The Houston Rockets have a core that we know can rank among the best in the league in the regular season. Houston finished with 54 wins a year ago and 56 wins this season. Most NBA champions finish with at least 55 wins, and there are five teams who hit that mark per year on average. It's a loose break point for determining contenders. Houston can hit that level, even in a season featuring injuries to major players.
Two weeks ago, as the Clippers faced elimination, I argued that teams with this level of success should remain patient so long as remaining at that level is sustainable. It takes a good amount of luck to win a championship. If you remain in the mix for a number of years, the odds of grabbing at least one title grows. The Clippers have three straight years as a contender and reason to believe their success can continue if they pay big to keep DeAndre Jordan. The theory goes that Houston should also stay the course and preserve this core as long as possible.
But there's a wrinkle here. The Clippers have Chris Paul, a noted leader voted to run the players' union by his contemporaries. He's in many ways an idyllic point guard, the cliché'd coach on the floor who leads by example as a defender and unselfish player. The Rockets ... do not have that. They have the brilliant, but untrusted James Harden, and the perennially-maligned Dwight Howard.
Personality-wise, Howard is a bit similar to Blake Griffin, at least as far as we know. Both show immature streaks and a general goofy aloofness typically not associated with reliable leaders. But Griffin has CP3 to lead the charge and an extraordinarily involved coach in Doc Rivers. Howard has Harden, who continues to inspire little confidence, and Kevin McHale, who exists in a very weird place. The regular-season work of both Harden and McHale were worth heralding loudly, yet neither has met that level in the postseason, especially against a Clippers team that should be exhausted after a first-round war and CP3's hamstring injury.
There's something really odd about our perception of Harden. We know why everyone doubts Howard's ability to lead. We've seen it in action. (We've also seen him carry a team to the Finals, but that seems to have been forgotten.) Harden is different. For some reason, the attitude is that he is not real. That his dominance as a scorer and playmaker are tricks, mirages.
Is it because he draws so many free throws and has such a herky jerky style? Is it because his top rival for MVP, Stephen Curry, plays such an aesthetic style? Is it because Harden's playoff performance over the years has been mediocre? Is it because, before this season, he was an atrocious defender? Is it because he seems to exaggerate contact consistently?
Is the concern about Harden real, or is it the same silly stuff that was once thrown at LeBron and CP3 until two weeks ago? They once said Kevin Garnett was a choker who couldn't perform in the playoffs. They once questioned Michael Jordan's worth given his gaudy regular season performance and lack of postseason results. They once called Magic, "Tragic Johnson." The deniers only shut up when you shut them up. For Magic, MJ, Garnett, LeBron and CP3, the talent seemed so undeniable that the harsh critiques were easily couched as just that. Eventually, the stars won the argument.
Can Harden? We go back to Harden's personality and his leadership qualities, or lack thereof. This assessment is so hard because there's no real tangible assessment to make. This leadership trait is intangible.
Ah, that loaded word, swollen with even more meaning given Houston's status as the official basketball team of the quant class. It'd be absurd to argue Rockets GM Daryl Morey completely disregards personality, leadership and maturity when building his team.
It's worth asking, however, if he holds those concerns in lower regard than he should, given the team he has built. It's worth asking whether his model is flawed in its relative lack of emphasis on the human element. That Morey treats players like stocks in a hedge fund is a common critique from a social position. What if that also has strategic implications?
That's the question Houston has to answer this summer, assuming the Rockets don't find miracles in Game 5 and beyond. The Rockets know they can win games with a team built around Harden and Howard. But can they win meaningful, tough games with them? For Morey, this may be more hunch than science.
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