One of key challenges for the Bucs in 2012 is to score more runs. They were 27th in MLB in 2010.

In looking at the 2010 stats, they wiffed in 22% of their PAs. This tied them with the Nats and Padres for last in MLB. So what if they could reduce their KOs; what would be the effect?

I created a new metric call Batting Average Make Contact (BAMC). This is Hits/(AB-SO). It takes into account HR which BABIP does not.

What was the Bucs BAMC? It was .322 which was 15th in MLB. So when they made contact, they did about average.

The league Average SO per PAs was 19%. So what if the Bucs reduced their KOs to 19%?

This means they would have put an additonal ~182 balls in play which would have resulted in ~59 more hits. The Bucs Runs/Hits was .46, so these 59 more hits would have resulted in 27 more runs. This would have made them close to the Braves run total of 641; roughly 22nd in MLB.

So my conclusion? While cutting down the KOs is not a total solution to scoring more runs, it has the potential to increase the Bucs scoring. When they make contact, their BAMC is average, but they just don't put the ball in play enough!

After they stop KOing, they need to hit more HRs. Only 8.1% of their hits left the park, making them 26th in MLB. League average was ~11%. If an additional 3% of their new hit total were HRs, their HR total would go from 107 to 152. This would place them roughly middle of MLB.. Pedro alone could add 20 of these HRs.

If you look at teams whose BAMC is close to the Bucs, whose wiffs is ~18%, and whose HR/H was 11%, the Angles are close. They scored 57 more runs than the Bucs and were 15th in MLB in Runs scored. Would you take the Angels offense for the Bucs in 2012?

BTW, the World Chapion Cardinals BAMC was .332, wiffs were 16%, HR/H was 10.7%, and they scored the most runs in the NL and 5th overall in MLB.

If offered by the Braves would you trade Andrew McCutchen for Jason Heyward straight up?

I would! As much as I like McCutchen, Heyward is a Corner OF with more power than McCutchen. Plus we have at least 4 other options for CF (Tabata, Presley, Hernandez, and Marte) but few options for CF positions.

The Braves have few CF options so maybe they might think about this one. I don't know if they have other Corner OFs but they have been good in the past at finding Corner OFs but not really good a CF since Andrew Jones.

What do you think?

Poll

Would You Trade McCutchen for Heyward?

24%

Yes!

79 votes

59%

No!

193 votes

16%

Maybe

54 votes

326 votes | Poll has closed

When the end of season sales come, I usually get a tee shirt or something. I want to go with a player on the team, rather than for a past player like Maz, Roberto, or Stargell. Everyone has a McCutchen or Walker or Hanrahan, so I am looking for something different but a player I like. Plus a player I am pretty sure will be on the team next year. I am thinking of a Presley No.44. What would you get?

Poll

What Jersey Name and Number to Get?

23%

Andrew McCutchen

22 votes

21%

Alex Presley

20 votes

4%

Garrett Jones

4 votes

25%

Neil Walker

24 votes

25%

Other

24 votes

94 votes | Poll has closed

One of most disappointing aspects of this season is the lack of offense. I had hoped that the Bucs would improve as the season progressed, but they have not.

The Bucs are 14th in the NL in Runs per Game leading only the Padres and Giants. They are almost a full run per games less than the Cardinals who are No. 1.

Below are some comparisons between the Cards and the Bucs.

Cardinals
Run/Game: 4.7
OBP:.339
BA w/RISP: .289
HR Percent w/RISP: 3.2%
KO Percent w/RISP: 17%
BB Percent w/RISP: 18.8%

Bucs
Run/Game: 3.8
OBP: .308
BA w/RISP: .254
HR Percent w/RISP: 2.5%
KO Percent w/RISP: 24%
BB Percent w/RISP: 15.7%

Where they seem to falling down is OBP and BA w/RISP. Plus they KO w/RISP more and draw less BB w/ RISP.

Basically they need to get on base more, hit better w/RISP, and draw more Walks w/RISP. Too many low average hitters in the line up who are not being patient with RISP. Some of this can be learned, but mainly they need guys who can hit for a higher average. More HR hitting would not hurt either.

Poll

Can this group of players learn to score more runs?

15%

Yes and Hurdle will teach them!

11 votes

84%

Nope. Can't learn to hit better w/RISP. We need better hitters.

60 votes

71 votes | Poll has closed

If this season has shown us anything, it is that we still have major holes in our starting 8. Looking at the roster, I see only McCutchen and Walker being starters for sure. Alvarez will still start but the jury is out if he can become a starter. When Presley and Tababta come back, we will get to see if they can cut it. Everyone else is just a placeholder or a backup.

One other thing we have learned is that strong SP (and BP) can carry us pretty far. So if we can get our SP on tract, we can be competitive until the position players show up.

Lastly, we have learned that some of position players at AAA have value, but they don't look like anything special right now.

With Lee and Ludwick added, the Pirates have a number of potential candidates they can let go. I see the choice is 2 from Overbay, Diaz, Jones, and Paul. Pearce could also be part of this group but I think the Bucs want to keep him around. Lets look at each one:

Overbay: What can you say, he has been a bust. Not hitting and his defense has not been what we hoped. The only reason you keep him is because you think he will get hot. Not likely.

Diaz: He is hitting .262 with 0 HRs. Zero HRs! His defense is not great. He can only play the OF.

Jones: He is hitting .230 with 10 HRs. His defense is not great either. He can also play 1st and is left handed.

X. Paul: He is hitting .261 with 1HR and 12 SBs. He has speed and a good arm, but takes bad routes and muffs grounders.

I think Overbay and Diaz walk the plank. Jones has some power and could be a good platoon with Ludwick. Plus Jones gives us a left-handed backup at 1B and a left-handed PH off the bench. We need X. Paul to fill in until Presley comes back. Once Presley and Tabata come back, I think X Paul and Jones are gone. Unless Tabata comes back after Sept 1st and the rosters expand, then either X.Paul of Jones stays on the roster.

IMHO, I'd drop Overbay, Diaz, and Jones. I'd bring up Bowker and give him some ABs. He has some power and his defense is better than Jones. Also Bowker can be backup at 1B. I have seen enough of Jones that I think someone else should get a shot.

Poll attached to see what we all think.

Poll

With Lee and Ludwick added, who should be let go?

60%

Overbay and Diaz

170 votes

2%

Overbay and Jones

8 votes

0%

Jones and Diaz

1 votes

23%

Overbay and Paul

65 votes

0%

Jones and Paul

2 votes

3%

Diaz and Paul

10 votes

9%

Other

26 votes

282 votes | Poll has closed

With two more hits last night, AP is hitting .362. Over the last 10 games, he is hitting .385 with 5BB and 6K.He is hitting .235 against lefties and .433 against righties. His slash line is .362/.426/.596/1.022

So is AP going to keep this up or is he headed for a crash? If he keeps this up, it will be hard to not keep him in the lineup when Tabata comes back.


IMHO, I see him cooling off but staying about .300 for the rest of the year. I'd like to see a bit more HR, but he is doing a nice job as a leadoff hitter. When Tabata comes back, I'd have Presley be the starting RF with Diaz starting against lefties. That would give us super speed in the OF and on the bases.

Poll

Is AP for Real?

15%

He will keep hitting way above .300

27 votes

57%

He will fall back to about .300

98 votes

26%

He will fall back to .280ish

44 votes

0%

He will crash and burn

0 votes

169 votes | Poll has closed

There is an old saying in baseball:

"No matter what you do, you will lose 1/3 of your games and win 1/3 of your games. It is what do you do with the 1/3 left that determine's your season."

Using the above adage, last year the Bucs were 3-51 in the games that decided their 2010 season. Identifying which games were part of the 54 which determined the Pirates season is hard to do. I have looked thru last season's games and was hard pressed to categorize the games. But when you have bad pitching, hitting, and defense it is hard to win games.

I think this recent 3 game series with the O's is a nice reflection of Baseball's Rule of Thirds and how the Pirates this year are different from last year.

Game 1 was a blow out with the O's scoring early and often to romp to a 8-3 win. Categorized this one as part of the 1/3 you were going to lose during the season.

Game 2 was a Pirate romp. The Bucs scored early, added to the lead, and won 9-3. I put this in the category of 1/3 you were going to win.

Today's game was definitely in the category of a game that determine's your season. The Pirates take a small early lead, lose the lead, take it back, and then bring in the bullpen to shut the door. This is the type of game the Pirates did not often win in the past 18 years. Once they got behind, they would lose. If they were ahead, the bull pen would cough up the lead

Recall the Met game where the Bucs took a 7-0 lead early. This was a win served up for the taking, but the Bucs let it slip away. The Mets came back, grabbed the lead, and the Bucs failed to rally. This is another game that helps decide your season. In this case the Bucs lost it.

The Bucs present .500 record is a reflection of how they are finding ways to win their share of the 54 games that will decide their season. Right now they are winning mostly due to strong SP and a solid BP with a "lights out" closer. The defense is doing it's part but the hitting is weak. They are winning few games with their bats. I think the hitting will come, but they aren't doing it yet.

I also give credit to Hurdle and his staff. I think Hurdle is helping the players win games that under Russel they would lose. I don't think it is because of his in-game moves (yea that bunting thing!). Hurdle is manipulating his lineups better. He is giving guys better chances to succeed. It the Bucs finish at .500, they will have improved by 24 games!

Obviously the Pirates need to get much better, but the signs are there. And they are much more interesting to follow!

If I hear one more "Let's trade a bunch of our junk for some big star" or "Let's trade one of the Big 5 for some top player who will be a FA in a year and half", I will pull what is left of my hair out. Do you guys actually think these ideas are any good? If you are, then you are too into your fantasy leagues.

So here is the reality:

• NH will not trade any of the Big 5 (McCutchen, Alvarez, Walker, Tabata, Hanrahan) for the next year or two. These are the core and NH will stick with them to give them time to develop. You don't trade a solid closer when you have no replacement and he is under contract for the next few years. You don't trade your No. 1 pick (Alvarez) after less than 500 ABs.
• No team with a top flight player (Met-Reyes/Wright) will be trading with the Bucs when they can be trading with playoff teams that will pay big to win this year. Nobody will give us anything of value for our junk (Overbay, Diaz, Wood, Doumit).
• Spending 10M+ for a 3 month rental player makes no sense for the Pirates this year.
• Giving up players with potential from our farm system for a rental player makes no sense right now. When the Reds pulled the Rolen deal, they were ready to win-and they did. The Pirates are still 2 years away from winning. Plus we need much better pitchers than we have now. Don't be fooled by the SP performance this year. We need the talent NH has stock piled in the minors.


So please stop acting like this is a fantasy league and get real!

So here is a summary of the SP results using the HQS/QS/Avg/Poor/Blowup rating system.

Some conclusions:

1) The SP got even better in May. In fact the SP have gone 12 straight starts that were HQS or QS. Last year the most was 6 in a row (6/27 to 7/2).

2) Of the present SP, only McDonald has a  HQS/QS/AVG % less than League Average of ~74% Last year only Ohlendorf was league average-everyone else was below average.

3) The Buc SP is now better than the Reds were last year.

4) Maholm is pitching like an Allstar. He is pitching as well as Drabek did back in 92. In fact, he is pitching better than any of the top 45 pitchers of last year. Josh Johnson was tops last year with a HQS/QS/Avg=89%

 

	2011 Pirates April	2011 Pirates May	YTD 2011 Pirates	2010 Reds	1992 Pirates	2010 Top 45
Innings Pitched Per Start	5.7	6.0	5.9	5.9	6.1	6.2
Hits Allowed Per 9	9.2	8.9	9.0	9.1	8.8	8.7
Runs Allowed Per 9	5.2	3.1	4.1	4.4	3.7	4.1
BaseRunners per 9	12.9	11.4	12.1	12.1	11.2	11.6
ER Per 9	4.5	2.9	3.7	4.1	3.3	3.8
BB Per 9	3.7	2.5	3.1	3.1	2.4	2.9
SO Per 9	5.5	6.2	5.9	6.6	4.8	7.2
HR Per 9	1.0	0.9	1.0	1.1	0.5	0.9
HQS	26%	41%	34%	34%	35%	34%
QS	26%	33%	30%	19%	25%	26%
Avg	11%	7%	9%	16%	17%	13%
Poor	7%	4%	6%	7%	4%	6%
BlowUp	30%	11%	21%	24%	19%	21%
%HQS/QS/Avg	63%	81%	74%	69%	77%	74%
%Poor/Blowup	37%	19%	26%	31%	23%	26%

 

Pitcher	Starts	HQS	QS	Avg	Poor	BlowUp	%HQS/QS/Avg
Correia	11	27%	36%	9%	9%	18%	73%
Karstans	8	25%	50%	0%	13%	13%	75%
Maholm	11	27%	36%	27%	0%	9%	91%
McDonald	11	36%	18%	9%	0%	36%	64%
Morton	10	60%	20%	0%	0%	20%	80%
Ohlendorf	2	0%	0%	0%	50%	50%	0%

Poll

What is your prediction of the SP performance for the rest of the year?

11%

It will only get better

9 votes

29%

They have been lucky so far. They will fall back.to being bad.

23 votes

58%

Stay about the same

46 votes

78 votes | Poll has closed

Some discussion went on when J-Rod was send sent back and Brandon Wood was picked up. Similar discussions occurred when Bowker was designated for assignment and Xavier Paul was grabbed. Let’s look at the results.

Wood has filled in well at 3B and SS. He is hitting .292/.370/.787. He has done the job.  His fielding seems fine. Would you prefer J-Rod filling in while Pedro has been hurt? So IMHO, he has helped the team more than J-Rod would have.

XP has also done well. Filling in for Tabata, he is hitting .316/.381/.802. He also has 2 SB, providing some speed. Lastly, Bowker cleared waivers and hence is still with the team.

So, I’d call both pickups wins and say “Good job NH!”

Poll

Rating the XP and BW Pickups

48%

Great pickups!

68 votes

34%

OK, but no big deal

48 votes

0%

Stupid moves, fire NH!

1 votes

15%

Need more time to decide

22 votes

139 votes | Poll has closed

Here is a comparison of the 2011 SP Year to Date versus last year, the 2010 Reds, our own 1992 Bucs, and the Top 25 SP in the NL last year.

Stat	2011 Pirates	2010 Pirates	2010 Reds	1992 Pirates	2010 Top 45
Innings Pitched Per Start	5.7	5.4	5.9	6.1	6.2
Hits Allowed Per 9	9.3	10.8	9.1	8.8	8.7
Runs Allowed Per 9	5.2	5.9	4.4	3.7	4.1
BaseRunners per 9	13.2	13.9	12.1	11.2	11.6
ER Per 9	4.6	5.3	4.1	3.3	3.8
BB Per 9	3.9	3.1	3.1	2.4	2.9
SO Per 9	5.4	5.7	6.6	4.8	7.2
HR Per 9	1.0	1.2	1.1	0.5	0.9
HQS	25%	19%	34%	35%	34%
QS	25%	25%	19%	25%	26%
Average	11%	16%	16%	17%	13%
Poor	7%	6%	7%	4%	6%
BlowUp	32%	35%	24%	19%	21%
%HQS/QS/Avg	61%	60%	69%	77%	74%
%Poor/Blowup	39%	40%	31%	23%	26%

The 2011 SP are generally better (except for walks) than last year, but they still are only giving the team ~60% HQS/QS/Avg starts. They have increased HQS and reduced Average Starts.  However they have a long way to go to match the 2010 Reds SP, or the 1992 Bucs.

The individual SP are below. A HQS/QS/Avg % of 74 would be average. So far only Maholm is average or better.

Pitcher	Starts	HQS	QS	Avg	Poor	BlowUp	%HQS / QS / Avg
Correia	6	33%	33%	0%	17%	17%	67%
Karstans	3	0%	67%	0%	0%	33%	67%
Maholm	6	17%	33%	33%	0%	17%	83%
McDonald	5	20%	0%	20%	0%	60%	40%
Morton	6	50%	17%	0%	0%	33%	67%
Ohlendorf	2	0%	0%	0%	50%	50%	0%
2011 Totals	28	25%	25%	11%	7%	32%	61%

Poll

How do you feel about the SP so far?

7%

Doing great! This bunch will get us into the post season!

7 votes

78%

OK, but looking forward to Owens

71 votes

11%

NH should be looking forward for help

10 votes

2%

Dump this bunch!

2 votes

90 votes | Poll has closed

Since I live in Western NY, I get my fill of Yankee baseball on free TV. During Tuesday nights game, Eric Chavez made a play at 3rd base almost identical to the play that Pedro makes in this video of last night's game:

http://pittsburgh.pirates.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=14239149&c_id=pit

The difference (as I recall because I can't grab the video to verify) was the Chavez was not as far off the line and his throw bounced to 1st. Whereas Pedro had farther to go to his right and his throw was much stronger to 1st base. I also recall that Pedro made a similar play a few days before where he threw from one knee and nailed the runner.

The Yankee announcers went wild about Chavez's play "This XX times All Star can still pick'em", etc. I wonder what they would have said if they saw Pedro's play? Possible call him a HOFer?

While individual plays don't prove a guy is a great (or even good) defender, I think the play shows Pedro has the skill to play 3rd and only needs experince to improve. Also his arm looks like a real gun!

Now if he would stop tucking his ears under his cap, maybe he would get some respect!

Poll

What do you think of Pedro as a 3rd baseman?

5%

Sucks-move him to 1st base ASAP!

5 votes

67%

Developing, give him more time

57 votes

26%

Average or Better

22 votes

0%

Deserves a Gold Glove

0 votes

84 votes | Poll has closed

Yes it is just 15 games into the season but here is a comparison of the 2010 vs 2011 SP based on the HQS/QS/Avg/Poor/BlowUp metric (plus a few others).

 

Pitcher	Starts	HQS	QS	Avg	Poor	BlowUp	%HQS/QS/Avg	%Poor/Blowup
Correia	3	33%	33%	0%	33%	0%	67%	33%
Karstans	1	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%	0%	100%
Maholm	3	33%	33%	33%	0%	0%	100%	0%
McDonald	3	0%	0%	33%	0%	67%	33%	67%
Morton	3	67%	33%	0%	0%	0%	100%	0%
Ohlendorf	2	0%	0%	0%	50%	50%	0%	100%
2011 Totals	15	27%	20%	13%	13%	27%	60%	40%
2010 Totals	159	19%	25%	16%	6%	35%	60%	40%

Stat	2011 Pirates	2010 Pirates
Games	15	159
Innings Pitched Per Start	5.7	5.4
Hits Allowed Per 9	8.9	10.8
Runs Allowed Per 9	4.9	5.9
BaseRunners per 9	12.7	13.9
ER Per 9	4.2	5.3
BB Per 9	3.9	3.1
SO Per 9	4.6	5.7
HR Per 9	1.1	1.2
SP Wins %	27%	21%
SP Loss %	47%	52%
SP ND %	27%	27%

My summary:

• More HQS, but same basic HQS/QS/Avg=60% (League Avg is 74%)
• Correia, Morton, and Maholm doing fine. The others, not so good.
• Giving Up 2 less hits per 9, 1 run less per 9
• Getting 1 Less KO/9 and issuing 1 more BB/9

 

Maybe those who have watched the two games with the Cubs can please add their comments. My goal is to appraise how the Pirate’s talent stacks up to various teams. I think the team we fielded last year at the beginning of the year had less talent than most teams we faced. However this year is different, at least in position players. So gauging the Pirate’s against other teams seems like an interesting exercise.

 

It looks like to me that the Pirate’s position player talent is equal and younger than the Cubs. With the exception of Sterling Castro, I think the Pirate’s have at least equal talent to the Cubs. The Cubs have more experience but no more talent. In fact while Castro is way better than anything we have, McCutchen is way better than any OF the Cubs have.

 

As for pitchers, I’d give the edge to the Cub’s SP. However I like our bullpen better (assuming the blow game by Meek yesterday was an aberration). Again we have talent and youth which (we hope) will prove out.

 

Comments?

The Pirates win their opener on the road and espn starts their recap (http://scores.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=310401116) with:

Play the Chicago Cubs enough times and maybe the Pittsburgh Pirates would escape the cellar of the NL Central. Or not end up with the worst record in the majors, as they did a year ago.

Cook in the Post-Gazette (http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/11091/1136161-63.stm) says:

Is anyone else concerned that the Pirates' big off-season acquisition after an 18th consecutive year of losing and a 57-105 record is a guy who won't pitch a ball, hit a ball or field a ball all season?

It can't just be me, right?

I know that having 18 losing seasons means that the writers get to kick you around, but come on! The Nationals get shutout in their home opener and no comments like this in the recap of their game.

I wish the writers would give it up and start writing about the promising stars and how they shined in the opener. Walker a Grand Slam, McCutchen a 2 run dinger, and Meek/Haranhan slamming the door. I would have started out the recap pointing out the young guys came to play.

Pretty soon the final cuts will need to be made. One question will be to keep Bowker (who is out of options). If Garrett Jones could be traded (SF since Cody Ross is out for awhile?),  has Bowker shown enough to use him to platoon in RF and backup Overbay at 1B? From what Bowker has done in ST he seems to play decent defense(maybe better than Jones) and hits with power. He is also 2 years younger than Jones.

 

What do ya'll think?

We don’t see articles about the Pirates that emphasize the young stars they have and how the team has more on the way. So here is the article I would write:

They are young and hungry. The Pirate’s 4 young stars of Andrew McCutchen, Neil Walker, Pedro Alverez, and Jose Tabata range in age from 22 to 25. Three made their MLB debuts over the last year and one the year before. Together they form the nucleus for the Pirates to build on. They are talented and only need experience to grow into stars. They have the desire to bring a winner to Pittsburgh and the talent to deliver one.

Joining this foursome will be 1st round pick Tony Sanchez in mid-2012. With the top pick in the draft in 2011, the Pirates will pick up another impact player than could make his debut in 2013. Combine these with other rising stars such as Alex Presley, Starling Marte, and Andrew Lambo; the Pirates seem to have a flow of talent on the way.

Pitching though is really the strength of the Pirate’s farm system. Right now the ML staff has developing pitchers in Russ Ohlendorf, James McDonald, and Charlie Morton who are backed up by two young bullpen stoppers in Evan Meek and Joey Hanrahan. But from AAA down the pitching talent is just beginning to show itself. Rudy Owens and Bryan Morris should join the big club this year, Jeff Locke next year, and then the real talent arrives. Two high school stars in Jameson Taillon and Stetson Allie could arrive as soon as 2013, then Luis Heredia, Zack Von Rosenberg, and Cotton Cain in 2014.

The Pirates now appear to be stocked for the future. Just when youth will be served depends on many factors, but they will be served. They are young and they are hungry.

 

I have been thinking about the bench and the dilemma of too many players to “choose” from. Do we carry a 3rd catcher? Do we keep Rodriguez? How much weight to give to Marte’s and Bowker’s ST performances?

One approach to delay making a decision is to only carry 11 pitchers but carry 14 position players for the 1st month. The risk is that the SP has a history of not going deep into games, so cutting back on the bullpen is a gamble. Also we have issues with which pitchers have options left.

But assuming we could go with 14 position players, what would we do? Well we have 10 spots “committed” (Snyder, Doumit, Overbay, Walker, Cedeno, Alvarez, Tabata, McCutchen, Diaz, and Jones), leaving 4 spots open. It looks like the team wants a 3rd catcher, if we can add Jaramillo we are down to 3 spots. We “need” 2 guys to backup SS, 2B, and 3B. One will probably be Ciraciao, so we are down to 2 spots. So we come down to selecting 2 players from Bowkers, Marte, and Rodriguez (I am assuming that Pearce gets send down because he has an option and can get playing time at 3B in AAA).

If we keep both Marte and Rodriguez, then Bowkers is waivered. If we keep Bowkers and Rodriguez, we lose a better backup at 3B in Marte. If we keep Marte and Bowkers, we may lose Rodriguez unless we can swing a deal for him.

Another consideration is playing time for all of these bench players. There is already a platoon in RF and at catcher. The rest of the positions have regulars who will play most games.

I don’t have an answer to all this. I am glad I don’t have to decide because it seems we won’t be able to keep all of these players.

OK it is still Spring Traing but is anyone else not seeing the performance that you would like/expect to see? Up until now the pitchers are usually ahead of the hitters but it seems that our pitchers are not getting people out. Too many SP seem to give up too many runs. Today Ohlendorf got lit up, yesterday Maholm did not do well.

While only just recently the starting position players began each game and some seem to be hitting (Tabata, McCutchen, Overbay), they don't seem to scoring many runs.


Overall I still think we will win 70 games this year but I am not getting a warm and fuzzey feeling seeing the ST results.

If negociations broke down between the Cards and Pujols such that he became a FA in 2012 would/should the Bucs try to sign him?

Interesting article covers King Albert's options:

 http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110204&content_id=16567580&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb


Assuming the article is right and the Cubs would be pursuing Pujols, why not the Bucs? For Pujols the Bucs might be a more attractive option thna the Cubs. The Bucs would be a younger team with budding stars, a SP staff about ready to get a bunch of good young arms, and a known manager in Hurdle. So if Pujols was interested would/should the Bucs spend $125M+ over 5 years.

Thoughts?

I wanted to compare how the Buc’s SP did the last time we were good versus the 2010 performance. The goal was to see just how much difference there was between the two staffs as a measure of how far we have to go.  I used my HQS/QS/Avg/Poor/BlowUp as the metric for SP performance. The data is from  Baseball Reference (http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/PIT/1992-schedule-scores.shtml).

 

As you might recall in 1992, we had one very good pitcher (Doug Drabek), one good pitcher (Zane Smith), the superb callup of Tim Wakefield, and bunch of ordinary pitchers. The team won 96 games (39 more than the 2010 team), threw 20 shutouts, and ranked 3rd in ERA in the NL. Other than Drabek, you could not really point to any other SP as a long term star.

 

Here is how the two SP staffs compare:

 

Stat	2010 Pirates	1992 Pirates
Innings Pitched	5.4	6.1
Hits Allowed Per 9	10.8	8.8
Runs Allowed Per 9	5.9	3.7
BaseRunners per 9	13.9	11.2
ER Per 9	5.3	3.3
BB Per 9	3.1	2.4
SO Per 9	5.7	4.8
HR Per 9	1.2	0.5
HQS%	19%	35%
QS%	25%	25%
Avg%	16%	17%
Poor%	6%	4%
BlowUp%	35%	19%
%HQS/QS/Avg	60%	77%
HQS SP Win%	11%	22%
QS SP Win%	8%	11%
Avg SP Win%	1%	3%
Poor SP Win%	1%	0%
BlowUp SP Win%	1%	0%

 

To Compare, the 1992 SP gave up 2 less ER per game, 2.7 less Baserunners, .7 less HRs while striking out .9 less per game and pitching to roughly 2 more batters (.7) per game.

 

From a defensive perspective (based on RA minus ER), in 1992 the defense added .4 runs per game while in 2010 it added .7 runs per game.

 

Looking at the HQS/QS/Avg metric, the 1992 SP had 77% of their starts be HQS/QS/Avg while the 2010 staff had only 60%. The difference is in 1992 35% of starts were HQS, while in 2010 this was only 19%. Looking at the % of BlowUps, this was reversed with 2010 having 35% BlowUps to 1992’s 19%. Note also that the 2010 SP only got wins in 11% of their HQS while the 1992 SP got wins in 22%.

 

Below the jump is the data for individual pitchers. Looking at 1992 data and using the criteria that 74% is average for a SP, in 1992 only Randy Tomlin at 66% was below average for a SP who got more than 10 starts. In 2010, only Russ Ohlendorf was at league average. In 2010, there were 139 starts given to SPs who were at 66% or lower.

 

My conclusion? Well, we need a whole mess of much better SPs for us to begin to win again. Even pitchers we considered just average (or possibly less) in 1992 were much better than almost all of our SPs in 2010.

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The Bucs are soon to announce the signing of Sidd Finch, a 53 year old flame throwing righthander who retired in 1985 after a brief tryout with the Mets during Spring Training. Finch (presently a monk at a Buddhist Temple in Nepal) still has his fastball that was once clocked at 168 mph. Finch says "I'll need to get into pitching shape, which should only take a few days since only meditation is needed to control the flight of the ball. I plan to be report with the pitchers and catchers just to get the feel of baseball again." He plans to wear his trademark black glove and hiker's boot when pitching.

 

When asked why he was returning to playing baseball, Finch explained “It just felt like the time was right to return to more structured physical activities. I played the French horn for a few years before I returned to the monastery here in Tibet. I chose the Pirates because they not one with the cosmos at this time. I hope I can bring them back into harmony.”

 

Neil Huntington said "This just shows that we are looking everywhere for talent to upgrade this team. Sidd is the kind of signing that should prove to the fans that we are serious in bringing a championship to Pittsburgh. I also think his clubhouse presence will be a positive factor on the younger players. This rounds out upgrades we were planning for 2011." When asked if Finch’s age would be an issue, Huntington said “I don’t know why it would be.”

 

New manager Clint Hurdle could not be reached for a comment at this time. It is assumed that Finch will immediately become the No. 1, 2, and 3 starters and also the closer since Finch needs very little rest between starts. As for him playing in the field during his few days of rest, that is unknown right now. However during his days with the Mets, Finch expressed an interest in playing SS.

 

The terms of Finch 's contract have not been announced, however it does not seem to matter. Finch said he was donating his salary to the poor and would sleep in the dugout and eat leftovers from the concession stands (vegetables only of course).

Finch will be in Pittsburgh in late January for a physical and contract signing. No specific date for the event has yet been set.

 

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1119283/1/index.htm

 

The DVD of Game 7 is now availible at mlb.com for $24.99, However it shows it is on backorder and won't ship for 2 to 4 weeks.So while it would be a great stocking stuffer, I doubt if we will see it before Christmas.

I'll porbably wait a few weeks and then order it. Combining it with the DVD set of the 1979 WS would make a nice baseball marathon on a winter weekend. Some beer might be need though.

The Yanks just signed Russell Martin, so  I don't think they need Doumit now.

Someone mentioned packaging Maholm with Doumit to the Yanks for something good (not sure what). That sounded like a possible idea but now with the Ynaks no longer needing a catcher, I am not sure who we would package with Maholm that would net us anything worthwhile.

Probably keeping Doumit for now while listening too offers is going to be the direction.

According to this, The Nats give Jason Werth $126M for 7 years ($18M/yr). Werth will be 38 went this contract is over. Would/should the Bucs have offered this to Werth? I think not.. I like Werth, but not for 7 years at $18M/yr.

Yes we need a RFer, but this is too long a committment. The Nats are making a big commitment but I don't see the talent in their system to capitalize on it. Who knows how good Strasberg will be when/if he comes back?

As for Werth, I guess he went for the money. Playing for the Nats is about playing for the Bucs, but I like the Bucs future better. I doubt if Werth earns any more rings with the Nats.

In mid-2008, the Bucs traded Jason Bay, Xavier Nady, and Damaso Marte for Andy LaRoche, Brandon Moss, Jose Tabata, Craig Hansen, Bryan Morris, Dan McCutchen, Jeff Karstens, and Ross Ohlendorf.  Bay and Nady were to be FA at the end of 2009. For Marte there was an option for 2008 with him also eligible to be a FA after 2009. Basically the Bucs traded 3 players who they probably would not have kept after 2009 (maybe Marte after 2008) for 8 prospects.

As of Nov 2010, LaRoche and Moss are gone from the organization. Tabata is starting in LF and Ohlendorf is possibly the Pirates best starter for the last 2 years (yes you can argue about that!). Karstens is also in rotation and has pitched well at times. McCutchen looks like a spot starter and long relief but is not a key player. The other prospects have yet to establish themselves.

If we look at the salaries (some I had to guess at) and WAR for all the players in the trades since they were traded, the totals are:

Players Traded (Bay, Nady, and Marte): $22M for 9.6 WAR in 2 months of 2008 and all of 2009.

Players Obtained: $4.5M for .6 WAR in 2 months of 2008 and all of 2009.

So the Bucs would have won 9 more games (6 in 2008 and 3 in 2009) for ~$18M.

What about draft picks since Bay was a Type A FA? The Red Sox got Bryce Brentz (pick 36) and Brandon Workman (pick 57) for Bay. The Yankees got nothing for Nady or Marte, however the Pirates might have gotten at least one more pick.

Bryce Brentz is a corner OF with power. Brandon Workman is RH SP with a fastball in the 90-95 mph range with plus movement, average curve, and good control. These are both college players. The Bucs might have picked other players, but probably of the same quality. Brentz cost $892K to sign and Workman got $800K for a total of $1.68M. Add this to the $18M they did not pay Bay, Nady, and Marte for a total of ~$20M saved.

My summary? Winning a few more games in 2008 and 2009 would have meant nothing and it would have cost us $18M. Instead of two draft picks costing us $1.8M, we have a starting LF and two SP. I’d say having $20M in the bank and 3 players at the ML level was a good deal. Maybe you could make a case that the $20M was used to sign Alverez, Sanchez, Tallon, and Allie, etc.

I'd give Neal a thumbs up for these deals.

Hardball Times has this article on cool HRs. The article says:

Actually, this is as good a place as any to commemorate the coolest home run ever hit. On July 25, 1956, a 21-year-old Roberto Clemente blasted an inside the park, walk-off grand slam to give the Pirates a 9-8 win over the Cubs. That might be the only such shot in MLB history. Coooool.

I never heard of this until now, but it is amazing! I would love if there was film/video of this some where.

Also interesting is the Bucs blew a 4 run lead giving up 7 runs in the 8th. They were down 8-5 in the bottom of the 9th. It looks like they loaded the bases with no outs, then "The Great One" lowered the boom.

OK, this is my last post (well maybe) using data I mined about SP.

Here is a comparison for the Bucs, Reds, and the "Top 45 SP" as I listed in my previous post:. By Top 45, these were the NL SP with ~26 or more starts in 2010, which was ~ 45 pitchers. I like using the Reds cause they won our division and a few years ago were as bad as us (well almost!).

 

Stat	Pirates	Reds	Top 45
Innings Pitched	5.4	5.9	6.2
Hits Allowed Per 9	10.8	9.1	8.6
Runs Allowed Per 9	5.9	4.4	4.0
BaseRunners per 9	13.9	12.1	11.5
ER Per 9	5.3	4.1	3.7
BB Per 9	3.1	3.1	2.9
SO Per 9	5.7	6.6	7.3
HR Per 9	1.2	1.1	0.9
SP Wins %	21%	36%	40%
SP Loss %	52%	28%	33%
SP ND %	27%	36%	27%
HQS%	19%	34%	36%
QS%	25%	19%	25%
Avg%	16%	16%	13%
Poor%	6%	7%	6%
BlowUp%	35%	24%	20%
%HQS/QS/Avg	60%	69%	74%
HQS Win%	55%	58%	66%
QS Win%	33%	62%	41%
Avg Win%	4%	21%	25%
Poor Win%	11%	10%	14%
BlowUp Win%	4%	3%	7%

Some interesting things:

1. Our SP lasted 1.8 innings less than the Top 45 Average. Meaning our Bullpen had to cover roughly 2 more innings per start. That put quite a strain on our BP to say the least.

2. Our SP gave up 1.4 ER more per Game that the Top 45 Average. No news there really.

3. Our SP (with help/hinerance from our defense) gave up 1.9 Runs more per Game that the Top 45 Average. The defense added ,5 runs per game. These are huge!

4. Due to our poor offense, we only won 55% of our HQS (avg was 66%), 33% or QS (avg was 41%), and 4% of Avg starts (avg was 25%). So our poor hitting did not help our SPs when they actually pitched a decent (or better) game. This was particularly true for QA/Avg starts. We actually did better in Aug/Sept. where these numbers were  62%/29%/10% respectively, but still below the average.

What does it all mean? We were not very good and deserved to loss 105 games.

As a follow up to my previous posts on HQS/QS/../BlowUp numbers for SP, I compiled stats for all NL SP with ~26 or more starts (see the list below the Jump). The average % HQS/QS/Avg was 74%. The only Pirate SP who was at least average was Ohlendorf at 74%. All other Buc SP were lower than this.

Mahlom, McDonald, Karstens, and Burris had 66%, 64%, 63%, 62% respectively.

Duke had 52% which was the lowest for all NL SP with 26 or more starts.

Here is the Buc SP Figures:

Pitcher	Starts	HQS	QS	Avg	Poor	BlowUp	%HQS/QS/Avg
Eveland	1	0%	0%	100%	0%	0%	100%
Ohlendorf	19	32%	26%	16%	0%	26%	74%
Maholm	32	16%	31%	19%	13%	22%	66%
McDonald, J	11	45%	9%	9%	9%	27%	64%
Karstens	19	11%	42%	11%	0%	37%	63%
Burres	13	38%	8%	15%	0%	38%	62%
Morton	17	0%	29%	24%	6%	41%	53%
Duke	29	17%	28%	7%	3%	45%	52%
Lincoln	9	11%	0%	33%	0%	56%	44%
McCutchen, D	9	22%	11%	11%	22%	33%	44%

Totals

159

19%

25%

16%

6%

35%

60%

OK, so what do I see in this data? The SP was no where near the league average in giving the Bucs even a chance to win the game. Only 60% of the time did a SP at least give the team an average start or better. Only 1 SP (Ohlendorf) was at least league average. Duke was espeically bad, roughly half the time (48%) he had a Poor or BlowUp start.

My conclusion? We need to get some SP who at least give us a chance 75% to win the game. Right now, we have only 1 SP who does this. The rest are awful!

Look at some of the names above Maholm, do they pop out to you as great SP? Well they all give their teams a much better chance of winning games than the guys we have!

So we don't need All Star SP, just league average to get better.

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