The big 2014 USF football preview: Taggart's Bulls move on from Year Zero

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

1. Year 1: A complete failure

The offense never came around. The defense had a strange "one bad game for every two good ones" thing going on for much of the year. USF lost by 18 at home to FAU, 25 at Rutgers, 31 at home to Louisville, and, of course, 32 at home to McNeese State. USF fans argued about the definition of "rock bottom." Only brief bouts of competence in two games in October prevented a winless year.

For a program that went to six straight bowls from 2005-10 and had only twice won fewer than five games in a season in its FBS history, the 2013 South Florida season was a disaster in almost every possible way that a season could be a disaster. For head coach Willie Taggart, engineer of a quick, impressive turnaround at Western Kentucky and strong branch on the Harbaugh coaching tree, it's difficult to imagine how Year One could have gone much worse.

Year Zero, on the other hand...

2. Year 0: A rousing success

In a rebuilding project, I often refer to a coach's first year at a program as Year Zero, a season in which quick fixes aren't available and to lay down the foundation he wants, the coach more or less burns the building to the ground. (It's often burned down already.)

By the end of 2013, Taggart had installed a freshman quarterback, handed out starts to three sophomore offensive linemen and a freshman, and given major playing time to two freshmen and a sophomore in the secondary (with two other freshmen in the rotation). And despite the two-win season, when 2013 ended, Taggart went out and landed what was quite easily the best recruiting class in the AAC.

Entering Year One (technically Year Two, yes), USF and Taggart are in an odd situation. Because of experience and regression-to-the-mean odds alone, the Bulls should improve. But at the same time, recruiting has created a situation in which USF is supposed to improve quickly and dramatically. Recruiting successes create impatience when on-field successes don't follow, but how much can USF really expect to improve in one year?

There are plenty of examples of coaches needing a year to get established, then taking off. Taggart himself went 2-10 at WKU before winning 14 games in two seasons. George O'Leary at rival UCF went 0-11 in 2004, then won at least eight games in six of the next nine seasons. Lou Holtz famously went 0-11 at South Carolina in 1999, then won 17 games in 2000-01.

Quick turnarounds exist, and one could happen in Tampa. USF plays only two teams projected in the top 40, so the Bulls wouldn't have to put an elite product on the field to win quite a few games. The schedule cooperates if the talent coalesces. But there are obviously no guarantees, and what happens to recruiting if the Bulls go 2-10 again against a schedule that doesn't feature much elite talent, but does include nine games against teams projected to rank 74th or better?

It's going to be an interesting year at USF. The array of potential outcomes is enormous.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 2-10 | Adj. Record: 2-10 | Final F/+ Rk: 99
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
31-Aug	McNeese State	N/A	21-53	L	18.9 - 47.8	L
7-Sep	at Michigan State	6	6-21	L	7.3 - 19.8	L
14-Sep	Florida Atlantic	73	10-28	L	22.1 - 18.5	W
28-Sep	Miami	36	21-49	L	17.6 - 34.3	L
5-Oct	Cincinnati	64	26-20	W	20.5 - 21.2	L	-11.1
12-Oct	at Connecticut	93	13-10	W	9.8 - 25.8	L	-8.5
26-Oct	Louisville	12	3-34	L	17.0 - 29.1	L	-8.4
31-Oct	at Houston	46	23-35	L	21.0 - 38.6	L	-12.7
16-Nov	Memphis	83	10-23	L	30.1 - 29.4	W	-9.2
23-Nov	SMU	84	6-16	L	16.0 - 18.8	L	-9.6
29-Nov	at Central Florida	21	20-23	L	17.6 - 21.7	L	-7.2
7-Dec	at Rutgers	91	6-31	L	5.1 - 37.2	L	-11.2

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	-20.5%	123	+1.6%	56	+1.6%	35
Points Per Game	13.8	122	28.6	74
Adj. Points Per Game	16.9	123	28.5	72

3. From start to finish

But seriously, USF was really bad last year. And whereas some young teams in transition start to figure things out after a rough start, there was no hot start or finish at USF in 2013; the Bulls were basically the same from start to finish.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 4 games): Opponent 30.1, USF 16.5 (minus-13.6)
Adj. Points Per Game (next 4 games): Opponent 28.7, USF 17.1 (minus-10.6)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 4 games): Opponent 26.8, USF 17.2 (minus-9.6)

I mean, you can find improvement there if you squint hard enough, but not really. The offense only twice averaged even 5.0 yards per play, and while the defense wasn't in any way the problem (and did improve slightly), USF still allowed at least 6.3 yards per play four times and at least 5.0 seven times. USF just never had a chance in 2013. But hey, two wins is better than zero ...

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.11	79	IsoPPP+	100.6	57
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	28.8%	125	Succ. Rt. +	76.5	123
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	34.4	124	Def. FP+	94.4	111
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	2.6	123	Redzone S&P+	74.0	119
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	23.2		ACTUAL	28	+4.8

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	123	117	124	122
RUSHING	120	111	121	110
PASSING	110	118	119	116
Standard Downs		118	125	59
Passing Downs		107	113	77

Q1 Rk	120	1st Down Rk	117
Q2 Rk	116	2nd Down Rk	117
Q3 Rk	98	3rd Down Rk	110
Q4 Rk	113

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Mike White	6'4, 186	So.	3 stars (5.5)	93	175	1083	3	9	53.1%	10	5.4%	5.5
Bobby Eveld				38	96	455	2	2	39.6%	11	10.3%	3.6
Steven Bench	6'2, 208	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	26	64	392	2	3	40.6%	8	11.1%	4.6
Quinton Flowers	6'0, 210	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

4. Let's just pretend last year didn't happen and just take stock

These previews feature all sorts of statistics, offensive and defensive (and special teams!), from the previous season. For USF's sake, let's ignore most of the offensive numbers. They're not pretty. USF was able to rip off occasional big plays, but any positive effect was negated by a mountain of three-and-outs and negative plays.

(Be honest: You ignore most of the numbers anyway.)

So let's take stock. USF got three-star quarterback Mike White quite a bit of playing time in 2013; he overtook ineffective Bobby Eveld and beat out Penn State transfer Steven Bench, and while his completions didn't really go very far (11.6 yards per completion, which isn't awful if your completion rate is about 65 percent), he was the only USF quarterback who managed to complete even 50 percent of his passes or keep his sack rate under 10 percent. He had a massive interceptions problem, but he was probably still the shiniest turd of the bunch.

White was also a freshman and almost helped to engineer an upset of UCF. (The Bulls led, 20-16, with under five minutes remaining before a UCF score and a White interception finished them off.) So despite the stat line, we'll put him on the assets list. Then again, he might not even be the starter this year. Bench had a hell of a spring.

OK, so what other assets might offensive coordinator Paul Wulff have to work with in 2014? We'll talk about star wideout Andre Davis in a moment, but he's great. Sophomore running back Darius Tice showed some potential explosiveness last year. Tight end Mike McFarland averaged almost 8.0 yards per target, and there are all sorts of other interesting tight ends on the roster (which certainly fits the grind-it-out offense Taggart was successful with at WKU). The line returns seven players with starting experience, including three-year starting tackle Quinterrius Eatmon and two-year starting center Austin Reiter. And they could start guards named Brynjar and Thor (with players named Max, Mak, and Kofi coming off the bench), which is fun.

And there are all sorts of three- and four-star freshmen and redshirt freshmen who could impact the rotation.

In a vacuum, that's quite a hefty list of assets. Now they have to actually be assets.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Marcus Shaw	RB				156	765	3	4.9	7.6	29.5%
Michael Pierre	RB	5'10, 202	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	41	114	0	2.8	3.2	19.5%
Willie Davis	RB				39	139	0	3.6	2.8	25.6%
Darius Tice	RB	5'10, 198	So.	2 stars (5.4)	35	141	0	4.0	5.3	28.6%
Bobby Eveld	QB				18	49	0	2.7	3.4	33.3%
Steven Bench	QB	6'2, 208	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	15	44	0	2.9	1.9	20.0%
Chris Dunkley	WR	6'0, 180	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	5	53	1	10.6	8.8	60.0%
Mike White	QB	6'4, 186	So.	3 stars (5.5)	4	20	0	5.0	8.5	25.0%
Kennard Swanson	FB	6'0, 245	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Sta'fon McCray	RB	5'11, 212	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
D'Ernest Johnson	RB	5'10, 180	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)
Marlon Mack	RB	6'0, 195	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Andre Davis	WR-X	6'1, 202	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	109	49	735	45.0%	33.5%	47.7%	6.7	12	6.6	86.4
Mike McFarland	TE	6'5, 244	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	37	23	288	62.2%	11.4%	48.5%	7.8	4	8.0	33.9
Sean Price	TE	6'3, 249	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	27	21	185	77.8%	8.3%	45.5%	6.9	-47	6.5	21.7
Deonte Welch	WR-Z	6'0, 206	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	25	8	123	32.0%	7.7%	35.3%	4.9	-23	6.8	14.5
Derrick Hopkins	WR				23	10	82	43.5%	7.1%	43.8%	3.6	-68	3.0	9.6
Chris Dunkley	WR-Z	6'0, 180	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	22	7	87	31.8%	6.8%	55.0%	4.0	-42	3.3	10.2
Marcus Shaw	RB				20	14	115	70.0%	6.2%	45.0%	5.8	-48	5.6	13.5
Willie Davis	RB				15	7	51	46.7%	4.6%	50.0%	3.4	-50	3.1	6.0
Stephen Bravo-Brown	WR				14	7	121	50.0%	4.3%	22.2%	8.6	24	2.1	14.2
Ruben Gonzalez	WR	6'3, 199	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	11	5	71	45.5%	3.4%	0.0%	6.5	-2	3.9	8.3
Ryan Eppes	FB				11	8	76	72.7%	3.4%	54.5%	6.9	-15	6.9	8.9
Rodney Adams	WR	6'1, 180	So.	3 stars (5.7)
Alex Mut	WR	6'3, 190	So.	3 stars (5.6)
Guito Ervilus	TE	6'4, 221	So.	3 stars (5.6)
Zach Benjamin	WR	6'4, 194	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Marlon Pope	TE	6'4, 265	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)
Ryeshene Bronson	WR	6'3, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)
Tyre McCants	WR	5'11, 200	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)

5. Degree of difficulty

Andre Davis isn't a particularly efficient receiver. On a better (but not great) offense in 2012, he still only managed a 54-percent catch rate. But in 2013, he was officially one of two big-play threats for the feckless USF offense.

Marcus Shaw was an explosive, unfortunate running back last season -- if he saw the open field, he did damage, but he seemingly went weeks without seeing the open field -- and of the five USF players to catch 10 or more passes, only Davis averaged better than 12.5 yards per catch. (McFarland averaged 12.5, and the other three averaged 8.5.) He had 134 of USF's 311 receiving yards against Houston, 110 of 198 (!) against Memphis, 113 of 217 against SMU, and 87 of 211 against UCF. If he can get any help whatsoever from fellow wideouts, he could put up some fantastic, if still inefficient, numbers. USF has a wealth of tight ends who might play a productive role, but someone else will be needed to stretch the defense out, especially in Shaw's absence.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	88.9	2.37	2.04	27.3%	57.9%	22.3%	77.9	9.0%	6.6%
Rank	106	122	125	126	110	110	97	119	60

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Quinterrius Eatmon	RT	6'6, 311	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	35
Austin Reiter	C	6'3, 273	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	24
Darrell Williams	LT	6'5, 287	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	17
Brynjar Gudmundsson	LG	6'4, 305	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	13
Dominique Threatt	RG	6'1, 310	So.	3 stars (5.6)	6
Thor Jozwiak	RG	6'4, 300	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	5
Steven Jacques	RG				4
Lawrence Martin	RG				3
Max Lang	LT	6'5, 274	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	1
Jake Kaufman	LT	6'9, 313	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0
Steven Jacques	LG				0
Kofi Amichia	C	6'4, 265	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0
Mak Djulbegovic	RT	6'5, 289	Jr.	NR	0
Kameron Davis	OL	6'5, 258	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0
Jeremi Hall	OL	6'5, 340	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
Cameron Ruff	OL	6'3, 307	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.10	46	IsoPPP+	107.2	32
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	43.4%	78	Succ. Rt. +	95.6	74
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	26.5	114	Off. FP+	97.5	88
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.9	42	Redzone S&P+	82.2	113
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	19.3		ACTUAL	25.0	+5.7

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	21	52	74	45
RUSHING	28	68	84	94
PASSING	26	52	61	11
Standard Downs		81	84	65
Passing Downs		24	40	6

Q1 Rk	66	1st Down Rk	87
Q2 Rk	102	2nd Down Rk	44
Q3 Rk	25	3rd Down Rk	40
Q4 Rk	37

6. A waste of a decent defense

There were some glitches along the way, and there were occasional issues on standard downs, but USF's defense deserved a better fate in 2013. Powered by a very good line, USF ranked a solid 56th in Def. F+.

It's hard to know what to expect from the D in 2014, however. The line was decimated by attrition, longtime linebacker stalwart DeDe Lattimore is gone, and half of the two deep has been skimmed off in the secondary. The offense will improve, simply from an "It can't get worse" perspective, but that could simply offset regression on the other side of the ball. Defensive coordinator Chuck Bresnahan is shifting to more of a 3-4 alignment in 2014, and lord knows he has a wealth of young, three- and four-star options to fill holes. But while youth in 2014 could mean great things for 2015 and beyond, it might not be that great for 2014.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	111.8	2.50	2.65	41.2%	57.6%	28.6%	99	4.6%	7.5%
Rank	26	12	15	85	15	2	62	56	51

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Tevin Mims	DE				10	30.0	4.9%	6.0	1.5	0	0	0	0
Elkino Watson	DT	6'2, 286	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	11	23.0	3.7%	9.0	1.5	0	0	0	0
Aaron Lynch	DE				12	23.0	3.7%	11.5	5.0	0	1	0	1
Ryne Giddins	DE				12	20.5	3.3%	10.0	4.0	0	0	2	0
Luke Sager	DT				12	20.0	3.3%	11.5	3.0	0	0	0	0
Todd Chandler	DT	6'0, 317	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	12	19.5	3.2%	5.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Julius Forte	DE				11	14.0	2.3%	4.0	3.0	1	1	2	0
James Hamilton	DT	6'2, 308	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	12	14.0	2.3%	5.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Derrick Calloway	DT	6'2, 328	So.	4 stars (5.8)	6	3.0	0.5%	2.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Eric Lee	DE	6'3, 257	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)
Deadrin Senat	DT	6'1, 318	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
Mike Love	DE	6'4, 242	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Demetrius Hill	DE	6'3, 255	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)
Rohan Blackwood	DE	6'5, 220	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)
Eric Mayes	DE	6'5, 240	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

7. Lose a bunch of linemen? Play fewer linemen!

One way to offset losses in the front four is to make it a front three. With ends Tevin Mims, Aaron Lynch, Ryne Giddins, and Julius Forte (combined: 31.5 tackles for loss, 13.5 sacks) all gone, along with play-making tackle Luke Sager, Bresnahan will be looking to supplement tackle Elkino Watson with some newbies. Most of the promising players up front are over 300 pounds (in some cases, well over 300 pounds), so the Bulls should have the size requisite for an effective 3-4. We'll see if there's actual play-making ability to go with the girth.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
DeDe Lattimore	MIKE				12	78.5	12.8%	5.5	2.0	1	3	4	1
Reshard Cliett	SAM	6'2, 220	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	11	46.0	7.5%	7.0	1.0	0	3	0	0
Nigel Harris	WILL	6'0, 190	So.	3 stars (5.6)	12	26.5	4.3%	2.5	0.0	0	1	1	0
Hans Louis	MIKE	6'0, 215	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	11	16.5	2.7%	1.0	1.0	0	0	1	0
Rahmon Swain	WILL	6'0, 208	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	12	6.0	1.0%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Zack Bullock	SAM	6'3, 213	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	11	5.0	0.8%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Tashon Whitehurst	SAM	6'3, 198	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	10	4.5	0.7%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Rahmon Swain	LB	6'0, 208	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)
Corian Hamilton	LB	6'0, 232	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)
Auggie Sanchez	LB	6'2, 233	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Jimmy Bayes	LB	6'3, 185	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)
Vincent Jackson	LB	6'2, 235	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)
Nick Holman	LB	6'2, 230	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)
LaGrande Harley	LB	6'1, 230	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)
Josh Black	LB	6'2, 225	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Mark Joyce	CS				10	41.5	6.8%	3.5	0	2	2	1	0
Nate Godwin	OS	5'10, 196	So.	3 stars (5.6)	12	37.0	6.0%	1	0	1	3	0	0
Brandon Salinas	CB				12	31.5	5.1%	1	0	0	3	0	0
Kenneth Durden	CB	6'0, 173	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	27.0	4.4%	0	0	1	1	1	1
Fidel Montgomery	OS				12	26.0	4.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Johnny Ward	CB	6'0, 163	So.	2 stars (5.3)	12	24.5	4.0%	2	0	1	5	1	0
JaQuez Jenkins	OS				7	21.0	3.4%	2	0	0	1	0	0
Hassan Childs	CS	6'0, 169	So.	3 stars (5.5)	6	9.0	1.5%	0	0	3	0	0	0
Torrel Saffold	CS	5'11, 163	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	11	9.0	1.5%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Lamar Robbins	CB	6'2, 181	So.	4 stars (5.8)	11	8.5	1.4%	0	0	1	1	0	0
Trevon Griffin	DB	6'0, 202	Sr.	NR	12	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jalen Spencer	DB	6'0, 178	So.	3 stars (5.6)	1	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jamie Byrd	DB	5'11, 190	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)
Kendall Sawyer	CB	6'1, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)
Tajee Fullwood	CB	6'2, 175	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)
Deatrick Nichols	CB	5'10, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)
Devin Abraham	CB	5'9, 175	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)
Mazzi Wilkins	CB	6'0, 160	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

8. Options

Without Lattimore and safety Mark Joyce, USF is tasked with replacing its steadiest, most interesting back-seven players. But Bresnahan has options upon options. Senior linebacker Reshard Cliett appears to be a keeper, and sophomore defensive backs Nate Godwin, Johnny Ward, Hassan Childs, and Lamar Robbins combined for six interceptions and nine break-ups last year. Redshirt freshman Auggie Sanchez had a breakout spring, and a whopping 10 members of the 2014 recruiting class were three- or four-star linebackers and defensive backs.

Again, there might be too many losses here to avoid regression in 2014, but there's no question that there's potential for excitement here in the future.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Mattias Ciabatti	6'0, 184	Jr.	73	40.2	7	20	20	54.8%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Marvin Kloss	6'0, 198	Sr.	43	61.8	15	1	34.9%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Marvin Kloss	6'0, 198	Sr.	15-15	7-7	100.0%	11-16	68.8%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Chris Dunkley	KR	6'0, 180	Sr.	18	22.6	0
Derrick Hopkins	KR			14	21.3	0
Kenneth Durden	PR	6'0, 173	Jr.	9	7.1	0
Chris Dunkley	PR	6'0, 180	Sr.	4	24.3	1

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	35
Field Goal Efficiency	5
Punt Return Efficiency	40
Kick Return Efficiency	94
Punt Efficiency	23
Kickoff Efficiency	99
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	2

9. Hail Kloss

When you're starved for points, the value of your kicker gets magnified. You need points whenever you can possibly get them, and Kloss made 11 of 16 field goals of 40 or more yards. No college kicker should be relied on to this degree, but Kloss passed most tests and didn't miss a kick (or PAT) under 40 yards all season. Hopefully he's kicking more PATs and fewer 51-yarders in 2014.

In all, like the defense, the special teams unit deserved better. Kick coverage was a bit of an issue, but there weren't enough kickoffs for that to be costly. Mattias Ciabatti is a good punter, and Chris Dunkley has solid return potential, especially on punts. If the offense cuts downs on three-and-outs, USF should be a pretty good field position team.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
30-Aug	Western Carolina	NR
6-Sep	Maryland	56
13-Sep	N.C. State	68
19-Sep	Connecticut	86
27-Sep	at Wisconsin	19
11-Oct	East Carolina	72
18-Oct	at Tulsa	64
24-Oct	at Cincinnati	54
1-Nov	Houston	41
15-Nov	at SMU	74
22-Nov	at Memphis	95
28-Nov	Central Florida	24

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-1.4% (62)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	46
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-3 / -4.0
TO Luck/Game	+0.4
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	15 (9, 6)

10. How quickly can this turn around?

USF really is a mystery in 2014. One can see how the offense might show strong second-year improvement, and while the defense is far less experienced, it has a ton of potential and will have even more in the future.

Still ... USF ranked 99th overall in the F/+ rankings last year. Massive improvement is on the table, but modest improvement is always more likely. What happens if USF climbs back up into the 70s? It all depends on the start. USF's schedule is odd, with the first four games all at home (three against ACC/AAC teams), followed by five of seven on the road. USF was worse than Maryland (by quite a bit), NC State and UConn (by a little) in 2013, but all three of those games are winnable. Start 4-0, and the Bulls should have enough opportunities to find wins five and six. Start 2-2, and you're almost certainly looking at a fourth straight year without a bowl.

Recruiting is about the future, and at the moment it's pretty easy to see a bright future for Willie Taggart at USF. But he won't get too many free-pass recruiting classes; the wins will have to follow within the next couple of years, or things get dimmer in a hurry.