A week ago, I looked at where this year's top 10 running backs in average draft position rank in fantasy scoring. This week, I'm flipping that: Where were the current top 10 running backs drafted?
I grabbed the top 10 running backs in standard scoring through 10 weeks and checked their average draft position.
Rank | Player | Standard points | Average draft position at RB |
1 | Devonta Freeman | 172 | 40 |
2 | Adrian Peterson | 132 | 2 |
3 | Mark Ingram | 119 | 11 |
4 | Lamar Miller | 118 | 13 |
5 | Chris Ivory | 113 | 23 |
6 | Todd Gurley | 107 | 19 |
7 | Doug Martin | 103 | 34 |
8 | Danny Woodhead | 97 | 38 |
9 | DeMarco Murray | 95 | 7 |
10 | LeGarrette Blount | 93 | 28 |
Before I get to what I wanted to say about this, a few thoughts:
- I knew it had been a great season for Devonta Freeman, but I had no idea he was ahead of the field by that many. He's 40 fantasy points ahead of second place, 53 ahead of third. That's 40 yards per game he has over Adrian Peterson, and Peterson basically had a one-game head start on Freeman, who was behind Tevin Coleman on the depth chart in Week 1.
- My first reaction upon seeing these numbers was a sort of resigned nod. It feels like running-back scoring is down, and through 10 weeks only seven guys have 100-plus fantasy points? That feels low. But I checked it against last year's numbers, and through the same period, nine running backs were at 100-plus. Both seasons have exactly 12 guys at 90-plus, and heck, there are 22 guys with 80-plus fantasy points this year compared to only 16 last year.
- No, where 2015 lags behind 2014 (and, anecdotally, most recent seasons) is at the top end. Freeman at 172 is 40 points ahead of the field, right? Well four different running backs had more than Peterson's 132 at this point last year. So my thought from one bullet point above is sort of correct; running backs aren't scoring at the heights of last year. It's just a much flatter curve, with a lot more relative mediocrity.
And that's the point, really. While the top 10 drafted running backs are all over the map as to their ranking this far into the season, the top 10 at this point in the season were all taken in the top 40 at the position. With the exception of Freeman, I saw arguments for all of those guys in the top 20.
I was wrong about several things this season, But I made the point in the preseason that running back is deeper than normal, that what it lacked at the top end it more than made up for in depth. And that call is just about the most right I've ever been.
We'll see if this holds heading into 2016. But in the preseason, I noted that there were more and more guys who could be trusted in fantasy. The arrival of Gurley and Melvin Gordon. Latavius Murray getting the job to himself. Other guys getting healthy. If the top end isn't as good as the top end normally is, but the next tier is deeper, that means the era of drafting running backs so early, of filling the first round with running backs before looking at much else, might be behind us.
It's one season, and only half of one at that. But it's interesting, especially if it continues in seasons to come. On to our Week 11 running back rankings for standard leagues.
Running backs for standard leagues, Week 11
(DK: Daniel Kelley; DC: Dan Ciarrocchi; AM: Andrew Miller; JD: John Daigle; SK: Scott Kaliska. Cleveland, New Orleans, Pittsburgh and the New York Giants are on bye.)
Rk | Consensus | Tm | Opp. | DK | DC | AM | JD | SK |
1 | Devonta Freeman | ATL | IND | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
2 | Adrian Peterson | MIN | GB | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
3 | Todd Gurley | STL | @BAL | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
4 | Charcandrick West | KC | @SD | 9 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
5 | Chris Ivory | NYJ | @HOU | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
6 | Marshawn Lynch | SEA | SF | 13 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
7 | DeMarco Murray | PHI | TB | 4 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 8 |
8 | LeSean McCoy | BUF | @NE | 5 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 10 |
9 | Lamar Miller | MIA | DAL | 15 | 4 | 13 | 7 | 7 |
10 | Darren McFadden | DAL | @MIA | 10 | 8 | 11 | 9 | 9 |
11 | LeGarrette Blount | NE | BUF | 8 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 11 |
12 | Jeremy Langford | CHI | DEN | 11 | 14 | 6 | 13 | 14 |
13 | Latavius Murray | OAK | @DET | 14 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 12 |
14 | Justin Forsett | BAL | STL | 7 | 16 | 14 | 17 | 17 |
15 | Jonathan Stewart | CAR | WAS | 18 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 13 |
16 | Frank Gore | IND | @ATL | 16 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 16 |
17 | Doug Martin | TB | @PHI | 20 | 13 | 21 | 15 | 15 |
18 | Chris Johnson | ARI | CIN | 12 | 18 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
18 | Danny Woodhead | SD | KC | 17 | 19 | 16 | 19 | 19 |
20 | James Starks | GB | @MIN | 23 | 21 | 19 | 18 | 18 |
21 | T.J.Yeldon | JAC | TEN | 19 | 24 | 18 | 22 | 22 |
22 | Giovani Bernard | CIN | @ARI | 21 | 20 | 24 | 21 | 21 |
23 | Ronnie Hillman | DEN | @CHI | 22 | 25 | 23 | 23 | 25 |
24 | Karlos Williams | BUF | @NE | 25 | 28 | 22 | 25 | 23 |
25 | Jeremy Hill | CIN | @ARI | 27 | 26 | 25 | 26 | 26 |
26 | Matt Jones | WAS | @CAR | 35 | 22 | 27 | 24 | 24 |
27 | Antonio Andrews | TEN | @JAC | 33 | 27 | 28 | 27 | 27 |
28 | Alfred Blue | HOU | NYJ | 24 | 29 | 33 | 29 | 31 |
29 | C.J. Anderson | DEN | @CHI | 30 | 31 | 26 | 33 | 32 |
30 | Joique Bell | DET | OAK | 29 | 30 | 35 | 30 | 30 |
31 | Melvin Gordon | SD | KC | 40 | 23 | 37 | 28 | 28 |
32 | Shaun Draughn | SF | @SEA | 32 | 33 | 30 | 34 | 34 |
33 | Ryan Mathews | PHI | TB | 26 | 32 | -- | 31 | 29 |
34 | Jay Ajayi | MIA | DAL | 31 | 39 | 31 | 36 | 36 |
35 | Andre Ellington | ARI | CIN | 37 | 38 | 29 | 35 | 35 |
35 | Charles Sims | TB | @PHI | 34 | 34 | 41 | 32 | 33 |
37 | Alfred Morris | WAS | @CAR | 39 | 35 | 34 | 37 | 38 |
38 | Theo Riddick | DET | OAK | 38 | 37 | 38 | 38 | 37 |
39 | Eddie Lacy | GB | @MIN | 28 | 36 | -- | 39 | 39 |
40 | Dexter McCluster | TEN | @JAC | 36 | 45 | 32 | 42 | 44 |
41 | Ameer Abdullah | DET | OAK | 44 | 41 | 43 | 40 | 40 |
41 | James White | NE | BUF | 41 | 40 | 42 | 44 | 41 |
43 | Darren Sproles | PHI | TB | 45 | 43 | 39 | 41 | 42 |
44 | Ahmad Bradshaw | IND | @ATL | 42 | 46 | 36 | 45 | 45 |
45 | Chris Thompson | WAS | @CAR | 43 | 44 | 44 | 43 | 43 |
46 | Chris Polk | HOU | NYJ | -- | 47 | 50 | 46 | 46 |
47 | Denard Robinson | JAC | TEN | -- | 42 | -- | 48 | 50 |
48 | Jonathan Grimes | HOU | NYJ | -- | -- | 40 | -- | -- |
49 | Thomas Rawls | SEA | SF | 46 | 50 | -- | 50 | -- |
49 | Ka'Deem Carey | CHI | DEN | 47 | -- | 48 | -- | -- |
-- | Tre Mason | STL | @BAL | -- | -- | 45 | -- | -- |
-- | Brandon Bolden | NE | BUF | 49 | -- | -- | -- | 47 |
-- | Tevin Coleman | ATL | IND | -- | 49 | -- | 49 | 49 |
-- | David Johnson | ARI | CIN | -- | -- | 46 | -- | -- |
-- | Mike Tolbert | CAR | WAS | -- | -- | 49 | -- | 48 |
-- | Kendall Gaskins | SF | @SEA | -- | -- | 47 | -- | -- |
-- | Matt Forte | CHI | DEN | -- | -- | -- | 47 | -- |
-- | Toby Gerhart | JAC | TEN | 48 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
-- | David Cobb | TEN | @JAC | -- | 48 | -- | -- | -- |
-- | Travaris Cadet | SF | @SEA | 50 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
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SB Nation presents: The Vikings are set to cruise past the Packers