NFL picks 2016, Week 3: Experts see big wins for the Packers and Panthers

The best piece of advice I ever received as a youngster was from my grandmother. It's a simple premise, too, simple enough to be portable to nearly any experience in life.

"Don't be a turd."

When we tallied up the scores from last week's panel picks, for Week 2, I saw that I ran the table, going 13-3. My picks were straight fire. A few minutes after some fist pumps and my third or fourth "awww yeah," I heard my grandmother's words. It's very unlikely that I'll pick a week's games with such aplomb. From now on, I'll stew and second guess my pick every other match.

I was a turd ... but for one glorious week, I was the turd who correctly picked the winners in 13 of 16 games.

I'm surprised to see nobody picked the Falcons. Matt Ryan and Co. scored 35 points in a road win against the Raiders. The Saints don't have much of a defense, so you can probably expect a shootout. Probably best not to pick against Drew Brees in that situation, especially when Kyle Shanahan is calling the plays for the other team. Plus, Dan Quinn's Falcons have yet to win a game in the Superdome (or very many other places, to be honest).

The Bears and the Browns have been left for dead, and for good reason. Cleveland is going with Cody Kessler at quarterback, with Clipboard Jesus backing him up. Chicago doesn't have Jay Cutler. Not that either team would be very good even with their starting quarterbacks. But they're officially two of those teams you can reliably pick against any week.

A few panelists are going with Carson Wentz and the Eagles to beat the Steelers. I'm as impressed by anyone with what Wentz has done so far this season against the Browns and Bears. That's a bold move to pick them against a Steelers team that just steamrolled the Bengals and held them to 16 points.

I was one of only three panelists picking the Rams to beat the Seahawks last week. In his four previous years coaching the Rams, that's the one game Jeff Fisher actually seems to have a plan to win. Nobody is picking them to win this week against Tampa Bay.

Not many are picking the Packers to lose to the Lions in Green Bay. That's probably smart. Then again, the Packers have not looked very good so far this season.

As a reminder, because we do our picks so early in the week, our panel gets the chance to make a couple re-picks on Thursday based on late developments. So check back Friday to see if there have been any changes.

(* indicates a re-pick)