With two races before the Chase cutoff, can Mark Martin overcome a 101-point deficit to make NASCAR's playoff?
Not if you trust NASCAR's driver rating stat.
Martin, according to the numbers, is having a very mediocre season – 19th in the driver rating. The fact that he's 14th in points means he's overachieved considering his average running position during races, his average speed and some of the other factors the formula uses.
Clint Bowyer sits 12th in points, but is 10th in the driver rating, meaning he likely belongs in the top 12 and will stay there.
The most surprising underachiever is Juan Pablo Montoya, who is seventh among all drivers – ahead of even Denny Hamlin – but is only 19th in points.
Another underachiever – which is a relative term for him – is Jimmie Johnson, who is tops in driver rating but ninth in points. That indicates he's had some strong runs that turned into poor finishes.
Matt Kenseth is the biggest overachiever, sitting eighth in points while only running 16th in the driver rating.
Will the driver rating be able to predict this year's champion? We'll know if Johnson wins his fifth straight title in a few months.
Driver Rating
Formula combining the following categories: Win, Finish, Top-15 Finish, Average Running Position While on Lead Lap, Average Speed Under Green, Fastest Lap, Led Most Laps, Lead-Lap Finish. Maximum: 150 points per race. Must have raced in 75 percent of scheduled point-paying races.
Rank Car Driver Points Pos. Driver Rating
1 48 Jimmie Johnson 9 106.5
2 24 Jeff Gordon 2 104.4
3 31 Jeff Burton 7 100.3
4 18 Kyle Busch 3 97.3
5 29 Kevin Harvick 1 96.6
6 2 Kurt Busch 10 96.4
7 42 Juan Montoya 19 94.6
8 11 Denny Hamlin 5 91.8
9 14 Tony Stewart 6 90.9
10 33 Clint Bowyer 12 90.1
11 16 Greg Biffle 11 88.3
12 9 Kasey Kahne 16 87.0
13 99 Carl Edwards 4 86.9
14 1 Jamie McMurray 13 86.2
15 00 David Reutimann 17 84.1
16 17 Matt Kenseth 8 83.4
17 56 M Truex Jr. 20 81.1
18 39 Ryan Newman 15 80.8
19 5 Mark Martin 14 80.4
20 88 D Earnhardt Jr. 18 78.3
21 43 AJ Allmendinger 22 76.9
22 20 Joey Logano 21 76.9
23 47 Marcos Ambrose 26 69.3
24 98 Paul Menard 23 68.4
25 12 Brad Keselowski 25 66.3
26 6 David Ragan 24 65.3
27 77 Sam Hornish Jr. 28 63.0
28 82 Scott Speed 27 58.2
29 19 Elliott Sadler 29 57.3
30 78 Regan Smith 30 55.0
31 07 Robby Gordon 34 47.1
32 09 Bobby Labonte 31 46.8
33 34 Travis Kvapil 32 44.5
34 38 David Gilliland 33 43.3
35 13 Max Papis 38 34.4
36 7 Kevin Conway 35 33.5
37 87 Joe Nemechek 37 32.9