Peyton Manning will start at quarterback for the first time in nine weeks when his Denver Broncos host the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC playoffs on Sunday. He will also try to be on the upside of what has been his bizarre boom-or-bust playoff history over the last nine seasons.
In Manning's last nine trips to the AFC playoffs with the Colts and Broncos, it's been all or nothing for his teams. There have been six one-and-done appearances and three Super Bowl appearances going back to the 2005 season. He's perfect in AFC title games in that span, but has also lost four times in the Divisional round when his team had either the No. 1 or 2 seed.
His AFC playoff record since 2005 is 7-6. Add in the 1-2 record in Super Bowl appearances, and Manning is 8-8 overall in that time. His postseason history suggests that if the Broncos beat the Steelers, they are likely to win the AFC title the next week, regardless of whether they play the Patriots or Chiefs.
I'm starting with 2005, when Manning's team was the No. 1 seed and the conference favorite for the first time in his career. In his six first-game playoff losses since (he missed the 2011 season), his teams have been the 1, 2, 5, 3, 1 and 2 seeds. In his three Super Bowl appearances, they have been the 3, 1 and 1 seeds. The Broncos are the No. 1 seed this season.
Contrary to widespread belief, Manning has not "choked" in these games. His stats as a loser in the AFC playoffs in the last nine seasons are comparable to when he wins, and he has actually thrown more interceptions in the wins. But there has been one constant in all six losses: the games, except for one, have been very close. Four times, the Colts or Broncos led in the fourth quarter. Two games went to overtime. In five of them, reverse one or two plays, and Manning's team moves on.
On the other hand, in his seven AFC playoffs wins, only one was by fewer than seven points: the 38-34 AFC Championship classic against the Patriots in 2006.
Here is a look at Manning's six first-game playoff losses in the AFC since the 2005 season (the Super Bowl is excluded because it has a distinct character separate from conference playoffs).
2005: No. 6 Steelers 21, No. 1 Colts 18
This was the Jerome Bettis fumble game, where Bettis fumbled at the 1-yard line, Nick Harper picked it up and looked like he was going to score before a desperation tackle by Ben Roethlisberger saved the day for the Steelers. In the game's final seconds, Mike Vanderjagt shanked a field goal that would have tied the game and sent it to overtime. Only Blair Walsh's miss this year was as badly kicked.
This easily was Manning's best Colts team, dominant on offense and defense. They started 13-0 and blew out the Steelers 28-10 late in the season. The playoff loss does need some context — in late December, the teenage son of Colts coach Tony Dungy killed himself and the game against the Steelers was the first meaningful game the Colts played since it happened. The Colts played in a fog for three quarters before dominating the fourth quarter and it's impossible to know how much that immense tragedy weighed on the players and coaches.
Manning threw for 290 yards with one touchdown and zero interceptions. But he was sacked five times. "We had protection issues," Manning said later.
2007: No. 4 Chargers 28, No. 2 Colts 24
The Colts and Chargers went back and forth all game, but the Colts took the lead with 10 minutes left on a Manning touchdown pass to Anthony Gonzalez. Everything seemed to be going Indy's way and the Chargers even lost quarterback Philip Rivers to an injury. The Colts defense promptly let backup Billy Volek drive 80 yards for the go-ahead score and the Chargers hung on to win.
Manning threw for 402 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions. Wideout Marvin Harrison had a costly fumble deep in the red zone.
2008: No. 4 Chargers 23, No. 5 Colts 17 (OT)
The Chargers knocked out Manning for the second straight year and once again, the Colts defense could not hold a fourth-quarter lead. The key play, though, was a missed block by a backup tight end that stopped the Colts from converting a third-and-2 and running out the clock up 17-14.
(I attended the game and still get pissed thinking about what jerks Chargers fans were; I wish they would move the team to Mongolia.)
Manning threw for 310 yards, with one touchdown and zero interceptions.
2010: No. 6 Jets 17, No. 3 Colts 16
Same old, same old — Manning gets the Colts a fourth-quarter lead only to see defense and special teams collapse as Mark Sanchez (!) led a drive for a last-second field goal. It was only the second time in playoff history that a team got the lead in the final minute only to lose it (1999 Bills and the Music City Miracle was the other). The goat was Colts coach Jim Caldwell, who called a timeout to stop the clock while the Jets were out of timeouts and scrambling to get a play off. Caldwell must have studied at the Andy Reid school of clock management.
Manning threw for 225 yards with one touchdown and zero interceptions.
2012: No. 4 Ravens 38, No. 1 Broncos 35 (OT)
In Manning's first year with the Broncos, Denver led 35-28 with 43 seconds to go. The Ravens had a third-and-10 from their 30. No way they come back against a top-five defense, right? But then Joe Flacco heaved one up to Jacoby Jones and safety Rahim Moore blew the coverage, allowing a shocking game-tying score. Despite Manning getting the ball back with 31 seconds and two timeouts left, coach John Fox orders him to take a knee. Manning threw a bad interception in double overtime and the Ravens won on a Justin Tucker field goal.
Manning threw for 290 yards with three touchdowns, two interceptions and one lost fumble.
2014: No. 4 Colts 24, No. 2 Broncos 13
This is the only one of the six first-round playoff losses where the game wasn't that close. The Broncos scored first and then were outscored 24-6 the rest of the way. Manning threw for 211 yard with one touchdown and zero interceptions and was ineffective after the first drive. He looked every inch a banged-up, 38-year-old quarterback.
Out of Manning's seven wins in the AFC playoffs since 2005, only one was memorable: the 2006 AFC Championship where the Colts rallied back from 21-3 to beat the Patriots. That was the only win where the game was truly in doubt. In the other six wins, the average margin of victory was 12 points.
Manning's stats have been remarkably similar, win or lose. In his seven wins, he has thrown 11 touchdowns and eight interceptions, averaging 291 yards passing. In the six losses, he's recorded 10 touchdowns and four picks, with 288 yards per game.
Obviously, there were moments in the six losses when Manning failed to lead the offense to a key first down or score, but overall it's been his defenses' inability to hold fourth-quarter leads that has been the single biggest reason his teams have been one-and-done so often. In his only Super Bowl-winning year in 2006, he threw seven interceptions total in the playoffs and Super Bowl. The Colts defense, though, was lights out, allowing only five offensive touchdowns in four games. Who knew football was a team game?
Looking ahead
The matchup with the Steelers this week has a lot of wild cards. Pittsburgh already lost its No. 1 running back, Le'Veon Bell, to an MCL tear earlier this season and now his replacement in the starting lineup, DeAngelo Williams, is likely out with a foot injury. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and top receiver Antonio Brown are also dealing with injuries and their statuses remain uncertain. Without them, the Broncos could start anybody at quarterback and be favored.
On the other side, Manning is also a huge question mark. He will be making his first start in 63 days since a foot injury caused him to melt down against the Chiefs, and he was already playing some of his worst football before that, with nine touchdowns to a whopping 17 interceptions in only nine starts.
In Week 17, he played a quarter and a half against the Chargers after taking over for Brock Osweiler, but it's impossible to tell if he'll be fresh and rested against the Steelers, or rusty and gimpy like he was for most of the season.
If the past is any indication, though, Manning's performance won't matter as much, as long as he doesn't resume being a turnover machine. More important is how the Broncos defense plays. A Manning team has never lost a playoff game when the opponent has scored under 17 points. And this Broncos defense is the top-ranked in the league and especially tough at home.
But if the game is close, history shows that it's the Steelers who are likely to win, since Manning's teams can't catch a break in the fourth quarter of tight playoff games. If the Broncos beat the Steelers, they will win the following week and move on to the Super Bowl.
At least that's what the Peyton Manning boom-or-bust theory says. And it hasn't been wrong in the last 10 years.
Jim Buzinski is co-founder of SBNation's Outsports.com. He has also watched every Peyton Manning playoff game and still has nightmares over some of them.
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