The big 2014 SJSU football preview: Spartans have survived one transition, face another

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

1. They survived

Coach builds up football program from ashes. Coach leaves for another job. Program returns to ashes. It happens all the time in college football, and when head coach Mike MacIntyre left San Jose for Colorado a year ago, there had to be at least a little bit of concern that it would happen to SJSU. MacIntyre inherited a program that had gone 2-10 in 2009 and had managed just two winning seasons and one bowl since 1992. But he pulled off a 10-year rebuilding job in just three years; SJSU went 1-12 in Year 1, 5-7 in Year 2, and 11-2 in Year 3, and he was gone.

Instead of latching on to whatever remnants of the MacIntyre it could find -- something that seems to have worked for Utah State in replacing Gary Andersen with his offensive coordinator, Matt Wells -- SJSU took a chance on hiring a bit of an outsider to replace its best coach in a generation. The Spartans hired former University of San Diego coach Ron Caragher; Caragher grew up in San Jose, but his coaching experience came elsewhere: UCLA (1996-2002 under Bob Toledo), Kentucky (2003-06 under Rich Brooks), San Diego (2007-12). Could he maintain MacIntyre's winning ways right out of the gates?

Yes and no. SJSU suffered a drop-off, but between departed players and unsustainable injury luck, that was pretty much unavoidable. Still, the Spartans stayed alive and relevant. They fell to 74th in the F/+ rankings, not 114th. They fell to 6-6, not 2-10.

Despite incredible youth in quite a few units, San Jose State was fun and interesting. It passed its first test in the post-MacIntyre era. Now it faces another stiff test in Year 2: life without star quarterback David Fales.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 6-6 | Adj. Record: 6-6 | Final F/+ Rk: 74
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
29-Aug	Sacramento State	N/A	24-0	W	17.6 - 26.0	L
7-Sep	at Stanford	3	13-34	L	26.5 - 30.6	L
21-Sep	at Minnesota	55	24-43	L	44.0 - 31.0	W
27-Sep	Utah State	32	12-40	L	36.6 - 33.9	W
5-Oct	at Hawaii	82	37-27	W	25.5 - 29.4	L	-0.1
12-Oct	at Colorado State	66	34-27	W	43.5 - 34.4	W	3.4
26-Oct	Wyoming	102	51-44	W	41.4 - 39.8	W	4.5
2-Nov	at UNLV	96	34-24	W	34.8 - 24.9	W	3.9
9-Nov	San Diego State	89	30-34	L	24.5 - 33.1	L	1.6
16-Nov	at Nevada	88	16-38	L	15.3 - 41.0	L	-2.7
22-Nov	Navy	58	52-58	L	36.0 - 38.7	L	-5.1
29-Nov	Fresno State	49	62-52	W	52.2 - 43.8	W	-3.7

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	+9.0%	29	-13.2%	112	-1.9%	99
Points Per Game	32.4	44	35.1	104
Adj. Points Per Game	33.2	32	33.9	107

2. A defensive fade

From last year's SJSU preview:

There almost has to be a drop off here. SJSU was not particularly lucky in terms of Turnovers Luck or Yards Per Point, but the Spartans did benefit from a glaring lack of devastating injuries, which allowed them to pull off their no-depth-whatsoever act with minimal damage. Four defensive linemen made almost all of the line tackles, two linebackers made almost all of the linebacker tackles, and in the secondary, only Damon Ogburn, Jr., missed serious time. Plus, on offense, the same five linemen started every game, and Fales, Eskridge, and most of the receiving corps made it the entire season without missed time.

This probably isn't going to happen again. The defense as a whole still returns quite a few interesting playmakers, but last year's lack of depth could cost the Spartans if new options don't emerge.

Like turnovers luck (which also turned against SJSU last fall), injuries luck isn't guaranteed to turn from year to year. Just because you were particularly lucky or unlucky doesn't automatically mean you'll be the opposite soon.

That said, SJSU's injury situation was basically the exact opposite in 2013 as it was in 2012. Already tasked with breaking in new players to replace stars like running back Shady Eskridge, tight end Ryan Otten, offensive tackle David Quessenberry, and defensive end Travis Johnson, Caragher had to find replacements for other stars on the fly. Leading returning rusher Tyler Ervin played one game. Potential All-American receiver Noel Grigsby played two. Star linebacker Vince Buhagiar missed the entire season. Only three of eight defensive linemen played in all 12 games. Regression to the mean was swift and cruel on the injury front.

Thanks to Fales, receiver Chandler Jones, and an experienced line, SJSU was able to not only hold steady on offense but improve as the year progressed. Despite freshmen littered among the skill positions, SJSU only fell from 26th to 29th in Off. F/+. The defense, on the other hand, sprang some leaks.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 5 games): Opponent 30.2, SJSU 30.0 (minus-0.2) 
Adj. Points Per Game (next 3 games): SJSU 39.9, Opponent 33.0 (plus-6.3)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 4 games): Opponent 39.2, SJSU 32.0 (minus-7.2)

After playing decent ball against some pretty solid offenses early on -- Stanford, Minnesota, and Utah State combined to average 5.6 yards per play, which isn't particularly good or bad -- SJSU struggled to keep up. The Spartans allowed 6.2 yards per play or greater in six of their final seven games, 7.0 or greater in four. Shootouts became the way of life: a 51-44 win over Wyoming, a 58-52 loss to Navy, a 62-52 win over Fresno State. This is entertaining, but it's not a particularly good way to finish better than about 6-6.

Experience will help the defense in 2014, but Caragher brought in a new defensive coordinator as well.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.23	26	IsoPPP+	107.9	28
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	46.6%	25	Succ. Rt. +	106.9	38
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	32.5	107	Def. FP+	96.4	94
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.7	33	Redzone S&P+	101.7	55
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	16.9		ACTUAL	22	+5.1

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	15	30	38	29
RUSHING	98	49	23	83
PASSING	6	28	58	14
Standard Downs		28	24	34
Passing Downs		46	67	11

Q1 Rk	31	1st Down Rk	26
Q2 Rk	16	2nd Down Rk	27
Q3 Rk	61	3rd Down Rk	76
Q4 Rk	56

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2014 Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

TD

INT

Comp Rate

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/ Att.

David Fales

312

487

4189

33

13

64.1%

19

3.8%

8.0

Blake Jurich

6'4, 240

Sr.

2 stars (5.3)

3

6

22

0

1

50.0%

2

25.0%

1.1

Joe Gray

6'2, 202

Jr.

2 stars (5.4)

Malik Watson

6'3, 220

Jr.

NR

Ian Fieber

6'1, 195

Fr.

3 stars (5.5)

3. Replacing Fales

That SJSU got 10 catches from Noel Grigsby and two carries from Tyler Ervin and still played prolific offense in 2013 is staggering. It reflects well on both offensive coordinator Jimmie Dougherty and quarterback David Fales, and SJSU's hoping that the former was responsible for as much as possible.

Fales had other experienced players around him, but he was the guiding light for this offense. A likely draft pick, he completed 64 percent of his passes, cut his sack rate down dramatically while still getting the ball downfield (13.4 yards per completion), and adjusted on the fly to a younger receiving corps than he expected to have.

The battle to replace Fales began this spring, with junior Joe Gray seemingly asserting himself over senior (and 2013 backup) Blake Jurich; Gray completed 17 of 20 passes in the spring game, and if he or Jurich can provide general competence and consistency, his skill-position supporting cast could be ready and able to help him out quite a bit. (The line, on the other hand, is a concern. But we'll get to that.)

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Jarrod Lawson	RB	5'8, 190	So.	NR	164	788	4	4.8	3.0	44.5%
Thomas Tucker	RB	5'10, 175	So.	2 stars (5.3)	66	338	3	5.1	4.5	42.4%
Jason Simpson	RB				64	277	2	4.3	5.2	26.6%
Tim Crawley	WR	5'7, 160	So.	NR	51	219	1	4.3	3.0	41.2%
Tyler Ervin (2012)	RB/WR	5'10, 176	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	45	205	1	4.6	4.3	N/A
David Fales	QB				29	149	2	5.1	2.4	55.2%
Osirius Burke	RB	5'9, 209	So.	NR	7	12	0	1.7	1.3	14.3%
Blake Jurich	QB	6'4, 240	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	6	25	0	4.2	5.8	33.3%
Chandler Jones	WR				5	12	0	2.4	0.9	40.0%
Shane Smith	RB	6'2, 231	So.	NR	4	4	0	1.0	N/A	0.0%
Alvin Jelks	RB	6'1, 190	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)
Brandon Monroe	RB	6'1, 195	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Ray Lomas IV	RB	5'7, 180	RSFr.	NR

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Chandler Jones	WR				112	79	1356	70.5%	23.5%	57.9%	12.1	442	12.9	179.0
Tyler Winston	WR	6'2, 185	So.	2 stars (5.2)	86	58	858	67.4%	18.0%	54.2%	10.0	172	10.0	113.3
Kyle Nunn	WR				64	36	505	56.3%	13.4%	56.9%	7.9	37	7.2	66.7
Billy Freeman	TE	6'3, 235	So.	2 stars (5.4)	47	27	427	57.4%	9.9%	62.5%	9.1	80	9.1	56.4
Tim Crawley	WR	5'7, 160	So.	NR	36	22	197	61.1%	7.5%	73.1%	5.5	-77	4.0	26.0
Jabari Carr	WR	6'0, 190	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	35	25	173	71.4%	7.3%	62.1%	4.9	-115	5.4	22.8
Thomas Tucker	RB	5'10, 175	So.	2 stars (5.3)	27	23	232	85.2%	5.7%	59.3%	8.6	-12	8.5	30.6
Jarrod Lawson	RB	5'8, 190	So.	NR	26	20	223	76.9%	5.5%	68.0%	8.6	1	7.9	29.4
Noel Grigsby	WR				17	10	106	58.8%	3.6%	58.3%	6.2	-21	6.9	14.0
Tyler Ervin (2012)	RB/WR	5'10, 176	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	12	10	126	83.3%	2.6%	58.3%	10.5	N/A	10.6	18.8
Jason Simpson	RB				10	5	20	50.0%	2.1%	50.0%	2.0	-49	2.6	2.6
Shane Smith	RB	6'2, 231	So.	NR	6	5	49	83.3%	1.3%	83.3%	8.2	-5	7.4	6.5
Hansell Wilson	WR	5'9, 172	Jr.	NR	5	3	67	60.0%	1.0%	75.0%	13.4	29	12.6	8.8
Jordan Thiel	TE	6'4, 238	So.	2 stars (5.4)	3	1	17	33.3%	0.6%	100.0%	5.7	-1	9.5	2.2
Daniel Bradbury	WR	6'1, 189	Sr.	NR
K.C. Pearce	WR	6'2, 180	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)
Michael Tate	WR	6'1, 170	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Jourdan Soares	WR	6'0, 167	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)
Justin Holmes	WR	6'2, 215	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

4. Youth becomes experience

From the "injuries hurt in the present tense but help in the future" department, SJSU has already been forced to figure out how to replace Noel Grigsby; it came 10-11 games earlier than anticipated, but Grigsby's injury thrust then-freshman Tyler Winston into the spotlight, and he mostly held his own. A converted defensive back, Winston averaged 10.0 yards per target (despite almost half his targets coming on passing downs) and took full advantage of his unknown status. He caught just one pass for 25 yards in the first four games, then caught 23 for 481 in the next three. He couldn't keep up that level of production -- he'd have been an All-American if he had -- but he rebounded for 10 catches and 164 yards in the shootout against Fresno State.

Winston averaged nearly 15 yards per catch while catching more than two-thirds of the passes thrown to him. That's fantastic for a senior No. 5 receiver, much less a surprise freshman No. 2. And now he'll be asked to replicate those numbers without the help of speedy Chandler Jones, who fared even better in 2013 (17.2 yards per catch, 71 percent catch rate).

Winston's not the only potential star sophomore. Tight end Billy Freeman had his moments, and Tim Crawley was a frequent short target on standard downs. Meanwhile, running backs Jarrod Lawson (a former walk-on) and Thomas Tucker combined for 230 carries and 43 catches last year. Their production was decent on the ground, and they got upfield well on check-down passes. And all of these players have three years of eligibility remaining. That's not a guarantee of success for 2014, but that's exciting for 2015 and beyond.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	105.2	3	3.2	40.6%	69.4%	17.5%	142.1	2.6%	5.4%
Rank	46	57	71	52	63	40	28	15	46

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Nicholas Kaspar	RG				45	2nd All-MWC
Jon Meyer	RT				24
Ryan Jones	LG				23
Reuben Hasani	LG				15
Wes Schweitzer	LT	6'5, 275	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	13
David Peterson	C	6'5, 297	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	10
Evan Sarver	RT	6'5, 281	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0
Keith Bendixen	RG	6'4, 291	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0
Doug Blacksill	C	6'5, 275	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0
Amar Pal	RT				0
Fernando Villanueva	RT	6'7, 298	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0
Oscar Barron	LT	6'4, 270	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0
Kyle Hart	LG	6'3, 275	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0
Michael Talafus	RG	6'3, 269	So.	NR
A.J. Samataua	RG	6'3, 295	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)
Nate Velichko	RT	6'7, 275	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)
Jeremiah Kolone	LG	6'3, 290	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)
Kyle Wright	LT	6'7, 300	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)
Troy Kowalski	OL	6'5, 265	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

5. New quarterback, meet your new line

Fales and Jones found themselves surrounded by freshmen in 2013, but Fales did at least have a sturdy, seasoned line protecting him. The new quarterback, be it Gray, Jurich, or Other (freshman Ian Fieber, perhaps?), won't have that luxury. Line coach Keith Carter does have tackle Wes Schweitzer and David Peterson, both of whom started most or all of 2013, at his disposal, but they're basically the only known quantities. Career backup Keith Bendixen, sophomore Evan Sarver, and redshirt freshman Jeremiah Kolone were listed as starters at the end of spring camp. As with the quarterback position, all the line needs to offer is competence, not necessarily a repeat of last year's top-50 numbers. But that's not a given.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.17	75	IsoPPP+	95.4	91
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	48.2%	110	Succ. Rt. +	85.2	110
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	26.4	115	Off. FP+	95.5	101
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.6	100	Redzone S&P+	81.9	115
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	17.3		ACTUAL	17.0	-0.3

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	104	108	110	101
RUSHING	106	115	116	105
PASSING	86	96	100	89
Standard Downs		106	105	96
Passing Downs		105	115	90

Q1 Rk	113	1st Down Rk	113
Q2 Rk	78	2nd Down Rk	98
Q3 Rk	110	3rd Down Rk	87
Q4 Rk	102

6. A most interesting career

Few defensive coordinators have their own internet meme. This is not a good or bad thing, just a thing. Greg Robinson, the "pwned" of college football, takes over at SJSU's defensive coordinator after an interesting few years.

Actually, Robinson has had an interesting overall career, multiple careers in one. He was UCLA's defensive line coach during one of the Bruins' most successful runs (1982-88), switched to offensive coordinator for one year, then went to the pros. He was the Jets' defensive coordinator for one year (1994), then took over the Broncos' defense (1995-99) and was at the helm for a pair of Super Bowl titles. He moved on to Kansas City for three years, then ran Mack Brown's blue-chip unit for a season (2004), parlaying that success into his first head coaching gig. Though Broncos and Chiefs fans certainly didn't love him by the time he departed those respective jobs, Robinson's career to that point had been quite successful. He had Rose Bowl and Super Bowl rings and some serious clout on the résumé.

Then he went 10-37 at Syracuse.

Then he took over Michigan's defense and oversaw defenses that ranked 46th (2009) and 104th (2010) in Def. F/+.

After a hiatus that included a brief stint as a high school assistant under a former player, Robinson was hired as a consultant for Mack Brown at Texas, then ended up replacing coordinator/scapegoat Manny Diaz a couple of weeks into the 2013 season. He didn't improve things, but he didn't make them worse, either.

At his core, Robinson likes to preach simple, aggressive defense. His back-to-basics approach last year in Texas reaped some early benefits before regression, and he inherits some personnel that appears amenable to an aggressive approach.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	89.5	3.30	3.94	43.8%	81.8%	15.4%	72.6	3.2%	5.6%
Rank	109	104	118	108	121	107	104	102	91

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Isaiah Irving	DE	6'3, 248	So.	NR	11	31.5	4.5%	5.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Travis Raciti	DT	6'5, 290	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	12	29.5	4.2%	4.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Sean Bacon	DE	6'3, 244	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	26.0	3.7%	3.0	3.0	0	1	0	0
Eugene Taylor	DE	6'3, 225	So.	2 stars (5.2)	12	17.0	2.4%	4.0	4.0	0	0	0	0
Foloi Vae	DT	6'3, 286	Sr.	NR	12	15.5	2.2%	3.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Tony Popovich	DE	6'2, 280	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	7	10.5	1.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Anthony Larceval	NT				9	7.5	1.1%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Garrett Guanella	DE	6'5, 235	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	4	6.5	0.9%	0.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Nate Falo	DT	6'1, 286	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	5.5	0.8%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Keenan Sykes	DT	6'3, 250	So.	2 stars (5.2)	4	3.5	0.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Adrian Blake	DE	6'3, 255	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	6	3.0	0.4%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Niko Kittrell	DT				4	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Christian Hill	DE	6'4, 258	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)
Nico Aimonetti	DT	6'5, 257	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Travis Miller	DT	6'4, 295	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)
Vic Vernon	DE	6'3, 275	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Keith Smith	ILB				12	118.5	16.9%	8.0	0.0	1	1	1	0
Christian Tago	OLB	6'1, 226	So.	3 stars (5.6)	11	69.5	9.9%	10.5	4.0	1	0	0	0
Vince Buhagiar (2012)	OLB	6'4, 237	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	13	68.0	9.8%	9.5	3.0	0	1	1	1
Moses Saucedo	MLB	6'0, 229	So.	NR	12	17.5	2.5%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Hector Roach	OLB	6'1, 216	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	6	9.5	1.4%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Ryan Goforth	OLB	6'1, 225	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)
Jared Leaf (Hawaii)	MLB	6'2, 238	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)
Brad Kuh	MLB	6'2, 220	So.	NR
Alex Manigo (San Diego)	OLB	6'0, 225	So.	NR
William Ossai	OLB	6'2, 200	RSFr.	NR

7. Youth becomes experience, Part II

Robinson's hire means that SJSU defenders will be operating under their third coordinator, and third alignment, in three years. Moving from three down linemen to four is awkward, but from a size perspective, this seems about right. And thanks to last year's youth movement, experience appears to be a relative strength. Seniors like Travis Raciti and Vince Buhagiar anchor the front seven, but sophomores like ends Isaiah Irving and Eugene Taylor and linebackers Christian Tago and Moses Saucedo should be ready to make a few more plays than they did a year ago. Throw in transfers like Vic Vernon (JUCO) and Jared Leaf (Hawaii), and you've got a pretty deep front seven.

Of course, depth is good, but it needs to be followed by big-play ability as well. The bar isn't very high after last year, but the least it appears that Tago and Buhagiar could be a lovely combination at OLB.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Forrest Hightower	FS	5'10, 177	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	12	51.5	7.3%	0.5	0	1	3	1	0
Damon Ogburn, Jr.	FS				11	51.5	7.3%	0	0	0	4	0	0
Bené Benwikere	CB				11	46.5	6.6%	2	1	5	11	0	0
Jimmy Pruitt	CB	6'0, 194	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	12	39.0	5.6%	0.5	0	1	3	0	0
Simon Connette	SS	5'11, 193	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	12	38.0	5.4%	2.5	0	1	3	0	0
Dasheon Frierson	CB	5'10, 180	Sr.	NR	12	31.0	4.4%	3	0	1	9	0	0
Akeem King	SS	6'3, 214	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	11	13.0	1.9%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Chris Hill	CB				7	9.5	1.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Esston Al-Uqdah	FS	6'0, 190	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	7	7.5	1.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Dominic Barnes	FS	5'11, 175	So.	NR	9	6.0	0.9%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Sean Linton	CB	6'1, 198	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	6	5.0	0.7%	0	0	1	0	0	0
Ryan Harper	S	6'2, 200	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	4	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Vincenté Miles Jr.	S	6'1, 205	Jr.	NR
Cleveland Wallace III (Washington)	CB	5'11, 175	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)
Miles Milner	CB	5'11, 170	So.	2 stars (5.2)
David Williams	S	6'0, 175	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)
Maurice McKnight	CB	6'0, 175	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

8. Depth vs. star power

In losing linebacker Keith Smith and corner Bené Benwikere, SJSU is tasked with improving without its two biggest stars. But the combination of experience and options could help Robinson pull that off. Five of the top seven tacklers in the secondary return (as do the top six on the line), and they're joined by Washington transfer Cleveland Wallace III and a pair of three-star freshmen (David Williams and Maurice McKnight). Corner Dasheon Frierson showed some play-making potential in his first year as a regular, and it appears there is some decent potential overall.

And again, the bar isn't set very high. If the defense simply improves as much as the offense regresses (and the offense will almost certainly regress at least a little bit), the Spartans will break even.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Harrison Waid			48	43.4	6	9	12	43.8%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Harrison Waid			75	60.1	32	2	42.7%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Austin Lopez	6'0, 187	Jr.	39-40	12-15	80.0%	10-12	83.3%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Tim Crawley	KR	5'7, 160	So.	21	18.6	0
Damon Ogburn, Jr.	KR			15	17.1	0
Tim Crawley	PR	5'7, 160	So.	5	5.4	0
Noel Grigsby	PR			2	8.0	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	99
Field Goal Efficiency	34
Punt Return Efficiency	115
Kick Return Efficiency	105
Punt Efficiency	95
Kickoff Efficiency	55
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	60

9. 10-for-12

Austin Lopez has a damn cannon. San Jose State needs some rather drastic improvement in its return game, and the Spartans need to find a new punter, but Lopez was 10-for-12 on field goals over 40 yards last year and gives SJSU one of the biggest single special teams weapons in the country. The offense doesn't need to get too far down the field to get within scoring range.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
28-Aug	North Dakota	NR
6-Sep	at Auburn	12
20-Sep	at Minnesota	65
27-Sep	Nevada	62
4-Oct	UNLV	109
18-Oct	at Wyoming	100
25-Oct	at Navy	67
1-Nov	Colorado State	85
8-Nov	at Fresno State	46
15-Nov	Hawaii	93
21-Nov	at Utah State	69
29-Nov	at San Diego State	83

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-11.6% (91)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	117
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-5 / 0.4
TO Luck/Game	-2.3
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	12 (4, 8)

10. Now the real work begins

San Jose State in 2013 was quite a bit worse than it was in 2012 and quite a bit better than it has been at any other point in recent history. The offense is going to regress; the question is how much. Meanwhile, if Robinson's aggressive approach resonates with a more experienced defense, one unit could pick up the slack for the other. If SJSU can hang in the 70s range (in terms of F/+ rankings), the Spartans could once again threaten to reach bowl eligibility.

The schedule is not easy -- SJSU travels to Auburn, Minnesota, Navy, Fresno State, and Utah State -- but every home game is winnable, and a team that ranks in the 70s could reach six to seven wins. Whether that's enough for an actual bowl bid remains to be seen, but a 6-6 or 7-5 season would represent a second season of survival. SJSU finished .500 after losing MacIntyre, and doing so again after losing a special talent at quarterback would be impressive, especially considering how many sophomores will be playing a role and, with five three-star recruits entering the fray this fall, how well Caragher recruited this year.

Thrive, survive, then thrive again. SJSU is one more decent year away from completing step two of three.