The big 2014 UNLV football preview: Rebels are exciting, uncertain in Hauck's fifth year

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1. Approaching the peak

If you win enough, you might become your record. That is one of the most stat-unfriendly things you'll ever see me write, but we've seen it before, and we'll see it again. In 2011, Kansas State went 10-3 and reached the Cotton Bowl with a team that ranked just 29th in the F/+ rankings, six spots ahead of 5-7 South Florida; the Wildcats won eight games by a touchdown or less, winning games with minimal margin for error and plenty of turnovers luck. The next season, they returned a healthy level of talent and experience and improved both to 11 wins and a No. 9 ranking.

In 2012, Rice went 7-6 with a No. 87 ranking, scraping by with narrow wins over two teams with a combined 3-21 record (the Owls beat 1-11 Kansas by one and 2-10 Tulane by two). But they found a new level late in the year and won five in a row, and with a wealth of experience returning, they went 10-4, won Conference USA, and improved to 69th in 2013.

Wins keep a squad glued together. Players are less likely to transfer, the head coach is more likely to receive further support from administration, etc. And even if you're a little lucky or underwhelming while you're initially winning, wins build infrastructure and beget more wins.

This is what UNLV hopes, anyway. The Rebels broke through to an extent in 2013. They won seven games and went bowling for the first time since 2000; they improved by five wins over 2012's 2-11 squad. On paper, however, they barely progressed, from 103rd to just 96th. The 2012 team was unlucky, finishing just 1-5 in one-possession games. The 2013 squad, however, went 2-1 in such games and, like Rice, showed demonstrable improvement late in the year. After taking down weak opponents early, they began to look the part of a true bowl team late. And in 2014, they return an intriguing quarterback, an explosive running back, one of the best mid-major receivers in the country, every offensive lineman, and one of the nation's most experienced secondaries. Whatever Bobby Hauck is capable of building in Las Vegas, we'll get some strong glimpses of it this fall.

Of course, there are some red flags. UNLV's late-season hot streak wasn't as long as Rice's. If you get hot for your last four to six games and return the reasons for the hotness, that could be a clear sign of a breakthrough. But UNLV's hot streak was basically three games, and the Rebels didn't look very good in their bowl game, for what that's worth.

Plus, more importantly, there are some classroom issues threatening to get in the way. Despite the fact that this will probably be Bobby Hauck's best team in Vegas, there's a chance that UNLV's APR score will fall low enough to prompt a bowl ban. Hauck has used grayshirts and transfers and every tool at his disposal to build a level of depth UNLV almost never has, and some of the tactics, along with an absolutely miserable APR score from the 2011-12 academic year, could backfire a bit. That year's score was so low that UNLV would have to post its highest score in memory for 2012-13 to stay above the cut line.

The yearlong delay between performance and potential punishment is awkward and could land UNLV in postseason jail for performance from two to three years ago. It would be a shame for this Rebel squad to meet its potential and stay home anyway, but that's the situation at hand. Regardless, a UNLV team that meets its potential could be wonderfully entertaining for 12 games anyway, even if there isn't a 13th. One does have to wonder about motivation, however.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 7-6 | Adj. Record: 4-9 | Final F/+ Rk: 96
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
29-Aug	at Minnesota	55	23-51	L	23.7 - 31.3	L
7-Sep	Arizona	25	13-58	L	16.0 - 25.0	L
14-Sep	Central Michigan	111	31-21	W	27.5 - 26.0	W
21-Sep	Western Illinois	N/A	38-7	W	22.6 - 29.9	L
28-Sep	at New Mexico	110	56-42	W	29.6 - 39.2	L	-6.4
12-Oct	Hawaii	82	39-37	W	25.9 - 33.4	L	-6.4
19-Oct	at Fresno State	49	14-38	L	21.0 - 32.6	L	-6.9
26-Oct	at Nevada	88	27-22	W	22.6 - 28.8	L	-8.4
2-Nov	San Jose State	74	24-34	L	19.7 - 30.3	L	-9.1
9-Nov	Utah State	32	24-28	L	38.7 - 33.0	W	-6.0
21-Nov	at Air Force	113	41-21	W	30.7 - 22.3	W	-2.8
30-Nov	San Diego State	89	45-19	W	41.3 - 19.0	W	4.0
1-Jan	vs. North Texas	51	14-36	L	22.0 - 30.1	L	3.6

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	-5.7%	84	-5.3%	87	-4.3%	118
Points Per Game	29.9	57	31.8	94
Adj. Points Per Game	26.3	81	29.3	79

2. They closed

UNLV is hoping that it gets its own close-game hot streak because 2012 was pretty cold. The Rebels went 1-5 in one-possession games, thanks in part to a minus-3.4 point margin (per game) in turnover luck. They turned 60 passes defensed into just nine interceptions, and it cost them. Three tight losses to start the season put the Rebels in a whole out of which they could not dig. One extra bounce per game in their favor, and they might have started 4-0.

Regardless of the turnovers, UNLV's inability to close games pointed at a lack of depth we will explore below. The defense went from mediocre to bad throughout the course of each half, and the offense was demonstrably worse in the second half of games. That simply has to change if Hauck is ever going to break through.

I focused a good portion of last year's UNLV preview on the Rebels' depth and close-game issues. Again, the overall product didn't turn around that much in 2013, but while the offense continued to falter in the second half, the defense stiffened dramatically. In per-quarter S&P+ rankings, the UNLV D ranked 101st in the first quarter, 109th in the second, 56th in the third and 39th in fourth. The Rebels eventually figured out some answers on that side of the ball, and improvement in depth was one cause of that.

And though it was just a three-game stretch, UNLV really did look great at the end of the regular season.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 9 games): Opponent 30.7, UNLV 23.2 (minus-7.5)
Adj. Points Per Game (next 3 games): UNLV 36.9, Opponent 24.8 (plus-12.1)

We'll see how much of that is sustainable.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.10	85	IsoPPP+	93.7	93
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	44.9%	46	Succ. Rt. +	96.1	76
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	30.1	75	Def. FP+	97.4	84
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.5	46	Redzone S&P+	99.1	67
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	16.6		ACTUAL	15	-1.6

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	61	88	77	81
RUSHING	61	94	92	81
PASSING	59	78	52	59
Standard Downs		82	80	92
Passing Downs		88	68	90

Q1 Rk	99	1st Down Rk	80
Q2 Rk	48	2nd Down Rk	88
Q3 Rk	95	3rd Down Rk	108
Q4 Rk	110

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Caleb Herring				256	405	2718	24	5	63.2%	24	5.6%	5.9
Nick Sherry	6'5, 235	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	41	75	337	3	5	54.7%	2	2.6%	4.2
Jared Lebowitz	6'4, 195	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)
Blake Decker	6'2, 205	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)

3. Another go-round for Nick Sherry (maybe)

Nick Sherry looks the part. He's a tall, strong-armed, pro-style quarterback with iffy mobility, and he at least held his own in 2012 as a freshman. He appeared to be UNLV's quarterback of the future, but "the future" wasn't 2013. After an incredibly awful performance against Arizona — 6-for-22 (!) for 111 yards, a touchdown, and two interceptions — he was benched in favor of QB-turned-WR-turned-QB Caleb Herring. Herring wasn't an incredible passer, but he threw as many interceptions in 405 passes (five) as Sherry threw in 75, his completion rate was 63 percent, and he provided a decent run threat.

Herring was a senior, however. Sherry gets another shot at the top gig in 2014, but he'll have to hold off Blake Decker, a former BYU walk-on who threw for more than 4,000 yards and almost 50 touchdowns at Scottsdale Community College last fall.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Tim Cornett	RB				264	1284	15	4.9	5.0	34.1%
Caleb Herring	QB				103	523	5	5.1	3.6	45.6%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence	RB	5'8, 180	Sr.	NR	47	418	2	8.9	22.9	27.7%
Adonis Smith	RB	5'11, 200	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	28	70	2	2.5	2.8	17.9%
Nick Sherry	QB	6'5, 235	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	26	0	2.2	2.8	25.0%
Keith Whitely	RB	5'9, 185	So.	2 stars (5.4)	10	56	0	5.6	2.5	60.0%
Marcus Sullivan	WR	5'9, 195	Sr.	NR	6	81	1	13.5	23.1	50.0%
Henri Jussila	RB	5'9, 180	RSFr.	NR

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Devante Davis	WR	6'3, 210	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	146	87	1307	59.6%	31.8%	61.4%	9.0	211	10.1	140.8
Marcus Sullivan	WR	5'9, 195	Sr.	NR	67	45	505	67.2%	14.6%	54.1%	7.5	-29	7.1	54.4
Maika Mataele	WR				52	36	411	69.2%	11.3%	62.0%	7.9	-10	7.9	44.3
Tim Cornett	RB				36	30	147	83.3%	7.8%	54.3%	4.1	-175	4.2	15.8
Anthony Williams	WR	5'11, 190	Jr.	2 stars	35	21	188	60.0%	7.6%	61.3%	5.4	-76	5.1	20.2
Taylor Barnhill	FB	6'4, 240	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	33	21	131	63.6%	7.2%	78.6%	4.0	-125	4.4	14.1
Jake Phillips	TE	6'6, 255	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	30	19	143	63.3%	6.5%	64.0%	4.8	-89	5.1	15.4
Jerry Rice Jr.	WR				14	11	86	78.6%	3.1%	36.4%	6.1	-35	5.8	9.3
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence	RB	5'8, 180	Sr.	NR	13	11	66	84.6%	2.8%	58.3%	5.1	-51	5.7	7.1
Adonis Smith	RB	5'11, 200	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	9	61	75.0%	2.6%	60.0%	5.1	-40	6.1	6.6
Aaron Criswell	WR	5'10, 175	Sr.	NR	10	5	33	50.0%	2.2%	70.0%	3.3	-36	3.8	3.6
Andrew Price	TE	6'6, 240	So.	2 stars (5.4)	6	3	27	50.0%	1.3%	33.3%	4.5	-15	7.0	2.9
Jack Killian	WR	6'0, 195	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	5	1	0	20.0%	1.1%	N/A	0.0	-26	0.0	0.0
Jacobie Russell	TE	6'4, 235	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Devonte Boyd	WR	6'2, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Antonio Zepeda	TE	6'6, 240	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)

4. Big plays? Check. Mundane Plays?

Whether Sherry or Decker wins the job at quarterback, the starter will be less mobile than Herring, which might put pressure on a running back corps that must replace its leader. Tim Cornett rushed for 3,733 yards and 35 touchdowns over his four-year career. He also caught 30 of 36 passes, mostly check-downs, for Sherry and Herring in 2013. He was well-rounded and solid, and the loss of Cornett, Herring, and possession receiver Maika Mataele deals the Rebels a significant blow in the efficiency department. But the big plays should remain

In 2014, UNLV's offense will be led by two big-play threats in Shaq Murray-Lawrence and Devante Davis. Shaq-Mu was one of the more exciting small-sample running backs in the country last fall; as you see above, his Opportunity Rate (the percentage of carries gaining at least five yards) was a decent amount lower than Cornett's, but his 13 carries that got at least five yards tended to get much more than five yards. Against Minnesota and Arizona, he had eight carries for 190 yards, and against Fresno State, he had three for 79; actually, the Fresno State game was perfectly descriptive: including two receptions, he had gains of one, three, three, four, and 73 yards. Per-play, that's fantastic. It's also a 20 percent success rate.

Davis, meanwhile, was huge early and late (10 catches for 224 yards against Arizona and CMU, 17 for 330 against Utah State, Air Force, and SDSU) and efficient in the middle. This is an explosive duo, but as it was last year, depth is still an issue. There is very little proven talent in the skill position two-deep after Davis and Shaq-Mu.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	92.6	2.96	2.88	35.3%	70.2%	20.8%	107.1	2.4%	8.4%
Rank	93	62	101	102	54	83	60	12	86

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Brett Boyko	LT	6'7, 310	Sr.	NR	29	2nd All-MWC
Robert Waterman	C	6'2, 290	Sr.	2 stars (5.1)	38
Cameron Jefferson	LG	6'6, 300	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	33
Ron Scoggins	RG	6'3, 335	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	19
Andrew Oberg	RT	6'7, 280	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	13
Nick Gstrein	RG	6'4, 285	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	4
Tom Clarkson	LT	6'6, 290	So.	NR	0
Eric Noone	LG	6'2, 300	So.	NR	0
Brian Roth	C	6'5, 300	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0
Brad Overand	RT				0
Kyle Saxelid	OL	6'7, 255	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)

5. Find a more experienced line than this one

Murray-Lawrence is a play-maker, and if he avoids the urge to dance a bit too long, he and other runners should find some decent holes behind a line that returns 136 career starts among six players with starting experience. Big all-conference tackle Brett Boyko leads the way for a line that has basically everything you would want from an offensive line: experience, depth, talent, continuity, and size. This unit will be the least of the concerns for UNLV's offense in 2014.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.21	94	IsoPPP+	92.7	103
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	43.1%	71	Succ. Rt. +	95.9	72
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	31.7	31	Off. FP+	102.5	32
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.4	82	Redzone S&P+	96.2	72
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	26.0		ACTUAL	20.0	-6.0

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	98	90	72	91
RUSHING	108	101	79	99
PASSING	39	67	72	76
Standard Downs		98	76	112
Passing Downs		67	77	50

Q1 Rk	101	1st Down Rk	99
Q2 Rk	109	2nd Down Rk	60
Q3 Rk	56	3rd Down Rk	97
Q4 Rk	39

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	91.5	3.07	3.55	39.5%	67.3%	16.4%	91.3	2.1%	9.1%
Rank	98	82	90	68	64	96	77	117	20

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Tyler Gaston	DT				13	40.5	5.4%	6.5	5.0	1	0	0	0
Jordan Sparkman	DE	6'6, 265	Sr.	2 stars (5.1)	13	30.5	4.1%	3.5	1.0	0	1	0	0
Mark Garrick	DT				13	27.5	3.7%	5.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Sonny Sanitoa	DE	6'3, 260	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	13	25.5	3.4%	5.5	2.0	0	1	2	0
Alex Klorman	DT				13	23.0	3.1%	3.5	1.5	0	3	0	0
Jeremiah Valoaga	DE	6'5, 245	Jr.	NR	11	20.0	2.7%	5.5	1.0	0	1	0	0
Siuea Vaesau	DE	6'3, 250	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	13	15.5	2.1%	3.5	2.0	0	1	0	0
Parker Holloway	DE				13	15.5	2.1%	3.0	2.0	0	1	0	0
Efrem Clark	DT	6'2, 275	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	8	9.5	1.3%	1.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Asten Koki	DT	6'3, 255	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	6	5.5	0.7%	0.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Najee Johnson	DE	6'5, 220	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)
Tui Maloata	DE	6'3, 260	Jr.	NR
Billy Tanuvasa	DT	6'2, 290	Jr.	2 stars
Joseph Salazar	DE	6'4, 230	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

6. Rebuilding on the interior

In two years, UNLV's defense has improved from 118th in Def. F/+, to 98th, to 87th. While there have certainly been some high-upside players on defense, especially in the secondary, this improvement has come mostly because of options. In 2013, UNLV saw eight linemen, four linebackers, and seven defensive backs log at least 15 tackles; the Rebels lost two key members of the secondary but improved anyway thanks to a viable second string.

Last year's injuries make this year's secondary one of the deepest in the mid-major universe, but the depth of the front seven has been wiped away. Four of the top eight from the defensive line are gone, including tackle and leading pass rusher Tyler Gaston. Meanwhile, three of the top four linebackers are gone, too; the linebacking corps was the thinnest on the defense already, and now it's starting over.

Perhaps most alarming is that all of the losses up front come from the tackle position. Last year's ends all return, for better or worse — the size at the position is strong, and Rebel ends are pretty good against the run, but their effect on the pass rush was minimal — but the tackles will be quite green. And of course, so will a linebacking corps that returns nothing but sophomores and newcomers.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Tani Maka	MLB				13	72.0	9.6%	6.5	0.5	1	0	2	0
Tim Hasson	SLB				13	67.5	9.0%	4.5	0.0	0	4	1	0
Tau Lotulelei	WLB	6'1, 220	So.	NR	11	22.5	3.0%	4.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Max Ehlert	WLB				11	19.0	2.5%	1.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Trent Langham	SLB	6'2, 210	So.	2 stars (5.4)	13	6.5	0.9%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Iggy Porchia	MLB	6'2, 210	So.	NR	9	4.0	0.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Malo Feula	LB	6'0, 235	So.	2 stars (5.2)	10	4.0	0.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Nicolai Bornand	LB	6'1, 230	So.	2 stars (5.2)	10	2.5	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
D.J. Moffitt	LB	6'3, 225	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)
Elexious Perkins II	LB	6'0, 210	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Peni Vea	SS	6'1, 200	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	13	88.0	11.7%	3	0	2	2	0	0
Sidney Hodge (2012)	CB	5'8, 180	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	13	49.0	6.3%	4	0	1	8	1	1
Tajh Hasson	CB	6'1, 195	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	13	44.0	5.9%	1.5	1	1	11	4	0
Frank Crawford	FS				10	41.5	5.5%	0	0	4	2	0	1
Mike Horsey	FS	6'0, 180	Sr.	NR	12	36.5	4.9%	6.5	0	1	3	0	0
Kenny Keys (2012)	SS	6'4, 185	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	12	35.0	4.5%	0	0	2	1	0	0
Kenneth Penny	CB	5'11, 170	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	13	28.5	3.8%	1	0	0	18	0	1
Matt Vinal	SS	6'2, 200	Sr.	NR	13	25.5	3.4%	1.5	0	0	0	0	0
Fred Wilson	CB	6'0, 175	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	13	18.5	2.5%	1	0	0	3	0	0
Marc Philippi	DB	5'11, 210	So.	3 stars (5.6)	13	10.0	1.3%	1	1	0	0	1	0
David Greene	DB	6'0, 200	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	9.0	1.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Brandon Baker	DB	6'1, 175	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	13	8.5	1.1%	0.5	0	0	0	0	0
Torry McTyer	CB	6'0, 175	So.	3 stars (5.5)	13	5.5	0.7%	0	0	1	0	0	0
Troy Hawthorne	FS	6'3, 195	So.	2 stars (5.3)	12	2.5	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Blake Richmond	DB	6'3, 190	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)
Dominique Fenstermacher	DB	5'10, 170	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)

7. Find a more experienced secondary than this one

It appears to be a "strengths get stronger, weaknesses get weaker" situation for UNLV in 2013. The pass rush was mediocre, and the run defense was poor, and with the turnover up front there's no reason to think that will change. But the pass defense ranked 67th in Passing S&P+ despite the pass rush, and with the return of 10 of the top 11 tacklers and two key pieces from 2012, the secondary will be one of the best in the west.

Corners Kenneth Penny and Tajh Hasson combined to defense 30 passes last year (though for the second straight year, the ratio of interceptions to break-ups was painfully low), and safeties Peni Vea and Mike Horsey combined for 9.5 tackles for loss and eight passes defensed. The return of corner Sidney Hodge and safety Kenny Keys could have give UNLV a full two-deep of play-makers. And if three-star freshman Dominique Fenstermacher lives up to his recruiting hype, he could play an early role. If there's room, anyway.

There are all sorts of questions to answer in the front seven, but the pass defense should shine.

8. Shaq-Mu ... Sonny ... Iggy ... Elexious ... Fenstermacher...

Come for the names, stay for the play-making.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Logan Yunker	6'2, 200	Jr.	65	41.8	8	13	16	44.6%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Nicolai Bornand	6'1, 230	So.	48	61.8	14	3	29.2%
Nolan Kohorst			21	54.1	1	1	4.8%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Nolan Kohorst			45-49	6-10	60.0%	4-9	44.4%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Marcus Sullivan	KR	5'9, 195	Sr.	18	28.3	0
Keith Whitely	KR	5'9, 185	So.	18	22.6	0
Keith Whitely	PR	5'9, 185	So.	15	2.9	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	118
Field Goal Efficiency	120
Punt Return Efficiency	76
Kick Return Efficiency	34
Punt Efficiency	112
Kickoff Efficiency	119
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	50

9. A lot of pressure on the return game

UNLV's special teams unit ranked 118th in Special Teams F/+ last year, but the Rebels held steady in the field position battle thanks to return men Marcus Sullivan and Keith Whitely. That both return is a good thing, but UNLV will still have minimal margin for error in this regard unless the Rebels get improvement from its legs — punter Logan Yunker and kickoffs man Nicolai Bornand. And while they will have a new place-kicker as well, departed Nolan Kohorst didn't exactly set the bar very high.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
29-Aug	at Arizona	34
6-Sep	Northern Colorado	NR
13-Sep	Northern Illinois	51
27-Sep	at San Diego State	83
4-Oct	at San Jose State	82
11-Oct	Fresno State	46
25-Oct	at Utah State	69
1-Nov	New Mexico	116
8-Nov	Air Force	105
15-Nov	at BYU	32
22-Nov	at Hawaii	93
29-Nov	Nevada	62

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-21.4% (118)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	120
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	5 / 9.4
TO Luck/Game	-1.7
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	15 (9, 6)

10. An exciting, uncertain fall

Setting aside the fact that UNLV might be banned from the post-season, the Rebels should improve overall thanks to experience, offensive big-play threats like Shaquille Murray-Lawrence and Devante Davis, and extreme depth on the offensive line and in the secondary. This is an exciting squad, albeit one that could still bomb if the defensive front seven and quarterback position holds it back. But the biggest obstacles come from a schedule that doesn't do a lot of favors — UNLV plays only three teams projected worse than 93rd and plays five projected 69th or higher — and from the fact that motivation could suffer if a bowl ban comes to fruition.

Bobby Hauck's fourth-year breakthrough was encouraging, and in 2014, Hauck will field his most experienced squad yet. But without academic improvement, the on-field ceiling for his squad could be limited, both in the short and long term. It's an unusual thing, the fruits of your labor producing both an exciting team and an uncertain present. But it's exactly what Hauck finds entering Year 5.