The general consensus is that the New England Patriots are superior to the New York Giants, which makes the 3-point Super Bowl XLVI point spread very tempting. But the general betting consensus has nearly two thirds of the voting public at OddsShark.com backing the Giants at +3. [ Super Bowl Matchup Report ]
So assuming no major injury situations and no weather situations inside the Lucas Oil Stadium’s dome, what meaningful trends point to reasons why the Patriots will win the game? What trends and angles point to reasons why the Giants will win the Super Bowl?
Bet Against the Patriots
1. They gave up more first downs per game in the regular season than any other team. If the Giants can grind the ball with Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs, they can keep Tom Brady off the field.
2. The preseason Super Bowl favorite has failed to win the Lombardi Trophy the past four years in a row. And who was the 6/1 favorite back in early September? The Patriots. Not since the Colts five years ago has a preseason favorite followed through with a Super Bowl victory.
3. They are just 2-6 ATS in 8 recent meetings with the Giants and have lost three straight when favored.
4. Revenge is overrated so the Super Bowl revenge theory and the ‘we-lost-to-you-this-season-so-we-will-beat-you-now’ logic is flawed.
Bet Against the Giants
1. They were horribly inconsistent and needed two wins just to finish 9-7 and make the playoffs. They have played well for five games, hardly earning them, juggernaut status in the eyes of football bettors.
2. Underdogs are 7-3 ATS in the past 10 Super Bowls but the Giants are being looked at as chalk by many.
3. The Patriots have been dominant away from home lately, going 9-2-1 ATS. This is technically a neutral-site game, but the Pats are away from home.
4. The public is supporting the Giants (more than 60% at OddsShark) – usually the betting public is wrong.
All the point spread concern misses the point that there are literally hundreds of Super Bowl wagers you can make and most of them are much easier to handicap. Like, who will win the coin toss, for example. Sounds like a toss-up but the NFC has won 14 in a row.
Like, how long will Kelly Clarkson’s rendition of the national anthem last, as another example. The over under is 1:34, by the way. Check out more than 500 Super Bowl props here and play a free props contest for cash and prizes.