SB Nation User Blog: zambranofan

A prediction game for distraction purposes

zambranofan — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 20:00:04 -0000

It's not exactly halfway through the season or the All-Star break yet, but it IS July 1. Perhaps time to look ahead, rather than behind, and take this opportunity to confront one another with our wit and wisdom.

Here's the suggested format:

You create a comparison that could go either way, based on the performances of Cub players the rest of 2009. Other people vote or discuss which they believe is more likely to happen.

When we have a comparison that seems to be evenly split, I will edit this fanpost to create a poll about just that question. If there are at least 100 votes, and the split is within 3 points of 50/50 either way, you will win a genuine Wrigley Field Cubs souvenir, one of last year's giveaways. (You would have to tell me your address to receive the prize.)

Some examples:

Who will have the higher OPS versus RH pitching the rest of the year, Soriano or Bradley?
Who will have more wins, Wells or Harden?
Who will hit more homers from here out, Soto or Fox?
Who will record more strikeouts, Samardzija or Marshall?
Who will have more stolen bases, Fukudome or Theriot?

You get the idea.

What would you do to shake up the team?

zambranofan — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 02:48:44 -0000

Good bounceback by the team and bullpen today. I don't mean to start another discussion about whether the Cubs need to make major changes or not. But, ASSUMING you wanted to give this team a kick in the pants, what would you try?

As Lou, a dirt-flinging tirade at the ump?

Benching a veteran in a slump?

Shaking up the bullpen (again)?

Putting a starter NOT named Marshall or Wells in the pen?

As GM, make a major trade, even if it costs top prospects?

White flag trade, hoping the rest of the guys will react with greater effort?

Keep in mind there are some things you can't do:

You can't put a player on the DL who doesn't agree he's hurt. He can appeal through the union.

You can't send a player down who's out of options.

You can't kill a man simply with your mind. (You're not Ted Lilly.)

Here's a poll, or add your own ideas below.

Poll

What would you do to give the Cubs a kick in the grass? (Yes, many of these are crazy ideas. That's the point--Shock and Awe!)

Make Guzman, Harden, or anyone not Gregg or Marmol the closer

14 votes

Move Soriano to centerfield while Bradley is out

0 votes

Move Soriano to second base while Ramirez is out

6 votes

Give Lee a hotfoot; when he hurts his neck jumping around, play Hoffpauir/Fox

5 votes

Fire Gerald Perry; promote Von Joshua

3 votes

Freak out at an ump, preferably C.B. Bucknor

1 votes

Sell the farm: Vitters for an unmistakable godsend named ???

3 votes

Send Soto to AAA; give him Henry Blanco's Skype info

8 votes

Name Reed Johnson team captain and blogmaster

4 votes

Have Milton Bradley coach first when not playing, scream at opposing pitcher

12 votes

Deal anyone and everyone without a no trade clause

1 votes

Fire Lou Piniella

8 votes

Fire the trainer

0 votes

Draw the lineup out of a hat

6 votes

Bat the pitcher somewhere other than 9th

2 votes

73 votes | Poll has closed

Cubs' next opponent: Diamondbacks Analysis and Deals

zambranofan — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 20:20:33 -0000

Cubs' next opponent: Diamondbacks Analysis and Deals

I thought I might try this at the start of the next couple of series to see if it could generate interesting discussion.

What do you know about the Cub's next opponent?
Who has been hot or not?
Anyone you could see the Cubs acquiring later in the year?
Any player that has been overlooked in fantasy leagues?

Let's start with the Diamondbacks!
(Link is to batting stats on Yahoo.)

Sandy Alderson, Cubs CEO?

zambranofan — Mon, 02 Mar 2009 19:57:22 -0000

Sandy Alderson, Cubs CEO?

Paul Sullivan passes along the rumor in this link.

What say you, Cub fans? Crane Kenney or Sandy Alderson, or both?

What one (backup) player would you add?

zambranofan — Sun, 08 Feb 2009 18:31:12 -0000

As the Cubs near Spring Training, the roster seems pretty set. There will be some competition for the fifth starter spot, and in the bullpen. The 13th non-pitcher has been the subject of some debate on this site.

If you could advise Jim Hendry to acquire ONE MORE player before the season, who would it be and what do you think it would cost?

For me, the answer has been the same all offseason: Ben Zobrist. Tampa will not be eager to deal him unless Reid Brignac seems ready, but they are somewhat redundant players. Tampa doesn't have a lot of holes, but might be open to acquiring some young bullpen arms. I'd love for a couple young Cubs to have great Springs, like Guzman or Stevens, and be a credible offer. I would offer something like Guzman, Tony Thomas, and Darwin Barney for Zobrist. Ben would be the primary backup at SS and 3B, replacing Hoffpauir as the prime LH pinch-hitter.

Maybe you think a shut-down LH reliever is more important? Another starting pitcher, so Marshall, Heilman, and Gaudin will all be in the pen? A veteran LH hitter who can play the infield corners?

Pay not to play?

zambranofan — Tue, 03 Feb 2009 16:07:55 -0000

Some of you may be familiar with game theory. I'm no expert, but I do use and teach it in my work. For those of you not familiar, game theory is used when there are only a few players (or a few types of players), only a few variables that determine outcomes, and you can make assumptions about which outcomes each player prefers. One creative suggestion that sometimes comes out of a game theory analysis is that you might pay someone NOT to play a game.

For example, say Bank 1 is thinking of acquiring Bank 2. Bank 2 is concerned about Bank 1's plans, and tries to get Bank 3 to also bid, as a "white knight." Bank 1 may approach Bank 3 and say "We'll pay you NOT to bid on Bank 2." That payment may not be a cash transfer; it may be favorable business terms or something else. In certain situations, this kind of payment is not illegal, and actually makes everything work out to be most economically efficient. Anyway...

Does this have an application in baseball? I was thinking about the remaining free agents with some injury history, like Ken Griffey, Jr. Ironically, if he doesn't sign anywhere, the Reds are paying him even though he's not playing, because he gets $5 M a year over the next several from when he renegotiated his contract a while back. That's not what I mean by pay not to play.

What I mean is, could a team go to Griffey and say, "We think you might sign with one of our competitors. Now, we don't have a spot for you unless one of our players gets hurt. But we would like to have you available if that happens. We'll pay you $1 M to not sign a contract with any other team before June 30. If any one of our starting outfielders goes on the DL prior to June 30, we will promise to sign you for a minimum of $2 M plus incentives. Anytime after June 30, you can sign with whoever you want."

Clearly, the Cubs couldn't sign Griffey and just stash him on the DL. They could send him to the minors with his approval, so he could stay in shape. But they could also make him a coach, or announcer, or "Spring Training Instructor" or "Goodwill Ambassador" etc. He could live at home until his kids finish school for the year, go work out in Arizona for a few weeks, and join the team if needed.

Recall Roger Clemens' contract with the Astros a few years back. He pitched at home, rarely traveled, and took the first couple of months off.

Can you imagine the Cubs doing that in the future? What type of player would be involved? Is this a strategy a high-payroll team could use to keep certain free agents from signing with other teams in the division?

To push it a bit further, would the collective bargaining agreement and the commissioner's office allow a payment like this: "The Cubs have agreed to pay Ben Sheets $1 million to NOT sign with any other club in the NL Central Division over the next 3 years." Just an interesting (to me) thought experiment.

C'mon Spring Training!

Catch-all Trade Speculation Thread

zambranofan — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 13:57:39 -0000

We've had several approaches to discussing the hot stove this offseason. DGU's WWG&WWCG fanposts were a great way to structure discussion. Someone will usually start a fanpost (or seven) when a rumor hits big or a minor deal actually happens, even if it doesn't involve the Cubs.

But since the GM meetings ended, we haven't had a thread to contain all the rumors and speculation. It seems for now the Peavy rumors have died down, and there is no clear next move for the Cubs, other than perhaps signing Dempster.

So, I present this fanpost as a place for everyone to toss in their ideas. If the community doesn't like this format, that's fine. Just giving it a try.

What about Randy Johnson?

zambranofan — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 15:05:56 -0000

The D-Backs are apparently facing some salary constraints, and might not be willing to offer a competitive deal to RJ, who made $15 M last year. The Cubs have strong starting pitching, but if they lose Dempster and don't trade for another starter, are they comfortable with both Marshall and Marquis in the rotation? IMHO, Johnson could sign a one-year deal for around $8 M plus incentives for games started.

Is the Big Unit too much of an injury risk in a rotation that already has Harden? Would you (playing GM) rather sign Derek Lowe for 3 years than Johnson for 1? Would Cub fans care about Johnson approaching 300 wins, or is Wrigley going to sell out in April and May anyway?

Stats from this year: 11-10, 3.91 ERA, 173/44 K/BB in 184 innings.

He made only 10 appearances in 2007 with back troubles, but was quite effective and healthy in 2006.

Rate the trade value of current Cubs

zambranofan — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 14:56:15 -0000

While I am as guilty as others about occasionally posting wild trade ideas, I thought this alternate format might be a helpful way to discuss our ideas for next year. My claim is that the Cubs will probably deal one of their 10 most valuable trade candidates this Winter.

The basic idea is to rank the trade value of the current players under Cubs control. An EXACT ranking is probably futile, so I'll start with a four-tier division. I'm leaving off any minor leaguers who haven't appeared in Chicago yet. You can discuss them, too, if you like.

This isn't who you WANT to trade, or who you THINK will be traded, just an estimate of which players would bring the most in return. Talent, health, cost, years under control would all matter. Please critique and offer your own rankings.

1. Most Valuable

Marmol, Soto, Lilly, Harden, Marshall

2. Somewhat Valuable

Zambrano, DeRosa, Theriot, Fontenot, Pie, Gaudin

3. Least Valuable

Fukudome, Cedeno, Cotts, Marquis, Blanco, Johnson, Wells, Hill

4. Minor Prospects

Hoffpauir, Wuertz, Ascanio, Hart, Guzman

No trade clause: Lee, Soriano, Ramirez, Samardzija

My trade proposal for LH power

zambranofan — Wed, 28 May 2008 02:34:12 -0000

As has been discussed to death, there are few power-hitting outfielders available, even if the Cubs were looking to move Kosuke to centerfield.

I propose something different: a power-hitting second-baseman.

Rich Hill and Matt Murton for Kelly Johnson and Royce Ring.

Atlanta is playing well, but has a need at starting pitcher. They are loaded with LH power, with Jones, Teixiera, and McCann. Even Kotsay and Gregor Blanco are adding OBA from the left side. One of their prime prospects is Brent Lillibridge, currently a SS. They have an assortment of other potential 2Bmen: Ruben Gotay, Martin Prado, Omar Infante. Matt Diaz, their RH-hitting LFer, is struggling with a below-.600 OPS.

The Cubs could bat Johnson in the lower part of the order, with Fukudome moving up to the #2 spot. Kelly has had some minor injury problems, but DeRosa could play against lefties or fill in as needed. Now DeRosa has hit very well this year, but could see more regular time in RF, or just be the top bench guy.

I'm interested in your analysis.

UPDATE: Thanks for all the discussion. By the way, Matt Diaz went on the DL after being injured last night. The Braves might have some interest in Murton in a minor deal.