
zekebud
Nov 23, 2009 May 30, 2012 26 2496
In Columbus, Ohio via Upstate NY. Grad student, fan of good music and hockey.
website: In Words and Phrases
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The Lack of Skilled Forwards on the Columbus Blue Jackets
This is something I've been looking at for a little while and I put together over at my blog. I know there's this notion that the Jackets are just Rick Nash... but that's fairly accurate from the forwards, and even he's not enough. Point per game analysis isn't the best for determining player value, but I found (unsurprisingly) that the Jackets don't cut it compared to the top 10 teams in the NHL. Check it out if you're interested.
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zekebud
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Fleury of Goals
A very informative discussion and breakdown of how the narratives connected to clutch/winning goaltending are often wrong just because of being on a good team. The focus is on Marc-Andre Fleury (and Grant Fuhr), but the scope of the whole article is much broader.
Jackets Stats: GVT, Rick Nash, and the Blue Jackets
Even without the news of Rick Nash's back injury last night and the call-up of Maksim Mayorov in case the captain can't play, we're likely at a strange crossroads in the history of the Columbus Blue Jackets. It is extremely probable that last night's game or tomorrow's final home game will represent the last time Rick Nash wears a Union Blue sweater. We all know this, we all know the trade request fallout, we've been anticipating this for weeks.
But in the strangeness of it actually happening, I think it's interesting to note that Nash has statistically been the best Blue Jacket of them all. Even in this down year from Nash's production, he's still easily the team MVP just as he has been for much of his time in Columbus. To take a look at Nash's standing relative to the rest of the team, let's examine GVT.
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In Which Rick Nash Becomes a Symbol
These are strange times to be a fan of the Columbus Blue Jackets. Rebuild (or reshape?) is in full (or partial?) swing, which is painful and weird on its own. But the topic of contention is the post-deadline Rick Nash mayhem. It needs no introduction, but reflection reveals some potent thoughts going through a subset of the fanbase. I consider myself a part of that group, so I wanted to further explore why I've knee-jerk sided with Nash and if that belief is one that has merit.
Initially, it was the trade itself that weighed heavily on my mind. It still does to an extent; Nash is easily my favorite NHL player and a significant part of why I latched onto the Blue Jackets. Rationally, I excepted that moving the captain would return a significant amount and could benefit the team. Then the Howson bombshell and Nash press conference came in fairly quick succession, causing confusion and strain on my opinion of the matter. It's a difficult conundrum: how can I support someone who wants out?
And yet many, like me, are choosing to put their support behind Rick Nash. Why? I would suggest that the perception of Rick Nash has changed for us, but not for the negative. He's no longer just a player; he's now a symbol of resistance for this subset of fans to rally around.
Jackets Stats: The Overly Simplified Goalie Problem
It's tough to look at the Columbus Blue Jackets right now. Statistically, they're continuing to deal with team-wide failure. Rick Nash only has the 77th highest point total in the NHL and is off his career average totals per game (certainly not inspiring to outside fans during Nash trade discussion). Overall, the team is 28th in goals for per game, as anemic production is not limited to the captain. Clearly the Jackets are in need of some serious offensive help if they hope to be future playoff contenders.
But lately, much of the focus has been on the goalie and the defense. Why should we look at them instead of the pathetic goal scoring? By doing an overly simplified thought experiment, we can look into why terrible goaltending is something that the rest of the team can't be expected to overcome.
Jacket Stats: Career Goals Per Game
A serious concern has been brought up by a variety of commenters on the Cannon and other Columbus hockey sites, and it bites at the back of my head too. Are the Jackets going to improve at any point? And more significantly, is there any hope for the future?
It's a legitimate fear - if this team isn't actually talented enough to get anywhere, if the Jackets are really stuck with no hope, will we have to suffer through a full rebuild and watch the team be completely awful for another 5+ years before the franchise can reemerge? And if they're that bad, shouldn't the team just start over right now?
Thankfully, I don't think the team is that bad. Or rather, the team offense shouldn't be nearly this bad. However, it's obvious that something isn't working. I submit that right now the whole team is less than the sum of its parts, suggesting that some sort of chemistry or coaching problem may be to blame. But a baseless opinion doesn't really help here - let's take a look at career goals per game values for each player and the projected scoring output for the team versus current performance. Let's find out just how far off each player is from a career average year and then where the whole team would be if every player was at their average goals per game.
Hockey Analytics 2011 NHL Review
One of my favorite hockey analysis websites is back with their 2011 NHL Review - a massive 90 page document that details the performance of teams and players during the 2010-2011 NHL season. The writing is clear and thorough, and the author (Alan Ryder) provides a great introduction to his Player Contribution (PC) tool. The spreadsheet with PC data is also included for reference and reader exploration.
It's a very educational and eye-opening look at the relative value of individual players. The 90-page length makes this a slightly daunting, but very rewarding way for stat-geeks like me to spend some time reading about performance in the NHL.
Poor Contracts: Why it's Howson's Fault
As the Columbus Blue Jackets season continues to meander along with a slight "turnaround" from the abysmal start, some of the most interesting conversation has been brought on by Derick Brassard's agent. Allan Walsh's support of his client and apparent rejection of Scott Arniel has spurred more discussion of what fate the coaching staff should have.
However, at least one author has noted that blame for inaction should lie at the feet of Scott Howson. Andy Newman wrote a very insightful and essentially spot-on critique here on the Cannon, discussing how slowly the Jackets' management have reacted to poor results from the players. I also reach a similar conclusion when considering the here-and-now for the Jackets.
Yet I would submit that even more problems have come from Scott Howson than simply being slow in moving players. In fact, I think Howson has only managed to shoot himself in the foot on multiple occasions when considering roster flexibility and talent-tradability. Why is that?
His terrible contracts.
Jackets Stats: Forward Totals Per Game
The Columbus Blue Jackets season has really sucked so far, and for all sorts of reasons. The defense has been (probably rightfully) been called out as pathetic, porous, and generally ineffective. Steve Mason has been identified as both the biggest problem and sucker behind that defense. I'm honestly not sure which it is at this point, but he's not exactly helping matters.
But one area that continues to confuse me is overall offensive production. Currently, the Blue Jackets sit at 2.27 goals per game. Last year, the Jackets had a whole-season 2.56 goals per game total. While that ranked lower in the NHL, there has been a decrease in goals per game - and if not for the games against Ottawa and Detroit, the total would only be 2.00 goals per game. That's certainly not going to win many games.
So where is the offense? Should it actually be this bad? I'd like to think it shouldn't, and player history suggests things will turn around (even if not totally).
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Ohio State and Michigan Finalizing Outdoor Game Details
Right from the article:
"The Cleveland Indians are "in discussions" with Ohio State University and the University of Michigan to hold a hockey game between the two teams at Progressive Field in January, Indians director of communications and creative services Curtis Danburg said Wednesday morning."
Center of Attention (from Pension Plan Puppets)
One of the members of the Pension Plan Puppets blog (another of the SB Nation sites) has a writeup about the Maple Leafs' need for a top-talent center and what options are available to them.
Curiously, I think that need is shared with the Blue Jackets (no surprise). This is a well-written analysis of the value of centers and what it might take to get one of them. Take a few seconds to read this and see what centers are out there.
Allen York Looking to go Pro?
The Troy Record has an interesting look at what CBJ prospect goalie Allen York may do in the next few weeks. Great insight from both the paper and RPI coach Seth Appert on the Jackets' goalie situation and what may become of York.
Coming to Columbus, Looking for Ideas
We've all seen an article like this before, but it's my turn this time - I'm making a trip to visit Ohio State for grad school stuff. I was able to pick my visit day, so I'm coming the day before all the touring to see a Jackets game! This means my friends and I will be in town on Thursday this coming week for the Red Wings game.
This will be my first trip to Nationwide and the general Columbus area, so I'm looking for some ideas for things to do while in town. I'm slightly limited on actual time (have to do the Ohio State things on Friday), but I'm wondering what you guys might suggest doing Thursday night or Friday afternoon. Are there any definitive things I must see or eat in Nationwide? Are there particular parts of town I should at least consider visiting? Any ideas would be much appreciated.
I look forward to the visit and I hope to see a good game and some cool stuff in Ohio. Based on everything I've heard from you guys I should be in for a good time even if the Jackets lose. I'm pretty excited to finally see the team that used to farm in Syracuse and now houses Clarkson grad Grant Clitsome.
Blue Jackets Claim Rivet off Waivers
Via Pierre LeBrun
Support Hockey on ESPN
Hey there Leafs Fans, help us people in the US take up a hockey cause!
Recently, ESPN's Sportscenter has instituted a poll where viewers select the "Best of the Best." Each day, the ESPN-selected top play goes up against the last highlight that was victorious in the poll. For instance, for a week, the top play was a full-court shot in basketball, but was beaten by a play from the Super Bowl.
Now is our chance to put hockey into the top spot, as the OT goal in the Beanpot Final was the top play this morning. I know the Rooney goal was nice, but this is for a bigger cause. So go to the link, click on "Sportscenter" under "Shows" on the left side, and vote for the Jimmy Hayes OT Winner.
Tell your friends!
Vote for Hockey on ESPN
Recently, Sportscenter has instituted a poll where viewers select the "Best of the Best." Each day, the ESPN-selected top play goes up against the last highlight that was victorious in the poll. As an example, for a week, the top play was a full-court shot in basketball, but was beaten by a play from the Super Bowl.
Now is our chance to put hockey into the top spot, as the OT goal in the Beanpot Final was the top play this morning. So go to the link, click on "Sportscenter" on the left side, and vote Jimmy Hayes OT Winner.
Tell your friends!
Penguins' Malkin Has Torn ACL and MCL
This news comes as noted from various sources and confirmed on the Penguins' site. Evgeni Malkin had a bad-looking collision with Buffalo's Tyler Myers last night, ending with the enormous d-man landing right on Malkin's knees. The confirmation of torn ACL and MCL almost certainly means season-ending surgery.
Brutal injury and massive news for the Pens. This may drastically change their efforts near the trade deadline and is a near-irreplaceable loss for their team.
Tampa Bay Unveils New Logo and Jerseys
The Tampa Bay Lightning showed off their new logos in a press conference today. Check the link to look at the actual designs for the team. Immediate reactions are mixed (logo is sharp, but the jersey makes them look like Toronto). What do you guys think?
Jackets Stats and the Goals Against
I think it's time to take another look where the Jackets stand in the NHL. Previously, I tried to look at what was ailing the Jackets so much while they were in a tailspin-of-doom. This time, I want to look at some different metrics to see what else we can learn about the team.
Some people (including me) have suggested that the Jackets defense isn't as historically awful as we or the media claim. I have personally wondered what the Jackets goals against per game (GA/G) would be like if the team didn't have some of its blowout losses. It's an interesting concept, so I decided to follow through on it.
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Jackets Stats and the New Year
Here's a look at where the Columbus Blue Jackets stand in some statistical categories as of this afternoon:
Point Percentage (points earned/possible points): 56.6% for 15th in the league
This is a fairly good standing for a team that is supposedly ranked near the bottom 3 in the league in various power rankings. This means that CBJ are right in the middle of the pack. There is obviously room for improvement, but the season is certainly not over. Quite a few teams in the West are behind us (Phoenix, Chicago, and Anahiem - all teams that normal perception would place ahead of CBJ).
Goals Per Game: 2.55 for 23rd in the league
This is a clear weak point and something that would seem to free the defence from some responsibility. Much of the pre-season complaining was in the lack of top defenders for the Jackets. Instead, we should have been worrying about finishers and scorers. Rick Nash is doing well (tied for 7th in goals), but the other players need to step up. Maybe another playmaker would help Nash produce further, but I believe that relying on Umberger as the 2nd highest scorer on the team is pretty pathetic. He's good, but not an elite goal source.
Shots Per Game: 29.7 (20th in the league) Shots Against Per Game: 30.5 (18th in the league)
These are strange stats this year with the Devils ranking 2nd in Shots Against but near the bottom in goals against per game. This combines with Mason's strong stats when facing high numbers of shots to leave few conclusions. Obviously people here and elsewhere have called for the Jackets to shoot more, but it's hard to say if that will result in significant improvements. Our winning percentage is similar for outshooting vs being outshot (52.6% when we shoot more, 58.8 when they shoot more), and isn't very revealing.
Goals Against per Game: 2.87 for 20th in the league
Another weak point, but not nearly as poor as the ranking would suggest. Removal of the various blowout games would drastically improve this category, and 10th overall (Washington) in team defence is only at 2.62 GA/G. Defence is still not great for the Jackets, but it doesn't seem to be the statistical blame. Individual games may vary, but it would appear the scoring is more a problem.
Special Teams: Powerplay at 12.4% (29th in the league); Penalty Kill at 80.4% (21st in the league)
These are some problem areas, particularly when the new coaching staff was supposed to bring the man-advantage to a higher level. The lack of scoring likely contributes to the PP category, thus giving CBJ a double-dip of problems. PK does reveal more problems with the defence, and this is a point of real concern.
Winning Percentage when Scoring First: 87.5% for 2nd in the league
This is something extremely encouraging and a sign that the Jackets need to get that first goal. This is especially true, given that the winning percentage when trailing first is 27.3%. Not worst in the league, but still nothing we want to deal with. Every point matters and it would appear that getting the first goal is crucial.
What are my conclusions? The Jackets need to score. This seems like an obvious hockey statement, but it's especially true for a team that has such a terrible powerplay and low goals per game. While defence still isn't rock-solid, the problem this year (in my estimation) is the offence. If the team picked up another scoring threat, the powerplay likely goes up, the first goals probably increase, and that can probably get to more victories.
How do the Jackets get more scoring? I think there are options here. One choice is to more fully convert Brassard to a shooting player. His past actions indicate a playmaking style and much conversation seems to suggest the team is pushing Brass to shoot. Perhaps that will help. Another is to "fix" Filatov in the minors and get him back in a sniper role. He is supposed to be a goal scorer and he needs to get going to be of value to the Jackets. A final choice is to ship in a new scorer or setup man. The Jackets clearly need a more consistent offensive player besides Nash, but it's hard to say who that would be. Obviously something like this screams "Brad Richards," but everyone will be trying to pick him up.
The season is clearly not over, and the coaching staff is still "new." I like where we stand right now, but the Jackets need to pick up the scoring before the team can become a true threat to the top West teams. I suspect we can pull into the playoffs anyway with the return to Huselius and a calm Mason, but insurance and a chance of playoff victory would be something very exciting.
Happy New Year to everyone, and here's hoping the Jackets keep rolling!
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"What to Expect from Steve Mason"
This link is to one of my favorite hockey blogs around, Brodeur is a Fraud. This is a goalie-oriented statistics blog that looks at individual netminder performance, separating perceived skill from team advantage. The author (known as "the Contrarian Goaltender") provides a unique perspective gained from insane data-gathering and strong statistical analysis.
The particular post I'm linking to is an article from late September about our own Steve Mason. Here, the author looks at Mason's historical stats and critiques the new contract signed this summer. It's interesting to see how an outsider views Mason, especially after the recent awful play out of the former Calder-winner.
Read this one, then check out the rest of the site. Thanks to this blog, I'm now found looking more at save percentage and individual goalie play. Check out why the titular Devils goalie is a "fraud" and why Dominik Hasek is a true goalie-legend.
Filatov Sent to AHL
Right from a CBJ pres release, Filatov has been sent down and Tom Sestito has been brought up for now. We'll see how this helps the young Russian sort out his scoring touch.
Kovalchuk Signs with Devils
Quote from the Devils official Twitter:
"HE'S BACK: Ilya Kovalchuk signs with the Devils. Press conference scheduled for Tuesday at the Rock."
Thank god it's done. Let's move on now.
Clitsome, Sestito & Kolarik Signed
Article from the Dispatch - all three guys appear to have signed one year, two-way contracts. As you may know, I am super biased and very happy to see Clitsome stay with CBJ for another year.
Filatov Trade Poll
A (maybe not so) simple question. There has been a great bit of discussion following the possible Vancouver-Columbus trade involving Filatov, and I'm curious as to where everybody stands. I've limited the options here on purpose - it's not very nuanced and gives a knee-jerk reaction. Clearly the exact nature of any trade would matter, but this is more of a Filatov gauge.
I personally don't think we should move Filatov at this point, but I'm sure there are other ideas. What kind of trade (if any) do you think would justify movement of the young Russian? Would it need to be another young forward, or a better defenseman?
Jackets to Seek [4th Line] Center Via Free Agency
Some comments from GM Howson that really don't please me. I understand the thin nature of the free agent market, but he makes the 4th line sound like the top priority. Um, really?
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