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NFL picks against the spread 2017, Week 11: Good bets on crappy games

The Falcons and Packers look like great underdog picks this week. And what about the Eagles vs. Cowboys game?

NFL: Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

This is a pretty tough week to pick games. For two reasons.

First, there are actually some games between good, evenly matched teams, including what just might be the best game of the week, the Rams at the Vikings. Both teams boast a top-flight defense, surprisingly explosive offenses and a rightful spot in the upper echelon of NFC teams.

And then there are games between two terrible teams. Who’s not looking forward to a thrilling matchup between Blaine Gabbert and Tom Savage! And don’t forget the Brock Osweiler versus Andy Dalton affair in Denver. At least Dalton is the same QB the Bengals started the season with, for some reason.

Get hype!

Same rules as usual. Home teams are in all caps. Odds information comes to us via the good people at OddsShark.

Obvious picks

Jaguars (-7.5) over BROWNS

The only question here is whether or not the Jags defense really can pitch a shutout against the Browns.

Chiefs (-10.5) over GIANTS

As bad as the Giants are — and they are TERRIBLE — if they had Odell Beckham this week, I’d think they would actually have a chance against the Chiefs’ pass defense, which is Kansas City’s Achilles heel. But they don’t. They have a bunch of veterans who may or may not have quit on head coach Ben McAdoo. That, and a whole bunch of other problems that are likely to result in the whole damn team getting blown up after the season.

Patriots (-7) over Raiders

I had such high hopes for the Raiders this year. And maybe they can still pull it together. The AFC is not very good, so every mediocre team has a chance. That fact also means the Patriots, in a year where they started off looking vulnerable, once again get an easy path to a first-round bye in the playoffs. It’s not the Patriots’ fault everyone hates them. It’s every other team’s fault because they’re just not as good.

Crappy teams, crappy picks

Cardinals (+2.5) over TEXANS

Bruce Arians thinks that Blaine Gabbert is a victim of circumstance, a guy who just never got a chance because he was always on “shitty teams.” Well, he’s still on a shitty team. I’m just betting on Arians’ motivational skills to propel the Cardinals to be the least shittiest team in this one.

PACKERS (+2) over Ravens

I honestly don’t know what to expect from either of these teams, so I’ll take the Packers with home-field advantage.

CHARGERS (-6) over Bills

The Nathan Peterman era begins this week! I’m not optimistic.

Lions (-3) over BEARS

DOLPHINS (even) over Buccaneers

BRONCOS (-2.5) over Bengals

Actual good games and tough picks

SAINTS (-7.5) over Washington

This will be eight in a row for the Saints, and I think it’s a lock that they win. I’m taking them to cover, which is no easy sell for a lot of bettors, because if Washington does somehow manage to bottle up their running game, Drew Brees is at home in the dome where he can sling it.

VIKINGS (-2.5) over Rams

Again, a true toss up. I’m taking the Vikings just because they’re the home team here.

Eagles (-4.5) over COWBOYS

Tyron Smith is probably out again this week, so that does not bode well for Dak Prescott. However, I would expect the Cowboys to at least throw a little help his way, some chip blocks and such. Still, the Eagles are going to feast on the Cowboys.

Falcons (+1.5) over SEAHAWKS

Kam Chancellor is out for the season, and he’ll be missed. Field Gulls took a very thorough look at why he’s such an important part of the defense. Oh, Richard Sherman is out too, so the Legion of Boom is down to Earl Thomas, who’s probably playing this week. The bottom line here is that the Seahawks defense is shorthanded enough that even Steve Sarkisian’s sleepy offense can have its way against Seattle.

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