SB Nation User Blog: zagreusmd

Newbie ticket question

zagreusmd — Sun, 22 Jul 2007 17:48:51 -0000

We're hoping to catch a game in August -- probably one of the games in the White Sox series -- and I'm wondering what's the best way to get tickets. I was looking at Ticketmaster just now, and the fees are ridiculous -- convenience fee, delivery fee, facility fee, on and on with "ripoff" written all over it. So I turn to you, my more seasoned colleagues: what's the smartest option? I'd rather not leave the ticket purchase to game day, and I don't want to overpay in the interest of convenience. So how should I go about buying the tickets?

Thanks.

Most ludicrous headline of the year

zagreusmd — Tue, 12 Dec 2006 15:59:02 -0000

On ESPN.com this morning: "Olney: Royals try to buy credibility with Meche."

300 character fact (from Wikipedia): "The Children's Crusade is the name given to a variety of fictional and factual events in 1212 that combine some or all of these elements: visions by a French and/or German boy, an intention to peacefully convert Muslims in the Holy Land to Christianity, bands of children marching to Italy, and children being sold into slavery. Several conflicting accounts exist, and the facts of the situation continue to be a subject of debate among historians."

O'Flaherty up, Dobbs down.

zagreusmd — Thu, 17 Aug 2006 00:16:47 -0000

USSMariner has the specifics:

http://ussmariner.com/2006/08/16/oflaherty-up-dobbs-back-to-tacoma/

Now that we have a 13-man pitching staff, the Mariners' strategy is clear: stockpile so many bullpen arms that you obviate the need for a starter. Joel Pinata will head to the mound, tip his hat to the crowd, and immediately depart for the bench, to be replaced by a reliever.

Carl Everett Death Watch

zagreusmd — Tue, 18 Jul 2006 20:25:11 -0000

Or maybe that should be "Dearth Watch," since he's provided a dearth of offense. Ha! I'll be here all week.

Anyway: word is that Everett's option for 2007 automatically vests when he gets 450 ABs. He currently stands at 291.

So when is he likely to vest? Obviously that's tricky to compute -- it depends on whether Perez starts against lefties, and whether Everett is allowed to hit against lefty relievers, etc. But who wants to bother with that? Hard work is for losers! Instead, here's a quick and dirty and almost certainly incorrect calculation, but hopefully it gets us in the right ballpark:

291 ABs in 93 games played = 3.13 AB/game, which suggests that Carl will get his 450th AB 51 games from now, or on Tuesday, September 12, against the Blue Jays. Mark your calendars.

Hargrove and the managerial effect

zagreusmd — Mon, 17 Jul 2006 00:11:46 -0000

Someone over at ussmariner raised an interesting point: on the one hand, it's a commonly-repeated claim that Hargrove has cost the Mariners four to six wins this year through bullpen mismanagement, etc., but on the other hand, it's standard wisdom among the statistically inclined that a manager has little influence over a team's fortunes -- maybe two or three games, tops, over the course of the season.

This raises an interesting question. Are we:

Seeing the spectacular implosion of the worst manager of all time;
Seeing a very bad run of managerial luck, that inevitably will swing back to the middle over the rest of the season;
Disproving that sabermetric thesis, and proving that managers have much more of an effect than it allows; or
Getting a little carried away and thinking that Hargrove is much more malignant than he actually is?

I don't like Hargrove as manager. I look forward to the day he's shown the door. But I tend to think that #4 is the closest to the truth. For instance, today's game: we're all pissed that Mateo was the pitcher used in the eleventh, while Putz caught up on his reading, but even if you use Putz there and he strikes out the side, the Mariners would still have been in a tie game on the road -- in most cases a losing scenario. It's easy to think, "Hargrove lost us that game!" but after the fifth we were never in the lead. Anger and frustration take a marginal point and make it seem definitive. Thus, while Hargrove certainly isn't good at his job, he's almost certainly not the primary reason that the Mariners are in last place.

Inside the Mariners' run differential

zagreusmd — Wed, 05 Jul 2006 21:26:05 -0000

A lot has been made lately about how the Mariners have the best run differential in the AL West. I thought I'd take a closer look at that and see how it breaks down.

Overall differential: +14 runs (421 scored, 407 allowed)

Teams the Mariners have a positive run differential against:
Padres: +16
Royals: +13
Giants: +12
Diamondbacks: +12
Devil Rays: +9
Dodgers: +6
Rangers: +4
Angels: +3

Teams the Mariners have a negative run differential against:
A's: -30
White Sox: -9
Orioles: -7
Twins: -6
Tigers: -5
Indians: -2
Rockies: -2

Run differential by opponent's division:
AL West: -23

Driven entirely by Oakland, which has not only owned us this year, it's threaded a chain through the Mariner Moose's nose and dragged it around in the mud.

AL East: +2

Positive rating driven by the +9 with the Devil Rays, but the jury is out until we've played a few games against the Yankees and Blue Jays.

AL Central: -9

+13 against Kansas City, -22 against the other teams in the division.

NL West: +44

Thank God for the Padres, Giants, and Diamondbacks, who have three of the four worst run differentials against the Mariners this year.

Overall, that +14 run differential doesn't look quite so exciting when that breaks down to +44 in interleague play and -30 against everyone else. If the Mariners are to be taken as a team with legitimate playoff aspirations, they need to start scoring some runs against American League opponents.

Where we stand

zagreusmd — Thu, 18 May 2006 23:11:59 -0000

Record: 17-25 (.405 winning pct)
Projected wins/losses: 66-96
2005 analog(s) to that record: Pittsburgh Pirates, Colorado Rockies

Winning percentage from here needed to reach .500: .533
Record of a .533 team over a full season: 86-76
2005 analog to that record: Oakland A's

Winning percentage needed to sneak into playoffs (defined as 90 wins): .608
Record of a .608 team over a full season: 99-63
2005 analog: Chicago White Sox

HA HA! Really?!

zagreusmd — Thu, 11 May 2006 15:47:50 -0000

From the Seattlest blog:

Here's how bad it's gotten for the Mariners' $15 million flop, Adrian Beltre:
Every player gets a positive-seeming statistic flashed on the scoreboard when he comes to bat. But Beltre's been so terrible (he's hitting .221), this is what the Mariners PR staff had to resort to during last night's game:
"Hitting .307 when wearing alternate blue jersey."

That is totally awesome! Imagine what depths the PR staff will have to sink to if Beltre's problems continue:

"Hitting .325 against left-handed pitchers with hot sisters."

"Lifetime .373 on-base percentage against Latvian emigres."

"Enjoying a ten-game hit streak against pitchers who kind of look like guys I went to high school with."

We've hit bottom.

zagreusmd — Fri, 05 May 2006 14:50:37 -0000

Last place in the division.

Already six games below .500, and it's only May 4th.

An experienced closer who just got demoted.

An up-and-coming centerfielder who's forgotten how to hit.

A big bopper hitting cleanup who hasn't hit anything in I can't remember how long.

A superstar-in-the-making starter who's now 1-4, could easily be 0-5, and has mysteriously lost 5 mph off his fastball.

A crop of minor leaguers so uninspiring that we won't see a good, young player until late 2007, at the earliest.

A megamillionaire third baseman who's been so bad lately that by comparison it seems really great that he's hit .250 over the last couple of weeks.

A star rightfielder who's looking more and more like he's reached the tail end of his career.

What is there about this team to feel good about?

Holy cats!

zagreusmd — Thu, 27 Apr 2006 21:05:20 -0000

The Pirates are on a pace to lose 127 games. 127! Wow. That's almost unfathomable.

You've gotta figure that no team can play that badly for an entire season. So which team do you figure will be the worst come October? Judging by team stats, three teams are in the running for the title of worst in baseball: Pittsburgh, Kansas City, and San Diego. Place your bets!

Poll

Who's suckiest?

The Royals. No one sucks like the Royals.

40 votes

The Pirates. 5-18 is no mirage.

5 votes

The Pads. God is still punishing them for those brown McDonald's uniforms.

2 votes

47 votes | Poll has closed