giants who do not have bona fide power hitters in either left or right field, the other positions where power often resides. Nate and Melky are awesome and both are having outstanding years in the field and at the plate, however, neither is a prototypical power hitter. (Though Nate has been coming close lately.) The Giants get away with a lot because we get such exceptional production (average and power) from 3rd base and catcher. Nevertheless, we cannot continue to hide a sub-par hitter at first base.

The bottom line is we need to find out what Belt and Pill have to offer, and whether they can solve our first-base problem. Without Huff in the line-up there are 3 possibilities:

1) Belt at 1st (the left-handed option),

2) Pill at first (right handed option),

3) Posey at 1st (Hector behind the plate) (the mixed, rest Posey but keep his bat in the line-up option).

With these 3 options, and with Melky and Nate both raking, there is no room for an aging veteran. Pill, Belt and Hector Sanchez need their at bats. There is no line-up that includes Huff that is in the best interest of the team, that does not hinder our competitive chances and the development and evaluation of our young players.

What to do with Huff is a conundrum. Is it better to cut him or to have him ride the bench? There is some concern either way. His Wally Pipp comment last year seems ill-advised, competitive and unconstructive. However he meant it, its result is to place extra pressure on Belt (oh, you are the Next Lou Gehrig, right?).

I know these prediction posts are generally not worth much, and I am generally a pretty conservative poster, but here goes. I think Patrick has been steaming ever since the touchdown pass to Jimmy Graham last Sunday. He put the responsibility for that on himself and he was feeling pretty upset about it (to put in mildly) until Alex hit Vernon with the last TD.

As prepared and motivated as Willis always is, I think he will take it to another level against the Giants on Sunday. I would look for the following:
1) monster play against the run, freeing Goldson and Whitner to concentrate fully on pass coverage (ok, he does that every week),
2) man covering the Giants tight end, who is good but not especially fast, without help and shutting him down (allowing our safeties to help the corners with Nicks, Cruz and Manningham),
3) several big impact plays including a sack, forced fumbles and a fumble recovery.
The third item, of course, contains the monster plays that can transform a game. (Like the hit by Whitner last Sunday.)

In my imagination, Patrick's experience, how he felt when Graham scored on his coverage, will enable him to transcend to a even higher plane of competitive fire and intensity. (Sort of like when Gandalf comes back from near death as Gandalf the White in LOTR.) A great warrior transformed and reforged to become even greater.

This season has seen tremendous variation in the percentage of base vs nickel defense the 49ers use. For example; against the Skins, the 49ers were in base defense for about 32 our of 69 snaps, while against the Lions in week 6, the niners were in base only about 15 out of 83 snaps (and thus played nickel or dime 68 times!).  The generous use of base vs the Skins might seem surprising since Washington passed on all but 15 of the offensive snaps. Presumably, however, this choice was part of a game plan to force the opposition to pass, with the sense that Beck would struggle even against the 49ers base defense.  This weekend the expectation is quite the opposite I believe.

Because Manning is quite good, and the NY running game has been ineffective, I would expect the niners to employ a great deal of Nickel, even on 1st down. To state the obvious, this gets Culliver on the field to enhance the secondary and  Aldon Smith at ROLB to enhance the (4-man) pass rush.  Although there may be some blitzing, I think a key to stopping Manning and the Giants is the ability to create pressure with a 4-man rush so that we can maintain a full 7 in coverage most of the time. I would be surprised if Sopoaga plays much more than 15 snaps unless he is subbing at left tackle in the nickel.

The 49ers have an unusual nickel in the sense that both ILBs, Willis and Bowman, stay in. In fact, they play every defensive snap including all nickel and dime. On dime, I think, one OLB comes out and Reggie Smith comes in as a 6th defensive back. The tremendous speed and ability of NaVorro Bowman, and of course Willis, thus lets the 49ers play an unusual scheme. 

I do not think that any other team in the NFL (correct me if this is wrong) has ILBs who play every snap or, equivalently, who play in nickel and dime defenses routinely.  The excellence of their man coverage underneath is noteable. I also believe that there is no team with more speed at ILB.

The dime has only a 3 man pass rush unless Willis, Bowman, Whitner, Goldson or a corner blitzes. (I think this happens in the dime about 1/3 of the time).  To summarize,, I would expect A LOT (80%) of pas defense and very little base. I think the prospect of Manning trying to go deep against base on 1st down is something the 49ers are aware of a will try to avoid. We can probably expect to see a lot of "two - man" defense, in which Goldson and Whitner play zone fairly deep over the middle, and the ILB's and corners provide man coverage underneath (and sometimes further down the field as needed).  This will be an important test of the 49er pass defense.

Final thoughts, some have criticized Goldson for his coverage abilities. I think one should also consider that his hitting effects the other teams receivers in ways that do not show up in his stats specifically.  Starting with Willis, adding Bowman and two pretty hard hitting safeties, makes going over the middle against the 49ers not exactly a walk in the park. If you do not get crushed, you may get stripped or, what else?

There are many possible factors contributing to improved results from the defense including: the emergence of Aldon Smith and Navarro Bowman, excellent play by McDonald, the addition of Whitner as a stabilizing influence in the secondary, etc. etc. 

What I would like to focus on here, however, are two things that I think may be quite important this year: 1) the effectiveness of the Nickle defense and 2) the ability to generate pressure with fewer blitzes (e.g., than less year).  I think both have allowed a secondary that is perhaps less than stellar to be quite effective as part of a very intelligently designed and executed team defense.

As you all know the advantage of a Nickle is that it is generally a better defense against the pass; the disadvantage is that can be vulnerable to the run. The 49er Nickle, as presently construed, however, includes Bowman and Willis as the ILB's. (Additionally, Goldson hits and supports the run better than average for a free safety). Particularly the former (the presence of Willis and Bowman) makes the the Niner Nickle not easy to run against, thus in the cost-benefit analysis regarding the Nickle, there would seem to be very little cost (except in short yardage situations where and extra big body in the middle is essential).

This enables the team, in my opinion, to use the Nickle more often than would otherwise be the case.  This leads to having 5 DB's on the field, for most of the game in some cases, which reduces the pressure on each safety and corner. The excellent coverage ability of Willis (and Bowman), who tends to cover tight ends in man coverage (one-on-on) underneath when required, further reduces the pressure and responsibility that passes to the secondary.

So I guess what I am suggesting is that the excellence of the Willis-Bowman combination has a two part effect in improving the pass defense:

One part is that their strength against the run discourages teams from trying to run at our Nickle, reduces, perhaps dramatically, the incentive for an opposing QB to audible into the run against the Nickle. This enables the niners to use the Nickle in a wide variety of situations, i.e., on many first downs, some 2nd & 4 or even 2nd  & 3, etc.

The second is their excellence in coverage, particularly Willis, whose coverage underneath and is an obvious asset. I have heard some suggest that it may be a waste, or misuse, of Willis' talent to have him in coverage so much (when he could be attacking and  "hitting"). I  would suggest that when we see him in coverage that may be, in a real sense, the second thing he has accomplished on that play. His presence on the field, pre-snap can discourage the other team from running and force them to become somewhat one-dimensional and predictable.

Anyway, that is my 2 cents (or 5 cents). I am looking for a game by game breakdown regarding how frequently the Nickle (or dime) has been used and in what situations (down and distance). (Haven't got it yet.)  Any comments or info on that is much appreciated.

I have been really appreciating the analysis of Aldon Smith's snaps. I would like to thank everyone who contributed to that and make a suggestion for expanding that into a even more contextualized analysis of Aldon Smith and the defense. What I was thinking of is an analysis that starts with: score, down-and-distance and players on the field (or just linebackers and lineman); and then discusses the result of the play and the role of Aldon Smith, if he is on the field.  (At least this game, I think he was on the field much more often than not.)  One key thing for each play, from my perspective, would be who rushed and who went into coverage, if it is a pass play, and what they nature of the coverages were. 

I realize this might be a lot of work to do for the entire game; one way to make it more doable might be to pick a subset of series. For example, in this game their were 9 3-and-outs by Detroit; one could do an analysis of this sort for those 27 plays.  If one added in the 2 Detroit series with a single first down, that would be about another 10 plays.

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With a 6 game lead and 3 weeks to go, maybe it is over. S.F. does not have their closer, has not been hitting and, overall, has not been playing well. The Diamondbacks are coming off a 9 game winning streak, and are basically the hottest team in baseball.

But are they Diamondbacks taking this series seriously?  They seemed unfocussed last night. Twice outfielders missed the cut and there was a  bizarre mistake by the 3rd base coach (Williams) --holding Upton on a play where the giants had already conceded the run.  Together these may well have changed the outcome of the game.

In the 3rd inning the left fielder missed the cut-off (it happens). The giants 3rd base coach had strangely decided to send Ross (2 outs what the Heck?) and had the player backing up the cut made a serious effort to get the ball he could have easily throw out Ross at home. Then Beltran does not hit the 2 run home run.  That, and the extra run in the 1st, probably would have iced the giants, but it didn't happen and the giants gained some confidence and a tiny bit of momentum. It seemed odd to me. Normally a hot and confident team (AZ) does not make so many fundamental errors or do unsound things. What is going on here?

As most of you know, Carlos Beltran has a no-trade clause, as well as a $10M salary that the Mets will probably want to unburden themselves of. The no-trade clause gives him a lot of power. If he prefers to come to SF, he can insist on that and the Mets do not have the power to force him to accept another deal. This would make it a lot more likely that we can get him instead of, for example, Boston.

I would like to suggest that fans going to the game bring signs and make him feel welcome and wanted.  E.g.,

"We Love You Carlos!"

If he sees that this town has knowledgeable fans who are ready to embrace him it could tip the scales in our favor.

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I'd like to ramble a bit about possibilities and thoughts regarding our defense. The run defense is solid. Spikes and Willis in the middle, Franklin, J. Smith, Goldson, etc., etc.; I see no weaknesses in the run defense. Any thoughts on that are welcome.

Regarding pass defense, I am guardedly optimistic that the niners will do a better job than last year in containing other teams passing attacks, particularly the later part of the games. Though our personnel on pass defense is virtually unchanged, there are two rookies whose addition to the team could help the defense substantially*. There names are Iupati and Davis. The reasoning, and this is not new, is that they will be able to enable a running game, particularly in the 4th quarter, that will give the defense more time to rest and less time on the field. With fewer total plays per game, the defense will likely be less vulnerable and *more intimidating*.  I am buying it; I am drinking that Kool-aide.

One of the strengths of the nickle defense is a plethora of impressive outside linebackers who tend to fill the outside line positions of the "4-2-5" (including, Lawson, Haralson, Brooks, LaBoy).  I wonder if it might make sense to consider using Lawson in the 2nd ILB spot, alongside Willis, in the nickle*?  (Has this been discussed already?) He has good cover abilities and is an excellent pass rusher. That way he could be an every down player -which i think he would like - playing OLB in base and "ILB" in nickle, and leaving Haralson, Brooks and LaBoy to share time in a 3-person rotation in the nickle DE spots. Is that too much playbook to expect one person (Lawson) to absorb? (or does it not seem advisable for other reasons?)

The alternative, in the past, has been to use Lewis in that spot. Another possibility is Mays, perhaps much later in the season or next year, though he (Mays) might be effective from a deeper position in nickle or dime defenses.

Regarding this Sunday vs Seattle, my expectation is that the 49ers will develop a significant lead (the Seattle OL seems suspect), in which case I would be very interested in seeing Mays get a role in the pass defense* in the 3rd or 4th quarter. I imagine that game experience in straightforward passing situations would accelerate his development as an NFL player. Of course I would love to see him get at least one blitz call.

Back to Lawson, this is a key (contract) year for him; he is also fighting for playing time within our aforementioned very deep and strong OLB core (i know Brooks is not healthy yet.)  I would be surprised if he doe not play very well and get at least one sack and maybe a few pressures on Sunday.

* A typical nickle would then be:

(Haralson or Briggs) McDonald Smith (Brooks or LaBoy)

         Willis     Lawson

Clements  TBrown RSmith?  Goldson Spencer

Maybe this is an over-reach, i.e., more than we need. I know Andrew Davidson is happy with our secondary and probably I should be too. But I can't help feeling that man coverage skills enable blitz packages, and with Lawson, Brooks, LaBoy and Haralson on the outside, along with Willis and Spikes (and his neck) on the inside, we have a lot of potent blitz potential that i would like to see enabled. (Not to mention J. Smith and McDonald or RJF on the DL inside on passing downs.) Additionally there are, of course, safety blitz possibilities, etc. The bottome line is: when we bring 5 or 6 from unexpected places, that is hard to stop.

The keys to doing that and not getting burned, I believe, are sound schemes (we have that with Manusky!) and some man coverage ability (enough to hold for a few seconds).

So I will get to the point and my question, which is possibly irrelevant and impossible. What would you think of paying Revis 15.2 M per year* (say, 9 M guaranteed) for one or 3 years or so in the niner backfield?  Would that upset team chemistry? Is it even necessary? Are there better options? Should we stand pat?

(* Is that an irrational salary, i.e., did the Raiders pay Nnamdi too much??)

I am not trying to make trouble here. I know he is good. Just wondering: what sort of package might be reasonable or create some interest, and possibly help you meet your needs. Let me start by suggesting a 1 and a 2? 

Okay maybe that's too high? What about a 1 and Nate Davis? He seems like a traditional Raiders style QB, very strong arm, and a lot of physical talent. Or perhaps Davis and a 2 and a 3 (or 4)?  What do you think?

Thanks,

zacksf

I would be interested in some discussion of the secondary and related issues here. To get right to the point, I am assuming that Spencer, Goldson and Clements are all starters in both base and nickle packages at corner, ("free") saftey and corner respectively.  I am assuming that people feel pretty solid with that, however, any discussion, including expectations, concerns or nuances, is welcome.

There is perhaps more uncertainty regarding the other safety position and the nickle back?  Who would people like, or expect, to see there?  What is our confidence level with that?

I am assuming the the nickle defense will include McDonald and Smith on the inside, 2 outside lb's at the line (2 of Brooks, Haralson, Lawson and LaBoy?, (does that make sense?  Am I including too many? or leaving anyone out?)), then Willis and X at linebacker, and 5 DB's. Who will play with Willis at "LB"?  (I think that is often a safety, though i suppose then it could be called a dime.)  Who will/should be the 5 DB's?  How will the nickle and dime packages vary?

To what degree do you think Mays will be able to contribute as the season progresses, and in what role?

Are there other questions/topics I have left out which are related to the secondary?

This post asked the question: who is the most under-rated player on the 49ers, with the corollary, who is likely to step-up and have a unexpectedly productive season next year.

My choice is a defensive player. Before I name him I would like to acknowledge a number of players who have played extremely well on defense.  Of course it starts with Willis. This is Patrick Willis' team, in my opinion. He defines the 49ers. In addition to Willis, Haralson and Brooks, as well as Lawson and Spikes have played well, particularly late in the year. In the secondary, Goldson has stepped-up as a play-making safety and Spencer has played quite well at corner. On the front, Justin Smith is an amazing 3-down player; Franklin and Sopoaga have been good against the run. Franklin's play in particular has helped the line-backers tremendously.

My suggestion for under-rated player in Ray MacDonald. From the championship Florida Gators, he was the 3rd round pick in 2007 (after Willis and Staley). I invite others to look at the film and critique this choice and propose others if you like.  To focus the argument, I ask this question: how were the 49ers able to put so much pressure on Warner in their 2nd game against Arizona. I think that, in addition to the better known and more lauded players, McDonald ( generally at left tackle on passing downs (and there were quite a few passing downs)) played a major role in facilitating that pressure.  That pressure, an impressive team effort, was critical in stopping a potentially potent and dangerous offense.

Is anybody analysing and discussing how the weather will effect play-book, tactics and execution for tomorrows game? I am thinking there will be snow on the field and game plans will have to be changed accordingly. For example, I would guess that DeSean Jackson becomes less of a threat in the snow, that passing may be difficult, etc.

I think snow favors aggressive defenses that like to hit. (Does that sound familiar at all?) Snow tends to flatten speed....

Thoughts? Comments?

      More important than winning, at this point, is *Joe Staley's health*. Sure it would be nice to have his pass protection on Alex's blind-side, and it would be great to have him back in the line-up in general.

         Staley is 25, has tons of talent and a great future. I hope the team will err on the side of caution in all decisions regarding how and when to begin using Staley. Talking any chance at all would be a mistake. We are all hungry to win and to win NOW. That is good. That is what football is about.  But let's not lose sight, even for a moment, of the big picture.

The point of this post is to create a place in which to focus a discussion of the 49ers' defense, including formations and player utilization, as well as the performance, talent  and  "shelf-life" issues of current players. I will start with a quick summary and some questions, and then just let the discussion go forward. (Player ages are in parentheses.)

Down lineman:
Sopoaga (28, Hawaii)
Franklin (29, Tennessee
Justin Smith (30, Missouri)

not starting in base:
Balmer (23), Jean-Francoise (23), McDonald (25),  Evans (29) and Ahmad Brooks (25) (who is large OLB /small DE type (260 lbs)).

Linebackers:
Lawson (25)
Spikes (32)
Willis (24)
Haralson (25)

Additional line-backers include:
Wilhelm (28) and Mckillop (23) (inside), and Briggs (24) and Brooks (25) (outside).

Current base-defense secondary:
Bly (32)
Spencer (27)
Lewis (29)
Goldson (25)

nickle back:
Brown (24)

I would be interested to get a better understanding of: 1) how much playing time various players are getting (e.g., Balmer, Francoise, Brooks, Francoise, Mckillop, etc.), 2) what players being used in non-base defenses and situations? (and who is being subbed into base),  3)  how well particular players seem to be playing and progressing, etc. 

Also feel free to post analysis of formations and personnel in nickel and dime defenses.

Any analysis of defensive alignments and tactics, and their implementation with the current 49er roster, is welcome.

Do the 49ers have a possibilty of getting compensation from the new york jets for tampering In the Michael Crabtree case?

Has that been determined already or will it be decided in the near future?

Does any one have an educated guess as to what they think are the likely outcomes of all this?

Is it possible we could get a 2nd or 1st round pick?

(Anyway we have two first round picks next year and that is a good start. )