Argument Against OKC Model

P1: OKC is exceptional because of a special talent -- Kevin Durant.

P2: This was mostly a by-product of luck, not anything to do with repeatable skill.

P3/C1: Because it was luck and not skill, it is foolish to attempt to replicate the model.

C2: Therefore, we should not follow the OKC model.

I could bicker with the assessment re: OKC and being totally dependent upon Durant. They have an all-star in Westbrook, a very good player in Harden and Ibaka, and solid role players. They obviously are not contenders without Durant, but they would still be a playoff team.

But conditionally accepting that premise I take umbrage with P2 and the intermediate conclusion. Let me start my argument by asking a question: If not the OKC model, then what?

Buy free agents? Who would want to come to Washington? While it has some franchise history it cannot compete with the Lakers, Celtics, Knicks, and other iconic franchises. Now, more then ever, star players are concerned about location – be it for winning purposes or lifestyle choices. No player will choose the Wizards based on winning. While DC has it charms, it cannot compare to New York or Chicago in “big citieness,” nor can it compare to warm-weather destinations such as Miami, LA, Dallas, etc.

So, you will not attract super stars. That means you must overpay occasional all-stars to get them to come to the Wizards. But that only gets you a re-incarnation of the big three; a team good enough to win between 40-50 games and reach the 2nd round of the playoffs. Because of drafting location/cap space restraint, that team will face an extremely difficult time in ever getting better. That is hardly a path worth considering.

Conceding, for the moment, that OKC was lucky, the argument seems to suggest following a different route. But I ask what different route? You cannot buy free agents. Prada has offered the Sonics route. While this is not necessarily a bad idea, you do not have the talent base to exercise that plan currently. Instead, you have one corner stone. You need a Shawn Kemp before you go Supersonics.

Moreover, it does not seem the Supersonics course needs to be different than the OKC model. You could surround Wall+Lottery pick with hard working, decent players with high basketball IQ’s. Think of James Singleton types. They will never block future growth, but they provide solid basketball players and mentors for your franchise cornerstones. Nick Collision may be an example of a Singleton type for the OKC.

Secondly, I do not believe OKC’s success can be attributed to luck. No doubt, they experienced many breaks. But time after time their GM made masterful move after move. You do not obtain that talent level by luck. But this does tell us one thing about the OKC model; you must have a great GM to execute the model successfully.

I think the anti-OKC crowd deludes themselves thinking we can buy a championship. No superstar wants to play in Washington now. The only hope I can see is the OKC model. But we are not hopeless. First, we need a great GM to exercise the OKC model. I do not believe EG is that GM. Secondly, even if we never draft our Durant, the OKC model can be adapted. First, by building a mass of young, talented, and cheap players, the Wizards will be able to trade for the missing star player. Second, the Pistons managed to win a championship without a superstar player, but many really good players. We may not draft our Durant, but if we can draft two number 2’s (quality, not position) and two number 3’s, and 4 role players, then we have a fighting shot. Finally, by maintaining cap flexibility and adding good players we increase the attractiveness of the roster to free agents. So, I think the OKC model is a good way to acquire assets. I think obtaining those assets is the only way for the Wizards to ever compete for a title. I’d prefer a chip and a chair (luck) over no chance any day.

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Matthew recently wrote "…I don't think a fan effort to have the team spend more money on payroll would accomplish anything." I can almost envision a groupon where if X fans agree to buy Y tickets, then management will increase payroll by Z amount.

Fans could buy the tickets and would not be locked in until Y tickets were sold. If, for whatever reason, payroll was not raised to Z amount, then their tickets could be refunded. This would be a way for fans to actively increase payroll if they truly want that. I could imagine management could set up terms such that XY>Z so that they could make a profit.

It has been stated many times that a losing team's problem is cyclical. The team goes young and loses. The fanbase decreases because many do not like seeing bad baseball. Therefore, even with obtaining cheaper pieces the GM cannot add pieces through free agency because the budget was slashed as revenue decreased. This would seem to be a way to increase payroll without risk -- especially if you spread out the games available.

The Heat, with all due respect to the Magic, are the Wizards biggest challenge in winning their division. They also may stand in their way of advancing through the playoffs. With the drafting of Vesley and Singleton have the Wizards added the pieces to successfully defend and defeat the Heat? 

If we re-sign Nick Young, we can run a crunch time match-up of:

John Wall v. Mario Chalmers
Nick Young v. Dwayne Wade
Chris Singleton v. LePippen
Jan Vesley v. Chris Bosh
Pierre v. Scrub Center

Nick Young has proven he can defend against Wade effectively. Chris Singleton has the athleticism, size, and wherewithal to defend LeBron. Jan Vesley is an excellent match-up against Chris Bosh. Bosh is not a banger, he is more of a really tall three playing the four. Vesley won't be out-muscled by Bosh but can keep up athletically and  has the length to bother Bosh. Offensively, you let Wall and McGee take advantage of their mismatches. Young and Singleton (he can knock down open threes) can spread the floor and tire Wade/LeBron by making them chase after them through screens etc. Bosh doesn't always show the most awareness. Vesley may be able to sneak in a few good cuts for easy baskets. In the end, most of the offense would originate from the Heat's defensive weakness, the one and five. But defensively, we can slow them down. We can do that probably better than any team in the league, at least match-up wise. 

Ok, so I need your guys' help. It was fine watching only a few of the pen's games on VS/NHL network during the season. I didn't get to watch as many as I'd like to but I got to watch my fair share. But it is the playoffs, I dont want to miss a game. Therefore, does anyone know a good place in Washington DC to catch a Pen's game? It is a lot easier finding a Steeler bar. I figured I'd just try going to one of the Steeler bars but if any of you had specific places in mind, I'd be obliged. Thank you in advance. 

[Link]

Two year, 16 million dollar contract. While Pineiro had a solid season last year, his previous three were slightly above replacement level. I'm no expert but it didn't look like he had a change in stuff. Bad signing by the Angels? I'd say probably even for both sides. Anyhow, here's to his failure. May he lose every game against the Mariners - I guess against the Mariners was not necessary. 

Graham's note: Edited to make the link work!

It is quite clear this team cannot succeed with the current roster. But how do we want to re-make the roster? I say let us go run and gun, except with bigs that can run. I am shipping out Jamison/Butler/Haywood/Foye and try to get back atheltic wings that can run the floor/flexibility. Then I run with Blatche, McGee, athletic wing, Young and Gilbert. This lineup would be unique since we'd still have size but be able to run. Then next year, we sign a free agent that fits this system, add a lottery pick to this system and we go 8 deep.

I'd try to move Butler for Wallac

Jamison/Haywood for picks/relief/Interesting young player.

This question is all over Sports Center. So what do you all think? I would argue, even ignoring the fact the LeTravel is a terrible human being, Howard has to be the pick. The scarcity at Center is greater than the scarcity at wing. As such, even if Howard isn't the better player, he provides greater value.

This applies to the Wizards in regard to McGee. If you have a center who has the upside that McGee has, you must give him every chance to fail before trading him.

I hope this topic is ok for this site.