The big 2014 Hawaii football preview: Rainbow Warriors weren't as bad as you think

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1. Yes, 82nd

SMU was 5-7 and three tight losses from bowl eligibility. Middle Tennessee was 8-5, Louisiana-Lafayette 9-4. San Diego State, Arkansas State, Rutgers, UNLV, and Ohio all went bowling.

All of these teams ranked behind No. 82 Hawaii in last year's final F/+ rankings. Yes, the Hawaii that went 1-11.

My first response to this: That can't possibly be right, this is going to make our numbers look terrible. My second response: Well ... it actually kind of makes some sense.

Hawaii lost to USC by 17 points and held a reasonably decent offense to 4.9 yards per play. The Warriors lost by a semi-respectable 19 points at Oregon State. They lost by five to Fresno State. They lost by two points at UNLV and by seven to Colorado State. They lost by seven to San Diego State and three at Wyoming. In all, they went 1-5 in games decided by a touchdown or less and lost only three games by more than 14 points.

None of this makes Hawaii a good team, obviously, but the Warriors were still quite a bit better than their record would suggest. The offense had its moments in the second half of the season, and the defense was downright decent on average. Play the 2013 season again, and maybe Hawaii rides some luck to 5-7. Hawaii grew quite a bit last season after putting a total dud of a product on the field in 2012. You just couldn't tell it in the win column.

2. So what exactly does that mean?

In some alternate universe, Hawaii has a decent 2013 season. That's great. In this actual world, however, Norm Chow is now 4-20 in two years on the islands and finds himself on the hot seat to a certain degree. Hawaii was unsatisfied with former head coach Greg McMackin, but at least he won 29 games in four seasons. For Chow to reach that, he needs to go 12-2 and 13-1 over the next two years. He's dug himself a hole. He's perhaps made that hole a little larger with some recent issues with the media.

Norm Chow/Photo credit: Rob Carr

There really was growth last year, but as I wrote a few days ago, wins matter:

Wins keep a squad glued together. Players are less likely to transfer, the head coach is more likely to receive further support from administration, etc. And even if you're a little lucky or underwhelming while you're initially winning, wins build infrastructure and beget more wins.

Losses obviously do the opposite. No matter how much Hawaii has grown on paper, every successive loss brings about the possibility of collapse. The Warriors really need a good season and return quite a bit of the talent responsible for last year's growth. Can they get over the hump that teased them for most of last fall?

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 1-11 | Adj. Record: 4-8 | Final F/+ Rk: 82
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
29-Aug	USC	11	13-30	L	9.7 - 25.2	L
7-Sep	at Oregon State	42	14-33	L	15.0 - 26.0	L
21-Sep	at Nevada	88	9-31	L	15.1 - 25.3	L
28-Sep	Fresno State	49	37-42	L	26.6 - 24.7	W
5-Oct	San Jose State	74	27-37	L	20.6 - 22.9	L	-7.4
12-Oct	at UNLV	96	37-39	L	28.8 - 27.7	W	-4.1
26-Oct	Colorado State	66	28-35	L	19.2 - 20.1	L	-2.1
2-Nov	at Utah State	32	10-47	L	26.9 - 34.7	L	-1.6
9-Nov	at Navy	58	28-42	L	32.8 - 30.4	W	-1.5
16-Nov	San Diego State	89	21-28	L	23.2 - 30.1	L	-2.5
23-Nov	at Wyoming	102	56-59	L	33.8 - 40.0	L	-3.9
30-Nov	Army	100	49-42	W	33.1 - 30.1	W	-3.1

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	-8.9%	98	-0.7%	67	+1.0%	47
Points Per Game	27.4	72	38.8	116
Adj. Points Per Game	23.7	100	28.1	69

3. The average Hawaii game changed midway through the season

In the June Jones and McMackin eras, we got used to shootouts. From 2001-07, Hawaii played in 31 games in which both teams scored at least 30 points. The Warriors were a ridiculous 25-6 in such games, as well. Points and yards were the Hawaii m.o., for better or worse, and that continued to at least a small degree when McMackin took over in 2008. Hawaii played in two such games each year from 2008-11. They won the first three but dropped the next five ... which is perhaps part of the reason why McMackin isn't still Hawaii's head coach (other factors didn't help, of course.)

There wasn't a single shootout in 2012, primarily because Hawaii couldn't score. Only twice (once against FBS teams) did the Warriors put more than 27 points on the board. And in the early stages of 2013, the trend continued as Hawaii scored 36 points combined against USC, Oregon State, and Nevada.

But Hawaii games began to look like Hawaii games again as the season progressed.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 3 games): Opponent 25.5, Hawaii 13.3 (minus-12.2)
Adj. Points Per Game (next 4 games): Opponent 23.9, Hawaii 23.8 (minus-0.1)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 5 games): Opponent 33.1, Hawaii 30.0 (minus-3.1)

Hawaii's offense was never great, but it was above average more frequently after the start of the season. The Warriors averaged 5.5 yards per play against San Jose State, 6.2 against UNLV, 5.8 against Navy, 6.8 against Wyoming, and 7.1 against Army. Of course, the defense began to leak as the season went on as well; SJSU averaged 5.9 yards per play, Utah State averaged 6.2, Navy averaged 6.4, SDSU went for 6.8, and Wyoming got 8.1. The yards and points added up on both sides of the ball, and using the "both sides score 30" definition, Hawaii ended up in four shootouts in the last nine games of the year (and each of the last two).

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.13	69	IsoPPP+	98.1	73
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	39.5%	88	Succ. Rt. +	89.9	95
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	30.8	90	Def. FP+	97.4	84
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.9	91	Redzone S&P+	77.7	116
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	32.8		ACTUAL	34	+1.2

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	58	98	96	59
RUSHING	114	101	81	109
PASSING	19	96	104	23
Standard Downs		85	87	55
Passing Downs		112	105	104

Q1 Rk	80	1st Down Rk	75
Q2 Rk	89	2nd Down Rk	103
Q3 Rk	115	3rd Down Rk	115
Q4 Rk	76

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Sean Schroeder				233	376	2960	28	14	62.0%	24	6.0%	7.0
Taylor Graham	6'5, 235	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	46	100	462	2	5	46.0%	12	10.7%	3.5
Jeremy Higgins (2012)	6'1, 200	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	29	48	335	1	1	60.4%	5	9.4%	5.6
Ikaika Woolsey	6'1, 210	So.	2 stars	11	29	143	0	3	37.9%	5	14.7%	3.3

4. One last go-round for Taylor Graham

According to Rivals.com, four-star Illinois quarterback Taylor Graham committed to Jim Tressel and Ohio State on June 23, 2009. He was to be Terrelle Pryor's successor in Columbus. Five years later, his career will end in Honolulu. And it might end with him on the bench. He was beaten out by the younger Braxton Miller and transferred to play for Norm Chow, and he had an absolutely dreadful junior season. You know how Hawaii's offense picked up after the first three games? Graham started the first three games before getting replaced by Sean Schroeder. Schroeder's passer rating last year: 145.2. Graham's: 81.4.

Graham gets one last college try, but after offseason shoulder surgery, he has watched mobile sophomore Ikaika Woolsey take most of the first-string snaps. Graham, Woolsey, and Jeremy Higgins will continue their battle to replace Schroeder throughout the summer. Woolsey was even less efficient with his arm than Graham last year but does bring some running ability to the table.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Joey Iosefa	RB	6'0, 245	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	126	590	5	4.7	3.2	41.3%
Steven Lakalaka	RB	5'10, 240	So.	3 stars (5.7)	113	468	4	4.1	3.2	32.7%
Diocemy Saint Juste	RB	5'8, 180	So.	2 stars (5.4)	50	214	0	4.3	5.9	34.0%
Sean Schroeder	QB				29	97	2	3.3	1.9	44.8%
Ikaika Woolsey	QB	6'1, 210	So.	2 stars	21	103	0	4.9	8.9	23.8%
Aofaga Wily	RB	5'11, 215	So.	2 stars (5.2)	12	23	0	1.9	1.8	8.3%
Marcus Langkilde	RB				9	13	0	1.4	N/A	0.0%
Taylor Graham	QB	6'5, 235	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	9	35	0	3.9	1.8	66.7%
Chris Gant	WR				5	14	1	2.8	1.6	40.0%
D.J. Riggins	RB	5'10, 175	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Chris Gant	WR				97	59	973	60.8%	20.0%	59.3%	10.0	237	9.1	98.0
Scott Harding	WR	5'11, 200	Sr.	NR	88	56	631	63.6%	18.1%	58.1%	7.2	-51	7.1	63.5
Clark Evans	TE				59	40	373	67.8%	12.1%	51.1%	6.3	-99	6.9	37.5
Vasquez Haynes	WR	6'2, 215	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	46	29	354	63.0%	9.5%	45.0%	7.7	-1	8.9	35.6
Billy Ray Stutzmann	WR				45	22	355	48.9%	9.3%	62.5%	7.9	46	7.5	35.7
Marcus Kemp	WR	6'4, 185	So.	2 stars (5.3)	28	11	110	39.3%	5.8%	57.9%	3.9	-66	2.4	11.1
Keith Kirkwood	WR	6'3, 210	So.	2 stars (5.2)	27	12	250	44.4%	5.6%	45.0%	9.3	72	8.8	25.2
Donnie King Jr.	WR	5'7, 155	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	22	11	118	50.0%	4.5%	55.6%	5.4	-35	5.8	11.9
Marcus Langkilde	RB				16	13	85	81.3%	3.3%	93.3%	5.3	-56	9.4	8.6
Steven Lakalaka	RB	5'10, 240	So.	3 stars (5.7)	15	13	93	86.7%	3.1%	55.6%	6.2	-44	5.8	9.4
Harold Moleni	TE	6'2, 245	Jr.	2 stars (4.9)	13	7	71	53.8%	2.7%	53.8%	5.5	-22	5.4	7.1
Samson Anguay	WR	5'7, 170	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	4	3	18	75.0%	0.8%	50.0%	4.5	-16	4.6	1.8
Jordan Pu`u-Robinson	TE	6'4, 255	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	3	2	19	66.7%	0.6%	0.0%	6.3	-5	4.2	1.9
Josh Long	TE	6'4, 240	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)
Quinton Pedroza (Utah)	WR	6'2, 220	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)
Ammon Barker	WR	6'4, 215	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Darrian Josey	WR	6'0, 170	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)
Mack Richards	WR	5'10, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)

5. The "all" in "all or nothing" is gone

Hawaii had five different players with at least one 40-yard catch and nine with at least one 30-yarder. But of the seven players with at least 13 catches last fall, only two averaged better than 12.2 yards per catch (Chris Gant and Billy Ray Stutzmann) and both are gone. The passing game was more explosive than efficient in 2013, but it might have to lean on efficiency unless a new threat steps forward. Keith Kirkwood is an interesting prospect (he averaged 20.8 yards per catch as a freshman, albeit with a 44 percent catch rate), and Utah transfer Quinton Pedroza joins the mix, which could help. But Hawaii will need to stretch the field with its passing game to make room for a reasonably efficient run game, and there are no guarantees of that happening.

The run game does appear to be in pretty good shape, though. Hawaii is pass-first, but with a pretty experienced line blocking for 18th-year senior Joey Iosefa (okay, it just feels like he's been there 18 years) and a thunder-and-lightning duo of sophomores (big Steven Lakalaka and quick Diocemy Saint Juste), the Warriors might want to lean on the run a bit more this fall. It could pay off, especially if Woolsey ends up winning the starting quarterback job.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	95.1	2.85	3.31	35.8%	74.1%	19.0%	67.1	5.6%	11.0%
Rank	88	77	56	100	33	64	113	88	108

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Ben Clarke	C	6'3, 285	Jr.	2 stars	25
Mike Milovale	LT				22
Dave Lefotu	RG	6'3, 305	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	21
Kody Afusia	LG	6'2, 310	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	15
Sean Shigematsu	RG	6'5, 290	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	15
Frank Loyd Jr.	RT	6'3, 285	Sr.	NR	8
Ben Dew	RG				5
David Griffin	RT	6'6, 315	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	2
Leo Koloamatangi	LT	6'5, 275	So.	NR	0
Brenden Urban	C	6'1, 295	Jr.	NR	0
Kory Rasmussen (Colorado)	OL	6'2, 270	So.	2 stars (5.4)
John Wa'a	OL	6'4, 310	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Elijah Tupai	OL	6'4, 265	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)

6. The line should do its part

Hawaii's line was able to clear the way pretty well in short-yardage situations (having huge backs in the backfield didn't hurt) and was at least competent overall in run blocking. Pass blocking, meanwhile, was dependent on the quarterback. With Sean Schroeder behind center, the sack rates were tolerable; with anybody else, things fell apart pretty quickly.

With four line starters returning and six returnees with starting experience (86 career starts), it does appear that Hawaii should expect improvement up front. Hawaii could be starting as many as four seniors, however, so that could be problematic for 2015.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.26	105	IsoPPP+	91.5	106
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	42.8%	68	Succ. Rt. +	103.1	47
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	31.0	49	Off. FP+	102.5	32
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.7	103	Redzone S&P+	101.9	49
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	25.3		ACTUAL	24.0	-1.3

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	117	53	47	93
RUSHING	105	61	56	89
PASSING	118	78	41	98
Standard Downs		34	33	77
Passing Downs		97	100	109

Q1 Rk	63	1st Down Rk	28
Q2 Rk	62	2nd Down Rk	76
Q3 Rk	64	3rd Down Rk	102
Q4 Rk	48

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	108.8	2.88	2.76	39.2%	61.5%	22.5%	119.9	5.8%	6.9%
Rank	33	50	17	65	31	22	29	33	61

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Beau Yap	DE	6'2, 260	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	32.5	4.1%	12.0	5.5	0	1	2	0
Siasau Matagiese	DT				11	30.5	3.9%	6.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Marcus Malepeai	DE	6'1, 275	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	12	29.0	3.7%	2.5	2.0	0	0	0	0
Tavita Woodard	DE				11	28.5	3.6%	5.0	0.5	1	4	0	0
Moses Samia	NT	6'1, 300	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	9	25.5	3.2%	6.5	0.0	0	3	0	0
Iuta Tepa	DE				11	14.5	1.8%	4.0	1.0	0	1	1	0
Calen Friel	DT	6'2, 320	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	8	7.5	1.0%	1.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Kennedy Tulimasealii	DT	6'1, 280	So.	3 stars (5.6)	9	7.5	1.0%	2.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Niko Uti	DE	6'2, 255	Sr.	NR	5	4.5	0.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Craig Cofer	DE				11	2.5	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Luke Shawley	DE	6'2, 250	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)

7. The front four, er, three should hold up

It really was a "tale of two seasons" situation for Hawaii's defense in 2013. For most of the first half of the year, the Warriors' defense was average at worst, but things fell apart late in the season.

For 2013 as a whole, Hawaii graded out pretty well. The Warriors were particularly good when it came to efficient run support. The Warriors sliced into the backfield with regularity against run and pass, and the line was deep with play-makers.

Change is afoot, however. Former Utah State assistant Kevin Clune takes over as defensive coordinator, and he will attempt to implement the 3-4 defense that has been wonderfully effective for Utah State in recent years. Really, anything you can do to imitate what USU has done on defense recently is a good idea; the Aggies have shown spectacular improvement and maintained it after head coach Gary Andersen left for Wisconsin.

Attrition could hurt the defense -- of the top six linemen from last year, three are gone -- but as long as Beau Yap's on the field, Hawaii has at least one star. Yap might take over the new rush end/outside linebacker position within the 3-4 -- he'll be used in quite a few different ways, actually -- and if last season is any indication, he'll do just fine wherever he lines up. And in Moses Samia and Calen Friel, Hawaii has a couple of players big enough to handle the 3-4 nose position (often a problem in the shift to a 3-4), and generally speaking, the shift in alignment fits the personnel pretty well.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Brenden Daley	MIKE				12	72.0	9.1%	13.0	4.0	0	0	3	0
Art Laurel	WILL				12	62.0	7.9%	14.5	3.0	1	4	0	0
Jerrol Garcia-Williams	SAM	6'2, 215	Jr.	NR	12	56.0	7.1%	3.0	1.0	0	1	0	0
TJ Taimatuia	SAM	6'3, 250	Sr.	NR	11	29.5	3.7%	4.0	2.0	0	1	1	0
Tevita Lataimua	MIKE	5'10, 230	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	10	19.0	2.4%	2.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Julian Gener	WILL	5'11, 235	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	3	12.5	1.6%	2.0	1.0	1	0	1	0
Lance Williams	SAM	6'0, 220	Jr.	2 stars	10	12.5	1.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Kamalani Alo	MIKE				12	9.5	1.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Benetton Fonua	LB	6'0, 245	Jr.	2 stars	11	4.5	0.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
George Daily-Lyles	LB				12	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jeremy Castro (UCLA)	LB	6'3, 240	So.	4 stars (5.8)
Simon Poti	LB	6'1, 235	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)
Rashaan Falemalu	LB	6'1, 210	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)
Malachi Mageo	LB	6'3, 190	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)

8. Missing two missiles

Perhaps the biggest shame with Clune's hire is that it didn't come last year, when Brenden Daley and Art Laurel still had eligibility. The duo combined for 27.5 tackles for loss, seven sacks, five break-ups (all from Laurel) and three forced fumbles (all by Daley) and might have teamed with Yap to form one of the best mid-major linebacking corps around.

Alas. Clune still inherits some potentially solid playmakers in Jerrol Garcia-Williams, T.J. Taimatula, Tevita Lataimua, and Lance Williams, and the returnees will be joined by UCLA transfer (and former four-star recruit), Jeremy Castro. And my faith in the Utah State system suggests this front seven will be pretty successful again regardless.

What about the secondary? Hard to say. Hawaii used its defensive backs pretty aggressively a year ago, with four logging at least two tackles for loss and six defensing (picking off or breaking up) at least four passes. But the Warriors also gave up a lot of big pass plays and gave them up with increasing frequency as the season progressed. The cornerback unit is experienced, but two active safeties -- John Hardy-Tuliau and Charles Clay (combined: 13 tackles for loss, 10 break-ups) -- are gone. In all, Hawaii is tasked with replacing perhaps four of its five best players on defense, and one has to figure that will make improvement difficult, even if Clune is a home run of a hire.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
John Hardy-Tuliau	SS				12	66.0	8.4%	7.5	2	0	6	0	1
Ne'Quan Phillips	CB	5'9, 185	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	12	55.0	7.0%	2	0	2	6	1	0
Charles Clay	FS				12	55.0	7.0%	5.5	1	0	4	1	0
Dee Maggitt	CB	5'10, 170	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	12	43.5	5.5%	3.5	0	0	7	0	0
Marrell Jackson	FS	6'0, 185	Jr.	NR	9	30.0	3.8%	2	0	1	3	1	0
Trayvon Henderson	NB	6'0, 190	So.	2 stars (5.4)	11	24.0	3.0%	0	0	3	3	0	1
Kawika Borden	FS	6'1, 200	Sr.	NR	12	15.0	1.9%	0	0	0	0	2	0
Kwamane Bowens	DB				10	7.0	0.9%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Anthony Pierce	CB	5'9, 160	So.	2 stars	10	6.0	0.8%	0.5	0	0	0	0	0
Joshua Donovan	CB	6'0, 190	Jr.	NR	12	4.5	0.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Damien Packer	DB	5'11, 195	So.	NR	9	3.0	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Barry Higdon	DB	6'3, 190	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Keelan Ewaliko	DB	5'11, 175	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)
Keahi Hogan	DB	6'2, 175	Jr.	NR
Cesar Fermin	CB	5'10, 175	Jr.	NR
Jalen Rogers	CB	6'1, 185	So.	2 stars (5.2)
Daniel Lewis	S	5'11, 180	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)
Jerrell Jackson	CB	6'0, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Manly Williams	DB	6'2, 180	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Scott Harding	5'11, 200	Sr.	56	40.2	0	10	18	50.0%
Ruben Guzman	5'8, 190	Sr.	26	40.0	1	8	4	46.2%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Tyler Hadden	5'11, 180	Sr.	64	61.6	26	2	40.6%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Tyler Hadden	5'11, 180	Sr.	36-37	5-8	62.5%	2-5	40.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Chris Gant	KR			19	21.1	0
Diocemy Saint Juste	KR	5'8, 180	So.	14	25.1	0
Scott Harding	PR	5'11, 200	Sr.	21	8.3	0
Donnie King Jr.	PR	5'7, 155	Sr.	3	3.7	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	47
Field Goal Efficiency	113
Punt Return Efficiency	48
Kick Return Efficiency	48
Punt Efficiency	5
Kickoff Efficiency	67
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	122

9. A+ coverage

Hawaii's special teams unit certainly had some issues. Place-kicker Tyler Hadden was far too inaccurate on shorter kicks and the punt return game was decent but not spectacular. But Diocemy Saint Juste emerged as a potentially strong kick returner, and the best offensive weapon on the team may have been punter Scott Harding. Nearly one third of Harding's punts were downed inside the 20, and the coverage unit helped to make Hawaii's punt game one of the best in the country. Field position can swing games, and Hawaii was good at the field position game, at least better than its offense and defense alone would suggest. In Hawaii's case, though, field position was effective at getting Hawaii close ... but it certainly didn't swing games all the way in the Warriors' favor.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
30-Aug	Washington	30
6-Sep	Oregon State	39
13-Sep	Northern Iowa	NR
20-Sep	at Colorado	96
4-Oct	at Rice	88
11-Oct	Wyoming	100
18-Oct	at San Diego State	83
25-Oct	Nevada	62
1-Nov	Utah State	69
8-Nov	at Colorado State	85
15-Nov	at San Jose State	82
22-Nov	UNLV	109
29-Nov	at Fresno State	46

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-11.8% (92)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	103
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-10 / -7.5
TO Luck/Game	-1.0
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	13 (7, 6)

10. So what happens if Hawaii's 82nd again?

I was in no way high on the Norm Chow hire; I almost bored myself with the number of times I mentioned that Chow was an offensive guru who hadn't actually been in charge of a good offense in nearly a decade. I understood the hometown draw, but I wasn't a fan. That said, I'll defend the coaching job he did last year. Hawaii was far more sound and competent in going 1-11 last year than it was in going 3-9 the year before, and if the Warriors can keep it together long enough, they might begin to figure out how to win some close games this year.

If you win or lose enough, you eventually become your record, and for all we know, things might fall apart for the Warriors this year. But if they don't, if Hawaii can replicate last year's mid-80s ranking (far from certain considering the losses on both sides of the ball), there are wins on the schedule. Hawaii plays eight teams projected 80th or worse and get two teams projected in the 60s (Nevada, Utah State) at home. A normal team that ranks 82nd or so could probably win five to seven games against this schedule, and needless to say, that would represent a step up from the four Hawaii has won under Chow so far.

But can the Warriors keep it together after losing 20 of 24? And what happens if they get blown out by Washington and Oregon State? Numbers or no, Hawaii faces the burden of proof to show that last year's numbers were on to something.