2013 Colorado football's 10 things to know: And now we wait

In Mike MacIntyre, Colorado brought in a head coach who did at San Jose State exactly what he will be asked to do in Boulder: salvage a broken program. MacIntyre's track record is fantastic, but even if he succeeds at CU, it's going to take some time. For more Buffs, visit Ralphie Report.

By Bill Connelly@SBN_BillC Jun 27, 2013, 11:00am EDT

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

1. Righting wrongs

One hundred twenty-fourth. Colorado ranked 124th in last year's F/+ rankings. The Buffs had the sixth-worst offense in the country, the third-worst special teams, and the second-worst defense.

Aside from one miraculous quarter against Washington State (down 31-14 early in the fourth quarter, they rallied to win, 35-34), they were almost completely hopeless. They lost to Sacramento State and Colorado State. They lost by 56 to Oregon, 55 to Fresno State, 48 to Stanford, 44 to USC, 35 to Washington, 34 to Arizona State, and 28 to UCLA. Even if you don't truly believe that this was the worst team in FBS -- even if you have to lower yourself to saying things like "Come on, they weren't worse than New Mexico State; they did beat (3-9) Washington State, after all!" -- you have to admit that the Buffaloes were in the conversation.

Twenty-two years after a national title and 11 years after a Big 12 title, this program, which had already run off the rails, became an outright embarrassment.

I'm almost always a fan of giving a new coach three years to find his way. You need to get your own pieces in place to truly have a chance to succeed long-term, and two years in, you're either still dealing with your predecessor's players, or you have a lot of your own freshmen and redshirt freshmen on the field. It's just so hard to get a read for your abilities after two years on the job.

But in the case of Jon Embree, however, I know exactly why he was let go: Colorado simply didn't have a choice. Colorado fell further than it should ever fall in 2011-12, and there was a virtually zero percent chance that Embree was going to be able to turn the ship around in the next year or two. The only decent reason for giving him a third year would have simply been to see if he could stop the free fall and perhaps attract a better replacement candidate, a la Washington State with Paul Wulff. Wazzu plummeted to 120th (dead last, too) in F/+ in both 2008 and 2009, then improved to 107th and 94th in 2010-11; Wulff was let go after four years instead of two, but perhaps in part because of the improvement, the Cougars were able to attract Mike Leach to Pullman.

Colorado could have hamstrung itself by parting ways with Embree and looking for a new coach to take over a decrepit program, one of the worst in the country. But in Mike MacIntyre, they made a good hire that may turn out to be a terrific hire. MacIntyre's not only rebuilt an awful program before; he did it in record time. He inherited a San Jose State squad that had ranked 116th in 2009 and gone just 1-11 in 2010. After an awful first season, the Spartans quickly gained traction, improving to 82nd and 5-7 in 2011, then to 32nd and 11-2 in 2012.

A seasoned hand at both the pro and college level, MacIntyre has coached for everyone from Bill Parcells (Dallas Cowboys, 2003-06) to Eric Mangini (New York Jets, 2007) to David Cutcliffe (Ole Miss, 1999-02; Duke, 2008-09), and he has worked on both sides of the ball. In just three years, he built a San Jose State team that ranked in the top 30 in Off. F/+ and in the top 50 in Def. F/+. Last year's SJSU squad ranked much higher than any Colorado team has in the F/+ era (2005-12).

Success at one job in no way guarantees success at another. But considering his resume, considering his clear success in the field of reclamation projects, this was the best hire Colorado could have made. His known skill set perfectly matches Colorado's needs. The Buffs are almost certainly going to still stink in 2013, but MacIntyre could get that program running in the coming seasons. I like this hire as much as I disliked the Embree hire.

Colorado athletic director Mike Bohn recently resigned, in part because of CU's athletic failures under his watch. But on his way out the door, he might have set in motion a fix to his biggest failure.

2012 Schedule & Results

Record: 1-11 \| Adj. Record: 1-11 \| Final F/+ Rk: 124
Date	Opponent	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L
1-Sep	vs. Colorado State	17-22	L	11.8 - 19.4	L
8-Sep	Sacramento State	28-30	L	22.5 - 43.7	L
15-Sep	at Fresno State	14-69	L	19.8 - 46.8	L
22-Sep	at Washington State	35-34	W	33.7 - 31.9	W
29-Sep	UCLA	14-42	L	19.2 - 29.9	L
11-Oct	Arizona State	17-51	L	17.2 - 40.0	L
20-Oct	at USC	6-50	L	19.7 - 52.4	L
27-Oct	at Oregon	14-70	L	17.2 - 39.7	L
3-Nov	Stanford	0-48	L	(-1.3) - 37.8	L
10-Nov	at Arizona	31-56	L	28.4 - 57.2	L
17-Nov	Washington	3-38	L	5.9 - 44.2	L
23-Nov	Utah	35-42	L	25.5 - 39.3	L

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
Points Per Game	17.8	120	46.0	124
Adj. Points Per Game	18.3	122	40.2	123

2. It just kept getting worse

As you'll see below, a combination of injuries and pure lack of talent led to Colorado playing an insane number of youngsters in 2012. When that's the case, the season can go in one of two ways; either you take your lumps early and slowly improve as the season progresses, or you take your lumps early and fall apart. Colorado went with the latter, and it probably got Embree fired.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 4 games): Opponent 35.5, Colorado 22.0 (minus-13.5)
Adj. Points Per Game (next 4 games): Opponent 40.5, Colorado 18.3 (minus-22.2)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 4 games): Opponent 44.6, Colorado 14.6 (minus-30.0)

3. Every job is up for grabs

When a team falls this low, the first thing you expect a new coach to say upon taking over is some variation of "Every job is up for grabs." In fact, I'm not even going to look up whether MacIntyre actually said it -- I will simply assume he did.

But he didn't just say it (maybe); he proved it with his post-spring depth chart (PDF). Returning starting safety Terrel Smith? Second-stringer. Junior reserve safety Jered Bell? Starter. Incoming freshman Addison Gillam? Starting MIKE linebacker. Redshirt freshman guard Alex Kelley? Starter (with Daniel Munyer injured, anyway).

Last year's Colorado team was incredibly young, and will be only marginally more experienced this time around. That might not be a bad thing.

Offense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	119	117	111	117
RUSHING	113	97	108	88
PASSING	99	115	97	121
Standard Downs		110	110	108
Passing Downs		118	93	122
Redzone		110	106	114

Q1 Rk	102	1st Down Rk	118
Q2 Rk	114	2nd Down Rk	81
Q3 Rk	119	3rd Down Rk	116
Q4 Rk	83

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

Comp
Rate

INT

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/
Att.

Jordan Webb

6'1, 215

Sr.

*** (5.6)

144

265

1,434

54.3%

12.5%

4.0

Nick Hirschman

589

59.1%

8.8%

5.1

Connor Wood

6'3, 230

Jr.

**** (5.9)

265

50.0%

4.5%

5.5

John Schrock

6'4, 220

So.

** (5.2)

Shane Dillon

6'5, 200

RSFr.

*** (5.7)

Jordan Gehrke

6'2, 190

Jr.

Sefo Liufau

6'4, 215

Fr.

*** (5.7)

4. Good news! Quarterback play probably won't get worse

Three Colorado quarterbacks combined to average 4.4 yards per pass attempt last year. That is almost indescribably bad. That the Buffs played some good defenses along the way meant they ranked all the way up at 115th in Passing S&P+, but this was an almost unredeemable passing game.

Jordan Webb was an outright statue, the Tino Sunseri of the west, getting sacked once in every eight pass attempts. Meanwhile, Nick Hirschmann got sacked nine percent of the time and threw interceptions on eight percent of his throws. Connor Wood avoided sacks pretty well but threw an interception for every 11.5 passes.

Webb tore up his knee in spring ball, and Hirschmann transferred, but I cannot even begin to pretend that's a problem. Wood finished the spring atop the depth chart, and if a youngster can overtake the Texas transfer, that's all the better.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	TD	Adj. POE
Christian Powell	RB	6'0, 240	So.	*** (5.6)	158	691	4.4	4.4	7	-10.3
Tony Jones	RB	5'7, 190	Jr.	*** (5.7)	63	320	5.1	6.9	3	+0.4
Donta Abron	RB	5'10, 190	So.	** (5.4)	51	241	4.7	5.1	2	-1.1
Josh Ford	RB	5'9, 205	Sr.	NR	27	127	4.7	2.9	1	-0.1
Jordan Webb	QB	6'1, 215	Sr.	*** (5.6)	26	102	3.9	1.8	2	-3.2
Nick Hirschman	QB				16	69	4.3	5.9	0	-0.9
Gerald Thomas	WR	5'11, 175	So.	*** (5.5)	9	56	6.2	7.4	0	+0.4
Connor Wood	QB	6'3, 230	Jr.	**** (5.9)	8	12	1.5	1.8	0	-3.1
Malcolm Creer	RB	5'11, 215	Jr.	*** (5.5)	7	22	3.1	3.0	0	-1.3
Terrence Crowder	RB	5'11, 215	RSFr.	** (5.2)

5. The running game should come around first

Paul Richardson's return to the Colorado receiving corps after multiple injuries can only help. The junior-to-be wooed Colorado fans with a ridiculous, 11-catch, 284-yard performance against California early in 2011, but he caught only 28 passes for 271 yards the rest of the year and missed four games with injury, then injured his knee in spring 2012. His ceiling is lower than what CU fans saw against Cal, but it's still higher than just about anybody else's in the receiving corps.

The only 2012 regular to average better than a less-than-mediocre 6.8 yards per target (tight end Nick Kasa) is gone, leaving behind a smattering of unproven pieces. It's easy to see Richardson and sophomore possession receiver Nelson Spruce forming a nice tandem, but there are a lot of nicer tandems in the Pac-12.

On the other hand, it's not difficult to become a little more optimistic about the running game. Last year's top four running backs all return. Christian Powell was a nice between-the-tackles option, while both Tony Jones and Donta Abron showed solid open-field ability when given the rare opportunity. Meanwhile, the line did a decent job of keeping defenders out of the backfield (and a poor job at most everything else) and returns five players with starting experience (52 career starts). Compared to the passing game, the run has some potential.

Paul Richardson. Doug Pensinger, Getty.

Receiving Corps

Player

Pos.

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Targets

Catches

Yards

Catch Rate

Yds/
Target

Target
Rate

%SD

Real Yds/
Target

RYPR

Nelson Spruce

WR-X

6'2, 200

So.

*** (5.5)

446

60.3%

6.1

20.0%

50.7%

6.0

51.2

Paul Richardson (2011)

WR-Z

6'1, 170

Jr.

**** (5.8)

569

54.1%

7.7

17.6%

62.2%

N/A

Tyler McCulloch

WR-X

6'5, 210

Jr.

** (5.2)

436

53.1%

6.8

17.5%

50.0%

6.9

50.0

Nick Kasa

391

54.3%

8.5

12.6%

54.3%

8.2

44.9

Gerald Thomas

WR-Z

5'11, 175

So.

*** (5.5)

171

39.1%

3.7

12.6%

60.9%

3.7

19.6

Tony Jones

5'7, 190

Jr.

*** (5.7)

146

78.8%

4.4

9.0%

63.6%

4.4

16.8

Vincent Hobbs

6'3, 245

So.

*** (5.6)

152

70.8%

6.3

6.6%

54.2%

6.0

17.4

Kyle Slavin

6'4, 250

Jr.

*** (5.5)

109

77.8%

6.1

4.9%

50.0%

6.0

12.5

Dustin Ebner

116

71.4%

8.3

3.8%

71.4%

7.9

13.3

Donta Abron

5'10, 190

So.

** (5.4)

81.8%

3.2

3.0%

45.5%

2.9

4.0

Alex Wood

6'2, 240

Sr.

103

77.8%

11.4

2.5%

11.1%

11.8

Keenan Canty

WR-Z

5'9, 165

Jr.

** (5.3)

28.6%

2.3

1.9%

71.4%

2.5

1.8

Scott Fernandez

6'3, 245

Sr.

50.0%

35.5

0.5%

0.0%

28.1

8.1

Sean Irwin

6'4, 235

RSFr.

*** (5.5)

Austin Ray

6'6, 250

RSFr.

*** (5.5)

Colin Johnson

6'0, 170

RSFr.

Devin Ross

5'9, 170

Fr.

*** (5.7)

Jeff Thomas

WR-X

6'3, 190

Fr.

*** (5.6)

Bryce Bobo

6'3, 175

Fr.

*** (5.6)

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	93.5	2.84	2.71	33.3%	57.8%	18.9%	69.1	8.4%	11.9%
Rank	98	83	103	113	111	61	107	115	117

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Career Starts/Honors/Notes
David Bakhtiari	LT				34 career starts; 2012 2nd All-Pac 12
Gus Handler	C	6'3, 290	Sr.	** (5.4)	16 career starts
Alexander Lewis	LG				15 career starts
Daniel Munyer	RG	6'2, 295	Jr.	*** (5.5)	15 career starts
Jack Harris	LT	6'6, 295	Sr.	**** (5.8)	13 career starts
Ryan Dannewitz	LT				13 career starts
Stephane Nembot	RT	6'8, 305	So.	*** (5.6)	7 career starts
Brad Cotner	C	6'4, 270	So.	NR	1 career start
Eric Richter	RG
Kaiwi Crabb	LG	6'3, 295	Jr.	*** (5.6)
Jeromy Irwin	LT	6'5, 285	So.	*** (5.6)
Marc Mustoe	RT	6'7, 290	So.	*** (5.7)
Alex Kelley	RG	6'3, 310	RSFr.	*** (5.6)
Vincent Arvia	RG	5'11, 290	RSFr.	NR
Ed Caldwell	RT	6'5, 285	RSFr.	NR
Gerrad Kough	OL	6'5, 295	Fr.	** (5.4)

6. "The offensive line is pretty athletic"

When I spoke to MacIntyre back in February, he was still in the process of getting to know his personnel at hand, and he seemed pretty realistic about the challenges ahead. It is probably worth noting, however, that he showed at least a little bit of optimism about the line:

The offensive line is pretty athletic, there’s a real athletic receiver who didn't play last year [Richardson], and they had some young running backs who did a good job. ... You'd like to settle in on one quarterback at some point; we'll let 'em all compete in the spring and see where that falls.

We’ve got to improve our overall team speed. We feel we’re bringing in some guys from this recruiting class who can help with that.

Defense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	121	118	117	122
RUSHING	118	121	109	122
PASSING	101	115	110	114
Standard Downs		123	116	124
Passing Downs		102	112	98
Redzone		124	123	124

Q1 Rk	117	1st Down Rk	122
Q2 Rk	123	2nd Down Rk	110
Q3 Rk	114	3rd Down Rk	108
Q4 Rk	95

7. Step 1: Get healthy

Of the nine defensive linemen who logged at least 10 tackles, only three played in all 12 games. Of the six linebackers who logged at least 9.5 tackles, only one played in 12 games. Of the nine defensive backs who logged at least 9.5 tackles, only two played in 12 games. The amount of injury-based shuffling Embree and his staff were forced to endure had a predictably serious impact on the quality of play. Instead of bouncing back after an awful defensive finish in 2011 (111th in Def. F/+), the defense crumbled even further.

The positive spin, of course, is that this defense has quite a bit of experience. But that only matters if the health turns around.

Chidera Uzo-Diribe. Jamie Sabau, Getty.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	88.5	3.40	3.79	45.3%	65.8%	18.7%	77.0	3.8%	7.4%
Rank	112	120	112	118	48	74	98	90	50

Name

Pos

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Tackles

% of Team

TFL

Sacks

Int

PBU

Will Pericak

50.0

6.5%

Chidera Uzo-Diribe

6'3, 245

Sr.

*** (5.7)

40.0

5.2%

Josh Tupou

6'3, 310

So.

*** (5.5)

28.5

3.7%

Tyler Henington

6'3, 275

So.

*** (5.6)

19.0

2.5%

Kirk Poston

6'2, 255

Jr.

*** (5.5)

18.0

2.3%

Nate Bonsu

6'1, 290

Sr.

*** (5.6)

17.0

2.2%

Juda Parker

6'3, 265

Jr.

*** (5.7)

16.5

2.1%

Samson Kafovalu

6'3, 250

So.

*** (5.5)

16.5

2.1%

Justin Solis

6'2, 310

So.

*** (5.6)

11.5

1.5%

John Tuso

6'4, 270

So.

Andre Nichols

6'4, 240

Jr.

John Stuart

6'4, 250

RSFr.

** (5.4)

De'Jon Wilson

6'2, 250

RSFr.

*** (5.5)

Kory Rasmussen

6'4, 270

RSFr.

** (5.4)

Derek McCartney

6'3, 230

Fr.

** (5.2)

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Derrick Webb	ILB	6'0, 225	Sr.	*** (5.6)	12	74.5	9.7%	5	1	0	0	0	1
Jon Major	OLB				11	55.5	7.2%	3	1	1	5	2	2
Paul Vigo	OLB	6'1, 205	Sr.	** (5.4)	11	39.0	5.1%	4	0	0	3	1	0
Brady Daigh	ILB	6'2, 250	Jr.	*** (5.6)	10	35.5	4.6%	5	1	0	1	1	0
Doug Rippy	ILB				9	28.0	3.6%	1	0	0	0	1	0
Woodson Greer III	OLB	6'3, 225	Jr.	*** (5.6)	6	9.5	1.2%	2	1	0	0	0	0
Kyle Washington	ILB				7	5.5	0.7%	0	0	0	1	0	0
K.T. Tu'umalo	ILB	6'2, 205	Jr.	*** (5.6)	1	3.5	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Lowell Williams	ILB	6'1, 200	Jr.	*** (5.5)
Clay Norgard	ILB	6'1, 235	RSFr.	*** (5.6)
Jesse Hiss	ILB	6'1, 230	RSFr.	NR
Markeis Reid	OLB	6'4, 220	Fr.	*** (5.5)
Addison Gillam	ILB	6'3, 220	Fr.	** (5.2)
Tim McLaughlin	ILB	6'1, 205	Fr.	NR

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Terrel Smith	SS	5'9, 190	Sr.	** (5.4)	12	59.0	7.7%	0	0	0	3	0	2
Kenneth Crawley	CB	6'1, 170	So.	**** (5.8)	11	52.0	6.7%	3	0	0	5	0	0
Parker Orms	SS	5'11, 195	Sr.	*** (5.5)	10	47.5	6.2%	4	0	0	6	0	1
Marques Mosley	FS	6'0, 180	So.	*** (5.5)	12	41.5	5.4%	2	1	1	1	0	0
Greg Henderson	CB	5'11, 185	Jr.	** (5.4)	10	39.0	5.1%	3	0	0	3	1	0
Ray Polk	FS				7	36.5	4.7%	2	0	0	1	0	0
Yuri Wright	CB	6'2, 170	So.	**** (5.9)	8	18.5	2.4%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Jered Bell	FS	6'1, 195	Jr.	*** (5.7)	8	10.5	1.4%	2	0	1	0	0	1
Jeffrey Hall	CB	5'11, 175	So.	*** (5.5)	6	9.5	1.2%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Harrison Hunter	DB	5'10, 180	Jr.	NR	2	1.0	0.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Josh Moten	CB	6'0, 195	Jr.	*** (5.5)	4	0.0	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0
John Walker	CB	5'9, 165	RSFr.	*** (5.5)
Alexander Stewart	SS	6'0, 160	RSFr.	NR

8. The secondary could be great in 2014 or 2015

Embree's two recruiting classes were not loaded with blue-chippers, but he did land a couple of interesting defensive backs last year in corners Kenneth Crawley and Yuri Wright. They were two of four freshmen who saw playing time last year; two freshman tackles were also heavily in the rotation. Though Colorado couldn't hold onto an interception to save its life, Crawley's work (three tackles for loss, five passes broken up), alongside that of then-sophomore Greg Henderson, is intriguing. Terrel Smith and Parker Orms are seniors, but in 2014, Crawley, Henderson, Wright, Marques Mosley, and current first-string safety Jered Bell are all still going to have eligibility remaining.

Combined with a decent pass rush from a line that features only two seniors among its eight returnees, it's easy to see Colorado's pass defense coming around next season.

Actually, that goes for the defense as a whole. When you fall as far as CU's did in 2012, there are probably no quick routes back to competence. But there are certainly interesting sophomores and juniors at each level of the defense -- tackles Josh Tupou and Tyler Henington, end Kirk Poston, linebacker Brady Daigh, and the aforementioned defensive backs -- who could form the base of a solid unit as soon as next year. Or maybe the year after. But it will probably take at least a little while for defensive coordinator Kent Baer (who followed MacIntyre from San Jose) to get enough pieces on the field to succeed.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Darragh O'Neill	6'2, 185	Jr.	76	43.5	3	23	25	63.2%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%
Justin Castor	6'4, 195	Sr.	17	0	6	35.3%
Zach Grossnickle			21	0	6	28.6%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Will Oliver	5'11, 190	Jr.	28-28	6-7	85.7%	0-1	0.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Marques Mosley	KR	6'0, 180	So.	21	26.1	1
Jeffrey Hall	KR	5'11, 175	So.	6	25.0	0
Donta Abron	KR	5'10, 190	So.	20	19.0	0
Kenneth Crawley	PR	6'1, 170	So.	12	6.8	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	122
Net Punting	22
Net Kickoffs	111
Touchback Pct	83
Field Goal Pct	45
Kick Returns Avg	72
Punt Returns Avg	101

9. Special teams should improve

Granted, punt returns and breakdowns in kick coverage held this unit back quite a bit, but in kick returner Marques Mosley, place-kicker Will Oliver, and especially punter Darragh O'Neill, special teams has some potential stars. San Jose State's special teams unit came around before the offense or defense (16th in Special Teams F/+ in 2011), and we could see the same thing here.

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

2013 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
31-Aug	vs. Colorado State	117
7-Sep	Central Arkansas	NR
14-Sep	Fresno State	60
28-Sep	at Oregon State	25
5-Oct	Oregon	2
12-Oct	at Arizona State	34
26-Oct	Arizona	30
2-Nov	at UCLA	43
9-Nov	at Washington	45
16-Nov	California	68
23-Nov	USC	17
30-Nov	at Utah	52

Five-Year F/+ Rk	106
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	51
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-19 / -16.4
TO Luck/Game	-1.1
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	17 (10, 7)
Yds/Pt Margin**	+6.3

10. San Jose State barely improved in MacIntyre's first year (and he wasn't in the Pac-12)

The good news: Up to five games are potentially winnable this year, maybe six with an upset.

The bad news: Up to 12 are losable.

In Tuesday's Washington State preview, I once again mentioned the concept of Year Zero, in which it takes even a really good coach a while to get pieces in place. I fully expect that in Boulder in 2013. Again, MacIntyre has very much proved his worth early in his head coaching career, and he did at San Jose State exactly what he's being asked to do at Colorado. But it's going to take a while. The passing game is still a mess, and the defense just fell too far in 2012 to pin everything on injuries.

Colorado is proof of what can happen when you make a coaching hire based on short-term buzz and pleasantries. Embree had no coaching experience higher than tight ends coach, and he had never worked with a lot of his assistants, but he was a former Buffalo, as were a lot of the coaches he hired. As I put it in 2011, "The band is getting back together, and that always feels good for a little while." But the reunion tour usually falls apart at some point.

While hiring at your lowest point can often lead to shaky results, CU hit a home run, on paper, with MacIntyre. There are no guarantees, but the Buffs appear to be taking the proper steps toward righting previous wrongs. Now they just have to sit and wait a while.