The big 2014 Kansas State football guide: Dark horses or simply favorites?

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

1. Stats vs. eyeballs vs. stats

We've completed the circle.

Two years after Kansas State drastically overachieved compared to what the numbers would suggest, two years after I spent a good portion of the 2011 season telling you the Wildcats were winning through unsustainable means, and two years after I broke down and talked about head coach Bill Snyder's "wizardry" in a stats-heavy preview, I now get to do the opposite.

For as lucky and potentially overrated as Kansas State's 2011 squad was, the Wildcats were equally unlucky and underrated in 2013.

Kansas State suffered through minus-3.0 points per game of bad turnovers luck in a season that saw them lose five games by 10 or fewer points and two by four or fewer. They recovered zero of seven fumbles in losses to Oklahoma and Texas. They lost via nine-minute touchdown drive to North Dakota State. They outgained Oklahoma State by six yards and were outgained by Baylor by just one. Kansas State was close to something much better than 8-5 in 2013, just as they were close to something much worse in 2011. And in the end, their 2013 F/+ ranking (24th) was a bit higher than that of the 11-win 2011 squad (29th).

After October 1, following a few shaky weeks with new starters and close losses, Kansas State played like a legitimate top-20 team again. The Wildcats nearly knocked off both Oklahoma State and Baylor (two top-10 caliber teams), then won six of their final seven games. They return their starting quarterback (Jake Waters), one of the best receivers in the country (Tyler Lockett), two all-conference offensive linemen (B.J. Finney and Cody Whitehair), one of the Big 12's best pass rushers (Ryan Mueller), a strong run-supporting linebacker (Jonathan Truman), a safety ball-hawk (Dante Barrett), and one of the Big 12's more aggressive, effective cornerbacks (Randall Evans). Plus, Bill Snyder still roams the sidelines.

Granted, the names above are just about all KSU returns on defense, but ... why aren't we talking up the Wildcats more? I've seen some "Big 12 dark horse" buzz, but why are they a sleeper at all? Why aren't they simply a contender?

They've won 29 games in three years, and they produced top-25 quality a year after losing an all-time difference maker (Collin Klein) at quarterback. They do face defensive turnover, but they did last year, too. They do have to travel to Norman and Waco this year, but every Big 12 schedule has potholes.

Oklahoma's win over Alabama in the Sugar Bowl sucked up most of the Big 12's offseason oxygen and made the Sooners seemingly runaway conference favorites, but what if the Sooners are closer to their pre-Alabama 2013 form? Why couldn't a team like Kansas State make a charge?

I can make a reasonable argument for them. And this time, I have stats, not wizardry on my side.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 8-5 | Adj. Record: 11-2 | Final F/+ Rk: 24
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
30-Aug	North Dakota State	N/A	21-24	L	27.0 - 30.9	L
7-Sep	UL-Lafayette	86	48-27	W	39.9 - 19.4	W
14-Sep	Massachusetts	118	37-7	W	38.5 - 29.7	W
21-Sep	at Texas	35	21-31	L	27.1 - 34.6	L
5-Oct	at Oklahoma State	8	29-33	L	32.8 - 24.5	W	5.2
12-Oct	Baylor	7	25-35	L	40.9 - 24.2	W	9.4
26-Oct	West Virginia	76	35-12	W	41.7 - 25.1	W	8.6
2-Nov	Iowa State	78	41-7	W	33.8 - 20.5	W	9.5
9-Nov	at Texas Tech	43	49-26	W	44.8 - 25.4	W	14.8
16-Nov	TCU	44	33-31	W	42.6 - 35.9	W	14.5
23-Nov	Oklahoma	20	31-41	L	41.0 - 34.1	W	12.6
30-Nov	at Kansas	101	31-10	W	29.0 - 23.7	W	10.3
28-Dec	vs. Michigan	37	31-14	W	40.7 - 24.8	W	10.8

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	+14.4%	14	+4.4%	43	+1.8%	33
Points Per Game	33.2	37	22.9	31
Adj. Points Per Game	36.9	14	27.1	60

2. It took a few weeks

It was a strange experience, chatting with a couple of Kansas State fans at the end of September and trying to convince them that their team was already pretty good and not far from being a lot better. KSU quarterbacks were coming off of a three-interception performance against Oklahoma State, tantalizing dual-threat Daniel Sams was struggling to establish his role, and a defense that had to replace nine starters was playing at a slightly below-average level. K-State was 2-2 and about to fall to 2-4.

But the pieces were there. Once Waters got his sea legs, Sams carved out a niche, and the defense simply got some reps, K-State began to look like Old K-State again.

• Adj. Points Per Game (first 4 games): KSU 33.1, Opponent 28.7 (plus-4.4)
• Adj. Points Per Game (last 9 games): KSU 38.6, Opponent 26.5 (plus-12.1)

After nearly taking down Baylor when Baylor was at its peak, KSU disposed of West Virginia, Iowa State, and Texas Tech by an average score of 42-15, survived a TCU upset bid (KSU had to settle for four field goals, and TCU's offense caught fire in the second half), and forced Oklahoma to play its best game of the season to date in a 41-31 loss to the Sooners. The Wildcats finished with at least 31 points in each of the last seven games and gained at least 6.4 yards per play in six. The defense, meanwhile, allowed 5.4 or fewer yards per play in six of seven and allowed 26 or fewer points in five.

This was one of Bill Snyder's better coaching jobs. With almost no defensive continuity and a new starting quarterback (one with a completely different skill set than the last), KSU needed all of a month to find a high-caliber level of play again. There's more work to do on defense this time around, but the offense could hum.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.23	21	IsoPPP+	103.8	42
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	48.2%	18	Succ. Rt. +	118.8	10
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	30.9	92	Def. FP+	97.4	84
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.5	44	Redzone S&P+	130.5	4
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	16.5		ACTUAL	25	+8.5

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	72	17	10	57
RUSHING	54	21	17	51
PASSING	75	11	11	63
Standard Downs		12	12	35
Passing Downs		26	20	51

Q1 Rk	12	1st Down Rk	18
Q2 Rk	12	2nd Down Rk	33
Q3 Rk	20	3rd Down Rk	14
Q4 Rk	64

3. Spread principles and a Gronk

Back in February, I wrote one of my favorite Football Study Hall posts of the offseason.

At its heart, though, the spread ethos is about putting playmakers in space and giving them room to make plays. It originally developed as an underdog tactic of sorts, as a way to spread out and harry more talented defenses and hopefully force some mistakes. But there is a certain level of tactical superiority to the idea, and after a while, a lot of the most talented teams in the country began to employ more and more spread tactics.

But who actually spread you out the most in 2013? Whether a team is actually doing it well or not, the spread is designed to create numbers advantages and get the ball-carrier away from a mass of tacklers. That often leads to solo tackles. So which offensive systems led to the most solo tackles?

Looking at the percentage of solo tackles an offense forced is a pretty decent way of looking at spread principles, and sure enough, a lot of well-known spread offenses were near the top of the list -- Texas Tech (No. 2), Baylor (No. 4), Indiana (No. 5).

No. 1, however, was the offense run by 74-year-old Bill Snyder and his co-coordinators, 51-year-old Dana Dimel and 63-year-old Del Miller.

(It should be noted that home scorekeepers vary in the frequency with which they record solo tackles and assists, but even looking only at road games, which use the other team's scorekeepers, KSU would have been in the top six.)

Turns out, there is a multitude of ways to get the ball to your playmakers in space. And while the Wildcats don't have much of a spread reputation, they use basically every method at their disposal. Option? Check. Fullbacks? Check. Four-wide? Check. Few coaching staffs are better at identifying the talents of their personnel and figuring out unique ways to utilize them.

It will be interesting to see what that means for 2014. Daniel Sams has transferred, which means that, barring injury or suddenly incredible play from redshirt freshmen Jesse Ertz or Taylor Laird in practice, Jake Waters is the man in charge of the offense. He is a reasonably effective runner (or at least, he picks his spots well), but his strengths are pocket-based (in that he's fearless in the pocket is both a strength and, when you check out his sack rates, a weakness). Thanks to the loss of both John Hubert and Robert Rose (eminently replaceable backs whom we can't assume will be replaced in full), returning KSU tailbacks combined for five carries in 2013. In fact, there have been rumors that sophomore fullback Glenn "yes, that Gronkowski" Gronkowski might see some time at tailback.

Combine the status of the backfield with the return of not only the incredible Tyler Lockett but also underrated No. 2 receiver Curry Sexton, and it's not hard to start wondering if KSU might be passing quite a bit this season. It's conceivable, but chances are that we'll see the same run-pass rates we saw in both 2012 (68 percent rushes on standard downs, 37 percent on passing downs) and 2013 (67 percent and 37 percent, respectively). The ratios don't change; the style within the ratios might.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Jake Waters	6'1, 210	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	159	260	2469	18	9	61.2%	23	8.1%	8.3
Daniel Sams				38	53	452	4	4	71.7%	2	3.6%	7.9
Jesse Ertz	6'4, 199	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Taylor Laird	6'4, 230	RSFr.	NR

4. If Waters gets hurt, all bets are off

Jesse Ertz was both one of Iowa's most prolific passers and best sprinters in high school. Taylor Laird is a physically-gifted, if under-seasoned, prospect who came aboard when Sams announced his transfer. With Snyder, Dimel, and Miller crafting the gameplans, KSU will probably move the ball no matter who's behind center. Still, there will be a learning curve if Jake Waters goes down. If KSU is indeed a conference contender (again, a lot of that depends on Oklahoma), it's probably only with Waters leading the way.

This is at least a little bit of a concern because, well, Waters takes hits. He didn't run as frequently as Sams, obviously, but he did still rush 95 times (non-sacks) in 2013, and he did still take a sack once for every 12 or so pass attempts (and while two all-conference linemen do return, they account for 63 of KSU's 68 returning starts up front).

Not many teams are blessed with proven backups, but KSU is very low on the "proven" scale.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
John Hubert	RB				198	1048	10	5.3	4.9	43.9%
Daniel Sams	QB				150	823	11	5.5	4.3	46.7%
Jake Waters	QB	6'1, 210	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	95	439	6	4.6	5.0	37.9%
Robert Rose	RB				24	104	2	4.3	3.8	37.5%
DeMarcus Robinson	RB	5'7, 209	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	5	20	0	4.0	2.5	40.0%
Jarvis Leverett Jr.	RB	5'11, 203	So.	3 stars (5.5)
Charles Jones	RB	5'10, 197	So.	2 stars (5.4)
Dalvin Warmack	RB	5'9, 183	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Tyler Lockett	WR	5'11, 175	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	114	81	1262	71.1%	38.8%	58.0%	11.1	328	11.2	241.6
Curry Sexton	WR	5'11, 183	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	55	39	446	70.9%	18.7%	45.8%	8.1	-4	8.3	85.4
Tramaine Thompson	WR				51	32	551	62.7%	17.3%	62.5%	10.8	158	11.7	105.5
Torell Miller	WR				20	12	111	60.0%	6.8%	45.0%	5.6	-40	6.1	21.3
John Hubert	RB				17	13	129	76.5%	5.8%	62.5%	7.6	-16	7.9	24.7
Zach Trujillo	TE	6'5, 256	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	12	5	111	41.7%	4.1%	66.7%	9.3	34	9.2	21.3
Kyle Klein	WR	6'4, 210	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	11	5	59	45.5%	3.7%	54.5%	5.4	-14	5.4	11.3
Glenn Gronkowski	FB	6'3, 234	So.	2 stars (5.4)	8	5	194	62.5%	2.7%	75.0%	24.3	133	22.0	37.1
Andre McDonald	TE				4	3	28	75.0%	1.4%	66.7%	7.0	-6	9.9	5.4
Robert Rose	RB				1	1	23	100.0%	0.3%	N/A	23.0	13	0.0	4.4
Stephen Johnson	WR				1	1	7	100.0%	0.3%	100.0%	7.0	-3	3.9	1.3
Deante Burton	WR	6'2, 205	So.	3 stars (5.5)
Judah Jones	WR	5'11, 180	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Cody Small	TE	6'4, 237	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Andre Davis	WR	6'0, 185	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)

5. Ode to Tyler

So yeah, there are plenty of legitimate reasons to doubt KSU's offense if you're so inclined.

The running backs corps includes a Gronk and a former four-star recruit (DeMarcus Robinson), but Gronk isn't exactly a burner and Robinson has never actually played like a four-star recruit. There will be youth at running back, and after the top two, returning KSU receivers caught five balls last year. Depth is certainly a concern, and it does take faith in the coaching staff to assume the offense will be particularly strong.

All of that previous paragraph is true. But it doesn't mention Tyler Lockett. Short, medium, or long, single- or double-covered, Tyler Lockett gets open. He was targeted more than KSU's No. 2 and No. 3 targets combined last year, and he averaged 15.6 yards per catch while leading KSU with a 71 percent catch rate. It's difficult to truly call a receiver the best player in a given conference, simply due to the position's dependence on others, but Lockett might be better at his position than anybody else in the Big 12. He will be used to both make big plays and distract defenses into making bad decisions elsewhere.

KSU will still need a running back and a healthy quarterback. And a line that was good at run blocking will need to possibly improve despite inexperience. But ... they have Tyler Lockett. And Snyder/Dimel/Miller. They'll be okay.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	113.9	3.25	3.37	43.1%	68.2%	21.1%	62.4	6.1%	11.0%
Rank	15	21	50	22	67	89	118	98	108

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
B.J. Finney	C	6'4, 303	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	38	1st All-Big 12
Cody Whitehair	RT	6'4, 309	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	25	2nd All-Big 12
Cornelius Lucas	LT				26
Keenan Taylor	RG				24
Tavon Rooks	RT				23
Boston Stiverson	RG	6'4, 312	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	5
Drew Liddle	C	6'3, 288	Sr.	NR	0
Aaron Bennett	LT	6'7, 285	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0
Matt Kleinsorge	RT	6'5, 306	Jr.	NR	0
Reed Bergstrom	RG	6'2, 305	Jr.	NR	0
Will Ash	LG	6'2, 338	So.	NR	0
Chance Allen	LT	6'5, 295	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Luke Hayes	OL	6'6, 295	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)
A.J. Allen	OL	6'7, 315	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)
Terrale Johnson	OL	6'2, 305	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)
Dalton Risner	OL	6'4, 290	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.98	6	IsoPPP+	116.3	6
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	43.2%	75	Succ. Rt. +	91.8	93
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	31.8	30	Off. FP+	98.5	77
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.9	29	Redzone S&P+	95.2	76
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	24.4		ACTUAL	25.0	+0.6

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	26	63	93	21
RUSHING	27	86	101	37
PASSING	48	42	75	20
Standard Downs		70	101	6
Passing Downs		51	44	52

Q1 Rk	55	1st Down Rk	48
Q2 Rk	68	2nd Down Rk	57
Q3 Rk	71	3rd Down Rk	68
Q4 Rk	31

6. Bend ... bend ... bend...

I'm less confident about the defense. Again, the floor is only going to be so low with Tom Hayes in charge and Snyder recruits in place. Still, the loss of so many starters in 2013 led to regression from 16th to 43rd in Def. F/+. When you lose a ton of starters in back-to-back seasons, it puts serious strain on recruiting and depth.

Now, if recruiting comes through then all might be well. Four-star redshirt freshman end Tanner Wood joins the rotation, as do four-star JUCO transfers Terrell Clinkscales (tackle) and D'Vonta Derricott (linebacker). This being a Snyder team, there are other JUCOs and high-caliber walk-ons in the mix as well. Still, only two steady contributors remain from that 2012 defense: linebacker Jonathan Truman and corner Randall Evans.

Odds are good that we'll see a KSU defense similar to what showed up last year. Since Snyder's return from retirement, a bend-don't-break defense has been the standard, and KSU has been really good at pulling it off. Baylor game aside, the Wildcats were still among the best teams in the country last season when it came to preventing big plays. Even including the Baylor game, they were sixth in IsoPPP+, an opponent-adjusted measure of the magnitude of big plays. Despite a bit of a run sieve up front, opposing offenses still weren't getting anywhere very quickly against KSU. Since-departed safety Ty Zimmerman was a big reason for that (as evidenced by what happened when he got hurt and missed the OU game and most of the TCU game), but he wasn't the only reason.

The problem in 2013 was that the Wildcats bent a bit too much. The line wasn't effective enough against the run, and the damage sometimes trickled to the pass. Unless the line improves -- and it could -- we'll see the same this fall.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	92.4	2.95	3.30	38.4%	64.2%	21.4%	97.2	3.7%	6.8%
Rank	93	66	64	54	44	33	65	87	63

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Ryan Mueller	DE	6'2, 245	Sr.	NR	13	57.5	8.0%	18.5	11.5	0	6	4	0
Travis Britz	DT	6'4, 293	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	13	31.0	4.3%	6.5	3.0	0	4	0	0
Chaquil Reed	DT				13	27.5	3.8%	5.0	2.0	0	1	0	0
Alauna Finau	DE				13	18.5	2.6%	4.0	0.5	0	1	1	0
Marquel Bryant	DE	6'3, 241	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	12	13.0	1.8%	3.0	2.0	0	1	0	0
Demonte Hood	DT	6'0, 303	So.	3 stars (5.5)	9	6.5	0.9%	1.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Valentino Coleman	DT	6'2, 285	Sr.	NR	10	4.0	0.6%	0.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Laton Dowling	DE	6'3, 254	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	13	2.5	0.3%	2.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Chris Brown	DT				9	2.5	0.3%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jordan Willis	DE	6'5, 250	So.	3 stars (5.6)
DeAndre Roberts	DT	6'5, 280	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)
Tanner Wood	DE	6'5, 235	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)
Will Geary	DT	6'0, 290	RSFr.	NR
Terrell Clinkscales	DT	6'4, 315	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)

7. Weakness gets stronger

Despite Ryan Mueller's pass-rush prowess, the line was KSU's biggest weakness a year ago. While recruiting rankings matter less for KSU than other teams, they still told a story in 2013. Last year's starters included a former walk-on (Mueller), two former two-star recruits (Travis Britz, Alauna Finau), and a former low-three-star (Chaquil Reed). Snyder and company make more out of less, but that might have been too less, at least against the run.

As strange as it may sound, the secret to improvement might indeed lie in recruiting rankings. If Terrell Clinkscales, a big former Nebraska commit (who, it bears mentioning, still has to complete a few JUCO classes this summer to qualify) is quickly ready to meet the expectations that come with his four-star recruiting ranking, he could provide a solid upgrade. Combine him with a more experienced Mueller and Britz and get further contributions from sophomore Demonte Hood, and you could see improvement up front.

And if the defensive front can force a few more passing downs, it would do a thin secondary all sorts of favors.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Blake Slaughter	MLB				13	92.5	12.9%	6.5	3.0	1	3	1	0
Jonathan Truman	WLB	5'11, 219	Sr.	NR	13	73.0	10.2%	4.5	0.0	0	1	2	0
Tre Walker	SLB				13	24.0	3.3%	2.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Will Davis	MLB	6'0, 223	So.	3 stars (5.6)	13	15.0	2.1%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Colborn Couchman	LB	6'2, 203	So.	NR	11	9.0	1.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Dakorey Johnson	WLB	6'3, 200	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	8	6.0	0.8%	0.0	0.0	1	0	0	0
Mike Moore	SLB	6'0, 217	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	13	6.0	0.8%	2.0	2.0	0	1	1	0
David Smith	LB	6'0, 230	Sr.	NR
Trent Tanking	WLB	6'2, 220	RSFr.	NR
D'Vonta Derricott	LB	6'0, 225	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)
Isaiah Riddle	LB	6'3, 235	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)
Elijah Lee	LB	6'3, 210	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)
Sam Sizelove	LB	6'3, 230	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Dante Barnett	SS	6'1, 186	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	13	66.0	9.2%	2	0	4	3	0	0
Ty Zimmerman	FS				11	65.0	9.1%	3	0	3	4	1	0
Randall Evans	CB	6'0, 190	Sr.	NR	13	55.5	7.7%	3	1	2	12	1	0
Kip Daily	CB				13	44.0	6.1%	1	0	2	4	0	0
Dorrian Roberts	CB				13	41.0	5.7%	2.5	0	3	8	1	0
Dylan Schellenberg	FS	6'0, 189	Sr.	NR	9	16.0	2.2%	1	0	1	0	0	0
Weston Hiebert	DB	6'0, 193	Sr.	NR	13	8.5	1.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Carl Miles Jr.	DB				10	6.0	0.8%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Travis Green	FS	6'1, 207	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	6	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	1	0
Morgan Burns	CB	5'11, 195	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	12	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Nate Jackson	CB	5'11, 185	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)
Cre Moore	CB	6'0, 175	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Sean Newlan	SS	6'2, 200	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)
Denzel McDaniel	DB	6'1, 205	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)
Jesse Mack	DB	6'0, 180	So.	3 stars (5.5)
Kaleb Prewett	DB	6'2, 195	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)

8. Strength gets weaker

Ty Zimmerman really was a hell of a game changer. He got hurt against TCU, and the defense not only cratered against the Horned Frogs in the second half, but also put up its only shaky full-game performance of the season against Oklahoma the next week (6.5 yards per play, 41 points). His absence certainly isn't encouraging, especially when combined with the loss of corners Kip Daily and Dorrian Roberts.

But with the return of strong safety Dante Barnett and corner Randall Evans (combined: five tackles for loss, six interceptions, 15 break-ups), KSU isn't exactly starting from scratch. If the combination of returning seniors (and former walk-ons) Dylan Schellenberg and Weston Hiebert, redshirt freshmen Cre Moore and Sean Newlan -- alongside JUCOs Denzel McDaniel and Jesse Mack -- can crank out a pair of decent starters, then the secondary could be fine, especially considering it has had a full offseason to deal with the loss of Zimmerman.

Those ifs aren't guaranteed to come to fruition, of course. And if there are any injuries, then the talent pool doesn't appear to be incredibly deep.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Mark Krause			48	41.4	5	19	17	75.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Ian Patterson	5'11, 233	So.	46	60.5	18	1	39.1%
Jack Cantele	6'0, 193	Jr.	37	59.2	8	1	21.6%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Jack Cantele	6'0, 193	Jr.	40-41	7-7	100.0%	4-6	66.7%
Ian Patterson	5'11, 233	So.	12-12	3-3	100.0%	0-2	0.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Tyler Lockett	KR	5'11, 175	Sr.	22	26.5	0
Morgan Burns	KR	5'11, 195	Jr.	5	13.2	0
Tramaine Thompson	PR			12	15.3	0
Tyler Lockett	PR	5'11, 175	Sr.	2	2.0	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	33
Field Goal Efficiency	53
Punt Return Efficiency	11
Kick Return Efficiency	26
Punt Efficiency	77
Kickoff Efficiency	97
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	47

9. Cracks in the field position game

Part of Kansas State's success in 2011-12 came in the realm of special teams. Frank Beamer might have the most grand reputation when it comes to special teams prowess, but Bill Snyder simply doesn't do bad special teams. Despite the high variance that comes with special teams, KSU always ranks well here: 18th in 2009, ninth in 2010, 28th in 2011, first in 2012, 33rd in 2013.

Still, there was slippage last fall, especially in the legs department. Place-kickers Jack Cantele and Ian Patterson were automatic inside 40 yards, but KSU ranked 77th or worse in both Punt and Kickoff Efficiency. The Wildcats need a new punter, and the now-departed Tramaine Thompson was a hell of a punt returner. While it's hard to worry about the unit as a whole, it's doubtful that KSU will be maximizing its field position potential in 2014.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
30-Aug	Stephen F. Austin	NR
6-Sep	at Iowa State	80
18-Sep	Auburn	8
27-Sep	UTEP	118
4-Oct	Texas Tech	46
18-Oct	at Oklahoma	17
25-Oct	Texas	38
1-Nov	Oklahoma State	18
8-Nov	at TCU	31
20-Nov	at West Virginia	71
29-Nov	Kansas	104
6-Dec	at Baylor	14

Five-Year F/+ Rk	10.8% (30)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	52
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	0 / 7.8
TO Luck/Game	-3.0
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	13 (7, 6)

10. Dark horse with a capital D

If KSU isn't bitten hard by the injury bug -- if Jake Waters, Tyler Lockett, and the defensive backfield stay reasonably healthy -- then I fully expect this team to end up back in the F/+ top 20-25 (and tell me you can't see KSU taking down Auburn at home on a Thursday night on national television.) That makes me rather bullish compared to the stat projections, but I can justify it.

That said, the veneer isn't particularly thick. A couple of well-placed injuries and this team will scuffle to play at a top-30 or top-35 level. With Oklahoma, Baylor, and TCU on the road, even a top-20 KSU team would struggle to go better than about 7-2 in conference, and combined with the Auburn game, that probably sets the bar somewhere around eight to nine wins.

Maybe that makes them a dark horse after all.

(But seriously, KSU is so taking down Auburn.)