2013 Arkansas State's 10 things to know: Checking in on the Boise blueprint

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

1. Four years, four coaches

Well, five, actually, if you're counting interim coaches.

In 2010, Steve Roberts' nearly decade-long tenure of almosts at Arkansas State ended unceremoniously, with a second straight 4-8 season. Roberts had taken ASU to one bowl game -- the 2005 New Orleans Bowl -- but his progress was otherwise hindered by a six-win glass ceiling. ASU won six games in a season four times in nine years and won five two other times, but his Indians-turned-Red Wolves just couldn't quite get over the hump. In 2011, ASU brought in Hugh Freeze, who stayed for a year, won 10 games, and left. In 2012, ASU brought in Gus Malzahn, who stayed for a year, won 10 games (including the bowl for which he had already departed), and left.

Heading into 2013, ASU seems to be dealing with another glass ceiling of sorts. The Red Wolves can either hire a six-win coach and keep him until they don't want him anymore, or they can keep aiming high, keep reeling in really good, exciting, young coaches, and watching them leave for an SEC school once they have succeeded. They appear to have elected the latter.

Just over a decade ago, Bryan Harsin was a graduate assistant at Boise State. He became Dan Hawkins' tight ends coach at BSU, then took over the reins as offensive coordinator in 2006 (at 28 years old) when Hawkins left for Colorado and Chris Petersen took over. Mack Brown brought him to Texas for two years to resurrect an inexcusably awful offense, and despite only reasonable success -- Texas' offense absolutely improved but still wasn't elite by any standards -- his career trajectory has continued apace. At 35, the former Boise State quarterback, grad assistant, tight ends coach and offensive coordinator has become the head coach at a school that has openly yearned to follow the Boise blueprint to success.

Bryan Harsin as Texas OC. Brendan Maloney-US PRESSWIRE

2. How big is the setback?

It might not be a smart policy to begin doubting Arkansas State after it won 20 games in two seasons despite constant transition. But the transition issues could kick up a notch or two this time around.

Not only did Malzahn, like Freeze, leave after one year, but quarterback Ryan Aplin, the two-time Sun Belt player of the year, is now also gone. Aplin started more than 40 straight games for the Red Wolves, passed for 10,753 yards, rushed for another 1,756 and helped to account for 98 total touchdowns (67 through the air, 31 on the ground). After interception issues earlier in his career, he was nearly perfect in 2012: 3,342 passing yards, 68 percent completion rate, 24 touchdown passes, four interceptions. In his place is a grab bag of potentially interesting replacements.

ASU heads into 2013 also in need of replacing two of its top three receivers, its most experienced offensive lineman, its best defensive end, three of its top four linebackers and two of its top three defensive backs. The cupboard is far from bare, but one has to assume a setback of some sort is likely.

With UL-Lafayette and ULM returning vastly experienced, interesting squads and Bobby Petrino looming at Western Kentucky, ASU's odds of winning a third straight Sun Belt title aren't great. But the size of the setback -- do they slip to eight or nine wins, or do they stumble to five or six instead? -- will determine the program's trajectory moving forward. The ASU program has so many things right in recent years, and it continues to aim high. In 2013, we'll find out just how strong the bones of the program are.

3. Gus Malzahn left some presents

His tenure was not a long one, but new Auburn coach Gus Malzahn oversaw some pretty impressive recruiting in Jonesboro. His 2013 recruiting class, culled from both his own efforts and maintaining Hugh Freeze's before him, ranked 68th in the country according to Rivals.com, ahead of teams like Wake Forest, Minnesota, Kansas, and Temple. It featured a rather incredible 17 three-star recruits, and while many of them either didn't make it to campus or have already left, just check out the list of true sophomores and redshirt freshmen below. Recruiting rankings obviously only take you so far, but they do hint at a program's overall ceiling. And aside from perhaps UL-Lafayette and/or Western Kentucky, no Sun Belt team has a higher ceiling of talent than ASU.

2012 Schedule & Results

Record: 10-3 | Adj. Record: 9-4 | Final F/+ Rk: 53
Date	Opponent	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L
1-Sep	at Oregon	34-57	L	44.6 - 28.9	W
8-Sep	Memphis	33-28	W	36.8 - 27.2	W
15-Sep	at Nebraska	13-42	L	21.4 - 39.0	L
22-Sep	Alcorn State	56-0	W	37.9 - 12.9	W
29-Sep	Western Kentucky	13-26	L	19.9 - 30.8	L
4-Oct	at Florida International	34-20	W	38.0 - 21.3	W
13-Oct	South Alabama	36-29	W	35.5 - 26.9	W
23-Oct	at UL-Lafayette	50-27	W	35.4 - 29.3	W
3-Nov	at North Texas	37-19	W	38.1 - 24.0	W
8-Nov	UL-Monroe	45-23	W	40.5 - 27.0	W
17-Nov	at Troy	41-34	W	34.9 - 37.1	L
1-Dec	Middle Tennessee	45-0	W	37.3 - 12.0	W
6-Jan	vs. Kent State	17-13	W	22.2 - 22.9	L

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
Points Per Game	34.9	26	24.5	44
Adj. Points Per Game	34.0	27	26.1	48

4. Arkansas State was ridiculous after September

September was a month of ups and downs for ASU as a whole. The Red Wolves played reasonably well (average, at least) in a loss at Oregon, barely scraped by Memphis and performed pretty poorly at Nebraska, laid a nearly perfect pasting on Alcorn State, and fell behind in the Sun Belt race with a home loss to Western Kentucky that featured very little in the way of effective offense.

Then, the light bulb came on.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 4 FBS games): Opponent 31.5, ASU 30.7 (minus-0.8)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 8 games): ASU 35.2, Opponent 25.1 (plus-10.1)

Over the final two months of the season, ASU's offense improved by nearly a touchdown, and its defense improved by nearly a touchdown. There were setbacks along the way -- Troy handled ASU's defense with ease, and the offense was far from perfect in the bowl game versus Kent State -- but for the most part ASU's season-ending eight-game winning streak was accompanied by truly solid, Top 25-caliber play. (For the full season, a plus-10.1 adjusted scoring margin would have ranked 19th in the country, one spot behind Michigan and three ahead of South Carolina.)

Offense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	23	37	20	42
RUSHING	23	41	19	53
PASSING	44	34	17	37
Standard Downs		31	15	40
Passing Downs		33	21	40
Redzone		38	16	76

Q1 Rk	56	1st Down Rk	39
Q2 Rk	33	2nd Down Rk	12
Q3 Rk	14	3rd Down Rk	76
Q4 Rk	40

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	Comp Rate	TD	INT	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Ryan Aplin				276	404	3,342	68.3%	24	4	15	3.6%	7.7
Fredi Knighten	5'10, 160	So.	** (5.4)	3	5	44	60.0%	1	1	0	0.0%	8.8
Phillip Butterfield	6'2, 215	Sr.	*** (5.6)	0	1	0	0.0%	0	0	0	0.0%	0.0
Dezmond Stegall	6'1, 208	RSFr.	*** (5.5)
Chandler Rogers	6'2, 210	Jr.	** (5.3)

5. Who doesn't enjoy a good QB derby?

The race to replace Ryan Aplin does not lack for warm bodies or variety. You've got sophomore Fredi Knighten, an interesting dual-threat who makes Denard Robinson look enormous. You've got senior Phillip Butterfield, a former star recruit who has spent the last three years stuck behind Aplin on the depth chart. You've got Dezmond Stegall, a redshirt freshman with a pedigree. And you've got Chandler Rogers, a mid-year junior college transferr who will be in for spring ball. For that matter, you've also got two-star freshman Cameron Birse.

The winner of this battle might have as much to do with the approach Bryan Harsin wants to take on offense as it does with spring performance. Knighten was a run-first guy last year, and Stegall threw for 5,500 yards and rushed for 2,400 in high school. And for that matter, Butterfield has proven more with his legs (27 carries for 154 yards) than his arm (13-for-27 with a touchdown and an interception) in his limited opportunities. Meanwhile, Rogers is more of a pure passer -- he threw for 3,164 yards and 30 touchdowns at Copiah-Lincoln Community College in 2012.

At Texas, we pretty clearly learned that Harsin doesn't mind a quarterback platoon if a clear leader does not emerge.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	TD	Adj. POE
David Oku	RB	5'10, 195	Sr.	**** (5.9)	243	1,080	4.4	3.6	16	-6.9
Ryan Aplin	QB				89	548	6.2	5.4	6	+11.0
Frankie Jackson	RB	5'9, 185	Jr.	*** (5.5)	68	315	4.6	2.9	4	-0.5
Rocky Hayes	RB	5'11, 177	So.	** (5.2)	58	538	9.3	7.6	3	+20.1
Fredi Knighten	QB	5'10, 192	So.	** (5.4)	16	112	7.0	6.3	0	+1.7
Rod Smith	RB				13	104	8.0	2.4	1	+1.4
Sirgregory Thornton	RB	5'11, 190	Sr.	** (5.4)	9	76	8.4	8.4	1	+1.0
Michael Gordon	RB	5'9, 190	So.	*** (5.5)	7	38	5.4	4.0	0	-0.2
Josh Jarboe	WR				6	12	2.0	1.1	0	-1.4
Kendrick Daniels	RB	5'7, 155	RSFr.	*** (5.5)

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Yds/ Target	Target Rate	%SD	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
J.D. McKissic	WR	5'10, 185	So.	*** (5.5)	126	103	1022	81.7%	8.1	31.8%	66.7%	8.1	145.8
Josh Jarboe	WR				80	50	570	62.5%	7.1	20.2%	60.0%	7.1	81.3
Taylor Stockemer	WR				44	31	483	70.5%	11.0	11.1%	59.1%	11.1	68.9
David Oku	RB	5'10, 195	Sr.	**** (5.9)	29	20	159	69.0%	5.5	7.3%	24.1%	7.3	22.7
Julian Jones	WR	6'0, 190	Sr.	** (5.1)	27	13	394	48.1%	14.6	6.8%	55.6%	15.0	56.2
Darion Griswold	TE	6'5, 240	So.	** (5.4)	18	10	172	55.6%	9.6	4.5%	55.6%	9.6	24.5
Carlos McCants	WR	5'11, 194	Sr.	** (5.2)	17	8	168	47.1%	9.9	4.3%	52.9%	9.1	24.0
Anthony Kincy	TE				17	11	98	64.7%	5.8	4.3%	76.5%	5.2	14.0
Rocky Hayes	RB	5'11, 177	So.	** (5.2)	11	10	45	90.9%	4.1	2.8%	63.6%	4.2	6.4
R.J. Fleming	WR	5'10, 170	Sr.	** (5.2)	9	9	113	100.0%	12.6	2.3%	66.7%	12.8	16.1
Kedric Murry	TE				6	4	28	66.7%	4.7	1.5%	83.3%	3.4	4.0
Frankie Jackson	RB	5'9, 185	Jr.	*** (5.5)	5	5	61	100.0%	12.2	1.3%	0.0%	4.8	8.7
Derek Keaton	WR	5'11, 169	So.	** (5.4)	2	1	33	50.0%	16.5	0.5%	100.0%	10.0	4.7
Allen Muse	WR				2	1	7	50.0%	3.5	0.5%	100.0%	2.1	1.0
Andre Smith	TE				2	1	7	50.0%	3.5	0.5%	0.0%	1.4	1.0

6. Can ASU maintain its efficiency, all things considered?

In players like Rocky Hayes, Tayloer Stockemer and Julian Jones, ASU certainly had some big-play ability last year; but for the most part, this was an efficiency attack. J.D. McKissic and Josh Jarboe combined for 16 targets per game and only 10.4 yards per catch, while primary running backs David Oku and Frankie Jackson averaged just 4.5 yards per carry. ASU's was a Top 50 offense in terms of explosiveness but a Top 20 offense in terms of efficiency. One has to fear that Aplin's departure will hurt the Red Wolves most in that regard.

Oku, Jackson, McKissic and Jones all return, as do six linemen with starting experience -- from a line that was one of the best in the country in short-yardage situations, no less -- but the losses of Stockemer and Jarboe, not to mention the potential loss of Hayes to the defensive side of the ball (he was originally signed as a defensive back and is listed as a defensive back on the 2013 spring roster), will hurt this team's impressive precision.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	105.7	3.04	3.43	45.1%	83.0%	17.3%	175.8	3.7%	1.9%
Rank	44	51	45	9	2	34	18	42	6

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Zack McKnight	RT				26 career starts; 2012 1st All-Sun Belt
Cliff Mitchell	RG	6'5, 277	Sr.	** (4.9)	18 career starts
Aaron Williams	LT	6'5, 298	Sr.	*** (5.5)	13 career starts
Steven Haunga	LG	6'1, 315	Sr.	NR	13 career starts
Bryce Giddens	C	6'0, 285	So.	*** (5.5)	12 career starts
Eric Allen	C				8 career starts
Alan Wright	RG	6'4, 295	Jr.	** (5.4)	6 career starts
Jake Campbell	RG	6'6, 320	Sr.	** (4.9)	2 career starts
Kevin Galdino	LT
Tyler Greve	LG	6'3, 277	Jr.	** (5.2)
Steven Stevens	RT	6'4, 268	So.	** (5.3)
Jemar Clark	OL	6'6, 305	RSFr.	*** (5.6)
Michael Flint	OL	6'3, 297	RSFr.	*** (5.5)
Brennan Tutor	OL	6'4, 280	Jr.	** (5.4)

Defense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	52	70	69	70
RUSHING	59	44	54	36
PASSING	54	87	96	80
Standard Downs		53	55	51
Passing Downs		91	96	87
Redzone		69	69	80

Q1 Rk	57	1st Down Rk	63
Q2 Rk	69	2nd Down Rk	57
Q3 Rk	54	3rd Down Rk	74
Q4 Rk	78

7. ASU relied on its athleticism on defense

If you look at the chart above, you see that ASU's defensive Covariance was off-the-charts high. What does that mean? It means they tended to play quite a bit better than the average defense against bad offenses and quite a bit worse than average against good ones. Against teams like Alcorn State, North Texas and Florida International, the ASU D was a brick wall. But offenses like Nebraska's, Troy's and Western Kentucky's fared better than average against them.

If ASU had an athletic edge over you in 2012, it proved capable of completely hindering your big-play ability, generating pressure without blitzing, and stiffening nicely in short-yardage situations. With a new staff and some turnover atop the depth chart, we'll see if that remains the case in 2013.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	100.3	2.64	3.24	35.9%	64.8%	19.6%	89.3	5.0%	4.0%
Rank	59	22	64	31	44	58	81	49	104

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Tim Starson	DE				13	49.5	6.6%	13	5	0	1	0	1
Ryan Carrethers	DT	6'2, 310	Sr.	** (5.3)	13	42.5	5.7%	3.5	1	0	0	0	1
Chris Stone	DE	6'3, 245	So.	** (5.4)	13	25.5	3.4%	3	1	1	3	0	0
Eddie Porter	DE	6'3, 235	Sr.	*** (5.7)	12	23.0	3.1%	5.5	2.5	0	2	4	1
Ronnell Wright	DT				12	20.0	2.7%	2	1.5	0	1	0	1
Amos Draper	DT	6'3, 270	Sr.	*** (5.5)	13	15.5	2.1%	8	2	0	0	1	0
Dexter Blackmon	DT	6'4, 283	Sr.	** (5.4)	10	12.0	1.6%	1	0	1	0	0	0
Shervarius Jackson	DE				10	10.5	1.4%	4	1.5	0	0	1	1
Markel Owens	DT	6'2, 280	Jr.	** (5.2)	3	2.5	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Darius Dunaway	DE	6'5, 274	Sr.	** (5.0)	8	1.5	0.2%	1	1	0	0	0	0
John Gandy	DE	6'0, 245	Sr.	** (5.3)	3	1.5	0.2%	1.5	0	0	0	0	0
Quintaz Struble	DE	6'2, 235	RSFr.	*** (5.5)
Jabari Mathieu	DE	6'3, 235	Jr.	** (5.2)

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Nathan Herrold	MLB				13	81.0	10.8%	10	2	4	5	2	2
Qushaun Lee	WLB	5'11, 225	Jr.	** (5.4)	12	79.5	10.6%	2.5	0	1	5	2	0
Don Jones	SLB				13	59.5	7.9%	5.5	0	1	2	0	0
Nick Nelms	WLB				13	43.0	5.7%	5	0.5	0	2	1	0
Kyle Coleman	SLB	6'1, 215	Jr.	*** (5.6)	13	18.0	2.4%	2	0	0	1	0	1
LaAngelo Albright	MLB	5'11, 205	Sr.	** (4.9)	3	4.0	0.5%	0.5	0	0	0	0	0
Darius Buckley	LB	5'10, 223	Jr.	NR	2	0.5	0.1%	0.5	0	0	0	0	0
Quanterio Heath	LB	6'2, 200	RSFr.	*** (5.5)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Sterling Young	FS	6'2, 182	Jr.	** (5.2)	13	55.5	7.4%	1.5	0	2	6	0	1
Cole Lorigan	SS				13	40.0	5.3%	1	0	0	1	0	0
Chaz Scales	CB				13	38.0	5.1%	1	0	2	7	0	0
Andrew Tryon	CB	5'10, 185	Jr.	** (5.2)	13	33.0	4.4%	0	0	0	5	0	0
Artez Brown	CB	6'0, 170	Jr.	*** (5.6)	12	20.0	2.7%	2	1	0	3	0	0
Tausean Holmes	FS				9	17.0	2.3%	0	0	1	2	0	0
Chris Humes	SS	5'11, 190	So.	*** (5.6)	13	15.5	2.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jonathan Victorian	CB				4	4.5	0.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Terrious Triplett	DB				7	4.0	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Charleston Girley	DB	6'1, 190	So.	NR	3	1.0	0.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Ryan Jacobs	DB	6'1, 185	Jr.	NR	2	1.0	0.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Rocky Hayes	DB	5'11, 177	So.	** (5.2)
Todd Mays	DB	5'11, 200	RSFr.	*** (5.5)
Colin Janice	DB	5'10, 180	Fr.	*** (5.6)

8. The back seven has been thinned out

Chaz Scales was one of the most important pieces of ASU's back-to-back Sun Belt titles. In 2011-12, he picked off three passes, broke up 18 more, and made just 62.0 total tackles. You potentially don't want your corner making too many tackles in a pass-happy league -- it suggests his man caught a lot of passes -- and Scales' ratio of passes defensed to tackles made was stellar. (Those same data points could also suggest he wasn't much for helping on run defense, but ASU's run defense was rock solid, so that's probably not the case.)

The loss of Scales, strong safety Cole Lorigan and end Tim Starson, the team's top pass rusher, could significantly hinder a pass defense that was already a relative weak point on this defense. ASU linebackers combined for just 2.5 sacks in 2012; with the front and back of the defense thinned out a bit, defensive coordinator John Thompson (a holdover from Malzahn's staff and the interim coach during the GoDaddy.com Bowl) might need to blitz quite a bit to help the secondary out.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Neely Sullivent			28	37.7	3	3	2	17.9%
Ryan Wilbourn			18	37.6	1	7	4	61.1%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%
Luke Ferguson	6'0, 195	So.	46	56.2	11	23.9%
Brian Davis	5'11, 160	Sr.	30	54.3	7	23.3%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Brian Davis	5'11, 160	Sr.	53-56	14-17	82.4%	3-4	75.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Rocky Hayes	KR	5'11, 177	So.	20	19.0	0
Frankie Jackson	KR	5'9, 185	Jr.	9	20.9	0
David Oku	KR	5'10, 195	Sr.	4	17.8	0
Rocky Hayes	PR	5'11, 177	So.	9	3.7	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	120
Net Punting	124
Net Kickoffs	100
Touchback Pct	104
Field Goal Pct	23
Kick Returns Avg	103
Punt Returns Avg	110

9. Special teams was ... lacking

ASU might be fighting regression on both offense and defense, but special teams has nowhere to go but up. Brian Davis is a rock solid place-kicker, but every single other aspect of special teams was poor to awful in 2012.

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
31-Aug	UA-Pine Bluff	NR
7-Sep	at Auburn	59
21-Sep	at Memphis	113
28-Sep	at Missouri	39
12-Oct	Idaho	121
?	Georgia State	125
?	South Alabama	119
?	Texas State	107
?	Troy	102
?	UL-Lafayette	78
?	UL-Monroe	86
?	Western Kentucky	94

Five-Year F/+ Rk	78
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	84
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	+9 / +11.1
TO Luck/Game	-0.8
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	12 (6, 6)
Yds/Pt Margin**	-2.3

10. How's the Boise Blueprint™ coming along?

Again, Arkansas State is openly using Boise State as its model for program building. Though it recently reassigned athletic director Dean Lee to more of a fundraising position within the university, the commitment seems to be there. ASU is investing in facilities, hot young coaches, etc. And one cannot argue that the last two years have been incredibly positive for the Red Wolves on the field. One just has to fear the amount of turnover the program has endured.

If ASU can maintain a solid level of play this coming season -- without Gus Malzahn, without Ryan Aplin, and with another year of coaching transition -- then we will have no reason to doubt where the program is headed. The Red Wolves have earned quite a bit of benefit-of-the-doubt in the last two years; they will earn a lot more with a solid 2013.

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