2013 ULM football's 10 things to know: How high can you fly?

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

1. ...and the fourth year?

One of my favorite blurbs from last year's college football season preview series came from the ULM preview:

"The first year it sleeps, the second year it creeps, the third year it leaps."

That's ULM head coach Todd Berry talking about his program's progression entering his third year on the job. Through two years, I had been pretty enamored of Berry's efforts to win at a place where, historically, you just don't win.

He seemed to have internalized every lesson he learned in four tough years at Army -- his Black Knights went 5-42 in four seasons from 2000-03 -- and realized from the first day that you can't win games at ULM simply trying to out-talent or out-work the other team. You also have to bring something a little unorthodox to the table. In his first year in Monroe, Berry's Warhawks went 5-7, missing out on bowl eligibility by the skin of a 23-22 loss to rival UL-Lafayette. In an injury-plagued 2011 season, ULM sank to 4-8, replete with an 0-3 record in one-possession games. But in 2012, ULM most certainly leaped -- to a shocking, season-opening win over Arkansas (and nearly follow-up wins over Auburn and Baylor), to its first eight-win season at the FBS level, and to its first ever bowl appearance.

In the third year, we saw Berry's vision of ULM Funk, the combination of efficiency, resilience, pace, smack-you-in-the-mouth defense and unorthodox, well, everything that he envisioned during both the sleeping year and the creeping year.

Now what can we expect in his fourth year in charge? A steeper leap? A small peep? A crumbling heap?

2. ULM's offense returns five multi-year starters

Quarterback Kolton Browning has attempted 751 passes and rushed 460 times in his career. Despite missing five games last year, running back Jyruss Edwards has rushed 326 times, caught 57 passes and returned 47 kickoffs. Receivers Je'Ron Hamm, Tavarese Maye and Colby Harper have caught 292 career passes. Center Josh Allen, a second-team all-conference lineman in 2012, has started 30 career games. Tackle Joseph Treadwell has started 25.

There's experience, and there's experience. ULM's offense has the latter. When you've got a uniquely talented, multi-year starter at quarterback, a seasoned hand at running back, and 87 career starts on the offensive line, you can probably expect to improve from one year to the next.

Throw in a defense that returns every defensive lineman and almost every defensive back, and you've got overall depth that a Sun Belt program probably isn't supposed to have.

3. Never forget

This, also from around last year's preview, is too wonderful for words. You've raised the bar high for your 2013 entry video, ULM.

2012 Schedule & Results

Record: 8-5 | Adj. Record: 7-6 | Final F/+ Rk: 75
Date	Opponent	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L
8-Sep	at Arkansas	34-31	W	24.5 - 26.7	L
15-Sep	at Auburn	28-31	L	17.8 - 43.6	L
21-Sep	Baylor	42-47	L	32.9 - 27.2	W
29-Sep	at Tulane	63-10	W	37.2 - 7.3	W
6-Oct	at Middle Tennessee	31-17	W	23.8 - 32.4	L
13-Oct	Florida Atlantic	35-14	W	26.5 - 20.8	W
20-Oct	at Western Kentucky	43-42	W	34.5 - 25.7	W
27-Oct	South Alabama	38-24	W	30.5 - 30.2	W
3-Nov	UL-Lafayette	24-40	L	33.4 - 32.9	W
8-Nov	at Arkansas State	23-45	L	29.7 - 36.1	L
17-Nov	North Texas	42-16	W	36.5 - 36.3	W
24-Nov	at Florida International	23-17	W	13.3 - 23.7	L
28-Dec	vs. Ohio	14-45	L	20.7 - 47.5	L

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
Points Per Game	33.8	32	29.2	72
Adj. Points Per Game	27.8	68	30.0	82

4. Ups, downs, ups and downs

The end result of ULM's 2012 season was certainly a net positive, but the fall contained a seemingly infinite number of twists and turns. The Warhawks' most noteworthy results (the first three, basically) did not actually coincide with when ULM was at its best -- the offense kind of scraped by with timeliness (instead of down-to-down proficiency) against Arkansas, and in hindsight, even a decent team should have beaten Auburn; you get no credit for coming close against the Tigers in 2012. ULM plowed through most of its next five games, playing at a wonderfully high level. But Jyruss Edwards was lost for the season with five games remaining, and both the offense and defense limped home down the stretch.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 3 games): Opponent 32.5, ULM 25.1 (minus-7.4)
Adj. Points Per Game (next 6 games): ULM 31.0, Opponent 24.9 (plus-6.1)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 4 games): Opponent 35.9, ULM 25.1 (minus-10.8)

With tight losses to both Auburn and Baylor, the late fade, and a general egg in the Independence Bowl versus Ohio, there was plenty of room for disappointment last fall. Still, 8-5 is still 8-5. And again, ULM was still quite young.

Offense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	42	98	91	102
RUSHING	87	95	103	86
PASSING	27	101	79	106
Standard Downs		107	115	100
Passing Downs		77	47	92
Redzone		57	54	55

Q1 Rk	89	1st Down Rk	102
Q2 Rk	98	2nd Down Rk	92
Q3 Rk	103	3rd Down Rk	56
Q4 Rk	41

5. How far can efficiency take you?

Between pace and the fact that ULM didn't face many good defenses, the Warhawks put up pretty gaudy per-game yardage numbers, even with the late fade. But when you adjust for opponent, ULM was better at one thing than any other: efficient passing. ULM's success rates were lovely, especially when it came to passing on passing downs. Quarterbacks tend to receive a lot of the credit for making plays on such downs, which means that Kolton Browning's return in 2013 could lead to another fall of rabbits getting pulled out of hats. But still, a few more big plays wouldn't hurt. Big plays give you margin for error, and when Jyruss Edwards went down, ULM lost all of the margin it had.

Perhaps the best thing for ULM this spring could be the figurative move of Je'Ron Hamm to the No. 1 receiver spot and the further emergence of sophomore running back DeVontae McNeal. Hamm averaged nearly 15 yards per catch while complementing possession options like Brent Leonard, Tavarese Maye and Colby Harper (combined: 10.3 yards per catch), while McNeal, the rare three-star signee for Berry, tantalized in minimal opportunities. He rushed 10 times for 114 yards in garbage time against Tulane, and he broke off a 54-yard score in his lone carry versus North Texas. Efficiency is good, but if these players (or anybody else, of course) can add a little bit more explosiveness to ULM's offense, the Warhawks could be devastating.

(By the way, we can see the potential benefit to efficiency and the simple ability to stay on the field longer in ULM's fourth-quarter numbers. The Warhawks' offense was easily at its best late in games, and the defense was at its best in the first and fourth quarters. ULM had a winning record in one-possession games, and one could pretty easily correlate that success to solid fourth-quarter play and the Warhawks' ability to keep their defense fresh while wearing opponents out.)

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	Comp Rate	TD	INT	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Kolton Browning	6'1, 203	Sr.	** (5.2)	273	428	3,049	63.8%	29	10	23	5.1%	6.4
Cody Wells				66	103	700	64.1%	4	4	4	3.7%	6.3
Brayle Brown	6'2, 195	So.	** (5.3)	2	5	12	40.0%	0	1	0	0.0%	2.4
Bivins Caraway	6'0, 200	Fr.	** (5.4)

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	TD	Adj. POE
Kolton Browning	QB	6'1, 203	Sr.	** (5.2)	123	632	5.1	4.5	0	+4.2
Jyruss Edwards	RB	5'11, 191	Sr.	** (5.3)	99	438	4.4	4.7	0	-5.1
Monterrell Washington	RB	5'10, 197	Sr.	** (5.2)	81	354	4.4	6.2	0	-2.1
Mitchell Bailey	RB				32	156	4.9	6.4	0	+0.5
Centarius Donald	RB	6'1, 220	Sr.	** (5.2)	26	135	5.2	6.5	0	+0.4
DeVontae McNeal	RB	5'10, 209	So.	*** (5.6)	19	198	10.4	13.5	0	+9.7
Cody Wells	QB				8	30	3.8	3.1	0	-0.7
Tavarese Maye	WR	6'0, 181	Sr.	** (5.0)	6	45	7.5	5.8	0	+0.6
Brayle Brown	QB	6'2, 195	So.	** (5.3)	5	21	4.2	3.7	0	-0.8

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Yds/ Target	Target Rate	%SD	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Brent Leonard	WR				141	104	1118	73.8%	7.9	27.5%	61.0%	7.9	114.1
Je'Ron Hamm	WR	6'3, 220	Sr.	** (5.3)	101	62	915	61.4%	9.1	19.7%	60.4%	9.1	93.4
Tavarese Maye	WR	6'0, 178	Sr.	** (5.0)	87	56	612	64.4%	7.0	17.0%	57.5%	7.0	62.5
Colby Harper	WR	6'0, 177	Jr.	** (5.3)	49	29	303	59.2%	6.2	9.6%	55.1%	6.1	30.9
Rashon Ceaser	WR	6'0, 182	So.	NR	31	20	262	64.5%	8.5	6.0%	51.6%	8.3	26.7
Keavon Milton	TE				27	14	146	51.9%	5.4	5.3%	81.5%	5.3	14.9
Jyruss Edwards	RB	5'11, 191	Sr.	** (5.3)	19	12	157	63.2%	8.3	3.7%	78.9%	6.4	16.0
Cortney Davis	RB	5'9, 181	So.	NR	14	12	92	85.7%	6.6	2.7%	64.3%	6.6	9.4
Tony Cook	WR	6'4, 185	So.	** (5.3)	9	5	29	55.6%	3.2	1.8%	44.4%	3.2	3.0
Monterrell Washington	RB				8	6	56	75.0%	7.0	1.6%	62.5%	7.2	5.7
Mitchell Bailey	RB				8	7	21	87.5%	2.6	1.6%	62.5%	2.6	2.1
Kevin Steed	TE	6'2, 228	Sr.	** (5.1)	6	6	14	100.0%	2.3	1.2%	100.0%	1.4	1.4
Harley Scioneaux	TE	6'5, 247	So.	** (5.4)	4	4	16	100.0%	4.0	0.8%	75.0%	5.0	1.6
Kenzee Jackson	WR	5'9, 180	Jr.	NR
Alec Osborne	WR	6'2, 221	RSFr.	** (5.4)
Ajalen Holley	WR	5'9, 180	RSFr.	** (5.3)

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	93.3	2.78	3.07	35.5%	69.8%	20.3%	105.0	4.3%	5.2%
Rank	99	89	75	101	55	86	61	54	42

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Jonathan Gill	RG				47 career starts; 2012 2nd All-Sun Belt
Josh Allen	C	6'3, 302	Sr.	*** (5.7)	30 career starts; 2012 2nd All-Sun Belt
Joseph Treadwell	LT	6'5, 308	Jr.	** (5.2)	25 career starts
Jon Fisher	LG	6'3, 296	Jr.	** (5.3)	14 career starts
Demiere Burkett	RT	6'2, 294	Jr.	** (5.2)	13 career starts
Ben Risenhoover	RG	6'2, 277	Jr.	** (5.3)	5 career starts
Colby Mitchell	C	6'1, 263	So.	** (5.4)
Jeremy Burton	RG	6'2, 285	Jr.	*** (5.5)
Elliot Hilliard	RG	6'3, 266	Jr.	** (5.2)
Jamal Danley	LT	6'2, 294	RSFr.	** (5.3)
Jimmy Chung	LG	6'1, 277	RSFr.	** (5.3)
Jack Mervin	RT	6'4, 278	RSFr.	** (5.3)
Chase Regian	OL	6'3, 274	Fr.	** (5.4)
Michael Oubre	OL	6'1, 283	Fr.	** (5.4)

Defense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	42	80	85	79
RUSHING	87	69	77	65
PASSING	27	75	87	73
Standard Downs		43	63	34
Passing Downs		114	109	117
Redzone		102	80	113

Q1 Rk	58	1st Down Rk	60
Q2 Rk	102	2nd Down Rk	83
Q3 Rk	88	3rd Down Rk	98
Q4 Rk	62

6. Form a cloud

ULM's offense wasn't amazingly explosive, but the Warhawks and coordinator Troy Reffett's 3-3-5 defense made sure that opponents weren't either. ULM suffered all sorts of glitches on passing downs, in terms of both allowing opponents to move the chains and leaking a few too many big plays, but they were confusing and efficient early in downs. The 3-3-5 certainly allows you the speed to form a cloud in front of a given play and swarm to the ball, and ULM had the depth to pull this off in 2012.

Unfortunately, the numbers below suggest that the aggressiveness the Warhawks brought to the table on passing downs was rather misguided. ULM ranked 14th in the country in Adj. Line Yards on standard downs -- a tremendous ranking considering the size of the players involved -- but ranked an egregious 113th on passing downs, which suggests that they were too pre-occupied with getting to the quarterback and left open some large running lanes on draw plays.

In 2013, the primary task for the defense has to be either developing play-makers who can get to the quarterback without sacrificing run efficiency, or adapting their approach to passing downs. Rarely will you find a dichotomy as stark as ULM's when it comes to standard and passing downs. This simply must improve.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	101.6	2.51	3.82	37.7%	67.2%	20.9%	93.6	4.2%	5.6%
Rank	52	14	113	50	56	38	74	74	78

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Gerrand Johnson	NT	6'0, 286	So.	*** (5.6)	13	39.0	5.3%	6	4	0	0	2	0
Malcolm Edmond	DE	6'1, 268	Jr.	** (5.2)	13	34.0	4.6%	5.5	1.5	0	0	0	0
Joey Gautney	DE	6'1, 232	Jr.	** (5.3)	13	30.0	4.0%	5.5	1.5	0	2	0	0
Emanuel Jefferies	DE	6'3, 284	Sr.	** (5.1)	13	7.5	1.0%	2.5	1.5	0	1	0	0
Darius Lively	DE	6'3, 246	Jr.	** (5.4)	13	7.0	0.9%	1.5	1.5	1	0	1	0
Kentarius Caldwell	NT	6'2, 258	Sr.	** (5.2)	5	6.0	0.8%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Jackson Randle	DE	6'1, 238	So.	** (5.4)	3	1.5	0.2%	1.5	1.5	0	0	1	0
Lorenzo Jackson	DE	6'2, 213	So.	NR	3	1.5	0.2%	1	0	0	0	0	0
John Nard	NT	6'0, 281	Jr.	** (5.3)
Everett Anderson	DE	6'4, 230	Fr.	** (5.4)
David Elias	DE	6'2, 257	Fr.	** (5.4)

7. ULM's defensive line could be very, very good

Every lineman who made even 1.0 tackles in 2012 returns. The line -- well, the front six, really -- held up very well against the run when its opponent had to run, and there's no reason to think that won't be the case again in 2013. The star in 2012 was then-freshman Gerrand Johnson, a one-time Missouri signee who led the line in tackling and tackles for loss despite serving as the nose of a three-man line, but he might not even be in line to start with the return of Kentarius Caldwell from injury. The line's pass rush could certainly stand to improve (only Johnson had more than 1.5 sacks), but the experience level here is outstanding.

The question, then, becomes this: How much will ULM miss linebackers R.J. Young and DaCorris Ford? All three of ULM's starting linebackers logged at least 10.5 tackles for loss, but while junior Ray Stovall (13.5 tackles for loss, three sacks) returns, Young and Ford do not. Some exciting options return -- Cameron Blakes was a starter until he was lost for the season after three games, while sophomores Michael Johnson, Hunter Kissinger and Cody Robinson all showed decent playmaking potential in limited opportunities; of their combined 41.0 tackles, eight were behind the line of scrimmage. If the linebacking corps can hold steady, a wonderfully experienced front three and back five (seven of the top eight defensive backs return) should ensure overall defensive improvement in 2013.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
R.J. Young	LB				13	71.0	9.6%	11	0	1	2	1	3
Ray Stovall	LB	6'2, 224	Jr.	** (5.4)	13	53.0	7.1%	13.5	3	0	1	0	1
DaCorris Ford	LB				13	44.0	5.9%	10.5	3	3	2	0	0
Michael Johnson	LB	6'1, 213	So.	** (5.4)	13	15.5	2.1%	2.5	0	0	0	0	0
Cameron Blakes	LB	6'1, 227	Sr.	** (5.4)	3	15.0	2.0%	2	1	0	0	0	0
Hunter Kissinger	LB	6'2, 219	So.	** (5.2)	13	14.5	2.0%	4	2	0	0	0	1
Cody Robinson	LB	6'0, 209	So.	** (5.3)	13	11.0	1.5%	1.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Austin Moss	LB	6'2, 222	Sr.	*** (5.5)	9	3.0	0.4%	0	1	0	0	0	0

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Vincent Eddie	CB	5'8, 152	Sr.	** (5.4)	13	60.0	8.1%	2	0	1	3	0	0
Cordero Smith	S	5'11, 191	Jr.	** (5.2)	13	58.5	7.9%	0	0	1	4	2	0
Rob'Donovan Lewis	CB	5'10, 175	Jr.	NR	13	58.0	7.8%	0.5	0	2	8	0	2
Henry Mitchell	HB				13	54.0	7.3%	3	1	1	2	1	0
Isaiah Newsome	S	5'11, 191	Sr.	** (5.1)	13	46.5	6.3%	1.5	0	4	5	0	1
Mitch Lane	HB	6'0, 204	So.	NR	8	29.0	3.9%	2	1	1	4	0	1
Trey Caldwell	CB	5'9, 184	So.	NR	13	13.5	1.8%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Otis Peterson	CB	5'11, 161	Sr.	** (5.1)	13	11.0	1.5%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Brandon Hardy	S				13	8.5	1.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Preston Coleman	S	5'8, 168	Sr.	NR	13	8.0	1.1%	0	0	1	3	0	0
Roland Veal	S	6'1, 192	Jr.	** (5.2)	13	6.0	0.8%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Alex Johnson	HB	5'10, 188	RSFr.	** (5.4)
Lenzy Pipkins	S	5'11, 191	RSFr.	*** (5.5)
Grant Dotsy	DB	5'10, 165	Fr.	** (5.4)
Jarred Dunn	DB	6'0, 190	Fr.	** (5.4)
Marquis McCullum	DB	6'0, 177	Fr.	** (5.4)

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Justin Manton	6'2, 190	Jr.	48	39.8	3	17	19	75.0%
Conner Fryoux	5'8, 185	Jr.	6	33.7	0	2	3	83.3%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%
Justin Manton	6'2, 190	Jr.	71	60	22	31.0%
Conner Fryoux	5'8, 185	Jr.	1	48	0	0.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Justin Manton	6'2, 190	Jr.	57-58	4-6	66.7%	1-3	33.3%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Cortney Davis	KR	5'9, 181	So.	34	22.0	0
Mitchell Bailey	KR			4	19.2	0
Brent Leonard	PR			17	8.2	0
Tyler Cain	PR	5'8, 183	Jr.	3	1.7	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	78
Net Punting	69
Net Kickoffs	85
Touchback Pct	77
Field Goal Pct	113
Kick Returns Avg	61
Punt Returns Avg	89

8. Field position and finishing drives

ULM was great at finishing drives in 2012; the Warhawks ranked 98th overall in Off. S&P+ but 57th in the red zone. Meanwhile, they ranked a healthy 40th in Field Position Advantage. If you can both create more opportunities than your opponent and take full advantage of them, that's a pretty clear, almost cliched path to victory.

We've already discussed the offense's ridiculous experience; it certainly bears mentioning that the strength of ULM's 2012 special teams unit -- every ULM punt was all but guaranteed to result in a fair catch or a down inside the 20 -- should once again be a strength. The return game may have some work to do, but at worst, the special teams unit should hold steady. And hey, since Berry doesn't really elect to kick field goals (nine field goal attempts, 35 fourth-down conversion attempts; they were the anti-Michigan State, basically), it probably doesn't really matter that the Warhawks weren't very good at it last year.

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
31-Aug	at Oklahoma	7
7-Sep	Grambling State	NR
14-Sep	at Wake Forest	76
21-Sep	at Baylor	36
28-Sep	Tulane	111
?	Arkansas State	64
?	Georgia State	125
?	South Alabama	119
?	Texas State	107
?	Troy	102
?	UL-Lafayette	78
?	Western Kentucky	94

Five-Year F/+ Rk	100
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	116
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	+7 / +5.3
TO Luck/Game	+0.6
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	17 (8, 9)
Yds/Pt Margin**	-1.6

9. Baylor and ULM should play every year.

Just saying. Art Briles versus Todd Berry was incredibly fun in 2012, and there's no reason to think it wouldn't always be fun. This was, after all, the game in which ULM unveiled its short-lived, and glorious, two-QB formation. Can't wait till he goes with three quarterbacks in Waco this year.

10. Funk '13.

If you ask any coach in the country whether he'd rather be the favorite or the underdog, if he was being honest he would almost certainly say he prefers being the favorite. There is nothing easy to life when you are the perpetual underdog, and for most of its FBS existence, ULM has been just that.

There's no telling what ULM's ceiling might be with Todd Berry in charge, but there are pretty good odds that, whatever that ceiling is, we will see it this year. Berry has built a team with depth (in 2010, 62 players dressed out in the spring; in 2013, it's 92), toughness, and quite a bit of funk. And in a realigned, and slightly diluted, Sun Belt Conference, the perpetual underdog could be the conference favorite in 2013. ULM's spring practice begins today. What have you got for an encore, Coach Berry?

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