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When something bad happens to the Cardinals, there are millions and millions of baseball fans who experience cardinalfreude. It’s obvious and unavoidable most of the time. The Cardinals get sucked into a dumb and serious hacking scandal? Kinda funny. A preseason projection has them way below .500? Kinda funny. Cardinals fans should note this is all rooted in their seemingly eternal success, so there’s no reason to push back against it. Wear it like Pete Rose wore the boos. Your team is doing something right.
Except for that thing they did that was wrong and got them punished.
See? Kinda funny, and I can’t help myself. It’s fun to needle the Cardinals and their fans, and I’d like to think that for every fan who gets annoyed, there are 10 fans who wear it like a badge of honor.
The injury to Alex Reyes, of course, doesn’t fall into this category. He was one of the brightest arms in baseball, a gift from the rosin-sticky gods. Even if you have a lot of fun disliking the Cardinals, you had more fun watching this guy pump 100 mph fastballs by the best hitters in the world, even as you wished he were on another team. The world makes a half-dozen arms like this at a time, and they’re ultra-rare minerals that should be kept behind a glass case.
The loss of Reyes for a season is a loss for baseball. Cardinals fans specifically, but it stinks all around.
We’re not here to argue that. My job today is to do something different, something unexpected. I’m here to argue that of all the teams in baseball, the Cardinals deserve a unique brand of sympathy. This isn’t just a team losing one of its best young pitchers right before the season starts, which is horrific, regardless of the team. This is a team that loses one of its best pitchers every year.
Every. Year.
No team should have to deal with this, and yet the Cardinals have come through these unforeseen quicksand pits with division titles, 100-win seasons, and even a championship. Part of the reason, again, that cardinalfreude can be so amusing is that they won’t stop winning. There’s always a Stephen Piscotty. When the old Allen Craig breaks down, they send him into the shop and rebrand him “Randal Grichuk.” They’ll do the same thing with the new model.
That doesn’t mean it isn’t unfathomably terrible for a single team to lose one of its best pitchers every year.
Every danged year, y’all. The only things the Cardinals can count on are a) being good and b) losing a pitcher they’re counting on.
How far back does this stretch? This is year seven. A recount:
2011 - Adam Wainwright
What he did the year before
Finished second in the Cy Young voting, winning 20 games with a 2.42 ERA. It was his second consecutive Cy Young-caliber season.
When was he hurt?
February 24th, riiiiiiight when fans were really starting to get excited for the new season.
How did the Cardinals replace him?
Made do with Jake Westbrook and Edwin Jackson, neither of whom finished second in the Cy Young voting (link).
How successful was the team?
They won the World Series. That is one neat sleight of hand, losing your best pitcher and winning a championship anyway.
2012 - Chris Carpenter
What he did the year before
Threw 237 innings in the regular season and 36 in the postseason, leading the rotation and making three solid starts to help the Cardinals over the Rangers in the World Series.
When was he hurt?
March 9, riiiiiiiight when fans were really starting to get excited for the new season. Now, it’s worth noting that Carpenter was going to be 37, so it’s not like this was a pitcher-bites-dog headline at the time. That doesn’t mean that it didn’t a) stink and b) totally mess with the team’s plans.
How did the Cardinals replace him?
With a magic Kyle Lohse and a couple homegrown pitchers.
How successful was the team?
They won the wild card and made it to the NLCS. As they do.
2013 - Jaime Garcia
What he did the year before
Helped stabilize the post-Carpenter rotation, throwing 20 starts with a 2.97 FIP. He made just one start in the 2012 NLDS before being shut down for the year.
When was he hurt?
In 2012, originally (see above), but he came back and made a few starts before tearing up his shoulder in May. This is the weakest entry of the bunch, as there were reasons to expect an injury, and it didn’t come right when Cardinals fans had an inordinate amount of preseason expectations and hope. But it still stung.
How did the Cardinals replace him?
Michael Wacha emerged from the draft on a flaming motorcycle and drove straight to Busch Stadium. Metaphorically. He stopped off for a hamburger along the way, but he didn’t dilly-dally.
How successful was the team?
They won 97 games and the pennant. Most pennant-winning teams deal with an injury as costly as this one, so this is included for continuity’s sake.
2014 - Michael Wacha
What he did the year before
See above. He was a rookie thunderbolt who was just a year away from playing hacky sack on the quad, which is what I’m pretty sure college kids are still doing these days. He was an obvious talent who pitched beyond his years, and he was a gift.
When was he hurt?
In the middle of the season, riiiiiight when the Cardinals were used to their new ace.
How did the Cardinals replace him?
They traded for John Lackey, who made faces and yelled a lot.
How successful was the team?
They made the NLCS again. Wacha was oddly kept in a glass case instead of used in September and October. When the case was broken and Wacha was dusted off after, it was in a do-or-die situation. It might have been the most unfair position I’ve ever seen a pitcher put in, other than maybe Brent Mayne.
2015 - Adam Wainwright
What he did the year before
Finished third in the Cy Young voting. For someone who might fall off the first ballot, Wainwright has sure had a lot of Hall of Fame seasons.
When was he hurt?
In April, riiiiight when Cardinals fans were settling into the new season and enjoying a team off to the best start in baseball.
I guess this section does nothing but point out that it’s never a good time to lose a starting pitcher for the season, but it’s not like I’m going to start self-editing now.
How did the Cardinals replace him?
With Carlos Martinez, a surprisingly healthy and effective Jaime Garcia, and different blood runes.
How successful was the team?
They won 100 games, which is, again, mighty impressive for a team that lost its best freaking pitcher. It’s worth noting that Wainwright came back and pitched 5⅔ scoreless innings in the NLDS.
2016 - Lance Lynn
What he did the year before
He was maybe the best pitcher on a team that won 100 games, throwing more than 200 innings for the second season in a row, with a 133 ERA+ and 2.74 ERA.
When was he hurt?
About two weeks after the World Series, riiiiiiight when fans were getting excited for the hot stove league.
How did the Cardinals replace him?
With an expensive Mike Leake. This is the first time they had the benefit of an entire offseason to fix the hole left by the broken pitcher. Maybe that wasn’t a good thing.
How successful was the team?
They ... didn’t make the postseason? The heck, let me see that.
No, it’s true. Last year was the first time an injury to a key rotation cog really fouled up their plans to make the postseason. They had injuries that hurt their chances of winning the World Series in previous years, sure, but this was the first time their replacement wasn’t good enough to get them into the postseason in the first place.
Which brings us to Alex Reyes, who gave the Cardinals five blistering starts last year and an ocean of promise. Let’s watch him make a bunch of hitters look silly when they’re expecting a hard fastball:
Instead of watching that all year, the Cardinals will have to make do. And they’ll do it the only way they know how: by cobbling together five starters who probably should have been in a major league rotation in the first place. Carlos Martinez, Adam Wainwright, Mike Leake, Lance Lynn, and Michael Wacha are five pitchers with a history of success, even if there wasn’t much of it in 2016, and history has taught me to take the over on expectations for Cardinals pitching.
Every year, though. Every danged year. It’s fun to poke fun at the Cardinals, just like it’s fun for them to poke back with their success. But take just one second out of your day to think about how deflating it is to expect the fun that comes with watching an excellent starting pitcher, only to have it ripped away in a single newsflash. It is one of the worst parts of being a sports fan, and there isn’t much that’s close.
The Cardinals have to deal with that feeling annually. That doesn’t mean you can’t hate them when they’re back in the NLCS. It just means that you shouldn’t feel weak when you feel sympathy for them after their annual rotation surprise. It’s perfectly understandable. They have a weird, unfortunate, and horrible tradition, and it makes me feel worse for them every season.