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2016 Sugar Bowl advanced stats tale of the tape: Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma State

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Allstate Sugar Bowl

No. 16 Oklahoma State Cowboys (10-2) vs. No. 12 Ole Miss Rebels (9-3)

January 01 ( 8:30 PM ET, ESPN ), Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans
Spread: Ole Miss -6.5
S&P+ Projection: Ole Miss 35.9, Oklahoma State 27.8
Team Sites: Cowboys Ride For Free, Red Cup Rebellion

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

Statistical profiles index.

Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.

The Basics
Category Oklahoma State Ole Miss
S&P+ (Rk) 26 7
Category Oklahoma State offense Ole Miss defense Ole Miss offense Oklahoma State defense
Yards per play (Rk) 6.25 (20) 4.68 (21) 6.70 (7) 5.29 (61)
Yards per game (Rk) 486.8 (19) 387.3 (57) 511.6 (13) 423.9 (95)
Points per possession (Rk) 2.91 (16) 1.63 (28) 2.98 (13) 2.02 (62)
Category Oklahoma State offense Ole Miss defense Ole Miss offense Oklahoma State defense
S&P+ (Rk) 38.8 (18) 20.8 (23) 40.6 (11) 27.1 (58)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk) 85.8 (114) 118.1 (18) 113.7 (23) 105.4 (48)
Passing S&P+ (Rk) 124.6 (15) 110.8 (30) 146.2 (2) 110.4 (32)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) 97.2 (87) 113.8 (24) 129.9 (1) 107.1 (39)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) 137.7 (7) 107.8 (44) 135.0 (9) 112.7 (30)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk) 116.5 (29) 120.8 (21) 150.1 (1) 102.7 (52)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk) 105.2 (60) 122.0 (17) 120.2 (23) 97.9 (79)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk) 113.7 (37) 106.6 (51) 126.8 (14) 120.2 (20)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk) 119.7 (14) 119.2 (18) 124.9 (8) 108.2 (43)
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

* or smallest disadvantages

Oklahoma State

  1. Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 2 defense vs. No. 63 offense)
  2. Passing Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 8 offense vs. No. 66 defense)
  3. Field Position (No. 12 defense vs. No. 64 offense)
  4. Field Position (No. 37 offense vs. No. 76 defense)
  5. Passing Downs S&P+ (No. 7 offense vs. No. 44 defense)

Ole Miss

  1. Rushing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 10 defense vs. No. 111 offense)
  2. Rushing S&P+ (No. 18 defense vs. No. 114 offense)
  3. Adj. Line Yards (No. 30 defense vs. No. 126 offense)
  4. Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 24 defense vs. No. 117 offense)
  5. Standard Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 16 defense vs. No. 102 offense)
Five Factors
Category Oklahoma State offense Ole Miss defense Ole Miss offense Oklahoma State defense
EXPLOSIVENESS 1.38 (17) 1.20 (34) 1.35 (25) 1.29 (85)
EFFICIENCY 43.7% (42) 38.1% (36) 49.9% (6) 40.1% (58)
FIELD POSITION 31.3 (37) 30.2 (76) 30.0 (64) 26.9 (12)
FINISHING DRIVES 5.5 (7) 4.0 (22) 5.4 (13) 5.1 (104)
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED:
Oklahoma State -1.11 (83)
Ole Miss 2.06 (52)
ACTUAL
Oklahoma State 13 (7)
Ole Miss 0 (65)
Offensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Oklahoma State offense Ole Miss offense
Adj. Pace 1.9 (41) 0.7 (53)
Plays per game 77.9 (33) 76.3 (44)
Possessions per game 14.2 (13) 13.5 (39)
Std. Downs Run Rate 52.7% (104) 49.1% (117)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 25.2% (110) 26.2% (106)
% of solo tackles 79.3% (33) 75.8% (53)
Defensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Oklahoma State defense Ole Miss defense
Std. Downs Run Rate 58.5% (80) 55.8% (106)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 38.2% (23) 29.4% (107)
Overall Havoc Rate 15.7% (68) 19.1% (20)
Front 7 Havoc Rate 10.1% (49) 9.7% (62)
DB Havoc Rate 5.5% (92) 9.4% (4)
PD to INC 27.2% (111) 39.6% (13)

When Oklahoma State has the ball…

Standard Downs
Oklahoma State Offense Ole Miss Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 97.2 87 113.8 24 Ole Miss big
Standard Downs Success Rate 45.7 84 42.6 33 Ole Miss big
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.09 66 1.14 31 Ole Miss
SD Line Yards per Carry 2.45 122 2.50 17 Ole Miss big
SD Sack Rate 6.7% 98 3.6% 104
Passing Downs
Oklahoma State Offense Ole Miss Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 137.7 7 107.8 44 Oklahoma State
Passing Downs Success Rate 39.8 7 30.2 61 Oklahoma State big
Passing Downs IsoPPP 2.02 14 1.90 30 Oklahoma State
PD Line Yards per Carry 2.24 124 3.81 121
PD Sack Rate 4.4% 16 8% 49 Oklahoma State

When Ole Miss has the ball…

Standard Downs
Ole Miss Offense Oklahoma State Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 129.9 1 107.1 39 Ole Miss
Standard Downs Success Rate 53.6 13 46.1 61 Ole Miss
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.28 8 1.02 83 Ole Miss big
SD Line Yards per Carry 2.64 105 3.02 88 Oklahoma State
SD Sack Rate 2.4% 19 6.3% 24
Passing Downs
Ole Miss Offense Oklahoma State Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 135.0 9 112.7 30 Ole Miss
Passing Downs Success Rate 40.1 6 26.6 29 Ole Miss
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.58 106 1.63 101
PD Line Yards per Carry 4.58 1 3.36 78 Ole Miss big
PD Sack Rate 7.2% 63 13.9% 2 Oklahoma State big
Individual Passing Stats
Team Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate
Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Oklahoma State Mason Rudolph 6'4, 220 SO 246 393 3591 21 9 62.6% 27 6.4% 8.2
Oklahoma State J.W. Walsh 6'2, 215 SR 48 71 663 13 1 67.6% 0 0.0% 9.3
Oklahoma State Taylor Cornelius 6'6, 190 FR 2 5 8 0 0 40.0% 2 28.6% -1.1
Ole Miss Chad Kelly 6'2, 215 JR 277 425 3740 27 12 65.2% 16 3.6% 8.2
Ole Miss DeVante Kincade 6'0, 184 SO 9 15 79 1 0 60.0% 1 6.3% 4.4
Ole Miss Ryan Buchanan 6'3, 218 SO 8 12 96 2 1 66.7% 0 0.0% 8.0
Individual Rushing Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Opp.
Opp.
Rate
Oklahoma State Chris Carson RB 6'2, 202 JR 121 504 4 4.2 3.1 38.8%
Oklahoma State Rennie Childs RB 5'10, 205 JR 69 282 2 4.1 3.7 39.1%
Oklahoma State J.W. Walsh QB 6'2, 215 SR 67 285 11 4.3 5.2 32.8%
Oklahoma State Raymond Taylor RB 5'8, 195 JR 46 294 4 6.4 6.4 43.5%
Ole Miss Jaylen Walton RB 5'8, 172 SR 134 690 5 5.1 5.5 38.1%
Ole Miss Chad Kelly QB 6'2, 215 JR 82 557 10 6.8 4.7 57.3%
Ole Miss Akeem Judd RB 5'11, 222 JR 71 382 3 5.4 3.9 45.1%
Ole Miss Jordan Wilkins RB 6'1, 214 SO 67 331 3 4.9 5.0 41.8%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.
Individual Receiving Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Yds/
Catch
Yds/
Target
Catch Rate
Oklahoma State James Washington WR 6'0, 200 SO 100 52 970 9 18.7 9.7 52.0%
Oklahoma State David Glidden WR 5'8, 185 SR 77 53 807 3 15.2 10.5 68.8%
Oklahoma State Marcell Ateman WR 6'4, 210 JR 59 40 696 5 17.4 11.8 67.8%
Oklahoma State Brandon Sheperd WR 6'1, 195 SR 39 20 303 3 15.2 7.8 51.3%
Oklahoma State Jhajuan Seales WR 6'2, 198 JR 31 17 312 2 18.4 10.1 54.8%
Oklahoma State Austin Hays WR 6'2, 190 JR 30 22 200 1 9.1 6.7 73.3%
Oklahoma State Jalen McCleskey WR 5'10, 156 FR 28 26 302 4 11.6 10.8 92.9%
Ole Miss Laquon Treadwell WR 6'2, 210 JR 114 77 1094 8 14.2 9.6 67.5%
Ole Miss Damore'ea Stringfellow WR 6'2, 220 SO 58 36 503 5 14.0 8.7 62.1%
Ole Miss Quincy Adeboyejo WR 6'3, 195 JR 53 37 581 7 15.7 11.0 69.8%
Ole Miss Cody Core WR 6'3, 205 SR 51 33 553 3 16.8 10.8 64.7%
Ole Miss Evan Engram TE 6'3, 227 JR 48 32 368 2 11.5 7.7 66.7%
Ole Miss Markell Pack WR 6'2, 193 SO 37 29 370 3 12.8 10.0 78.4%
Ole Miss Jaylen Walton RB 5'8, 172 SR 30 22 166 0 7.6 5.5 73.3%
Individual Defensive Stats
Team Name Pos Ht, Wt Year Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Oklahoma State Jordan Sterns S 6'1, 205 JR 85.5 11.1% 1.5 0.0 2 3 1 0
Oklahoma State Jordan Burton LB 6'3, 215 JR 74.0 9.6% 8.0 2.5 1 0 1 0
Oklahoma State Chad Whitener LB 6'1, 240 SO 72.0 9.4% 7.5 2.0 2 0 1 0
Oklahoma State Tre Flowers S 6'3, 190 SO 66.5 8.7% 2.0 0.0 2 7 1 0
Oklahoma State Seth Jacobs LB 6'2, 225 JR 52.5 6.8% 8.5 1.0 2 1 0 0
Oklahoma State Emmanuel Ogbah DE 6'4, 275 JR 51.0 6.6% 17.5 13.0 0 3 3 0
Oklahoma State Vincent Taylor DT 6'3, 300 SO 37.0 4.8% 7.5 4.0 0 0 0 0
Oklahoma State Kevin Peterson CB 5'11, 190 SR 33.5 4.4% 4.5 0.0 1 6 0 0
Oklahoma State Ashton Lampkin CB 5'11, 185 JR 25.0 3.3% 1.0 0.0 0 5 0 0
Oklahoma State Devante Averette LB 6'0, 230 JR 23.5 3.1% 3.5 2.0 2 0 0 1
Oklahoma State Jimmy Bean DE 6'5, 250 SR 22.5 2.9% 10.5 5.5 0 0 0 0
Oklahoma State Michael Hunter CB 6'0, 191 SR 17.5 2.3% 0.0 0.0 2 1 0 0
Oklahoma State Trace Clark DE 6'4, 257 SR 17.5 2.3% 0.0 0.0 0 1 0 0
Ole Miss DeMarquis Gates LB 6'2, 217 SO 57.5 7.7% 2.0 0.0 0 4 2 0
Ole Miss Mike Hilton DB 5'9, 184 SR 55.5 7.4% 11.0 1.5 2 11 1 0
Ole Miss Trae Elston DB 5'11, 195 SR 54.0 7.2% 4.5 0.0 4 12 0 0
Ole Miss Denzel Nkemdiche LB 5'11, 208 SR 44.5 6.0% 6.5 0.5 0 1 0 0
Ole Miss Marquis Haynes DE 6'3, 220 SO 32.5 4.4% 14.0 9.5 0 2 3 0
Ole Miss Kendarius Webster DB 5'11, 180 SO 31.0 4.2% 3.0 0.0 1 9 0 0
Ole Miss C.J. Johnson LB 6'2, 225 SR 31.0 4.2% 1.5 0.5 2 1 1 1
Ole Miss Tony Bridges DB 6'0, 183 JR 30.5 4.1% 1.0 0.0 3 6 0 0
Ole Miss Channing Ward DE 6'4, 279 SR 26.5 3.5% 6.0 3.0 0 2 1 0
Ole Miss D.J. Jones DT 6'0, 324 JR 26.5 3.5% 4.5 3.0 0 0 1 0
Ole Miss Christian Russell LB 6'0, 232 SR 24.0 3.2% 3.5 0.0 1 0 0 0
Ole Miss Fadol Brown DE 6'4, 280 JR 23.5 3.1% 4.5 1.0 0 0 0 0
Ole Miss Terry Caldwell LB 6'1, 216 JR 23.0 3.1% 2.0 1.0 0 0 1 0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.
Individual Special Teams Stats
Team Punter Ht, Wt Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Oklahoma State Zach Sinor 5'11, 195 FR 63 40.1 3 26 26 82.5%
Ole Miss Will Gleeson 6'3, 197 SO 41 40.5 1 14 9 56.1%
Ole Miss Gary Wunderlich 6'0, 188 SO 7 46.7 0 1 4 71.4%
Team Kicker Ht, Wt Year Kickoffs Avg TB TB% OOB Fair
Catches
Onside
Att
Onside
Success
Oklahoma State Ben Grogan 6'1, 186 JR 87 59.9 22 25.3% 0 2 0 0
Oklahoma State Matt Hockett 6'3, 195 FR 2 68.0 0 0.0% 0 0 1 0
Ole Miss Nathan Noble 6'3, 224 JR 86 64.1 47 54.7% 0 1 1 1
Ole Miss Andy Pappanastos 5'11, 194 SO 1 64.0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0
Team Place-Kicker Ht, Wt Year PAT FG Pct
Oklahoma State Ben Grogan 6'1, 186 JR 59-62 14-18 77.8%
Oklahoma State Matt Hockett 6'3, 195 FR 1-1 0-1 0.0%
Ole Miss Gary Wunderlich 6'0, 188 SO 57-57 17-22 77.3%
Ole Miss Andy Pappanastos 5'11, 194 SO 3-3 0-0 #DIV/0!
Team Kick Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Oklahoma State Jeff Carr 5'7, 168 FR 29 21.5 0 0 1 (0)
Oklahoma State Brandon Sheperd 6'1, 195 SR 5 20.6 0 0 0 (0)
Ole Miss Jaylen Walton 5'8, 172 SR 23 17.3 0 0 2 (1)
Ole Miss Carlos Davis 5'8, 171 JR 3 13.0 0 0 0 (0)
Team Punt Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Oklahoma State Jalen McCleskey 5'10, 156 FR 20 5.4 1 27 4 (1)
Oklahoma State Brandon Sheperd 6'1, 195 SR 1 17.0 0 0 0 (0)
Ole Miss Carlos Davis 5'8, 171 JR 13 5.5 0 9 4 (2)
Ole Miss Collins Moore 6'1, 201 SR 13 1.6 0 10 0 (0)

Stats via SportSource Analytics