Create a Player

It's a funny thing, trying to predict a player's true talent before he has any kind of sustained track record at the major league level. Organizations like Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus make their livings that way, following prospects from high school all the way to the big leagues. Their annual prospect rankings are some of the most talked-about events in the baseball world, at least off the field.

One overlooked facet of this prediction game is the video-game industry. Every year, multiple game studios release their newest crop of baseball games to the public. Within these games, the companies do their best to mimic the current state of the baseball world while also trying to give a realistic view of what might happen in the upcoming season. If you had picked up a baseball game in the spring of 2012, for example, you would have expected to see the Cardinals as the best team in baseball, Matt Kemp and Ryan Braun as MVP performers, and Justin Verlander as a strikeout machine. You would have also expected to see Albert Pujols wearing an Angels uniform for the first time, a healthy Buster Posey returning to the Giants lineup, and heralded prospect Mike Trout getting his first real shot at the big leagues.

But just how easy is it for a video-game company to get their predictions right? Did your 2012 game predict Pujols' disappointing season? Did it predict a second Giants World Series win? And, most especially, did it correctly predict Mike Trout as the second coming of Mickey Mantle?

Well, that last one isn't exactly fair, but the question stands: How good are video game companies at predicting the near future?

To explore this query, I went back and looked at the batting attributes of some future stars in the old MLB (989 Studios) and Triple Play (EA Sports) series of games originally released on the first PlayStation. Most players were chosen because they had a "sudden emergence" a few years into their careers (e.g., David Ortiz) while others were chosen to see how one amazing year affected their profile (e.g., Barry Bonds). A rundown of the more interesting players is found below.

For those wondering why I would focus on such an ancient crop of video games, there are a few reasons. First, using games from 2004 or earlier gives us a nice bit of historic perspective for our choices. Second, believe it or not, these are the games I'm most familiar with, since I played them throughout college. Third, along those same lines, these were the series of games that I could easily access. If someone has a full range of games from the later PlayStation or Xbox eras, I'd love to do the same thing for the Miguel Cabrera/Prince Fielder/Evan Longoria crop of sluggers.

Notable Figures

Mark McGwire & Sammy Sosa

	Mark McGwire				Sammy Sosa
	Average	Power	Clutch		Average	Power	Clutch
MLB '99	87	99	92	MLB '99	82	95	91
MLB 2000	90	99	92	MLB 2000	99	99	99
MLB 2001	90	99	92	MLB 2001	99	99	99
Triple Play 2001	74	99	78	Triple Play 2001	77	97	82
MLB 2002	90	99	92	MLB 2002	97	99	99
Triple Play 2002	79	99	88	Triple Play 2002	83	96	86
				MLB 2003	97	99	99
				MLB 2004	90	99	80
				MLB 2005	90	99	76

The biggies. Sadly, this experiment doesn't capture the Sosa/McGwire race quite perfectly. The Triple Play games do go back all the way to 1996, but batting attributes for the EA title don't show up until Triple Play 2001. The 989 title, at least, had attributes beginning with their second offering, MLB '99. Thanks to the silly calendar that video-game releases used to have (MLB '99 was released in 1998 using the stats from 1997), this gives us only a quick look at the pre-1998 view of Big Mac and Slammin' Sammy.

McGwire's power was already known, so his 99 in that stat is unsurprising. Sosa's 95 power ranking might be a bit more shocking, considering how surprised we all were when he hit 66 home runs in 1998. It's easy to forget that Sosa was coming off of three straight 36-plus homer campaigns, with 40 in 1996. Overall, Sosa's attributes in MLB '99 (82 contact, 95 power, 91 clutch) ranked him nearly equal with the underrated Gary Sheffield (83/95/88). McGwire, meanwhile, was nearly identical with fellow slugger Albert Belle (87/99/92 vs. 88/99/91).

The following years saw Sosa and McGwire dominating the scales. For a number of years, MLB even gave Sosa the celebrated 99/99/99 ranking. EA's Triple Play was a bit more conservative, however. McGwire earned his 99 power in the 2001 and 2002 offerings, but Sosa, even with his 180 home runs over three years, could never get past 97 power. Both players hovered around 80 on the contact scale.

Larry Walker

	Larry Walker
	Average	Power	Clutch
MLB '99	99	99	99
MLB 2000	99	99	99
MLB 2001	99	99	99
Triple Play 2001	98	89	98
MLB 2002	95	99	99
Triple Play 2002	81	72	84
MLB 2003	95	99	99
MLB 2004	96	93	96
MLB 2005	96	70	81

Video-game rankings are also a great snapshot into how we saw the baseball world only a few years ago. Take Larry Walker. Does anyone remember how great Larry Walker was on those old Rockies teams? I mean, we know he was a good player, but do we realize how good? MLB '99 does. The 99/99/99 ranking for Walker's offense lasted three full seasons before it dropped to a measly 95/99/99 in MLB 2001 and 2002.

David Ortiz

	David Ortiz
	Average	Power	Clutch
MLB '99	81	82	77
MLB 2000	81	82	77
MLB 2001	81	82	77
Triple Play 2001	46	45	38
MLB 2002	85	97	77
Triple Play 2002	71	64	61
MLB 2003	85	97	77
MLB 2004	85	89	75
MLB 2005	85	91	81

The Twins released David Ortiz after the 2002 season only to see him sign with the Red Sox and lead them to two World Series titles. So how did that young Papi look through the eyes of the PlayStation? Better than you might expect. Ortiz made his major-league debut in 1997, so he was still a very young rookie on MLB '99. Despite that, the game's makers gave him an 82 power, only a few notches below Derek Jeter's 85. Ortiz maintained that rating until MLB 2002, when he jumped to a 97 power. That was better than Jim Thome's 96.

As always, Triple Play was much more conservative. In Triple Play 2001, when Ortiz was still a prospect (he had only 10 at-bats in 1999), his attributes were set to an embarrassing 46/45/38.  After his first full season in 2000, Ortiz' stats were bumped to 71/64/61. That's not quite the 85/97/77 that 989 offered, but it was an improvement.

Ichiro Suzuki

	Ichiro
	Average	Power	Clutch
MLB 2002	84	84	70
MLB 2003	99	78	90
MLB 2004	94	75	97
MLB 2005	94	59	84

What do you do with the first position player from Japan to make it to the big leagues? Sure, Ichiro was a stud for the Orix Blue Wave, but could he handle Major League Baseball? And how would the video-game industry deal with this uncertainty? Well, for Triple Play 2002 (released prior to the 2001 season), Ichiro didn't even make the roster. For MLB 2002, when he had yet to play a game in Seattle, they played it safe. Ichiro's debut stats were 84/84/70. After his MVP and Rookie of the Year performance that season, the stat line jumped to 99/78/90. You could say he caught them by surprise. Ichiro's 2003 and 2004 stat lines were similar, though they finally dropped his power attribute to 59 in MLB 2005. Those old batting-practice tales weren't enough to justify anything better than that.

Barry Bonds

	Barry Bonds
	Average	Power	Clutch
MLB '99	94	99	99
MLB 2000	94	99	99
MLB 2001	94	99	99
Triple Play 2001	69	84	77
MLB 2002	95	99	99
Triple Play 2002	79	90	66
MLB 2003	95	99	99
MLB 2004	99	99	97

And then there's Barry. It's pretty well established that Bonds was a sure-fire Hall of Famer before his dalliance with BALCO. He won three MVPs by age 28 and signed the largest contract in history when he left for San Francisco. But then 2001 happened and everything changed. So how did video games of the era view him before and after 73?

Triple Play 2001, using stats from the 1999 season, continued its conservative ways by giving Bonds an 84 power ranking. That put him in the range of Vladimir Guerrero (84), Mo Vaughn (86), Jim Thome (84), and Jeff Bagwell (87). Big-name sluggers all, but hardly the Mark McGwires or Sammy Sosas of the league. The following season, after Bonds slugged 49 home runs, his power was raised to 90. Again, that put him in the Guerrero (90), Jason Giambi (89), and Bagwell (90) range, but not the Sosa or McGwire range. EA dropped the Triple Play series of games after Triple Play 2002, so we have no record of him post-73. (MVP Baseball 2003 was released for the Playstation 2 and Xbox in 2002.)

The MLB series, on the other hand, was always a bit more generous. Like Vaughn, Bagwell, and the rest of his Triple Play peer group, the 989 Barry Bonds had a 99 power from the get-go. As his performance improved into and beyond the record-breaking year, the video game could do nothing but up his Contact ability, moving it from 94 to 99 over the years. Bonds' final stat line in a 989 Studios game (before he withdrew himself from the MLBPA license agreement) was 99/99/97. Considering the 99/99/99 stats given Larry Walker and Sammy Sosa in prior games, it's hard to see how Bonds' 73-homer campaign is somehow ranked worse. That's the video-game world for you!

A smattering of other players' attributes from these two series:

Jeff Bagwell	Average	Power	Clutch	Derek Jeter	Average	Power	Clutch
MLB '99	94	99	99	MLB '99	93	85	88
MLB 2000	94	99	99	MLB 2000	93	85	88
MLB 2001	94	99	99	MLB 2001	93	85	88
Triple Play 2001	92	87	95	Triple Play 2001	97	74	83
MLB 2002	94	99	99	MLB 2002	93	85	88
Triple Play 2002	80	90	87	Triple Play 2002	90	69	98
MLB 2003	94	99	99	MLB 2003	93	85	88
MLB 2004	90	96	91	MLB 2004	89	89	94
MLB 2005	90	88	83	MLB 2005	89	52	75
Albert Belle	Average	Power	Clutch	Albert Pujols	Average	Power	Clutch
MLB '99	88	99	91	MLB 2003	85	97	91
MLB 2000	88	99	91	MLB 2004	92	95	95
MLB 2001	88	99	91	MLB 2005	92	80	99
Triple Play 2001	79	86	78	Manny Ramirez	Average	Power	Clutch
MLB 2002	88	99	91	MLB 2000	94	95	82
Triple Play 2002	70	80	81	MLB 2001	94	95	82
Adrian Beltre	Average	Power	Clutch	Triple Play 2001	86	90	80
MLB 2000	83	85	84	MLB 2002	90	99	82
MLB 2001	83	85	84	Triple Play 2002	95	92	94
Triple Play 2001	73	72	59	MLB 2003	90	99	82
MLB 2002	85	85	84	MLB 2004	97	95	99
Triple Play 2002	73	70	76	MLB 2005	97	84	81
MLB 2003	85	85	84	Gary Sheffield	Average	Power	Clutch
MLB 2004	79	90	87	MLB '99	83	95	88
MLB 2005	79	71	76	MLB 2000	83	95	90
Nomar Garciaparra	Average	Power	Clutch	MLB 2001	83	95	88
MLB '99	95	90	90	Triple Play 2001	80	78	67
MLB 2000	95	90	90	MLB 2002	95	96	88
MLB 2001	95	90	90	Triple Play 2002	85	88	89
Triple Play 2001	97	81	87	MLB 2003	95	96	88
MLB 2002	95	95	90	MLB 2004	90	92	97
Triple Play 2002	99	72	90	MLB 2005	90	79	99
MLB 2003	95	95	90	Miguel Tejada	Average	Power	Clutch
MLB 2004	92	91	94	MLB '99	82	81	83
MLB 2005	92	70	74	MLB 2000	82	81	83
Jason Giambi	Average	Power	Clutch	MLB 2001	82	81	83
MLB '99	90	88	82	Triple Play 2001	67	74	53
MLB 2000	90	88	82	MLB 2002	82	81	83
MLB 2001	90	88	82	Triple Play 2002	68	80	78
Triple Play 2001	85	80	69	MLB 2003	82	91	83
MLB 2002	95	99	82	MLB 2004	93	96	97
Triple Play 2002	88	89	96	MLB 2005	93	68	83
MLB 2003	95	99	82	Jim Thome	Average	Power	Clutch
MLB 2004	92	97	96	MLB '99	88	99	88
MLB 2005	92	99	73	MLB 2000	88	99	88
Vladimir Guerrero	Average	Power	Clutch	MLB 2001	88	99	88
MLB '99	89	86	79	Triple Play 2001	73	84	68
MLB 2000	89	86	79	MLB 2002	88	96	88
MLB 2001	89	86	79	Triple Play 2002	66	85	78
Triple Play 2001	86	84	80	MLB 2003	88	96	88
MLB 2002	93	95	79	MLB 2004	89	99	96
Triple Play 2002	92	90	92	MLB 2005	89	99	83
MLB 2003	93	95	79	Mo Vaughn	Average	Power	Clutch
MLB 2004	96	98	92	MLB '99	97	99	93
MLB 2005	96	73	86	MLB 2000	97	99	93
Todd Helton	Average	Power	Clutch	MLB 2001	97	99	93
MLB '99	90	88	88	Triple Play 2001	74	86	77
MLB 2000	90	88	88	MLB 2002	97	99	93
MLB 2001	90	88	88	Triple Play 2002	67	85	78
Triple Play 2001	87	81	76	MLB 2003	97	95	93
MLB 2002	99	99	88	MLB 2004	85	93	86
Triple Play 2002	98	88	93
MLB 2003	99	99	88
MLB 2004	96	95	95
MLB 2005	96	74	99

It's funny. If you look at these charts, the conservative rankings on the Triple Play games suggest that it was the slow-moving, simulation-style game of its day. In actuality, Triple Play was very easily the more arcade-style series of the two. When Triple Play was replaced in 2002 with MVP Baseball 2003, one of the major selling points was its "realistic gameplay." The MLB series, on the other hand, was always a simple, balanced version of the sport that wasn't too arcade-y or sim-heavy.

As the discrepancy between the two sets of attributes shows, different game studios could very easily rank players differently. What's more, the different game engines might have interpreted certain values differently. If Mo Vaughn has an 86 power in one game and a 99 power in the other, does that mean the first game thinks he's worse than the second, or does it just mean that "86" and "99" mean different things to the game engines? I know which one I'd put my money on.

If we understand and acknowledge these limitations, there's a lot of fun -- and, yes, even some truth -- to be found in these old video-game attributes. For a world increasingly interested in the statistics behind players' value, there's a whole treasure trove of data to be found in these old video games. Now if only there was an easier way to browse and compare it all.

Get on that, internet! I'm off to start a Home Run Derby between Larry Walker and Sammy Sosa.