The big 2014 Colorado State football preview: Holes to fill and reason for optimism

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1. "We're going to be pretty good, and that's kind of exciting"

It's been a confusing couple of decades for Colorado State football. When Sonny Lubick took over for Earle Bruce in 1993, the Rams had never been ranked and had attended only two bowls in their history. Lubick vaulted them to 10-2 and a No. 16 finish in 1994, then had them ranked for part of every season from 1997 to 2003. After long being an afterthought, Colorado State became a steady and powerful mid-major presence.

But after a disappointing 2003 season -- CSU began the season ranked 23rd but fell out of the polls immediately and limped to 7-6 -- the fortunes of the program changed quickly. Lubick went just 17-30 in his last four seasons and retired. Steve Fairchild took over, bumped CSU back to 7-6 with a bowl win in 2008, then went 9-27. The only clear reminder that the magical decade of 1994-03 had even happened was the playing field itself, named after Lubick at the end of that run.

In 2012, former Nick Saban assistant Jim McElwain took over in Fort Collins, inheriting a program that was good at producing an explosive player or two but couldn't maintain enough talent at once. And as with Fairchild, it didn't take him long to break through. After a 4-8 debut, McElwain's Rams went 8-6 in 2013, finishing 4-1 and taking down Washington State in a thrilling New Mexico Bowl to kick off bowl season.

So now what? Fairchild indeed built optimism early in his tenure, but things fell apart quickly. Can McElwain give CSU a level of sustained success the Rams haven't found since his current Rams were about 10 years old? He thinks so.

Colorado State rode an explosive running game and fantastic run defense last year, but both lines are getting rebuilt. The running backs who accounted for 2,567 yards and 35 touchdowns combined are gone. But an exciting quarterback and a deep, swarming back seven on defense give CSU reason for confidence.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 8-6 | Adj. Record: 8-6 | Final F/+ Rk: 66
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
1-Sep	Colorado	95	27-41	L	15.4 - 32.6	L
7-Sep	at Tulsa	94	27-30	L	14.2 - 30.5	L
14-Sep	Cal Poly	N/A	34-17	W	34.2 - 25.9	W
21-Sep	at Alabama	2	6-31	L	22.5 - 24.3	L
28-Sep	UTEP	119	59-42	W	41.1 - 38.1	W	-4.8
12-Oct	San Jose State	74	27-34	L	33.1 - 36.7	L	-2.1
19-Oct	at Wyoming	102	52-22	W	34.0 - 24.8	W	3.0
26-Oct	at Hawaii	82	35-28	W	22.0 - 22.2	L	1.3
2-Nov	Boise State	45	30-42	L	34.2 - 34.0	W	1.7
9-Nov	Nevada	88	38-17	W	35.0 - 24.1	W	3.3
16-Nov	at New Mexico	110	66-42	W	37.9 - 37.9	W	4.0
23-Nov	at Utah State	32	0-13	L	5.6 - 11.5	L	1.0
30-Nov	Air Force	113	58-13	W	36.2 - 17.2	W	4.8
21-Dec	vs. Washington State	53	48-45	W	33.1 - 27.1	W	6.0

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	-3.7%	76	+0.8%	60	+0.3%	61
Points Per Game	36.2	22	29.8	82
Adj. Points Per Game	28.5	65	27.6	64

2. The proverbial light bulb

For two straight years now, Colorado State has finished strong. The Rams won four of six to finish the 2012 season and build a bit of hype for 2013, but a 2-4 start last season dampened most expectations. CSU didn't wait quite as long to find fourth gear, however.

Adj. Points per game (first 6 games): Opponent 31.4, CSU 26.8 (minus-4.6)
Adj. Points per game (last 8 games): CSU 29.8, Opponent 24.9 (plus-4.9)

Junior college transfer Kapri Bibbs rushed for 429 yards through the first six games of the year, but beginning with the October 19 trip to Wyoming, he erupted. He had 29 carries for 201 yards against Wyoming, 33 for 137 against Hawaii, 30 for 312 against Nevada, 38 for 291 against New Mexico. He got dinged up late in the year and got shut down by Boise State, but he still averaged 164 yards per game over the final eight games of the season. Despite a toe injury, Bibbs rushed for 169 yards in the bowl win, and despite only one FBS season, he declared for the NFL Draft following the season.

Late-season improvement is often sustainable if the reasons for the improvement return the following year. Bibbs was a large reason for the surge, and both he and his two backups are gone. But as you see above, defensive improvement was actually the biggest reason for the improvement. The Rams defense returns solid depth, but some of the biggest stars on that side of the ball are gone, too.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.18	42	IsoPPP+	99.0	67
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	44.9%	47	Succ. Rt. +	94.6	80
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	30.9	91	Def. FP+	95.4	103
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	5.1	5	Redzone S&P+	110.2	28
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	22.5		ACTUAL	20	-2.5

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	24	76	81	65
RUSHING	27	64	70	62
PASSING	30	85	87	54
Standard Downs		64	83	40
Passing Downs		95	77	121

Q1 Rk	78	1st Down Rk	76
Q2 Rk	69	2nd Down Rk	61
Q3 Rk	90	3rd Down Rk	75
Q4 Rk	32

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2014 Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

TD

INT

Comp Rate

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/ Att.

Garrett Grayson

6'2, 220

Sr.

3 stars (5.6)

297

478

3696

23

11

62.1%

21

4.2%

7.2

Nick Stevens

6'3, 190

So.

2 stars (5.3)

Coleman Key

6'4, 215

Fr.

3 stars (5.5)

3. Things change

A year ago in last year's CSU preview, I talked up quarterback Conner Smith, then a sophomore. Smith had filled in for the injured Garrett Grayson and M.J. McPeek in 2012 and held his own, averaging 7.5 yards per pass attempt. In terms of on-field production, it appeared that he had perhaps surpassed Grayson. But then Grayson caught up in spring ball and passed him in fall practice. Grayson played a pretty exciting, off-the-cuff style of ball and held onto the starting job all fall, and Smith quietly transferred after the season.

Garret Grayson/Photo credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Heading into his senior season, Grayson is the unquestioned leader of the offense. He's a fun player, elusive and adept at making plays on the move, but in 2014 he'll be asked to make quite a few more plays. His receiving corps is seasoned and rather exciting, but the running game is starting from scratch, and he'll be protected by a green line. Grayson built some hype with his bowl performance (31-for-50 for 369 yards, two touchdowns, an interception, and six non-sack carries for 32 yards), but he'll probably have to improve just to match last year's numbers.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Kapri Bibbs	RB				281	1741	31	6.2	6.8	40.2%
Chris Nwoke	RB				101	398	2	3.9	4.3	31.7%
Donnell Alexander	RB				71	428	2	6.0	4.4	52.1%
Garrett Grayson	QB	6'2, 220	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	47	247	2	5.3	3.2	51.1%
Joe Hansley	WR	5'10, 180	Jr.	NR	11	61	0	5.5	3.2	63.6%
Davon Riddick	CB				6	10	0	1.7		0.0%
Eric Williams	RB	5'9, 200	So.	NR	5	3	0	0.6		0.0%
Jasen Oden	RB	6'1, 208	Jr.	NR
Bryce Peters	RB	5'11, 205	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Deron Thompson	RB	5'10, 170	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)
Trey Smith	RB	6'0, 176	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Johnathan Lewis	RB	5'11, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

4. A complete reset in the running game

Colorado State running backs rushed 458 times last season, but those responsible for 453 of those carries are gone. Kapri Bibbs declared for the draft, Chris Nwoke graduated, and Donnell Alexander recently announced that he was transferring.

Colorado State offensive linemen had combined for 163 career starts at the end of the season; those responsible for 132 of those starts are gone. All four were seniors, and all four were multi-year starters, including center Weston Richburg.

McElwain appears to have recruited well at both running back and offensive line, but the quality of the recruiting will be tested dramatically in 2014. Three-star redshirt freshman Bryce Peters figures to be the primary running back this fall, along with converted defensive back Jasen Oden and a bevy of well-touted incoming freshmen. The line will feature more upperclassmen; all-conference senior tackle Ty Sambrailo returns (although he is out for the spring with an injury), and seniors Mason Myers and Mason Hathaway should play a role, along with juniors Jordan Finley, Sam Carlson, and Kevin O'Brien. Still, youngsters like Jake Bennett, Trae Moxley, and Fred Zerblis will also be involved, and it's really difficult to assume anything other than a drop-off in the run game.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Rashard Higgins	WR	6'2, 180	So.	2 stars (5.4)	100	68	837	68.0%	21.9%	59.6%	8.4	36	7.9	84.5
Joe Hansley	WR	5'10, 180	Jr.	NR	81	53	614	65.4%	17.7%	66.7%	7.6	-23	7.5	62.0
Crockett Gillmore	TE				68	47	577	69.1%	14.9%	49.3%	8.5	28	8.6	58.3
Kivon Cartwright	TE	6'4, 245	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	54	27	462	50.0%	11.8%	68.0%	8.6	88	8.0	46.6
Charles Lovett	WR	5'8, 182	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	36	26	396	72.2%	7.9%	55.9%	11.0	98	9.8	40.0
Jordon Vaden	WR	6'3, 185	So.	2 stars (5.3)	36	22	255	61.1%	7.9%	61.8%	7.1	-19	6.0	25.7
Donnell Alexander	RB				26	21	178	80.8%	5.7%	42.9%	6.8	-50	6.4	18.0
Thomas Coffman	WR				24	15	251	62.5%	5.3%	70.0%	10.5	67	9.3	25.3
Kapri Bibbs	RB				11	7	58	63.6%	2.4%	60.0%	5.3	-27	4.5	5.9
Chris Nwoke	RB				10	6	73	60.0%	2.2%	100.0%	7.3	-2	5.1	7.4
Robert Ruiz	WR	5'9, 170	So.	NR	3	1	11	33.3%	0.7%	0.0%	3.7	-7	2.4	1.1
Willie Udofia	DB				2	1	2	50.0%	0.4%	0.0%	1.0	-12	0.4	0.2
Elroy Masters, Jr.	WR	6'2, 208	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Sammie Long	WR	6'3, 180	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)
Steven Walker	TE	6'2, 240	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)
Christian Montes	TE	6'4, 255	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)
Deionte Gaines	WR	5'8, 170	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)
John Freismuth	WR	6'4, 201	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

5. A shift toward the pass?

Colorado State operated from a quarterback-friendly system in 2013, throwing slightly more than the national average on standard downs (usually to possession options like Rashard Higgins, Joe Hansley, and tight end Kivon Cartwright) and running slightly more than average on passing downs. This is a good way to steal easy yards, and it both put Grayson in position to succeed and gave Bibbs open opportunities against defenses expecting the pass.

One has to figure we'll see either the same thing in 2014 or if there will be an even more pronounced difference. Higgins, Hansley, and Cartwright all return, as does big-play threat Charles Lovett. The receiving corps is as experienced as the running backs are inexperienced, and to prevent Grayson from facing second-and-8 after second-and-8, it's conceivable that CSU will pass even more frequently on standard downs.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	101	3.18	3.38	40.9%	73.1%	16.4%	121.1	4.0%	4.3%
Rank	65	27	48	48	38	20	44	46	26

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Weston Richburg	C				50	1st All-MWC
Ty Sambrailo	LT	6'5, 310	Sr.	2 stars (5.1)	30	2nd All-MWC
Jordan Gragert	RG				37
Jared Biard	RT				24
Brandon Haynes	LG				21
Mason Hathaway	RT	6'5, 294	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	1
Sam Carlson	LT	6'4, 280	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0
Nick Callender	LT	6'5, 315	So.	NR	0
Mason Myers	LG	6'3, 300	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0
Kevin O'Brien	OL	6'3, 290	Jr.	NR	0
Fred Zerblis	C	6'3, 295	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0
Tomas Rivera	RG	6'6, 310	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0
Blake Nowland	OL	6'6, 309	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Jake Bennett	OL	6'3, 265	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Trae Moxley	OL	6'5, 270	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Zack Golditch	OL	6'6, 260	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)
Jordan Finley	OL	6'3, 265	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.26	106	IsoPPP+	90.0	113
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	38.9%	30	Succ. Rt. +	105.8	38
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	28.7	96	Off. FP+	94.5	112
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.1	60	Redzone S&P+	102.3	48
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	28.1		ACTUAL	22.0	-6.1

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	81	59	38	69
RUSHING	30	18	15	28
PASSING	116	101	85	104
Standard Downs		74	39	117
Passing Downs		45	38	62

Q1 Rk	51	1st Down Rk	74
Q2 Rk	69	2nd Down Rk	51
Q3 Rk	82	3rd Down Rk	80
Q4 Rk	66

6. Break-don't-bend

The bend-don't-break defense is popular at the college level. Live to play another down, sacrifice short gains in the name of preventing big ones, and perhaps you'll eventually force a mistake from the offense (or the offense will simply make a mistake of its own volition). It has worked for a lot of defenses, especially those that don't have blue-chip athleticism across the board.

Colorado State went the other way in 2013, the Michigan State way. Hammer the line of scrimmage, allow nothing easy, force passing downs, and take your chances on the big plays. If you can pull it off, it is the most satisfying, effective way to play defense, as efficiency means more in college football than we probably even realize. But it's hard to pull it off.

CSU didn't have Michigan State's secondary, and it cost the Rams quite often. But the Rams made a lot of plays near the line of scrimmage. They had one of the nation's best mid-major run defenses and a linebacking corps that went well beyond star pass rusher Shaquil Barrett (who was last seen making seemingly every play down the stretch against Washington State). They swarmed and attacked and forced passing downs; they also improved from 106th to 60th in Def. F/+. Co-coordinators Marty English and Al Simmons figured out which buttons to press in 2013. Now we get to see if they can do it again with a new cast of characters up front.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	113.6	2.56	3.09	33.9%	62.0%	19.7%	107.8	5.4%	6.7%
Rank	23	19	42	17	33	54	47	45	65

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Eli Edwards	DE				14	22.0	2.7%	4.5	1.0	0	1	0	0
Terry Jackson	DT	6'1, 275	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	19.5	2.4%	5.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Curtis Wilson	DT				14	18.0	2.2%	2.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Calvin Tonga	NT				12	16.0	2.0%	2.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Joe Kawulok	DE	6'6, 250	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	13.0	1.6%	3.5	3.5	0	0	1	0
LaRyan King	NT	6'1, 285	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	14	8.0	1.0%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Josh Lovingood	DL	6'4, 250	So.	2 stars (5.3)	3	5.5	0.7%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Austin Berk	DE	6'5, 225	So.	3 stars (5.5)	5	2.5	0.3%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Justin Hansen	NT	6'5, 310	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	8	2.0	0.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Johnny Schupp	DL	6'5, 260	So.	NR
Martavius Foster	DE	6'3, 260	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)
Silvester Hayes	DE	6'3, 210	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

7. Rebuilding a thin line

How much of CSU's run success was because of the line, and how much was because of the linebacking corps? The answer to those questions will determine a lot of the Rams' defensive success in 2014. Virtually every linebacker returns this year (everybody but Barrett, that is), including a tackling machine in Max Morgan, dynamic run defender Aaron Davis, and pass rusher Cory James. But up front, starting end Eli Edwards is gone, as are two of the top three tackles. The Rams have a potential ace pass rusher in Joe Kawulok, who made 3.5 sacks among his 13.0 tackles in 2013, but the line has thinned out quite a bit. The linebacking corps will be asked to carry an even larger load this fall.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Max Morgan	MLB	6'1, 225	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	14	102.5	12.7%	2.0	0.0	1	6	1	1
Aaron Davis	WLB	6'0, 220	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	14	91.5	11.4%	7.0	0.0	0	3	3	1
Shaquil Barrett	BUCK				14	59.0	7.3%	20.5	12.0	1	2	4	0
Cory James	SLB	6'0, 240	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	13	44.0	5.5%	12.0	8.0	0	1	2	0
Nu'uvali Fa'apito	WLB	6'0, 221	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	10	15.0	1.9%	0.5	0.0	0	0	1	0
Steven Michel	SLB	6'1, 225	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	12	13.0	1.6%	1.5	1.0	0	0	1	0
Deonte Clyburn	WLB	6'1, 217	So.	2 stars (5.3)	13	9.0	1.1%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Danny Nwosu	BUCK	6'2, 233	So.	NR	14	8.5	1.1%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Ken Hulbert	MLB	5'11, 215	Sr.	NR	13	8.5	1.1%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Nolan Peralta	MLB	6'3, 230	So.	NR	10	3.0	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Bryan Ohene	BUCK	6'1, 215	So.	2 stars (5.2)	4	2.0	0.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Kevin Davis	LB	6'3, 230	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)
Kiel Robinson	LB	6'2, 205	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Evan Colorito	LB	6'4, 230	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)
Josh Watson	LB	6'2, 231	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

8. Best mid-major linebacking corps?

It's strange to lose a guy who made 20.5 tackles for loss and 12 sacks and forced fumbles and still say that the linebacking corps is going to be great, but ... CSU's linebacking corps is going to be great. The Rams are not only wonderfully experienced (three seniors and three juniors among their top eight returnees), but as mentioned above, they return some studs even without Barrett. If the line can just establish a certain level of competence -- not becoming a strength, but not becoming a weakness -- this unit will swallow up plays near the line of scrimmage just like it did last year.

Even if the run defense regresses a bit because of the line, the biggest concern for the defense will probably still be the secondary. CSU had a strong pass rush and aggressive defensive backs (corners Bernard Blake, Shaq Bell, and DeAndre Elliott combined for three picks, 27 break-ups, and 12 tackles for loss), and they made life difficult for opposing passers. But if you beat them, you beat them. The big plays the Rams allowed were bigger than most. It will be interesting to see what happens now that Bell is gone; he was the Rams' strongest defender near the line, but he was certainly prone to breakdowns as well. Without him, it's possible that CSU's pass defense gets a little more stable with a little less upside. But there are still play-makers here. It'll come down to the plays they allow.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Kevin Pierre-Louis	SS	6'1, 212	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	55.0	6.8%	1	0	1	3	2	0
Bernard Blake	CB	6'0, 180	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	14	53.0	6.6%	4.5	0	1	12	1	0
Shaq Bell	CB				14	49.5	6.2%	7.5	0.5	1	5	0	0
Trent Matthews	FS	6'3, 210	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	14	49.5	6.2%	2.5	1	4	3	0	0
Jasen Oden	RB				14	31.5	3.9%	1	0	0	2	1	0
DeAndre Elliott	CB	6'1, 185	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	13	26.5	3.3%	0	0	1	10	0	1
Tyree Simmons	CB	5'11, 170	So.	2 stars (5.4)	14	26.0	3.2%	2	1	0	4	0	0
Jake Schlager	S	6'0, 195	So.	2 stars (5.3)	14	16.0	2.0%	0	0	0	1	1	0
Nick Januska	FS	6'2, 210	Jr.	NR	11	11.0	1.4%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Josh Bowman	S	6'0, 185	So.	2 stars (5.2)
Justin Sweet	DB	5'10, 181	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Preston Hodges	DB	5'11, 196	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)
Marcus Wilson	DB	5'10, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)
Kevin Nutt	DB	5'10, 186	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Hayden Hunt	6'1, 196	So.	68	41.9	4	12	14	38.2%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Jared Roberts	6'1, 205	Sr.	94	60.4	31	4	33.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Jared Roberts	6'1, 205	Sr.	58-58	13-15	86.7%	8-9	88.9%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Thomas Coffman	KR			34	23.4	0
Tyree Simmons	KR	5'11, 170	So.	3	24.0	0
Tyree Simmons	PR	5'11, 170	So.	11	14.2	0
Joe Hansley	PR	5'10, 180	Jr.	8	19.9	1

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	62
Field Goal Efficiency	16
Punt Return Efficiency	55
Kick Return Efficiency	56
Punt Efficiency	111
Kickoff Efficiency	68
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	80

9. Sew up that punt coverage

CSU's offense ranked 80th in Success Rate+ but 103rd in the field position it created for the defense. CSU's defense ranked 38th in Success Rate+ but 112th in the field position it created for the offense.

In other words, special teams gave away a lot of the gains CSU made on offense and defense. The Rams' return game wasn't bad (especially on punts), and place-kicker Jared Roberts was fantastic in making eight of nine field goals over 40 yards. But kick coverage was mediocre, and punt coverage was absolutely atrocious. Punter Hayden Hunt averaged a respectable 42 yards per kick but fewer than one in five punts were fair caught, and opponents averaged a solid 9.7 yards per return. This added up, and it tilted the field in opponents' favor even when CSU was doing well. If the CSU offense is going to struggle to run the ball, special teams will need to fill in the gaps.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
29-Aug	vs. Colorado	96
6-Sep	at Boise State	18
13-Sep	UC Davis	NR
27-Sep	at Boston College	80
4-Oct	Tulsa	64
11-Oct	at Nevada	62
18-Oct	Utah State	69
25-Oct	Wyoming	100
1-Nov	at San Jose State	82
8-Nov	Hawaii	93
22-Nov	New Mexico	116
29-Nov	at Air Force	105

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-18.0% (112)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	77
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	2 / 5.5
TO Luck/Game	-1.3
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	12 (5, 7)

10. A "pretty good" team might win nine games

It appears Jim McElwain is pretty happy with how his squad is coming together this spring, and it's not hard to see why. He's got a quarterback who made a name for himself at the end of the season, he's got most of his receiving corps returning, he's got an incredible set of linebackers, he's got a good place-kicker, and he's got a secondary that at least makes as many plays as it allows (but does need to allow fewer big plays).

What's scary about Colorado State, however, is that the holes that do exist are huge. The Rams have no running back experience and lost both four starters on the offensive line and three on the defensive line. Plus, as good as the linebackers appear to be, it's never a good thing to lose a 20-TFL guy.

Recruiting has been strong and balanced: there are former three-star recruits in every unit on the team, and there are quite a few at defensive back and on the defensive line. McElwain appears to be building strong depth here, and that's exciting for the future. But it's still uncertain whether the Rams can avoid at least a temporary drop-off in 2014.

That said, a "pretty good" team could do some damage against this schedule. CSU plays only four teams projected better than 80th, and two of those teams (Tulsa and Utah State) come to Fort Collins. Even if the Rams aren't as good as they were last year -- certainly a distinct possibility -- a second-straight bowl should be in the cards. Considering CSU hasn't pulled off back-to-back postseason bids since 2002-03, that should be enough for now.